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insiderinfo
Topic Author
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BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:24 am

Okay guy's BA's order is ready to go..initial orders will be placed in the coming months..

all the selling has been done...both internally and externally...and long haul fleet renewal has been sealed..anything missed...is missed..no further chances of change..

Let's start the guessing game and see...who the really great predictors are on this website...plenty of bragging rights available after the plans are made official..for the closest guess

i'm not re-posting my knowledge....that wouldn't be fair..
 
Ken777
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:46 am

I'll put  twocents  on the 787 & 748i. I think Airbus is fighting for this order hard enough to make it closer than originally anticipated.
 
TKV
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:46 am

Quoting Insiderinfo (Thread starter):
all the selling has been done...both internally and externally...and long haul fleet renewal has been sealed..anything missed...is missed..no further chances of change..

Then why they are not announcing their decisions ?? If all is sealed, this must include the prices and
other conditions, without which no decision would have been possible. So, if they are not more negotiations possible, for what they are waiting in the coming months ??

Quoting Insiderinfo (Thread starter):
i'm not re-posting my knowledge....that wouldn't be fair..

If you are not an insider (contrary to your username) it would be fair to let us know, because the guessing game was already played repeatedly and exhaustely on the Forum and would not bring anything new !

TKV
 
TKV
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:51 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 1):
I'll put on the 787 & 748i. I think Airbus is fighting for this order hard enough to make it closer than originally anticipated

Could you elaborate this statement ?? Thanks  Smile

TKV
 
gbfra
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:54 am

(The last time a real insider was musing about an order - it was an LH order - he was soon banned from this forum.)
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
da man
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:54 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 1):
Quoting Insiderinfo (Thread starter):
i'm not re-posting my knowledge....that wouldn't be fair..

If you are not an insider (contrary to your username) it would be fair to let us know, because the guessing game was already played repeatedly and exhaustely on the Forum and would not bring anything new !

I don't know, in another thread he offered information on BA and I called him on it saying that it might be considered proprietary, along with many other things he said about QF and some other a.net members which were factually wrong and proved wrong. The whole thread is worth the read: RE: Qantas 332 AKL-LAX From March 08 (by Insiderinfo Jul 13 2007 in Civil Aviation)

P.S. Mods, if you feel this doesn't belong, I apologize and whole-heartedly approve of your removal of this reply.
War Eagle!
 
trekster
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 3:55 am

I dont even know why you have posted.
If you know, then I very much doubt your employers would like you posting and starting discussions in a pubic forum that we all know are checked by major companies all the time!!

As Ken has stated, there has been major discussion on this subject since the annoucment was made that British Airwys were ordering new aircraft.
Where does the time go???
 
insiderinfo
Topic Author
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:23 am

Not sure why the automatic assumptions is that my employer is BA or of their subsidiaries....To set the book straight...i don't work for BA...

in fact any major airline needs the buy in and approval of no less then 50 suppliers before making fleet decisions...there's thousands out there who know the facts...i though you experts would know that.!

one reason nobody's talking..likely not many A.netters among them...and the rest probably take their non-disclosures more serious than me.

H
 
da man
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:27 am

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 7):
the rest probably take their non-disclosures more serious than me.

You do know that if you get caught, your job is as good as gone. Plus I would assume you would be blacklisted within the industry in the area you reside in.
War Eagle!
 
trekster
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:27 am

Where have both myself and the other posters stated you work for BA?

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 7):
and the rest probably take their non-disclosures more serious than me.

Well, id not like to be your boss then. Having signed a form stating not to disclose information, and then posting the above comment!!
Where does the time go???
 
gbfra
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:28 am

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 7):
in fact any major airline needs the buy in and approval of no less then 50 suppliers before making fleet decisions...there's thousands out there who know the facts...i though you experts would know that.!

Now I'm pretty sure that you are no insider...
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
BAOPS777
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:35 am

As a BA staff member this is the latest info flying around and for once everyone seems to be singing from the same song sheet.

OK 787 was desireble but due to the delivery dates unavailble intime to replace the 767 fleet a large order is unlikely BA will probably opt fot the A330 or A350

748i makes sense as existing flight crew on 744 would be able to operate them.

777 options will probably be firmed up. However whether that includes getting the 773 that is another thing entirely.

A380 it is not a question of if but how many the CEO has said on more than one occasion that he reckons BA will require 10 to 15 of them.

A340 Makes no sense due to the large 777 fleet and BA very happy with the exisiting 772.

The announcement is to be made in mid September. However with traffic figures out for August arounf the 5th this could be a good time to announce it.
 
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keesje
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:41 am

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 7):
the rest probably take their non-disclosures more serious than me.

Most people working in the industry know things that are not publicly known. I always avoided posting in threads that came to close to my job(s). Some times years after there are opportunities to insert some insider info.

btw many times insider info proved wrong here on a.net. Being part of a x0.000 company doesn´t give much credibility. You have to be in the DMU / project group to know were things are heading & even then final decision are taken at board level, rational advises are sometimes ignored in the big game of (personal) interests.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
dl767captain
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:56 am

My bet is a 787 order along with a 748 order. However i do believe they ordered a few A380's. But i think most of the order will be for the 787 and 748. Both these aircraft will serve the airline very well. We might even see a small 777 order to hold them until the 787 can arrive. Airbus probably faught very hard to get BA to order the A350, but since the A350 is more of a 777 replacement BA is probably planning on waiting until they see what happens with the 787-10 and see which 777's need to be replaced. I think an A350 order could come later but they will probably wait to see what type of plane it turns out to be. But my be is on a 787,748, and A380 order
 
da man
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:59 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 13):
We might even see a small 777 order to hold them until the 787 can arrive.

I'm betting the 4 777 UFOs (that put the 777 over 1000 orders) that were booked this week or was it last week was BA firming up its options from when they placed their order for 4 772s from earlier this year.
War Eagle!
 
TKV
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 5:04 am

Quoting Da man (Reply 5):

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 1):
Quoting Insiderinfo (Thread starter):
If you are not an insider (contrary to your username) it would be fair to let us know, because the guessing game was already played repeatedly and exhaustely on the Forum and would not bring anything new !

Only for the record, as it objectively does not matter !

This is again an unintentional misquote, due to the problem of the system that if a reply is not highlighted completely, including the author, the quote is assigned wrongly.

Here, instead as indicated above, it should have been:
""Quote=Insiderinfo (thread starter)----(I really do not know how the name Ken777 came in here !)
Quoting TKV (Reply 3)
i'm not re-posting my knowledge....that wouldn't be fair..
--- (this being said by Insiderinfo)

If you are not an insider (contrary to your username) it would be fair to let us know, because the guessing game was already played repeatedly and exhaustely on the Forum and would not bring anything new ! ------ (this being said by TKV)""

TKV
 
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keesje
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 5:20 am

Airbus was offering the A350-900R to BA (QF, EK and others). I think it will be hard for Boeing to match this with a 787-10ER/LR.

Maybe it will become something of a rational best of both worlds:

Orders / options /MOUs for

- 40-80 Boeing 787-9s (>2011),
- 25-50 Airbus A332/3s (short term lease for growth) /A350-900R´s/1000´s (later) and
- 25-50 A380-800/-900´s (>2011)

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/photos/big/00008640.jpg

[Edited 2007-08-26 22:36:53]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 5:27 am

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 7):
in fact any major airline needs the buy in and approval of no less then 50 suppliers before making fleet decisions...there's thousands out there who know the facts...i though you experts would know that.!

Any major airline only needs the approval of its board of directors before making fleet decisions; suppliers are there to be squeezed until their pips squeak. !!

In reality a fleet purchase involves one or two major decisions, choice of airframe, and if applicable choice of engine; few suppliers of ancillary equipment are in a position to dictate terms to major airlines, and many will be used regardless of the plane chosen.

If there is one thing I really detest; its a person who says "I know something really important, but I'm not allowed to tell you" half the time they are making it up anyway; plus when the news breaks; as they haven't divulged what they purport to know, they will always be correct when they tell you.
 
dl767captain
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 5:36 am

Quoting Da man (Reply 14):

I'm betting the 4 777 UFOs (that put the 777 over 1000 orders) that were booked this week or was it last week was BA firming up its options from when they placed their order for 4 772s from earlier this year.

that is a really good guess and could easily be true

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
25-50 Airbus A332/3s (lease) /A350-900R´s/1000´s (later) and
- 25-50 A380-800/-900´s.

since BA does not have any A330's in the fleet i kind of doubt that will happen, even if leased. But that seems like too many A380's for an airline that does more point to point than major hubs. As for the A350, the A350-900R i think has a good shot seeing as how the 772LR could have comparable range, but not as cutting edge as the A350, as for the -1000 model i don't really see it, but maybe as time goes on they will need to expand, plus the plane would not be available for quite some time so it would not work out too well as a 744 replacement, that is why i see a A380 and 748 mix, and maybe some A350's later when the 777s need to be replaced.
 
TKV
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:22 am

My unsubstantiated prognosis:

1) B748i: They will buy a important quantity to substitute the bulk of the B744. The decision influenced not only by commonality, but because prices will be very attractive, as Boeing must restart sales after the past one to LH

2) A380: They will buy some (5-15) , even if they could manage perfectly with the B748i and if this means to introduce a new and complicate addition to their fleet. Even if denied, there is labor-political pressure on BA to do so, to avoid the danger that Airbus will take out from the UK scope components for the A350, as labor-political consideration makes impossible to reduce further supplies from France and Germany.

3) B777: They will exercise the 4 early delivery options and possibly purchase some new B773ER (if this was not already done with the 4 UFOS announced last week and a further UFO of 12 B773ER short time ago) . I assume the figures for the B748i and B777s are interrelated !

4) B787: As far replacements for B767 are needed, much depends on the arrangements BA could make with Boeing to obtain rapid B788 and B789 deliveries, with the possible help of leases from ILFC. It is really difficult to imagine what could be the solution if such is not attainable.
- to purchase A358 makes not much sense, as delivery would be even later and possibly they are, at least partially, too large. Also, as the aircraft is still in the design stage, there is a large risk timewise.
- to purchase A330 as fill ins would means to introduce in the fleet another new element with a worse CASM in comparison with the B787. In such case it seems preferable to stick to the B767 as long as needed to get the B787 or assuming there are available, lease A330 (in spite the commonality problems)

5) A359, A3510, B7810X, B772LR:
I do not think any decision will be made before Airbus and Boeing do not decide what the will (o can) do.
Much will depend on their decision regarding B777s.

6) A320: Whatever they need as narowbodies.

SUMMARY:
I assume that BA will remain a All-Boeing Twin Aisle customer, with the probable exception of the A380 as mentiones above, and become a All-Airbus Single Aisle airline.

TKV
 
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keesje
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:26 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 18):
since BA does not have any A330's in the fleet i kind of doubt that will happen,

I think the main selling point of the A330 is that it is available "next year", it has the right (cargo) dimensions / capasity and lowest CASM available: http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...us_A350_A330_CASM.jpg?t=1188161552
It will be at lest 5-6 years for BA until something better comes available..

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 18):
that is why i see a A380 and 748 mix, and maybe some A350's later when the 777s need to be replaced.

I think BA stated they don´t want to be launch customer of new aircraft. The 747-8 needs a lot of new stuff to make it competative. MAybe BA wants to wait to see how it performs in operation.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 18):
But that seems like too many A380's for an airline that does more point to point than major hubs.

BA flies to/from all big hubs in the world from Europe biggest hub. Add to that LHR is extremely noise / slot restricted, BA needs a lot of real estate on board, engine/ wings are build in UK

Airtraffic will tripple in the next 20 years according to Boeing and Airbus, BA operates 57 747´s that need to be replaced in that timeframe. I haven´t seen BA strategy to reduce market share

LHR will soon be stuffed with competing A380´s anyhow, Terminal 5 is fully A380 compatible and I agree with BAOPS777 :

Quoting BAOPS777 (Reply 11):
A380 it is not a question of if but how many

A380 proving ok, B777-300ER sales, A350-1000 specs and Y3 rumors don´t strenghten 747-8i prospects.

We all love the Boeing 747 but it is getting old / ignored by passenger airlines, reality seems to be slowly sinking in.

If BA buys the A380, probably nearly 100% cockpit commonality with the A380 and reasonable commonality with the A320 seems a pro for the A350..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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moo
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:32 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 15):
This is again an unintentional misquote, due to the problem of the system that if a reply is not highlighted completely, including the author, the quote is assigned wrongly.

No, you only have to highlight the bit you want to quote (as I did to you just now) and then hit the 'Quote Selected Text' button on that post. This creates the proper quote text and attributes it to the correct original author.

You only start having issues if you hit a posts 'Quote Selected Text' button but have another posts text highlighted - the individual buttons on each post are linked to that post and that post only, but the forum code will accept any highlighted text on the page.

Quoting TKV (Reply 2):
Then why they are not announcing their decisions ?? If all is sealed, this must include the prices and
other conditions, without which no decision would have been possible. So, if they are not more negotiations possible, for what they are waiting in the coming months ??

They might not be waiting for anything other than their own time to announce, they certainly don't have to be in any rush to announce.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 18):
since BA does not have any A330's in the fleet i kind of doubt that will happen, even if leased.

A new fleet of 25 A330s would be enough to stand alone by itself due to the quantity, and it would suffice to build a working relationship with the suppliers needed to support an Airbus widebody fleet before any A350 deliveries.

Personally, while I would love to see the beautiful A330 in BA colours, I doubt that is ever going to happen.
 
gbfra
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 6:54 am

Difficult to predict.

As for VLA I can imagine BA following LH: Orders for the A380 and the B748. Personally I would not be surprised to see them order more A380 than some people here expect.

As for the rest I have no idea. You would expect them to buy the B787 and probably some B777, but we do not know very much about B787 delivery slots (given that Boeing will have reserved production for huge orders from AA and Delta), and Airbus will most certainly offer a sweet A330/A350 deal.

Anyway, as BA's long-haul fleet consists of Boeing today there isn't very much Airbus can lose. They can only win.
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
dl767captain
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 7:05 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 20):
I think BA stated they don´t want to be launch customer of new aircraft. The 747-8 needs a lot of new stuff to make it competative. MAybe BA wants to wait to see how it performs in operation

launch customer? the 748 already has a launch customer and other customers, LH and cargo airlines, i don't think the 748 needs to prove itself, it not like the 787 compared to the 767 technology.

Quoting Moo (Reply 21):
A new fleet of 25 A330s would be enough to stand alone by itself due to the quantity, and it would suffice to build a working relationship with the suppliers needed to support an Airbus widebody fleet before any A350 deliveries.

I guess that makes sense if it was leased and they could get rid of them easily when the 787's arrive, it could have more to do with an A380 order than a A350 order though.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 20):
BA flies to/from all big hubs in the world from Europe biggest hub. Add to that LHR is extremely noise / slot restricted, BA needs a lot of real estate on board, engine/ wings are build in UK

Airtraffic will tripple in the next 20 years according to Boeing and Airbus, BA operates 57 747´s that need to be replaced in that timeframe. I haven´t seen BA strategy to reduce market shar

i believe BA will go like LH, the A380 is not perfect for all routes and neither is the 748, that is why you order both.

Quoting TKV (Reply 19):
4) B787: As far replacements for B767 are needed, much depends on the arrangements BA could make with Boeing to obtain rapid B788 and B789 deliveries, with the possible help of leases from ILFC. It is really difficult to imagine what could be the solution if such is not attainable.
- to purchase A358 makes not much sense, as delivery would be even later and possibly they are, at least partially, too large. Also, as the aircraft is still in the design stage, there is a large risk timewise.
- to purchase A330 as fill ins would means to introduce in the fleet another new element with a worse CASM in comparison with the B787. In such case it seems preferable to stick to the B767 as long as needed to get the B787 or assuming there are available, lease A330 (in spite the commonality problems)

5) A359, A3510, B7810X, B772LR:
I do not think any decision will be made before Airbus and Boeing do not decide what the will (o can) do.
Much will depend on their decision regarding B777s.

6) A320: Whatever they need as narowbodies.

SUMMARY:
I assume that BA will remain a All-Boeing Twin Aisle customer, with the probable exception of the A380 as mentiones above, and become a All-Airbus Single Aisle airline.

I agree, the A330 seems more like a gap filler until the 787s arrive and makes Airbus happy, they don't need a huge number of A380's and the 748 price will look very nice, as for the A350 i still think they will wait until the 777s need to be replaced, and maybe sooner depending on when they need the 772LR or A350R, they might even hold off on the A350 to see what happens with the 787-10. I think BA will keep boeing for wide body and airbus for single aisle, except for the A380, and maybe for a very short time the A330
 
TKV
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 7:07 am

Quoting Moo (Reply 21):
Quoting TKV (Reply 15):
This is again an unintentional misquote, due to the problem of the system that if a reply is not highlighted completely, including the author, the quote is assigned wrongly.

No, you only have to highlight the bit you want to quote

Thank you MOO for your support. But I think we have a misunderstanding. Within your Reply 21, quoted above, I highlighted now the bit from my reply 15 "this is again an unintentional misquote" (nothing more was highlighted!) and as you can see below, MOO and not TKV appears as the author !!!

Quoting Moo (Reply 21):
This is again an unintentional misquote

You can check this directly on the preview of your computer.

Quoting Moo (Reply 21):
they certainly don't have to be in any rush to announce.

What you say would apply only if they had agreed already with the supplier early slots (which could very well be so) If not, they would have a real timing issue at least with the B787

Quoting Moo (Reply 21):
A new fleet of 25 A330s would be enough to stand alone by itself due to the quantity, and it would suffice to build a working relationship with the suppliers needed to support an Airbus widebody fleet before any A350 deliveries.

I would, as already written in my former Reply, try to obtain the earliest B787 slots (with ILFC support?) and in the meantime, stick to the B767 (or use some of the 4+4 B772ER instead)

cordially

TKV
 
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moo
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 7:22 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 24):
Thank you MOO for your support. But I think we have a misunderstanding. Within your Reply 21, quoted above, I highlighted now the bit from my reply 15 "this is again an unintentional misquote" (nothing more was highlighted!) and as you can see below, MOO and not TKV appears as the author !!!

Thats because your quote is part of my post, it became part of my post the moment I quoted you originally and that is how it is dealt with if you highlight it and quote it again from my post.

You can't have miracles, if you want to use the original quote then go further back in the thread and use the original post.

Quoting TKV (Reply 24):
What you say would apply only if they had agreed already with the supplier early slots (which could very well be so) If not, they would have a real timing issue at least with the B787

No, what I said would apply in any situation that BA would wish it to apply in - they don't have to rush to announce any order that hasn't yet been made. Boeing can easily place a hold on certain slots for a period of time if BA was interested without any order being placed, so BA wouldn't lose out by not announcing immediately.

I think you misunderstand the relationship manufacturers have with both their production lines and their customers.
 
777236ER
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 7:31 am

Look at this from who has the most to lose. If Boeing lose the order, they can easily shrug it off. Yes, the 747-8i starts to look a little ropey, but then again it is at the moment and Boeing seem happy to let it tootle along until they work out what Y3 will become. It's not huge loss to the 787 programme is BA don't sign up.

On the other hand, even a modest order of 15 A380 and 20 A350 is a HUGE order for Airbus, the order of the year. All of a sudden the A380 starts to look attractive again, and the A350 starts to look like a winner.

The order has greater benefit to Airbus, who will offer the highest discounts as a result. Remember at the moment Airbus are after cash, pure and simple, at the expense of profit margins.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
Tom12
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 7:44 am

Insider(?) what a crock of shit.


I would personally like to see the 787 and 748I in the fleet, along side the A380. Not sure if that will happen though.


The A330 would be cool in the BA colors.
"Per noctem volamus" - Royal Air Force Bomber Squadron IX
 
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keesje
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 7:47 am

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 26):
If Boeing lose the order, they can easily shrug it off. Yes, the 747-8i starts to look a little ropey, but then again it is at the moment and Boeing seem happy to let it tootle along until they work out what Y3 will become.

I think it is crusial for Boeing / the 747-8. other airlines that didnt order it during the last few years since launch will look even better. LH and Boeing will think agian.

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 26):
On the other hand, even a modest order of 15 A380 and 20 A350 is a HUGE order for Airbus, the order of the year.

I think the Paris Airshow orders for hundreds didn´t hurt. 80 A350s is a huge order.

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 26):
All of a sudden the A380 starts to look attractive again, and the A350 starts to look like a winner.

The A380 is at the brink of introduction. It amassed many hours & bettered / met it performance targets. The A350 got good press from BA, SQ, EK, QF and others. Boeing / GE are pushed into commiting into premature developments.

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 26):
The order has greater benefit to Airbus, who will offer the highest discounts as a result. Remember at the moment Airbus are after cash, pure and simple, at the expense of profit margins.

I think the discounts levels on A380 and 747-8i are predictable. Airbus has a full order book, Boeing is for years desperately looking for 747-8i customers. Draw your own conclusion.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
TKV
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 7:50 am

Quoting Moo (Reply 25):
Thats because your quote is part of my post, it became part of my post the moment I quoted you originally and that is how it is dealt with if you highlight it and quote it again from my post.

Yes, this was what I was referring too. I can solve this simply by highlighting the complete quote (incl. author name) within your post, and than erase whatever is not useful below the author's name.
The problem is that members which do not realize this will continue to misquote !!

Quoting Moo (Reply 25):
Boeing can easily place a hold on certain slots for a period of time if BA was interested without any order being placed, so BA wouldn't lose out by not announcing immediately.
I think you misunderstand the relationship manufacturers have with both their production lines and their customers.

I could understand (barely!) that BA is waiting for some PR reason to announce the orders, but not that they do not tell the beneficiaries if the decision is already firm.
But you are saying the same as me (I certainly do not misunderstood the relation customer-manufacturer):
i.e that if manufacturers have already agreed to hold the slot independently of the order announcement, there is no rush.
By the way; It is even theoretically possible that they have already issued the LOIs or even orders, if we believe what the thread starter wrote !

Another issue: would the B783 not be ideal for the main BA European routes ?? There is a lot of time to obtain the EASA certification !!

TKV

[Edited 2007-08-27 00:52:26]
 
georgiaame
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:14 am

The 380 was designed with Heathrow in mind. I can't imagine BA not going for at least a few of them. The flight frequency argument aside, the nonsensical "green" environmental BS sort of twists the Board of Directors collective arms, they can cut frequency and add seats at the same time into JFK or a few other airports. But after political correctness is properly observed by the collective, the 747 makes so much more sense because it can be flown to so many more unmodified airports, and carries more people (people=profit, profit=your mortgage payment) than current aircraft in use. And for all those aging 767s, et.al, well, they have to get replaced eventually. How do you spell 787?

Any chance of my snagging a position of the BA board of directors with this deep insight?
"Trust, but verify!" An old Russian proverb, quoted often by a modern American hero
 
TKV
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:14 am

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 26):
The order has greater benefit to Airbus, who will offer the highest discounts as a result. Remember at the moment Airbus are after cash, pure and simple, at the expense of profit margins.

But this is what we are hearing for years. The order is so important, therefore we (Airbus) must give the highest discounts, as you say at expense of profit margin (and the break even figure !!)

And Cash ?? One of the perks of attractive offers is a minimal cash advance, I remember an article of
Business Week stating that the advances, not only but especially at Airbus, had shrunken to $ 1 M or less per aircraft. But even if it is $ 10 M, it would be irrelevant.

Extreme low prices are justified on Launch orders, but not for a order after 165 units were sold !!

In the case of the B748i, a huge post LH order would be a kind of "Re-Launch". And Boeing, contrary to Airbus, can afford any kind of discount !

TKV
 
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OA260
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:15 am

Quoting BAOPS777 (Reply 11):
A380 it is not a question of if but how many the CEO has said on more than one occasion that he reckons BA will require 10 to 15 of them.

If true that will make me very happy. I have always wanted to see BA get the A380 . Fingers crossed.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
Most people working in the industry know things that are not publicly known. I always avoided posting in threads that came to close to my job(s). Some times years after there are opportunities to insert some insider info.

Yes you may as well call a press conference after posting it on here LOL....Its always nice to get a scoop but you have to balance it against your job.
 
TKV
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:24 am

Quoting GeorgiaAME (Reply 30):
they can cut frequency and add seats at the same time into JFK or a few other airports

But only, if they carry substantially more pax as a full B748i. In the low season, the fuel consumption per pax carried will probably favor the B748i. Over the year, the + or - difference will probably not be relevant, but favor the A380 as long they maintain the frequency low.

TKV
 
theginge
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:27 am

I am sure that if BA orders the 787 they won't be waiting long for them, I am sure that Boeing will have spaces in the order list for just such an eventuality.
 
777236ER
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 8:47 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 28):
I think the discounts levels on A380 and 747-8i are predictable. Airbus has a full order book, Boeing is for years desperately looking for 747-8i customers. Draw your own conclusion.

You're not seriously suggesting the A380 order book is full!

Quoting TKV (Reply 31):

But this is what we are hearing for years. The order is so important, therefore we (Airbus) must give the highest discounts, as you say at expense of profit margin (and the break even figure !!)

Yes, and most of the time its nonsense. But in this case, Airbus could really use the BA order.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
TKV
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:04 am

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 35):
Yes, and most of the time its nonsense. But in this case, Airbus could really use the BA order.

I really think that they needed the former and need this order badly. The problem is that orders must be attained at satisfactory or at least tolerable prices.
At the given conditions of the B-A market, Airbus has the advantage that Boeing, if there are no special reasons to want a given order, is not willing to engage in a too tough pricing battle. But here, Boeing has a special reason to do whatever is necessary to win the B748i contract from a traditional customer.

But again: I assume they will buy some A380 anyway, due to the reasons I stated in a former reply.

TKV
 
eraugrad02
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:17 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 1):
I'll put on the 787 & 748i.

I tend to agree. With the long line of orders for A380, BA would get new 747's before they could get their hands on an A380. What did BA comment after the corporate people flew on it? Does anyone know? I may change my guess if the reaction was really positive after riding on A380.
Desmond MacRae in ILM
 
ebj1248650
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:50 am

What is the possibility BA would order some new 767s to tide them over until the 787 comes along? A330 would represent a whole new airplane to BA but 767 would be a continued use of an airplane they're already familiar with.
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
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lightsaber
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:55 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 19):
B787: As far replacements for B767 are needed, much depends on the arrangements BA could make with Boeing to obtain rapid B788 and B789 deliveries,

This is the most interesting aspect of this thread. Will Boeing accommodate a (somewhat) loyal customer to keep them in the Boeing fold? That is an interesting question. Now Boeing and Airbus have both secured quite a bit more titanium production; so it appears both are increasing the use of the metal. Boeing could, at some cost, up the 787 production rate. I personally believe there is a good business case to do so. But I can only speculate.

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 22):
Personally I would not be surprised to see them order more A380 than some people here expect.

Me too...

But I think this could be a political as well as an order leverage thing... think about it, BA could play off Boeing and Airbus for delivery slots/prices quite a bit. Perhaps I should say did play off Boeing and Airbus... (anything else would have been silly). So perhaps they will order more 748's than expected (to get 788 slots...)?

Quoting Insiderinfo (Thread starter):
all the selling has been done...both internally and externally...and long haul fleet renewal has been sealed..anything missed...is missed..no further chances of change..

Now that bit is interesting (assuming its true). Decision made... only we must wait for them to announce...

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 1):
I'll put twocents on the 787 & 748i. I think Airbus is fighting for this order hard enough to make it closer than originally anticipated.

I would wagger the same.

Quoting Trekster (Reply 9):
Well, id not like to be your boss then. Having signed a form stating not to disclose information, and then posting the above comment!!



Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
Some times years after there are opportunities to insert some insider info.

NDA's must be taken very seriously. Their expiration dates too.  Wink Anyone who knows anything interesting in Aerospace probably signed an NDA.  Sad Do not be the one who doesn't respect an NDA. Once one gets that reputation, future job prospects... are not as generous as one would expect.


It shall be interesting to see whom BA chose. All are fine airframes. Just as interesting, to me, will be the engine selection. For on the 787 and A380, its not a given with whom BA will choose. With the constraints on slots at LHR, the bias will continue to drift to widebodies. Now what frames will fill up T5?!?

Lightsaber
4 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
da man
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 10:14 am

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 38):
What is the possibility BA would order some new 767s to tide them over until the 787 comes along? A330 would represent a whole new airplane to BA but 767 would be a continued use of an airplane they're already familiar with.

Good point ... I would imagine BA could get some within a quicker timeframe than 772s not withstanding their slot reservations for the 4 options they carry that might have just been exercised (see my above post, quoted below). Any new 763s ordered would be nice commonality wise, but I don't think that the re-sale value would be that good considering they would most likely have RB211s and they would be disposed of when the market was ripe with used 767s that were recently replaced with 787s and possibly A330s and A350s.

Quoting Da man (Reply 14):
I'm betting the 4 777 UFOs (that put the 777 over 1000 orders) that were booked this week or was it last week was BA firming up its options from when they placed their order for 4 772s from earlier this year.
War Eagle!
 
billreid
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 10:30 am

Quoting Da man (Reply 8):
Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 7):
the rest probably take their non-disclosures more serious than me.

You do know that if you get caught, your job is as good as gone. Plus I would assume you would be blacklisted within the industry in the area you reside in.

What inside info has he released. He asked us to guess on the order which we all know is coming. I see no rule breaking just some plain old typical a.net fun.

Its A vs. B...
Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
 
vv701
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 10:40 am

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 22):
As for VLA I can imagine BA following LH: Orders for the A380 and the B748.



Quoting DL767captain (Reply 23):
i believe BA will go like LH, the A380 is not perfect for all routes and neither is the 748, that is why you order both.

What do we know definitely about the up coming order?

We know that it is to replace BA's 763s and their 20 oldest 744s.

We know that Willie Walsh has surmised publicly that BA could possibly operate (eventually) ten to fifteen 380s. But it has also been clearly stated that the imminent order will not include both the 380 and the 748i although this does not preclude both types eventually entering service with BA when the remaining 37 744s are replaced.

So let us assume that the order does include the 380. If it does the number will not exceed 15. So the replacement of 20 existing VLAs will not be on a one-to-one basis.

However if the order includes the 748i the replacement of 20 744s could be on a one-to-one basis. I think that this means that this order is slightly more likely to include the 748i than the 380.

Finally it is possible, even probable that

Quoting Insiderinfo (Thread starter):
all the selling has been done...both internally and externally...and long haul fleet renewal has been sealed..

Once the commercial decision has been made it will have to be presented to the BA board of directors for approval. As I have stated in other threads I would be willing to bet that the order will be announced before the end of September. So who knows when the BA board next meets?
 
DeltaAVL
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 11:00 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 13):
My bet is a 787 order along with a 748 order. However i do believe they ordered a few A380's. But i think most of the order will be for the 787 and 748. Both these aircraft will serve the airline very well. We might even see a small 777 order to hold them until the 787 can arrive. Airbus probably faught very hard to get BA to order the A350, but since the A350 is more of a 777 replacement BA is probably planning on waiting until they see what happens with the 787-10 and see which 777's need to be replaced. I think an A350 order could come later but they will probably wait to see what type of plane it turns out to be. But my be is on a 787,748, and A380 order

Thank you for stating exactly what BAOPS777 said in a previous post.  Yeah sure
 
MCIGuy
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 12:36 pm

I thought Mr. Walsh said in no uncertain terms that the wide body order would not be split and would go to only one manufacturer. Has he said something to the contrary since then?
Airliners.net Moderator Team
 
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RayChuang
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 1:36 pm

I would not be surprised if BA splits the long-range order between the 747-8I and the A380-800.

With the possibility that the EU may impose carbon-emission limits and possibly start imposing tighter landing slot restrictions to reduce both jet engine exhaust and noise emissions, BA will have to start looking at buying bigger planes to cover less landing slots without losing capacity. That means they'll need the A380-800 to cover the busiest routes and the 747-8I to cover slightly less busy routes.
 
laca773
Posts: 2086
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2004 7:10 am

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 2:09 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 26):
On the other hand, even a modest order of 15 A380 and 20 A350 is a HUGE order for Airbus, the order of the year. All of a sudden the A380 starts to look attractive again, and the A350 starts to look like a winner.

I too thought BA wasn't comfortable going with an a/c still technically on the drawing boards especially considering what happened the year before when Airbus decided to start over from scratch.

In my opinion having flown BA several times, I like to have a choice of flights when I fly across the pond to LAX, SFO and etc.. BA has been able to provide this quite well for many many years as well all know and I just don't see BA dropping those frequencies on flights to cities like LAX & SFO to have a 380 replace, possibly two of those flights each? I'd think the same for JFK, IAD etc., but then again those are very different markets so perhaps the 380 would work on those trips?
Would BA mainly use the 380s for flights to HKG, SIN, BOM, DEL, DUB?

I see BA ordering 783/788s to replace their 763s they use on medium range flights {i.e., ATH, TLV, CAI etc..,) and long haul where they currently fly 763s too as well as opening new cities with the 78X series. The 783s would also be great for short haul high capacity flights when needed during high season to certain cities like we have seen before...

Just my 2cents.

LACA773
 
iwok
Posts: 979
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 2:35 pm

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 2:16 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 28):
I think the discounts levels on A380 and 747-8i are predictable. Airbus has a full order book, Boeing is for years desperately looking for 747-8i customers. Draw your own conclusion.

I'd say that the pricing advantage is in the 747's court. The orders for the 748 thus far have already met the break even limit only 2-years into the program, whereas the 380 has only sold about 1/3'rd of its break even limit 8-years into the program.

Since the 380 was projected to sell at least 800 units over 20-years, yet has only sold about 150 over 8-years, is looks like pricing will remain difficult for the 380.


$0.02

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 45):
With the possibility that the EU may impose carbon-emission limits and possibly start imposing tighter landing slot restrictions to reduce both jet engine exhaust and noise emissions, BA will have to start looking at buying bigger planes to cover less landing slots without losing capacity.

Unfortunately, carbon emissions limits will kill the 380, so I hope these rules do not go into effect.

iwok
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1771
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:45 am

RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 2:46 pm

Quoting Iwok (Reply 47):
carbon emissions limits will kill the 380

Carbon emissions limits will only hasten the adaptation of A359's engines to the A388... quite far from 'killing' it.
 
iwok
Posts: 979
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RE: BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing

Mon Aug 27, 2007 4:34 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 48):
Carbon emissions limits will only hasten the adaptation of A359's engines to the A388... quite far from 'killing' it.

My point is that point to hub to point, or point to hub to hub to point travel generates more CO2/pax compared to p2p. Of course certain markets where the p2p is actually hub to hub could be served by the 380. Non the less, I still feel that this whole "carbon footprint" thing is the biggest scam to played on the average Joe for a long time.

iwok

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