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TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sat Aug 25, 2007 12:02 pm

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 49):
They complain but they consume anyway, which is the psychology of the market

In regards to buying gasoline that is true - people complain more than they conserve. There is a consequence, though, and people are buying less of something else in order to make ends meet. As I said, just ask the people at WalMart. We are only recently seeing ancillary effects, particularly in the price of beef and milk, so I'm not sure we've seen all the effects of $70/bbl oil yet. To be clear - I'm not predicting any doomsday, only that the total effects are greater than you suggest.

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 49):
Different times and different facts? A fact is a fact. Some scare mongers said we could not survive on $75 a barrel oil. We are doing just fine on it, just like before when it was $50 or $35.

It's not $75/bbl I'm worried about. As for "scare mongers" and incorrect predictions, I repeat - you can't dismiss current predictions or analysis just because somebody was wrong in the past.

Another analogy to demonstrate the point: suppose you are lost in a strange town. You ask a friendly person for directions - he seems knowledgeable but the route he gives you is entirely wrong. Does this mean that forever after you will refuse to take directions from another person? Hopefully not, as the quality of information you receive from one person has no influence at all on what you may receive from another.

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 49):
The question is should we worry about some pending critical shortage of oil at prices that we can afford? Answer: No. There is lots of oil to be had, in many forms, in a myriad of locations throughout the world.

You are right that there is lots of oil to be had, but you dismiss the issue of cost. At present we are increasing proven oil reserves at a rate of about 2%/year, but that is lower than the rate of increase in consumption. You say don't worry about it...I say it's foolish not to be concerned.

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 49):
As this relates to air travel, my prediction is that there will be huge growth in the air travel industry for this century.

My prediction is that air traffic growth will be limited by the overall effect of increasing energy costs (and environmental concerns as well). As I usually conclude these discussions: I hope you are right and I am wrong. smile 
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sat Aug 25, 2007 10:50 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 50):
Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 49):
As this relates to air travel, my prediction is that there will be huge growth in the air travel industry for this century.

My prediction is that air traffic growth will be limited by the overall effect of increasing energy costs (and environmental concerns as well). As I usually conclude these discussions: I hope you are right and I am wrong.

Interesting that you both use different terms - air travel and air traffic, with different meanings, though you may have been referring to the same idea.

With regards to air travel, considering that we are only in year 7 of this century, it is still early to predict that there will be "huge growth" in the air travel industry. I can understand why you think that now, but by 2050 the world may be a very different place than you might imagine, let alone what it may look like at the end of the century. I have serious doubts that there will be any "huge growth" in air travel.

With regards to air traffic, I think that commercial air traffic will decrease over the longer term... not because of energy costs or environmental concerns (though those are indeed factors) but due to technology and industry rationaliztion.
 
gbfra
Posts: 427
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sat Aug 25, 2007 11:06 pm

Perhaps the future of aviation will look like this:


http://www.postershop.co.uk/Cote-Jea...Paris-Bordeaux-Airbus-1233648.html
 
gsosbee
Posts: 365
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 8:40 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 12:17 am

From 30 years in the oil exploration and refining business:

* Crude is a commodity which means by default it is subject to human manipulation. We are in a situation where 2/3's to 3/4 of the crude cost is determined by the cost to find and extract, and the remaining is subject to nothing but individual trader and country greed. Gone are the days when a mere over supply of crude could suppress the greed tendencies.

* You cannot compare gas prices in the US with gas prices anywhere else in the world due to the taxes other countries impose. Basically the oil companies are an extension of the tax man.
 
planemaker
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Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 12:49 am

Quoting Gsosbee (Reply 53):
Crude is a commodity which means by default it is subject to human manipulation.

Yes, mainly by vertically integrated oil companies.
 
ncelhr
Posts: 258
Joined: Tue Jul 04, 2006 10:53 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 1:14 am

I earlier this year, I have spent 4 months studying Peak Oil & the possibility of oil running out, as part of a strategic study group for an organisation I cannot disclose. I can, however, disclose some of our findings, since they follow many of the findings which have been published and are available out there.

Very vast subject which cannot be simplified.

1. when one speaks of oil, one is generalising way too much. There are hundreds of different types of crude oil, each with different chaaracteristics, all of which are not suitable for all uses. When one speaks of oil running out, does one speak of Brent Crude, Dubai Crude, sour or sweet oil, light or heavy etc.
2. Peak Oil, in the sense of "oil that is cheap to extract and refine into gasoline" has indeed already peaked. It is the conscensus that all cheap sources of oil have already reached their peak. By cheap, I can quote sweet crude from Saudi Arabia that costs $3 per barrel to extract.
3. new more expensive source of oil are being tapped as we speak. For example, deep sea exploitation is only just starting, with the first deep sea production unit off the coast of Guinea in Africa. Since most of the planet is made up of oceans, there are vast, very vast untapped resources out there. It is only recently, with the improvement in remote-controlled drilling & computerised geostationary ships (using GPS positioning) that we are now able to push the frontier of oil exploration further. Agreed, it is expensive, but it is there.
4. Oil prices are set. There isn't enough space here to explain exactly how, but what matters is that they can be controlled, and are controlled to a level that will:
(a) satisfy the producers
(b) not be too high to slow the world's economy
(c) fluctuate so as to allow for speculation to make money
5. If one takes into account all oil sources, Peak Oil will happen in more than 100 years
6. technology for oil uses & oil refining is improving every year, hence improved yields etc.
7. the world's Refining capacity is what's bursting at the seams at the moment. No new refinery has been built in the last 10+ years and all refineries are working at near 99%. Therefore, as soon as a hurricane hits Texas and refineries need to be shutdown for safety reasons, or refineries get damaged, there is a definite squeeze in the market
8. There is a definite parallel between the Diamond industry & the Oil industry: a resource that is controlled so as to appear as being scarce, whilst there is still plenty of it around. (just think, Diamond is Carbon - but throttling production and sales keep diamond's high cost)
9. before looking a peak oil, one needs to look at Peak CO2. CO2 causes Global Warming and climate change, and that is definitely what's going to stop us from using oil in the future, or to look for alternative energies.
10. Since the airline industry is "credited" with causing around 4% of the world's greenhouse gases (perhaps 10%, some people say), it is still very far from being urged to find alternative fuels.
11. bio-fuels cause more greenhouse gases over their life cycle (ie. production & use) than mineral oil. It is therefore NOT a good alternative - and is dangerous in that it links the price of energy to the price of food. Indeed, for every field that will grow bio-fuels, that's a field that will not grow food.
12. fuel cell technology & hydrogen-based engines might be the answer for aviation. Replacing the APU with a fuel cell is definitely something manufacturers are looking at
13. So before Aviation will be affected, the car manufacturing industry will be affected.
14. One thing is sure: if we do not find alternatives to using oil for our energetic needs, we will all be cooked in 100 years. (ref. Al Gore's film)
15. Since the price of oil will rise with the cost of its extraction & there is a fierce battle among the world's airlines, flying using more efficient aircraft is a key factor of success in the industry, hence the rush to purchase 787s & 350s. Furthermore, new generation aircraft will produce less Greenhouse gases & be therefore seen as Greener than older generation. With the public's awareness raised on this issue, expect passengers to really think twice between using an airliner that uses gas guzzlers and one that uses a new generation 787.

I hope this has raised a few valid points. Thanks for reading.
 
gsosbee
Posts: 365
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 8:40 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 3:16 am

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 54):
Yes, mainly by vertically integrated oil companies.

An incorrect statement. Crude oil prices are set by the commody markets. Non-government owned vertically integrated oil companies buy and sell crude at prices they have very little control over.

How crude is priced and the effects of the price on every company in the chain is the same as coffee, gold, or any other commodity. There are plenty villians to go around, but singleing out vertically integrated oil companies leads to incorrect assumptions and answers.

I don't think that this is the forum for an advanced economics discussion.
 
Ps76
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 6:30 am

I also think that oil should be the last option people choose because of environmental effects. As pilots/aviation enthusiasts it's easy to see how thin the atmosphere is (15,000ft. or just 3 miles of breathable air when the world is like how big?). How long does it really take to fill that air up until it's like breathing near an exhause pipe all the time.

Hopefully in the future the money will be made by those who start wind farms etc. and power infrastrucure changed so people have a choice who supply's their energy (I expect most people want to live cleaner but only need to be offered the choice). However I do like aviation because it's shared transport and hopefully clean or shared transport will get more priority before 1.We're sweating all the time and 2.It becomes impossible to move somewhere where there's cool clean air.

Well it's my opinion anyway(!)

P.
 
flanker
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 7:50 am

Quoting Airbuster (Thread starter):
As the global oil reserve is becoming less and less and nearing a critical state within the coming decade what are you views on the impact this will have on the future of aviation in a whole?

We wont run out any time soon. Dont fall victim to the drive by media and the libs. Theres plenty of oil to go around.
 
wingnut767
Posts: 762
Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2006 7:50 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 8:37 am

Quoting Travellin'man (Reply 9):
The other great concern are the indirect costs of putting carbon in the atmosphere. While not directly attributable to your plane ticket in terms of its cost, the impact of carbon emissions and the consequent rapid warming of our atmosphere (just to be pre-emptive here, this is about as close to a hard fact as one can get, with the overwhelming majority of the world's scientific community in agreement that, any natural cycling of the planet's temperature aside, mankind's carbon emissions are radically heating the atmosphere and altering the climate) has costs that we all end up paying for in other ways



Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 55):
9. before looking a peak oil, one needs to look at Peak CO2. CO2 causes Global Warming and climate change, and that is definitely what's going to stop us from using oil in the future, or to look for alternative energies.
10. Since the airline industry is "credited" with causing around 4% of the world's greenhouse gases (perhaps 10%, some people say), it is still very far from being urged to find alternative fuels.



Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 55):
14. One thing is sure: if we do not find alternatives to using oil for our energetic needs, we will all be cooked in 100 years. (ref. Al Gore's film)



Quoting Ps76 (Reply 57):
I also think that oil should be the last option people choose because of environmental effects. As pilots/aviation enthusiasts it's easy to see how thin the atmosphere is (15,000ft. or just 3 miles of breathable air when the world is like how big?). How long does it really take to fill that air up until it's like breathing near an exhause pipe all the time.

Hopefully in the future the money will be made by those who start wind farms etc. and power infrastrucure changed so people have a choice who supply's their energy (I expect most people want to live cleaner but only need to be offered the choice). However I do like aviation because it's shared transport and hopefully clean or shared transport will get more priority before 1.We're sweating all the time and 2.It becomes impossible to move somewhere where there's cool clean air.

Enough of the global warming tripe (hype). The thread is not about Al Bore's man made global warming charade. The post is about the future of oil reserves and what Aviation can do about it. I am sure there is some web site that allows you to complain about the theory of man made global warming and big oil.

Quoting Flanker (Reply 58):
Quoting Airbuster (Thread starter):
As the global oil reserve is becoming less and less and nearing a critical state within the coming decade what are you views on the impact this will have on the future of aviation in a whole?

We wont run out any time soon. Dont fall victim to the drive by media and the libs. Theres plenty of oil to go around.

The same liberal media that promotes politicians trying to sell us on the global warming Kool-Aid and shuns real climate scientist and actual science.
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 8:56 am

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 51):
Interesting that you both use different terms - air travel and air traffic, with different meanings, though you may have been referring to the same idea.

I'm thinking of seatmiles flown. How that breaks down in terms of size of aircraft, length of segments flown and the overall motivation for travel is a much more specific question. I expect less regional flying, but balanced against continued growth and fragmentation of the longhaul market. People will fly when it's required, but will tend to return to road or rail if they exist as a viable option. Look back to people's behavior in the 1960's when air travel was considered expensive - the future may look similar. People will still fly, but it will be appreciated as a luxury. We can hope that US domestic service will return to levels that suit such luxury. smirk 

Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 55):
Very vast subject which cannot be simplified

Very much so! One thing I can't agree with you on is the parallel between diamonds and oil. The diamond market is dominated by DeBeers, a single company which produces some 40% of the world total and which buys sufficient other production to control more than 50% of the diamonds delivered to market. That kind of sole-source dominance does not exist in the petroleum market.

The price of diamonds is sustained by marketing rather than by restriction of supply. There is not and never has been any shortage of diamonds, claimed or real. Very simply, diamonds are not rare!

As for oil, there is no single producer, nation, or organization that has that level of influence. OPEC tries, but their members routinely disregard production quotas (look to the "oil glut" of the 1990's for example). Given the current price of oil - I question whether any nation with capability to sustain higher production would hesitate to do so.
 
ncelhr
Posts: 258
Joined: Tue Jul 04, 2006 10:53 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 11:07 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 60):
Very much so! One thing I can't agree with you on is the parallel between diamonds and oil.

We don't disagree with each other. I think I might have not made myself completely clear.

You are 100% corect with regards to the diamond market.

When OPEC had significant control over the oil market, they could increase or decrease production to control the price in a same way. These days, OPEC only controls 40% of production, so yes, they have much less control, and new non-OPEC producers keep on increasing their production.
However, the bottleneck is at refinery level now. With China's increasing use of oil, refining capability is not following up.

That said, there are thousands, if not tens of thousands of people on the planet that are currently working on this subject and I shouldn't worry about any shortage or price of oil, especially in the context of aviation fuel. But since oil tax revenues are one of the world's governments major sources of income, expect more taxes on oil, including taxes on its environmental impact, whether justified or not. Indeed, there are thousands, if not tens of thousands of people that will want to make a quick buck on the back of passengers by justifying it with a "war in the middle east", "hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico", "civil disturbance in South America", "big freeze in Alaska" or "booming demand in Asia".

Why? Because air travellers are rich. You may not think so, but in comparison to the world's population average income, they are.

[Edited 2007-08-26 04:07:44]
 
Ps76
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Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2004 7:52 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 12:24 pm

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 59):
Enough of the global warming tripe (hype). The thread is not about Al Bore's man made global warming charade. The post is about the future of oil reserves and what Aviation can do about it.

Then please enlighten us with some thoughts on the subject. Or do you just post insults.

P.
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 12:53 pm

Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 61):
Why? Because air travellers are rich. You may not think so, but in comparison to the world's population average income, they are.

Agreed. Air travel is relatively expensive; for most of the world's population it is and will remain a rarity.

Projections for future growth in aviation revolve around expectations for the Asian market. Unfortunately, many people on A.Net look at the huge populations there and propose that they will need gigantic aircraft (such as the A380) to accommodate it. That's a fallacy, as at best only a minority of those populations will ever realistically be able to afford air travel on a regular basis. I think that China and India will each represent a market on par with the US or EU (which is plenty big!) but they are not going to need fleets of VLA's for domestic use as so many want to believe.
 
TeamAmerica
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Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 1:04 pm

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 59):
The same liberal media that promotes politicians trying to sell us on the global warming Kool-Aid and shuns real climate scientist and actual science.

Yikes! All that and "Peace through superior firepower" as your signature. Argument over - you win! sarcastic 
 
lehpron
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 3:44 pm

From a fuel efficiency standpoint, automobiles waste more fuel than an airplane ever would. The average airplane carries 200pax, travels at least 5000 miles in 10hrs with 30k gallons of fuel. If we divided miles per gallon, yeah we'd get a scant 0.167. But cars don't carry 200 people (usually just the driver) or move at 500mph, so we multiply and get 276 miles per gallon.

The world's cars simply do not fall above that mark. To justify is claiming jets waste fuel, every driver in the world must trade in their car/truck for a super hybrid vehicle that can get 10 times more efficient -- which they wont as the technology is either currently too expensive or don't exist.

Automobiles need to either get real efficienct real quick, or change their fuel. IMO, global fuel issues should focus on that which doesn't move people around efficiently. Airplanes do a better job.

[Edited 2007-08-26 08:48:20]
 
wingnut767
Posts: 762
Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2006 7:50 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 7:30 pm

Quoting Ps76 (Reply 62):
Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 59):
Enough of the global warming tripe (hype). The thread is not about Al Bore's man made global warming charade. The post is about the future of oil reserves and what Aviation can do about it.

Then please enlighten us with some thoughts on the subject. Or do you just post insults.

P.

Temperature Record of the Week
Temperature Record of the Week is from Dixon, IL. During the period of most significant greenhouse gas buildup over the past century, i.e., 1930 and onward, Dixon's mean annual temperature has cooled by 2.01 degrees Fahrenheit. Not much global warming here!

There Has Been Little Net Global Warming Over the Past 70 Years
http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO...cienceB2C/articles/V3/N13/EDIT.jsp

Medieval Warm Period Record of the Week
http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO...ta/mwp/studies/l3_nearabiansea.jsp

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING
http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?ide=4

Long Range Solar Forecast

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm

'The IPCC goes looking for
bad news'
http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/article/3111/


FACT: The Earth has often been hotter than it is now.

FACT: Only a tiny portion of greenhouse gases are man-made.

FACT: Most of Antarctica is getting cooler.


The really big lie about man-made global warming is that almost all scientists accept it. More than 4,000 scientists from 106 countries, including 72 Nobel prize winners, signed the Heidelberg Appeal (1992), calling for a rational scientific approach to environmental problems. Many senior scientists have also supported The Statement by Atmospheric Scientists on Greenhouse Warming (1992), The Leipzig Declaration (1997) and finally the Oregon Petition (1998) which received the signatures of over 19,000 scientists.

Water Vapor Rules
the Greenhouse System

http://mysite.verizon.net/mhieb/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html


The Lie is Teamamerica that most real scientist disagree with the cause and effect of co2 on our enviroment. The IPCC is led by politicians, Socialist, green party and not to name the numerous countries on the IPCC board that I would not go to get a flu shot from. The list of so called scientist on the IPCC is a joke.

That is why the IPCC is completely silent when asked the most basic questions pertaining to their so-called "evidence
What particular questions have they been dodging, and from whom?

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/s...4d-4a1c-45c0-af24-031a1380121a&k=0
http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/articles/castlescomment.html


And also could you tell me how during the medievil warming period temps where warmer then they are now. Also if you have not read the ice caps on Mars are melting also.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 64):
Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 59):
The same liberal media that promotes politicians trying to sell us on the global warming Kool-Aid and shuns real climate scientist and actual science.

Yikes! All that and "Peace through superior firepower" as your signature. Argument over - you win!

Such a smug response from someone that I was not even quoting- you win
 
wingnut767
Posts: 762
Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2006 7:50 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sun Aug 26, 2007 10:56 pm

Quoting Ps76 (Reply 62):
Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 59):
Enough of the global warming tripe (hype). The thread is not about Al Bore's man made global warming charade. The post is about the future of oil reserves and what Aviation can do about it.

Then please enlighten us with some thoughts on the subject. Or do you just post insults.

I was not insulting you. Just Al Gore

Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 55):
5. If one takes into account all oil sources, Peak Oil will happen in more than 100 years
6. technology for oil uses & oil refining is improving every year, hence improved yields etc.
7. the world's Refining capacity is what's bursting at the seams at the moment. No new refinery has been built in the last 10+ years and all refineries are working at near 99%. Therefore, as soon as a hurricane hits Texas and refineries need to be shutdown for safety reasons, or refineries get damaged, there is a definite squeeze in the market



Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 55):
11. bio-fuels cause more greenhouse gases over their life cycle (ie. production & use) than mineral oil. It is therefore NOT a good alternative - and is dangerous in that it links the price of energy to the price of food. Indeed, for every field that will grow bio-fuels, that's a field that will not grow food

I happen to agree with your above statements.. Particulary the Bio fuels. Ethanol is energy negative and puts to much pressure on the food supply and soil.
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 12:47 am

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 66):
There Has Been Little Net Global Warming Over the Past 70 Years
http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO...cienceB2C/articles/V3/N13/EDIT.jsp

Medieval Warm Period Record of the Week
http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO...ta/mwp/studies/l3_nearabiansea.jsp

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING
http://www.friendsofscience.org/inde...ide=4

You do know, don't you, that the "real" scientists in the above links have been funded by ExxonMobile!  rotf 

When even the current administration (backed by oil money) is talking about climate change and reducing carbon emmisions you should at least realize that the debate is over!
 
wingnut767
Posts: 762
Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2006 7:50 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 5:03 am

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 68):
You do know, don't you, that the "real" scientists in the above links have been funded by ExxonMobile!

Do you have links to back that up?
Do you have any real studies that prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that man made CO2 is causing the temps to rise. I keep hearing that this is what the scientist say but they have yet to produce anything but hot air.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 68):
When even the current administration (backed by oil money) is talking about climate change and reducing carbon emissions you should at least realize that the debate is over!

You do think they actually believe that. . And when a politician tells you the scientific debate is over , run to the hills. Or check your pocketbook because a new tax is coming.
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:42 am

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 66):
Such a smug response from someone that I was not even quoting- you win

This thread is not about global warming (nor politics) so jeers were in order for that alone.

Beyond that, your open disregard for actual science effectively places you in support of the 1 out of 5 dentists who don't believe in brushing with Crest, but rather that we should go back to jabbing our gums with pointy sticks.

I just don't have any patience for this nonsense that you are spewing, such as:

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 66):
The Lie is Teamamerica that most real scientist disagree with the cause and effect of co2 on our enviroment.

No sir, most scientists are clearly in agreement as to the causes of global warming. We don't need to agree on every detail to know that there is a big problem. The US Dept of Defense knows it, Mr. Bush knows it, and yet there remain people (all too many being my countrymen) who openly refuse to engage the facts. If you really want to debate it, start a thread in Non-Av where it belongs, and stop hijacking this discussion.
 
wingnut767
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Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2006 7:50 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:26 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 70):
No sir, most scientists are clearly in agreement as to the causes of global warming. We don't need to agree on every detail to know that there is a big problem. The US Dept of Defense knows it, Mr. Bush knows it, and yet there remain people (all too many being my countrymen) who openly refuse to engage the facts. If you really want to debate it, start a thread in Non-Av where it belongs, and stop hijacking this discussion.

Yes Sir . Right away. And I did not hijack it. I just pointed out the posts that had to dump global warming onto the conversation on global oil reserves. And once again can you point me to these actual facts and to this majority of scientist's. Specifically Climatoligists.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 70):
I just don't have any patience for this nonsense that you are spewing, such as:

Spoken like a true Al Gore robot. Stifle conversation and debate. The Science is settled. Now pay your carbon tax. Unlike you I actually posted links to scientific findings.
 
prebennorholm
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:42 am

All aviation in the world consumes roughly 3% of the total oil consumption.

"All aviation" = cargo and passenger airliners, military and private aviation.

Whatever happens to oil supply, the other 97% will have a much larger impact on society.
 
User avatar
northstardc4m
Posts: 3472
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:58 am

ok since no one else dropped this fact:

Gas Turbines (aka Jet Engines) will burn almost anything with some design changes. Before the fall of the USSR, the Soviets flew the Tu-155, a Tu-154 powered by Cryogenic Hydrogen (in one engine) and were planning the Tu-156 and Tu-206, both would of been fully Cryo-fuel powered. Airbus and Sukhoi were working on a Cryo-Fueled A310 conversion in the mid 90s as well.

There are jet engines in the industrial world burning LNG, Propane, Butane, Recovered Landfill Methane and god knows what else...

There are modified turbojets burning pure 100% corn ethanol in industrial demonstration setups... and i know of at least one surplus engine burning vegetable oils...

The list is endless... Kerosene is still cheap is all. Airplanes ain't going anywhere.

The return of the nuclear powered plane isn't impossible either...
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:30 am

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 69):
Do you have links to back that up?

Yes, there are quite a few links and sources of information out there in fact... and the people & organizations behind the links you posted are a complete joke! The fact that you you used those links without checking out their backgrounds and history really shows just how gullible you are!!

I especially like the Oregon Petition B$... have you actually read anything about the controversy over it?

The guy, Frederick Seitz, who wrote the fraudulant petition for the "petition sponser", The Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine - OISM (which is a nutbar small group... see link further below), use to work for the tabacco industry!!!  rotfl 

RJ Reynolds dumped him in 1989 because, "Dr. Seitz is quite elderly and not sufficiently rational to offer advice."

Seitz also claimed that CFCs do NOT damage the ozone layer!!  rotfl 

Since then he has been pushing his snake oil schtick (and tobacco industry cancer denial strategies) on climate change with the same group of snake oilers... funded by the oil industry.

He is now President of the Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)... which just so happened to have had a member who wrote the Leipzig Declaration. Big grin

He is also on the Board of the George C. Marshall Institute... that has also received funding by ExxonMobile (and the tobacco industry).

Re. the OISM, check out their web site... http://www.oism.org/oism/s32p25.htm

They sell material on how to survive a Nuclear War!! Really, talk about a nutbar group!!

You should try to investigate at least just a little bit about your postition.

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 69):
You do think they actually believe that. . And when a politician tells you the scientific debate is over , run to the hills. Or check your pocketbook because a new tax is coming.

You ignore President Bush and his pal "Hliburton" Dick (the ultimate "deniers" who have tried every which way to defend their pals in the oil industry) having to finally admit to global warming and instead believe a bunch of nutbar people and truly looney web sites that have prostituted themselves with money from the oil industry. Umm, OK!
 
isitsafenow
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2004 9:22 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:48 am

There is lots of oil still down there. Problem is getting it up here. Michigan as extracted only 30 percent since the 1920's from the ground. The rest can be brought up using CO2 forced in the ground. The CO2 will come from coal de-gassification
...take the CO2 out of coal and use it push the oil up. Then use the coal to fire plants to produce electricity cleanly.
Places in Europe is doing this and the USA is in some western states.
Oil we have, refineries is a much different question.
safe
 
baron95
Posts: 1106
Joined: Thu May 25, 2006 10:19 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 10:53 am

Quoting MMEPHX (Reply 11):
2) It will take more energy to extract than the energy contained in the extracted oil

This is not the issure it seems to be. It won't be an impediment to continuing to extract oil economically.

Let me give you an example. Lets say we discover a huge oil deposit in Alaska that is too deep, too far, etc, etc so that is takes the energy equivalent of 2 barrels of oil to extract and transport one barrel. So I build a nuclear power plant at the right spot to supply that energy.

While it is impractical to have nuclear reactors supplying the energy for airline flight, it is practical to have nuclear power to supply electrical and steam power for all sorts of mining, refining, transportation, industries.

So.... airliners and most cars would still be running on liquid fossil fuels while the rest of the oil industrial cycle gets replaced by nuclear/hydroelectric/solar/wind-driven sources of energy that are impractical for flight.

You are not claiming we'll run out of nuclear raw materials, sun, water, wind, etc at the same time we are running out of cheap to extract oil, are you?

Really, there is NO likely scenario where we'll run out of oil for air/(and most car) transport in the next 100 years.

It is really not worth spending the time on.

Incidentally, if hydrogen is ever to become a usable fuel, it would be "created" using nuclear/hydroelectric and other non-oil based energy sources. Oil will just be too valuable to burn to extract hidrogen.
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 11:11 am

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 17):
Not really...current technology can, at best, get about 25% of the oil out of any particular reservoir. Obviously, that will go up with technology, but it's an asymptotic problem so we'll never be able to extract all of the oil that's in the ground.

There seems to be a problem on this thread with what is being quoted as reserves. Unfortunately, this is not entirely simple. In general 1P is what you really think you can produce. 2P reserves include some lower confidence oil. 3P we will not go into. BUT, reserves are what you can produce. If you cannot produce it, you cannot sell it. Equally if you cannot buy it from a seller it is not going to do you much good.
Many (but not all) of the higher figures quoted on this thread are not reserves, they are RESOURCES. Mixing reserves and resources leads to pointless arguing about different things.

Uncertainties for resources exist about any of:
1. Actual existence (oil under the N Polar seas for example)
2. Feasibility of extraction (also a problem for Polar seas oils IF they exist) but also relating to other matters such as availability of water for the Green River (GRF) oil shales and half a dozen other problems associated with recovering oil from those shales)
3. Costs (if production costs are not less than the price you can get it simply will not happen, well not for long!!!)

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 20):
Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 13):
Oil that is pumped from the sea, and not from the arab nations, will be a stable supply, eliminating the speculator's security premium.

Exactly what "oil from the sea" are you thinking of? There are offshore reserves, certainly, but where on Earth are there reserves that rival the Middle East?



Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 20):
Bottom line is that there is no reasonable expectation that any reserve as large as Cantarell could be located, and lacking that Mexican oil production will continue to decline. This is pretty much the case in every developed oil region. We still find new fields in the US, but overall production has steadily declined.

You cannot pump more oil out the ground just by throwing money at it. At some point, there is a maximum sustainable rate of production from any oil field, and that production inevitably reaches a point of decline. Advancing technology has mostly helped to increase the ultimate total oil extracted, but not so much to increase the rate of production.

All true TA. Excellent stuff. I just hope some is believed by the Kool Aid no problems brigade.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 30):
We hope? The area hasn't been explored in any detail, so that assertion has no basis in fact. Best guess is the region may contain about 1/4 of the yet-to-be-discovered reserves. Then there's the cost of production to consider.


Too right it has not been explored. So far it has to be added to a number of other HUGE, RICH oil provinces such as the Falklands and the Spratly Islands. Hype>>>>>>>>proved reserves!!!!

As for deciding that if drilling technology can operate in 5 km of water (close to true), then another 70% - or whatever - of the earths surface is prospective, well that is a nonsence. We already know that over most of the oceans basins, the sedimentary section is very thin - the deep sea drilling program has shown that for the most part the section is exactly what was predicted.

The deep water oil is being found on the continental rises. The Gulf of Mexico is one area but offshore Angola and Mauretania and Brazil are also important. These last two also illustrate the problems. The source of the oil is downfaulted lake deposits formed when S American and S Africa came to a parting of the ways. Most of the reservoirs are in young sands deposited on the new continental slopes, and these sands are not like the "normal" sands found say in a Pennsylvanian oil field. Some of these promising discoveries are now producing at about a third of the expected rates due to sand conditions and ultimate recoveries look like being reduced.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 30):
That "huge find" is estimated between 3 and 15 billion barrels, including natural gas as oil equivalent. Sounds big...but it's really not, especially compared to Saudi Arabia's proven reserves of 250 billion barrels.



Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 42):
I've been personally involved in at least four 1+billion bbl finds in the last decade in the Gulf.

I wonder which fields are being referred to here. The sources I can find (including the AAPG Explorer) suggest 1P reserves for recent Gulf fields get up to about 750 mmbo which is real nice, but not billions. And recently a few have had the initial recoverable reserves reduced on further appraisal.

In general, there appears to be a trend that downward revision of deep offshore reserves is more common that for continental or shallower continental reserves. There are some reasons why this might be happening but it goes a bit beyond this thread.

Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 55):
I hope this has raised a few valid points. Thanks for reading.

Nice post Ncelhr, although like TA I dont agree with it all. I don't plan to be around to check directly if your 100 years for peak oil could be true, but I think I might only have to last another 5 or so to prove it wrong.

On a technical point, refinery shortfall is a factor. However, it is were the cause of high prices what you should see is LOW crude prices and very very high refinery margins. Margins are a bit high but not nearly enough and if there was not enough capacity, why is there still a demand for crude???? So I don't think that the facts bear out that suggestion.
It is true that the really big oil companies have more ability than most organizations to shift profits, but as they complain about producer governments tax rates like a bunch of stuck pigs, you would not think they would be shifting profits there! Maybe I am missing something.

Quoting Gsosbee (Reply 56):
There are plenty villians to go around, but singleing out vertically integrated oil companies leads to incorrect assumptions and answers.

Good observation that big oil is not quite as bad as folk like to paint it.
Just as an observation (actually a repeat as I have made it before) one of big oil's problems is that they have had to rescale their operations. Time was when Exxon was not really interested in finding anything less than 500 mmbo recoverable reserves, then it went to 100, now who knows but much smaller. Meanwhile, its own overheads might well have gone up rather than down making life quite difficult - behind the monster profits, so not a really difficult life still!!

Quoting NorthStarDC4M (Reply 73):
The list is endless... Kerosene is still cheap is all. Airplanes ain't going anywhere.

Oddly enough, the cost is not that critical for longer range aircraft. It is energy density that is the key - a combination of relative density and specific heat of combustion. Hydrogen is great for heat, but bad on density. A lump of petroleum coke gets you really good energy per unit volume, but is really difficult to burn in a turbine!  Smile  Big grin
Equally oddly enough, fixing coal so that its products will burn in gas turbines is one path to greater energy efficiency - provided that processing the coal to a suitable fuel is not even more energy consuming.

Just for fun, here is a micrograph of Green River formation. The yellow is the oil precursor. It is solid. Not so easy to extract. Field width is 0.22mm.

Big version: Width: 1654 Height: 980 File size: 100kb
 
baron95
Posts: 1106
Joined: Thu May 25, 2006 10:19 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 12:04 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 63):
think that China and India will each represent a market on par with the US or EU

I think that will never happen.

First China and India have recently experienced a very fast groth rate (though the official 10%+ rates are grossly exagerated) due to economic liberalization, industrial substitution and off-shoring. Those groth rates will not continue forever. So don't count on extrapoloating groth rates in China/India vs US/EU into the mid-long term future.

Second, the US/EU have had colonies/interests all over the world for over a century and have a *HUGE* amount of past/present/future immigrants in their populations. That makes for a *HUGE* need for air travel for military, commercial and personal reasons.

Third, the populations of China and India are much, much less mobile than that of the EU and particularly that of the US. As a result, the demand for internal travel in China/India to visit friends and family is tiny compared to that of the EU and specially that of the US.

There are many other geographical/cultural characteristics that set the US and the EU appart from India/China that encourage/inhibit air travel respectively.

So, I can't see ANY scenario that makes air commerce in China or India approaching that of the EU or US.
 
tdscanuck
Posts: 8573
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:25 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:08 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 77):
Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 42):
I've been personally involved in at least four 1+billion bbl finds in the last decade in the Gulf.

I wonder which fields are being referred to here. The sources I can find (including the AAPG Explorer) suggest 1P reserves for recent Gulf fields get up to about 750 mmbo which is real nice, but not billions. And recently a few have had the initial recoverable reserves reduced on further appraisal.

Sorry, I should have been clearer on that. I was talking total oil-in-place, not 1P reserves. I was thinking of Thunder Horse (BP), Atlantis (BP), Shenzi (BHP Billiton), and Tahiti (Chevron).

Tom.
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:57 pm

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 79):
Sorry, I should have been clearer on that. I was talking total oil-in-place, not 1P reserves. I was thinking of Thunder Horse (BP), Atlantis (BP), Shenzi (BHP Billiton), and Tahiti (Chevron).

Quick reply is, I thought that was probably the case. Longer reply is I will see if I can dig out the current 1P or whatever they are admitting to!!

Intermediate reply is that these four fields are great for the companies wot found em, but will replace US current oil imports, oh for nearly a year*!! This is the dimension of the problem that the US has engineered itself into. Gross income to the companies of about 180 billion dollars, but costs will be at least half of that over the field life and if there are many more Katrinas, could be even more.

I presume, Tdscanuck, that the newer platforms are going to be a bit more robust than the ones that were lost last time and a good deal more expensive. Making the pipelines less susceptible to damage will also cost a pretty penny and then some.

*I am just fresh off an overnight return flight across the Pacific (from Canuckland), so slipping a decimal in that calculation is definitely a possibility, but I think just under a year is about right.
 
tdscanuck
Posts: 8573
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:25 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:51 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 80):
I presume, Tdscanuck, that the newer platforms are going to be a bit more robust than the ones that were lost last time and a good deal more expensive.

That's the theory, although Thunder Horse took a severe beating during Katrina (which it should have been fine for) that nearly flipped it over (ballast control fault). They recovered it, but it was touch-and-go for a while.

The deepwater platforms are built strong and are huge, which helps. The seafloor infrastructure is so far down that it doesn't even notice the storm. The big weak link is the pipelines to shore...all you need is one loose barge or old platform to fall in the right spot and you're kaput, even if the platform itself is fine.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 80):
Intermediate reply is that these four fields are great for the companies wot found em, but will replace US current oil imports, oh for nearly a year*!!



Quoting Baroque (Reply 80):
I am just fresh off an overnight return flight across the Pacific (from Canuckland), so slipping a decimal in that calculation is definitely a possibility, but I think just under a year is about right.

That sounds about right...combined output from Thunder Horse, Atlantis, Shenzi, and Tahiti should be about 2-4 BBOE over their lifetime. The US consumes about 25 MMBPD, so if just those four fields were supplying the US they'd last 4-6 months.

Of course, they don't have nearly that output. Peak output from all four fields at max would be about 1 MMBPD so they'll be providing a few % of the US supply for a few decades.

Tom.
 
iwok
Posts: 979
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 2:35 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 5:07 pm

Quoting Airbuster (Thread starter):
As the global oil reserve is becoming less and less and nearing a critical state

Factually, this statement is incorrect, but the thread is still a good idea.

I believe that bio diesel when made from bio waste is a good idea to replace jet A, but unfortunately its still too expensive.

Quoting LaminarFlow (Reply 3):
I believe that the forthcoming oil crisis will be a prime catalyst for the development of fantastic new technologies introduced to the aviation industry.

A POTENTIAL oil crisis could indeed do as you suspect for technology development. From what I have heard, the geared turbo fan, in conjunction with a recuperator could offer almost 15% reduction in fuel burn.

Recuperation is used in many industries from power to steam generation as a means of increasing efficiency, but I suspect its a little difficult to desing into a lightweight engine. Definately a nice design problem there  Smile

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 5):
But what I really meant is that they will continue to become more efficient and possibly run on a mix of alternative fuels

Regarding "alternative fuels" I agree as long as you mean bio diesel.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 6):
Agreed on both counts. Blended-Wing designs will provide a step-change in efficiency. Alternative fuels will likely play a huge role, but they will not be cheap. 

Agreed on the BWB. If you combine that with a recuperated GTF you could probably reduce fuel burn by a good 30%.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 8):
There is so much that can be done to drop fuel burn. None of it easy engineering. So hire more Aerospace R&D engineers!

Amen to that  bigthumbsup 

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 15):
However, carbon emissions already are an increasing factor and that is going to have an impact on the industry going forward.

I hope our politicians realize their folly and drop this whole carbon emissions baloney: oops, I don't suppose they will.  Sad

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 16):
I am sure that all modes of transportation in the future will use electric motors, maybe linear classic rotor to turn the fan. they are highly efficient and the most reliable and cheap to produce

Sounds great..

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 16):
the trick is only to store enough electricity

Ahh, herein is the problem. There is no viable way to do this, so its more of a major world wide technology development effort as opposed to a mear "trick."

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 17):
This is exactly what's driving the big jump in efficiency of the next generation of jet liners. Several manufacturers are also looking at biofuels, coal-derived fuels, and fuel cells.

Bio-fuels and coal derived fuels will work. Fuel cells will not. Hydrogen generation on the scale needed for supplying the world's fleet of aircraft is far more expensive that using Jet A, plus compressing it into liquid state also takes addtional energy. Not to mention that H2 fuel tanks will be very heavy for either cryo or compressed gas systems. Point in fact: all the fuel cells which are being shoe horned into UAV's are still no better than the most advanced batteries, cost an absolute boat load and are throurougly whipped by JP8 fueled units.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 19):
But fuel cells have a theoretical fuel efficiency far above gas turbines

Fuel cells have much lower efficiency than people care to admit. The most efficiency hydrogen fueled car (theoretical that is) has similar MPG equiavalent efficiency to a hybrid, direct injection IC engine with displacement on demand and electic accessories.

I think the main advantage of fuel cells is that they offer opportunities for high value missions where there is no alternative such as in space and in certain long-run time applications. Using them for automotive, residential and stationary power always results in well-to-wheel efficiency lower that what you can get with a real good IC engine. Gas turbines are even harder to beat with fuel cells.

Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 55):
12. fuel cell technology & hydrogen-based engines might be the answer for aviation.

I wouldn't bank on that  no  I expect that reducing our consumption is the best way to go, and that means BWB, composite fusealages, recuperated GTF.

Another thing I think would be very usefull is to use the turbine on the 787 as a generator during decent. If the energy generated during descent can be stored in a battery bank, electrolyzed hydrogen or fly wheel, then once you are on the ground you'd never have to run an engine until the takeoff roll.

-iwok
 
flitemax
Posts: 103
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2007 6:35 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 5:42 pm

I know this might be considered off-topic: It's very conceivable that the single largest threat to commercial aviation in the next 100 years won't be the supply of oil but environmental and external factors! Most of us agree that carbon fuels will not be depleted before 2200AD . Having said that, consider an ever-warming planet, unending natural disasters, nuclear wars, and sociopolitical upheavals in every corner of the globe. To a large extent, we're already witnessing the beginning of these symptoms everywhere:

9/11 (forced many established and old carriers out of the business)
SARS epidemic (heavily affected Asian civil aviation)
'04 Tsunami (affected the charter business to Asia which has managed to survive and grow)

A few days back I read a BBC article which mentioned a WHO warning to governments around the world of the inevitability of a worldwide pandemic of Black Death proportions. A 6-month disruption to the global airline network could wreck havoc to the global economy, with almost certain either kill off or set back civil aviation as the fastest mean (and potentially most dangerous) mean of transportation.


What I'm trying to say is that I agree with most people in this thread, that Jet A-1 prices will go up gradually but I don't think it constitutes the single largest threat. Far from that. To enjoy our Boeing and Airbus rides indefinitely, we need to tackle security, alternative fuel technologies for the sake of the air we breath, and a mechanism of quickly containing regions in the event of a serious epidemic.
 
User avatar
northstardc4m
Posts: 3472
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2000 11:23 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 11:15 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 77):
Quoting NorthStarDC4M (Reply 73):
The list is endless... Kerosene is still cheap is all. Airplanes ain't going anywhere.

Oddly enough, the cost is not that critical for longer range aircraft. It is energy density that is the key - a combination of relative density and specific heat of combustion. Hydrogen is great for heat, but bad on density. A lump of petroleum coke gets you really good energy per unit volume, but is really difficult to burn in a turbine! Smile Big grin
Equally oddly enough, fixing coal so that its products will burn in gas turbines is one path to greater energy efficiency - provided that processing the coal to a suitable fuel is not even more energy consuming.

Coal Gas/Liquified Coal Products are yet another technology that is coming into economic pricing. And they have a nice advantage... coal gas burns CLEANER than LNP. Of course making it is another issue... and the left overs have to go somewhere though they are less many times toxic than alot of the leftovers of the oil business. And we can always just put them back into the mines they came out of. Also you can turn coal into synthetic gasoline and diesel... the South Africans did it for years. Though getting it to Kerosene weight is probably not feasible alas...

There is also alot of coal left that is economically feasible to extract. Oil reserves are becoming more expensive, though ironically global warming may make large sub arctic reserves economically viable sooner than expected. So this is all going to be an energy shell game. Odds are there is also at LEAST 1 trillion bl of crude in Canada, Alaska, Russia (Siberian geology is ripe for oil, probably more than the entire Arabian/Persian reserves, not including what is discovered...) and under the Arctic Ocean that is undiscovered... there are known reserves in Northern Canada in the range of 60bbl that has been sitting unused since the 60s when CANOL was abandoned.

And as ive said in other threads, there are nuclear technologies becoming viable that will hopefully reduce carbon use for electrical generation.

Also someone said one of the main things holding back the tar sands in Alberta was water availability. While thats true, electrical costs are just as significant. There are currently studies in place about using reclaimed naval reactors from US submarines as a semi-mobile power source... we shall see!
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Mon Aug 27, 2007 11:42 pm

Quoting Wingnut767 (Reply 71):
Spoken like a true Al Gore robot. Stifle conversation and debate. The Science is settled. Now pay your carbon tax. Unlike you I actually posted links to scientific findings.

You assume that people who disagree with you are robots and then decry stifling conversation? Interesting. As for your "science", Planemaker already did a fine job debunking that, and I thank him for a more civil response than I have been able to muster.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 78):
Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 63):
I think that China and India will each represent a market on par with the US or EU

I think that will never happen.

Ok...allow me to backpedal a bit. I should have said "at best" these markets could rival the EU/US, and that would be decades away.
 
khobar
Posts: 1336
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 4:12 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:34 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 77):
I wonder which fields are being referred to here. The sources I can find (including the AAPG Explorer) suggest 1P reserves for recent Gulf fields get up to about 750 mmbo which is real nice, but not billions. And recently a few have had the initial recoverable reserves reduced on further appraisal.



Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 81):
That sounds about right...combined output from Thunder Horse, Atlantis, Shenzi, and Tahiti should be about 2-4 BBOE over their lifetime

Tahiti is said to be good for between 3 and 15 BBO.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...601087&sid=a2PzS4ei4n84&refer=home

Thunder Horse is said to hold about 1.5BBO
Atlantis is about 635MBO
Shenzi - 250-500MBO

Food for thought: "Exxon Mobil, Chevron and other companies are using new technology to suck oil out of wells more efficiently, inspiring Cambridge Energy Research Associates to recently raise its estimate of the world’s recoverable oil reserves to 4.8 trillion barrels from 3.3 trillion in 2000, the New York Times reports."

Interesting that as oil consumption has increased, so, too, have recoverable oil reserves.

Meanwhile, the USAF is shifting to synthetic aviation fuel around 2011.
 
Lumberton
Posts: 4176
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:34 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:40 am

Quoting Khobar (Reply 86):
Tahiti is said to be good for between 3 and 15 BBO.

Not Tahiti alone. This is from the bloomberg article:

Quote:
Tahiti
Chevron is building a platform for the $3.6 billion Tahiti field, which will have the deepest producing wells in the Gulf of Mexico when it begins operating in 2008. Tahiti holds an estimated 400 million to 500 million barrels and probably will pump the equivalent of 125,000 barrels a day.

It goes on to say:

Quote:
Jack, Tahiti and Kaskida are part of a layer of rocks between 24 million and 65 million years old that span thousands of square miles beneath the gulf and may hold 3 billion to 15 billion barrels of oil and gas, according to Chevron scientists.

Who names these things? Big grin
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:31 am

Quoting Khobar (Reply 86):
Interesting that as oil consumption has increased, so, too, have recoverable oil reserves.

Increasing recovery from existing reservoirs equates to producing from a given field longer. That doesn't directly address the problem of production falling short of demand...we need new, large reservoirs and the associated transport and refining infrastructure to do that. None of those necessary elements are coming into being as yet.

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 87):
Quote:
Jack, Tahiti and Kaskida are part of a layer of rocks between 24 million and 65 million years old that span thousands of square miles beneath the gulf and may hold 3 billion to 15 billion barrels of oil and gas, according to Chevron scientists.

That's the area I was referring to above (Baroque was understandably questioning it). I think much confusion stems from citing these estimates in "petroleum equivalent" volumes; the Gulf of Mexico fields are delivering more gas than oil (IIRC) so the actual oil reserves in these fields is considerably lower than the 3-15 billion bbl figure.
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:17 am

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 78):
As a result, the demand for internal travel in China/India to visit friends and family is tiny compared to that of the EU and specially that of the US.

Just out of interest, where did you get this "fact"? And, you do realize that, if only 10% of Chinese and Indians VFR... that number is still over 250-million people. Finally, if this low demand were even true... today, do you think that it isn't giong to grow apace with economic growth?

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 85):
As for your "science", Planemaker already did a fine job debunking that, and I thank him for a more civil response than I have been able to muster.

Believe me, I really had to "edit" my post!!! Big grin

I can understand true ignorance but dumb ignorance coupled with insulting arrogance is a bit too much to swallow!! I thought, considering his insults, that you were restrained!!

Quoting Flitemax (Reply 83):
To enjoy our Boeing and Airbus rides indefinitely, we need to tackle security



Quoting Iwok (Reply 82):
I expect that reducing our consumption is the best way to go

It seems that not too many people realize that just by reducing consumption and increasing efficiency... that we can travel a very long way towards energy security in the US!

The US, by a very comfortable margin, is the THIRD largest global oil producer... yet depends on imports for 60% of domestic crude consumption requirements.

Unfortunately, government is beholden to industry groups, on the one hand, and suffers from citizen selfishness and apathy on the other hand! Power, greed and selfishness... how sad!
 
ncelhr
Posts: 258
Joined: Tue Jul 04, 2006 10:53 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:56 am

Thanks to all participants for coming up with a really interesting read. Thanks for Airbuster to come up with the thread!

Quoting Iwok (Reply 82):
A POTENTIAL oil crisis could indeed do as you suspect for technology development. From what I have heard, the geared turbo fan, in conjunction with a recuperator could offer almost 15% reduction in fuel burn.

Alas, there seems to be not much trust in the industry re: P&W's claims regarding the geared turbofan. They might need to substanciate their claims before any manufacturer goes for it, but I must say that my personal feeling is that the design looks good.

Bleedless engines seem to be a good way forward, although everybody's waiting to see how Boeing's electric architecture will work out once the 787 flies.

Propfan (yes, this is another promising alternative) suffers from the public's (unfortunate) view that prop aircraft are a bygone thing. Furthermore they are noisy, and necessitate fitting them to the rear of the aircraft as opposed to under the wings, which introduces a whole lot of design limits & design stresses on the a/c - which goes against making an aircraft lighter by having lighter structures.

As with everything in aviation, there are so many variables and development is so costly, so expect things to go sloooooooowly until a revolution takes place. CFRP (Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic) is already a huge step forward so let's breathe a little before taking the next step.
 
khobar
Posts: 1336
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 4:12 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:02 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 87):
Not Tahiti alone. This is from the bloomberg article:

Thanks for the correction.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 88):
Increasing recovery from existing reservoirs equates to producing from a given field longer. That doesn't directly address the problem of production falling short of demand...we need new, large reservoirs and the associated transport and refining infrastructure to do that. None of those necessary elements are coming into being as yet.

Except production is not falling short of demand. Production of some types of oil are falling short of demand, but this has to do with changing demand by legislation rather than by market growth.
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:24 am

Quoting Khobar (Reply 91):
Except production is not falling short of demand. Production of some types of oil are falling short of demand, but this has to do with changing demand by legislation rather than by market growth.

Not falling behind, yet. That's the root of my concern - not that oil will run out, but rather that production will not meet future demand. Even disregarding peak oil theory, the projections of doubling the numbers of aircraft and passengers implies underlying economic growth to support that. It's not just finding the fuel for twice as many aircraft, it's finding the fuel to supply the economies that create a doubling of demand in aviation.

And don't discount the impact of "some types" of oil falling short of demand. That's important - as we run low on light sweet crude we are increasingly turning to heavier, sour crudes. That type of crude is harder to refine (requires more energy input), yields less fuel, and leaves greater volumes of residue (which in turn require yet more energy for handling and disposal).
 
mrocktor
Posts: 1391
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 12:57 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:57 am

Oil is not running out. Use of oil is not responsible for any significant environmental effect on the global scale.

The cost of oil is increasing because most of the oil producers are tyranical states (middle east, Russia, Venezuela) and because its exploitation is FORBIDDEN in many free countries due to environmentalist activism (screw people, SAVE ARCTIC MOSS!). Enviro-crazy activism against nuclear power and hydro power also contributes to the dependency on oil and coal.

The global warming farce is just a huge bandwagon that is incredibly convenient for politicians (golden plated excuse to meddle in everyone's life and get their hands on everyones' property) and driven by the same anti-capitalist core that was pushing for world communism. Unfortunately for them the USSR proved what actual communism really is like - but they found another way to attack the freedom they hate. Unprincipled scientists who can't see past the next research grant and a scaremongering, anti-capitalist media establishment round out the team.

The facts are that there is absolutely no risk we will run out of oil within 200 years, and that there is no risk we will significantly affect the planet's weather with our economic activity in the foreseeable future.

Ironically, the "solution" to both of these non-problems is to leave people alone. Left alone people naturally strive for wealth and wellbeing - which invariably means efficient use of resources and care for the environment. Just compare the pollution/GDP factors for the USA and China. This is NOT the result of envirionmental legislation - the trend was in place long before environmentalism became a significant political entity.

What all the "protective" legislation actually does is stall human development, meaning we are poorer that we could be - and therefore dirtier and more wasteful of resources.

With regard to aviation, not only is there absolutely no problem with what we are doing today, the only effect of restrictive legislation will be to make transportation more expensive, less available to the public and less attractive to the investor - which means it will develop slower. Politicians may very well enact by law the chrisis that will never happen otherwise - unless you actually believe we will discover anything new in energy generation and storage during the next 200 years.
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 4:50 am

Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 93):
The facts are that there is absolutely no risk we will run out of oil within 200 years,

"Absolutely no risk"? What in this world is as certain as that?

Actual fact: if new oil reservoirs are not discovered, we will certainly run out of economically usable oil. Until those new reservoirs are discovered and proven, your statement is based on nothing other than faith. pray 
 
tdscanuck
Posts: 8573
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:25 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:23 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 87):

Who names these things?

Depends on the company. It's normal to give a meaningless name to exploratory wells because the oil companies want to keep the physical location of the explorations secret for as long as they can.

Some of them seem to be random...with BP, I've seen Thunder Horse, Atlantis, Diamondback, Mad Dog, Holstein, etc. I think they're chosen by the exploration engineers.

Some companies use a theme...Murphy Oil was on a horse racing kick for a while and had Frontrunner, Run For The Roses, etc.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 92):
That's the root of my concern - not that oil will run out, but rather that production will not meet future demand.

That can't happen in a commodity market...the price will always fluctuate so that actual demand (the amount that people are willing to pay ffor) and supply are nearly even. I think you mean that the demand for cheap oil will exceed production...but that's pretty much always been true.

Tom.
 
isitsafenow
Posts: 3413
Joined: Sun Feb 01, 2004 9:22 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 5:24 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 94):
your statement is based on nothing other than faith.

No it isn't. He is as factual as can be in his post. We have oil...we are awash in it and there is
lots more where that came from but its deep and its thick.....but it's THERE...
safe  yes 
 
baron95
Posts: 1106
Joined: Thu May 25, 2006 10:19 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:15 am

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 89):
Just out of interest, where did you get this "fact"? And, you do realize that, if only 10% of Chinese and Indians VFR... that number is still over 250-million people. Finally, if this low demand were even true... today, do you think that it isn't giong to grow apace with economic growth?

I never claimed it as a "fact". But from my personal observation (from traveling 150-250K miles annually overseas) and my reading of multiple english and local language reports, the vast, vast, vast, vast majority of the Indian and Chinese populations are not mobile at all. I remember reading a report tha 9x% (I can't remember the value of X, but it was either a 7 and 8 or 9) of the asian population is born, lives and dies within a 25 km radius.

Yes, I fully expec a %t the Chinese/Indian population to become more mobile and be able to afford airtravel. It will be decades, if not a century or more before 10% of the Chinese or Indian population can afford domestic airtrave to visit friends and family. If you don't understand that the vast, vast, vast majority of the Chinese/Indian populations is completely destitute and has ZERO disposable income, you are spending too much time reading the overhypped headlines, and ignoring the fine print.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 89):
The US, by a very comfortable margin, is the THIRD largest global oil producer... yet depends on imports for 60% of domestic crude consumption requirements. Unfortunately, government is beholden to industry groups, on the one hand, and suffers from citizen selfishness and apathy on the other hand! Power, greed and selfishness... how sad!

Wow! Those are strong words. The fact that the US is both a big oil producer and a big oil importer means nothing more and nothing less that the US is a very open/competitive economy. The US is the largest automobile producer and also the largest importer. In our field of discussion, the largest aircraft mannufacturer and also the largest (most years) aircraft importer. We are the largest farmaceutical mannufacturer and also the largest importer. These are all top performing and competitive industry and the local production + imports creates a dynamic market place that greatly bennefits consumers, employees, etc. It gives our economi a lot of flexibility. E.g. if there is a recession and automobile buying takes a sudden dive, that dive is spread to Germany, Japan, Korea, etc... If there is a sudden increase in economic activity and oil consumption we have US and overseas suppliers to pump it up and avoid higher energy inflation.

I htink you should turn your strong words towards the price fixing cartels of the oil world, the nationalized fields and oil companies, the excessive ship taxation to pass oil through navigable cannals (Suez, Panama, etc), the eco-nazis that make it virtually impossible to build a new refinary in this country or explore oil is a desolate region with catchy names like National Wildlife Refurge - geez. We all travel a lot in this forum - has ANYONE of us been to the so called National Wildlife Refuge? Are we likely to ever go there? What percentage of the wild live population would be negativelly affected if we explored oil there? 0.1%?

Back on topic, I think tight energy/oil situations are GREAT for the world economy. We'll drop some of the BS of can't drill here, can't drill there, we'll find ways to extract more oil from known reserves and find new ones, we'll be able to justify more efficiency investments, we'll se a faster renewall rate of airliners, etc, etc, etc... All good things.

I don't find a single negative impact of oil going from $25 to $75 in the space of a few years. I drive very heavy V8-engine cars, and the impact on the fuel pump is about $100/month, while the average family income in the US is $4,000+ month. So we are talking about a 2.5% increase on average. In contrast, health care costs, insurance costs, education, etc have all gone up by double digits in the same period.

You don't see people writting about what aare we going to do when we run out of Doctors, Lawyers, Teachers, do you? We train some, we import some, we make them more productive, we outsource some of the work, we use technology, etc.

Same with oil. It is just another daily life cahllenge - no biggie. Anybody that predicts doom will be perpetually wrong. The problem will always be "next decade".
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:18 am

Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 93):
What all the "protective" legislation actually does is stall human development, meaning we are poorer that we could be - and therefore dirtier and more wasteful of resources.

Sorry, but that is just not true. Without legislation we would be drowing in pollution... think London in the 50s and 60s and LA in the 70s and 80s for just 2 very simple examples of many.
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:19 am

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 95):
That can't happen in a commodity market...the price will always fluctuate so that actual demand (the amount that people are willing to pay ffor) and supply are nearly even. I think you mean that the demand for cheap oil will exceed production...but that's pretty much always been true.

If we require that every post be overly exacting the whole of A.Net will become unreadable. Demand for oil is relatively inflexible (e.g. there is no immediately usable substitute for Jet-A1) so the price will rise rapidly in the event of even a tiny shortfall in production. If the price of orange juice is too high then demand is suppressed...people buy grapefruit juice instead...but if the price of oil is too high, the immediate effect is suppression of economic activity.

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 96):
No it isn't. He is as factual as can be in his post. We have oil...we are awash in it and there is
lots more where that came from but its deep and its thick.....but it's THERE...

Ditto my above...we can't be repeating every detail of our discussion in each post. Yes, there's plenty of oil - but that oil will be more expensive, will pump and refine at lower rates, and wiil be of relatively lesser net energy derived. We dismiss the consequences at our peril. airplane 

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