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keesje
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Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:55 pm

"Obviously we are looking at the 787 carefully now, but the (current models) aren't quite big enough for what we want," Tyler said.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...OWJONESDJONLINE000607_FORTUNE5.htm

Join the line EK, BA, QR, QF.

787-10, XWB, Boeing 777, GE90, it is becoming an familiar story.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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teme82
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:59 pm

Looks like team A have something for CX to replace it's 777 when they must be replaced Big grin
Flying high and low
 
columba
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Range

Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:15 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Join the line EK, BA, QR, QF.

Don´t forget LH, they were about the first who said that the 787 in its current form is to small for their needs.

It will be intersting to see what Cathay is up, too, they are clearly a candidate for the A380 and 747-8I as well.
Since Cathay is good customer of manufacturers anything can happen:
A380, A350
747-8 and 787
or a mixed Airbus Boeing order.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
EI321
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:21 pm

Dont Cathay have some of the oldest 777-200s around? Are these being replaced with aircraft currently on order (77W & A333)?
 
ebbuk
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Range

Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:34 pm

Well what will Boeing do? Can they commit to the -10 with their huge 787 backlog and overcome the manufacturing hurdles that has forced an $500 million overspend on R+D (FT 25/7) ie, can they have the cake and eat it too?

Conversely, with other carriers voicing similar size concerns can the XWB satisfy their need for extra seats, without GE coming on board? Or is GE waiting for Boeing to commit to the -10 too before slotting onto the XWB?

Questions.... this in my opinion is Airbus' to lose. There must be a choice of engines for at least 2 of the XWB's.
 
laca773
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Thu Jul 26, 2007 10:34 pm

With another very important Boeing customer making the same comments as other important Boeing customers have about the size of the current 78Xs series' available, do you guys & gals think the chance of Boeing introducing the 787-10 is coming closer to reality now?. I'm sure Boeing doesn't want to miss out on a very important and most likely sizable order from CX.

LACA773
 
FLYGUY767
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:35 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Join the line EK, BA, QR, QF.

787-10, XWB, Boeing 777, GE90, it is becoming an familiar story.

Welcome to my RU List...

Thanks for the evidence to back up the post!

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
cloudyapple
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Range

Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:35 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 3):
Dont Cathay have some of the oldest 777-200s around?

They have the OLDEST ONE amongst their B772As (N7771). But any new aircraft might not be for replacing anything. Their oldest type in the fleet - B744 - is still being added in numbers. B772A replacement might not happen for another 10 years. They also have some of the oldest A333 and A343, which are quite a bit bigger than the B788/B789. Allowing for growth these current B787s are plainly too small.

They will likely wait till 1) their own B773ERs come into service, 2) A388 enters service, 3) B788 enters service before making any decisions.
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
 
pnwtraveler
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:55 pm

I think once we have had the first flight and some of the testing complete so that Boeing has some hard data and confidence, I see a second line starting up sooner. That would facilitate more versions faster. I have a relative at Boeing and he indicated it was a very strong probablility. He also said that more enhancements were on their way for the 747-8 as a direct result of "talks" with some new customers for the model. He didn't elaborate but seemed to feel that a couple of orders were in the bag but not public or signed.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:05 am

Considering CX's entire fleet is composed of "300+ seaters" including the A333, A340, 777 and 747, I am not surprised they find the 787-9 to be too small. Same with LH, who has a similar fleet, and QF and EK (who use A332s mostly on regional flights).

This will make it a bit harder for Boeing to get a toe-hold in (though they have done so with QF) to then leverage larger and higher-gross weight future 787 derivatives. On the flip side, with Airbus still over a year away from finalizing the A350 to meet the performance they have "guaranteed", this should not mean Airbus is in an automatic lock. If Airbus needs to make the A350 heavier (in MTOW and MEW) to meet those performance targets (and the A350-1000 has already gone up close to 10t in MTOW in the past few months), it could affect her long-term economics compared to a lighter MTOW/MEW 787 variant with similar capacities and range.

The 787-10 is a done deal, but again, the 787-8 and 787-9 are so darn popular that Boeing finds itself in an "embarrassment of riches" situation. A handful of (very important) airlines want something bigger, but many armfuls of airlines want what is available now, even if they have to wait close to a decade to get it. That has to weigh somewhat on the minds of airlines like EK, BA, and CX who have yet to make their decision. They see the A350 offering them the raw capacity they desire, yet they see so many airlines continue to choose the 787, even for replacing "300 seaters" like the A333 and A343 that would better be matched in capacity by a 787-10, and they must be asking themselves "do we go with the 'market darling' or do we take a chance on the A350'?" I think this is why, in part, those deals have not defaulted to Airbus and the A350. Even QR hedged their bets, and may order near equal numbers of A350s and 787s (if the rumors of QR converting their 30 options is true).
 
pnwtraveler
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:19 am

Forgot to mention that the feeling is when the 787-10 is announced some of the 9 orders will be converted to 10's. I think this has been overted discussed with specific airlines and whether announced is written into contracts and expected.
 
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keesje
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:21 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
The 787-10 is a done deal,

I think it's not Boeing specified the 787-10 now nearly 2 years ago, but the airlines didn't agree.

Who again stated the 7e7 was a little small again, 4 yrs ago?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
"do we go with the 'market darling' or do we take a chance on the A350'?"

I think the numbers of 787 ordered are very impressive. However the line of major airlines that have not chosen the 787 for various reasons is also impressive. BA, LH, AF/KLM, AA, UA, DL, CX, MH, EK, ..

Also a number of 787 publicly insisted they are still interested in the A350XWB: QF, VS, SQ

Then we have the list of airlines decided to order A330/XWB instead of the 787/777.

I think it is to early to point out a market darling / take a chance A350.

Let's wait for the 787s to make it's first flight for a start.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Stitch
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:23 am

Quoting Pnwtraveler (Reply 10):
Forgot to mention that the feeling is when the 787-10 is announced some of the 9 orders will be converted to 10's. I think this has been overted discussed with specific airlines and whether announced is written into contracts and expected.

Agreed. This will free up some slots prior to the 787-10 production start date, allowing Boeing to move up existing orders and help provide earlier deliveries for the first 787-10s.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:35 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
I think it's not Boeing specified the 787-10 now nearly 2 years ago, but the airlines didn't agree.

True, but then the same was essentially said about the A350 vs. the A350XWB and look how much time, effort, and money Airbus is expending on making the A350XWB a reality. The 787-10 won't need that level of engineering effort, but neither is she just a matter of inserting a 3m plug between Sections 41/43 and Sections 46/47.

I think it unreasonable - and a bit cheeky - for some who proclaim the virtues of the A350, which will have a gestation period prior to EIS of close to a decade, to then complain that Boeing is taking too long to build a 787-10 able to fly 300+ passengers 8000+nm.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
Also a number of 787 publicly insisted they are still interested in the A350XWB: QF, VS, SQ

Yes, but in the interim all three have taken the 787. So if Boeing can get them a 787 variant with the capacity and range they desire, they are likely candidates to take it (and in the case of SQ, perhaps even cancel the A350).

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
Then we have the list of airlines decided to order A330/XWB instead of the 787/777.

Many of those airlines fly 777s now, so they have new, modern, large long-range twins in their fleet and can wait a decade or more for the next generation like the A350. And while not as new, modern, or as long-ranged as the 787, the A330 is hardly a dog and is available now.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
I think it is to early to point out a market darling / take a chance A350.

Well the race is certainly a marathon and not a sprint.  Smile
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Range

Fri Jul 27, 2007 12:49 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
However the line of major airlines that have not chosen the 787 for various reasons is also impressive. BA, LH, AF/KLM, AA, UA, DL, CX, MH, EK, ..

However they have not chosen the A350 yet either...  Yeah sure

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
Who again stated the 7e7 was a little small again, 4 yrs ago?

You were wrong then and are still wrong today. The 787 has 776 orders (683 firm, 93 pending). I would say that the A350 is aimed too small as it targets a smaller segment of the market.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
Then we have the list of airlines decided to order A330/XWB instead of the 787/777.

Did you really expect the 787 to get all the orders and the A350 nothing?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
I think it is to early to point out a market darling

No it's not...
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
jacobin777
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:10 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
"Obviously we are looking at the 787 carefully now, but the (current models) aren't quite big enough for what we want," Tyler said.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...OWJONESDJONLINE000607_FORTUNE5.htm

Join the line EK, BA, QR, QF.

787-10, XWB, Boeing 777, GE90, it is becoming an familiar story.

..in the article, Tyler doesn't even remotely state they are looking at the A350....does it mean they are not interested in the A350 at all?  scratchchin ......

...the answer to that rhetorical question is that they most probably are interested in the A350.....however, by using the thread starter's logic, it seems as if CX has completely ruled the A350 out...
"Up the Irons!"
 
ikramerica
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:19 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 16):
however, by using the thread starter's logic, it seems as if CX has completely ruled the A350 out...

And QF, who stated that if Boeing builds the 787-10, they will buy it, is obviously absolutely buying the A350X because QF mentioned they would look at it seriously if the 787-10 doesn't happen.

I also don't recall reading any quotes that say BA thinks the 787 is too small, and as a 767 airline, they are the target market. They may also buy the A350, but that doesn't mean the 787 is too small.

VS thinks the 787 is so small, they ordered it! They also fly A340-600, and will need to replace it eventually, but again, the 787 was NOT DESIGNED TO REPLACE THE A346. At least not on a seat for seat basis...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
catdaddy63
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:20 am

It seems that these airlines are looking for something that can do the work of an A333/777 with the economics of the 787 family. Boeing will protect the 777 line and it's contribution to the bottom line by delaying the 787-10 as long as it can. With the A350XWB some time away from final configuration, B has time to get the 787 flying and work out any manufacturing kinks that may arise. They may lose a few speculative orders to A by not officially offering the -10 but they will keep these customers "In the loop" so to speak as far as configuration changes. They will probably also offer some prime slots once the second line is ready to go. The -10 should still be flying several years ahead of the XWB.
 
EA772LR
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:29 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
yet they see so many airlines continue to choose the 787, even for replacing "300 seaters" like the A333 and A343 that would better be matched in capacity by a 787-10

Exactly right. This is what VS did. They ordered the 789 to replace their 343 fleet and some options for expansion.
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
eraugrad02
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:42 am

Do we even know what boeings doing to lighten the 777 for more range/payload? Weren't they trying to do this?
Desmond MacRae in ILM
 
CX Flyboy
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:53 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 3):
Dont Cathay have some of the oldest 777-200s around? Are these being replaced with aircraft currently on order (77W & A333)?

There are currently no plans to replace the 5 772As that we operate. They have a place in the Cathay fleet and are here to stay for the time being...not to mention that they would be quite hard to get rid of!

As for the 787, CX would be interested to look at the -1000, but some in CX feel that the airframe and engine combination was not optimised for such a stretch considering the -900 is already a stretch. They feel that Boeing is trying to squeeze a little too much out of what the aircraft is capable and this is one reason why people are not jumping all over it and why Boeing has been a little cautious about launching it, in case it is a little bit of a 757-300/767-400.

The A350 looks very interesting, and if it lives up to what Airbus say it will do, CX will be very interested indeed. However the aircraft has not even reached final design freeze yet, so these figures are just guesses at best, and CX has been bitten before by figures on paper. CX are in no hurry to make a decision just yet, but as always they are keeping a good eye on what is available in the market.
 
kaitak
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:04 am

Quoting CX flyboy (Reply 25):
The A350 looks very interesting, and if it lives up to what Airbus say it will do, CX will be very interested indeed. However the aircraft has not even reached final design freeze yet, so these figures are just guesses at best, and CX has been bitten before by figures on paper.

And CX won't quickly forget their experience with the A340-600, with which they were quite disappointed initially (hopefully these issues will have sorted themselves out by now). If CX is a customer for a new Airbus model in future, they will be looking for cast iron (and for Airbus, very expensive) guarantees re performance, reliability, etc etc and they will be pretty hard to convince. Once (?) bitten ...

They make a fair point about the 787, but when there's competition between the 787-10 and A350, they'd be mad to say, "oh we'll definitely buy this," especially - as CX Flyboy says, they're in no hurry to place an order.

I still see CX as a 748I (and definitely, the 748F) customer, largely because cargo is hugely important to CX. That doesn't rule out the 350 of course, but it does seem to favour the 787-10, since Boeing could presumably do a very good deal for both - buying the old 744s and 777s and generally helping to tidy up the fleet.
 
bbobbo
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Range

Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:06 am

Quoting ERAUgrad02 (Reply 23):
Do we even know what boeings doing to lighten the 777 for more range/payload? Weren't they trying to do this?

According to the FlightGlobal 787 delay contingency article, they're holding off on any 777 improvements:

Quote:
Boeing CFO James Bell says that next year's R&D budget includes no funds to launch a new 777 variant to compete against Airbus.

McNerney adds: "We have time to think abut how we would respond. ... We have a number of technologies that can be inserted [in a 777-type] in plenty of time to respond to the A350."

From FlightGlobal Boeing readies plans for 787 first flight delay
 
osiris30
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:08 am

Quoting CX flyboy (Reply 25):
but some in CX feel that the airframe and engine combination was not optimised for such a stretch considering the -900 is already a stretch.

But they don't feel that the 358, 359 and 3510 suffer the same issue??? Intersting.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
EI321
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:18 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 28):
Quoting CX flyboy (Reply 25):
but some in CX feel that the airframe and engine combination was not optimised for such a stretch considering the -900 is already a stretch.

But they don't feel that the 358, 359 and 3510 suffer the same issue??? Intersting.

Isn't it generally regarded that the A359 is the baseline platform for the airbus, whereas some say that the 788 is the base for the boeing? If thats the case then the 787-10 would be a double stretch, whereas the A350-100 would be a single stretch. Personally I'm a bit sceptical that boeing would optimise the 787 around the -8. The smaller end of the market wont be where the long term orders will come from IMO, and thats also what has been indicated by market forecasts. The 767-200/A310/A300 replacement market will be the first to arise from 2008, and the 777/A330/A340 replacement market will follow from 2012 onwards.
 
osiris30
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:19 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 29):
No doubt that the 787-10ER will be the perfect 777-200ER replacement. The problem is when we will see this plane enter service. If the normal 787-10 (777-200A replacement) enters service around 2014, we can expect the 787-10ER around 2016-2017.

I doubt you'll see a 787-10ER ever, as I'm guessing the stock 787-10 will be what we've often thought of the 787-10ER being. That opens up the 787-11 on the same platform + a stretch. My $0.02 anyway.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
klkla
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:50 am

Reading between the lines it seems that Cathay, Qantas and Emirates really do not want to have to rely on the A350 because they realize that the 787 in general is superior (lets face it the carbon panels approach is wrong and was only chosen to move EIS up a year or so because they are so far behind with their R&D with this technology) and are prodding Boeing in every way possible (including publicly, which is rare) to make a bigger 787.

IMHO Boeing will have no choice to commit to 787-10 or Y3 in the very near future.
 
ZiggyStardust
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 2:53 am

Another point that hasn't been discussed is that Cathay finds the 787 a little "short ranged". How much range are they looking for and which routes require the extra range?
 
khobar
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:02 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
I think it's not Boeing specified the 787-10 now nearly 2 years ago, but the airlines didn't agree.

No they didn't. The 787-10 hasn't been spec'd at all mainly because Boeing is still working on what they need to be working on.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
Who again stated the 7e7 was a little small again, 4 yrs ago?

I dunno who made that error. Was it you?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
BA, LH, AF/KLM, AA, UA, DL, CX, MH, EK, ..

As already pointed out, none have ordered the XWB either. Are you suggesting it's also too small? Must be.

Quoting CX flyboy (Reply 20):
As for the 787, CX would be interested to look at the -1000, but some in CX feel that the airframe and engine combination was not optimised for such a stretch considering the -900 is already a stretch.

Are you talking about Airbus here? -1000, -900???
 
777236ER
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:11 am

There are myriad problems with the 787-10. Firstly, it'll destroy the 777. Boeing have sold just under 800 of them, which considering the era and technology involved isn't enough. Secondly, for it to compete with the A350XWB-9 and A350XWB-10 it'll probably need a bit of re-engineering, adding expense to the programme and pulling engineers from other, more pressing matters after 787 EIS (Y1 and Y3). Thirdly, Boeing pushing the size of the 787 could lead Airbus to consider an A350XWB-11, which would have similar R&D costs to a 787-10, with potentially more benefits for Airbus. The A350XWB family with an -11 would look better than the 787 family, with the poorly-selling -3. An A350XWB-11 would really kill the 777 programme dead. Fourthly, the 787 success has been with the -8 so far, the -9 accounts for only about 18% of 787 orders; assuming the -10 will sell less than that, the ROI doesn't look good.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
Leskova
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:18 am

A lot of very predictable posts in this thread...

Anyhow:

Quoting Khobar (Reply 28):
Quoting CX flyboy (Reply 20):
As for the 787, CX would be interested to look at the -1000, but some in CX feel that the airframe and engine combination was not optimised for such a stretch considering the -900 is already a stretch.

Are you talking about Airbus here? -1000, -900???

Why would he be talking about Airbus in a sentence starting with "As for the 787"?? Since when is Airbus the company building the 787?
Smile - it confuses people!
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:30 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
Who again stated the 7e7 was a little small again, 4 yrs ago?

 scratchchin I wonder who that was, and if he still holds that opinion as sales pass the 700 mark?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
I think it's not Boeing specified the 787-10 now nearly 2 years ago, but the airlines didn't agree.

I have to agree with Khobar above; Boeing has yet to "specify" the B787-10. They have only said that an enlarged version would be produced as the -10; the specifications remain under debate. That line-up of CX, EK, BA, and QF will have lots of influence in defining what the -10 will be.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:51 am

Quoting Bbobbo (Reply 22):

According to the FlightGlobal 787 delay contingency article, they're holding off on any 777 improvements

...and yet according to several other sources of equal-if-not-greater credibility, a fortified 777(-like aircraft?) could come so relatively soon as to pre-date a 737NG replacement.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
bbobbo
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:16 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 32):
Quoting Bbobbo (Reply 22):

According to the FlightGlobal 787 delay contingency article, they're holding off on any 777 improvements

...and yet according to several other sources of equal-if-not-greater credibility, a fortified 777(-like aircraft?) could come so relatively soon as to pre-date a 737NG replacement.

You know of sources that have equal or greater credibility than Boeing CEO Jim McNerney and CFO James Bell?
 
kbdude
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:20 am

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 29):
Boeing have sold just under 800 of them, which considering the era and technology involved isn't enough. Secondly, for it to compete with the A350XWB-9 and A350XWB-10 it'll probably need a bit of re-engineering, adding expense to the programme and pulling engineers from other, more pressing matters after 787 EIS (Y1 and Y3).

huh... according to the BOEING website... the 777 program has 973 Firm orders. I think the 777 program has more than just paid itself off.... but has made handsome ROI for Boeing. In fact i expect it too break the 1000 firm order barrier late this year or early next year.

http://active.boeing.com/commercial/...definedselection.cfm&pageid=m15527

Quoting EI321 (Reply 24):
Isn't it generally regarded that the A359 is the baseline platform for the airbus, whereas some say that the 788 is the base for the boeing? If thats the case then the 787-10 would be a double stretch, whereas the A350-100 would be a single stretch. Personally I'm a bit sceptical that boeing would optimise the 787 around the -8.

I agree...I do not think the 787-8 is the baseline for the 787 frame. I really think it is the 787-9. However, Boeing launched the smaller version as they wanted to hit the mid-WB fleet renewal wave. By looking at the current 787 order book... i think they got it right.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Range

Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:20 am

Quoting Bbobbo (Reply 33):
You know of sources that have equal or greater credibility than Boeing CEO Jim McNerney and CFO James Bell?

Nope, just FlightGlobal... whose word (including "quotes") I would not automatically assume to be the official pronouncement of the aforementioned gentlemen, particularly in light of somewhat contradictory information.

Next?
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DIA
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:31 am

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 29):
Fourthly, the 787 success has been with the -8 so far, the -9 accounts for only about 18% of 787 orders; assuming the -10 will sell less than that, the ROI doesn't look good.

Interesting overall take, 777236ER. I would however respectfully challenge the statement I quoted you on just above. I would think if the 787-10 basically takes over the 772 slot, sales of this version would be far greater than the -9. There will be many 772s (and similar-size Airbuses) to replace in the coming years. Thoughts?
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CO787EWR
Posts: 167
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 4:57 am

Ok first DL and AA are buying/leasing the 787. Building this 787-10 puts Boeing in the biggest pickle ever, a 787-10 with 8000nm+ range and the with the same 20% better fuel efficiency as the other 787's will kill the 777 almost completely the only model which would sell is the 77W the LR would be dead basically unless an airline needed 9400nm range for a route. I doubt Boeing wants to kill the 777 so they tried the "kop" out route with the basic stretch but as you see some airlines (EK) want more range. So Boeing has a descion to make. Also i believe that the airlines that keep their planes for a long time want 787's due to the barrels vs panels and the maintenance savings.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 5:25 am

Quoting CO787EWR (Reply 37):
Ok first DL and AA are buying/leasing the 787. Building this 787-10 puts Boeing in the biggest pickle ever, a 787-10 with 8000nm+ range and the with the same 20% better fuel efficiency as the other 787's will kill the 777 almost completely the only model which would sell is the 77W the LR would be dead basically unless an airline needed 9400nm range for a route.



Quoting 777236ER (Reply 29):
There are myriad problems with the 787-10. Firstly, it'll destroy the 777. Boeing have sold just under 800 of them, which considering the era and technology involved isn't enough. Secondly, for it to compete with the A350XWB-9 and A350XWB-10 it'll probably need a bit of re-engineering, adding expense to the programme and pulling engineers from other, more pressing matters after 787 EIS (Y1 and Y3). Thirdly, Boeing pushing the size of the 787 could lead Airbus to consider an A350XWB-11, which would have similar R&D costs to a 787-10, with potentially more benefits for Airbus. The A350XWB family with an -11 would look better than the 787 family, with the poorly-selling -3. An A350XWB-11 would really kill the 777 programme dead. Fourthly, the 787 success has been with the -8 so far, the -9 accounts for only about 18% of 787 orders; assuming the -10 will sell less than that, the ROI doesn't look good.

..the problem with these arguments (which CO787EWR partially addresses) is that the B772ER sales have basically dried up....on a seat basis, the B787-10 won't compete with the B773ER....

The B772LR comes basically from the same B773ER/B772F platform, so even if Boeing doesn't sell too many -200LR's, it won't be a problem...not to mention, there is nothing built yet which would be able to compete with the -200LR on a extreme range of which the -200LR is capable of (not that many carriers require it)....

I do recall reading a quote from Boeing management stating that it was better to have "one cannibalise one's own product than having the competition eat it"...
"Up the Irons!"
 
777236ER
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 5:30 am

Quoting DIA (Reply 36):
I would think if the 787-10 basically takes over the 772 slot, sales of this version would be far greater than the -9. There will be many 772s (and similar-size Airbuses) to replace in the coming years. Thoughts?

The loaded range of a 777-200ER is in the order of 14300km, for the 787-9 it's in the order of 14800km - 15700km. With the increased length to get the 787-10 up to 777-200ER size the empty weight will increase to a point where getting a similar range out of the 787-10 will reduce its efficiency. Bear in mind the 787 design point was the 787-8, but the 777 design point was the 777-200ER. The 787 has a clear advantage over the 767, it has an advantage over the A330, but the advantage over the 777-200ER will be minimal, given the R&D required.

Boeing will be filling the 777-200ER slot with an aircraft that cost them more to make without huge advantage. What's the point? Airlines still buy 777-200ERs, why canibalise your cash cow?

Another idea, Boeing are keeping quiet on the Y3 front and the market for 747-8i and A380 looks continuingly small. 777 replacement anyone?

Quoting Kbdude (Reply 34):
the 777 program has 973 Firm orders.

So it does! Still, are Boeing really willing on sacrificing all but the 777-300ER after just over 10 years of manufacture?
Your bone's got a little machine
 
DIA
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 5:31 am

http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2007/q2/070619c_nr.html

Greater details at this link.

"It's not a matter of if for the 787-10, it's a matter of when," said Bair. "We continue to see good interest in this airplane and are working to define what the best offering will be. We have time. In fact, we've moved out the anticipated entry into service for the -10 because there is such high demand for the initial versions of the airplane. We see the 787-10 being introduced sometime around 2013." - Bair
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Shenzhen
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 5:40 am

It only makes sense that there are some airlines that would like an airplane bigger then the 787-9, especially when there are airlines that want an airplane bigger then the 380-8. Everyone likes the ability to buy something, even if they don't.
.
I''ve been wondering if the dreamlifter is capable of carrying larger barrel sections then what is requried for the 787-9??????

Cheers
 
aminobwana
Posts: 923
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 5:45 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 38):
I do recall reading a quote from Boeing management stating that it was better to have "one cannibalise one's own product than having the competition eat it"...

Cathay is one argument more to develop. And the saying stated above is dead right.

Has Airbus not killed for many years the A350 because they wanted safe some money to spend it on
the A380 ??
Has Boeing not failed to improve in time the B744, slowly killing it and inducing the 90' crisis, wishing to maintaining alive this supposed cash cow ??

As already stated repeatedly: the only reason not to develop a B7811 is if Boeing assumes that the A3510 will be very delayed or simply never reach the market. This would be a very dangerous speculation !!

regards

aminobwana
 
dl767captain
Posts: 1206
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 5:55 am

Boeing needs to quickly decide on building the 787-10 or begin a 777 replacement that can be built fast, it could easily be a wider and longer 787 with redesigned wings and satisfy 777 owners, basically make the 777 composite ( not literally but just the basics) if there was a 777 sized 787 it would be a hit, so it is time for boeing to decide on what they want to do.
 
777236ER
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RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:12 am

Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 42):

As already stated repeatedly: the only reason not to develop a B7811 is if Boeing assumes that the A3510 will be very delayed or simply never reach the market

There are many reasons not to develop a 787-11.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
bbobbo
Posts: 173
Joined: Tue Dec 05, 2006 7:33 am

RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Range

Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:16 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 35):
Quoting Bbobbo (Reply 33):
You know of sources that have equal or greater credibility than Boeing CEO Jim McNerney and CFO James Bell?

Nope, just FlightGlobal... whose word (including "quotes") I would not automatically assume to be the official pronouncement of the aforementioned gentlemen, particularly in light of somewhat contradictory information.

Next?

How about from yesterday's Boeing conference call, then:

Quote:
Ron Epstein, Merrill Lynch: Just a quick product strategy question. Given some of the traction that the A350 has gotten in the marketplace, particularly on the heels of LeBourget, can you speak about your thinking on the triple-7 and the possibility of modifying it, replacing it, or how you're thinking about the product strategy with triple-7?

Jim McNerney: Well, I think there's no doubt that the model, the -1000 A350 model, is in part targeted at the long-range triple-7. Now, I'm not sure when that model will be delivered--you know, 7, 8, 9 years from now--I'm not sure it's exactly been articulated. But we have time to think about how we would respond to that, and it should have materialized as planned. And we are examining lots of options, but I think the current thinking is that there will be some technology insertions we can make that will effectively respond to an airplane that is already a little bit bigger than the A350, the -1000, and has some customer advantages already built in. I mean, it's the most modern long-range airplane in the world right now, these triple-7s, so we have time to think about it. And we have some technologies that we've based the 787 on, and some other technologies that can be inserted in plenty of time to respond effectively.



Quote:
JB Groh, D.A. Davidson: When I look at the decline in the R&D that you've got baked into your '08 guidance of $400 million, is the majority of that in BCA, and how should we be thinking about the split between the two--should IDS sort of remain constant as a percentage of sales and should the decline come mostly in BCA? And then, I'm guessing that there's something factored in for tweaks to triple-7 as well as on-going 787?

James Bell: Yeah, the absolutely--the decline, where you'll see the reduction in R&D will absolutely be in BCA. IDS will run at a more constant level, at a very minimal level. So most of that would be BCA related. Now, there's nothing--if you're asking if there's something there for triple-7 in response yet to a A350--probably not distinctly. I think there is something that we would have to deal with generic kinds of things that could be devoted to that for some initial studies if needed, but it would--the decline would definitely be in BCA and would be related to the work being done on 787.

JB Groh: But is your upward pressure comment related more to 787 or potential tweaks to some sort of competitive response?

James Bell: It is absolutely related to pressure on 787.

So McNerney said they will make "technology insertions" to the 777 within the next 7 years, and Bell said that there is nothing budgeted for 777 tweaks in 2008 R&D. Basically what FlightGlobal reported.

Next?
 
EI321
Posts: 5048
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 6:36 am

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 44):
Quoting Aminobwana (Reply 42):

As already stated repeatedly: the only reason not to develop a B7811 is if Boeing assumes that the A3510 will be very delayed or simply never reach the market

There are many reasons not to develop a 787-11.

Such as? The 777-300ER?
 
khobar
Posts: 1336
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 4:12 am

RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 7:31 am

Quoting Leskova (Reply 30):
Why would he be talking about Airbus in a sentence starting with "As for the 787"?? Since when is Airbus the company building the 787?

Maybe because there is no such thing as a 787-1000, or -900, or -800 - those are Airbus dash numbers?
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26784
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 7:49 am

Where the 777 will truly live and die is engines. If Rolls-Royce can deliver 25% better fuel efficiency then what GE can get out of the GE90, then that is essentially all she wrote. Boeing will still sell hundreds more 777s through 2020 just because Airbus will have sold a thousand or more A350s by then and can't deliver to existing 777 customers who need immediate expansion and replacement orders, but eventually as the 787 will render the A330 obsolete and irrelevant, so would a 25% more efficient A350 do to the 777.

However, if GE and Boeing can knock that advantage down to 10% - especially if Airbus and RR can't hit 25% as planned - then things start to change. The 777 is already a 9-abreast plane with wider seats and can do 10-abreast with (essentially) identical seat-width to the A350 at 9-abreast. It is also a fully proven design family with a decade of revenue service under her belt.

In such a scenario, we could see a repeat of the A332/763ER race where Airbus commanded a 3:2 share. Such a scenario would likely work quite well for Boeing.
 
Shenzhen
Posts: 1666
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2003 12:11 pm

RE: Cathay : Current 787 A Bit Small & Short Ranged

Fri Jul 27, 2007 7:51 am

Quoting Bbobbo (Reply 45):
So McNerney said they will make "technology insertions" to the 777 within the next 7 years, and Bell said that there is nothing budgeted for 777 tweaks in 2008 R&D. Basically what FlightGlobal reported.

Next?

Wow, and this is how it starts. The quote that you pasted in your post states "can make" then you state he said they "will make" technology insertions. I can see why one wouldn't trust a quote from someone else  Smile

You mis quoted the quoter  Smile

Cheers

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