Flighty
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 1:55 am

Sounds like Dubai Kingdom really loves the A350 and is hoping that Boeing will set up a product just like it. Then, they can have the bidding war.
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:22 am

If the market "tanks", and it will at some point for an indeterminate period for anyone of a number of reasons , the 'high flyer" Middle East carriers will renege on their contracts and since they are largely backed by sovereign capital the chances of A or B being able to collect on any damages allowed for in the contracts to purchase is about zero in my view.
I think B would be smart to keep their exposure to these guys at a relatively low level.  twocents 
 
Lumberton
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:26 am

Given that the government of Dubai purchased a stake in EADS, is there any doubt that the A350 is going to win this order?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:38 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 52):
Given that the government of Dubai purchased a stake in EADS, is there any doubt that the A350 is going to win this order?

If Dubai thinks the purchase of 100 planes is going to significantly improve the stock price of EADS, Paris should have convinced them otherwise.

Not to mention the A350 program is out of their control and hands. Should something go...amiss...they're along for the ride.

I see the investment by Dubai as just taking advantage of an artificially low stock price that should rebound over the next few years whatever EK does...
 
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:51 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 53):
If Dubai thinks the purchase of 100 planes is going to significantly improve the stock price of EADS, Paris should have convinced them otherwise.

The stock would likely erode further if EK were to be a launch customer for 100 787-10s. IMO, they won't do it and will order the A350. I'm prepared to be wrong, but it doesn't make sense (to me at least) to act counter to one's investment interests.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:03 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 14):
The A350XWB is obviously the best aircraft to replace the entire A330/340 & 777 fleet @ Emirates

That there will ultimately be a place in the world's airlines for a 787-10LR seems clear, but I'm inclined to agree with others in this forum that such an airplane at this time is likely to be more than Boeing can handle, given it already has a very full plate. Might EK be working to manuever Airbus into a better price? Quite possible. Does EK really expect Boeing to produce a 787 to their specifications and make promises it will get done? Perhaps. But EK must surely realize Boeing has a full plate now and will have for the near future at least. It strikes me too that Boeing doesn't really need this order ... at least not in the near term. EK would do well to talk intelligently with Boeing while negotiating as intelligently with Airbus.
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:13 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 54):
The stock would likely erode further if EK were to be a launch customer for 100 787-10s.

So they get an even better deal on their shares. Big grin

Quote:
IMO, they won't do it and will order the A350. I'm prepared to be wrong, but it doesn't make sense (to me at least) to act counter to one's investment interests.

EK have ordered over 50 A380s, yet that did nothing to prevent the problem with the deliveries of those planes knock a good third or more of the stock of EADS.

I don't recall Boeing's stock rising significantly when QF committed to (up to) 115 787s. It has risen significantly because airlines have ordered close to 800 of them.

If Airbus hits all the numbers on the A350, EK's order isn't going to be a major determiner of the stock price. It will be the scores of other airlines who collectively order four figures worth of planes that will cause EADS stock to rise.

So I too am prepared to be wrong, but I expect EK's decision is being driven more by "which family will make us most successful from 2015-2030" then "if we buy Airbus, we can make a couple bucks profit on each of our shares, provided nothing untoward happens over the time we hold on to those shares."

After all, Dubai could invest in Boeing, push the stock even higher (getting the 787 family over 1000 orders before EIS should provide a nice boost) and they actually get to exercise the right to vote at the annual shareholder's meeting.  duck 
 
WINGS
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:13 am

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 29):

Ummm...source?

I did mention rumour.  Wink and I believe that it is comon sense to expect such replacement of their existing fleet with either the 787 or A350, but currently the A350 match's their needs better.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 37):

That's hilarious WINGS! biggrin

Now if they only actually had a real plane to sell. When is design freeze again?

Tell that to Qatar who was dumb enough to sign up for 20 A350-1000.

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 41):
It always amuses me how excited the Airbus clan get over the A350-1000.

Why shouldn't we be? I get excited about any new aviation program.

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 41):
Airbus began the widebody twin era with the A300 only they were short on range and the 767ER models eclipsed them at their own game.

10 years latter.

I don't know if you are aware but the A300/A310 program actually managed to out do various members of the 767 family.

A300F outsold the 767F
A310 outsold the 767-200/ER

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 41):

Airbus responded with the A330 which is a damn fine plane but a little short on range. With this model they promoted the A330 as medium range and the 4 engine A340 as the long range option (dare I say it "4 engines 4 long haul)

I blame PW for the screw up in providing the A340-200/300 the promised super-fan. Had PW delivered on their promise, then the A340 program might have looked abit different today.

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 41):

Boeing in probably one of their smartest moves in the last 15 years trumped Airbus by taking a 'punt' in the development of high thrust engines required for design missions. The 77W and even the 772ER epitomise everything that Airbus didn't do. They did not have a long range large payload capable twin capable of mixing it with the 772ER and C market versions.

Correct.  checkmark 

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 41):

I remember a chart posted not that long ago that showed the 358 359 3510 all with around 8500nm range. This is the problem that EK may have with the A350, it sound great looks great but the engineering department still have to engineer the promises. They don't have to look back far to remember the A346 debacle.

Why go all the way back to 2001? Emirates might just take a look at what happened with the A380 program. They are getting them late, but at least Airbus managed to meet and even exceed the promised targets.  Wink

Regards,
Wings
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USAF336TFS
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:24 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 57):
Why go all the way back to 2001? Emirates might just take a look at what happened with the A380 program. They are getting them late, but at least Airbus managed to meet and even exceed the promised targets.

Wings, my friend, I'm usually in agreement with you, but really, have the all targets you mentioned been "met" yet? If we judge it by targets, such as EIS, made by Airbus in 2005, no, they're two years behind schedule. Performance targets? EK can only judge by Airbus generated fight test data. Real world numbers may or may not produce similar results.
I'm not doubting the jist of your comments, but judging A380 "targets", whether they're met or missed, at this point may be a bit premature.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 56):
After all, Dubai could invest in Boeing, push the stock even higher (getting the 787 family over 1000 orders before EIS should provide a nice boost) and they actually get to exercise the right to vote at the annual shareholder's meeting

Correct, which if I've read correctly, neither Dubai nor the Russian National Bank can do in the EADS shareholder framework.

[Edited 2007-07-19 20:30:52]
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Rbgso
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:39 am

Quoting PM (Reply 39):
Of course, they could be wrong and may have just signed up for what eventually is frozen as a 3-seat biplane made out of wood and fabric with a range of ten miles

I think they will use composite panels instead of fabric......
 Silly
 
MD-90
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 3:42 am

Quoting Philzh (Reply 12):

That would make for an awfully nice-looking fleet, IMHO.

Awfully nice looking? How about boring? Beautiful planes like the A332, A345, and 77W replaced by just one type?
 
fridgmus
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 5:01 am

From someone outside the industry.

Can Boeing afford to tell EK to take a hike and build the 787-10 for the rest of the airlines and what would the consequences be (if any)?

Thanks,

Marc
The Lockheed Super Constellation, the REAL Queen of the Skies!
 
aminobwana
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 5:37 am

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 51):
If the market "tanks", and it will at some point for an indeterminate period for anyone of a number of reasons , the 'high flyer" Middle East carriers will renege on their contracts and since they are largely backed by sovereign capital the chances of A or B being able to collect on any damages allowed for in the contracts to purchase is about zero in my view.
I think B would be smart to keep their exposure to these guys at a relatively low level.

Yes.One of a number of reasonsis that the pharaonic and as far I know, unsupported forecast for EK, against Hub competion from a lot of other as Qatar, Etihad, Kingfischer SQ and non-stop competition from all major airlines, incl. QF, IMO is totally out of proportion, even if the market does not tank !!!

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 52):
Given that the government of Dubai purchased a stake in EADS, is there any doubt that the A350 is going to win this order?



Quote:
If Dubai thinks the purchase of 100 planes is going to significantly improve the stock price of EADS, Paris should have convinced them otherwise.
Not to mention the A350 program is out of their control and hands. Should something go...amiss...they're along for the ride.
I see the investment by Dubai as just taking advantage of an artificially low stock price that should rebound over the next few years whatever EK does...



Quoting Stitch (Reply 53):
Quoting Lumberton (Reply 52):
Given that the government of Dubai purchased a stake in EADS, is there any doubt that the A350 is going to win this order?

A lot of doubts, assuming tha EK are good businessmen.
1) First, if DUBAI has bought about 25 M EADS shares at let say $ 22 and they are expecting to sell the latter at $ 32(price before the collapse), so they would gain $ 320 M, not much more than the list price of one A380 !!!
This gain is peanuts again any problem which the still not defined A350 could cause. Of course, the gain is important for the fund managers, but not for the state of Dubai (or the sheikh!), owner of EK
2) The fact that even if they order only B787 this will not affect the eventual recuperation of EADS stock, which will be ensured by the Governments whatever it costs and this, only this, is the reason of Dubai's investment
3) So, to think that the Dubai investment will ensure the A350, is wishful thinking. On the other side, IMO, as I agree totally with SunriseValley, Boeing will not even want this whole contract so Airbus will get a part of it !

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 17):
If they woudn't have trust in Airbus, do you think they'd have placed 2 follow up orders for more A380s this year alone?

Probably, the first 4 are, even if denied, part of the delay and overweight compensation deal/
The second is still a MOU.As already noted, EK is interested to maintain Airbus as a viable competitor on the market (and so are nearly all airlines) and will perform any psychological support measure as long as it cost them nothing. Unless they are commercially totally incompetent, they have incorporated a easy go-away clause in the contract.

I do not thing that EK trust much Airbus, but they are in the same boat !!!

aminobwana
 
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autothrust
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 5:47 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 16):
Emirates trust and faith in Airbus is still strong despite delays to the A380 program, this is very apparent as they have placed additional orders/commitments for 12 frames in 2007.

Well its not they didn't have a lot of choice after they purchased 45. 12 748 wouldn't offer commonality.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 16):

I don't think that this is really an issue at this present time. Have both RR and GE committed to supply an engine for the 787-10?

Thats a very good and interesting Point. My guess, only GE will offer a engine for the 787-10.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 17):

You may also believe EK has a preference for a certain production process (barrel over shells), but I rather think they just have a preference for a lower operating cost really, so provided the A350 can match or beat that of the 787

True, at the end this is what counts. The question is if Airbus can match with shells ..

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 17):
it's structural design does top out well before the 77W comes in view, so an order for 787s does not give them a platform for this future replacement (contrary to the A350).

With the 787-10/11 that wouldn't be the case. Thats the reason IMO why EK wants guarantee.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 17):
EK could be executing their business plan to span the globe with a fleet of 400 widebodies with just 2 tailor-made types from the manufacturer they co-own:

EK could not choose between A/B and get very good price for the frames, apart from the risk. Clark himself said duopoly is good and he dont want Airbus to disappear.

Quoting PM (Reply 39):

Of course, they could be wrong and may have just signed up for what eventually is frozen as a 3-seat biplane made out of wood and fabric with a range of ten miles.

 laughing 

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):
So I expect EK wants a 787-10 both as a hedge if the A350 doesn't "hit the numbers" (just as they want an A350 in case the 787 doesn't "hit the numbers") and as another family of arrows for their quiver to maximize their fleet's capabilities.

Agreed, he wants competition to get the best deal and a "backup" to get the best plane with lowest mx cost.
Flown on: DC-9, MD-80, Fokker 100, Bae 146 Avro, Boeing 737-300, 737-400, 747-200, 747-300,747-400, 787-9, Airbus A310, A319, A320, A321, A330-200,A330-300, A340-313, A380, Bombardier CSeries 100/300, CRJ700ER/CRJ900, Embraer 190.
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 5:52 am

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 63):
Thats a very good and interesting Point. My guess, only GE will offer a engine for the 787-10.

I think RR will offer to power the 787-10 and 787HGWs.
 
EI321
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 6:00 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 62):
I do not thing that EK trust much Airbus

They dont trust airbus, so they order more of Airbus' most dodgy model before it enters service?

Bad excuses everywhere in this thread!
 
aminobwana
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 6:11 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 65):
Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 62):
I do not thing that EK trust much Airbus
They dont trust airbus, so they order more of Airbus' most dodgy model before it enters service?
Bad excuses everywhere in this thread!

I would say: not bad excuses, but (hopefully unintentional) incomplete quotes !! Was this to long to quote ??

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 62):
I do not thing that EK trust much Airbus, but they are in the same boat !!!
 
acvitale
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 6:14 am

Just a quick thought...

What would keep Boeing from Developing the 787-10 and then adding another type to the fleet the 787-11 later on.

One could satisfy all the involved parties.

I personally believe that the A350XWB has a lot of potential but until the design is frozen it is no different then the 787-10 subject to final revision.

The A380 and the 787 both have yet to enter commercial service.

The actual data will be known to all this time next year on the first A380 and 878 models.

We will know more as time passes.

Until then we have a lot of nationalistic pride, hypothetical discussion and third parties whom are not directly involved.

It is not good for any free market economy to dominate the entire industry and the free market forces will ensure that competition exists long term. Of course lags will occur in research and development and some companies may fail and others rise.

Let us not forget the Chinese, Russians, and Brazilians will be direct competitors to Boeing and Airbus in the near future with new designs and types and to a lesser extent Bombardier in Canada may or may not be a competitor (or survive) and the Japanese and Koreans are naturals to enter the markets.

Best Regards
 
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 6:46 am

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 51):
If the market "tanks", and it will at some point for an indeterminate period for anyone of a number of reasons , the 'high flyer" Middle East carriers will renege on their contracts and since they are largely backed by sovereign capital the chances of A or B being able to collect on any damages allowed for in the contracts to purchase is about zero in my view.
I think B would be smart to keep their exposure to these guys at a relatively low level. twocents



Quoting Stitch (Reply 53):
I see the investment by Dubai as just taking advantage of an artificially low stock price that should rebound over the next few years whatever EK does...

...actually it would be bad business decision to link the two together..if EK came to Airbus and said.."our Kingdom owns part of your parent company EADS, give us great deals", it would hurt Airbus/EADS bottom line as they can possibly use those slots for higher-profit/higher-margin sales to other customers......maybe they would strike a balance...but I see too many conflicts of interest and EK & Co..as well as the rulers of Dubai aren't as dumb as their predecessors...they are run by sharp business-minded people..

Even during the whole "Dubai Ports" drama last year, the CEO of one of Israel's Largest shipping company (forgot the name) came on CNN (Wolf Blizter show) and "said-we do business with Dubai Ports, they are a great company and we have no problems with them running the ports in Florida"..

Of course, unlike the geniuses Chuck Schumer, Hillary Clinton and Peter King who claimed they were "going to take over the ports"  sarcastic  butthead , smart business-folk know these guys mean business...

..in response to SunriseValley's comments....it wouldn't be a smart idea for them to just "renege" on their contracts...they still do a lot of business, not to mention, many of the planes are financed by non-Middle East money....
"Up the Irons!"
 
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 6:57 am

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 63):
12 748 wouldn't offer commonality.

I think there would be a good degree of commonality with the fleet of 748Fs they have on order. yes 
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Stitch
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 7:10 am

Quoting ACVitale (Reply 67):
What would keep Boeing from Developing the 787-10 and then adding another type to the fleet the 787-11 later on.

Nothing, really. It's just time and money. Boeing has plenty of the former. They're starting to run low on the latter...
 
aminobwana
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 7:21 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 70):
Nothing, really. It's just time and money. Boeing has plenty of the former. They're starting to run low on the latter...

Not inversely ???

aminobwana
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 9:22 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 71):
Not inversely?

Boeing is going to be making serious coin for years thanks to all the 787s they will deliver, but all those 787s they have to deliver shrinks the "window of availability" they have against the A350.
 
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PM
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 10:03 am

Quoting FlyABR (Reply 38):
Hazy believes Boeing will decide on a version of the 787-10 that best meets the needs of both camps.

Or, to put it another way, doesn't really meet the needs of either.

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 41):
only Boeing is in a better position whether they win or lose

You're not exactly impartial, are you?  Smile

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 41):
it is a difficult task to optimise a plane capable as a 77W but also against the 787-8

Which, I guess, is why they haven't attempted to do it. Please inform us just which version of the A350 is pitched against the 787-8.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 44):
Ah, but the biggest owner of Airbus jets in the world is unconvinced!

Ah, A.Net canard #2. A plane doesn't have credibility unless and until ILFC orders it.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 45):
Oh one other thing, how many are firm orders and how many are MOU's of the 200+. The single largest purchase of 80 is an MOU at this point

Really...?

Quoting Dank (Reply 47):
Uhhh. No. QR placed a firm order at Paris. According to Airbus as of 6 July, there are 154 firm orders and 100 commitments

 checkmark 

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 48):
It would be fine raising your eyebrows if you were actually correct.

 checkmark 

[At which point Flysherwood went quiet...  cheeky  ]

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 63):
My guess, only GE will offer a engine for the 787-10.

Why on earth would you say that? RR are already taking the Trent up to where it needs to be. GE have announced no plans to do the same with the GEnx.
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 10:37 am

Quoting PM (Reply 73):
Please inform us just which version of the A350 is pitched against the 787-8.

Unless Airbus wants to offer A330-200s, by default they will pitch the A350-800 for any RFPs looking for a long-range ~225-seater.
 
flyabr
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 10:40 am

Quoting PM (Reply 73):
Or, to put it another way, doesn't really meet the needs of either.

well, you can't always get want you want...i'm sure boeing will find the appropriate mix of payload/performance/range to satisfy most of the folks seriously looking at the dash 10...
 
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 10:44 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 74):
Unless Airbus wants to offer A330-200s, by default they will pitch the A350-800 for any RFPs looking for a long-range ~225-seater.

Clearly. But the A358 is shoulder-to-shoulder with the 789. Thus, they have not attempted to match the 788 like-with-like. No more have Boeing attempted to match the A388 but they'll pitch the 748 against it "by default". Our friend's argument above was that Airbus would struggle to take on the 787-8 to 777-300ER range with one basic design. I'm suggesting they aren't trying.
 
iwok
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 12:13 pm

Quoting Khobar (Reply 40):
I didn't know Boeing manufactured the A300. As they say, one learns something new every day, eh?LOL.

Not to mention mad dogs (before the buyout), E-jets and Bombardiers.  Wink

Quoting WINGS (Reply 57):
I blame PW for the screw up in providing the A340-200/300 the promised super-fan. Had PW delivered on their promise, then the A340 program might have looked abit different today.

And just what would that have done????

Quoting WINGS (Reply 57):
They are getting them late, but at least Airbus managed to meet and even exceed the promised targets.

They have not meet or exceed targets yet. They still have to *deliver* and then let EK agree or disagree that the targets were met.

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 63):
Well its not they didn't have a lot of choice after they purchased 45. 12 748 wouldn't offer commonality.

EX already has ordered 10 748, so I think there is plenty of commonality.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 69):
I think there would be a good degree of commonality with the fleet of 748Fs they have on order.

 yes 

iwok
 
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PM
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 12:31 pm

Quoting Iwok (Reply 77):

And just what would that have done????

Well, I think it would have had a lower fuel burn for starters. That wouldn't have hurt sales.

Quoting Iwok (Reply 77):
They have not meet or exceed targets yet. They still have to *deliver* and then let EK agree or disagree that the targets were met.

Don't be so grudging. If there is a silver lining to the long wait for the A380 to be delivered it's that they've had more than two years to fly nine frames all over the place. All the indications are that the airlines are happy with the data they are receiving and that the plane will at least meet targets. Qantas, Singapore and Emirates haven't re-ordered A380s in substantial numbers on a hunch. They've seen the numbers.

Of course, day in, day out airline operations are something different but there is little reason to doubt that the plane will perform as promised.
 
Wsp
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 12:41 pm

Quoting FlyABR (Reply 38):
Mike Bair, head of the 787 program, said at the 787 rollout that the entry into service date for the 787-10 has slipped about a year, to 2013. The reason is that Boeing no longer has earlier production slots for the 787-10 test planes. Those slots went to eager 787-9 and 787-8 customers.

In an interview, Steve Udvar-Hazy told me there are essentially two airline camps that have emerged regarding the 300-plus seat 787-10. One camp wants a much bigger plane than the 787-9. Emirates and Qantas are in that camp. Qantas wants a 350-seater. The other camp favors a smaller 787-10, but one that would have more range than the bigger 787-10.

Hazy believes Boeing will decide on a version of the 787-10 that best meets the needs of both camps. He thinks Boeing will decide late this year or early next on just how big to make the 787-10.

Thanks for the quote.

Sinking large amounts of money into the 787-10 (especially for extensive modifications to meet EKs range goals) doesn't seem to make sense. Boeing's production is maxed out. By offering the -10 they cannot sell more aircraft. The profit would have to come from the price difference between the smaller model that would have been sold for that slot anyway and the -10 model.

If Boeing publicly states that they don't believe in the -10 enough to hold on to a handful of slots for the test planes (planes, that they usually sell off later BTW) then Airbus doesn't need to worry too much it seems.

It seems that Boeing needs to open additional production capacity before the -10 makes sense.
 
HughesAirwest
Posts: 49
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:28 pm

RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 12:54 pm

Quoting Mptpa (Reply 20):
I am not sure if EK wants to put all its eggs in the same basket. With 55 A380s and a couple of hundred A350s would be way too risky.

I believe what Mptpa was saying is that with all the problems at Airbus/EADS ie. the power8, A380 issues and designing A350 late because they dimissed thet 787 brings question to Airline CEO's. Will Airbus/EADS's Power8 really do as advertized? Will there be more software problems? Will Airbus blame the customers for any problems that may crop up?
Will Airbus deliver as promised? With these questions in mind, would a CEO really base his company's future on a fleet from a single manufacturer who has these issues on going?

EK may be unpredicatble but they are certainly not going to bank the company's only on the A380/350.
"One man practicing Teamwork is far better than fifty preaching it."
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1771
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:20 pm

Quoting FlyABR (Reply 38):
One camp wants a much bigger plane than the 787-9. Emirates and Qantas are in that camp. Qantas wants a 350-seater. The other camp favors a smaller 787-10, but one that would have more range than the bigger 787-10.

This paraphrase of Hazy is very interesting, and offers an important clue.

Option #1: a 350-seater is what has been discussed around here as the 787-11: it is far bigger than a 300 pax 787-10 depicted in Boeing renderings, which show a simple 10-frame stretch of the 787-9. It is almost a given that such an airplane would grow well past the 245 tonne MTOW of the 787-9.

Option #2: if the 787-10 is built as a 10-frame stretch of the 787-9 (as depicted in Boeing renderings) but keeps the same MTOW, the range will drop to roughly 7200 nm, without cargo, which is barely competitive. Again, it is almost a given that such an airplane would grow heavier than 245 tonnes.

So the clue is that a 787-10 with the same MTOW as the 787-9 is clearly off the table. MTOW will need to increase A LOT to satisfy either option, very likely beyond 254 tonnes (560,000 lbs), into a range where the wing and landing gear will need some serious design work.

With an order book this full, and EK possibly asking Boeing to build such an airplane just so they can beat down the price on the A350-1000, I doubt Boeing will bite any time soon.
 
atmx2000
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 2:45 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 81):
Option #1: a 350-seater is what has been discussed around here as the 787-11: it is far bigger than a 300 pax 787-10 depicted in Boeing renderings, which show a simple 10-frame stretch of the 787-9. It is almost a given that such an airplane would grow well past the 245 tonne MTOW of the 787-9.

When QF says they want a 350 seater, it isn't clear in what configuration. After all they were quoting the capacity of the 787 models when they announced the 787-8 and -9 as having 300 seats, which seems high for even 9Y in the 787-9.

I will say this: while stretching the 787 by the same length as the -9 was stretched over the -8 would be simple conceptually and would result in a smaller range penatly or require a lower MTOW to achieve a given range, the percentage difference would be smaller for the double stretch. Having a similar capacity increase as a percentage would allow better differentiation between the products. An aircraft stretched by an additional 20% would have 9Y capacity of around 340 pax in 3 class.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
boeing767-300
Posts: 625
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Fri Jul 20, 2007 5:26 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 73):
Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 41):
only Boeing is in a better position whether they win or lose

You're not exactly impartial, are you?

PM you miss the point and its not about being impartial or not but the fact remains that Boeing sold 100s of 787 with no competition. Airbus refused to realise the step change in design that after many redesigns that have now acknowledged that the 787 was on the right track and they are playing catch up. The point is Airbus are 100s of orders behind have lost some of their own Widebody customers, have a 10Billion development cost and EIS 5 years after. They also go to the negotiating table with regard to all of the above in not an ideal situation. You remember US indicating they may go 787, QR ordering 787 and even one of the original A350 customers Air Europa is threatening 787. The earlier 787 didn't have such competition.

Quoting PM (Reply 73):
Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 41):
it is a difficult task to optimise a plane capable as a 77W but also against the 787-8

Which, I guess, is why they haven't attempted to do it. Please inform us just which version of the A350 is pitched against the 787-8.

77W market is a lot smaller than 787-8 market. Witness 500 odd sales before first flight compared to 260 odd 77W over 6 years. Maybe they aimed a little high but then they not only had to counter 787 but design something to replace the Trent 500 powered A340s which had been severely dealt to in the market place. No matter how you look at it a difficult task.
 
UAEflyer
Topic Author
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 12:45 am

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 83):
77W market is a lot smaller than 787-8 market. Witness 500 odd sales before first flight compared to 260 odd 77W over 6 years. Maybe they aimed a little high but then they not only had to counter 787 but design something to replace the Trent 500 powered A340s which had been severely dealt to in the market place. No matter how you look at it a difficult task.

i believe that the 77W was created to compete with A340, the 787 market should be way different from the 77W.
 
flysherwood
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 5:30 am

Quoting PM (Reply 73):
Ah, A.Net canard #2. A plane doesn't have credibility unless and until ILFC orders it.

So I guess it doesn't matter to Airbus if Sir Hazy orders the A350 or not?  Yeah sure
 
dank
Posts: 935
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 6:21 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 85):
So I guess it doesn't matter to Airbus if Sir Hazy orders the A350 or not?

And that is the same as necessary for credibility? Are you going to tell me that Boeing doesn't care if they get the EK order? And that if they don't, then the 787-10 isn't credible?

cheers.
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 7:11 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 86):
And that is the same as necessary for credibility? Are you going to tell me that Boeing doesn't care if they get the EK order? And that if they don't, then the 787-10 isn't credible?

I know many here on A.net are do not agree with this, however, an order from ILFC is a lot more important than an order from EK. Of the 200 or so A350 orders, mou's etc... how many airlines are represented? How many have now bought the 787? And how many more are going to lease the 787 from ILFC? And if you don't think that this is important, what happens if, God forbid, EK were forced to slow down or dare I say it, go into the tank? An order from ILFC or GECAS means a hell of a lot more than an order from any individual airline.
 
dank
Posts: 935
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 7:36 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 87):
I know many here on A.net are do not agree with this, however, an order from ILFC is a lot more important than an order from EK. Of the 200 or so A350 orders, mou's etc... how many airlines are represented? How many have now bought the 787? And how many more are going to lease the 787 from ILFC? And if you don't think that this is important, what happens if, God forbid, EK were forced to slow down or dare I say it, go into the tank? An order from ILFC or GECAS means a hell of a lot more than an order from any individual airline.

Ummm, try reading my post. I was calling into question the absurditity of the argument. Wanting orders from a manufacturer does not equal to needing it for credibility.

In the end, IFLC will likely order the 350, so it is a bit of a moot point. This whole dance is about getting the deal they want (and/or the specifications they want). But what happens if Qantas tanks, or any other airline that has ordered a large number (and are actually in ways more troublesome financially. 100 planes, is 100 planes.

The argument that IFLC orders aren't valuable is only believed by airbus kool aid drinkers and the argument that boeing doesn't care about EK orders is only believed by boeing kool aid drinkers who think that boeing isn't going to get the sales.

cheers.
 
MIT787
Posts: 30
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:22 am

RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:05 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 88):
The argument that IFLC orders aren't valuable is only believed by airbus kool aid drinkers and the argument that boeing doesn't care about EK orders is only believed by boeing kool aid drinkers who think that boeing isn't going to get the sales.

Wow!!! Kool aid drinkers. It blows my mind sometimes when I read what people say on this site. Now, I am a huge Boeing fan, but I would never call anyone from the Airbus camp a kool- aid drinker, especially when I know the term derives from the Jonestown Masacre. Way disrespectful.
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:58 am

RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:21 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 88):
In the end, IFLC will likely order the 350, so it is a bit of a moot point. This whole dance is about getting the deal they want (and/or the specifications they want).

What I am trying to get across is the fact that if EK were to order the A350, Airbus' two newest programs are totally dependent upon one airline for more than 60% of the orders. They really need to have ILFC order this plane. As far as giving credibility to the program, that was PM talking. With the number of DIFFERENT airlines and leasing companies that have ordered the 787 so far, one airline tanking, even with 100 frames ordered will affect Boeing a heck of a lot less than Airbus.  Yeah sure
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
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RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:32 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 88):
The argument that IFLC orders aren't valuable is only believed by airbus kool aid drinkers and the argument that boeing doesn't care about EK orders is only believed by boeing kool aid drinkers who think that boeing isn't going to get the sales.

Airbus needs ILFC to buy the A350 a hell of a lot more than Boeing needs EK to buy the 787. It is called 40+ customers ordering 700+ frames by the time of rollout.  Wink
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:58 am

RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:41 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 85):
So I guess it doesn't matter to Airbus if Sir Hazy orders the A350 or not?

And then PM went silent...  spin   Wink
 
dank
Posts: 935
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:35 am

RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:53 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 90):
What I am trying to get across is the fact that if EK were to order the A350, Airbus' two newest programs are totally dependent upon one airline for more than 60% of the orders. They really need to have ILFC order this plane. As far as giving credibility to the program, that was PM talking. With the number of DIFFERENT airlines and leasing companies that have ordered the 787 so far, one airline tanking, even with 100 frames ordered will affect Boeing a heck of a lot less than Airbus.  


You seem to conveniently ignore the fact that you made a statement that had no basis in reality. That wanting an order is the same as needing one to become credible. Even if you don't think that you need a given customer to make your program credible, you might really want that order. What your first sentence in this response has to do with this statement you made earlier, I haven't the foggiest (other than some weird need to bash airbus and/or EK at any opportunity).

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 91):
Airbus needs ILFC to buy the A350 a hell of a lot more than Boeing needs EK to buy the 787. 

That may be true (I haven't said otherwise). Although, I have a feeling that if EK buys 100 787s when Dubai comes around, there will be a lot of crowing about the great order that this is, etc. from you and other B cheerleaders...

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 92):
And then PM went silent...     

Do you still seem to think that QR hasn't placed a firm order for 80 350s?

cheers.
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:58 am

RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:57 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 93):
You seem to conveniently ignore the fact that you made a statement that had no basis in reality.

Which statement is that Dank?
 
drexotica
Posts: 150
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2004 3:44 am

RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 8:57 am

Quoting MIT787 (Reply 89):
Wow!!! Kool aid drinkers. It blows my mind sometimes when I read what people say on this site. Now, I am a huge Boeing fan, but I would never call anyone from the Airbus camp a kool- aid drinker, especially when I know the term derives from the Jonestown Masacre. Way disrespectful.

"Kool-Aid drinkers" is merely a very common term applied to people that will blindly support/follow a particular person/company/orthodoxy. It is used all over the place; shockingly event outside of this forum...

Way disrespectful - no. Dismissive - yes.

Merely substitute "fan-boy", "cheerleader", or "boy-bander" if the term bothers you.
N707PA - Best looking commercial aircraft ever.
 
dank
Posts: 935
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:35 am

RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 9:03 am

Quoting DrExotica (Reply 95):
"Kool-Aid drinkers" is merely a very common term applied to people that will blindly support/follow a particular person/company/orthodoxy. It is used all over the place; shockingly event outside of this forum...

Way disrespectful - no. Dismissive - yes.

Merely substitute "fan-boy", "cheerleader", or "boy-bander" if the term bothers you.

Thanks for your clarification for me. And yes, you got my intent exactly. If I disrespected someone, I'm sorry.

cheers.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 85):
Quoting PM (Reply 73):
Ah, A.Net canard #2. A plane doesn't have credibility unless and until ILFC orders it.

So I guess it doesn't matter to Airbus if Sir Hazy orders the A350 or not?

That's the statement that I'm referring to them. Of course it matters, any order matters. Your insinuation is that if they care about an order it means they need it to have a credible program. Which is untrue. Instead you go on your anti-airbus, anti-EK crusade. Are you sure that you aren't the same person as Aminobwana?

cheers.
 
WAH64D
Posts: 744
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 4:14 am

RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 9:11 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 87):
I know many here on A.net are do not agree with this, however, an order from ILFC is a lot more important than an order from EK. Of the 200 or so A350 orders, mou's etc... how many airlines are represented? How many have now bought the 787? And how many more are going to lease the 787 from ILFC? And if you don't think that this is important, what happens if, God forbid, EK were forced to slow down or dare I say it, go into the tank? An order from ILFC or GECAS means a hell of a lot more than an order from any individual airline.

Thats one of the most ridiculous statements I've seen in a long time. The ONLY order that matters is the one that has the most profit and return custom potential. Its that simple whether it be from the largest leasing company in the business or the smallest start-up airline with a good business plan. Money talks, b*llshit walks.

Quoting Dank (Reply 96):
That's the statement that I'm referring to them. Of course it matters, any order matters. Your insinuation is that if they care about an order it means they need it to have a credible program. Which is untrue. Instead you go on your anti-airbus, anti-EK crusade. Are you sure that you aren't the same person as Aminobwana?

I asked that very question last week.

[Edited 2007-07-21 02:13:17]
I AM the No-spotalotacus.
 
User avatar
PM
Posts: 5120
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 10:45 am

Funny exchange of posts!  bigthumbsup 

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 92):
And then PM went silent... spin Wink

 Smile Actually, PM went off to do his day job. I've been offline for 21 hours and I'm going cold turkey!

Quoting Dank (Reply 93):
You seem to conveniently ignore the fact that you made a statement that had no basis in reality.



Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 94):
Which statement is that Dank?

I would offer this one as a good candidate:

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 45):
how many are firm orders [for the A350] and how many are MOU's of the 200+. The single largest purchase of 80 is an MOU at this point.

Several posters have had a good chuckle at this one but our correspondent seems reluctant to return to the subject. Wonder why...  cheeky 
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1771
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:45 am

RE: EK Seeks Guarantee From Boeing For 787-10

Sat Jul 21, 2007 12:05 pm

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 90):
What I am trying to get across is the fact that if EK were to order the A350, Airbus' two newest programs are totally dependent upon one airline for more than 60% of the orders.

Your numerical exaggeration takes away from your basic point, which has some validity. A bit under a third of A380 orders are for EK. If EK ordered 100 A350's today, they would have 36% of the order book.

(edit) these are firm orders I'm talking about.

[Edited 2007-07-21 05:06:48]

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