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Tugger
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Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Sat Aug 04, 2007 11:40 am

I was wondering what the expected capacity breaks are for the Y1, Y2, and Y3 concepts developed by Boeing. And whether they have changed now that the 787 has entered the market (though not service yet obviously) and accepted. In addition, how has this changed or influenced Airbus' market space? With the success of the 787, Airbus has chosen to define a different space with its A350 (and I thinkly wisely so), with the 787 occupying (currently) 210-330 capacity space and the A350 looking to the 270 to 410 space (all figures from Wiki).

To me out of this, what is interesting is how each manufacturer is defining "their" market space. Some here lambaste one manufacturer or the other for being "too small" or "straddling two markets" but I for one don’t think either manufacturer really wants direct competition with the other. Each wants a different product from the other so that they are not stuck in a direct price competition with each other. The airlines of course want them to each offer nearly identical products so that they can have bidding wars and drive each manufacturer to the lowest price.

So what passenger capacity range will the Y1 concept cover, what will the 787 cover, and what will theY3 someday cover? What will Airbus offer?

To start things I think that Y1 will have a capacity of 120 to 230 with a good range for all types to allow airlines to use them in “long thin routes”. As to the Y3 I think a lot has to do with where the 787 goes, (which I do think has changed to a slightly higher cap with the intro of the A350, I will say it will go up to about 350) but I will throw out for the Y3 to range from 340 to say 550.

OK so I am hoping for some answers and discussion, not flames and fights but hey this IS A.net.

So what say the more learned ones here?

Thanks,

Tug
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
PladPanther
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Sat Aug 04, 2007 11:53 am

what does Y1, Y2, Y3 mean?  Confused
 
dalb777
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Sat Aug 04, 2007 12:04 pm

Quoting PladPanther (Reply 1):
what does Y1, Y2, Y3 mean?

Y1= 737/757 replacement
Y2= 787
Y3= 747/777 replacement
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futurecaptain
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Sat Aug 04, 2007 12:22 pm

Quoting Tugger (Thread starter):
with the 787 occupying (currently) 210-330 capacity space

The 787-8/9 cover 210-290 seats.

I predict Y1 to cover 149-200 seats.
Y1-1. 149 seats. WN replacement. Intercontenental range.
Y1-2. 179 seats. Intercontenental range.
Y1-3. 200 seats. Transatlantic range.

Y2(787) covers 210-290 seats in long range models. and 290-330 seats with the 787-3.

Y3 I predict to cover the 370-450 seat range.
Y3-1. 370 seats.
Y3-2. 410 seats.
Y3-3. 450 seats.
All with transpacific range, probably better.

Anyway, just my predictions. We'll see.
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dl767captain
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Sat Aug 04, 2007 12:27 pm

Well the Y2 is the 787 so we know the seat range that will cover, the larger -10 version could extend that or it could be considered the lower end of the Y3, im not sure how that works.

The Y1 will cover the current 737-700 up to probably the 757-200 or to the 757-300.

The Y3 is where it gets complicated, right now we have the 777 and 747-8, so now boeing will have to decide if they want to merge those two seat capacities into one plane or leave it in two planes, i could see advantages for both. They could make one model that is stretched and shortened to serve different seat capacities, or they could make the 777NG (basically a larger 787) and a 747NG (they have the -8 but i am talking about making a new one out of composites or something the size of the 747). I believe they will go with one plane type that will be stretched, it seems like that is what they did with the 787.
 
pygmalion
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Sat Aug 04, 2007 12:49 pm

Or by fuselage widths.

Y1 nominal comfy 6 abreast with possible 7 in minimal twin aisle 2 - 3 - 2

Y2 (787) nominal 8 abreast with 9 capabilty

Y3 nominal 10 abreast with 11 across capabilty with the fuselage double bubble laid on its side and 3 - 5 - 3 cattle class. i.e super low CSM
 
United Airline
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Sat Aug 04, 2007 1:20 pm

From what I heard Y3 is a double deckor. Can anyone confirm that?
 
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Tugger
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Sat Aug 04, 2007 1:25 pm

Quoting PladPanther (Reply 1):
what does Y1, Y2, Y3 mean? Confused

I don't know all the particulars but the "Y" is for a research study Boeing did years ago called Yellowstone to determine the best/next types of commercial aircraft they should produce. I don't believe it exactly defined each design as the Sonic Cruiser was within its parameters but did so within a broad sweep for each class of aircraft. Basically the end result was it just wrapped up the entire potential market into three classes of of aircraft: Y1-shorter hop, narrow body, lower end of the seating capacity scale; Y2-look at the 787; Y3-widebody, long range, high passenger capacity. What I am saying here is not exact or complete just a rough shot of the Yellowstone study.

Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 3):
The 787-8/9 cover 210-290 seats.

The 787-3 will be 290–330 seats. (according to the numbers on Wiki, long know to be a bastion of unfailingly trustworthy information  cheeky  But in this instance I trust them.)

Tug
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Sat Aug 04, 2007 6:00 pm

Quoting Tugger (Thread starter):
I was wondering what the expected capacity breaks are for the Y1, Y2, and Y3 concepts developed by Boeing.

Boeing tries to have a 20% capacity gap between families. Since we know that Y2 (787) spans 210-290, Y1 should max out at about 160 and Y3 should start about 355. With reasonable stretches, that means Y1 should work out to about 120-160 and Y3 should be about 355-440.

Quoting Tugger (Thread starter):
And whether they have changed now that the 787 has entered the market (though not service yet obviously) and accepted.

The market is pushing hard for a bigger Y2, so that would bump up the lower end for Y3. However, it's not clear how they'll implement that, since they don't want the upper end of Y3 to run over the 747.

Quoting Tugger (Thread starter):
In addition, how has this changed or influenced Airbus' market space?

It hasn't, really. Airbus went off on a side trip with the A380, so their product strategy for the next two decades is going to be to pick off the biggest Boeing threats one by one. A350 takes out the 777, then they'll go after the 737, then the 787.

Quoting Tugger (Thread starter):
With the success of the 787, Airbus has chosen to define a different space with its A350 (and I thinkly wisely so),

A350 is just Airbus's 777. It's not a different space.

Quoting Tugger (Thread starter):
To me out of this, what is interesting is how each manufacturer is defining "their" market space.

I disagree. The A320 and 737 are in the same market space. The A350 and 777 are in the same market space. The A330 and the 767/787 are in the same market space. The A380 and 747-8i, although they don't have the same capacity, are basically in the same market space because they're competing for the same routes.

Quoting Tugger (Thread starter):
Y3 to range from 340 to say 550.

Y3 won't go that high unless they do Y3 last. They won't let Y3 get that big for at least the next 10 years because it would ruin the business case for the 747-8i.

Quoting Pygmalion (Reply 5):
Y3 nominal 10 abreast with 11 across capabilty with the fuselage double bubble laid on its side

The only reason you do double-bubble is to get more width at shoulder level...why would you turn it on its side? A round fuselage with the same cabin width would be lighter, cheaper, and have more cargo space.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 6):
From what I heard Y3 is a double deckor. Can anyone confirm that?

I don't think they ever settled on that for sure. Y1/Y2/Y3 was a what if..."What if we could redesign our whole product family from scratch?" Y2 became the 787 but there are no comparable development projects for Y1 and Y3 at the moment.

Tom.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Sat Aug 04, 2007 8:03 pm

Y2 is the 787.

787-8
187 low density
226 standard three class
240 high density three class

787-9
210 low density
259 standard
280 high density

Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 3):
I predict Y1 to cover 149-200 seats.

Two Class:

90, 108, 128, 150, 180, 220 - Same as the 737 and 757 line with better economics

Quoting Tugger (Reply 7):
The 787-3 will be 290–330 seats

260 tops in US domestic.
 
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Tugger
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Sun Aug 05, 2007 8:32 am

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 8):
Boeing tries to have a 20% capacity gap between families.

Seems strange to not have an over lap. It gives you complete coverage, also the top and bottom end of capacities for any particular frame tend to be used by different airlines (IE the top capacity is used by a high density airline but not say a Cathay, and vice versa the low capacity would not be used by a Ryan but may be for Cathay).

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 8):
Y1 should max out at about 160

There is no way in hell that Y1 will max out at 160 passengers. That would limit its market way to much. If the concept is followed the design would have to scale up to cover what the 757 currently covers.

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 8):
they don't want the upper end of Y3 to run over the 747.

I don't think the 747 will figure into Y3 too much as I personally believe that Y3 will be developed last and it will be at least ten years (as you noted:

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 8):
Y3 won't go that high unless they do Y3 last. They won't let Y3 get that big for at least the next 10 years because it would ruin the business case for the 747-8i.

)

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 8):
The only reason you do double-bubble is to get more width at shoulder level...why would you turn it on its side? A round fuselage with the same cabin width would be lighter, cheaper, and have more cargo space.

The entire reason to do a "double bubble" is to not go double deck and still allow for the seating capacity that may be desired (suggested here) without having extra volume above that you don't need (IE the wasted space at the top of the 747).

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 9):
260 tops in US domestic.

Well, its not used in the USA yet, and what I gave are its capacity specs for the asian market. I think what you are saying is that is the high density, inter-Japan/Asia seating only and will not be used elsewhere.

Tug

[Edited 2007-08-05 01:34:27]

[Edited 2007-08-05 01:34:50]
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Stitch
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Sun Aug 05, 2007 9:17 am

If I was developing them:

Y1-100/Y-100ER - 150 seats in two classes
Y1-200/Y-200ER - 200 seats in two classes

Y3-100/Y3-100ER - 350 seats in three classes
Y3-200/Y3-200ER - 400 seats in three classes
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Mon Aug 06, 2007 2:27 am

Quoting Tugger (Reply 10):
Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 8):
Boeing tries to have a 20% capacity gap between families.

Seems strange to not have an over lap.

There's no business justification for an overlap. Aircraft are way too expensive to develop for one company to have competing models.

Tom.
 
ckfred
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Mon Aug 06, 2007 2:57 pm

Why is it that so many people believe that the Y1 should have a seating capacity of no less than 125 or so? Many routes only need aircraft with capacities of 100 to 115 seats, but they also need a first class cabin to accomodate elite-status passengers.

Boeing built a lot of 737-200s and -500s, which typically seated 108 to 115 passengers.

A friend of mine is a pilot with AA. One of the difficulties for AA has been the lack of aircraft sized between the CRJ, with 70 seats, and the MD-80, which has had configurations ranging from 129 to 142. AA has had to either fly less frequently than is optimal with the MD-80 or fly maybe more frequently than is optimal with ERJs and CRJs, or some combination of RJ and mainline flying.

It seems to me that if Boeing could work a 110-seat aircraft into the Y1 family, airlines looking to replace their narrowbody fleets would seriously consider the smallest version. That is contingent on Boeing designing the plane as a short-to-medium-haul plane, like the 737-200 and -500, and not the long, thin route plane from the NG series, the -600.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:47 pm

Quoting Ckfred (Reply 13):
Why is it that so many people believe that the Y1 should have a seating capacity of no less than 125 or so?

I suspect because there's not justification for Boeing to invest that amount of money into that market space. Bombardier and Embraer are already furiously competing in that space and they'll soon be joined by Sukhoi, Mitsubishi, and AVIC-x. Profit margins there are thin today and they're going to get worse with the other entries.

Tom.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Mon Aug 06, 2007 9:24 pm

Quoting Ckfred (Reply 13):
Why is it that so many people believe that the Y1 should have a seating capacity of no less than 125 or so?

Because Embraer does it better with the E-17x and E-19x series.

Quoting Ckfred (Reply 13):
It seems to me that if Boeing could work a 110-seat aircraft into the Y1 family, airlines looking to replace their narrowbody fleets would seriously consider the smallest version.

The 717-100, 717-200 and 737-600 all covered that range and sold very poorly.

I really think just two sizes - 150 seats and 200 seats - will be sufficient. Work on making the trip costs for both as low as possible and by default you invalidate any other size because when you have two sizes with very similar trip costs, airlines will chose the larger model because of the better revenue potential. And only having two models means it's cheaper to develop, build, and certify which means it's cheaper for airlines to buy and operate.
 
JayinKitsap
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:10 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
The 717-100, 717-200 and 737-600 all covered that range and sold very poorly.

But didn't all of these as shrinks end up with not great performance: ie relatively heavy and costly compared to the RJ's.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:07 pm

Quoting Ckfred (Reply 13):
Why is it that so many people believe that the Y1 should have a seating capacity of no less than 125 or so?

Because Boeing themselves have indicated such potential. Doesn't mean it will be built, just that they are considering it.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:47 pm

Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 16):
But didn't all of these as shrinks end up with not great performance: ie relatively heavy and costly compared to the RJ's.

The 717-200 was the baseline and Boeing considered a stretch 717-300, but airline interest had waned by that time.
 
grantcv
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:08 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
The 717-200 was the baseline and Boeing considered a stretch 717-300, but airline interest had waned by that time.

Well, the 717-200 (aka MD-95) is very much a shrunken MD-90 and airline interest didn't really wane as it never was all that enthusiastic to begin with.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:19 am

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 19):
Well, the 717-200 (aka MD-95) is very much a shrunken MD-90 and airline interest didn't really wane as it never was all that enthusiastic to begin with.

And I think airline enthusiasm in a 737RS model that seated less then 150 in one class would also be pretty low.

Fleet simplification I think is they key, especially if you can make larger planes more efficient. If the 797-100/797-200 can be the 787-3* to the 797-100ERs/797-200ERs 787-8, I think that's enough. Same fuselage just lighter in structure with less powerful engines and wingtips optimized for short-haul instead of long-haul missions.


* - Boeing will need to do more development work on the 797-100/797-200 then they did on the 787-3, since the market will be much larger, but I think the basic idea would be sound.
 
ckfred
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:39 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
The 717-100, 717-200 and 737-600 all covered that range and sold very poorly.

But the 737-600's problem was that it was overweight for flights of 200 to 1500 miles, which is what the 737-200 and -500 fly. Remember that AA had pegged the -600 as the F100 replacement, when it signed its 20-year agreement with Boeing in the late 90s. It was only afterwards that AA decided that the -600 couldn't handle the F100's routes profitably.

As for the 717, a friend of mine at AA has said that if AA knew in 2001 what it learned by early 2003 about the maintenance troubles of the F100, it would have dumped the F100s and kept the 717s, probably adding some under the TW contract.

That said, AA has been pushing to keep the number of fleet types at a minimum. If Boeing could build a 110-seat plane that had maintenance and crew commonality with larger series, I would suspect that AA and others would buy it. The Embrear 170s and 190s have very little in common with the Embrear 135, 140, and 145, so AA would be adding 2 fleet types by buying an Embrear 100 seater and the Y1 to replace the MD-80, and eventually the 737 and 757.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:44 am

Quoting Ckfred (Reply 21):
That said, AA has been pushing to keep the number of fleet types at a minimum. If Boeing could build a 110-seat plane that had maintenance and crew commonality with larger series, I would suspect that AA and others would buy it.

I think it might behoove Boeing and Embraer to work together to offer as much cockpit and systems commonality as possible between a new 100-125-seat EMB-2xx and a 150-200 seat 737RS.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Tue Aug 07, 2007 10:01 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
I think it might behoove Boeing and Embraer to work together to offer as much cockpit and systems commonality as possible between a new 100-125-seat EMB-2xx and a 150-200 seat 737RS.

Canada is closer.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Y1, Y2, Y3 Passenger Capacity Breaks

Tue Aug 07, 2007 10:17 pm

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 23):
Canada is closer.

Yes, and Boeing used to own part of them (when they were DeHavilland), But the ERJs are much better then the CRJs, IMO, so I think the future is "JungleJets" instead of "TundraJets".  Smile

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