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PanAm1971
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:57 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 47):
probably waiting what Boeing has to offer


Well that's just it. But unless B offers some amazing, bargain basement package-and I doubt they can/will, this order will stand as is (at least as it's reported). Even if B somehow comes in under A, it would still not be seen in a good light if BA went with a mostely B order. I've suspected for some time BA would eventually jump in with both feet into the A380 program. It is risky. But it's a managed and reasonable risk... and it's damn good politics. Not unimporatant when your primary regulators reside-increasingly-on the continent. I'll put it to you this way-back in the day when Pan Am was in full form and getting government assistence-would you be a little upset if they had given an order of this magnitude to a foriegn supplier?
 
PanAm1971
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:05 am

Quoting EGNR (Reply 49):
The number of people employed within the UK in relation to Airbus's activities will likely decrease over time. Newer generation aircraft will rely on a far greater use of automated assembly than at present, and it is likely that more components will be made/assembled overseas rather than in the UK. The UK will then simply attach these assemblies to other parts.

Hmmm. Don't ask me to source this, but I swear I've seen an awful lot information comming out about A giving UK firms business with plans to expand. Perhaps I was mistaken?
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:21 am

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 51):
Hmmm. Don't ask me to source this, but I swear I've seen an awful lot information comming out about A giving UK firms business with plans to expand. Perhaps I was mistaken?

I think you have missed the never ending stream of threats that if EADS/Airbus reduces UK workshare on current and/or future products, they will quit EADS/Airbus including existing contracts. Largely happens when rumors mention selling Airbus UK as part of Power8, Airbus UK not getting the wings for the A350, etc.

It doesn't matter for BA as they are not state run, they are not state controlled, and have 0 need to make Airbus happy or play politics.
 
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PM
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:21 am

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 21):
they waited too long and didnt get the 777-300ER when everybody else did

"everybody else"? It's a deservedly popular plane but let's not get carried away!
 
TKV
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:23 am

Quoting Moo (Reply 48):
Is there *any* evidence of this, at all? BA has not ordered out of 'national interests' since Concorde, and even in its publicly owned days it was a major Boeing customer.

People keep saying BA will order out of national interest, wheres the evidence that this is true? Where are the past orders demonstrating this?

I am not saying that BA will not order Boeing, just the contrary, but to cater to the "national interest"
they could order some A380 ( 10 ??)

There is no precedent nor past evidence, as such "national interest" issue did not arise significantly.before

But as I already posted some days ago on other thread:
- there are important Airbus factories in the UK (I am not referring to supplies for a BA order, but of the totality of their sales).
- The UK has lost his direct influence in Airbus, because of the withdrawal of BAE
- Within the intended but not implemented restructuring plans of Airbus, the UK organization was not worse treated, even slightly better, than the French and German counterparts. There are voices asking for shifting more sacrifices to the UK, so benefiting the main shareholders France and Germany.
So, to protect British high-tech industry and jobs, objectively speaking there is some "national interest" involved.

So, some pressure by the EU and the British government is to be expected and not even resented

And why BA needs the EU and the Government ?? Not for financial help, but to maintain such as EK
as far as possible obviously, out of Europe and the UK, between other !!

TKV
 
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moo
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:37 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 54):
There is no precedent nor past evidence, as such "national interest" issue did not arise significantly.before

How about the A300, A310, A320, A330, A340 programs? Why is this now suddenly a matter of national interest?

Airbus has produced nearly 5,000 aircraft in the past 40 years - British Airways has operated only 70 Airbus airframes to date. So why now?

Quoting TKV (Reply 54):
- there are important Airbus factories in the UK (I am not referring to supplies for a BA order, but of the totality of their sales).

Same question as above, why is this now suddenly a matter of national interest?

Quoting TKV (Reply 54):
- The UK has lost his direct influence in Airbus, because of the withdrawal of BAE

The British Government had no influence in Airbus through BAE. If national interest was really the matter here, it would have prevented BAE from becoming so americanised (no, not a bash, BAE has more presence in the US than it does in the UK now, if there really were a national interest thing going, it would be BAE that was under pressure to bring jobs and work back to the UK).

Quoting TKV (Reply 54):
- Within the intended but not implemented restructuring plans of Airbus, the UK organization was not worse treated, even slightly better, than the French and German counterparts. There are voices asking for shifting more sacrifices to the UK, so benefiting the main shareholders France and Germany.

Again, why is this now suddenly a matter of national interest?

Quoting TKV (Reply 54):
So, to protect British high-tech industry and jobs, objectively speaking there is some "national interest" involved.

The British Government demonstrated through the MG Rover Group collapse just what action it takes to protect 'British high-tech industry and jobs' - none at all. Its the free markets decision.

I just do not see the evidence for any likelihood of a governmental interference in this order.
 
WAH64D
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 8:22 am

Quoting Moo (Reply 55):

All absolutely spot on Moo. If BA orders Airbus, it does so because that is the best business decision as they see it. If we take the advice of the last few posts, does that make US Airways unpatriotic because they bought A330 and A350? Of course it doesn't. Non state owned airlines buy aircraft that best suit their operations, not because they come under political pressure to support the "home team".

Quoting Moo (Reply 55):
The British Government demonstrated through the MG Rover Group collapse just what action it takes to protect 'British high-tech industry and jobs' - none at all. Its the free markets decision.

I just do not see the evidence for any likelihood of a governmental interference in this order.

 checkmark 
 
TKV
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:04 am

[
[quote=Moo,reply=55]Quoting TKV (Reply 54):

I will give a short answer to why situation is now different than in the past cases you cite:
But first: Nobody is asking the Government to HELP BA, only it is in the best interest of BA and its shareholders to have good relations.

1) In the past, EADS/Airbus what not in Crisis
2) To maintain the A380 program alive or at least in tolerable economic sutuation, Airbus needs a substantial order like the BA's could be
3) In the past, there was no danger that Airbus, to protect their main shaeholder interests (Germany and France) would shift production from and close/sell furthet factories in the UK. Therefore, if BA gives Airbus an at least satisfactory order, with satisfactory even if not optimal condition for BA, as a Quid-pro-Quo Airbus would eventually not shift from and/or close work in the UK. Of course, this if an agreement is reached.

Do not ask me for support other then knowledge how things work between Big Business and Governments.
But if you want to see an example, look at Daimler-Chrysler, a gigantic and certainly not weak enterprise, acting as factual agent of the German Government at EADS !!

To Ignore such interrelation is not realistic in today's world !! But if you do not believe it, lets wait.

TKV
 
cloudyapple
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:50 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 57):
1) In the past, EADS/Airbus what not in Crisis
2) To maintain the A380 program alive or at least in tolerable economic sutuation, Airbus needs a substantial order like the BA's could be
3) In the past, there was no danger that Airbus, to protect their main shaeholder interests (Germany and France) would shift production from and close/sell furthet factories in the UK. Therefore, if BA gives Airbus an at least satisfactory order, with satisfactory even if not optimal condition for BA, as a Quid-pro-Quo Airbus would eventually not shift from and/or close work in the UK. Of course, this if an agreement is reached.

1) Airbus is not in crisis. It took time to readjust and get its act together which it has achieved.
2) The A380 program going well and is not in any imminent danger of collpasing.
3) There is no chance that Airbus would shift the wings from Filton. You need the expertise and Filton is where all the expertise is. It's not like you can just move your local factory to a sweat shop in who knows where overnight.

Quoting TKV (Reply 57):
Do not ask me for support other then knowledge how things work between Big Business and Governments.

It's the government's problem, if it was a problem, not Speedbird's.

Quoting TKV (Reply 57):
But if you want to see an example, look at Daimler-Chrysler, a gigantic and certainly not weak enterprise, acting as factual agent of the German Government at EADS !!

But if you want to see an example, Air Canada has bought 60 Embraers. How is Bombardier doing? It's limping. How many CRJs Air Canada has on order? ZERO.

Another example? Air France - based where all the widebody Airbuses are built - la France. They have heaps of B773ERs and how many A346s have they bought? ZERO. How's A346 doing for Airbus? Dismally.

What does it tell to me? The airlines can't give a damn. You need to update your idea of a market economy to reflect the 2007 reality.
 
VC10er
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:28 am

Any order would be great so long as they dump the current livery and go back to the landor design which would look amazing on a 787.
 
kaitak744
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:52 am

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 58):
But if you want to see an example, Air Canada has bought 60 Embraers. How is Bombardier doing? It's limping. How many CRJs Air Canada has on order? ZERO.

Another example? Air France - based where all the widebody Airbuses are built - la France. They have heaps of B773ERs and how many A346s have they bought? ZERO. How's A346 doing for Airbus? Dismally.

What does it tell to me? The airlines can't give a damn. You need to update your idea of a market economy to reflect the 2007 reality.

I agree with your theory.

When BA decided to go with the A320 series over the 737NG, they did it not because they wanted to support Airbus. It was because they took over British Caledonian, which had A320s already in their fleet, or on order.

Also, BA will not order A330s. They already dropped the idea when they placed a recent order for 4 777-200ERs.

Also, BA specifically said that they wanted a 1-1 767-300ER replacement. The only aircraft that comes close to this is the 787-8. Also, BA will probably not be stuck with late delivery slots. Given their status, Boeing probably reserved a few slots for BA, just like they did for DL, AA, UA, ect.

Also, it seems BA really wants to start flying transatlantic routes from other European cities. I think this would be a good fit for the 787-8.

SO:

34 787s
--14 787-8 for 1-1 767 replacment.
--30 787-8 for new transatlantic routes.
20 777-300ERs
20 A380s


(Note: they did not specify anywhere in their RFP that they want to replace their existing 777s. They only specified 767 and 747 replacement.)
 
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PM
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:58 pm

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 60):
When BA decided to go with the A320 series over the 737NG, they did it not because they wanted to support Airbus. It was because they took over British Caledonian, which had A320s already in their fleet, or on order.

This is demonstrably wrong. BA inherited a fleet of 10 A320s when they acquired BCAL in 1987/1988. In October 1988 BA ordered 24 737-400s and continued to acquire them throughout the '90s. BA only ordered A320s in their own right a decade later. By then they had a large fleet of 737s. Commonality with their small fleet of inherited A320s was neither here nor there.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 60):
BA will not order A330s. They already dropped the idea when they placed a recent order for 4 777-200ERs.

Not necessarily. They said publicly that it had been a close decision. But for a small stop-gap order of 4 it made more sense to buy more 777s. A larger order may see the A330 back in the frame.
 
Ken777
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:03 pm

When looking at the VLA options, BA was probably given launch pricing on the 748i before LH ordered and that price is probably still on the table. To make that price look even better, consider that the Dollar is less than half the value of the Pound. Right now the 748i is probably the cheapest it will ever be and a very good buy for BA.

On the other side of the coin, the Euro is pretty strong against the Dollar - about $1.36. Add to that the need for Airbus to start selling the 380 at a price that will allow a break even at their 420 (or so) level and Airbus is not in the best bargaining position. It's get a price close to the 748i & increase break even or stick to margins that will keep break even a reasonably stable number.

I believe that the exchange rate and launch pricing will keep the 748i at the top of the list. Buy them now and order 380s later. Airbus will still give them the same price simply because Airbus wants to sell BA the 380.

Slots? I would give Boeing the advantage here on the 748i. They seem to have set a moderate production rate that could be increased to meet BA's needs. Unlike the 787 I believe that Boeing could adjust their production rate 18 - 24 months out without a major problem. Also helpful when working with other potential 748i customers.

Finally, BA has said that they 748i is the plane they had asked Boeing to build. Is that still the case? I'll bet 2 cents it is. All this, for me, adds up to BA taking care of their 748i needs with this order and re-looking at the 380 down the line a bit. Especially if the 380 gets new engines.

On the 787/350 issue the exchange rate probably won't be as important a factor as Airbus will be putting out launch pricing to BA. That's going to bring the 787 & 350 closer and could be a real bum fight for A & B.

Slots, at first glance, might also look fairly close - unless BA put down some refundable deposits and has some attractive slots lined up. Being a conservative irline I bet that is what BA did, especially since the deposits were refundable. (Actually, I think that AA and DL have done the same.) If this is the case then the 787 looks like the choice for this round of orders. The 350 can always be considered later as it comes closer to production.

There is also the chance that Boeing played the game Airbus played - telling SQ not to order the 7E7 with its launch pricing and great delivery slots as Airbus is coming out with the 350 (version 1) that will be better. As Airbus has shown, you really don't need a a plane to play this game. Boeing can talk about future 787s versions or Y3 and might get the 350 order put on hold. Hey, it worked with SQ.  Smile

I believe that this round of orders will go to Boeing for the reasons noted above. That's not to say that Airbus won't get their foot in the WB door later. Airbus has the ability to break Boeing's hold in BA's WB fleet, just as Y1 has the potential of getting into BA's NB fleet down the road.
 
dl767captain
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:45 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 62):
I believe that this round of orders will go to Boeing for the reasons noted above. That's not to say that Airbus won't get their foot in the WB door later. Airbus has the ability to break Boeing's hold in BA's WB fleet, just as Y1 has the potential of getting into BA's NB fleet down the road.

your entire post makes a lot of sense, the A350 is a good 777 replacement but it wont even EIS until around 2013, plus they would have to wait a little longer to actually get their deliveries, i think they have some time to wait and see what the A350 turns into, since it isn't really selling like hot cakes. Everyone says how great a deal airbus has giving the A330 along with the A350 at lower prices but when does this stop? They have already used soooo many incentives that they will need to actually make money off their aircraft. BA has some time to wait on the A350 order and Boeing could be in talks with them right now to see what they want from a 777NG, making BA wait even longer. The 748 was probably made with help from BA to see what they want as they are a large 744 customer, it just makes sense for them to order the 748, the A380 (in a smaller number) makes sense also, but both are definately needed. I think LH had the right idea going for the 748 and A380 and i expect other carriers to follow. and people keep saying the 748i program will fall apart, but there are still other airlines that have not made their orders yet, not to mention UA and NW that will need to replace their 744s someday soon as well. for the BA order i expect, 777 firm up some options as a filler, 748, 787 (for expansion on P2P routes under open skies) and A380, i think the A350 order will be held for a while until boeing finishes talks with BA on the 777 replacement
 
astuteman
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:09 pm

Quoting TKV (Reply 47):
My opinion is that BA normally would not order any A380, as they do not need in front of the B748i and also the improved B777. But the will order some due the political consideration



Quoting TKV (Reply 54):
but to cater to the "national interest" they could order some A380 ( 10 ??)

So BA's "excuse" for ordering the A380 is nicely, conveniently set up, in your opinion.

Sorry, but that's utter nonsense .....

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 62):
Right now the 748i is probably the cheapest it will ever be and a very good buy for BA.



Quoting Ken777 (Reply 62):
On the other side of the coin, the Euro is pretty strong against the Dollar - about $1.36. Add to that the need for Airbus to start selling the 380 at a price that will allow a break even at their 420 (or so) level and Airbus is not in the best bargaining position

Which IMO will make any A380 order all the more positive news for that aircraft, and its prospects, and negative for its counterpart. If you can't sell a 748i now.........

Doh! I'm forgetting of course, such an order will only demonstrate that TKV was right.  Smile

Regards
 
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moo
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:34 pm

Quoting TKV (Reply 57):

1) In the past, EADS/Airbus what not in Crisis

Airbus already have reached their third best sales year ever, and thats with four months of the year to go still. They are increasing production and are back on track with the A380 deliveries.

They may have been in 'crisis' before, but their condition today is a lot better.

Quoting TKV (Reply 57):
2) To maintain the A380 program alive or at least in tolerable economic sutuation, Airbus needs a substantial order like the BA's could be

For it to make an impact to the program, the BA A380 order would have to be 30 or 40 frames or more, at list price with zero discounts. Thats not going to happen, even in some peoples wishful thinking.

Quoting TKV (Reply 57):
3) In the past, there was no danger that Airbus, to protect their main shaeholder interests (Germany and France) would shift production from and close/sell furthet factories in the UK. Therefore, if BA gives Airbus an at least satisfactory order, with satisfactory even if not optimal condition for BA, as a Quid-pro-Quo Airbus would eventually not shift from and/or close work in the UK. Of course, this if an agreement is reached.

The threat by Airbus was to place the A350XWB wing production with another country, not move current production. Airbus and the British Government are in direct talks on the financing for ongoing placement in the UK so why do they need a lacky such as BA to place an order?

In the past year BA has seen a £300m fine for price fixing and a security scare that grounded its fleet and cost it £40m, to name two incidents directly involving Government action which has cost BA money, and prior to that we have employee disputes that the government has refused to get involved in.

The next British general election will be fought around combating global warming, and one of the major points is going to be the pledge to start taxing the airline industry heavily.

So yes, BA certainly feels beholden to the Government, so much infact that its about to hand the Government its wallet, drop its pants and bend over - because thats what you are suggesting happen, BA takes a suboptimal fleet in a move which would have the significant potential to cost them billions of GBP in lost revenue over the life of the fleet and large amounts of money integrating that fleet against its wishes.

No, this won't be a political order, theres no influence there.
 
EI321
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:09 pm

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 10):
PM, the reason I don't know that they will care about the A351 is that they currently don't operate any aircraft that size despite years of having the opportunity to aquire 777-300ER which shares decent commonality with the 777-200ER if not perfect commonality.

They also dont have any aircraft the size of the 787. Or the A380. Or the 747-8.

Anyway, Im starting to think this will go 787, A350 and A380.

Quoting TKV (Reply 54):
Quoting Moo (Reply 48):
Is there *any* evidence of this, at all? BA has not ordered out of 'national interests' since Concorde, and even in its publicly owned days it was a major Boeing customer.

People keep saying BA will order out of national interest, wheres the evidence that this is true? Where are the past orders demonstrating this?

I am not saying that BA will not order Boeing, just the contrary, but to cater to the "national interest"
they could order some A380 ( 10 ??)

People really need to stop suggesting that BA will order aircraft in the national interest.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 60):
34 787s
--14 787-8 for 1-1 767 replacment.
--30 787-8 for new transatlantic routes.
20 777-300ERs
20 A380s

I cant believe that people actually think BA will order the 777 considering what is on offer.

Quoting PM (Reply 61):
Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 60):
BA will not order A330s. They already dropped the idea when they placed a recent order for 4 777-200ERs.

Not necessarily. They said publicly that it had been a close decision. But for a small stop-gap order of 4 it made more sense to buy more 777s. A larger order may see the A330 back in the frame.

BA have not ruled out the A330. The only aircraft thay have ruled out is the A340. However, like the 777 there is no point ordering the A330 considering whats on offer.
 
PanAm1971
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:53 pm

This notion that governments do not attempt to influence decisions in industry is just not reality. As for BA recieving help from the British government; it does like every other airline in the form of security and diplomatic representation in countries like Iran when a business dispute can quickly escalate into something more. In return, airlines, like every other high profile industry, are subject to lobbying by their governments. Those governments can often be ignored-but not always. When there are big chips on the table, this lobbying is more intense. It is foolish to ignore the wishes (at least to be seen as ignoring these wishes) without regard to long term consequences. I've seen this with my own eyes-in a different industry. Finally, there are people here who believe decisions taken by large companies are done in some sort of sealed business Valhalla, where the bottom line is the only consideration. It would be nice. However, we don't live in that world. Nor do humans make decisions like robots. Throw in shareholders and a decision making process can become an almost circus like affair. Just my opinion based on experience. Does not mean I "know it all." Hardly. Appreciate the comments.
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:18 pm

Quoting Moo (Reply 48):
Is there *any* evidence of this, at all? BA has not ordered out of 'national interests' since Concorde, and even in its publicly owned days it was a major Boeing customer. People keep saying BA will order out of national interest, wheres the evidence that this is true? Where are the past orders demonstrating this?

I expect it's just "pre-rationalization" to explain why BA ordered an Airbus product instead of a Boeing one since, god forbid, Airbus should win an RFP on merit.  Sad



One question on the 767 feet - I was under the impression BA is currently overhauling the long-range fleet with the new CW seats. Is this true? For if it is, then BA is going to keep those birds longer then 3-4 years and won't need A330s as interim replacements while they wait for at least leased 787s to bridge to their actual purchases. QF is leasing some BA 763s, I believe, so perhaps BA can lease some of QF's early 787s to hold them over?
 
WAH64D
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:51 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 68):
I expect it's just "pre-rationalization" to explain why BA ordered an Airbus product instead of a Boeing one since, god forbid, Airbus should win an RFP on merit. Sad

Exactly correct. To the enlightened, any BA widebody order that goes to Airbus is a net loss to Boeing. BA's "boeing for longhaul" policy will die with this order. The A haters who are making themselves very obvious in this thread are merely trying to cushion the blow that their "Boeing tinted glasses" are about to sustain. There is no political consideration whatsoever in BA's order plans. Each aircraft will be/has been chosen on its own merits. Once again, this is how I think it will go:

B787-8 (order now)
B787-9 (order now)
A359 or possibly B787-10 once Boeing work out if its economically possible to build it. (order later)
A350-1000 (small order now with options)
A380 (order now)
and an outside chance of a B748i order of less than 20 aircraft. (extremely unlikely if A350-1000 is ordered).

In my opinion there will be no new B772/3ER order and if A359 is ordered, we will see a small amount of interim A332/3 enter the fleet. With the obvious exception of an extremely unlikely B748i order, all aircraft above will have Rolls Royce Trent engines. A358 may be ordered in place of B787-9 but this will depend on whether or not BA is given preferential delivery slots by Boeing, if they are not, the whole order would go to Airbus but this would be a gigantic slap in the face for Boeing and in my opinion has almost no chance of happening. These are the most likely outcomes as I see them.
 
Tristarsteve
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:56 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 68):
One question on the 767 feet - I was under the impression BA is currently overhauling the long-range fleet with the new CW seats. Is this true?

No. The 13 long haul B767 were recently fitted with the old CW seats. They were also fitted with AVOD at the same time.
 
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Ncfc99
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 12:34 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 47):
I Have posted the same several times, but my opinion was rejected with statements " BA is independent minded and immune to politics" As you say, BA needs the EU and the Government and they are certainly independent. but not 100% so as soon "national interests" are involved

My opinion is that BA normally would not order any A380, as they do not need in front of the B748i and also the improved B777. But the will order some due the political consideration. What will happen with A359 an 10 I am not sure, but such A380 order would allow them to chose freely, probably waiting what Boeing has to offer

TKV

I think BA should follow the trend set by the national airline of Germany, Lufthansa, they only operate an fleet of airbus aircraft because alot of airbus employees are German and....... Sorry, they fly boeings, they recently placed an order for 748's, what a load of poppycock......... also the French National airline, Air France, they only fly airbus aircraft as alot of airbus employees are french and the airbus HQ is in Toulouse and..........Sorry, they fly boeings aswell, thats just disgracefull and quite clearly not in the nations intrests. Come on people, I think the reply below has got it summed up pretty well. The people at AF, LH and BA know what they are doing, if that coincides with what the polititions of France, Germany and the UK would like to see happen, so much the better. If not tough.

Quoting EGNR (Reply 49):
BA will order the aircraft that best suits its needs, rather than make a fleet purchase decision based on the UK content of the aircraft to be ordered. The decision will also be based on what will offer the best return for the shareholders in terms of profitability; and of course what deal BA can get from the manufacturer.

God help any airline that orders an airbus unless it is in the national intrest, heavily discounted to the point of loss making or compensation for a delay.

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 50):
I'll put it to you this way-back in the day when Pan Am was in full form and getting government assistence-would you be a little upset if they had given an order of this magnitude to a foriegn supplier?

What goverment assistence does BA get that would upset anyone over a Boeing order.

Quoting TKV (Reply 54):
So, some pressure by the EU and the British government is to be expected and not even resented

This I agree with. Some pressure will be applied.

Quoting VC10er (Reply 59):
Any order would be great so long as they dump the current livery and go back to the landor design which would look amazing on a 787.

 checkmark   bouncy 
 
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Stitch
Posts: 27685
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 1:06 am

Quoting Tristarsteve (Reply 70):
No. The 13 long haul B767 were recently fitted with the old CW seats. They were also fitted with AVOD at the same time.

Okay. So BA is likely to keep the 767-300ERs for a bit, but probably not for another decade.

I imagine if BA can get 787's on lease by 2011, they'll be good to go until they can get their actual planes around 2015 or so.
 
kaitak744
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 1:12 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 66):
I cant believe that people actually think BA will order the 777 considering what is on offer.

So what if there is an A350-1000 on offer... The 777-300ER is a very modern and fuel efficient aircraft. Also, the next delivery slots for the 777 are still a good 5 years ahead of the next A350 slots. There are quite a few airlines recently that have ordered their first 777-300ERs, even with the A350-1000 on the table.

The next A380 slots are in 2010?

BA will not wait that long to replace their 747-400s. By the time they can get a new A350-1000, several of their 747s will be over 25 years old.

They could still order the A350-1000 for future fleet expansion, but I think the 777-300ER will definitely be ordered.


P.S. Sorry, slightly off topic, but starting from EIS of the 747-8i (2009), what is the current proposed delivery rate of the 747?
 
PanAm1971
Posts: 446
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2007 4:28 am

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 1:29 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 68):
I expect it's just "pre-rationalization" to explain why BA ordered an Airbus product instead of a Boeing one since, god forbid, Airbus should win an RFP on merit.

Or simply-in my case-that A makes a very good product and-when all things are equal-should get primary consideration from BA. Full stop.
 
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Stitch
Posts: 27685
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 1:46 am

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 74):
Or simply-in my case-that A makes a very good product and-when all things are equal-should get primary consideration from BA. Full stop.

Then perhaps you should stop posting opinions that BA is facing "nationalistic" pressure to purchase Airbus?

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 40):
Let's face it; an order of this size has political implications. While, BA does not answer to Downing Street, it very well may come under pressure to step up and "get on board" with one of Europe's most important industrial manufacturing companies by gravitating away from Boeing products.



Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 44):
But this is a big big order. A lot of folks in Brussels (Paris and Berlin as well) will be looking to see where the national airline of an E.U. member with shaky ties to European project puts its' chips. It's at least partially political.



Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 50):
But unless B offers some amazing, bargain basement package-and I doubt they can/will, this order will stand as is (at least as it's reported). Even if B somehow comes in under A, it would still not be seen in a good light if BA went with a mostly B order. I've suspected for some time BA would eventually jump in with both feet into the A380 program...it's damn good politics. Not unimportant when your primary regulators reside-increasingly-on the continent.



Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 67):
This notion that governments do not attempt to influence decisions in industry is just not reality...Those governments can often be ignored-but not always...It is foolish to ignore the wishes (at least to be seen as ignoring these wishes) without regard to long term consequences.
 
PanAm1971
Posts: 446
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2007 4:28 am

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:00 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 75):
Then perhaps you should stop posting opinions that BA is facing "nationalistic" pressure to purchase Airbus?

Hmmm. I guess you missed it. I'll try to pull it together for you.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 75):
While, BA does not answer to Downing Street, it very well may come under pressure to step up and "get on board"

See the word "may". Reflecting the following reality;

Quoting Stitch (Reply 75):
But this is a big big order. A lot of folks in Brussels (Paris and Berlin as well) will be looking to see where the national airline of an E.U. member with shaky ties to European project puts its' chips. It's at least partially political.

Leading to my conclusion that it MAY not be possible for it to a purely business decison;

Quoting Stitch (Reply 75):
But unless B offers some amazing, bargain basement package-and I doubt they can/will, this order will stand as is (at least as it's reported). Even if B somehow comes in under A, it would still not be seen in a good light if BA went with a mostly B order. I've suspected for some time BA would eventually jump in with both feet into the A380 program...it's damn good politics. Not unimportant when your primary regulators reside-increasingly-on the continent.

Reinforing the idea that government expect to have SOME influence for the assistence (security, diplomacy) they give;

Quoting Stitch (Reply 75):
This notion that governments do not attempt to influence decisions in industry is just not reality...Those governments can often be ignored-but not always...It is foolish to ignore the wishes (at least to be seen as ignoring these wishes) without regard to long term consequences.

And here's the kicker-there is nothing wrong with that. I know this view will rile many. But, IMHO, it happens every day in industry around the world. BA-nor any other airline-is free from that. Understand?
 
Maersk737
Posts: 660
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:06 am

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 76):
And here's the kicker-there is nothing wrong with that. I know this view will rile many. But, IMHO, it happens every day in industry around the world. BA-nor any other airline-is free from that. Understand?

Then why don't you start jumping all over, most of the US of A airlines, instead of just the European ones?

Cheers

Peter
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:10 am

I was under the impression that the 77W was not being considered?

I've said it before and I'll say it again. It breaks down to two separate order strands as I see it.

787-8 or A350-800 to replace the 767s and the 772As + a few for expansion. Whether they need interim lift and what they will get if that is the case is open to question. One would assume the 767s will soldier on if the Dreamliner gets the nod, whereas the A332 will be brought in if the A350 wins.

A388 to replace the older 744s (the newer frames kept on the routes that arent big enough for A388). BA flies the 744 to a few major destinations that could support the A388 or will be able to by the time BA gets them. Its oldest 744s will be shuffled off and the newer ones kept on the routes that cant. In due course, the rest of the 744 fleet will be replaced by the largest incarnations of the 787 or A350.

I would suggest the benefits of ordering everything from one OEM would be questionable - BA will order what is best for their route structure. There is likely to be political pressure on both sides as the Government may well be being pushed to lean on BA from the Americans to order Boeing and from Europe to go Airbus. Will they split? I dont see any reason why not. Bear in mind that they also need a bunch of A319s as well so perhaps this will be tacked on if and when BA make their Airbus order. I think Airbus are more likely to get 100% of the order than Boeing are, and I must say, a BA long-haul fleet of A350-8, A350-9, A350-10 and A388 certainly does sound very good. Mind you so does 787-8, 772ER, 787-10, and 747-8I. I'll be sad to see those workhorse jumbos go, but progress is progress.
 
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autothrust
Posts: 1468
Joined: Sun Jun 11, 2006 8:54 pm

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:33 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 78):
BA long-haul fleet of A350-8, A350-9, A350-10 and A388 certainly does sound very good. Mind you so does 787-8, 772ER, 787-10, and 747-8I. I'll be sad to see those workhorse jumbos go, but progress is progress.

Doesnt BA want to simplify the fleet? With only 2 models the Airbus bid would help instead of 3 for Boeing. Apart engines may also play a role A350 + A380 RR.

Personally i would like to see a split. 787, A350, A380,748
 
BrianDromey
Posts: 3118
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2006 2:23 am

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:52 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 73):
So what if there is an A350-1000 on offer... The 777-300ER is a very modern and fuel efficient aircraft. Also, the next delivery slots for the 777 are still a good 5 years ahead of the next A350 slots. There are quite a few airlines recently that have ordered their first 777-300ERs, even with the A350-1000 on the table.

The next A380 slots are in 2010?

BA will not wait that long to replace their 747-400s. By the time they can get a new A350-1000, several of their 747s will be over 25 years old.

Indeed the 77W is a very new and modern aircraft. But BA are looking at 787 and A350. These aircraft will outshine the A330 the A340, the 767 and the 777, so why not wait that extra 3/4 years to get the newest kid on the block?

BA have just refited the 744s and are about to refit the 777s with new CW seats. First is supposed to be upgraded as well. SO these aircat will not be going anywhere for a MINIMUM of 5 years, or 2012 in otherwords. BA do not need to replace their aircraft before then. Afterall the 741s survived 'till the late 90's and 742s battled on until 2002 (and would have gone longer were it not for 9/11). BA maintain the aircraft to a very high standard, and keep the cabins up to date, so no one will really notice how old the a/c is.

If BA do go for a 787/A350/A380 mix, I think the fleet couild be based as follows:

787-8 - Based in JFK & European cities for US services (also Manchester) - O&D traffic, high yield, small/no Y class cabins

787-9/-10 or A350 - Based at LHR for connecting traffic to cities not served from Europe, those cities where connecting traffic now uses direct BA services & those cities with high O&D traffic from the UK.

A380- Based at LHR for uber high connecting & O & D routes.

Just my thoughts.
Brian.
 
PanAm1971
Posts: 446
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2007 4:28 am

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 3:05 am

Quoting Maersk737 (Reply 77):
Then why don't you start jumping all over, most of the US of A airlines, instead of just the European ones?

Cheers

Peter

Do you have their CEO's phone numbers?  Wink
 
virtual
Posts: 26
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2007 1:14 am

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 4:40 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 73):
BA will not wait that long to replace their 747-400s. By the time they can get a new A350-1000, several of their 747s will be over 25 years old. They could still order the A350-1000 for future fleet expansion, but I think the 777-300ER will definitely be ordered.

I just can't see BA ordering 777-300ERs.

My bet is that the earliest 747-400s will be replaced by A380s, and the remainder by A350-1000s.
 
scotron11
Posts: 1433
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 4:54 pm

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 6:20 am

Quoting Virtual (Reply 82):

I just can't see BA ordering 777-300ERs.

They won't!
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9524
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 6:39 am

This late in the game, it would seem a little odd to get 773ER's, but stranger things have happened. I would think the A350-1000 would be a great fit for them, and certainly the smaller models as well,though they would have a sizable gap on the low end. A321's perhaps for intra-European routes? I guess that's why the 787-8 makes sense for them, and then Boeing and Airbus can fight for the mid-size widebody fill-ins.

I would really enjoy seeing a 747-8i order, but I have to wonder if it will be coming. In the end, it might be too much of an orphan in an A350-1000/A380-800 world.

-Dave
 
sh0rtybr0wn
Posts: 373
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 8:16 am

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 6:45 am

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 79):
Apart engines may also play a role A350 + A380 RR.

Good point.

BA could use 24 A380s , and with that kind of order on the line, they would have a serious chance of getting the best deal ever on the A350s.... which would let them simplify longhaul down to 2 types, with all the same engine manufacturer.
 
bmacleod
Posts: 2990
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2001 3:10 am

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 7:31 am

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 8):
12 A333 - 2009-2012 - as stop gap before any NG aircraft arrives, replacing 7 B763 & 5 B772A;
15 B788 - 2012-2014 - replacing 14 B763;
12 A359 - 2016-2018 - replacing 12 A333s;
7 B763 - to leave 2009-2011;
5 B772A - to leave 2011-2012;
14 B763 - to leave 2012-2014;
12 A333 - to leave 2016-2018;

24 B773ER - 2009-2012 - to replace a similar number of early B744s;
7 A388 - 2011-2013 - for Hong Kong, Bangkok, and JFK;
31 B744 - 1989-1995 B744s to leave 2009-2013;

16 A3510 - 2015-2017
10 A388 - 2014-2017
26 B744 - 1996-1999 B744s to leave 2014-2017;

15 B789 - 2015-2018, replacing pre-2000 B772s;
9 A359 - 2015-2017, replacing pre-2000 B772s;
16 A359 - 2018-2021, replacing 2000-2001 B772s;

So that's it?  grumpy 

No B748s at all? A little over a year ago airline analysts were saying the A380 was headed for failure. Now the B748 is headed in that direction?
 
cloudyapple
Posts: 1261
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 7:01 am

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 9:48 am

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 79):
Doesnt BA want to simplify the fleet? With only 2 models the Airbus bid would help instead of 3 for Boeing. Apart engines may also play a role A350 + A380 RR.

Not at any cost. Ask yourself what size are the B763s? What size are the A358s? And when are they available? Timing of the delivery is the key to the choice and mix of this order.
 
kaitak744
Posts: 2233
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:32 pm

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:00 pm

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 79):
Doesnt BA want to simplify the fleet? With only 2 models the Airbus bid would help instead of 3 for Boeing.

Even with Boeing, they could eventually have a 2 model fleet. 787-8, 787-10, 747-8i. (currently, they have nothing in between the 777-200ER and 747-400).

Realistically, either an Airbus fleet (A350/A380) or a Boeing fleet (787/747) could both suite British Airways. It is a matter of timing and pricing, and that is where Boeing definitely has the upper hand.



Does anyone know what is the current proposed delivery rate of the 747?
 
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autothrust
Posts: 1468
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:05 pm

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 87):
Not at any cost. Ask yourself what size are the B763s? What size are the A358s? And when are they available? Timing of the delivery is the key to the choice and mix of this order.

The A358 could give better flexibility for future grow on the 763 routes then the 788. But i agree timing, will be very important to win this order.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 88):
Even with Boeing, they could eventually have a 2 model fleet. 787-8, 787-10, 747-8i.

Depending when the 787-10 will be launched, but the point is you cant get the 748 with RR engines = no engine simplification.
 
theginge
Posts: 535
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2006 1:53 am

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:27 pm

BA will order purely on terms to suit its needs and no one elses. They have said many times and still say that they are considering 6 aircraft types, A350,A380, A330, 777, 787 & 748. So you cannot discount anything until the order is announced, and they haven't concluded discussions yet.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:58 pm

The nature of the leaks to the press suggest to me that BA are putting pressure on Boeing to launch a 787-10 that meets their operational needs.
 
WAH64D
Posts: 744
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 4:14 am

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 6:06 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 91):
The nature of the leaks to the press suggest to me that BA are putting pressure on Boeing to launch a 787-10 that meets their operational needs.

I bet!! Along with LH, KL, QF and countless others. The question is, why haven't Boeing done anything about it? There is clearly a sizeable market for such an aircraft. I think we may hear some more definitive news about 787-10 in the project statement from Boeing today.
 
columba
Posts: 5274
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 6:07 pm

Quoting Theginge (Reply 90):
BA will order purely on terms to suit its needs and no one elses. They have said many times and still say that they are considering 6 aircraft types, A350,A380, A330, 777, 787 & 748. So you cannot discount anything until the order is announced, and they haven't concluded discussions yet.

I hope that the rumors are true that they will split the order. My personal wish would be something like this:

20 B787-8
20 A350-900
10-15 A350-1000
20 B747-8I
10-15 A380
 
Geo772
Posts: 439
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 11:40 pm

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 6:22 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 93):
I hope that the rumors are true that they will split the order. My personal wish would be something like this:

20 B787-8
20 A350-900
10-15 A350-1000
20 B747-8I
10-15 A380

Would look quite good, but my brain would be fried by having to do 4 additional type ratings.
 
EI321
Posts: 5075
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 6:26 pm

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 73):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 66):
I cant believe that people actually think BA will order the 777 considering what is on offer.

So what if there is an A350-1000 on offer... The 777-300ER is a very modern and fuel efficient aircraft. Also, the next delivery slots for the 777 are still a good 5 years ahead of the next A350 slots. There are quite a few airlines recently that have ordered their first 777-300ERs, even with the A350-1000 on the table.

Which airlines will be recieving their first 773ER after 2010? Or 2014 in BA's case?

Like saying, 'so what if there is a 777-300ER on offer... The A340-600 is a very modern and fuel effieient aircraft''. But the gap bewteen the A350-1000 and 777-300ER is greater than the gap between the 777-300ER and the A346.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 73):
The next A380 slots are in 2010?

BA will not wait that long to replace their 747-400s

Yes they will. I suggest the search engine in FlightGlobal. One of the articles regarding the BA fleet replacement states that the RFP calls for the 747s to be replaced from 2014 onwards.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 88):
Does anyone know what is the current proposed delivery rate of the 747?

It will depend on what the order book is like. Ive heard a doubling of the current rate (1/mth) suggested, but that did not come from Boeing.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 91):
The nature of the leaks to the press suggest to me that BA are putting pressure on Boeing to launch a 787-10 that meets their operational needs.

Not just BA. This can be said of many airlines, inc EK. I just cant see what is basically a stretched 787-9 meeting their needs. It needs more work.
 
columba
Posts: 5274
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 6:35 pm

Quoting Geo772 (Reply 94):
Would look quite good, but my brain would be fried by having to do 4 additional type ratings.

You can dream though, I hope they will follow LH and order both the A380 and 747-8I. About the A350 and 787 I really don ´t care that much since both look very much the same but widebody quads will be a rare view in a few years with 77W, 787, A330 and A350 being the most common longhaul aircraft.
I miss the days when the most common widebody aircraft after the 747 were the Dc 10 and L1011  Smile
 
EI321
Posts: 5075
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 7:32 pm

Quoting Geo772 (Reply 94):
Quoting Columba (Reply 93):
I hope that the rumors are true that they will split the order. My personal wish would be something like this:

20 B787-8
20 A350-900
10-15 A350-1000
20 B747-8I
10-15 A380

Would look quite good, but my brain would be fried by having to do 4 additional type ratings.

Actually the rating situation would not be so bad.

20 B787-8..............New rating but close to 777
20 A350-900..........New rating but close to A320 (& A380)
10-15 A350-1000....New rating but close to A320 (& A380)
20 B747-8I.............Same rating as 747-400
10-15 A380............New rating but close to A320 (& A380)
 
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Stitch
Posts: 27685
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 9:13 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 95):
I just cant see what is basically a stretched 787-9 meeting their needs. It needs more work.

I do not think the 787-10 is as "bad" a design as some make it out. It's just that Boeing probably can't guarantee an EIS before the mid-2010's and that puts it right on top of the A350, which itself is "guaranteed" to perform in certain ways, but may yet end up either not doing so or doing even more. However, airlines might be pressuring Boeing to meet whatever those guarantees are on the 787-10, both from a "parity" sense (they don't want something grossly inferior) and an "insurance" sense (if Airbus stumbles, they hope/expect Boeing will not).

And there is more then just the 787-10 to consider, since a 787-11 will also be necessary to compete with the A350-1000. Boeing delivering 777-300ERs up to and through the EIS of the A350-1000 gives them some breathing room, since BA and QF are likely the only airlines really under the gun to get the A350-1000 (assuming they're not blowing smoke, which I am inclined to believe they are, at least for now).

Boeing does not want to find themselves in the same position as Airbus was with the original A350, constantly revising the specifications and versions on a month-to-month basis. They'll want to get it right from the get-go so as to offer a complete family. But their own success is working against them right now, as they work on figuring out how to get it into their customer's hands in a reasonable timeframe.
 
Burkhard
Posts: 1916
Joined: Fri Nov 17, 2006 9:34 pm

RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Tue Sep 04, 2007 9:28 pm

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 92):
I bet!! Along with LH, KL, QF and countless others. The question is, why haven't Boeing done anything about it? There is clearly a sizeable market for such an aircraft. I think we may hear some more definitive news about 787-10 in the project statement from Boeing today.

Whatever I read, the long range 787-900 and the shorter range 787-1000 are the structural limits of what the wing can do.

The 787-1000ER ot the 787-1100 are a.net specific day dreams. They would need another wing design - and compete with whatever Boeing intends to do as 777/748 replacement, making that a high end niche aircraft, Boeing will for sure not make a plastic A380 variant for a few hundred orders only.

Boeing also wants to sell more 773 for quite some time - the ultra heavy 787 would kill these - airlines have accepted this, and it is time a.netters accept it too. They will get out of the 787 what they can, but not overstress it...

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