kaitak
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CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:37 pm

According to a story on the FI website, CX is holding off on a 747-8 and A380 decision (which I believe we discussed recently anyway - a decision is expected next year). The airline is also interested in a larger version of the 787-10, including a not so subtle hint to Boeing to get on with the 787-10; it sees potential in the A350-900/1000.

It still speaks of an entry date of 2011, which at this stage seems wildly optimistic, even for 787s.

With its own A330s, A340s and 772s to replace as well as KA's A330s, the A350/787 order will be pretty sizeable: 50-60 or so?

I guess the one thing against Airbus is that based on previous experience (i.e. with the A340-600), it has expressed a wish not to order early versions of Airbus aircraft; no doubt a card Boeing will play strongly.

On the other hand, of course, the competing Airbuses are considerably wider than the Boeing equivalents; 10 abreast on the 380 will be considerably more comfortable than on the 744/748. The Boeing has a lot going for it, particularly with CX being a big cargo operator, so this will be a very hard fought campaign. Winner takes all; i.e. A350/A380 or 787/747-8I, rather than a split order?

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-back-on-airbus-a380-decision.html
 
cloudyapple
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:43 pm

And the source article on which the report had been based is here: http://www.sendspace.com/file/8ip2h9
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EI321
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:52 pm

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
The airline is also interested in a larger version of the 787-10

As in a 787-11?

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
CX is holding off on a 747-8 and A380 decision (which I believe we discussed recently anyway - a decision is expected next year).

No susprise there, the airline has been saying this for a while.
 
Paddy
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:46 pm

Quote:
As in a 787-11?



I think they are asking for the 787-10 to be larger than is currently envisioned by Boeing, ala EK among others.

Interesting article. Everybody seems to think that the A380 would be such a boon to CX but I'm not 100% sure. While I don't doubt that they could easily fill A380's to a solid few destinations, I think the face of Pacific aviation is changing. With increasing competiton, the spread of new urban agglomerations (especially in China) and a market preference toward increased frequency/more point to point service, VLA growth in the Pacific sector very well may be less than expected. NH wanting to top out their fleet with the 77W may be some interesting evidence in this direction. Don't get me wrong, I personally believe CX will order some VLA soon but I find it interesting that they are holding off on that and showing interest in 787/A350 sized birds at the same time. Could they be rethinking their strategy? Or am I just read way too far into things?
 
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Stitch
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:48 pm

It will be interesting to see if airlines who want a new 777-sized plane will be willing to "wait" on Boeing to come forward with Y3 upwards of five years after the EIS of the A350. I would not be surprised if Boeing doesn't see a smooth EIS for the 787 to be as important for Y3 as it will be for the 787 itself as it should help instill a sense of confidence in choosing Y3 over the A350 since Boeing will already have a foundation/baseline for the technologies and processes they will use to bring her into service.
 
columba
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:56 pm

Quoting Paddy (Reply 3):
I think they are asking for the 787-10 to be larger than is currently envisioned by Boeing, ala EK among others.

I think this is also one reason why LH did not order yet. They say that they are not having enough data on the A350, yet.
But apparently it was enough data available for SQ, US, QR and AY to order the aircraft. The only aircraft we have not heard anything about it and that is under consideration by most of the major airines that are currently evaluating the 787 vs the A350 (BA, CX, EK, LH) is the 787-10 so I guess they all are waiting what this aircraft will look like before they make a decision.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
dl767captain
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 12:43 am

with their large cargo company i can definately see a 748f, that could give the 748i a better chance, it all depends on where CX wants to go with their airline. I could definately see the 748 to replace the A340-600 and 747-400, the A350 could be used to replace the 777, and the 787 could be used to replace the A330, it makes sense. Now the A380, it depends on whether CX needs a plane that large, if so i could see them going like LH, ordering a small number of A380 to compliment a slightly larger fleet of 748's.
 
boeing767-300
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 2:44 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 5):
But apparently it was enough data available for SQ, US, QR and AY to order the aircraft

Maybe the A350 was offered at a low price with the knowledge that A350 will be a good aircraft but at this price there won't be any technical guarantees on performance etc.  wink 

SQ ordered to keep Boeings pencil sharp. US were linked to Airbus through loans (since repaid) but through the media talked 787 to sharpen Airbus. QR ordered A350 but also ordered at least 30 787 so far as well.

I don't believe the data would have been complete at that early stage but then if you want early slots and the launch discounts you can't argue too much about performance guarantees.....
 
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par13del
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 3:03 am

Boeing767-300, based on your comments, when exactly during the ordering process does a customer require / demand performance guarantes from the OEM?
 
kaitak
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 3:42 am

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 7):
I don't believe the data would have been complete at that early stage but then if you want early slots and the launch discounts you can't argue too much about performance guarantees.....

Perhaps not, but CX will certainly require very detailed and convincing performance (and reliability) guarantees from CX before it even thinks about ordering any new Airbus type before it enters service. And I'm sure Airbus knows this. Furthermore, given the ultimate size of the CX order and the prestige of having CX as a 350/380 customer, they will be prepared to go as far as is necessary to meet CX's needs. Getting airplanes early isn't much use if they're not working or performing as they should.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 3:46 am

I certainly wish Boeing would move on the 787-10. I bet we see some movement in that direction after the first flight and certification of the current 787.
One Nation Under God
 
boeing767-300
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 4:38 am

Quoting Par13del (Reply 8):
Boeing767-300, based on your comments, when exactly during the ordering process does a customer require / demand performance guarantes from the OEM?

I believe at that early stage the exact data was unknown especially in terms of performance guarantees. An early chart showed all three variants with around 8500 nm of range. As I have said before the brochure looks great but now Airbus has to 'engineer the brochure' The A350 will be good there is no doubt about that but there are or will be questions about CFRP panels. Airlines have differing reasons for wanting to get aboard a project that has at least a 6 year wait for EIS and as I suggested price and early slots not to mention Airbus wanting a carrier like SQ on board.

But that won't be enough for CX after the A346 debacle... see reply 9 by Kaitak
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:02 am

Quoting Par13del (Reply 8):
Boeing767-300, based on your comments, when exactly during the ordering process does a customer require / demand performance guarantes from the OEM?

Performance guarantees are prepared as part of the purchase decision and are required before a comment to purchase is made.

Airplane price is often contingent on the guarantees offered.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
EI321
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 6:25 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 10):
I certainly wish Boeing would move on the 787-10. I bet we see some movement in that direction after the first flight and certification of the current 787.

Boeing will wait until the 787-8 has completed at least some of its testing, which will enable them to accurately nail down the performance parameters for the 787-9 and 787-10. Then we will see a 787-10 launch, IMO. That could be before Christmas or it could be at next years Farnborough airshow.
 
Norcal773
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 3:38 pm

Me<<< sitting here waiting to see Zeke's spin on this.  biggrin 

I guess Boeing better get on with the 787-10 thing pronto otherwise they'll have their lunch missing from the refrigerator soon.
If you're going through hell, keep going
 
columba
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 3:43 pm

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 7):
Maybe the A350 was offered at a low price with the knowledge that A350 will be a good aircraft but at this price there won't be any technical guarantees on performan

Would be reason enough for LH to order as well.....
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
EI321
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 7:19 pm

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 6):
with their large cargo company i can definately see a 748f, that could give the 748i a better chance, it all depends on where CX wants to go with their airline.

Doubt it, they recently ordered new 747-400's even though the 747-8F was on offer. And they seem to want to do BCF jobs on the passenger 747-400's.
 
columba
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 7:27 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):

Doubt it, they recently ordered new 747-400's even though the 747-8F was on offer. And they seem to want to do BCF jobs on the passenger 747-400's.

Will the 747-400 pilots have a type rate for the -8s as well ? If so the 747BCF/-400F could have the same pilot pool as mainline 747-8Is if they would order them.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
EI321
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 7:44 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 17):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):

Doubt it, they recently ordered new 747-400's even though the 747-8F was on offer. And they seem to want to do BCF jobs on the passenger 747-400's.

Will the 747-400 pilots have a type rate for the -8s as well ? .

Yes, the cockpit is practically identical.
 
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Stitch
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 9:21 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):
(T)hey recently ordered new 747-400's even though the 747-8F was on offer. And they seem to want to do BCF jobs on the passenger 747-400's.

CX has an RR-powered 747 fleet, do they not? They might just have wanted to maintain commonality for the moment.

If CX does add the 787, then the 747-8F could be an option for them since both (can) have GEnx power and CX is taking GE-powered 77Ws (one is just finishing up construction at PAE).
 
CX Flyboy
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 9:24 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):
Doubt it, they recently ordered new 747-400's even though the 747-8F was on offer. And they seem to want to do BCF jobs on the passenger 747-400's.

Not so sure about that. Watch this space!!!  Wink
 
SKY1
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 9:24 pm

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
I guess the one thing against Airbus is that based on previous experience (i.e. with the A340-600), it has expressed a wish not to order early versions of Airbus aircraft; no doubt a card Boeing will play strongly

When that wish has been expressed? evidence? any link?

On the opposite, the FI article says: >"The A350XWB is a larger family of aircraft than the 787 and the A350-900 and A350-1000 will offer good alternatives for us in the future"< (in the last paragraph)
Time flies! Enjoy life!
 
Norcal773
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 10:54 pm

Quoting SKY1 (Reply 21):
When that wish has been expressed? evidence? any link?



Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
I guess the one thing against Airbus is that based on previous experience

I guess you didn't read what he wrote. He said 'based on past experience', didn't say anythign about a link.
If you're going through hell, keep going
 
SKY1
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Thu Aug 16, 2007 11:14 pm

'based on past experience' CX is very happy with their A-330's, A343's and even with these 3 existing A346's.
Time flies! Enjoy life!
 
PVD757
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Fri Aug 17, 2007 1:23 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 13):

Boeing will wait until the 787-8 has completed at least some of its testing, which will enable them to accurately nail down the performance parameters for the 787-9 and 787-10. Then we will see a 787-10 launch, IMO. That could be before Christmas or it could be at next years Farnborough airshow

I totally agree. They have several years already reserved or sold out. I was already under the impression they were close to making the -10 without modifiyng the undercarriage or any other major changes except adding more sections because of the initial analysis that's ongoing. I would actually assume this time would get pushed back if they have major design modifications to tackle. Two things accelerate this schedule. The competitors plane makes them change their schedule or they are confident they and their partners can manage a second assembly line; the latter I give about a 5% chance of happening.
 
zvezda
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Fri Aug 17, 2007 1:33 am

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
It still speaks of an entry date of 2011, which at this stage seems wildly optimistic, even for 787s.

It's plausible that CX have deposits on 2011 delivery slots for the 787.
 
Alitalia744
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Fri Aug 17, 2007 1:40 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
CX has an RR-powered 747 fleet, do they not? They might just have wanted to maintain commonality for the moment.

Which would make sense except for the fact that CX just ordered new 74Fs with PWs. (Only GE and PW are avail on the 74FER)
Some see lines, others see between the lines.
 
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Stitch
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Fri Aug 17, 2007 2:00 am

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 26):
Which would make sense except for the fact that CX just ordered new 74Fs with PWs. (Only GE and PW are avail on the 74FER)

Hmm... Wonder if they plan to get some P&W powered 744s for 744BCF conversions...
 
cloudyapple
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:45 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
Hmm... Wonder if they plan to get some P&W powered 744s for 744BCF conversions...

They already have plenty from SIA in both pax fleet and as BCFs.

B-HKH 747-412(BCF) - 24227 / 831 ex 9V-SMH
B-HKJ 747-412(BCF) - 27133 / 962 ex 9V-SMR
B-HKS 747-412(BCF) - 27070 / 1049 ex 9V-SPC
B-HKD 747-412 - 26548 / 923 ex 9V-SMN
B-HKE 747-412 - 25127 / 859 ex 9V-SMK
B-HKF 747-412 - 25128 / 860 ex 9V-SML
B-HKT 747-412 - 27132 / 955 ex 9V-SMQ
B-HKU 747-412 - 27069 / 1010 ex 9V-SMV **to be delivered**
B-HKV 747-412 - 26552 / 1056 ex 9V-SPD **to be delivered**
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
 
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CCA
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:30 pm

Thats exactly why CX went for PW 74ERFs due to commonality with current PW ex SIA 744s it's quite a hefty 747 fleet now, 24 744s and 19 74Fs (F,SF,BCF) with 2 more BCFs and 6 74ERFs could get 50 747s but the classics will be slowly phased out soon. So hopefully the next Freighter order will be 748F &/or 777F, or a 744 replacement if they decide to convert more pax 744 into BCFs.
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Elite
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:35 pm

Firstly Happy 8th Airliners.net birthday!!

CX should get the A380, I see it being used in the Hong Kong - Toronto or Hong Kong - New York routes.
 
CX Flyboy
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Fri Aug 17, 2007 7:25 pm

Quoting CCA (Reply 29):
if they decide to convert more pax 744 into BCFs.

I have heard that seven of the CX passenger 744 fleet will be converted into freighters under the current plan. I am not sure if this includes the prototype, B-HOU or not.
 
cloudyapple
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RE: CX Holding Off On A380; Interested In 787/350

Sat Aug 18, 2007 1:23 am

In Airbus' Global Market Forecast 2006-2025, Hong Kong is being predicted as the Number 1 VLA hub in the whole wide world with 82 daily VLA movements in 2025 (2:Heathrow/81, 3:Dubai/81, 4:Narita/68, 5:Singapore/59). That is implying something.

Quoting Elite (Reply 30):
CX should get the A380, I see it being used in the Hong Kong - Toronto or Hong Kong - New York routes.

Nice but it hasn't nearly the range. Tech stop required.
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90

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