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Tristarsteve
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:50 pm

Quoting TKV (Reply 29):
Another issue: would the B783 not be ideal for the main BA European routes ??



Quoting LACA773 (Reply 46):
I see BA ordering 783/788s to replace their 763s they use on medium range flights {i.e., ATH, TLV, CAI etc..,)

The announced intention to order is to replace the 14 longhaul B767. No mention has been made of a replacement for the 7 shorthaul B767. In fact when the last A320 order was announced it was stated that this was to create a one type fleet for shorthaul. I anticipate that when the B767 and B757 leave European operations they will be replaced with A321, and chartered freighters for the cargo. BA already leases A300 freighters for ops inside Europe.
 
theginge
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:09 pm

I don't think BA will let political influence make it buy Airbus over Boeing, it never has done in the past and don't think it will now. They will buy aircraft based on what is best for BA, not anyone else.
 
Danny
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:00 pm

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 18):
But that seems like too many A380's for an airline that does more point to point than major hubs.

I always thought BA was a one congested hub airline - an ideal cadidate for an A380.
 
777236ER
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:09 pm

Quoting LACA773 (Reply 46):
I too thought BA wasn't comfortable going with an a/c still technically on the drawing boards especially considering what happened the year before when Airbus decided to start over from scratch.

They said they wouldn't be launch customer again after 777 EIS problems.

Quoting LACA773 (Reply 46):
The 783s would also be great for short haul high capacity flights when needed during high season to certain cities like we have seen before...

Boeing aren't planning on getting EASA certification for the 787-3, so BA won't be operating them.
 
EI321
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:31 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 53):
Quoting LACA773 (Reply 46):
I too thought BA wasn't comfortable going with an a/c still technically on the drawing boards especially considering what happened the year before when Airbus decided to start over from scratch.

They said they wouldn't be launch customer again after 777 EIS problems.

How do you define a launch customer? Fact is that both the 787 and A350 will be flying for a number of airlines before BA could take delivery of either, and fact is that neither has even flown yet.

As for the 748i and A380, they would be only the second airline to operate the 748i (does that make them a launch customer?), and the A380 has not entered service yet either.

As for whether they will order the 787 or A350, again the facts are that neither of these aircraft fits perfectly into their existing fleet size wise. If we look at the 14 767's that need to be replaced, the 787 is better sized. If we look at the 43 777's that need to be replaced, the A350 is better sized.
 
Skidmarque
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:43 pm

Oh Gawd, do we really need another 'What's BA going to order thread ?' ?
Zzzzzzzzz
 
EI321
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:45 pm

Quoting SkidMarque (Reply 55):
Oh Gawd, do we really need another 'What's BA going to order thread ?' ?
Zzzzzzzzz

If ya dont like the music, dont come to the party. Theres plenty of other threads on this site  Wink
 
globeex
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:49 pm

Well, I'll give it a shot.

Either:
A350 800/900: 70-90 incl. Options (replacement of 763 and 772 + expansion)
A350 1000: 35-45 incl. Options (to replace 772 and most importantly 744s + expansion)
A380: 20-35 incl. Options (Replacement of 744s and Expansion)

OR:
A350 800/900: 80-100 incl. Options (replacement of 763 and 772 + expansion)
748: 30-40 including Options (744s replacement + expansion)
A380: 15-30 including Options (744s replacement + expansion)

I could also see another 15-30 A320s in any case.....
We'll see what comes out.
For some reason I don't expect a 787 order, unless Boeing will finally bring out the 787-1000. In that case you could take the second bet and replace all A50s by 787. But in case the order really is already firmed up, that seems unlikely to me.


GlobeEX
 
Norcal773
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:54 pm

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 4):
(The last time a real insider was musing about an order - it was an LH order - he was soon banned from this forum.)

What? Udo worked for LH?  duck 
 
EI321
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:54 pm

Quoting GlobeEx (Reply 57):
But in case the order really is already firmed up, that seems unlikely

This is an interesting point. If the order has already been firmed up, there wont be any 787-10 order, and IMO the -10 is the best thing the 787 has going for it here. In all honesty, given the current 787 issues, I cant see the -10 being launched until at least next summer.
 
globeex
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:59 pm

Quoting TristarSteve (Reply 50):
The announced intention to order is to replace the 14 longhaul B767. No mention has been made of a replacement for the 7 shorthaul B767

If I'm not mistaken, BA has 7 763 leased out to Qantas, right? What type are these 763ER or normal 763?

Does anyone else see the possibilty of an order for ERJ 170s as they are also trying to expand in LCY? Would be the only real substitution for their Avros. So maybe 20-30 ERJs incl. options?

GlobeEx

[Edited 2007-08-27 14:02:08]
 
EI321
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:11 pm

Quoting GlobeEx (Reply 60):
Quoting TristarSteve (Reply 50):
The announced intention to order is to replace the 14 longhaul B767. No mention has been made of a replacement for the 7 shorthaul B767

If I'm not mistaken, BA has 7 763 leased out to Qantas, right? What type are these 763ER or normal 763?

So haw many 767's are actually flying in the BA l/h fleet?
 
globeex
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:20 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 61):
So haw many 767's are actually flying in the BA l/h fleet?

I think 14 (could somebody verify?)
AND not all 763 at BA do l/h. Often used to other high-dense Destinations, like FRA, CDG. Regular to ATH etc.

GlobeEx

[Edited 2007-08-27 14:22:32]
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:26 pm

For what it is worth...

I do not believe 787 availability is an issue. BA just rebuilt the interior of their 767-300ER fleet with the expectation they will remain in service until the mid-2010s. If it was an issue, BA would have ordered the A330-200 already and not taken additional 777-200ERs (especially if they have exercised their options).

The key to this order may very well fall along three lines:

  • How long can BA effectively operate their 767-300ERs.
  • How long can BA effectively operate their 747-400s.
  • How does BA expect their traffic patterns worldwide to grow and shrink?

The best bet Airbus taking it all is that BA can keep their 767s and 747s effectively in service through 2020 and they expect traffic to fall on about half of their long-haul network and grow on the other half, as well as traffic on their medium-haul network to grow very strong. That way, BA can wait for the A350-800 and will have the extra traffic to justify the greater space. And for the half of their long-haul network where traffic falls, they can downgauge 744s to A3510s and for the half that rises, they can upgauge 744s to A388s.

Boeing has an easier time. The 787-8 and 787-9 would allow BA to replace their 767-300ER fleet with similar capacity as well as offering growth options, so if traffic doesn't jump across the board, BA isn't flying empty seats or has to cut fares to stimulate demand. If long-haul traffic stays stable or grows across the board, but not at a huge jump, then the 747-8I does the same in relation to BA's 744 fleet. The only "weakness" is the 777-200ER fleet, in that the 787-10 won't be quite as good as the 777-200ER in terms of max payload and range, but it will be much more efficient to operate, which is a plus.

As such, my "money" is on a 787 and 747-8I order initially. I do believe BA will operate the A388 (probably a dozen or two), but will place that order a bit later. BA may also decide on the A350-900 at that time if the 787-10 does not meet BA's needs as a 777-200ER replacement.
 
tcxdegsy
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:27 pm

I'm not as clued-up as some on here, so apologies if I ignore some of the more obvious comments and compelling arguments made. I personally agree with a lot that VV701 has said. However, there are a couple of things that keep jumping into my mind that I want to throw into the ring:

1) With LHR being more and more congested, and BA looking to launch European based routes, then surely there's a good case for the A380 to help with the throughput of passengers per slot, especially on high-frequency routes, such as JFK?

2) By using the A380 in a high-passenger configuration, this could allow BA to use it on a couple of the LHR-JFK flights per day, cut 1-2 flights per day and still carry the same number of passengers. Forgive me if the maths doesn't add up, but I'm thinking purely hypothetically. This would then release 1-2 slots for other/new routes, and would also release 1-2 aircraft for either these new routes or other routes, releasing 757's for their European-based idea. Of course, the A380 would not be used solely for JFK, but I hope you get my line of thought.

3) With everything else being equal, it's ongoing costs that could be the deciding factor for an airline such as BA who are very focussed on operating costs and margins. Therefore, surely crew costs could be something to consider too? BA are always keeping an eye on staffing and crew costs, and I'm sure they will think about ongoing crew costs, if one a/c option has a higher crew requirement that would push up staff to pax cost. Any thoughts?

4) Someone mentioned possible political pressure for BA to consider Airbus for pure UK Economical reason, and I personally can't see BA ever bowing to political pressure, when it's a PLC and proud of it. The bottom line is paramount to BA, not what the Government of the day want.

There, that's my opinion on some wider points. I'm yet to be convinced that BA will place a firm order for the A380 before any airline has actually got one in active service, and for that reason, I think they will Option it only
 
TKV
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:30 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 53):
Boeing aren't planning on getting EASA certification for the 787-3, so BA won't be operating them.

As far I understand, Boeing had simply decided not to seek the B773 EASA certification, due to its high cost, as long no orders were forthcoming from the EU. If BA issues an order, there would be plenty of time to get it !

Quoting EI321 (Reply 54):
As for the 748i and A380, they would be only the second airline to operate the 748i (does that make them a launch customer?), and the A380 has not entered service yet either

I would say that BA's resistance again "launches" would apply against really new developments, as the A350 is, but not against the A380, given its advanced stage, nor against the B748i, already ordered not only by LH but by many other in its cargo version, to be delivered much earlier and last not least, because it is a derivative of a model they know so well, and neither the B787, also because of its advanced stage.

By the way: could it be that BA is waiting, before issuing formal orders, for the first flight of the B787 ??

TKV
 
EI321
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:33 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 63):
The best bet Airbus taking it all is that BA can keep their 767s and 747s effectively in service through 2020 and they expect traffic to fall on about half of their long-haul network and grow on the other half, as well as traffic on their medium-haul network to grow very strong. That way, BA can wait for the A350-800 and will have the extra traffic to justify the greater space. And for the half of their long-haul network where traffic falls, they can downgauge 744s to A3510s and for the half that rises, they can upgauge 744s to A388s.

One of the flight int articles on the issue stated that the airline would replace the 767's and 20 oldest 747s from 2014 onwards. If this is true, then there is no real problem with the delivery times of the 787, A350-800/900, 748I or A380.
 
ZKSUJ
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:33 pm

I'm backing a 787/748 order. BA to date seem to prefer Boeing on their long haul aircraft. I hope they do order the 748i, or this could well spell the near end for the 747 passenger family line, what a sad day that would be
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:37 pm

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 39):
This is the most interesting aspect of this thread. Will Boeing accommodate a (somewhat) loyal customer to keep them in the Boeing fold?

If BA is serious about taking the 787, Boeing will have made plans to accommodate them. If BA is just "considering it" and continues to play Boeing and Airbus off against each other, then BA might be in a bind to get early deliveries.

But then, could Airbus be stretching themselves to thin? They claim their production rate will be 13 a month, but are they being overly optimistic about when they'll hit that point? If Airbus is selling delivery slots under the assumption they'll hit 13 a month very early in the plan, and they hit production snags...

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 44):
I thought Mr. Walsh said in no uncertain terms that the wide body order would not be split and would go to only one manufacturer. Has he said something to the contrary since then?

BA will make more then one widebody order in their future. They could choose only the 787 and 747-8I in this order, but that in no way makes Mr. Walsh a liar if in six months or a year BA places a new widebody order for the A388 and/or A350.

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 53):
Boeing aren't planning on getting EASA certification for the 787-3, so BA won't be operating them.

If BA - or any EU operator - wants the 787-3, Boeing will certify it before EASA.
 
theginge
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:42 pm

Quoting TCXDegsy (Reply 64):
By using the A380 in a high-passenger configuration, this could allow BA to use it on a couple of the LHR-JFK flights per day, cut 1-2 flights per day and still carry the same number of passengers. Forgive me if the maths doesn't add up, but I'm thinking purely hypothetically. This would then release 1-2 slots for other/new routes, and would also release 1-2 aircraft for either these new routes or other route

I don;t think BA would cut JFK frequencies even if they used the A380 as that is one of the reasons they have so many flights a day is to offer the business traveller flexibility in when they fly.
 
globeex
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:44 pm

Since it is BA acutally a 787 order seems more likely than a A350 order. However the JFK route could also become a reason for a 350 order, if the 787-1000 isn't launched.
At the moment a big amount of the LHR-JFK flights is handled with the 772. Having only 787-9 at the bottom end and 748 being the smallest step up the would have no choice than going with pure 748 Operation for the LHR-JFK route, as the quite significant downgrade from a 772 to a 787-9 seems pretty unlikely IMHO. And I can't see BA sacrificing 1 or to LHR-JFK flights, just because they upgraded everything to an 748.

Quoting TCXDegsy (Reply 64):
1) With LHR being more and more congested, and BA looking to launch European based routes, then surely there's a good case for the A380 to help with the throughput of passengers per slot, especially on high-frequency routes, such as JFK?

I also don't see BA ordering the A380 for that route. Maybe one or two flights a day, but not more.

GlobeEx
 
Tristarsteve
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:46 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 61):
So haw many 767's are actually flying in the BA l/h fleet?

BA has 21 identical B767-300ER with RB211 engines.
14 of these have a long haul cabin, and 7 have a short haul cabin.
The initial BA statement said they would replace 14 B767.
This assumes the long haul fleet. There is no announced plan to
replace the 7 short haul aircraft.
 
Tom12
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 10:08 pm

Quoting Da man (Reply 40):
but I don't think that the re-sale value

What about the possibility of leasing a few of 767's? Would make more sense than buying them when resale prices would be hit.


Just a thought.


Would be good to get a few 767's in the fleet to tide them over untill the 787 came along.



Tom
 
theginge
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 10:42 pm

Most JFK flights are operated by the 747-400. I believe that the 777 only operates one or two out of the eight or so flights a day.
 
777236ER
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 10:44 pm

Quoting TKV (Reply 65):

As far I understand, Boeing had simply decided not to seek the B773 EASA certification, due to its high cost, as long no orders were forthcoming from the EU. If BA issues an order, there would be plenty of time to get it !



Quoting Stitch (Reply 68):

If BA - or any EU operator - wants the 787-3, Boeing will certify it before EASA.

Boeing just wasted money by withdrawing the EASA request if there was actual interest from EU airlines in the 787-3. BA won't buy it, simply because it has no place in their fleet.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 10:44 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 53):
They said they wouldn't be launch customer again after 777 EIS problems.

They can't be the launch customer...all versions of the 787 and 747 have launch customers already.

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 53):

Boeing aren't planning on getting EASA certification for the 787-3, so BA won't be operating them.



Quoting TKV (Reply 65):
As far I understand, Boeing had simply decided not to seek the B773 EASA certification, due to its high cost, as long no orders were forthcoming from the EU. If BA issues an order, there would be plenty of time to get it !

TKV has it right. Boeing initially applied for EASA certification on the 787-3 but pulled the application after nobody in Europe ordered the aircraft (why spend money you don't need to?)...they can always get it if they need it.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 54):
As for the 748i and A380, they would be only the second airline to operate the 748i (does that make them a launch customer?)

Second airline isn't a launch customer unless they're getting the first one with a different set of engines (this is how BA was a launch customer on the 777 even though the first 777 went to United). Since the 747-8i only has one engine, LH is the only launch customer.

Tom.
 
globeex
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 11:02 pm

Quoting Theginge (Reply 73):
Most JFK flights are operated by the 747-400. I believe that the 777 only operates one or two out of the eight or so flights a day.

Okay, thats right. Just checked. About 2 flights to NYC a day are 772. But still, there are other destinations like Bostons with three daily 772. Can't see making them all 748 or downgrading to 787. 350-900/1000(maybe) seem to be better solutions for them.
To me it seems, that if they would choose the A350 over the 787/748 they would be a little bit more flexible with their l/h network / plans or at least its easier to stick closer to their current stategie/ scheduled flights. But of course, it can change!

GlobeEx
 
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SEPilot
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 11:08 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
btw many times insider info proved wrong here on a.net. Being part of a x0.000 company doesn´t give much credibility. You have to be in the DMU / project group to know were things are heading & even then final decision are taken at board level, rational advises are sometimes ignored in the big game of (personal) interests.

Good point; the only real insiders are the board members or corporate officers. I have been a member of many organizations, and in most of them very few people know any more than an outsider about what is REALLY happening, especially about such important decisions as which aircraft will be ordered.

Quoting TKV (Reply 19):
Even if denied, there is labor-political pressure on BA to do so, to avoid the danger that Airbus will take out from the UK scope components for the A350, as labor-political consideration makes impossible to reduce further supplies from France and Germany.

BA has a long history of ignoring political pressure; during the time when it WAS government owned and the British government was financially involved with Airbus and RR there was intense pressure to buy the A300; yet they bought the 757 instead. I think BA will buy whatever aircraft they feel will best meet their needs.
 
laca773
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 11:16 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 53):

Boeing aren't planning on getting EASA certification for the 787-3, so BA won't be operating them.

Thanks for the information. I learned something new.

BTW, when is this "firmed up" order to be announced?

LACA773
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 11:35 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 74):
Boeing just wasted money by withdrawing the EASA request if there was actual interest from EU airlines in the 787-3. BA won't buy it, simply because it has no place in their fleet.

Fair enough, but many people are making the incorrect connection that because Boeing has withdrawn EASA certification for the 787-3, Boeing will therefore refuse to sell it to EU customers even if there is demand. I interpreted your comment that way. If I was mistaken, my apologies.
 
ebj1248650
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 11:56 pm

Quoting Da man (Reply 40):
Good point ... I would imagine BA could get some within a quicker timeframe than 772s not withstanding their slot reservations for the 4 options they carry that might have just been exercised (see my above post, quoted below). Any new 763s ordered would be nice commonality wise, but I don't think that the re-sale value would be that good considering they would most likely have RB211s and they would be disposed of when the market was ripe with used 767s that were recently replaced with 787s and possibly A330s and A350s.

As much demand as there is for used passenger wide bodies that can be converted to freighters, I don't see BA having too much of a problem disposing of these airplanes when the time comes. On the other hand, if they were to purchase new 763s, I'm sure they'd likely keep them for some time to get their money's worth out of them.
 
WINGS
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:13 am

Quoting Insiderinfo (Thread starter):

Let's start the guessing game and see...who the really great predictors are on this website...plenty of bragging rights available after the plans are made official..for the closest guess

All that I know is that Airbus most likely has captured its first widebody order from BA. Or should I say double widebody?  Wink

Regards,
Wings
 
insiderinfo
Topic Author
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:42 am

A380 order for 5-10 frames is given...walsh has almost confirmed that on several interviews....no prizes for that assumption...but it's still not in service...god only knows what success or challenges it will bring to airlines....there's a wait and see approach...slot's are hardly an issue...all the big order for the super jumbo are likely in for my lifetime...small ones here and there shouldn't create too many slot issues...nothing like the 787...and there's the pretty high likelyhood of cancellations too...almost certainly VS...

expect the a380 order a LTTLE later than we may like...

it's the rest that's up in the air....

starting to replace 57...744's....13 763's followed by 8 more....and the early772's..
 
NYC777
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:43 am

With all those who are saying that BA is going to order this and that. We should remember that BA themselves said they will be choosing among the 787, 748I, A350, and the A380. No 777 and no A330. We should keep the discussion centered around those four types though the 77W would look grat in BA colors!
 
globeex
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:52 am

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 82):
A380 order for 5-10 frames is given...walsh has almost confirmed that on several interviews

If BA orders A380 we will see at least 10+ as he actually said, that they would need at least 12 airframes to operate that typ efficently.

GlobeEx
 
vv701
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:56 am

Quoting GlobeEx (Reply 60):
If I'm not mistaken, BA has 7 763 leased out to Qantas, right?

Correct. But interestingly a current Air Britain publication listing worldwide airline fleets specifically states that the 763s leased by QF from BA will never be returned to BA. Air Britain is usually a well informed organisation but where they obtained this information I do not know.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 77):
BA has a long history of ignoring political pressure; during the time when it WAS government owned and the British government was financially involved

In July 1979 (almost a decade before BA was privatised) the then British Government stated that there would be no further government interference in BA's decision making process. This statement was made because with decades of previous disastrous interference with first BEA and BOAC and then BA policies it would not have been possible for privatisation to go ahead successfully without the government first establishing a good record of non-interference.

Since July 1979 all BA's decisions have been made in the interests of initially BA's future shareholders and since privatisation their actual shareholders. Since then government civil aviation policies have sometimes favoured BA and at other times favoured other airlines.

As an example in the early 1990s the British government renegotiated the Bermuda 2 agreement signed with the US in 1979. This renegotiation allowed VS to operate to the USA out of LHR in direct competition with BA (which was not possible under the terms of the then existing agreement). On the other hand both BA and VS wanted to open the LHR-DEN route but BA was given preference over VS.

Inevitably the British government has been faced with having to make decisions that inevitably favour a specific British airline. This has often happened when signing new bilateral agreements with other governments. Here I gain the impression that successive British governments have alternately made decisions that favoured and then did not favour BA. Although this is only my personal impression it does explain how the UK has ended up with three British airlines, BA, BD and VS using LHR as their main hub.

When I look around the world the only airport that I have so far determined comes anywhere near the locally highly competitive LHR situation is ORD. Here two (not three) airlines, AA and UA, operate a hub. Nearly all other major hubs are totally dominated by one airline. It usually operates around two-thirds or even three-quarters of all the slots at that hub. Apart from ORD the only other major airport I can think of where this is not the case is the rather special case of NRT.

The July 1979 policy has since been further developed. Rather than putting British airlines first as once was the case, the policy is now to put the British consumer and the British economy first. This policy, again publicly stated, has been partly responsible for developing an attitude amongst some A-netters that BA should be called 'London Airways'. This is because the British government has encouraged the establishment of air routes from provincial British airports to hubs other than LHR and LGW such as AMS and CDG that benefit both the British consumer and economy (but not the British airline industry). These services, operated from the hubs of airlines like KL, LH and AF have been economically difficult for airlines like BA and BD hubbed at LHR to compete against.

The same British government policy is also why we have seen strong growth in flights by American airlines from their US hubs to British provincial airports. Here the British government again publicly stated several years ago that it would look favourably on applications from North American airlines requesting fifth freedom rights from British provincial airports for onward flights into Europe and beyond. In itself this statement showed why it is a good thing that the government now keeps its nose right out of BA's decision making process. The government's perception was that offering fifth freedom rights like this would encourage North American airlines to serve British provincial airports and also increase the number of services from them into continental Europe and beyond. It has, of course, lamentably failed to do the latter.
 
KrisYUL
Posts: 100
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:25 am

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:58 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 81):
All that I know is that Airbus most likely has captured its first widebody order from BA. Or should I say double widebody? Wink

Regards,
Wings

Hope so ! That would make PM's day for sure.
 
Geo772
Posts: 439
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 11:40 pm

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:02 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 83):
With all those who are saying that BA is going to order this and that. We should remember that BA themselves said they will be choosing among the 787, 748I, A350, and the A380. No 777 and no A330. We should keep the discussion centered around those four types though the 77W would look grat in BA colors!

Actually they said the only aircraft that they would NOT consider was the A340. Everything else would be considered.

Also remember that the first part of the order is for the replacement of 14 763ERs and 20 744s. The shorthaul 763s are not being looked at at this time. However I suspect that both Boeing and Airbus will have put together very comprehensive packages for both the bare minimum as well as the entire long term fleet replacement.
I would expect to see the announcement sometime in the middle of Spetember, possibly around the time that the 'keys' to T5 are handed over.
 
Ken777
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:07 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 3):
Could you elaborate this statement ?? Thanks  

Sorry for the delay - I've been away from a computer too long!

On the 787s, I would be very surprised if BA didn't put down some refundable deposits to hold slots when it first came out and I doubt if Boeing would tell them they've lost the slots and refund the deposits. Since the slot deposits seem to be one of Boeing's little secrets I give BA the benefit of the doubt - and believe that there are some slots that can be filled over the years - even if they are not in the first year or so.

BA will also have the benefit of the 787 flying for a few years before their first 787s would be delivered - something that seems to be important to them. If BA sis really looking for a 767 replacement then the 787 is the closest option for them.

On the 748i series, my bet is that Boeing presented the plane and launch pricing well before LH signed their order. Boeing would be stupid to jack the price up now that LH has signed. The 748i would therefore be at a very good price while Airbus really needs to start getting some good margins on their 380s. Airbus might be willing to make some deep cuts (and increase the number of sales required for break even), but I think Boeing has a price advantage.

Then there is the issue of BA saying that the 748i is the plane that they asked Boeing to build. Has that changed?

On the LHR congestion side, how many slots does BA burn with a plane smaller than a 320? I've seen some prop jobs at the gate in the past. If BA hits a real slot crunch they can utilize the old "milk run" approach, even if it is one stop. Each conversion to a one stop commuter run adds 2 slots for larger planes. (I actually enjoyed my last milk run - it was on a DC-3!

These are the main reason why I'll go with 2 cents on a Boeing order - but no higher. I have no doubt that Airbus has worked very hard to get part of this order and could well bring in a small 380 order later, but I'll go with Boeing for this "massive" bet of mine.  Smile
 
virtual
Posts: 26
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2007 1:14 am

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:14 am

Im trying to work out how the A350 Family will compare with Boeing products, based on published 3-class seating capacity:

A350-800 (270) = B787-9
A350-900 (314) = B777-200
A350-1000 (350) = B777-300

Is this correct? Please tell me if I am wrong.

So if there is no A350 family competitor for the B787-8, and it's the B787-8 which is closest in capacity to the B763 which BA wish to replace as part of this forthcoming order, how could BA replace the B763s if not with a B787-8 order?

Also, it seems like a huge capacity gap between A350-1000 with 350 seats and A380-800 with 525 seats. If airlines need an aircraft between that size, I imagine the B748 is the only option?

And in terms of replacing the earliest-built B744s, if the B77W is not being considered, BA can only downgrade (in terms of capacity) to A350-100, or upgrade to B748 or A380 - or a mixture?
 
TKV
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:59 pm

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:19 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 63):
For what it is worth...

I agree with your comprehensive post, with only one comments:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 63):
The 787-8 and 787-9 would allow BA to replace their 767-300ER fleet with similar capacity as well as offering growth options
---------------------------
If long-haul traffic stays stable or grows across the board, but not at a huge jump, then the 747-8I does the same in relation to BA's 744 fleet.

I do not think that the main function of the B787 will be to continue what the B767 are doing now. BA, as any other similar airline, must and will cater to the P2P market and many of the B787 will be used so, a task that the B767 is not able to perform for long ranges.
And this in turn must be considered when purchasing VLA's, especially the A380, within the scope of what you are stating regarding the development of this market.

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 74):
Boeing just wasted money by withdrawing the EASA request if there was actual interest from EU airlines in the 787-3. BA won't buy it, simply because it has no place in their fleet.

I do not think that they have wasted any substantial amount, could be a bit, but avoided the risk to pay a lot for a certification without orders. Any work invested would be used when refiling !
Some month ago they didn't see a order, but of course, BA can have changed their mind !

As for your last sentence, why you say it does not fit ?? All Europe and some North Africa is within its range, and it would provide a optimal solution where B739 or A321 would be too small, with a vastly better CASM !!

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 77):
BA has a long history of ignoring political pressure; during the time when it WAS government owned and the British government was financially involved with Airbus and RR there was intense pressure to buy the A300; yet they bought the 757 instead. I think BA will buy whatever aircraft they feel will best meet their needs

This is the same as already discussed regarding LH. Yes, they resist pressure when what is asked is clearly negative for their interests and needs, but if it cost little they comply with their government wishes, as to have good relations there is fundamental, especially for internationally operating companies. BA, between other, need government help to protect their interests against incursions of EK and alike !!

TKV
 
globeex
Posts: 265
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:33 pm

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:20 am

Quoting Virtual (Reply 89):
A350-800 (270) = B787-9
A350-900 (314) = B777-200
A350-1000 (350) = B777-300

About right. Although I think with the three compared the compared 350 type is always a little (little, little) bit bigger, but not sure about that.

Quoting Virtual (Reply 89):
Also, it seems like a huge capacity gap between A350-1000 with 350 seats and A380-800 with 525 seats. If airlines need an aircraft between that size, I imagine the B748 is the only option?

Its true, that the 748 is the only option in that size. However, there is no way, BA would put 525 seats into an A380.
On the other hand, they still have quite a big moment with the 744-772 but sure not as big.

GlobeEx

[Edited 2007-08-27 18:22:10]
 
bmacleod
Posts: 2990
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2001 3:10 am

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:20 am

My guess?

-748/773s to replace 744s
-787s to replace 767s

A380 order of 5 or 6 is likely, but not this year....

Quoting BAOPS777 (Reply 11):
BA will probably opt fot the A330 or A350

With BA's strong Boeing-only widebody history, what sense would this make?
 
Danny
Posts: 3753
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:20 am

Quoting Virtual (Reply 89):
BA wish to replace as part of this forthcoming order, how could BA replace the B763s if not with a B787-8 order?

BA operates only 14 767 with only a few of them flying long haul. This does not justify an additional type in the fleet in my opinion. The main workhorse of BA long haul fleet is 777 and Airbus has a better option for them in that segment.
 
globeex
Posts: 265
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:33 pm

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:26 am

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 92):
With BA's strong Boeing-only widebody history, what sense would this make?

Well, nice that you say "history" because that's what it is.... doesn't say that it could continue, we'll see.

Quoting Danny (Reply 93):
BA operates only 14 767 with only a few of them flying long haul. This does not justify an additional type in the fleet in my opinion. The main workhorse of BA long haul fleet is 777 and Airbus has a better option for them in that segment.

I do totally agree with you here. If they aren't to focused on the replacement of the 763 the Airbus portofolio would give them more fexibility in the future. Looking at LH, they won't replace their A300 with a similar sized plane, and I guess, BA will do the same. Some replaced by A321 and others by A350-800s (maybe  Wink)

GlobeEx
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27681
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:27 am

Quoting Virtual (Reply 89):
So if there is no A350 family competitor for the B787-8, and it's the B787-8 which is closest in capacity to the B763 which BA wish to replace as part of this forthcoming order, how could BA replace the B763s if not with a B787-8 order?

They can't. Essentially, they either have to hope traffic growth on the long-haul 767-300ER routes sees a sharp increase or they're going to watch yields erode as they discount to fill empty seats. This is why I think the 787-8 has the edge, especially since it is large enough over the 763ER to allow BA to return FIRST service while still keeping CW, WT+ and WT.

Quoting Virtual (Reply 89):
Also, it seems like a huge capacity gap between A350-1000 with 350 seats and A380-800 with 525 seats. If airlines need an aircraft between that size, I imagine the B748 is the only option?

Yes, but the way BA structures their four class (FIRST / CW / WT+ / WT) better lends itself to a 787-10/A359 and then the 748I as both better match existing 772ER and 744 capacities. If BA was hurting for seats in the middle of their fleet, they would probably have taken the 77W by now. BA has a number of cities that currently see 744 service that will not see A388 service. BA has to decide if they want to give up marketshare and go with the A350-1000 or maintain/improve marketshare and choose the 747-8I.

I believe there is a viable role for the A380-800 in BA's fleet of around a dozen planes. Remember, BA has been talking about [b]possibly abandoning/b] LHR-SYD, which would be the most obvious choice for the A388.

Quoting Virtual (Reply 89):
And in terms of replacing the earliest-built B744s, if the B77W is not being considered, BA can only downgrade (in terms of capacity) to A350-100, or upgrade to B748 or A380 - or a mixture?

Correct. Though they would be downgrading capacity if they chose te 77W, as well.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 27681
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:30 am

Quoting GlobeEx (Reply 94):
Looking at LH, they won't replace their A300 with a similar sized plane, and I guess, BA will do the same. Some replaced by A321 and others by A350-800s.  Wink

An A321-200 won't carry many folks on a ~5000nm mission...  Wink
 
globeex
Posts: 265
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:33 pm

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:37 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 96):
An A321-200 won't carry many folks on a ~5000nm mission...

Damn, if Airbus just would have proceeded with their test of winglets, they could have just put them on the A321  Wink.... just kiddin. I know that but a 350-800 can..... and as mentioned BA does use them often for intra-european routes. Apart from that I don't think one should to much overrate the position of 763s at BA for l/h. As far as I know, must of 763 l/h flights do operate from LGW, don't they? That already indicates their position for BA as a l/h-aircraft. If I'm wrong I apologise.

On the other side, I can't see how an LH 321 could do it to Pakistan. So LH will need to find a way to replace the A300 properly, and in case BA will order the 350. BA would find a way as well.

GlobeEx
 
virtual
Posts: 26
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2007 1:14 am

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:42 am

What is the likelihood of an all-Airbus order?

A350-800 and A350-900 to replace B763 and eventually B772.
A350-1000 and A380-800 to replace B747-400.

Any guesses?
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 20124
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:46 am

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 92):
With BA's strong Boeing-only widebody history, what sense would this make?

Many airlines had strong Boeing or MDD histories, but Airbus has still managed to sell over 7,000 planes to them. History should mean nothing to the majority of independent airlines.

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