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scotron11
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BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 10:20 am

According to FT, BMI is delaying all TransAtlantic service for a year, due to huge problems at LHR.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20415313/from/ET/

SMB says there has been a "significant reduction" of transfer traffic at LHR due to all the disruptions of the past few months. He says even when BA moves to T5 in March, he still expects delays next summer.
 
AirNZ
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 11:40 am

Best news I've heard in a while!
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steeler83
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 12:11 pm

They intend to codeshare with UA and US for the time being, I read the article correctly...

60 million plus air travelers, and only what, 3 runways? I have seen some of the proposed plans for rebuilding LHR, and I think they're rather impressive. I can't get over the mess that that airport is in!

And I thought PHL was bad! Sheesh!!!
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antonovman
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 12:27 pm

I suppose the fact that they have no aircraft or pilots to fly these new US services has a lot to do with it. Its not only the LHR faults thats holding them back
 
scotron11
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:03 pm

Quoting Antonovman (Reply 3):

I suppose the fact that they have no aircraft or pilots to fly these new US services has a lot to do with it

My initial thought also.

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 2):

They intend to codeshare with UA and US for the time being, I read the article correctly.

Also nothing mentioned about LH having an option to buy him out.
 
kiwiandrew

RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:26 pm

If they are intending to codeshare with US does this suggest that US are looking at moving their CLT and PHL services to LHR ? US seem to be the only one of the big carriers from the US who have so far not even mentioned looking to move services to LHR ( or have I missed something )

it would seem strange for BD to bother with a codeshare on services out of LGW since to the best of my knowledge BD have no LGW operations at all .
 
jetdeltamsy
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:47 pm

Quoting Scotron11 (Thread starter):
BMI is delaying all TransAtlantic service for a year

Between Heathrow and the USA. They already fly from Manchester to the USA.
Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
 
sk736
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 4:00 pm

Typical bmi. They complain for years that they want to fly transatlantic from LHR, and when they finally get permission they're not ready for it.
 
UAL777UK
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 4:18 pm

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 2):
and only what, 3 runways

In fact its only Two.

I am surprised if not dissapointed by BMI. I had thought they would jump at the chance to start these flights across the pond, I for one wanted to see a Star carrier on the JFK route, assuming thats where they would fly to.
 
mainMAN
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 5:18 pm

Quoting SK736 (Reply 7):
Typical bmi. They complain for years that they want to fly transatlantic from LHR, and when they finally get permission they're not ready for it.

The article says that they're getting a couple of 330s next year, so I find this an odd decision. When T5 opens, surely that will leave T1 with bags of space, and aren't bmi staying there, as Heathrow East will become the Star Alliance Terminal?
 
flytuitravel
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 5:30 pm

I'm disapointed by this! by 2008 most of the airlines will have established themselves and they'll be no need for BD!
 
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OA260
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 5:35 pm

Quoting FlyTUITravel (Reply 10):
I'm disapointed by this! by 2008 most of the airlines will have established themselves and they'll be no need for BD!

Exactly I was looking forward to clocking up some miles ex LHR to the USA with BD and getting rid of those upgrade certs I can never use. How come other airlines can expand at LHR and BMI cant. They have been begging for LHR for years now.
 
antonovman
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 5:48 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 11):
How come other airlines can expand at LHR and BMI cant. They have been begging for LHR for years now.

I can see it now. They will eventually start up the US flights in about 2 years time, when they get round to it, run them for a year, and then drop them like the India flights they begged for.
They will then start whining that the likes of big bad BA "forced them" out of the market by selling the seats too cheap or some other lame excuse
 
7LBAC111
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 6:03 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 11):
How come other airlines can expand at LHR and BMI cant.

Great question, and certainly one BD's shareholders need to be asking. By the time BD get going, the competition will have established itself. BD will be nothing without this expansion, or SMBSRB conceding they need to work together to be succesful.

7L
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Humberside
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 6:49 pm

Bit of a surprise since this is SMB's dream
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ManchesterMAN
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 7:35 pm

Even though I'd love to fly BD to the USA from LHR next year I think this is a very prudent business decision. Heathrow is a mess and will become more so in March. I think it is very sensible to stand back and watch the other airlines suffer and then BD can start operations in 2009 when things have settled down in terms of terminal changes. Remember this is the UK we are talking about where nothing goes to plan and everything is over budget. How many people think T5 will actually open in March? Even if it does there will be problems. There will also be problems moving the *A carriers to T1. BD don't want to start operating an effective transit hub at such a crazy time. In the land of the blind the man with one eye is king. BD can sit back, watch and learn.

It also enables them to start LHR-USA flights with a bang with 5 aircraft. If they started in March 2008 they'd probably only have 1 A330 to play with. If you do these things you have to do them properly. That has been BD's problem for a long time and people have criticised them for doing things half heartedly. Now they have actually made a good business decision lets give them a break.
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cornish
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 7:36 pm

Frankly I think the reasons given in the article are somewhat far from the reality - but then thats par for the course in the world of airline spin these days.

There will certainly be some disrpution next summer as BA move across to T5, but bmi shouldn't really be too badly effected (certainly not the extent of postponing such so called "lucrative" services) given that they won't be moving from T1, which is, and will be, used for all their short and long haul services. That won't be changing, so why would the addition of extra transatlantic services be a problem, given that they'll take existing bmi slots anyway. I'm not sure any of their transfer traffic should suffer that much, and besides if they are relying on transfer traffic between London and the US to make it work then they really are going to be in trouble as a.) they don't have a great onward network for transfer purposes anyway (outside the UK at least) and b.) London-US is one of the biggest O&D markets going. You should be able to generate enough traffic from that alone - especially as a Star carrier, and the links with its US partners at the other end. Besides, as bmi will certainly not be a slot buyer at LHR, the launch of US services will come at the expense of existing services, making the transfer side of things even less lucrative given that in true bmi style they will no doubt remove the services that would generate transfer traffic in order to make space for the transtlantic operations  Yeah sure

Wait a year and the likes of DL and CO will have got themselves nicely established and BD will face a far tougher job to break into the market.

I think its fair to say that the real disuption that is delaying this is actually disruption within bmi, not LHR, due to the assimilation of the BMED operations, the lack of long haul aircraft and crews yet and the uncertainty regarding the ownership and future of bmi, given SK wants to sell its stake. That is more likely to be the disruption that bmi faces ahead.
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OA260
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 7:43 pm

Quoting 7LBAC111 (Reply 13):
SMBSRB conceding they need to work together to be succesful.



Quoting Antonovman (Reply 12):
drop them like the India flights they begged for.

Yes they dont have a good track record on keeping flights going. You couldnt 100% book 10 months in advance without a bit of hesitation as to if the route would still be there by the time you were due to fly.

I know there has been lots of talk about VS wanting to take over BMI but could it be a case of not wanting to compete against their future bosses??? Maybe an announcement within 12 months ??? Totally off the wall I know but thought Id throw it in the ring anyway !!!
 
flytuitravel
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 7:45 pm

Why don't they use the A319s to PHL, BOS, EWR, PDX, YHZ, YHT etc? Would this not be worthwhile?
 
cornish
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 24, 2007 7:46 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 17):
I know there has been lots of talk about VS wanting to take over BMI but could it be a case of not wanting to compete against their future bosses??? Maybe an announcement within 12 months ??? Totally off the wall I know but thought Id throw it in the ring anyway !!!

I think VS have more of an issue right now as to who will acquire SQ's 49% stake in them. SRB will have enough of a struggle trying to raise the finance from his empire to buy it back to worry about a bmi purchase.
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kaitak
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Sat Aug 25, 2007 1:47 am

1) What happens to the 330s already on order and presumably due for delivery next year? Is BD going to swap production slots with other carriers, or use these 330s to reopen LHR-BOM or reinstate 330s on MAN-IAD?

2) Isn't there a risk here that with "new" US carriers starting to LHR next year, many of the best new routes ex-LHR will be taken and by the time bmi gets started in 2009, it won't have much of a choice? Sure, there is a point to what is said above about holding back and letting other airlines suffer the hassle, but this hassle won't be confined to the new carriers either, so I'm not sure if there's much of a gain.

3) I had understood that as part of the deal with BA, some of the slots used by Bmed were being handed back to BA, in which case how many slots are now available to bmi as a result of this purchase? Enough to operate the Bmed fleet profitably? Exactly how much integration is needed?

Also, interesting rumour on another thread:
"The analysts are saying this delaying because of LHR issues is a smokescreen and they feel a tie up with another airline that has a US route structure maybe on the cards, hence they don't want to launch a large new network and have to stop them all if they are taken-over. Who knows if it is true or not, but that is the story doing the rounds".

Possibly VS/BD back on the cards and BD doesn't want to invest a large amount in case this comes to fruition? (In any case, even if this did happen, VS 346s/BD 332s would make a good fit - crew commonality, interchangeability between flights; 332s could probably operate some VS 346 routes more profitably?)

[Edited 2007-08-24 19:01:54]
 
N383PA
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Sat Aug 25, 2007 2:12 am

Quoting Cornish (Reply 16):
I think its fair to say that the real disuption that is delaying this is actually disruption within bmi, not LHR, due to the assimilation of the BMED operations, the lack of long haul aircraft and crews yet and the uncertainty regarding the ownership and future of bmi, given SK wants to sell its stake. That is more likely to be the disruption that bmi faces ahead.

I agree, I think BD is too busy to integrate BMED into there system before they are able to make the next step
flying transatlantic. At the end of the day, even when the US carriers have established themself, that will not harm
BD as they have a lot of slots these US carriers havent.

I dont think if they start in 2009 that the marked is gone for them, dont forget their are a lot of Star Alliance carriers flying
into LHR and that network is big.

So all together with the integration of BMED, the Star alliance carriers as feeder and the rather small impact of DL,CO and NW, I am sure they will fill there plans and make money.
 
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OA260
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Sat Aug 25, 2007 2:17 am

Quoting FlyTUITravel (Reply 18):
Why don't they use the A319s to PHL, BOS, EWR, PDX, YHZ, YHT etc? Would this not be worthwhile?

Seems to work for AC. BMI could use their DME config for these routes. The J seats on these a ample .
 
VS11
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Sat Aug 25, 2007 2:20 am

Quoting Cornish (Reply 19):
I think VS have more of an issue right now as to who will acquire SQ's 49% stake in them. SRB will have enough of a struggle trying to raise the finance from his empire to buy it back to worry about a bmi purchase.

Well, what if Branson offers Bishop SQ's stake in VS. It may incentivize him to merge.
 
kaitak
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Sat Aug 25, 2007 2:25 am

Re the "new" A332s recently ordered by BMI; are these actually new aircraft? I had assumed so, but have been informed on PPRUNE thread that none of them are actually new. Which is correct?
 
Humberside
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Sat Aug 25, 2007 2:37 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 20):
1) What happens to the 330s already on order and presumably due for delivery next year? Is BD going to swap production slots with other carriers, or use these 330s to reopen LHR-BOM or reinstate 330s on MAN-IAD?

To be used on Middle East flights - unclear if this will be on new flights or taking over BMed A320/A321 flights. Although what happens when these aircraft are needed on the US flights - go back to A320/A321's again or get more A330's?
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BCALBOY
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Sat Aug 25, 2007 2:44 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 11):
Exactly I was looking forward to clocking up some miles ex LHR to the USA with BD and getting rid of those upgrade certs I can never use. How come other airlines can expand at LHR and BMI cant. They have been begging for LHR for years now.

Apart from AA who are already incumbent @ LHR , I think I-m right in saying that nobody else has actually
announced any definate schedules out of LHR. There is pressure on CO to move asap as BA are moving IAH
to LHR and DL will be keen to get JFK to LHR asap but could we see the others follow BMI ?

Quoting Antonovman (Reply 3):
I suppose the fact that they have no aircraft or pilots to fly these new US services has a lot to do with it

I-m sure this has been a major practical factor to consider .

Quoting SK736 (Reply 7):
Typical bmi. They complain for years that they want to fly transatlantic from LHR, and when they finally get permission they're not ready for it.

The decision ,especially the timescale , was a surprise to most carriers and given planning lead times ,its not
unreasonable that BMI doesn-t want to make a hash of things by rusing into it.

With the US carriers most of the planned services are transfers from LGW , so they are not completely new services they are just moving resources. For BMI this is expansion by intoducing new flying.

I also think that the argument that they want to concentrate on the integration of BMED next summer is sensible and credible .

Quoting Cornish (Reply 16):
I think its fair to say that the real disuption that is delaying this is actually disruption within bmi, not LHR, due to the assimilation of the BMED operations, the lack of long haul aircraft and crews yet and the uncertainty regarding the ownership and future of bmi, given SK wants to sell its stake. That is more likely to be the disruption that bmi faces ahead.

Agree.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 20):
Isn't there a risk here that with "new" US carriers starting to LHR next year, many of the best new routes ex-LHR will be taken and by the time bmi gets started in 2009, it won't have much of a choice?

The point of Open Skies is that access to relevant carriers is not limited , so its not a case of the routes they would like having been taken already. OK some other carriers may steal a march on BMI , but if they provide better
timings/ customer service/in flight experience ( which if what I read here abt the US carrier is correct ) catching up and over-taking shouldn-t be too hard . In addition as some of the US carriers involved are part of *A , I presume
there will be agreement between the carriers as to who will do what in what timescale.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 20):
Also, interesting rumour on another thread:
"The analysts are saying this delaying because of LHR issues is a smokescreen and they feel a tie up with another airline that has a US route structure maybe on the cards, hence they don't want to launch a large new network and have to stop them all if they are taken-over. Who knows if it is true or not, but that is the story doing the rounds".

I guess this is a possibility.
 
bastew
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Sat Aug 25, 2007 6:19 am

Maybe they learned from their foray into the indian market when scores more flights were permitted between the UK and India. Up until then it had only been BA, AI and VS plying the route, their flights oversold day in day out. When the frequencies available more than tripled, BMI jumped on the wagon and began daily non-stop LHR-BOM flights. But at the same time, so did Jet and Sahara.

In the end, the BMI flights performed dismally. All of a sudden the market was saturated by capacity, the established carriers increased frequency and improved product and service to retain their passengers. bmi initially started cancelling flights due to poor loads before pulling the route altogether.

Perhaps, BMI is right in holding back on transatlantic flights instead of jumping on the bandwagon with DL/CO/US/NW and god knows who else, and to get a true understanding of what it is up against. And maybe sit back and find the best routes to exploit.
 
vega
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Sat Aug 25, 2007 6:48 am

Quoting Kiwiandrew (Reply 5):
If they are intending to codeshare with US does this suggest that US are looking at moving their CLT and PHL services to LHR ?

I believe US will most definitely transfer the PHL-LGW flight to LHR IF they get slots from BMI, which may be part of the US-BMI relationship and one key to the 1 year delay. CLT-LHR is likely the 2nd choice after PHL, because unlike the LGW route, PHL should be able to capture a large % of O&D Star Alliance members to connect with BMI at Heathrow. CLT, on the other hand, would likely still require significant lower yielding connecting traffic to support the flight loads. A positive for CLT, however, is that it has no competing services to London, whereas PHL does.
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steeler83
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Sun Aug 26, 2007 2:20 am

Quoting UAL777UK (Reply 8):
In fact its only Two.

What?!!  spit 

"Houston, we have a problem!"

Quoting UAL777UK (Reply 8):
I am surprised if not dissapointed by BMI. I had thought they would jump at the chance to start these flights across the pond, I for one wanted to see a Star carrier on the JFK route, assuming thats where they would fly to.

I am still skeptical about JFK service. AA, BA, and VS already operate this route multiple times daily, with 777 and 747 aircraft. I am not sure if VS flies 747s or some other aircraft like the A346. I just know that this route will become supremely saturated if it isn't already, and therefore will be difficult for any "new" airline to make any profit on. There is a lot of demand for JFK-LHR, but there is only so much to take up before saturation occurs.
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vv701
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Mon Aug 27, 2007 12:18 am

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 2):
60 million plus air travelers, and only what, 3 runways?

The 'plus' is a hefty 7.7 million to give a total of 67.7 million passengers. And the old 'third' runway is now designated 'Taxiway A'.

One factor that SMB admits is behind his decision to delay BD LHR trans-Atlantic services until 'at least 2009' is the BMED situation. But it is not simply a matter of integratint KJ into BD. As part of his takeover deal SMB had to sell KJ's LHR slots to BA. So as Open Skies comes to fruition next March BA will be sitting on a small pile (51) of slots to take advantage of the situation while BD will be looking to operate the current KJ services (or at least most of them) by utilising slots currently used for their least productive short haul flights. Purely from an LHR slot perspective this would not make it a good time to be looking for more slots to fly to the USA.

My opinion is that SMB is using the above situation to justifiably reinforce his recent public criticisms of BAA.

The challenge for BA is very different to that of BD. To keep their new slots they will have to use them. Although they have new short haul Airbus aircraft to be delivered in the coming months most (all?) of these are planned to replace their old 320 111 and 211s. So until the four 772s that they ordered early this year are delivered they will probably be mainly looking to increase productivity of their existing fleet. This will be helped by the completion of the 'J' cabin conversion programme on their 744 fleet later this year. But this programme will be followed by the 'J' 772 cabin conversions (which should be quicker than the 'Lo' to 'Mid J' 744 conversions) and then (hopefully) by the announcement of the new BA 'F' seats and cabin and then an 'F' class conversion programme.
 
BrianDromey
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Mon Aug 27, 2007 12:31 am

Quoting ManchesterMAN (Reply 15):
How many people think T5 will actually open in March? Even if it does there will be problems. There will also be problems moving the *A carriers to T1. BD don't want to start operating an effective transit hub at such a crazy time. In the land of the blind the man with one eye is king. BD can sit back, watch and learn.

Indeed. I think BD wil be chaotic enough with integrating BMED and the mess at T1/T2/T3 without adding further.

Quoting ManchesterMAN (Reply 15):
It also enables them to start LHR-USA flights with a bang with 5 aircraft.

Surley 7, non? The two A330s based at MAN also count, but, at present they will not be used for T/A operations.

Is there any chance that IAD will return from MAN, at least for 12 months untill BD/LHR is ready for T/A operations? Personally I think BD should have concentrated on MAN with the 4 A330s (one went to EK) and built up a nice little name for itself in the US, on the west coast, perhaps.

Brian.
 
steeler83
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Mon Aug 27, 2007 12:48 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 30):
And the old 'third' runway is now designated 'Taxiway A'.

My God! It looks like LHR needs help. I am building a background in planning, particularly in transportation planning, and it's apparent that I have a quantum interest in aviation. Would you suppose LHR could use me?  Wink

And the rest that you posted, is it any wonder why LHR is in the pickle it's in, not to mention the airlines as well...
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
Candid76
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Mon Aug 27, 2007 5:28 am

I think the jury is very much out on how this situation will develop:-

- Major changes to airports do have the potential to cause disruption, even with the best planning you can't guarantee that things will go smoothly and everything will work as it is designed to
- Open Skies, in my opinion, is a recipe for a bloodbath out of LHR, this is where we will really find out how well these LHR-focused carriers fare once the protection of Bermuda 2 has gone
- Signs are that the economic boom may be coming to an end just as the free for all at LHR starts

Might, just might, this begin to level the playing field a bit between LHR and other UK airports? I find the prospect of UK based airlines looking overseas, rather than the rest of the UK, rather worrying. I obviously hope that strategy, should it be followed, fails miserably. I think bmi may just have made a good call here.

Cornish, and others, what do you think?
 
StarGoldLHR
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 31, 2007 6:16 pm

Whats the possibility of Lufthansa buying SK's BMI stake

and

Lufthansa buying SQ's Virgin Stake...

Then BMI wouldnt need a US network.. VS and BMI would become Lufthansa UK and finally VS would join Star Alliance.

I dont think this would be such a bad business decision, and it gives Star Alliance a much greater presence on the UK-US market... something which would shake BA and also stop KLM/AF/DL in their tracks.

I have to be honest... I dont think Virgin Atlantic has a future in it's current state...

it's a niche operator with a small following, limited feed oppourtunity on a protected market and this year it's profits have tanked...

After Open Skies.. VS won't have any EU Feed partner (BMI will do their own thing), limited US Feed partners (US airlines will do their own thing), no Alliance network and be exposed to it's previously regulated market.. thats not got to be good.

Maybe SMB is on to something...

Another alternative is SMB looking to buy his SK stake in house and by announcing a delay in US services, reduces the price of the shares ?.. though this would seem a little small minded.


Finally whilst AF and DL have been making LHR pacts together, and all the other LGW operators are seeking a way in to LHR... it's only Lufthansa which has remained quiet in this little party... and as they already have a seat at the BMI table you have to wonder why they are so quiet ?
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Aisak
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Fri Aug 31, 2007 7:23 pm

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 34):
Whats the possibility of Lufthansa buying SK's BMI stake

When BA and AA tried to get ATI, they were forced to give up the equivalent of AA slots at LHR (13 slots). With BMI being the no.2 slot handler and LH being the no1 non-British carrier in number of slots, I don´t see the EC staying quiet about LH having 50% of BMI.
 
Humberside
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RE: BMI To Delay TransAtlantic By 1 Year

Sat Sep 01, 2007 3:13 am

Quoting Aisak (Reply 35):
When BA and AA tried to get ATI, they were forced to give up the equivalent of AA slots at LHR (13 slots). With BMI being the no.2 slot handler and LH being the no1 non-British carrier in number of slots, I don?t see the EC staying quiet about LH having 50% of BMI.

I think they would be wrong if they did intervene. It would create a stronger competitior to BA and I thought that was one of the ideas of the EU, to encourage and promote competition. LH/BD dont currently, and are very unlikely ever to have a dominant position at LHR
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