DAYflyer
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FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:41 am

Well, here we go. Looks like this may not be over yet after all:

Fair use:

The saga of Midwest Air's (MEH: news, board) ownership took a new twist after a large investor in the Milwaukee carrier protested its recently announced plans to sell itself for nearly $400 million to TPG, the private-equity firm once known as Texas Pacific Group.

Pequot Capital Management, a Connecticut hedge-fund manager that owns 8.8% of Midwest Air's shares, said it has "significant concerns" with the decision by Midwest Air's board to pursue an all-cash proposal by TPG.

"We are not convinced that this taxable, all-cash indication of interest is superior to the enhanced cash and stock offer that you indicated was made by Airtran this past weekend," said Pequot in a letter to Midwest, which was part of a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

"In addition, we fail to see how TPG and Northwest will be able to match the job creation and growth opportunities promised by Airtran," the letter read.

Midwest Air late Sunday said it planned to accept a $16, all-cash offer from TPG, turning its back on a sweetened but hostile bid from Orlando-based AirTran Holdings (AAI: news, board) .

Northwest Airlines Corp. said it would participate as a passive investor in the TPG bid, taking no management role in Midwest but providing financing for the deal. See full story.

Midwest Air shares rose 1.1% to $14.15. Airtran shares slipped 0.2% to $10.30. Northwest shares tumbled 1.6% to $18.


http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom...10AA4-5993-4E56-8EB0-644B0AF1D372}

[Edited 2007-08-14 18:42:20]
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DAYflyer
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:47 am

So much for the sale being unanimous....
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sy738fan
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:03 am

I wouldn't hold my breath over this deal falling apart. If there was a legitimate case to be made here, the AirTran insiders on the YX board wouldn't have voted for the TPG/NW proposal in the first place.

If there is going to be a snag in completing the deal, it will be over antitrust issues, not one ruffled shareholder (even such a large one).
False. I do not miss Jim.
 
quickmover
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:09 am

Quoting SY738fan (Reply 2):
I wouldn't hold my breath over this deal falling apart. If there was a legitimate case to be made here, the AirTran insiders on the YX board wouldn't have voted for the TPG/NW proposal in the first place.

If there is going to be a snag in completing the deal, it will be over antitrust issues, not one ruffled shareholder (even such a large one).

Maybe so, but there has to be some type of reason MEH is trading at over a $2.00 discount to the buyout price. The market is usually smarter than any of us and it's telling us something here.
 
sy738fan
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:15 am

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 3):
The market is usually smarter than any of us and it's telling us something here.

Fair point, but MEH was trading at well under the FL offer price as well. Not sure the market has substantively shifted enough to tell us anything new here...
False. I do not miss Jim.
 
quickmover
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:21 am

Quoting SY738fan (Reply 4):
Fair point, but MEH was trading at well under the FL offer price as well. Not sure the market has substantively shifted enough to tell us anything new here...

I can think of two things that are different this time around.
1. The board has voted to accept the offer.
2. All cash deal. Before, any moves in AAI's share price was reflected in MEH. All cash should take that variable away.


Everything I've read would lead me to believe that this was a done deal, but the current price discount is a mystery to me.
 
n917me
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:31 am

Its over.. deal is done.. get over it.
 
sy738fan
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:47 am

Quoting N917ME (Reply 6):
Its over.. deal is done.. get over it.

Well no, it's not "done" - the plan is to finalize the deal tomorrow (Wed). Long term, there are still multiple ways that this could come apart, and I suspect we have an extended round of lawsuits coming regardless of what happens in the immediate future.

That said, I agree the odds appear to strongly favor a successful buyout here.

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 5):
Everything I've read would lead me to believe that this was a done deal, but the current price discount is a mystery to me.

I would have expected YX's price to jump a bit higher as well, but there is still plenty of risk involved, and many have argued here and elsewhere that YX has been somewhat overvalued all along.

It will definitely be interesting to see how this continues to unfold - I must admit that my bias has always been on YX's side, and I'm optimistic to see a potential deal that would allow YX to remain as a stand-alone carrier!
False. I do not miss Jim.
 
isitsafenow
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:55 am

Not over???
I hate to say it but ...the fat lady can be heard clearing her throat for a performance coming real soon.
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citrus1
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:53 am

I for one hope it's over, Midwest was way over valued and too much risk, but the people of Milwaukee need to support Midwest big time, because this group will be looking for a return on it's (too Big) investment, I'll give it a year and if they don't see it, cuts will come and maybe worst. Good luck.
 
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TVNWZ
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 4:03 am

Quoting SY738fan (Reply 7):
I suspect we have an extended round of lawsuits coming regardless of what happens in the immediate future.

Over what? Higher cash price? Unanimous vote including the AAI members? AAI withdrawing it's bid? Cash is king. the complaints are from a hedge fund having to pay a higher tax rate. Sue someone because you have to pay higher taxes? Right, that will work.

Quoting SY738fan (Reply 7):
would have expected YX's price to jump a bit higher as well

Taxes from short-term players at a higher percentage is my guess why it is lower. Worth less right now in trading.
 
sacamojus
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 4:15 am

This buyout from TPG is very interesting. I don't see XY staying the same airline after the buyout. I predict TGP will cut cost considerably to widen the margins for a possible sale to another carrier, like FL.
 
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Tugger
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 4:32 am

Quoting SY738fan (Reply 7):

{Quoting Quickmover (Reply 5):
"Everything I've read would lead me to believe that this was a done deal, but the current price discount is a mystery to me. "- end Quickmover quote}

I would have expected YX's price to jump a bit higher as well, but there is still plenty of risk involved, and many have argued here and elsewhere that YX has been somewhat overvalued all along.

That's because it is overvalued based on Airtran's final bids. The true value is nearer to where Airtran started two years ago (not that they didn't lowball it to begin with). The"value" that Airtran ultimately gave it was due to the synergies, the added value that it would bring to the Airtran network. I won't say that TPG is stupid about its investment or that NW is either. NW has said what it will get, why it want's this: Less competition, less threat to its hub business. And TPG well I think Sacamojus is thinking in the right direction:

Quoting Sacamojus (Reply 11):
I don't see YX staying the same airline after the buyout. I predict TGP will cut cost considerably to widen the margins for a possible sale to another carrier, like FL.

It's possible too that the parts are worth more than the whole. And NW wouldn't be able to do much to stop what TPG does (probably wouldn't want to anyway as it'll just gain business if YX's customers begin to see it moving away from what they prefer).

My two cents.
Tug
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DAYflyer
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 4:39 am

I know the fat lady is singing but this is one interesting snafu thats been thrown at the deal at the last minute.
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quickmover
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 4:43 am

Quoting Tugger (Reply 12):
That's because it is overvalued based on Airtran's final bids. The true value is nearer to where Airtran started two years ago (not that they didn't lowball it to begin with). The"value" that Airtran ultimately gave it was due to the synergies, the added value that it would bring to the Airtran network.

I see what you are saying, but what Midwest is truly worth is irrelevent. They have a $16 cash bid. If there are no doubts that the deal is going to happen, then why aren't arbitragers buying everything in sight in the upper 13's so they can turn it for 16? Why would anyone be selling now in the 13's if they can wait a little while and get 16? That would be a decent profit.

I'm not saying the deals in trouble, but this doesn't add up.
 
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knope2001
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 4:49 am

The Pequot rant is likely just blowhard BS testing the waters to see if there's a chance MEH will reconsider.

Pequot has no particular interest in job creation in Milwaukee, synergies, Midwest employees, or any of that bullcrap they claim. Umm, remember Octavian's pretend-objective analysis? It first praised Midwest for their great turnaround and value...because the MEH takeover offer from AAI wasn't high enough for them to make a good margin of profit on the stock they loaded up on. Then when the AAI offer value increased, suddenly they painted Midwest as teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Remember that sham? That was all a smokescreen masquerading as airline analysis.

Pay attention here, people. The Pequot rant is the same thing and nothing more.

Why are they doing this? I suspect it is taxes. Their intent was to control exactly when and how they cashed out of the post-merger deal by not immediately dumping the AAI stock they'd receive in an AAI takeover. Now they are pissed that instead they are going to be forced to take cash, a direct capital gain. Their deliberate use of the phrase "taxable, all-cash" to describe the TPG buyout is key.

So what can Pequot do? Probably not much short of going with litigation, something that is not particularly likely to succeed in the opinion of a few analyst comments I've seen online today. Remember that corporations are not democracies. The MEH board does not need the approval of the stockholders, even the biggest one who apparently owns 8.8%. None of the other large institutional investors, including hedge funds, have so far joined Pequot, and Octavian in particular declined to comment when queried about this issue.

The other fly in the ointment for Pequot is that the AAI offer is no longer on the table. AAI is not obligated to reinstate the offer, or reinstate it at the same level or price, simply as a bargaining chip to do Pequot's bidding. If AAI comes back and says the $15.75 offer of cash+stock is back on the table, that may incite TPG (with NWA) to up the bid beyond $16 until Pequot is happy, and AAI would in that case still lose.

That doesn't mean that Pequot cannot or definitely will not try to use litigation to block the deal. They might. But it does not seem likely to succeed. As likely as not I suspect Pequot's letter was done (a) in the small chance that others would join in and threaten widespread litigation or otherwise pressure the AAI deal to be resurrected, and (b) as window dressing for the possibility of a tax hit.

[Edited 2007-08-14 21:50:29]
 
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 4:59 am

Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 15):

Nothing I said was related to the Pequot issue. I was referring to why the stock price was being discounted in the face of an all cash offer. Still doesn't seem to make sense and the only reason why stock prices do this is because of real or perceived risk. Someone, somewhere, does not think this will go through for the amounts being offered. I'm not saying it won't but that is what the market is saying (for now).

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 14):
I'm not saying the deals in trouble, but this doesn't add up.

I agree, it's strange....

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daus
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 5:08 am

Quoting Tugger (Reply 16):
I was referring to why the stock price was being discounted in the face of an all cash offer.

For much the same reason as Knope mentioned why Pequot is mad. YX's current price is a reflection of what someone would pay today to own YX. If you know a stock can only ever make it to $16 there is very little point of buying today. You will have to make the investment, pay your transaction fee, wait some undefined period of time, and then pay 35% capital gains on your gain. Before accounting for risk you will make about an 8% return on you money if you buy today and everything goes smooth. Not bad, but not great either.
 
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 5:37 am

Quoting N917ME (Reply 6):
Its over.. deal is done.. get over it.

Considering the hoops that are left to jump through, there's still a chance this deal doesn't happen. While the BOD unanimously approved the deal, the deal still has to be voted on by the share holders. There's still the governmental reviews of the deal as well.


And this just came in over the wires:
AirTran Holdings, Inc., Presents New Offer For Midwest Air Group, Inc.

Offer comes out to $16.25/share, trumping the TPG/NW offer. Looks like someone is going to get into a minor bidding war.
 
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knope2001
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 5:39 am

Quoting Tugger (Reply 16):
Nothing I said was related to the Pequot issue..

And I wasn't addressing you or your post...hope I didn't give that impression.

Quoting Tugger (Reply 16):
I was referring to why the stock price was being discounted in the face of an all cash offer. Still doesn't seem to make sense and the only reason why stock prices do this is because of real or perceived risk. Someone, somewhere, does not think this will go through for the amounts being offered. I'm not saying it won't but that is what the market is saying (for now).

If the market believed that Pequot's objections were going to block the TPG deal and AirTran's offer of $15.75 would prevail, they why wouldn't MEH be trading higher at the prospect of that deal? Pequot says they believe it is worth more than the $16 cash bid.

MEH's lower price...if it is indeed lower based on a belief there is trouble with the deal closing...should logically then suggest there is doubt that ANY deal for Midwest will close in the ranges discussed. The market doesn't care who pays for MEH. If TPG was in danger of not closing and being replaced by AAI's cash + stock bid of $15.75 (as Pequot wants) then Midwest should trade near that. Heck, if the reduced tax burden and synergistic boost that Pequot claims are true, then the AAI deal is worth MORE than $16 in cash. The wisdom of the market should push MEH higher than $16 if they think Pequot will prevail, not lower.

All that said, I don't think the price change means all that much. Buyers of MEH at this point know they are likely to be forced to cash out in the fairly near term, and the cost to purchase and tax liabilities make buying MEH anywhere near $16 today a money-loser.
 
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knope2001
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 5:47 am

Quoting Srbmod (Reply 18):
And this just came in over the wires:
AirTran Holdings, Inc., Presents New Offer For Midwest Air Group, Inc.

Offer comes out to $16.25/share, trumping the TPG/NW offer. Looks like someone is going to get into a minor bidding war.

Ha! So much for all of AirTran's "we don't need them", "the deal was already overpriced", "we're not going to engange in a bidding war", etc. wound-licking from the past 36 hours by AirTran. Good to know they are a company of their word.

Who knows at this point what will happen, but this is so par for the course. I can imagine the Milwaukee media is just peeing allover themselves at this very minute with the breaking news.
 
Mikey711MN
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:06 am

Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 20):
So much for all of AirTran's "we don't need them", "the deal was already overpriced", "we're not going to engange in a bidding war", etc. wound-licking from the past 36 hours by AirTran.

You're usually quite good with the factual analysis, but I truly don't remember FL ever saying any of those things, much less in quotes.

You're respected by me and others around here for your unbiased and thorough analysis. Try not to let bias show at this point in the game.  Wink

-Mike
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EXAAUADL
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:08 am

Quoting N917ME (Reply 6):
Its over.. deal is done.. get over it.

its a bad deal for everyone at ME except upper mgmt
 
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JBo
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:16 am

Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 22):

its a bad deal for everyone at ME except upper mgmt

I assume you talk about the TPG offer, care to explain how?
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
Mikey711MN
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:19 am

Quoting Srbmod (Reply 18):
Offer comes out to $16.25/share, trumping the TPG/NW offer.

Assuming that NW put up the reported--yet quickly and conspicuously retracted--40% of the Sunday night deal, it has always been my opinion that they're simply paying the premium for YX. Put another way, the pre-public-announced-merger-talk stock price was around $9-$10 whereas now it's closer to $14 (~40% higher than "market value").

My theory would be that TPG is purchasing control of YX for "market value" while NW is paying the premium to fight off competing bids. The former has a track record for purchasing stake in airlines at market value [or below]. The latter certainly has a vested interest in keeping competition out of its money-making "heartland", be it MKE with a purported $100M annual revenue or the region at large.

Thus, for any increased counter-offers, as this one by FL is, it would probably be only NW money that must be put up to counter once more.

With that said, NW was very particular about their undisclosed amount being complicit with existing union covenants. The unions have almost equally conspicuously not responded. However, is NW possibly at their other-airline-investing limit, i.e. one more dime sunk into another airline becomes a breach? With that said, did FL know this and just increase their bid to the extent that NW can't cover the premium and TPG won't?

This is very very interesting.

Anyone who happens to know what's in those particular covenants, feel free to share.

-Mike
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ORD2PHL
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:19 am

Why the ME fans and general employees think that the private equity road is good for them is beyond me. TPG wants one thing out of this deal, they don't care about the happy little Midwestern airline you have become - they will cut costs, and the fat to drive efficiencies into your business that couldn't be realized with present management's thinking. Once that is done and they feel they can turn around and sell the company to someone else they will and move on to the next project. At least the Airtran proposal creates jobs, adds service and shows promising growth plans.

ORD2PHL
 
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JBo
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:22 am

Quoting ORD2PHL (Reply 25):
Why the ME fans and general employees think that the private equity road is good for them is beyond me. TPG wants one thing out of this deal, they don't care about the happy little Midwestern airline you have become - they will cut costs, and the fat to drive efficiencies into your business that couldn't be realized with present management's thinking. Once that is done and they feel they can turn around and sell the company to someone else they will and move on to the next project. At least the Airtran proposal creates jobs, adds service and shows promising growth plans.

There's no factual gaurantee that TPG would slash everything at YX nor is there any factual guarantee that AirTran would bring explosive long-term growth. Simple as that.
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
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TVNWZ
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:31 am

And a quick reply....

Midwest Air Group, Inc.
6744 South Howell Avenue
Oak Creek, Wisconsin 53154
414-570-4000
www midwestairlines. corn
Traded: AIvEX (ME!!)
Media Inquiries: Carol Skornicka, 414-570-3980 (o), 414-303-6516 (c) or
CaroL [email protected] corn
Analystllnvestor Inquiries: Dennis O’Reilly, 414-570-3954 (o) or Dennis. 0 [email protected] corn
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 14, 2007
MIDWEST AIR GROUP BOARD OF DIRECTORS
RECEIVES REVISED OFFER FROM AIRTRAN
Milwaukee, Wisconsin, August 14, 2007 — The Board of Directors of Midwest Air Group
(AMEX: MEII), parent company of Midwest Airlines, today said that it has received a letter from
AirTran Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: A.AI) indicating that AirTran was increasing its offer to acquire all
of the outstanding shares of Midwest.
The board will take AirTran’s revised offer under consideration.
Midwest Airlines features jet service throughout the United States, including Milwaukee’s most daily nonstop flight and best schedule to major destinations. Catering to business travelers and discerning leisure travelers, the airline earned its reputation as “The best care in the air” by providing passengers with impeccable service and onboard amenities at competitive fares. Both Skyway Airlines, Inc. — a wholly owned subsidiary of Midwest Airlines — and SkyWest Airlines, Inc. operate as Midwest Connect and offer service to and connections through Midwest Airlines’ hubs. Together, the airlines offer service to 53 cities. More information is available at http://www.midwestairlines.com.
This news release contains forward-looking statements that may state the company’s or management’s intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations or predictions for the future. Words such as “planned,”“projecting,”“expect,”“should,”“anticipate,”“believe,”“estimate,”“goal,”“plan,”“objective” or similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause events contemplated by the company’s forward- looking statements not to occur include, but are not limited to, the risk factors described in “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in the company’s “Annual Report on Form 10-K” for the year ended December 31, 2006.
 
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:32 am

Quoting JBo (Reply 26):
There's no factual gaurantee that TPG would slash everything at YX nor is there any factual guarantee that AirTran would bring explosive long-term growth. Simple as that.

And by that rationale, there's no guarantee of the opposite.
1 Interview. 24 years. 3 Airlines.
 
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JBo
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:32 am

Wouldn't surprise me to see TPG up the bid. If there are people out there with the $$ and the determination to keep YX from going away, it should get interesting.
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
N353SK
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:33 am

Quoting Article (Thread starter):
"In addition, we fail to see how TPG and Northwest will be able to match the job creation and growth opportunities promised by Airtran," the letter read.

To me this just solidifies the fact that this whole article is just a bunch of hot air. Why should a hedge fund stock owner care about job creation, growth opportunities, or anything besides share price?
 
Mikey711MN
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:40 am

Quoting JBo (Reply 30):
Wouldn't surprise me to see TPG up the bid. If there are people out there with the $$ and the determination to keep YX from going away, it should get interesting.

Yes, their name is Northwest. Per my thoughts above, the question is can they follow through on that determination?

Because I don't believe TPG has a vested interest beyond paying market value for YX.

-Mike
I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
 
sacamojus
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:41 am

There is no reason why the BOD would not take the highest bid. Their job doesn't concern YX employees, management, nor customers; they are their for the shareholders benefit and should only think about what is in the best interest for the shareholders. I would love to see who wins the bidding war.

Either way, I stand by my original post and believe that YX the way we know it gone.

[Edited 2007-08-15 00:02:34]
 
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mke717spotter
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:42 am

Seems to me like Joe is starting to become a cry baby over the matter. Can't make up his dang mind. TPG/NW didn't come this far to have FL swoop in with a slightly higher offer and win it all, I'm positive that they will increase their bid as well. There's only so much that FL can/wants to put on the table.
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JBo
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:47 am

Quoting Sacamojus (Reply 33):
Their job doesn't concern XY employees, management, nor customers; they are their for the shareholders benefit and should only think about what is in the best interest for the shareholders. I would love to see who wins the bidding war.

1) It's YX, not XY. Get it right.

2) Not according to Wisconsin State Law, which mandates fair consideration of all stakeholders in such instances ... that means not only shareholders, but employees, passengers, communities, more or less anyone whom Midwest has an impact upon.
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:49 am

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 34):

Give me a break. This is all business and negotiation. Making a "final offer" then upping it when you get outbid is purely business; it has nothing to do with being "honest." All those denouncing Joe as a liar have a utopian view of business. Business is cutthroat...heck, I worked in DC politics...talk about cutthroat there when the buddy you were out at the club with last night will sell you down the creek tomorrow. Welcome to the real world people!
 
quickmover
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:50 am

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 34):
TPG/NW didn't come this far to have FL swoop in with a slightly higher offer and win it all,

FL has been pursuing this alot longer than TPG. The opposite of what you are saying is the case.
 
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JBo
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:53 am

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 36):
Give me a break. This is all business and negotiation. Making a "final offer" then upping it when you get outbid is purely business; it has nothing to do with being "honest." All those denouncing Joe as a liar have a utopian view of business. Business is cutthroat...heck, I worked in DC politics...talk about cutthroat there when the buddy you were out at the club with last night will sell you down the creek tomorrow. Welcome to the real world people!

Which also means we shouldn't believe a damn thing anyone says, no matter which side of the argument one is on.  Wink
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:57 am

Quoting JBo (Reply 38):
Which also means we shouldn't believe a damn thing anyone says, no matter which side of the argument one is on.

More or less. This is high-intensity stuff if you're actually involved in it. I'm sure the folks on Tradeport Blvd. in MCO are not kicked-back in lounge chairs right now. It's a big game of chicken to see who will blink first, and it is very important to FL to not lose, as they seem to feel this is pivotal in the company's development.
 
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knope2001
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:00 am

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 21):
You're usually quite good with the factual analysis, but I truly don't remember FL ever saying any of those things, much less in quotes.

You're respected by me and others around here for your unbiased and thorough analysis. Try not to let bias show at this point in the game.

Those are not exact quotes...they were paraphrased comments, and quotation marks were used to indicate that they were not mine. At least one or two comments came from statements made on radio/TV clips from AirTran, including Tad Hutchinson. I don't know that those would be anyplace I can produce a quote. I'll see what's on the web of similar perspective that AirTran had made up its mind, saw no reason for Midwest's increased value, and wasn't going to engage in a bidding war.

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/...ories/2007/08/13/airtran_0814.html

"AirTran President Bob Fornaro said his company wasn't interested in getting in a bidding war with TPG and Northwest."

"We were not going any higher on our price," said Fornaro. "There was nothing that we saw at Midwest that would make us want to chase this thing"

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-bk-airtran,0,1908607.story

"We set a price and we weren't going to chase the deal," Fornaro said. "We made a decision several days ago -- we were not going to go past 10 o'clock on Sunday night."

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/...dwest_Air_Tran.html?cxntlid=inform

"We've said all along that this (deal) is something we'd like to do, not something we need to do," he said. "We've got great growth prospects independently and that's what we're going to focus on."


It's gotten a lot harder to find some of the stories from a few days ago online because new links of the renewed buyout have replaced old ones to "we're moving on without Midwest" stories where some comments slanted the direction I indicated. But if I find more, I'll post them.
 
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mke717spotter
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:03 am

Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 20):
Ha! So much for all of AirTran's "we don't need them", "the deal was already overpriced", "we're not going to engange in a bidding war", etc. wound-licking from the past 36 hours by AirTran. Good to know they are a company of their word.



Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 21):
You're usually quite good with the factual analysis, but I truly don't remember FL ever saying any of those things, much less in quotes.

"They are probably worth less than they were when we originally made our bid"
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=638797

"We've said all along that this (deal) is something we'd like to do, not something we need to do," AirTran spokesman David Hirschman.
http://blogs.usatoday.com/sky/midwest/index.html
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
ADXMatt
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:04 am

I didn't see this update posted yet......


Press Release Source: Midwest Air Group


Midwest Air Group Board of Directors Receives Revised Offer From AirTran
Tuesday August 14, 5:47 pm ET


MILWAUKEE, Aug. 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Board of Directors of Midwest Air Group (Amex: MEH - News), parent company of Midwest Airlines, today said that it has received a letter from AirTran Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AAI - News) indicating that AirTran was increasing its offer to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Midwest.

The board will take AirTran's revised offer under consideration.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070814/aqtu173.html?.v=14

Air Tran will not just give up. I guess they really want those YX B717's

discuss
 
sacamojus
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:08 am

Quoting JBo (Reply 35):
It's YX, not XY. Get it right.

My apologies, I corrected it.

Quoting JBo (Reply 35):
Not according to Wisconsin State Law, which mandates fair consideration of all stakeholders in such instances ... that means not only shareholders, but employees, passengers, communities, more or less anyone whom Midwest has an impact upon.

Is that for Corporations chartered in Wisconsin? Is YX chartered in Wisconsin? Too lazy to look.
 
RJNUT
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:09 am

would Skywest now pony up their $25 million and become a partner??
 
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mke717spotter
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:09 am

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 37):

I guess your right, but what I was trying to say is that NW is going to do as much as it can to keep FL out of MKE. I just think that TPG/NW has more gas left in the tank than FL does as far as this merger goes.
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:09 am

Quoting ADXMatt (Reply 42):
I guess they really want those YX B717's

Goodness gracious, can we get off of that please? This has been debunked on this forum so many times it's becoming more repetitive than the "when will NW retire the DC-9?" threads! This is not a plane grab. It is an attempt gain a market share in a sizeable market that is unique in that it is controlled by a small, niche carrier rather than a legacy airline or a major LFC.
 
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JBo
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:19 am

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 39):
More or less. This is high-intensity stuff if you're actually involved in it. I'm sure the folks on Tradeport Blvd. in MCO are not kicked-back in lounge chairs right now. It's a big game of chicken to see who will blink first, and it is very important to FL to not lose, as they seem to feel this is pivotal in the company's development.

Agreed. I just don't like the BS that gets spewed out in order to achieve said goal.

I don't doubt that TPG would make big changes to Midwest should their deal to through.

My concern, which I've stated before, is the future of the Midwest Connect side.

AirTran was not successful with Air Wisconsin a few years back, and has not pursued any sort of regional operation since. There are also several solid arguments on the seat mile costs of regional jets, including the FRJ and 1900, not being condusive with AirTran's low-fare philosophy. If the AirTran merger were to go through, I don't doubt they would attempt to keep Skyway in operation ... the question would be how much effort would there be behind keeping Skyway alive. Given their lack of desire to have a regional operation, I don't have much faith.

TPG, on the other hand, appears committed to keeping Midwest as an independent entity. What changes and such they would make if they close the deal are unknown, but given the importance of the regional program to Midwest as it stands today, I would doubt very seriously they would elminiate Midwest Connect. At the very least, much less likely to do so than AirTran.

Given that I live - and work - in a longtime Skyway city, it should go without saying this is a very important issue. The lack of anything specific on AirTran's side about their intentions with Skyway is unnerving to say the least. If AirTran had a long-standing and successful regional side, I'd perhaps be less opposed to the merger.

It's one thing to potentially lose trademarks like the comfortable seating, cookies, and higher standards of service. It's another to potentially lose a scheduled air carrier altogether.

For the sake of all the small YX/Skyway cities out there, let's hope YX is able to form a deal that will keep service alive for years to come.
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
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JBo
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:22 am

Quoting Sacamojus (Reply 43):
My apologies, I corrected it.

No problem.  Smile

Quoting Sacamojus (Reply 43):
Is that for Corporations chartered in Wisconsin? Is YX chartered in Wisconsin? Too lazy to look.

It is, indeed, for Corporations based in Wisconsin, and Midwest Air Group is a Wisconsin Corporation.
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
Mikey711MN
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:31 am

Quoting JBo (Reply 47):
My concern, which I've stated before, is the future of the Midwest Connect side.

Good point. According to the conference call IIRC, the new Midwest Connect SkyWest operation was ostensibly profitable while the Skyway side was not. There were reasons offered as to why that is, if only temporarily, but I did not understand them then nor do I now.

If Connect starts to struggle and fail to contribute to the network at large, this is a very big concern for smaller midwestern communities.

-Mike
I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
 
atlaaron
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RE: FL Vs YX..It Aint Over Yet

Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:35 am

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 3):
Maybe so, but there has to be some type of reason MEH is trading at over a $2.00 discount to the buyout price.

Taxes. Since it is an all cash offer that $16 is taxed.

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