MEA
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Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:00 pm

From the same website that tipped us off about changes to the Qantas' livery https://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/3503526 there is news that Geoff Dixon may recommend a purchase of the A350 to the board "Dixon says that after spending $12.6 billion on new fleet since 2000 the group is already committed to another $25 billion for around 130 jets for fleet upgrades and expansion by around 2015.

And that doesn’t include the billions he is thinking of recommending to the board for the all-new Airbus A350 (a very long range 400 passenger jet) in a version available around 2015, or the more fuel efficient single aisle replacement jets that Boeing and Airbus say they may start making in the same year."

A combined B787 and A350 fleet, similar to the A330 and B777 fleets a lot of the majors have at the moment.

Source: www.crikey.com.au
 
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scbriml
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 4:43 pm

The A350 is a 400 seater now?  Wow!
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FCKC
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 4:48 pm

QF will take their decision next year.If Boeing doesn't go 787-10 , chance are high for the A350XWB to enter the QF fleet.

Would be a very credible boost for the A350XWB.

After SQ , QR , SU and perhaps QF , will the combo 787/A350XWB become the winner of the future ?
 
boeing767-300
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 4:53 pm

Dixon is fast catching Tim Clark for always wanting to hear himself in the Media.

Whats his point, is he trying to get Boeing to launch 787-10, make it bigger or cheaper or what. Dixon had his chance to get 77W and did not get them. Why after ordering 20 odd A380s and 65 787 does he need them now. Qantas must already be near a point where they cannot sustain any more capital expenditure on new aircraft. The A350-1000 will not have the capacity of the 77W due to thrust and MTOW.

The A350 will be near on 20 years newer than 772 and should and will be better but 25% better than 77W I don't think so especially when 787 won't be 25% better than A330.

The brochure looks really good but will the engineering live up to the promises???
 
baroque
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:04 pm

Quoting FCKC (Reply 2):
After SQ , QR , SU and perhaps QF , will the combo 787/A350XWB become the winner of the future ?

There may be a certain logic to that combination that could become irresistible. Airbus put a big wing on this version of the 350. Unless the 787 is rewinged, they may find it hard to compete with the 350 at larger sizes and longer ranges, and more especially a combination of the two.

If the 350 goes well, the problem for Airbus might be finding a real 330/310 replacement. I wonder how dusty the 330E plans are!
 
columba
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:11 pm

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 3):
The brochure looks really good but will the engineering live up to the promises???

Well I guess Airbus knows that after the A380 debacle and the huge success Boeing has with the 787 that they have to deliver a more than perfect aircraft with the A350 and I have no doubt that they will do so.
Airbus has learned from the past and apart from the teething problem of the A346 and the delay of the A380 they came out with a great line of aircraft. Especially the A320 and A330 have proven to be a huge success.
Nevertheless I find it strange that QF is interested in the A350. They will have a huge 787 and A380 fleet which is so much different from their all 747 fleet they had a few years ago. It makes you wonder how they will fill all these 787s and A380s as well as their 737NGs and Jetstar A320s.
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moo
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:11 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 1):
The A350 is a 400 seater now?

Airbus has the -1000 as a 350 seat in typical 3 class, so its not much of a leap to 400 in a 2 class.
 
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EK413
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:29 pm

With Mr Dixon heading out on the QF001 yesterday (1st August) I believe he will be paying the Airbus Factory a visit...

EK413
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Rheinbote
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 6:41 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 5):
Well I guess Airbus knows that after the A380 debacle and the huge success Boeing has with the 787 that they have to deliver a more than perfect aircraft with the A350 and I have no doubt that they will do so.
Airbus has learned from the past and apart from the teething problem of the A346 and the delay of the A380 they came out with a great line of aircraft. Especially the A320 and A330 have proven to be a huge success.

Sounds like a contradiction to me. If they have learned from the past (i.e. 320 and 330), how come that they ran into so much trouble with the 3456 and the 380 and seemingly also now with the 400M? What makes you so confident that Airbus will re-attain a 320/330 level of excellence with a finger snap, turning the 350 into a 'more than perfect aircraft'?  scratchchin 
 
WINGS
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 6:54 pm

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 8):
Sounds like a contradiction to me. If they have learned from the past (i.e. 320 and 330), how come that they ran into so much trouble with the 3456

Well maybe you can inform us all to which troubles Airbus ran with the A340-500/600 program? If you are referring to the heavier frames, well Boeing is also facing that issue with the first 8 or so 787's, or maybe you you are referring to the Trent500 fan rubbing? which really isn't an Airbus fault?

You also do realise that the A330 program suffered a hull loss accident during certification, and the A320 also suffered several early accidents/incidents, but ultimately were sorted out. Despite these hick ups both programs turned out to be very successful.

Regards,
Wings
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columba
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 7:39 pm

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 8):
Sounds like a contradiction to me. If they have learned from the past (i.e. 320 and 330), how come that they ran into so much trouble with the 3456 and the 380 and seemingly also now with the 400M? What makes you so confident that Airbus will re-attain a 320/330 level of excellence with a finger snap, turning the 350 into a 'more than perfect aircraft'? scratchchin

There were not really that great problems with the A345/A346 except for the weight problems in the beginning. The A345/A346 in service perform well and do an excellent job to the airlines that use them.
The A380 issue on the other hand is not a problem with the airrcaft but with the production of the aircraft. So far the airlines that have ordered it are very pleased with the test results.
The A400M delay is caused by seveal factors like politics, engine etc and is not necessarily Airbus fault.
I am not saying that Airbus will turn the A350 into a more than perefct aircraft by a fingersnap but I believe that they know that in order to gain confidence again that they have to deliver a great aircraft that can compete with the 787 and takes away customers from the 777 and will work hard on achieving that goal.
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baroque
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:08 pm

Quoting EK413 (Reply 7):
With Mr Dixon heading out on the QF001 yesterday (1st August) I believe he will be paying the Airbus Factory a visit...

I trust that you went going along as his shadow or had him suitably bugged (all the rage in this day and age) so we can follow the latest adventures of young Geoff!  Smile
 
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autothrust
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:44 pm

Well after BA expressed interest in the A350-900R for LHR-SYD its obvious QF will have to look at it very carefully. It will be very interesting what Dixon has to say about the A350.  Smile

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 8):
What makes you so confident that Airbus will re-attain a 320/330 level of excellence with a finger snap, turning the 350 into a 'more than perfect aircraft'? scratchchin

What makes you doubt they won't try to make the best plane possible to regain some credibility, even its not perfect?
I believe that Airbus perfectly knows this is their last chance. After all they did match the performance goals on the A380.
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Stitch
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:18 pm

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 12):
Well after BA expressed interest in the A350-900R for LHR-SYD its obvious QF will have to look at it very carefully.

Of course, we don't know if the A350-900R will even match the range of the 77L at this point. With the A350-900 now hovering around 8100nm, how much more fuel will the A350-900R need to carry to match the 9450nm of the 77L, much less the ~10,000nm needed for year-round LHR-SYD operations and how will that fuel load impact payload when the A350-900R has less floorspace for seats and less LD3 positions for revenue cargo?
 
Danny
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:25 pm

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 3):
is he trying to get Boeing to launch 787-10

 checkmark 

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 3):

, make it bigger

 checkmark 

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 3):

or cheaper

 checkmark 

And if he can't get it from Boeing, he will go to Airbus.
 
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jetfuel
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:48 pm

Plan

1. Pressure Boeing into further 787 development - if that fails then
2. Secure a deal with Airbus
3. Wait and see hoe the A380 performs against paper specs
4. Commit to the A350, subject to performance
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:52 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 9):
Well maybe you can inform us all to which troubles Airbus ran with the A340-500/600 program?

Sales come to mind.

Through the end of June '07:

A345: 33
772LR: 48
A346: 108 (99 without Air Canada and Aerolineas Argentinas)
773ER: 270

When you've been out sold by your competition 318 to 141 even though your airplanes were available two years earlier, it indicates your design has an issue in the market. While the A350XWB is aimed at the 777, the initial airplanes it is replacing in the Airbus lineup are the A333/340.
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sparklehorse12
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:57 pm

QF need to do something, the fleet is growing old disgracefully. The new 787's and the A380 will freshen it up, I could never understand why QF never bought the 777's, perfect aircraft for QF!
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moo
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:13 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 16):
When you've been out sold by your competition 318 to 141 even though your airplanes were available two years earlier, it indicates your design has an issue in the market. While the A350XWB is aimed at the 777, the initial airplanes it is replacing in the Airbus lineup are the A333/340.

Take into mind that you are comparing a variant to an existing family against a completely new family of aircraft, and thus you also have to take into account costs involved in both.
 
Curmudgeon
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:18 pm

Because they wanted the A380 for traffic growth, and the 330 came as an attractive add-on (a volume discount kind of thing). Back when the ground work was laid for all of that, they were a less sophisticated purchaser than they are now. The A330 has been a valuable addition to the QF fleet, and I believe that it is an aircraft they would order again if they had to do it all over again.

The 777 is not apparently dead in the halls of QF. Its probably a lame duck now, but recently it was seeming to be gaining some traction in the rumour mill. (Never say "never"). Anyway...there's no need immediately to buy an aircraft soon to be outmoded. 2015 is just around the corner, after all. Also, don't forget that JQ has an appetite for a steady stream of narrow bodies, and there may be group strategic benefits to hitching up to an A350 commitment now in order to realise volume discounts now. I believe that the net price of Airbus purchases may have spoiled the boys a little bit over the past few years-they might be thinking that there's one more trip to the well to be had  Wink
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WINGS
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:24 pm

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 16):

Sales come to mind.

Through the end of June '07:

A345: 33
772LR: 48
A346: 108 (99 without Air Canada and Aerolineas Argentinas)
773ER: 270

When you've been out sold by your competition 318 to 141 even though your airplanes were available two years earlier, it indicates your design has an issue in the market. While the A350XWB is aimed at the 777, the initial airplanes it is replacing in the Airbus lineup are the A333/340.

While sales for the A340-500/600 are disappointing, Airbus delivered what was promised. The largest impact on the competitiveness of the A340 vs 777 was mainly due to the steep rise of fuel price, and weak US Dollar, which made the more efficient, but yet more expensive option more competitive.

We can also go on to talk about the recent sales figures of the A343 vs 772ER.  Wink or how the A333 has become a preferred choice vs the 772ER in recent years.

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
beechnut
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:31 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 1):
The A350 is a 400 seater now?  

It will be if Air Transat every purchases it. Their website shows 363 seats in an A330-200...
 
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scbriml
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:36 pm

Quoting Sparklehorse12 (Reply 17):
I could never understand why QF never bought the 777's, perfect aircraft for QF!

QF respectfully seem to disagree with you!  smile 
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QantasHeavy
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:51 pm

I can just imagine the shareholders' reaction to Geoff wanting to buy another Airbus project off the drawing board. With the A380 fiasco, is he going to be able to credibly suggest they buy off the plan again? If they do secure some slots it will certainly be with the option to decline and delivery slots will be in the mature product phase... not first ones off the line.

They got cheap A330s for being 380 launch customers and are getting more cheap ones due to Airbus trying to keep the company happy. I'm sure the 350 is being offered cheap too as more restitution for A380 problems. And of course he is trying to get Boeing to blink and give in on the 787-10.

I think QF shold have ordered the 77W and 77L years ago but for whatever reasons passed it by. QF management knows how to make money in the airline business so I won't armchair quarterback too much, but the widebody fleet is getting very tired and capacity is an issue. I cannot imagine another fleet of 767s with more cycles on them than QF. The Trent-powered models leased-in from BA had plenty of short-haul miles on them and have run SYD-MEL 1 hour shuttles all day long for years.

I wonder if they wish they had gotten 777-300ERs and why they never did.
 
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zeke
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 11:05 pm

Quoting MEA (Thread starter):
Possible Qantas A350 Order

One must remember that when we see Qantas buying aircraft, it is buying aircraft for the Qantas group, I think it is too early to assume which brand (QF JQ etc) they are look at these aircraft for.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 16):
Sales come to mind.

Is that really the problem you make it out to be ? It seems Airbus has recovered the cost of the 340NG program with that many airframes (reported to be at 4 billion)...

Boeing NEEDS to sell a lot more airframes to make a profit, and some people still doubt if GE will EVER get a profit out of the program with so few engines sold, as they not only had to find the engine cost, but also as a strategic partner for the airframe.
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OldAeroGuy
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 11:07 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 20):
While sales for the A340-500/600 are disappointing, Airbus delivered what was promised. The largest impact on the competitiveness of the A340 vs 777 was mainly due to the steep rise of fuel price, and weak US Dollar, which made the more efficient, but yet more expensive option more competitive.

And one needs to add that A345/6 has an MTOW that is 33t/29t higher than the 772LR/3ER for similar or worse payload range.

It's interesting that the margin of advantage the A350XWB has over competing models of the 777 are mirrored in the advantages the 772LR/3ER have over the A345/6. The A350XWB will make the 777 obsolescent, in the same way that the 772LR/3ER have made the A345/6 obsolescent. The major difference is one of market timing, with the 773ER lagging the A346 by two years while the A3510 will be 10 years behind the 773ER.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 20):
We can also go on to talk about the recent sales figures of the A343 vs 772ER. or how the A333 has become a preferred choice vs the 772ER in recent years.

The 772A/ER spans the A333/A342/3 markets in terms of payload and capability. Neither model mix has established a commanding position in this corner of the market.

Total Sales:

A333/A342/3: 306/252 = 558

772A/ER: 88/430 = 518

In any case, the glory days of these airplanes in the market place are past as they are being significantly outsold by the 787/A350XWB. This disparity will only increase in the coming years.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
TKV
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 11:37 pm

A)
Considering the arguments made in the topic "BA Looking To Fly Nonstop From London To Sydney", which would apply in all similar cases as here at QF, it is doubtful that extra-long distance non-stop flights are really attractive for passengers whose main concern is the cost; and therefore such flights would be widely restricted to premium class paxs. In such case the A3510 is too large and future derivatives as a B788LR or B789LR seem much more adequate, aside of the availability of the B777-200LR

B)

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 8):
Sounds like a contradiction to me. If they have learned from the past (i.e. 320 and 330), how come that they ran into so much trouble with the 3456 and the 380 and seemingly also now with the 400M? What makes you so confident that Airbus will re-attain a 320/330 level of excellence with a finger snap, turning the 350 into a 'more than perfect aircraft'?

The future of the A350XWB is further handicapped by the union related and funding problems of EADS and Airbus, which seem to influence decisions as not to go to barrels

A further possibly important factor, especially in the case of QF, is the fact that there are no GE engines available for the A3510

C)

Quoting WINGS (Reply 20):
We can also go on to talk about the recent sales figures of the A343 vs 772ER. or how the A333 has become a preferred choice vs the 772ER in recent years.

From today's perspective, the A330 is really the only success of Airbus at the wide body sector and as long the B787 does not become deliverable, the A332 the only choice at this size. But the A333 is strongly outsold by the B777, its competition being the B772ER and the B773ER, not the B772ER alone !
Further, a good number were bought at favorable conditions as compensation for A380 delays and gap fillers for the future A350XWB

But again: it's a good aircraft !

TKV
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 11:40 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 24):
Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 16):
Sales come to mind.

Is that really the problem you make it out to be ? It seems Airbus has recovered the cost of the 340NG program with that many airframes (reported to be at 4 billion)...

With only 141 examples sold, Airbus would have needed to recover 28M USD on each one to recover the development costs. Given the pricing pressure from the 772LR/3ER in terms of both better performance and your assertion that Boeing was undercutting the A346 price at CX, I doubt they had that luxury.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 24):
Boeing NEEDS to sell a lot more airframes to make a profit, and some people still doubt if GE will EVER get a profit out of the program with so few engines sold, as they not only had to find the engine cost, but also as a strategic partner for the airframe.

I don't understand why you think this is true. My understanding of the 772LR/3ER Program was that they had a combined development cost of 2B USD. With 318 airplanes sold, development cost recovery would only have needed to be about 6M USD per airplane.

I suspect the 772LR/3ER has been much more profitable than the A345/6.

In terms of engines sold, the GE90-110/115B have outsold the Trent500.

Without considering spares:

Trent500: 141 * 4 = 564

GE90-110/115B: 318 * 2 = 636

If you add the 777F sales, the GE90-110/115B sales increase by another 154 to 790. Since both the Trent500 and the GE90-110/115B are derivative engines with cores based on earlier designs, GE's 40% sales advantage with more orders to come would seem to have put them in a much better position than RR.

Quoting Moo (Reply 18):
Take into mind that you are comparing a variant to an existing family against a completely new family of aircraft, and thus you also have to take into account costs involved in both.

Not sure which airplanes you are referring to here.

The 772LR/3ER were much cheaper to develop than the A345/6 which needed extensive wing modifications and a mid-program improvement in the form of the IGW models.

Conversely, the 772LR/3ER were also cheaper than the A350XWB.

Can you clarify?
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EA772LR
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Thu Aug 02, 2007 11:45 pm

Tho I have no doubt the 350XWB will be a badass aircraft, a 25% increase in efficiency over the 77L/W to me is total hogwash. I could be wrong, i just can't imagine a leap in efficiency over an aircraft (77L/W) that is incredibly efficient now. We're only talking 8 years at the most. The 787 isn't even 25% more efficient than the 330 which is essentially close to a 20 year old design.

On a side note, QF could pull a fast one and order a handful of 77W's, and wait for Boeing to launch the 787-10/ER and take those in a decade or more, which won't be that long after the proposed EIS of the 350-1000. They already operate and extensive fleet of Boeings (similar flight deck on their 738's with 777's) and GE engines, even on their incoming 787's. What do y'all think??
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:24 am

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 28):
On a side note, QF could pull a fast one and order a handful of 77W's, and wait for Boeing to launch the 787-10/ER and take those in a decade or more, which won't be that long after the proposed EIS of the 350-1000. They already operate and extensive fleet of Boeings (similar flight deck on their 738's with 777's) and GE engines, even on their incoming 787's. What do y'all think??

I don't ever expect to see a 777 fly in QF Group colors. QF will soldier on with their 30 747s until they can replace them with their 20 A388s. This is why I don't understand why QF is talking about the A350-1000 as they would not just be a new type, but also a new mission/role...

Unless they were going to buy four to replace the 743s, which sounds unlikely...
 
EA772LR
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:41 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
I don't ever expect to see a 777 fly in QF Group colors.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
Unless they were going to buy four to replace the 743s, which sounds unlikely...

Damn Stitch.  wink  I was hoping someone would respond back with, "speaking of, QF just announced an order for 10 77W"  Big grin Oh well. Wishful thinking I suppose
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
TKV
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:49 am

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 28):
On a side note, QF could pull a fast one and order a handful of 77W's, and wait for Boeing to launch the 787-10/ER and take those in a decade or more, which won't be that long after the proposed EIS of the 350-1000. They already operate and extensive fleet of Boeings (similar flight deck on their 738's with 777's) and GE engines, even on their incoming 787's. What do y'all think??



Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
I don't ever expect to see a 777 fly in QF Group colors

I could agree as for purchasing, but they could lease them!
But as EA772LR says, they could want a handful of B772LR as gap-filler until an adequate "composite" extra-long range "composite" model becomes available i.e. A3510, B787-11, or B789LR, (see also my Reply 25). If a B788LR would suffice, than the B772LR as gap filler appears to large (?).

TKV
 
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Stitch
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:52 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 31):
I could agree as for purchasing, but they could lease them!

I suppose so, but I am not sure QF wants the hassle of four of them to replace the 743s, assuming the 743s are being retired anytime soon...
 
WINGS
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:59 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 25):

And one needs to add that A345/6 has an MTOW that is 33t/29t higher than the 772LR/3ER for similar or worse payload range.

Correct, with this figure representing its higher fuel burn.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 25):

The 772A/ER spans the A333/A342/3 markets in terms of payload and capability. Neither model mix has established a commanding position in this corner of the market.

Total Sales:

A333/A342/3: 306/252 = 558

772A/ER: 88/430 = 518

Yet in recent times the A333/A343 has been outselling the 772A/ER by a big margin.

Quoting TKV (Reply 26):
But the A333 is strongly outsold by the B777, its competition being the B772ER and the B773ER, not the B772ER alone !

WRONG The A333 does not in any way compete directly with either the 77L or 77W. Since when does the A333 have the range of the 77L or the capacity of the 77W?

Quoting TKV (Reply 26):
Further, a good number were bought at favorable conditions as compensation for A380 delays and gap fillers for the future A350XWB

Tell that to AirAsia X, Hong Kong Air and Aer Lingus.  Wink

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
EA772LR
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:12 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 33):
WRONG The A333 does not in any way compete directly with either the 77L or 77W. Since when does the A333 have the range of the 77L or the capacity of the 77W?

Hello Wings,
TKV said the 772ER not the 772LR. But the 333 doesn't really compete with the 772ER either and certainly not the 77W. The 333 competes more with the 772A, which the 333 kills the 772A on efficiency. The 772ER is much heavier and has much greater range than the 333.
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
dl767captain
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:16 am

I assume they would be looking at the A350R, but is that even a firm model yet? The whole program is still on paper and if EIS is something like 2013-2014 it would be a while before qantas got the plane after the -800,-900,-1000 were in production, wouldn't a long range version require modifications like the 77L pushing its EIS further back justlike the 77L? This seems to me like he wants twothings, a larger 787 with range, Or an updated 777. By the 2015 timeline Boeing could be working on an updated 777 or even the Y3 not to mention the new 737/A320 replacement. Personally I think it is time to update the 777, turn it intoa scaled up 787, sure it will cost money but Boeing will have to do something to compete with the A350 when airlines need to replace their 777, and if Boeing doesn't act the only options will be the smaller 787 or the A350
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:22 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 33):
Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 25):

And one needs to add that A345/6 has an MTOW that is 33t/29t higher than the 772LR/3ER for similar or worse payload range.

Correct, with this figure representing its higher fuel burn.

The fuel burn difference is more than just the weight difference. The 772LR/3ER also has better engine TSFC and is more aerodynamically efficient.

In addition, the higher weight of the A345/6 also increases operating costs through additional maintenance requirements and airport usage charges.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 33):
Yet in recent times the A333/A343 has been outselling the 772A/ER by a big margin.

Have any data to illustrate this?

In any case, both families are now becoming obsolescent due to the development of the 787 and A350XWB.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
kaneporta1
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:25 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
With the A350-900 now hovering around 8100nm, how much more fuel will the A350-900R need to carry to match the 9450nm of the 77L

that would be 30t

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
when the A350-900R has less floorspace for seats and less LD3 positions for revenue cargo?

in a 3-3-3 economy configuration, the A350-900 should take more people than the 777L. Same goes for cargo.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 25):
The A350XWB will make the 777 obsolescent, in the same way that the 772LR/3ER have made the A345/6 obsolescent. The major difference is one of market timing, with the 773ER lagging the A346 by two years while the A3510 will be 10 years behind the 773ER.

I don't see how this statement is any relevant. In that sense, the 787 is 15 years behind the A330.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
This is why I don't understand why QF is talking about the A350-1000 as they would not just be a new type, but also a new mission/role...

Not necessarily. QF have a big fleet of A330s and the A350-900 and even the -1000 would be a good replacement for the Asian routes, along with all the 787s. Whether QF will also consider purchasing the -900R is another story.
I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
 
TKV
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:25 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 33):
Quoting TKV (Reply 26):
But the A333 is strongly outsold by the B777, its competition being the B772ER and the B773ER, not the B772ER alone !

WRONG The A333 does not in any way compete directly with either the 77L or 77W. Since when does the A333 have the range of the 77L or the capacity of the 77W?

Given the postive characteristics of the B773ER, when compared with the specific ones of the A772ER,
there are airlines which normally would have selected the A333, to buy the B773ER with a more comfortable configuration, even if the latter for the moment was to large. So, it indirectly competes at the lower end !
But, as I said before, I am not discussing the merits of the A333.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 33):
Quoting TKV (Reply 26):

Further, a good number were bought at favorable conditions as compensation for A380 delays and gap fillers for the future A350XWB

Tell that to AirAsia X, Hong Kong Air and Aer Lingus.

I said "a good number". not "all' !! And Aer Lingus seems to be an example of what I stated !!  Wink

TKV
 
EA772LR
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:27 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 37):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
With the A350-900 now hovering around 8100nm, how much more fuel will the A350-900R need to carry to match the 9450nm of the 77L

that would be 30t

The 350-900R would need 30 tons more fuel??
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 1:48 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 37):
The A350XWB will make the 777 obsolescent, in the same way that the 772LR/3ER have made the A345/6 obsolescent. The major difference is one of market timing, with the 773ER lagging the A346 by two years while the A3510 will be 10 years behind the 773ER.

I don't see how this statement is any relevant. In that sense, the 787 is 15 years behind the A330.

I agree that the 787 is 15 years behind the A330, but it provides a gain in operating efficiency. You would expect an airplane developed 10 - 15 years after yours to be 15% to 25% more efficient. That's the case of the 787 relative to the A330 and the A3510 relative to the 773ER.

It's a marketing and resource blunder to commit an airplane to the market place that will be 15% to 25% less efficient than the competition in only 2 years. That's the situation the A345/6 is in relative to the 772LR/3ER.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
kaneporta1
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 2:00 am

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 39):
The 350-900R would need 30 tons more fuel??

The -900R will have the MTOW of the -1000, which is 30t more. I guess it was my mistake to say 30, as some of the extra weight will be the strengthened airframe's weight. But my guess is that the A350 could carry 20t-25t of extra fuel. Whether it will need all that to achieve the extra 1400nm of range, I don't know.
I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
 
pmurr
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 2:14 am

It really is early days yet. The QF board wouldnt make sucha decision without first reviewing Boeing's offering with the 787-10.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 2:17 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 33):
Yet in recent times the A333/A343 has been outselling the 772A/ER by a big margin.

But Boeing is seeing a shift from 772ER sales to 772LR sales because, for about the same price, you just get more with the 77L. And as you noted, an A333 and A343 can't touch a 77L in terms of payload, range, and payload over range.

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 37):
in a 3-3-3 economy configuration, the A350-900 should take more people than the 777L. Same goes for cargo.

Yeah, you're probably right, depending on how many of the 36 LD3 positions the A350-900R needs to sacrifice for tanks (not sure how many of the 32 the 77L needs to give up for her optional extra tanks).

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 37):
Not necessarily. QF have a big fleet of A330s and the A350-900 and even the -1000 would be a good replacement for the Asian routes, along with all the 787s. Whether QF will also consider purchasing the -900R is another story.

But the 787-8 covers the A330-200 mission profile and the 787-9 the A330-300 in terms of capacity, while offering more range. The 787-10 would be gravy compared to the A330-300 in both capacity and range,

The only current plane that QF operates that could be replaced by the A350-1000 or 777-300ER is the 747-300, and QF only has four of them. They seem to be moving towards consolidating the loads of 30 744s onto 20 A388s, but even if they just went 1:1 744 to A388, then that means at most they'd need 10 A350-1000s and this assumes the A350-1000 could perform the same mission as QF's six 744ERs (which I don't know and I am not sure Airbus does, either).

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 41):
The -900R will have the MTOW of the -1000, which is 30t more.

Do we know that for sure? I know it will have the same engines, but...
 
lesismore
Posts: 123
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 2:27 am

Quoting Moo (Reply 6):
Airbus has the -1000 as a 350 seat in typical 3 class, so its not much of a leap to 400 in a 2 class.

If Airbus basing this seating capacity on a 9-abreast economy layout, with only ~ 12in increase in interior width over the current A330/A340, how comfortable will this be? What will will the seat and aisle widths be? I know the same argument applies to the B787.
Airbus seems to use a higher ratio of economy to biz/first class seats in its advertisements, I think the real-world seating capacities will be a bit less.
I'm a success today because I had a friend who believed in me and I didn't have the heart to let him down. - Abe Lincoln
 
WINGS
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 3:23 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 36):

Quoting WINGS (Reply 33):
Yet in recent times the A333/A343 has been outselling the 772A/ER by a big margin.

Have any data to illustrate this?

In any case, both families are now becoming obsolescent due to the development of the 787 and A350XWB.

Yes I do have some data.  Wink

2006:

Airbus A333/A343 = 29
Boeing 777-200/ER = 1

2007:

Airbus A333/A343 = 32
Boeing 777-200/ER = 9

As you can see I'm not making this up, and do note that Airbus has several A333 MOU/LOI pending.

Quoting TKV (Reply 38):
Given the positive characteristics of the B773ER, when compared with the specific ones of the A772ER,
there are airlines which normally would have selected the A333, to buy the B773ER with a more comfortable configuration, even if the latter for the moment was to large. So, it indirectly competes at the lower end !
But, as I said before, I am not discussing the merits of the A333.

I'm sorry TKV, but the A333 and the 777-300ER do not compete. The closet would be the 777-300 (non ER), but still a huge increase in capacity.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 43):

But Boeing is seeing a shift from 772ER sales to 772LR sales because, for about the same price, you just get more with the 77L

I'm sorry Stitch, but this is just not very correct. From what OldAeroGuy stated Boeing has booked a total of 48 orders for the 77L. Not a very big shift if you ask me, especially considering that the A345 has managed to capture 33 firm orders + 5 pending orders (Kingfisher).

What I conclude is that the 787 is rapidly eating into 777 sales and will continue to do so. This is one of the primary reasons that Boeing is so reluctant to launch the 787-10 at this present time.

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 3:24 am

Anyone know what availability is for the 777-200 series? With a large 77W backlog, it might just be raw availability that is helping to drive A333/A343 sales at the moment...
 
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scbriml
Posts: 18309
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 3:50 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):
With a large 77W backlog, it might just be raw availability that is helping to drive A333/A343 sales at the moment...

Boeing lists the 777 backlog as at end June as 331, while the Airbus A330/340 backlog at end June was 352.

In the same time, Boeing delivered 38 777s, while Airbus delivered 43 A330/340s.

All in all, with backlogs and delivery rates so close, availability would look to be fairly even.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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Stitch
Posts: 26729
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 4:40 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 47):
All in all, with backlogs and delivery rates so close, availability would look to be fairly even.

However, Airbus continues to ramp A330/A340 production rates. I believe the 777 is at seven per month while the A330/A340 is moving towards nine, and possibly ten.
 
TKV
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:59 pm

RE: Possible Qantas A350 Order

Fri Aug 03, 2007 5:20 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 48):
I ....while the A330/A340 is moving towards nine, and possibly ten.

If they really do that, and assuming that they could reach 10/month by 2010, and assuming further they
can maintain the production until 2012, which is optimistic:
(*) (obviously, the will be a disminution in 2012, but some compensating in 2013-14}

Total production with 7/mth
2007: 42 (2nd half)
2008: 84
2009-2012: 4 x 84 = 343
Total: 469
Total production increasing to 10:
2007: 42 (2nd half)
2008: 84
2009 102 (8.5/mth)
2010 120 (10 /mth)
2011 132
2012 144 see (*)
------------
total: 624 (+ 155 more potential. not assured sale) )

Assuming, again being optimistic, a net profit after taxes of $ 8 M and expansion Investment interests per additional aircraft sold
Additional profit: 155 x 8 = $ 1,240 M

As the A330 is an aircraft very little outsourced, nearly all the expansion costs would be charged to Airbus itself and subcontractors will not accept to pay an expnsion for a few years of production), iI fear that the net reult will be certainly not impressing !!

TKV

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