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LAXintl
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JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 9:28 am

Its good see they are placing profit ahead of simply growing for the sake of growth.

Quote:
JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performance

07/25/2007

JetBlue has no plans to mirror the double-digit city growth it posted in 2006 and may even pare its network after reviewing second-quarter market performance data.

JetBlue added 16 new cities last year, and yesterday CFO John Harvey told analysts the carrier wouldn't sustain that pace going forward. He predicted annual city additions would fall between two and four destinations.

While emphasizing that the financial community shouldn't "read too much" into the route review, if certain routes aren't maturing fast enough, "we'll make that tough decision [to cut the market]."

The route review is part of JetBlue's strategy to return to and sustain double-digit operating margins. Second-quarter operating margins were 10%, compared with 7.7% a year ago. Harvey pointed out that a carrier could add only so many new markets at a time, and 16 in one year is a drag on profit and loss. Last fall, one-third of JetBlue's available seat miles were in markets that were 12 months old or younger, the CFO explained. He said JetBlue needed to look at markets with a maturity time of 18-20 months and decide if frequencies needed to be pulled or the carrier should exit the station.

JetBlue is also keeping an eye on new competitors, when questioned about Virgin America, noting that the carrier is "a significant brand entering the landscape." But he also countered that JetBlue had built up its own brand loyalty in the San Francisco Bay area in the past seven years. Still, JetBlue is aware that its overlap with Virgin America in measured seats is north of 10%.


Full Story (subscription required)
http://www.aviationweek.com/publicat...Network+To+Gauge+Route+Performance
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Flighty
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:03 am

Go Virgin America!!  Smile

It sounds like JetBlue is gearing up to cut a few longhaul markets. JFK-TUS and JFK-PHX might be good contenders.

It's not immaturity that hurt them so much as unprofitable, failed routes. You cut, you move on, and you use THAT for redeployment... you don't GROW at the same time, that would be ludicrous. JetBlue knows this.
 
atlaaron
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:09 am

I think PIT could get cut.
 
thirteenright
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:16 am

I dont see JFK-PHX getting cut, but I could understand if JFK-TUS, JFK-PDX, and IAD-LAS did.
 
HPAEAA
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:18 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 1):
JFK-PHX might be good contenders.

Hmm.. that would surprise me.... I thought that route always did well for them... personaly I'd like to see them connect some dots...
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AirTranTUS
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:51 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 1):
JFK-TUS

We'll still have CO.
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LGAtoIND
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:10 am

I would not be surprised if JFK-TUS and JFK-PIT got cut.
 
Jerseyguy
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:29 am

What could be hurting some bubble markets is a lack of service, having a late evening flight from JFK and a redeye back could hurt markets. Maybe on alot of those routes its that way because it can't support daytime operations but I'm sure not all of the markets are like that, Jetblue needs to seriously look at that.
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B752OS
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:29 am

Quoting LGAtoIND (Reply 6):
I would not be surprised if JFK-TUS and JFK-PIT got cut.

You could add BOS-PIT then if JFK-PIT could get cut. Which would be unfortunate because B6 is helping to lower fares between BOS-PIT while providng better service itself.
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:44 pm

I definitely don't see TUS sticking around; wintertime loads and yields were terrible, and summer loads and yields aren't anything to brag about either. That being said, I don't understand why JetBlue didn't connect TUS to a healthy city such as BUR or SAN first instead of going directly to JFK.

PIT could also be on the short list if it doesn't continue to improve (though, admittedly, things have gotten better there). JFK-PHX has also had some troubles - consistently lower yields than other transcons as well as lower LF's. BOS-PHX was also cancelled in June, so it may only be a matter of time, which is a shame since PHX is such a big city.

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AirTranTUS
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 1:22 pm

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 9):
I definitely don't see TUS sticking around

If they ever move the 190's west, I wonder if TUS could see 2x daily to LGB.
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HPAEAA
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 1:39 pm

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 9):
definitely don't see TUS sticking around; wintertime loads and yields were terrible, and summer loads and yields aren't anything to brag about either

True.. but it might be a pretty cheap flight, by running the aircraft on a late schedule it might cost them nothing for the plane time, just Fuel, Crew and enplanement cost... a lot of carriers don't run many planes on redeyes, might be a way for jetblue to make a buck..
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FATFlyer
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 1:50 pm

Quoting AirTranTUS (Reply 10):
If they ever move the 190's west, I wonder if TUS could see 2x daily to LGB.

Only if they were willing to give up flights from Long Beach to elsewhere. The 190s are too large for use with the commuter slots at LGB so they would have to be operated in LGB mainline slots.
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ABQ747
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 1:52 pm

Quoting ThirteenRight (Reply 3):
I dont see JFK-PHX getting cut, but I could understand if JFK-TUS, JFK-PDX, and IAD-LAS did.

In a previous discussion, you mentioned that B6 might be adding ABQ soon. Have you heard anything new?
 
AlexPorter
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 2:02 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 1):
JFK-PHX

I can't speak for yields obviously, and I haven't flown on this flight, but I've very frequently arrived to PHX's T3 at the same time as the JFK-PHX flight arrived. This is just subjective observation, but as far as loads on that flight seem to go, one of these is probably the case:
- The flight sees good loads
- The flight simply has a high rate of checking bags compared to average
- B6 passengers arriving in PHX tend to have more family members/friends show up to greet at the airport compared to average
- B6 just happens to have good loads on the specific days I tend to fly but frequently have bad loads

I say this because the B6 bag claim is right next to the DL/SY bag claim, and even when I've arrived on full SY flights on the 738, the B6 bag claim always seemed packed when that flight came in. It's a big bag claim, too - ours was also somewhat crowded, but nothing like theirs. At any rate, at least on the dates I've flown in to T3 on SY (or NW, also), there seemed to be lots of B6 passengers, and from what I recall, their claim only said JFK, so I don't think the BOS passengers were there at the time, back when that route operated.

- They did recently add a 2nd JFK frequency about a year ago, for what it's worth. Of course, it could be that the loads were bad and they were trying to add frequency to boost loads on both flights, but usually a 2nd flight is a good sign. Of course, DL did just go up to 2x B738s on the route (up from nothing at all) so that could be affecting B6 loads. Anyway, I hope B6 stays in PHX.
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SANFan
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 2:08 pm

Including B6, there are currently 7 n/s per day between PHX and JFK. There are 2 n/s to IAD and 3 to BOS, neither of which is served by B6 from Sky Harbor. It really kind of surprises me that Blue has not done more there besides the single Kennedy route. But the lack of growth and effort to expand might be the telling factor, indicative that B6 has pretty much decided to concentrate on other less "hubbish" markets.

Perhaps Blue's efforts to grab the low hanging fruit has been somewhat misdirected and some of that fruit was either over-ripe (maybe like PHX and SFO) or not ripe enough yet (maybe TUS for example?) B6 has had problems before and I think this is a very good time to re-evaluate the whole picture, make changes, and redeploy resources.

And for crying out loud, there were many of us here on A.net who (apparently correctly) felt that last years growth was way too much and way too fast, so let's see much more deliberate, smart, and managed growth divided between a few new stations and connecting-the-dots between existing, healthy ones.

bb
 
JetBlueAUS
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 2:33 pm

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 9):
BOS-PHX was also cancelled in June, so it may only be a matter of time, which is a shame since PHX is such a big city.

I believe BOS-PHX is seasonal, I could be wrong. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if B6 retimed their PHX flights. It could happen.
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AlexPorter
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 3:28 pm

Quoting JetBlueAUS (Reply 16):
I believe BOS-PHX is seasonal, I could be wrong. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if B6 retimed their PHX flights. It could happen.

I'm not sure - it may have been at one point, but for now it's definitely dropped altogether. As for the retiming - for a while both the JFK and BOS flights were redeyes. Now there are two JFK flights - one in the afternoon and one that's a redeye, while BOS is dropped.
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B6FA4ever
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 3:34 pm

i believe the JFK-PHX redeye flight is always gonna be there. the daytime flight is seasonal. kinda like JFK-SEA. summer season we have a daytime flight. off-peak/winter time there is only the red-eye flight.

its gonna be interested to see what the route map will look like by the end of 2007.

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icebird757
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 4:37 pm

Don't be suprised if a couple of routes get dropped towards the end of the year. We might see 1 or 2 new cities announced later this year but it all depends on which direction the new management team wants to go. With the addition of Russ Chew to the team, I believe that only viable markets will be served and they won't be saturated with flights. Time will tell........
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baw716
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 4:44 pm

Excuse me, but jetBlue hasn't been monitoring the profitability of its routes?

Hmmm...

This is Airline 101 stuff, guys, if the route doesn't make money, you fix the problem or drop the route. Hopefully the new management team looks at their route net quick and gets their house in order...with Virgin America starting up in a week or so, in six months it could be really ugly for them.

I don't think the E190s are helping them either, but that's another story.

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jetbluefan1
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:11 pm

Quoting B6FA4ever (Reply 18):
i believe the JFK-PHX redeye flight is always gonna be there. the daytime flight is seasonal. kinda like JFK-SEA. summer season we have a daytime flight. off-peak/winter time there is only the red-eye flight.

Actually, the JFK-PHX flight was 2x last winter, and so far it is scheduled to be 2x this winter as well. I guess it's not as seasonal as other routes?

Quoting SANFan (Reply 15):
really kind of surprises me that Blue has not done more there besides the single Kennedy route.

B6 used to operate BOS-PHX, which was a big money-loser. I don't think IAD-PHX would fair any better.

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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:19 pm

So why doesn't this happen monthly, or weekly, or on a continuous basis? You would think they have whole departments to do this. Hell, if I am writing aritificial intelligence routines for my freakin' GAME to analyze route profitability - both for potential routes and the ones that the computer-controlled airlines are flying, then you think that a real-world airline would have this going on constantly! Duh.
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jetbluefan1
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:24 pm

The difference is that the old management was more likely a bit more lenient on letting new routes mature and "prove" themselves. It looks like the new management team is a lot more strict with its standards, especially with fuel at $73/bbl.

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frequentflyer
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:40 pm

Anybody knows how BOS-AUS is doingload-wise?
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Mikey711MN
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:35 pm

Quoting InnocuousFox (Reply 22):
So why doesn't this happen monthly, or weekly, or on a continuous basis? You would think they have whole departments to do this.

I'm pretty sure that this does go on, but perhaps the article--which I did not read by virtue of req'd subscription--simply highlighted a more forest-from-the-trees assessment of the network vis-a-vis a more specific, microeconomic, route-by-route daily analysis that those departments are responsible for. More or less to ensure that the left hand knows what the right hand is doing, I would suppose.

With this level of analysis, management may revisit the metrics behind keeping and dropping (or for that matter adding) routes, including maturity time, capacity, etc. And with a new management philosophy, I would expect this to be a natural process that doesn't always garner media attention. So I'm genuinely unclear on why their particular efforts caught the attention of Aviation Week.

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mtb555
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Wed Jul 25, 2007 11:44 pm

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 9):
definitely don't see TUS sticking around; wintertime loads and yields were terrible, and summer loads and yields aren't anything to brag about either

True, it's a good route, but it's nothing spectacular to cling on to. I, personally, thought CMH was going to get axed when it started because of the ridiculously low pax counts, but now that's done a 180 and those flights are consistently full, or near full. I think they could afford to cut the JFK-PIT and JFK-RIC to 3x daily instead of 4x daily. Maybe the late flight could be canceled out (low pax counts and usually delayed from the congestion at the airport).

Quoting B6FA4ever (Reply 18):
i believe the JFK-PHX redeye flight is always gonna be there. the daytime flight is seasonal. kinda like JFK-SEA. summer season we have a daytime flight. off-peak/winter time there is only the red-eye flight.

True. SJC, SEA, and PHX will reduce to 1x daily once September/October rolls around, and I believe SAN will reduce to 2x daily. JFK-PHX is usually a good flight loadwise both times of the day, and since the morning flight is seasonal, that evening one that sticks around year-round will see good loads.

One interesting fact (found this on their timetable) is that MSY is increasing to 3x daily, but the capacity would be the same as it were on the 2x daily schedule. MSY is being shifted to a E190, and will have the same two flights as they have now, plus the evening one they used to operate prior to the hurricane (I believe it departs in the 2000 hour).
 
jetboy319
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 12:23 am

Quoting ThirteenRight (Reply 3):
JFK-PDX

Really? I too can't speak of yields, but every time I have flown on this flight (5-6 times) it has been full.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 12:32 am

Pardon me but I would think an airline is always monitoring it's routes and they are undergoing constant evaluation to measure performance anyway? So why is this news?
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mtb555
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 12:35 am

Quoting Jetboy319 (Reply 27):
Really? I too can't speak of yields, but every time I have flown on this flight (5-6 times) it has been full

Very true, JFK-PDX is consistently full every night. I don't think that'll be cut.
 
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yellowtail
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 12:36 am

and how is the HOU performing now?...I thought that was one that was underperfroming
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mtb555
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Perfor

Thu Jul 26, 2007 12:39 am

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 30):
and how is the HOU performing now?...I thought that was one that was underperfroming

HOU wasn't very impressive when it was operated on the A320 in the beginning. Now that it was switched to the E190, it's generally full and if not sold out, at least 80-90% load. I think they'll keep it on the E190 since the switch to it was such a success.
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 12:50 am

Quoting Frequentflyer (Reply 24):
Anybody knows how BOS-AUS is doingload-wise?

Very good. AUS is a real winner for B6, from both BOS and JFK, though JFK performs better for obvious reasons. Though BOS does well, I don't think it warrants a second flight (yet).

Quoting Mtb555 (Reply 26):
, personally, thought CMH was going to get axed when it started because of the ridiculously low pax counts, but now that's done a 180 and those flights are consistently full, or near full. I think they could afford to cut the JFK-PIT and JFK-RIC to 3x daily instead of 4x daily. Maybe the late flight could be canceled out (low pax counts and usually delayed from the congestion at the airport).

CMH really has picked up. It saw a June LF of 78%, which is very good considering that it is one of B6's business-oriented markets, and it's still one of B6's newest cities.

Quoting Jetboy319 (Reply 27):
Really? I too can't speak of yields, but every time I have flown on this flight (5-6 times) it has been full.

PDX does very well with its daily flight. Very good yields and very good loads in summertime, though wintertime sees some mediocrity, but that's expected.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 28):
Pardon me but I would think an airline is always monitoring it's routes and they are undergoing constant evaluation to measure performance anyway? So why is this news?

Because Barger specifically stated that JetBlue is in the middle of a 90-day review, and that underperforming routes can be expected to be cut. It's new management, so chances are that JetBlue will see significant changes - including changes in its route network.

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 30):
and how is the HOU performing now?...I thought that was one that was underperfroming

HOU was terrible when it first started. However, since its shift to E190s from A320s, the route has really picked up and done a great job. Yields are high as are loads (which should be expected because of the lower capacity). The route really started picking up this past spring; the big test will be to see how it does in the fall/winter. Keep in mind that TZ dropped LGA-HOU not too long ago, so that helped and should continue to help with year-over-year comparisons.

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Flighty
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:09 am

Quoting Mtb555 (Reply 31):
HOU wasn't very impressive when it was operated on the A320 in the beginning. Now that it was switched to the E190, it's generally full and if not sold out, at least 80-90% load. I think they'll keep it on the E190 since the switch to it was such a success.

Anybody who doubts the E-190 is a necessary tool for JetBlue, read the above.

Quoting InnocuousFox (Reply 22):
So why doesn't this happen monthly, or weekly, or on a continuous basis? You would think they have whole departments to do this. Hell, if I am writing aritificial intelligence routines for my freakin' GAME to analyze route profitability - both for potential routes and the ones that the computer-controlled airlines are flying, then you think that a real-world airline would have this going on constantly! Duh.

The way I read this, B6 is now open to reducing their fleet. There is nothing wrong with B6 that cutting a dozen A320s would not fix. The conditions this year are as good as they will get. Either B6 makes money now, or they need to become an airline that makes money right now.
 
flyboyaz
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 2:12 am

Quoting AirTranTUS (Reply 5):
We'll still have CO

Yes for now...I would bet that if B6 disappeared out of TUS, the TUS-EWR would go back to seasonal and here and there. They only put it back because Jetblue came in. The loads have been excellent however, so maybe we'll luck out!

Quoting AirTranTUS (Reply 10):
If they ever move the 190's west, I wonder if TUS could see 2x daily to LGB.

Really they should have considered TUS-OAK, but now with WN serving the route nonstop in Nov, probably not going ot happen.
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SANFan
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 3:33 am

If and when the 190s arrive in the west, B6 will be in a whole new ballgame. There are tons of new routes in the west (as well as a few existing ones), all involving current B6 stations, that should do beautifully with the smaller and more economical airplane. After they get their feet wet in the intra-west region, there are certainly many new cities that could be added to the Blue network as well.

And as has been mentioned, with Virgin airborne in a little over a week, and some of their beginning routes now known, B6 would be very smart, if they do plan on flying within the west, doing it sooner rather than later; I think there is little doubt that next year will see lots of red-and-white airplanes flying all over the west, and not just from SFO!

Quoting Flighty (Reply 33):
The way I read this, B6 is now open to reducing their fleet. There is nothing wrong with B6 that cutting a dozen A320s would not fix.

Rather than grounding Airbi (or reducing their fleet size by 12%!), I think that if a few poorly-performing cities are shut down, at least most of those available 320s could easily be used elsewhere for some new P-2-P service between healthy, well-producing jetBlue stations. Suggestions for such routes will flood A.net, I'm sure, once we find out for sure which cities are alive and well, and which are dead.

bb
 
AlexPorter
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 4:11 am

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 21):
Actually, the JFK-PHX flight was 2x last winter, and so far it is scheduled to be 2x this winter as well. I guess it's not as seasonal as other routes?

JFK-PHX may be an exception, but nearly all PHX routes in general have more demand in the winter, at least those leisure routes, because PHX is a warm weather destination. Are more people on the PHX-JFK flights actually from Phoenix and going to New York (not the other way around)? That could explain why they actually get more demand in the summer. But in general, the seasonalities of the two cities really should balance out demand. People from Phoenix go visit New York in the summer and fall, while people from New York go visit Phoenix in winter and spring.
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bnatraveler
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 4:24 am

What about BNA? I heard it wasn't doing well in the beginning (and I've flown it a few times and can concur), but I am not sure how it is doing now. Would they keep it purely because of the benefit of the EMBRAER facility on the field?
 
727LOVER
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 4:26 am

SRQ? Any info on it?
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LAXintl
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 4:33 am

Quoting AlexPorter (Reply 36):
nearly all PHX routes in general have more demand in the winter

No Phoenix is not parse a "winter" destination, the market actually is quite steady all year long.

PHX Monthly boardings per month in 2006.
Jan - 1,633,344
Feb - 1,553,143
Mar - 1,876,193
Apr - 1,802,265
May - 1,801,896
Jun - 1,814,468
Jul - 1,824,814
Aug - 1,701,567
Sep - 1,600,693
Oct - 1,658,906
Nov - 1,689,182
Dec - 1,687,587

As comparison much smaller Tucson however is much more seasonal with a winter/spring peak.

Jan - 166,526
Feb - 178,785
Mar - 205,930
Apr - 195,241
May - 193,741
Jun - 174,972
Jul - 168,797
Aug - 153,157
Sep - 149,069
Oct - 176,436
Nov - 179,411
Dec - 179,838
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mtb555
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RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Perfor

Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:24 am

Quoting BNAtraveler (Reply 37):
What about BNA?

From what I see, BNA is typically a fairly full flight on average. I know the first two flights each day are near full, the one that leaves in the 2100 hour is usually about 60-70% full. It's a good route, and people are hopping on it, but it's not sold out every flight. I hope they keep it, I have family there.

Quoting SANFan (Reply 35):
If and when the 190s arrive in the west, B6 will be in a whole new ballgame. There are tons of new routes in the west (as well as a few existing ones), all involving current B6 stations, that should do beautifully with the smaller and more economical airplane.

Very true SANFan... the LAS-LGB route could totally use a 190 over a 320. I rode the early flight 2x and both were barely half full on a 320. Could use the 190s on LGB-OAK, LGB-SMF, LAS-LGB. I'm not sure how the loads are for those, but even if they bumped up service to more frequencies on a smaller a/c, they may fill 3 190s over 2 320s and save fuel. That's what they're doing with JFK-MSY this fall.
 
FATFlyer
Posts: 4958
Joined: Fri May 18, 2001 4:12 am

RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 6:00 am

Although don't forget LGB is slot controlled. Any replacement by 190s simply means they operate fewer seats but the same number of flights. They cannot increase frequency unless slots become available.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness." - Mark Twain
 
mtb555
Posts: 62
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:01 pm

RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 6:20 am

Quoting FATFlyer (Reply 41):
Although don't forget LGB is slot controlled. Any replacement by 190s simply means they operate fewer seats but the same number of flights. They cannot increase frequency unless slots become available.

Did not know that, thanks for that info. I think they should look at the load factors for their departures out of LGB that stay within California, if the 190 would fill up rather than using a 320 with a lot of open seats, it would be a smart move financially to swap a/c's.
 
steeler83
Posts: 7694
Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2006 2:06 pm

RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:17 am

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 9):
PIT could also be on the short list if it doesn't continue to improve (though, admittedly, things have gotten better there).

What B6 can do now with PIT-JFK and BOS is bump up the fares a little. The market is already stimulated, so I don't think people will, or should mind a fare bump up to 50-70 bucks one way...

Have they done that yet?
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:28 am

Quoting HPAEAA (Reply 11):
True.. but it might be a pretty cheap flight

There is no such thing as a cheap flight when jet fuel is north of $2/gal. And night time flights (which B6 does alot of) have lower yields, esp. if the single nighttime roundtrip is the only flight in the market. If you operate a redeye roundtrip to round out a day time schedules your yields are not bad but redeye roundrips as the sole nonstops in a market do not generally generate good revenue.

Quoting Mtb555 (Reply 29):
Very true, JFK-PDX is consistently full every night.

and the Pacific NW is very seasonal. You can fill any flight in the summer but there are alot of days between Labor Day and the next Memorial Day when there is very low demand. And DL now has a flight in the market which is at least partially supported by its international operation - not sure if they have retimed it to be a daytime flight after the summer.
 
B752OS
Posts: 1221
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:38 am

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 43):

What B6 can do now with PIT-JFK and BOS is bump up the fares a little. The market is already stimulated, so I don't think people will, or should mind a fare bump up to 50-70 bucks one way...

The nice thing about B6 entering the very high yielding BOS-PIT market is that they were supposed to drive down prices. I have a couple of friends who fly BOS-PIT-BOS 3-4 times a month and they loved it when B6 entered the market, not only due to the lower fares, but the better service B6 offers over US.
 
skyyblue
Posts: 343
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:37 am

RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 12:21 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 44):
And night time flights (which B6 does alot of) have lower yields, esp. if the single nighttime roundtrip is the only flight in the market.

According to upper management, our island redeye turns, specifically STI, are some of our best performing routes.
 
panamair
Posts: 4147
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 3:37 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 44):
And DL now has a flight in the market which is at least partially supported by its international operation - not sure if they have retimed it to be a daytime flight after the summer.

Yes, DL has retimed the PDX-JFK to be a day flight to better connect with the international bank starting in September; JFK-PDX continues to be an evening flight.
 
laca773
Posts: 2080
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2004 7:10 am

RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 4:00 pm

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 9):
definitely don't see TUS sticking around; wintertime loads and yields were terrible, and summer loads and yields aren't anything to brag about either. That being said, I don't understand why JetBlue didn't connect TUS to a healthy city such as BUR or SAN first instead of going directly to JFK.

PIT could also be on the short list if it doesn't continue to improve (though, admittedly, things have gotten better there). JFK-PHX has also had some troubles - consistently lower yields than other transcons as well as lower LF's. BOS-PHX was also cancelled in June, so it may only be a matter of time, which is a shame since PHX is such a big city.

There was another thread about B6 @ TUS and with all of the talk about switching a/c based on LF's and yield, perhaps they can make JFK-TUS-JFK work with a E90! AC flies E90s from PHX to YYZ and I'd think B6 can do the same as well to JFK and make the TUS service work for everyone. Just my two cents.

B6 offers a really great product over US to JFK though if they are having any type of problems is it because it's just a spoke type of route while US pulls in a lot of transfers through their hub in PHX?

Does anyone know if B6 has thought about adding service into the remarkably quiet ONT? I think they can do great in there if they open up specific routes that do need service and do so with the E90s since the 320s might be too big for some routes.
I feel SJC can use some service and B6 just might be successful with it. There too, perhaps they can bring some E90s in there instead of 320s (where it's economically feasible and they won't take hits on payload restrictions). I know many will come back and say, that's WN's territory and B6 won't think of opening anything they might go head to head with them. There are markets from SJC that lack service and surely can use more flights. SJC is the "step-child" airport in the Bay Area like ONT is in Southern California. I feel there's definitely potential for them there.

Any thoughts.....?

LACA773
 
User avatar
SANFan
Posts: 5244
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

RE: JetBlue Examines Network To Gauge Route Performanc

Thu Jul 26, 2007 6:06 pm

Quoting LACA773 (Reply 48):
SJC is the "step-child" airport in the Bay Area like ONT is in Southern California. I feel there's definitely potential for them there.

Any thoughts.....?

I remember looking up the service history of both ONT and SJC for a similar thread earlier this year and I think these are both examples of stations that B6 has not grown, probably because they don't see the need (or traffic) there. Perhaps under the previous management team (as has been suggested already in this thread) there was more of a "wait for the growth to come in the future" attitude than there appears to be now.

My guess would be that we could very well see ONT closed down and, with less likelyhood, SJC. With the latter, B6 has a major focus city in Oakland and now SFO (if they keep that station open) and that might just be too much. The fate of ONT may hinge on whether or not LAX is finally opened by Blue...

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