aminobwana
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News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 6:49 am

As what Boeing will decide to do regarding this submodel of the B787 and its eventual Derivatives is very important for
the Airlines and their selection of the B787 generally, I propose to include here this topic, between other the upcoming news regarding this issue coming from ER, BA and QF

Pls. see URL
[url] http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20070718/BLOG01/70718006 [/url]
Emirates seeks guarantee from Boeing for 787-10
July 18, 2007

aminobwana
 
aminobwana
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 7:10 am

STITCH

As you told me, there is not much meat in the article and basically we knew about these negotaitions.

I think that the text written below the photo is more important than the main one

Quote:
Emirates wants Boeing's word the plane manufacturer will build a bigger version of the 787 it unveiled July 8 in Everett.

This obviously refers to converstions a few days ago and even, knowing how EK negotiates, does not indicate anything definitive, shows that what I wrote a few days ago, that Boeing, even if they still do not launch the probably strongly modified B7810 (or-11), must assure the customers they will do so.

regards

aminobwana
 
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Stitch
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 7:13 am

Well once Boeing has a definition that meets at least the plurality of their customer's needs, if not the majority, they will do so.

Whether or not it will meet EK's and QF's needs...
 
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keesje
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 7:21 am

Boeing has been promising to launch the Boeing 787-10 for almost 2 years now.

I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market, either we can do it or we can´t.

Airlines should not be played games with. It´s about vision & leadership.

Boeing stop Stumbling and Mumbling. I think this is Boeings order to lose.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...ates-pushes-boeing-on-787-10x.html

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
aminobwana
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 7:32 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Well once Boeing has a definition that meets at least the plurality of their customer's needs, if not the majority, they will do so.

Whether or not it will meet EK's and QF's needs...

Obviously. But as at this moment they are discussing potential orders which probably will be issued very soon not only with EK, but with BA, QF and possibly with AF, LH, IFLC, GECAS. Boeing has all the imput they need for a basic definition.
As you say, if satisfactory for all of them we do not know.

If I would be Boeing, I would hear not so much what EK, but what the other named have to say, as orders by them are to be expected to be completed, in the case of EK, should their expantion hub concept fail, there is a large risk not so much of cancellatiion, but strong reduction.
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:09 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Boeing has been promising to launch the Boeing 787-10 for almost 2 years now. I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market, either we can do it or we can´t. Airlines should not be played games with. It´s about vision & leadership.

Where's the A322? A330-400? A350-1100? A380-900?

Come on Airbus, it's just a simple stretch!  sarcastic   Wink


If it was easy, Keesje, you'd think Boeing would have done it, don't you?

Even if Boeing could get 400 passengers and 20,000nm out of it right now, they're not in a position to launch it with the demand for the 787-8 and 787-9 already taking up so much production capacity.

I honestly don't think Boeing is trying to string airlines along.

In addition to just getting the plane defined, they then need to figure out when they can make it available to customers. I am sure EK and QF would love a 787-10 that carried 320 passengers 9000nm, but if they can't get it before 2020 because the production line is filled up with 787-8s and 787-9s, then the A350-900 just might be "good enough".

It will happen. It may happen in two stages, a few years apart, but it will happen.

And that airlines keep putting pressure on Boeing to do so makes me think that is what Boeing is telling the airlines...
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:33 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Boeing has been promising to launch the Boeing 787-10 for almost 2 years now.

I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market, either we can do it or we can´t.

Airlines should not be played games with. It´s about vision & leadership.

Boeing stop Stumbling and Mumbling. I think this is Boeings order to lose.

The airlines are patient. They've showed how patient they can be while waiting for Airbus to come up with a final A350 over the past few years.
Please explain to me how Boeing is overpromising and not being fair to the market?
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:40 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Boeing has been promising to launch the Boeing 787-10 for almost 2 years now.

I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market, either we can do it or we can´t.

Boeing already has plenty on its plate with the 787-8 & 787-9 plus the development of the 747-8 series. If anything, Boeing is underpromising. It is not taking on work that might screw up the 8 & 9. Mr. Clark has been dangling that 100 frame order in front of both Airbus and Boeing for a very long time. If it was easy, or a sure thing in Boeing's mind, I am sure that they would jump on it.  Yeah sure
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 8:58 am

IMO 2 things behind the 787-10 delay

1. Seeing how the engine situation pans out
2. Waiting for the final 350-1000 to be locked in, so they can offer better. (Airbus will be trying not to oblige)

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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:02 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Boeing has been promising to launch the Boeing 787-10 for almost 2 years now

I must have missed where middle of 2005 Boeing was even hinting publicly that the 787-10 was possible, much less "IS going to be offered"

[Edited 2007-07-19 02:02:57]
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:07 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Boeing has been promising to launch the Boeing 787-10 for almost 2 years now.

I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market, either we can do it or we can´t.

Airlines should not be played games with. It´s about vision & leadership.

Boeing stop Stumbling and Mumbling. I think this is Boeings order to lose.

The way I see it is that until they know they can commit to increasing production capacity for the 787 as a whole, there is no reason to launch the larger version of the 787. They are sold out through 2014-15 and orders are still rolling in. Without increased capacity to build, by launching the 787-10, they only canabalize smaller 787 production slots.

I think we will hear more about a launch after production snags are under control in 2008 or 09. There will be plenty of time to launch the -10 and still beat the A350 to EIS imo. So why not be conservative while you are in the driver seat.

HOBO
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:27 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):

I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market,

 rotfl ...Keesje, you are too funny sometimes... Smile
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:41 am

Quoting Azhobo (Reply 10):
The way I see it is that until they know they can commit to increasing production capacity for the 787 as a whole, there is no reason to launch the larger version of the 787

Unless the increased profit margin on the 1000 can more than offset the development cost.
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:44 am

Quoting JustPlaneNutz (Reply 12):
Unless the increased profit margin on the 1000 can more than offset the development cost.

Yeah I thought about it, but would have to be huge compared to what makes sense. And dont forget the launch birds of the -10 will still have nice discounts.


They have plenty of time to launch. No need to jump on the EK bandwagon cause they want them too..

HOBO
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:53 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Boeing stop Stumbling and Mumbling.

So Airbus has been charging forward with the A350 since it was first announced?  sarcastic 

I getting old so my memory is slipping , IIRC didn't the Busfolks have a problem with "stumbling & mumbling" with that BIG plane they started building a few years ago?  scratchchin 
Maybe you have your companies mixed up?
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 9:55 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Boeing has been promising to launch the Boeing 787-10 for almost 2 years now.

And meanwhile the model that you said was too small has been swallowing up production capacity for well beyond dates Boeing previously mentioned as possible dates for EIS.

Quote:
I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market, either we can do it or we can´t.

Perhaps Boeing has a higher standard, which requires them to say how they will do it with far more detail than Airbus does when they start asking for orders. And they will know more about what they need to do after they get test data from the 787. If range is greater than anticipated and opportunities for weight reduction present themselves, they may need to make fewer modifications to the platform to get the -10.

Quote:
Airlines should not be played games with. It´s about vision & leadership.

It's also about execution and not pretending you are capable of doing something that you really aren't.

Quote:
Boeing stop Stumbling and Mumbling. I think this is Boeings order to lose

The thing is Boeing should be able to launch a -10 today, and have it on the market by the end of 2011. They could launch it at -8 EIS and have it ready by the middle of 2012. The problem is they would have to boost production rates to be able to actually deliver them.

Quoting Blsbls99 (Reply 6):
They've showed how patient they can be while waiting for Airbus to come up with a final A350 over the past few years.



Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 8):

2. Waiting for the final 350-1000 to be locked in, so they can offer better. (Airbus will be trying not to oblige)

The 787-10 should be closer to the A350-900 in capacity.
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aminobwana
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Thu Jul 19, 2007 10:36 pm

The following URL gives a more complete picture of the stated in the Thread starter
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/324247_emiratesboeing19.html
Emirates seeks Boeing guarantee of bigger 787
extract:

Quote:
Boeing is not yet building a larger version, the 787-10, because only Emirates and Qantas Airways Ltd. have demanded it, he said.

Comment: this statement by Mr. FLANAGAN / EK, is a fact which is changing rapidly, as Boeing is now discussing the same issue between other with BA and as far as we know, with IFLC and GECAS. And obviously, one reason Flanagan didn/t state here was that the are waiting for the affirmed specs for the A3510.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
Even if Boeing could get 400 passengers and 20,000nm out of it right now, they're not in a position to launch it with the demand for the 787-8 and 787-9 already taking up so much production capacity.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
am sure EK and QF would love a 787-10 that carried 320 passengers 9000nm, but if they can't get it before 2020 because the production line is filled up with 787-8s and 787-9s, then the A350-900 just might be "good enough

Above must be seen in the context that Boeing without doubt, even if being careful not to build up to much capacity at their own and the providers, will increase their production if necessary. It shall not be assumed that they will maintain a constant production whichever the demand will be !! The following figures for B787 deliveries in case of continuing high demand were already suggested:
* 200 frames until mid 2010
* 140 frames more until mid 2011 (~ 11.5 per months)
* 150 frames more until mid 2012 (~ 12.5 per month)
* 170 frames more until mid 2013 (~ 13.0 per month)
* 180 frames from mid 2013 on, now including the B7810X (~15.0 per month

which is much more conservative as the announcement by Airbus that they intend to build 15 A350 a month after year 2 after EIS (!!?) Big grin

If so, Boeing could deliver 1,200 Frames until mid 2016 !!

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 7):
Boeing already has plenty on its plate with the 787-8 & 787-9 plus the development of the 747-8 series

Really, from the point of view of the design teams, IMO this is less than until now, when the basic B78-8-9 were less defined, more so because Boeing is not restricted by cash considerations. So there is room to add the Y1 !

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 8):
IMO 2 things behind the 787-10 delay
1. Seeing how the engine situation pans out
2. Waiting for the final 350-1000 to be locked in, so they can offer better. (Airbus will be trying not to oblige)

Agreed, but I am not sure to understand the remark regarding Airbus !

regards

aminobwana
 
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keesje
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 12:47 am

Quoting Blsbls99 (Reply 6):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Boeing has been promising to launch the Boeing 787-10 for almost 2 years now.

I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market, either we can do it or we can´t.

Airlines should not be played games with. It´s about vision & leadership.

Boeing stop Stumbling and Mumbling. I think this is Boeings order to lose.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
Come on Airbus, it's just a simple stretch!



Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 7):
If it was easy, or a sure thing in Boeing's mind, I am sure that they would jump on it.



Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 9):
must have missed where middle of 2005 Boeing was even hinting publicly that the 787-10 was possible



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
...Keesje, you are too funny sometimes...



Quoting Nitrohelper (Reply 14):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Boeing stop Stumbling and Mumbling.

So Airbus has been charging forward with the A350 since it was first announced?



Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 15):
Quote:
I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market, either we can do it or we can´t.

Perhaps Boeing has a higher standard,

 Big grin  eyebrow   fluffy   idea   rotfl   scratchchin   stirthepot   wave 

Come on folks a little humor seems only Jacobin noticed, accept the the "moral high ground" cream pie flies the other direction sometimes..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Stitch
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:08 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 17):
Come on folks a little humor seems only Jacobin noticed, accept the the "moral high ground" cream pie flies the other direction sometimes..

Sometimes the same joke, told over and over again, eventually no longer remains funny...Just ask A380 fans...

 wave 
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:27 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Boeing has been promising to launch the Boeing 787-10 for almost 2 years now.
I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market, either we can do it or we can´t.

What they say publicly, and what they say to airlines are two very different things, but even so...

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 8):
1. Seeing how the engine situation pans out
2. Waiting for the final 350-1000 to be locked in, so they can offer better. (Airbus will be trying not to oblige)

Exactly. If they spill the beans about the 787-10, they've given Airbus all the time they need to combat it.

Right now, they have their plate full with the 600+ orders. Also, by waiting for Airbus to finalize their configuration, they can be in the best position to offer something better than the A350. The one thing Boeing can least afford is to screw up on the 787-8 and 787-9.

I promise you, if Boeing stood to gain by launching a 787-10 now, they'd do it.

I'd like to know if all this stalling is so bad, why hasn't Qantas and Emirates just gone ahead with the A350?
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:55 am

Quoting Azhobo (Reply 10):
The way I see it is that until they know they can commit to increasing production capacity for the 787 as a whole, there is no reason to launch the larger version of the 787. They are sold out through 2014-15 and orders are still rolling in. Without increased capacity to build, by launching the 787-10, they only canabalize smaller 787 production slots.

I think we will hear more about a launch after production snags are under control in 2008 or 09. There will be plenty of time to launch the -10 and still beat the A350 to EIS imo. So why not be conservative while you are in the driver seat.

This makes a lot of sense to me. We've been hearing for some time now that Boeing is considering a second production line. Might be they could use the second line for the new -10 "if" there is a big enough demand for it. Now, here's another question: Might it be to Boeing's advantage to create a second line for the -3, -8 and -9 and then go a third production line if there's enough of a demand for the -10? What does the -10 have to offer that would create a near immediate demand for it to begin with?
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LuisKMIA
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:57 am

I'm sure Boeing will deliver I reported the following in a previous post:


ATWOnline has further information on the pressure some airlines are puting on Boeing to developed improved versions of the 787.

They especially want a 787-10 with the 8,500 nm range of the 787-9 and 50 more passengers. I think this would be a 777-200 killer, but at the same time the first flight would be over 20 years after the debut of the original 777.

The article also mentions a desire for a 787-8 capable of doing the London-Sydney run, which the 777LR can only do eastbound and seasonally westbound with weight restrictions.

Finally, it looks like Emirates will make its 100-aircraft order announcement at the Dubai airshow, when Boeing should have the -10 firmed up.

Here is the link to the story:
http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=9486

Luis KMIA
 
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Stitch
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:07 am

A 787-8LR with 10,000nm nominal range should be doable within the 270t MTOW of the 787-9 or the 280t MTOW of the current undercarriage.

A 787-10 with 8500nm range would put it ahead of the A350-900, which has been revised downwards to 8100nm as of Airbus' last update. However, that will require an MTOW greater then 280t which means new undercarriage and a new wingbox and new engines and revised wingtip extensions.

And as Airbus showed going from the A350 to the A350XWB, that is not something one just "does" over a long weekend...
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:16 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
Where's the A322?


Open to interpretation?

View Large View Medium
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Photo © Carlos Aleman - SJU Aviation Photography
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Photo © Miguel Nobrega - Madeira Spotters





[Edited 2007-07-19 20:17:19]
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:28 am

Quoting Birdbrainz (Reply 19):
Exactly. If they spill the beans about the 787-10, they've given Airbus all the time they need to combat it.

[quote=Birdbrainz,reply=19]Right now, they have their plate full with the 600+ orders.

 checkmark  Very true about the 787-10. Don't spill your beans just yet Boeing!!!
Actually I believe it's over 700 orders now  highfive   hyper  (though I could be wrong)
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:38 am

Quoting Azhobo (Reply 10):
The way I see it is that until they know they can commit to increasing production capacity for the 787 as a whole, there is no reason to launch the larger version of the 787. They are sold out through 2014-15 and orders are still rolling in. Without increased capacity to build, by launching the 787-10, they only canabalize smaller 787 production slots.

Based on current 787 production schedules the airlines will not sit back and wait for B787-10 while production capacity is taken up by more B788/9 orders.

Quoting Azhobo (Reply 10):

I think we will hear more about a launch after production snags are under control in 2008 or 09. There will be plenty of time to launch the -10 and still beat the A350 to EIS imo. So why not be conservative while you are in the driver seat.

2008/9 is at least a year too late for Boeing unless they announce a B787-10 specific production line as well. The problem with sub-contracting all of your production and basically doing nothing more than assembling your design is that you are reliant on the production capacities of your sub-contractors.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 15):
It's also about execution and not pretending you are capable of doing something that you really aren't.

 checkmark  Very sensible but we have yet to hear a definitive answer from Boeing themselves.

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 24):
checkmark Very true about the 787-10. Don't spill your beans just yet Boeing!!!
Actually I believe it's over 700 orders now highfive hyper (though I could be wrong)

If they don't spill the beans by September this year, they'd be as well re-planting them and growing a new stalk. EK, QF and BA all plan to announce this year. IMO at the very least Boeing needs to tie GE down to firm up an engine and Alenia etc to boost production. If they're having to request production increases this early in the program they must be doing something right, it has to be said.
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Stitch
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 4:16 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 23):
Open to interpretation?

Probably should have said A322-100, shouldn't I? Big grin

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 25):
Based on current 787 production schedules the airlines will not sit back and wait for B787-10 while production capacity is taken up by more B788/9 orders.

True, but as Airbus converts old A350 orders and MoUs and lands new ones, that pushes availability for "late-coming" airlines like EK and QF back farther, as well.

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 25):
The problem with sub-contracting all of your production and basically doing nothing more than assembling your design is that you are reliant on the production capacities of your sub-contractors.

And yet, those subcontractors may be more efficient and quicker then doing it all in-house, which allows one to produce more units per given period of time.
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 4:23 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
Probably should have said A322-100, shouldn't I? Big grin



Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
True, but as Airbus converts old A350 orders and MoUs and lands new ones, that pushes availability for "late-coming" airlines like EK and QF back farther, as well.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
And yet, those subcontractors may be more efficient and quicker then doing it all in-house, which allows one to produce more units per given period of time.

True on both counts although the premise sort of relies on all of the subcontractors being able to achieve the same production rate increase. Do you agree that its in Boeing's interest to make a firm announcement sooner rather than later with 3 impending large orders in this sector though?

[Edited 2007-07-19 21:24:15]
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DAYflyer
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 4:27 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market, either we can do it or we can´t.

Thats the pot calling the kettle black now, isn't it...after only 2 years of Airbus being late with the A-380.....
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osiris30
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 4:53 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Boeing has been promising to launch the Boeing 787-10 for almost 2 years now.

I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market, either we can do it or we can�t.

Airlines should not be played games with. It�s about vision & leadership.

Boeing stop Stumbling and Mumbling. I think this is Boeings order to lose.

Well unlike your creation of aircraft, Boeing actually has some work to do to get an aircraft out to airlines... they simply can't dream up some ugly aircraft that will never work and call it done.

I also find this statement particularly ironic coming from you.. Boeing has been promising to launch the 787-10 for 2 years and Airbus has been trying to DELIVER a 380 for 2 years.. interesting parallel.. I'm guessing by the time the first 380 is delivered the 787-10 will be launched.

Boeing has clearly stated reasons for delaying the 787-10 launch. Including the fact they aren't sure their suppliers could deal with even MORE orders for the 787 family at this point in time. A problem for Boeing, you bet.. but a nice one to have.
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 5:04 am

Leaving aside the various performance and weight issues, as important as they are, I'm wondering if there is a psychological battle on here. Clearly, whatever aircraft any of these airlines order, it is important for them to KNOW that both are available; i.e. when EK talks to Airbus, it is VERY important - from a negotiation standpoint - that Airbus/EK know that Boeing has a plausible alternative.

So, in responding to EK, it's important that it does so in such a manner that avoids the 787-10 merely being used as "the alternative" to get Airbus to force its price down. I know EK has been very strong over the last two years in getting Boeing to launch the -10, but I think we do need to recognise that all airlines interested in both products have an interest in seeing both available, regardless of what choice they make; this clearly runs counter to the wish of both manufacturers to see the other guy's product before they launch?!

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ua76heavy
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 5:06 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Boeing has been promising to launch the Boeing 787-10 for almost 2 years now.

I think they should stop overpromising & be fair to the market, either we can do it or we can´t.

Airlines should not be played games with. It´s about vision & leadership.

Boeing stop Stumbling and Mumbling. I think this is Boeings order to lose.

An AW&ST article that appeared several months ago mentioned Boeing is working with GE and RR on engines that will provide enough thrust for the -10 and similar operating costs and performance specs as those on the -8 and -9. Building the -10 is not the issue. It's getting it off the ground and economically flying that's the concern.
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 6:08 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 28):
Do you agree that its in Boeing's interest to make a firm announcement sooner rather than later with 3 impending large orders in this sector though?

I do indeed. But I understand the constraints Boeing is operating under that makes it difficult for them to just say "Uncle!" and launch the plane with the specs desired.  Smile

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 31):
Leaving aside the various performance and weight issues, as important as they are, I'm wondering if there is a psychological battle on here. Clearly, whatever aircraft any of these airlines order, it is important for them to KNOW that both are available...it's important that it does so in such a manner that avoids the 787-10 merely being used as "the alternative" to get Airbus to force its price down.

 yes 

I still think the 787 family is a viable option for EK, even with their current focus on planes seating 300+ people. So I believe the 787-10 is more important to EK then just a way to get another 5% knocked off their A350 order. EK operates the best plane for their needs, regardless of who makes it.
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 9:39 am

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 20):
This makes a lot of sense to me. We've been hearing for some time now that Boeing is considering a second production line. Might be they could use the second line for the new -10 "if" there is a big enough demand for it. Now, here's another question: Might it be to Boeing's advantage to create a second line for the -3, -8 and -9 and then go a third production line if there's enough of a demand for the -10? What does the -10 have to offer that would create a near immediate demand for it to begin with?

I think it makes the most sense. But assembly line at Seattle is not the issue. They dont need multiple assembly lines as yet. The current line can handle significant increase over todays planned outputs. The issue is with suppliers providing parts for the assembly line for Seattle.

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 25):
Quoting Azhobo (Reply 10):
The way I see it is that until they know they can commit to increasing production capacity for the 787 as a whole, there is no reason to launch the larger version of the 787. They are sold out through 2014-15 and orders are still rolling in. Without increased capacity to build, by launching the 787-10, they only canabalize smaller 787 production slots.

Based on current 787 production schedules the airlines will not sit back and wait for B787-10 while production capacity is taken up by more B788/9 orders.

What are they going to do, place orders for the A350? Where is the advantage to that? Why order an A350 right now if you really want a 787-10? If you order the A350 now, you may get it in the 2015 time frame if you are lucky. Why not wait a few years when Boeing can commit to the increase production capacity of the 787 line and then launches the 787-10, and get the -10 by 2015 or even before then.

Also, which do you think the airliners think is a bigger development risk right now of meeting schedule and perfomance, the A350 launched last year, or the 787-10 launched in 2009? My guess is most would bet that Airbus is the bigger risk right now.

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 25):
Quoting Azhobo (Reply 10):

I think we will hear more about a launch after production snags are under control in 2008 or 09. There will be plenty of time to launch the -10 and still beat the A350 to EIS imo. So why not be conservative while you are in the driver seat.

2008/9 is at least a year too late for Boeing unless they announce a B787-10 specific production line as well. The problem with sub-contracting all of your production and basically doing nothing more than assembling your design is that you are reliant on the production capacities of your sub-contractors.

They dont need a NEW LINE.

As far as your subcontracting comment, you are way off base. The issue is not subcontractor vs inhouse parts production. The issue is whether it makes economic sense to have subcontractors spend the capital to invest in a duplicate lines, risking overcapacity, and not allowing the subcontractorsto make a good return on their investment. This issue is true whether you are subcontracting or building them in house. (Do I double the number of ovens or not? Makes sense only if I know I can keep them near full capacity for set number of years)

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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:18 pm

Quoting Azhobo (Reply 33):
What are they going to do, place orders for the A350? Where is the advantage to that? Why order an A350 right now if you really want a 787-10? If you order the A350 now, you may get it in the 2015 time frame if you are lucky. Why not wait a few years when Boeing can commit to the increase production capacity of the 787 line and then launches the 787-10, and get the -10 by 2015 or even before then.

Airlines will order the A350-9/10 simply because it will be a known entity. There are too many "ifs" in your statement. IF Boeing decides to build it. IF Boeing/subcontractors can increase production capacity.

Quoting Azhobo (Reply 33):
Also, which do you think the airliners think is a bigger development risk right now of meeting schedule and perfomance, the A350 launched last year, or the 787-10 launched in 2009? My guess is most would bet that Airbus is the bigger risk right now.

I disagree entirely. We know that the present B789 can't be enlarged much due to undercarriage strength/wingbox design. Boeing haven't even confirmed if they are able to build a viable B787-10 and at this stage it looks like they are struggling. A359 will be the direct competitor to B787-10 if and when Boeing work out whether they can build it, A359 will be in production in 2013 but the line is sold out until 2015. Airbus have left themselves 6 years to build and deliver this aircraft. With the lessons learned of late, I am sure that won't be a problem. Boeing being hugely dependant on sub-contractors and without an engine or any spec data for the B787-10 as yet look to be a much riskier proposition.

Quoting Azhobo (Reply 33):
They dont need a NEW LINE.

As far as your subcontracting comment, you are way off base. The issue is not subcontractor vs inhouse parts production. The issue is whether it makes economic sense to have subcontractors spend the capital to invest in a duplicate lines, risking overcapacity, and not allowing the subcontractorsto make a good return on their investment. This issue is true whether you are subcontracting or building them in house. (Do I double the number of ovens or not? Makes sense only if I know I can keep them near full capacity for set number of years)

They don't need to double capacity but if they go ahead with B787-10 they will need to be able to produce them at about 1/3-1/2 the rate of B788/9. There SHOULD be enough slack in the production line to increase capacity. If there isn't, Boeing have sold themselves short and gifted the 300-350 seat market to Airbus. Its that simple. They need to be very conscious of the fact that by about 2010, the B777 is dead and as of yet they have nothing to replace it with.
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aminobwana
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:38 pm

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 34):
IF Boeing/subcontractors can increase production capacity

It is interesting that the problem of Boeing subcontractors to raise production is continuously mentioned, but the same problem exists at Airbus, but reinforced by the fact that many of their potential supplier are the same as the already working for Boeing, which obviously will have priority.

This, seems to show:
- as some of these suppliers are negotiating with Airbus, this seems to indicate that they have no problems to expand their capacity

- on the other hand, as the unions are asking that both the divested Airbus plants as well the remianing ones shall continue to supply their products to Airbus, the concept to outsource much of the A350 out of the EU to minimize costs and make use of their experience seems to be endangered

aminobwana
 
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Stitch
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:43 pm

I really don't see any reason why Boeing's subcontractors over the next ten years can't double, if not triple, their production capacity. Spirit has the factory floor room to build four Section 41s. Kawasaki/Fuji/Mitsubishi are all ready to expand existing plants and build new ones. Alenia and Vought should be able to do the same.

Boeing is playing it conservative because they have to - thanks to the A380. Many people on this board with connections to the industry have noted that the A380's EIS delays have really hardened the airline's negotiations with both Boeing and Airbus. There is a reason Boeing constantly talks about how well the 787 program is going, and it's not just for the benefit of Wall Street. It's to keep the airlines comfortable with their decision to order the near side of 1000 of them.

Airbus can promise the world with the A350 because they still have the flexibility to make whatever changes they have to in order to deliver. Boeing doesn't have that luxury with the 787 anymore. They are now bound by the decisions they made, and those decisions did not take into account a 777-sized model within a few years of initial EIS. They also didn't take into account that the 787 would pre-sell more copies then any Boeing family has sold, period (sans the 747 and it just might take her, too).

Boeing hasn't completed assembly of the first 787, much less started testing it. They have their hands full right now with actual product. To now start heavily re-designing it for larger and heavier variants strikes me as premature, regardless of how credible a threat one views the A350 to possibly be.

Airbus is still over one year from planned design freeze and they continue to make serious changes. The A350-1000 has added 20t of MTOW, yet range remains 500nm below original "launch goal". When Boeing's Randy Baseler offered the opinion in his blog that the A350-900 would not clear 8000nm, to say nothing of the 8500nm "launch goal", he was flamed by Airbus Aficionados. And yet Airbus has reduced the range if that model to 8100nm... And now we have EK and QF clamoring for Boeing to make a 787 with 8500nm because Airbus is looking like they can't deliver an A350 with that range...

And yet, Boeing has a twin right now that will happily haul 300 people and a solid payload 8500nm... It's called the 777-200LR. You might know it as the plane that will be "dead" by 2010, because no other plane can do what it does... Big grin
 
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keesje
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:52 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
They have their hands full right now with actual product. To now start heavily re-designing it for larger and heavier variants strikes me as premature,

Good reasoning onclusion.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
Boeing has a twin right now that will happily haul 300 people and a solid payload 8500nm... It's called the 777-200LR. You might know it as the plane that will be "dead" by 2010, because no other plane can do what it does...

Tell that SQ & EK..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
zvezda
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Fri Jul 20, 2007 11:52 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
[Boeing] are now bound by the decisions they made, and those decisions did not take into account a 777-sized model within a few years of initial EIS.

Actually, Boeing increased the 787's wingspan circa September 2004 in order to accommodate an expected future 787-10. I think Boeing underestimated how demanding the airlines would be in terms of payload/range performance of a 787-10.
 
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Stitch
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Sat Jul 21, 2007 12:03 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 37):
Tell that SQ & EK..

EK has bought ten of them. And I believe SQ has not only because they can't get enough back on the A345 to make it worth buying and operating the 777-200LR for a short period of time. An A345 right now is worth about $90 million on the open market and a 772LR goes for around $135 million, so SQ would need to see more the $45 million in improved RoI for the time period they would operate the plane, which would probably be a decade...

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 38):
Actually, Boeing increased the 787's wingspan circa September 2004 in order to accommodate an expected future 787-10. I think Boeing underestimated how demanding the airlines would be in terms of payload/range performance of a 787-10.

And I believe those demands are being driven by the advent of the A350XWB, which didn't exist even as a design study when Boeing started the 7E7/787 program. Airbus was planning a mildly refreshed A345E/A346E and Boeing felt a mildly refreshed 77L and 77W would be sufficient to maintain their lead.
 
aminobwana
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Sat Jul 21, 2007 12:09 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
Boeing is playing it conservative because they have to

There are two basic observations to the concept you present.

1) That Boeing has his "hand full" presently. This is simply not a fact considering that the have absolutely no funding problems.

At this moment, the have concluded essentially the design of the NEW B787 and are in the "adaption to the reality" phase.,They are also very advanced in the design of the DERIVATIVE B748
And this is all !!
Therefore, IMO, there is no doubt they can add the Derivative B787-10 or the more "difficult" B787-11 and initiate the basic design of the Y1.
Anyway, even if they wish to wait until the EIS of the B787 before addressing the new tasks. All what they must do now is telling Airlines like EK and QF that they commit to do so and give the the most basic parameters now.

2) To see the B787-10-11 issue only from the point of view of the not gigantic potential sales of these aircrafts is a mistake. WAH64D, myself and other have repeated argued that the non availability of these model induces some airlines, which do not want split between B787 and A350, to purchase the latter, and this means important sale losses for Boeing.

aminobwana
 
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Sat Jul 21, 2007 12:14 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 35):
It is interesting that the problem of Boeing subcontractors to raise production is continuously mentioned, but the same problem exists at Airbus, but reinforced by the fact that many of their potential supplier are the same as the already working for Boeing, which obviously will have priority.

This, seems to show:
- as some of these suppliers are negotiating with Airbus, this seems to indicate that they have no problems to expand their capacity

- on the other hand, as the unions are asking that both the divested Airbus plants as well the remianing ones shall continue to supply their products to Airbus, the concept to outsource much of the A350 out of the EU to minimize costs and make use of their experience seems to be endangered

Firstly, as yet the A350 will not make use of CFRP barrels so none of those contractors are using capacity that could be offered to Boeing. The remainder adds no confidence in the position of Boeing to increase production to a level that would allow a timely delivery of any future B787-10 to compete with A359/10.
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keesje
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Sat Jul 21, 2007 12:32 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 39):
And I believe SQ has not only because they can't get enough back on the A345 to make it worth buying and operating the 777-200LR for a short period of time.

I think that one of the many myth's made up by the Boeing groupies that lost serious ground since kingfisher ordered 10 new ones.

Anyway happy to help you out with the 300 pax/8500nm issue, the A340-500 can fly 313 passengers in a three-class cabin layout over 8,650 nautical miles (16,000 km). I'm not sure of the 777-200LR's usefull ULH payload flying from hot SIN.. the single engine take off requirements with such a heavy re tough.

Anyway don't know why 777 operators like SQ and BA refused to order the LR, perhaps they'll will wait for the A380-800R like probably QF.
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columba
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Sat Jul 21, 2007 12:36 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
Where's the A322? A330-400? A350-1100? A380-900?

Come on Airbus, it's just a simple stretch!

The A320-200 is already there and the stretch is called A321, I think the difference is apart from the A380-900 Airbus has not announced any of these stretches while 787-10 has been announced a couple of times and many airlines such as BA, EK and LH are pushing for this model since otherwise they have no interest in the 787 (well BA still might have but EK and LH are mainly interested in the -10).
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Stitch
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Sat Jul 21, 2007 12:39 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 40):
1) That Boeing has his "hand full" presently. This is simply not a fact considering that the have absolutely no funding problems.

Funding is not the issue. The subcontractors are getting up to speed just building the components, period, much less at the initial planned rate. That takes time, not money, since the equipment is already paid for and the processes are already defined.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 40):
Anyway, even if they wish to wait until the EIS of the B787 before addressing the new tasks. All what they must do now is telling Airlines like EK and QF that they commit to do so and give the the most basic parameters now.

I do not believe that would be smart. If Airbus set their performance guarantees for the A350 too high (as they appear to have done with their initial performance goals), then Boeing is going to benefit, period, provided they don't make the same mistake.

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 40):
2) To see the B787-10-11 issue only from the point of view of the not gigantic potential sales of these aircrafts is a mistake. WAH64D, myself and other have repeated argued that the non availability of these model induces some airlines, which do not want split between B787 and A350, to purchase the latter, and this means important sale losses for Boeing.

Right now, the two most likely carriers to take the A350 over the 787 are EK and LH. EK because they want something bigger and LH because they already fly Airbus widebodies exclusively (with the exception of the 747) and the 787-3 and 787-8 don't fit their current fleet needs. With LH just adding a number of new Airbus planes across the A350 family's product range, LH may very well just wait to see what Y3/787.v2 brings to the table. And EK, even if they buy the A350 to begin with, may very well take 787.v2's or Y3s down the road.

I don't believe QF will take the A350-1000. They see a niche that they might fill with a plane with 350 seats and 8500nm range that is a lot cheaper to operate then the 747-8I or A380-800R, but they've committed to the 787 family so they'll wait until a 787 with those specs becomes available. And if it doesn't, then they'll just soldier on with the 787-9 and A380-800 and scrap plans for that niche.
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Sat Jul 21, 2007 12:54 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 37):
Tell that SQ & EK..

AC listened and bought in  biggrin  They could have purchased additional A345's but didn't. Apparently a  thumbsdown 
 
DAYflyer
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Sat Jul 21, 2007 1:01 am

Quoting LuisKMIA (Reply 21):
think this would be a 777-200 killer,

Been thought about many times here and elsewhere. True it would kill it off, but as the former great head of BCA said, "Better for us to kill it off than the competition", or something to that effect. I agree with his statement and they should develop a -10 with 300+ pax and 8500nm range.
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Hamlet69
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Sat Jul 21, 2007 1:05 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
Airbus can promise the world with the A350 because they still have the flexibility to make whatever changes they have to in order to deliver. Boeing doesn't have that luxury with the 787 anymore.

First off, congratulations on an excellent post!  thumbsup  As to the above, it is certainly true with the A350. With design freeze over a year away, many things can still change in order to meet performance guarantees made to customers. For instance, there is still talk that the -1000 (and possible -1100) will have a heavily modified wing than the -800/-900. Now, while it is certainly true that the 787 is a set and known design, that does not mean that certain changes, in the order of the 777 to 777LR, can't be made. While Boeing certainly would not want to make them from both an R&D and commonality perspective, Boeing also has time on its side.

Many less knowledge on this forum keep saying that Boeing needs to launch the 787-10 today. But why? If launched, say next year @ the time of the -8's EIS, Boeing can still design and build the aircraft with an EIS either before or simultaneous to the A350-900. The only thing that would prevent Boeing from doing this is the overwhelming demand of the -8/-9 and the necessity (read: production capacity) to fill current orders. OTOH, once a -10 is launched, there will be certain customers who will convert some -8/-9 orders. . .

Quoting Keesje (Reply 37):
Tell that SQ & EK..

Sure. I'll send EK a letter when the take delivery of their first -200LR later this year. . .  sarcastic 


Regards,

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WingedMigrator
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Sat Jul 21, 2007 1:48 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
A 787-8LR with 10,000nm nominal range should be doable within the 270t MTOW of the 787-9 or the 280t MTOW of the current undercarriage.

I think you should make it clear what kind of tons you're using here, lest we compare them directly with Airbus figures, which are always metric. Your 787 figures above assume 1 ton = 2000 lbs. In metric tonnes, the MTOW of the 787-9 is 245 t and the MLG can probably handle 255 t.

Quoting Azhobo (Reply 33):
The issue is whether it makes economic sense to have subcontractors spend the capital to invest in a duplicate lines, risking overcapacity, and not allowing the subcontractorsto make a good return on their investment.

The subs hold the cards here. It's not like Boeing "has subcontractors spend the capital"... that decision is firmly in the hands of the subs, and there is no way Boeing could "not allow the subcontractors to make a good RoI". Boeing doesn't call the shots. All they can do is present a business case to the subcontractor, and if the sub doesn't like it, Boeing must go find another sub. Tail wagging the dog?  Big grin
 
aminobwana
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RE: News Covering B787-10 And Eventual Derivatives

Sat Jul 21, 2007 2:21 am

Quoting Hamlet69 (Reply 47):
Many less knowledge on this forum keep saying that Boeing needs to launch the 787-10 today

From the Boeing point of view:

If you read my Reply 40, I agree tha the launch at EIS B788 is adequate, adding that they must give an assurance to
the requesting airlines that they will do so, in order that these wait and do not order Airbus now !!

The assurance must include the basic parameters to be reached

I do not think that Airbus will improve their performance parameters beyond they are provisionally indicated, so Boeing can chose data as far as possible near the airlines request (as any of them have differnet wishes), and equivalent at least to the A3510
But at difference to what Airbus does, airlines will not order such "paper aircrafts" now, and if at EIS788 Airbus has improved the data, Boeing would, at request of the airlines, do the same before any order.

Again: In a few words: all this has a only reason: to assure airlines that they will have the adequate aircraft before the A3510 can be delivered, even if the order is not issued now. So, they could wait ! !!

aminobwana

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