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kaitak
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BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:42 pm

The Sunday Times reports that BA may split its imminent mega-order, not just between Boeing and Airbus, but also between the 787 and A350, both of which are seen to have a very good chance.

The airline sees the 787 and A350 as "quite different products", both of which may have a role to play.

A role is also seen for the A380, although in a small quantity to begin with.

This could be very interesting indeed. Although one cannot draw too many conclusions from what is a relatively short article, this ponts to Airbus getting the upper hand, with Boeing's only contribution to the deal being the 787, albeit in significant numbers. It will be a big disappointment to Boeing if the 747-8 doesn't get a look in.

I have to say that I find the suggestion that the two acft are "quite different products" quite interesting (read baffling), but I'm not the one about to splash out $10b+ on new airplanes; they are, however, very close in capacity. I could see BA going for A350-1000s in the absence of a 787-10, but the A350-900 and 787-9 seem very close in capacity and I just don't see BA being interested in the 787-8 or A350-800. I guess we'll see, very soon.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...ctors/transport/article2367214.ece
 
Slovacek747
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 3:55 pm

This is terrible news. They should go with Boeing for all their aircraft.. Well Airbus can keep the narrowbodies.

Slovacek747
 
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 4:05 pm

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
the A350-900 and 787-9 seem very close in capacity

I'm amazed that people still make this mistake. Is it so hard to get past the superficial coincidence of -9 and -900?

The 787-9 competes very closely with the A350-800. Range, seating and MTOW are all there or thereabouts. The A350-900 has no immediate Boeing competitor which is why the 787-10 is being mooted. Similarly, there is no direct Airbus competitor for the 787-8.

[Edited 2007-09-02 09:12:09]
 
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teme82
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 4:30 pm

Quoting Slovacek747 (Reply 1):
They should go with Boeing for all their aircraft.

Care to explain why they should get all Boeing ??
Flying high and low
 
dl767captain
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 4:41 pm

This is what i was thinking from the begininning, the 787 and A350 are different types of planes, just like the 767 and 777, the A350 is just like a 777NG. So putting them together in an order would serve BA the best. As for the A380, that makes sense but i don't even begin to know how many of those they will order. The 748 is complicated, the only way i don't see them ordering it is if they make the A380s hold almost the same amount of people as the current 744s to use as a replacement, then instead of the 744 772 and 767 it would be the A380 A359 and 787, but i doubt they would use such few seats on the A380. The 748 fits BA on routes that need more than a 777 and less than a A380 so i don't see why that order wouldn't happen.
 
kappel
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 5:03 pm

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 4):
This is what i was thinking from the begininning, the 787 and A350 are different types of planes, just like the 767 and 777, the A350 is just like a 777NG. So putting them together in an order would serve BA the best.

That would be an awesome order and a major breakthrough for Airbus. Let's say, the 787-8, a359 and a3510 along with the a380. I actually doubt this will happen, but who knows... and I really wonder if they see a place for the 748. I actually do think so, but not in very large numbers, maybe similar to LH, about 20 748's and 20 a388's?
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scotron11
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 5:26 pm

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):

A role is also seen for the A380, although in a small quantity to begin with.

I have always thought so, seeing that T5 will have 15 gates that can accommodate them.

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):

It will be a big disappointment to Boeing if the 747-8 doesn't get a look in.

No issue with the choice of enging. ie: none??
 
AlanUK
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 5:32 pm

This BA order has been dragging on for so long, it's time that BA put us out of our misery and announced it!

I would be very surprised not to see 777-300s in there!

About 2 months ago, I made my pronostic, and I stick to it:

Up to 30x 787s
Up to 50x 777s
Up to 20x 380s

We should know by the end of September!
 
cloudyapple
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 5:50 pm

Quoting Slovacek747 (Reply 1):
This is terrible news. They should go with Boeing for all their aircraft.. Well Airbus can keep the narrowbodies.

Not sure why it's terrible. This is fantastic news. But it's not news. We have had more than 10 threads on the Speedbird order. How many more threads do we need?

Quoting PM (Reply 2):
I'm amazed that people still make this mistake. Is it so hard to get past the superficial coincidence of -9 and -900?

The 787-9 completes very closely with the A350-800. Range, seating and MTOW are all there or thereabouts. The A350-900 has no immediate Boeing competitor which is why the 787-10 is being mooted. Similarly, there is no direct Airbus competitor for the 787-8.

I do see them being different. The base models have different capacities - 20-25% difference 3 class to 3 class. The B789 is similar to the A358 in range and capacity and this is the only area to overlap.

Which one to choose depends on the specific requirements of the airlines. It depends on your strategy. The important aspect is your growth projection.

My take of what Speedbird will get - not saying you will see all these ordered in one go:
12 A333 - 2009-2012 - as stop gap before any NG aircraft arrives, replacing 7 B763 & 5 B772A;
15 B788 - 2012-2014 - replacing 14 B763;
12 A359 - 2016-2018 - replacing 12 A333s;
7 B763 - to leave 2009-2011;
5 B772A - to leave 2011-2012;
14 B763 - to leave 2012-2014;
12 A333 - to leave 2016-2018;

24 B773ER - 2009-2012 - to replace a similar number of early B744s;
7 A388 - 2011-2013 - for Hong Kong, Bangkok, and JFK;
31 B744 - 1989-1995 B744s to leave 2009-2013;

16 A3510 - 2015-2017
10 A388 - 2014-2017
26 B744 - 1996-1999 B744s to leave 2014-2017;

15 B789 - 2015-2018, replacing pre-2000 B772s;
9 A359 - 2015-2017, replacing pre-2000 B772s;
16 A359 - 2018-2021, replacing 2000-2001 B772s;
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
 
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 6:20 pm

Depending on when the last 777-200ER leaves the fleet, BA may one day be flying A380s and/or 747-8s plus 100+ new widebody twins. There is ample room there for both the 787 and A350.

Their immediate needs are to replace their 767s and some of their 744s. But they will also have an eye on what comes next - replacing the remaining 744s and the 777s.

Four 777-200ERs haven't even been built yet and they still have four options which they might convert. Either way, the 772ER isn't going to be out of the fleet any time before, say, 2020. But early 777s will need to go and it isn't too soon to be thinking beyond a design which is well into its second decade.

Now, Airbus don't currently have an answer to the 787-8 and Boeing are a long way from meeting the (promised) capabilities of the A350-1000. So an order this month for 787-8s to replace the 767s and for A350-1000s as long-term 744 replacements would put BA in a very strong position. Both Airbus and Boeing would have got their foot in the door. BA could order just 20 of each at this point, leaving the bulk of their widebody twin order to be fought over. The real prize would be 60-80 787-9s (and -10s?) or A350-800s and -900s.

Quoting AlanUK (Reply 7):
I would be very surprised not to see 777-300s in there!

I assume you mean 777-300ERs. It's a long time since anyone ordered 777-300s. Having said that, I've speculated elsewhere that BA might find a home for the -300. It's cheaper than the -300ER and has the legs for the US East Coast from London. It would also offer engine commonality. (Yes, I know BA have plenty of GE90s but not -115s.)
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:09 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 9):
Now, Airbus don't currently have an answer to the 787-8 and Boeing are a long way from meeting the (promised) capabilities of the A350-1000. So an order this month for 787-8s to replace the 767s and for A350-1000s as long-term 744 replacements would put BA in a very strong position. Both Airbus and Boeing would have got their foot in the door. BA could order just 20 of each at this point, leaving the bulk of their widebody twin order to be fought over. The real prize would be 60-80 787-9s (and -10s?) or A350-800s and -900s.

PM, the reason I don't know that they will care about the A351 is that they currently don't operate any aircraft that size despite years of having the opportunity to aquire 777-300ER which shares decent commonality with the 777-200ER if not perfect commonality.

However Airbus has one critical problem as you pointed out, they don't have a 788 counterpart. Which is oh... just kinda really important when the customer is trying to replace a large fleet of 767's. The A321 even in a A321E version just falls way to short in the % of 767 missions it can "make do" at, and the A358 just dwarfs the capacity of the 767line. While it should still have lower trip costs making it a "smaller" plane to the customer, its not competing against a 767 for BA, its competing against the 788 for 767 routes and only 767 routes. The A358 IMO will lose every time unless its being sold as the stubby brother of the A359/A351 when those two are replacing 777/A340/747.

Which brings up something I think Airbus has missed. Long have they desired to have a complete range, and had a huge trainwreck with the A380 program trying for this. Now Today, we see that shortly they will have a HUGE hole in thier "front line" products. They left a huge A321 -> A358 gap both in floorspace/seatcount. Boeing was roasted by a few for leaving a 739 -> 788 gap, yet one might note that the 737RS should launch in but a year or maybe two providing Airlines with a larger "narrowbody" and then the 788 is a solid size smaller than the A358. That said sales of the A330 should cover the hole for a few years atleast. I still forsee a time when Airbus is very busy with a A320NG or whatever thier plastic narrowbody will be called, and that gap can't be met in RFP's by a A330 even at Airbus's cost.

Quoting PM (Reply 9):
Having said that, I've speculated elsewhere that BA might find a home for the -300

The 777-300 is perhaps a bit too short legged. Its biggest existing benifit over the rest of the 777 range is IMO useless to BA since they don't do high density short haul like a 773 does. However Boeing might well rack up a few more 773 sales for that use since they haul around 744D passenger loads or near enough to not matter, and still have cargo room. Oh and of course the other benifits the 777 brings over the 747.
 
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:27 pm

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 10):
they currently don't operate any aircraft that size despite years of having the opportunity to aquire 777-300ER

That's right but acquiring airliners is a cyclical business and I guess that 777-300ER (although an amazing plane and ideally timed for many other airlines) just came too soon or too late for BA. (And, I might add, QF and, perhaps the likes of UA and others.) That's to take nothing away from what will I believe go down in history as a real winner but if the A350-1000 lives up to its billing then then 777-300ER should be able to date with some confidence the point when it will fall behind the competition - as all designs necessarily must. BA can work that out too. Take a couple of dozen 777-300ERs from, say, 2011 to 2013 or wait four or five more years for something which promises to be significantly better?

And the fact that BA aren't currently operating a plane in that size is neither here nor there. Airlines' strategies evolve and develop over decades. Because they didn't do it yesterday and aren't doing it today doesn't mean that they won't do it tomorrow.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 10):
777-300ER which shares decent commonality with the 777-200ER

Some, I guess. But the 777-300 surely has more commonality with the 777-200ER. Don't be misled by the -ER suffix. The -200/-200ER/-300 were 'first generation' and the -200LR/-200F/-300ER are 'next generation'.
 
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scbriml
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:32 pm

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 10):
Now Today, we see that shortly they will have a HUGE hole in thier "front line" products.

Which, of course, doesn't mean it will stay there.

It's entirely possible that airlines with 767s and 777s will look at the A350 family as an opportunity to replace both those models with a single type. Yes, the A358 is bigger than a 763, but then so is the 788. Traffic growth is a key issue here. Boeing has pitched the 787 family as a scaled-up 767 replacement (don't forget the 788 is bigger than a 764!) Airbus has done the same with the A350, but moved slightly further up the size scale.

Any airline looking to replace 767s will be looking at both the A350 and 787 to do that job.
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ThePRGuy
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 8:18 pm

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 8):

Umm, I doubt the 767 will be in their order book, the only reason they are keeping them is because they are worth naff all!

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chiad
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 8:26 pm

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 8):
My take of what Speedbird will get - not saying you will see all these ordered in one go:
12 A333 - 2009-2012 - as stop gap before any NG aircraft arrives, replacing 7 B763 & 5 B772A;
15 B788 - 2012-2014 - replacing 14 B763;
12 A359 - 2016-2018 - replacing 12 A333s;
7 B763 - to leave 2009-2011;
5 B772A - to leave 2011-2012;
14 B763 - to leave 2012-2014;
12 A333 - to leave 2016-2018;

24 B773ER - 2009-2012 - to replace a similar number of early B744s;
7 A388 - 2011-2013 - for Hong Kong, Bangkok, and JFK;
31 B744 - 1989-1995 B744s to leave 2009-2013;

16 A3510 - 2015-2017
10 A388 - 2014-2017
26 B744 - 1996-1999 B744s to leave 2014-2017;

15 B789 - 2015-2018, replacing pre-2000 B772s;
9 A359 - 2015-2017, replacing pre-2000 B772s;
16 A359 - 2018-2021, replacing 2000-2001 B772s;

So when you sum it all up this is your guess (the most detailed I've seen so far).
54 Boeings and 82 Airbus' (136 total widebodies).

24 B773ER
15 B788
15 B789

12 A333
37 A359
16 A3510
17 A388

That would be one healthy fleet.
 
The Coachman
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 9:47 pm

And 4 new types!

That's too many. If they can't get 788's before 2012, another option is to lease some 332s for a few years.

I doubt 77Ws and 350s will be ordered together - the 350-1000 would be a replacement for the 77W - there is no point ordering them both. They're probably better off getting more 777-200ER and go on yield and frequency for the short term considering they already have a large fleet of them and go for the A350-1000 in the longer term.

I'd say:

25 x 351
20 x 359
10 x 772ER
15 x 789
20 x 788

That's 90 frames - assume about 15 A388, that brings it up to 105 frames - put more options on either a mooted 787-10 or a A350-900 - and let the best performer win once they've entered service. Most importantly, it gives you only 2 new types. If you add the A388, you get 3 types. I think the 330's are pointless.

It should be noted that their 772ERs have plenty of life left in them, at least 10 more years - some haven't even been built.
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 9:59 pm

Quoting The Coachman (Reply 15):
Most importantly, it gives you only 2 new types. If you add the A388, you get 3 types.

I take your point but how long can BA wait before replacing at least some of their 744s? It has to happen before the A350-1000 will be in service - even if BA are prepared to be a launch customer (which they probably aren't). That pushes BA towards one or more of the A380, 747-8i, 777-300ER or  crazy  A346!

From that list I'd rank them in order of likelihood exactly thus: A380, 747-8i, 777-300ER or A346.

Enter the A380...
 
boo25
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 10:07 pm

I work for BA at LHR shorthaul - The airbus fleet works very well on the European side of things, with a good mix of 319/320/321's ..and the odd flight on the rarer 757's and 767's - the 767's are particularly good on our long sectors (DME/IST/LCA/ATH etc...), where the aircraft fills up and feels like a longhaul sector.
I'm not sure what is best placed to replace these in time to come, i think a widebody will always be needed on shorthaul , dreamliner, sizewise i guess, though it would make sense to have airbus due to flight crew logistics ....

As for longhaul, i think BA would be well served by keeping at least some of element of the 747/777 theme ... i feel 773's would be a natural choice , and also maybe the 747-8....
BA are normally quite 'careful' over fleet choice, i don't know if the dreamliner would be a step too far and i think the A380 is out of the picture in the medium term...
The A350 may appeal, with the succesful and efficient use of the current airbus fleet, so i think a keen interest may be expressed there.

Increasingly with most airlines, alot of it comes down to money, so they would want their order to be a sound and safe investment - and a long lasting addition to the fleet.
They are very much into fleet simplification too, so this will be a strong factor in the final decision.
 
gbfra
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 10:19 pm

Quoting Boo25 (Reply 17):
They are very much into fleet simplification too, so this will be a strong factor in the final decision.

If simplification is a major issue, they could operate an all-Boeing widebody fleet consisting of B748, B777 and B787.
However, there will be other issues than simplification.
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 11:06 pm

Quoting AlanUK (Reply 7):
This BA order has been dragging on for so long, it's time that BA put us out of our misery and announced it!

I would be very surprised not to see 777-300s in there!

I would expect the B-777-300Er to be ordered, also.

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 8):
My take of what Speedbird will get - not saying you will see all these ordered in one go:
12 A333 - 2009-2012 - as stop gap before any NG aircraft arrives, replacing 7 B763 & 5 B772A;
15 B788 - 2012-2014 - replacing 14 B763;
12 A359 - 2016-2018 - replacing 12 A333s;
7 B763 - to leave 2009-2011;
5 B772A - to leave 2011-2012;
14 B763 - to leave 2012-2014;
12 A333 - to leave 2016-2018;

24 B773ER - 2009-2012 - to replace a similar number of early B744s;
7 A388 - 2011-2013 - for Hong Kong, Bangkok, and JFK;
31 B744 - 1989-1995 B744s to leave 2009-2013;

16 A3510 - 2015-2017
10 A388 - 2014-2017
26 B744 - 1996-1999 B744s to leave 2014-2017;

15 B789 - 2015-2018, replacing pre-2000 B772s;
9 A359 - 2015-2017, replacing pre-2000 B772s;
16 A359 - 2018-2021, replacing 2000-2001 B772s;

So, you think BA will order the 12 A-330-300 as a temp fill in for only 6 years? Then try to dump them on the market when everyone else is dumping A-330s as their new B0787s arrive? I don't think BA will go for that. It will be far cheaper to keep those 21 B-767-300ERs and 5 B-777-200s in service an extra 6 years.

I agree that some (12-14?) B-777-300ERs will replace a like number of B-747-400s, but I just don't see where BA can use up to 29 A-380-800s. It does not have the range all year long to fly LHR to Hong Kong or Bankok. BA may just opt for some B-747-800i to replace the remaining B-747-400s. The B-747-800i is similar to the B-747-400, so it is not a new type introduced, the A-380-800 is. Simiraly, adding the B-777-300ER to the fleet is the same thing, it is not really a new type, where the A-300-300 is.

In the mid part of the next decade, BA may just order the A-350-900/-1000 as a B-777-200/-200ER/-300ER replacement, but not as a launch customer. BA said they don't want to do that anymore. There may be other options available by then, too. Y-3 or a B-787-1000, or even an A-360.
 
TKV
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 11:14 pm

This is again a double thread, as the same is being discussed under "BA Plans Firmed..who's Guessing"

These kind of doubling makes a comprehensive discussion very difficult, and really is against the Forum rules !!

I would suggest the freeze one of the threads !! !!

Of course, the first conclusion after reading this article is that it is based on a collection of rumors, some of them basing on sources "outside BA", whatever this means. It must be recalled that the London Times in the last months, in spite its prestige, has made several very serious gaffes, between them (also months ago) that EK would issue "in the next week" a mega-order for A350, even citing exactly the very low alleged prices !!

The second conclusion is that it contradicts diametrically what the starter of the other thread told us, meaning that BA has already made his decision.

TKV
 
sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 11:24 pm

BA is historically cautious and doesn't like to order new types before they are proven performers.

So I would be shocked to see BA order a fully "Paper" A350 right now , this fall. But then again, they waited too long and didnt get the 777-300ER when everybody else did, and they missed the boat for the 787, ( and even if Boeing "gives them some saved slots" it wont be enough planes to dramatically change their fleet ) so maybe they should take their chances on the A350, before it too has a 700 plane back-order.

So many of BA's competitors are getting the A380, and LHR will be well ready for the A380 by the time BA gets some, so I think they should order 15 or 20. If they do, it might get them a great deal on A350s.

Does it make sense for BA to refurbish the 767 interiors with new seats / IFE etc. like AC is doing? That would hold them over untill 787 or A350.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 11:25 pm

Quoting TKV (Reply 20):
Of course, the first conclusion after reading this article is that it is based on a collection of rumors, some of them basing on sources "outside BA", whatever this means. It must be recalled that the London Times in the last months, in spite its prestige, has made several very serious gaffes, between them (also months ago) that EK would issue "in the next week" a mega-order for A350, even citing exactly the very low alleged prices !!

But, rumor about some future unannounced mega Airbus or Boeing order by airline XX is what many here on a.net live for.

I agree with you on both of your points, the rumors and you cannot always believe what you read in newspapers or on the news.
 
BAOPS777
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 11:29 pm

The order will definatly be split because BA want the 787 but cant wait for the delivery dates that are available. The whole 747-400 and 767-300 fleet require replacing. in next 10-15years.

BA want the A380 to operate routes that are already operating at capacity but due to goverment restrictions extra flight cant be provided. A good example is JNB and CPT which are always operating full and revenue is very high.

BA also want to add another daily flight to HKG. They also want to branch out again in South America, Incase the IB takeover goes to another airline. BA need to re establish routes The GRU service is one of BA's top 10 routes for revenue. BA also want to re-establish direct services to GIG and EZE which BA already has plans for 5 flights a week.

DEL, BOM and BLR are in BA top 6 revenue routes. So a A380 may be more suited to these routes rather than increase frequency just increase the a/c size.

Lastly in previous threads people have said that the A380 would be used to JFK. This would never happen. What makes BA services to JFK popular is the number of daily frequencies. Using a A380 would see ferequency trimmed. Pax say the top 3 reasons that the JFK route is popular is

1. Club World Product. Particularly the seat and the Good Night service, lounge , preflight dining
2. The crew.
3. The number of daily services available.

So for this reason I could see them using the A350-1000 or 787 which could result in more frequency

So I will go with


10-15 x A380
20-30 x A350
30-40 x 787
10 x 772

Then options and slots reserved for after 2012 for the same numbers again
 
Maersk737
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Sun Sep 02, 2007 11:31 pm

Quoting TKV (Reply 20):
The second conclusion is that it contradicts diametrically what the starter of the other thread told us, meaning that BA has already made his decision.

Isn't that what a forum is all about? Rumors, and from time to time facts?

Cheers

Peter
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dl767captain
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:17 am

Ok so as i'm reading i see, the planes needing to be replaced the soonest are, some 744's, 767's, and older 777's.

For the 744, I do not see the 773ER, they have had forever to buy that plane and still have not, to me that says 748 order. The EIS of the 748 looks like 2009, and 2010 for some carriers, maybe boeing could move some things around and get BA some earlier slots to replace those older 744s, then BA could do a follow on order later when more need to be replaced, that way they would have the perfect aircraft to replace the 744's and serve those routes that need more than a 772 and less than a A380. I don't think the A350-1000 will be used to replace the early 744's, the EIS is not for a long time and some of the 744s need to be replaced sooner than that, but the -1000 competes with the -300ER, so if BA did not want the -300 then they probably won't want the -1000 either.

For the 767, the 787 seems like the perfect replacement, just one problem, the delivery slots are booked way into the future, 2013 to 2014. So we could still see an order but i think the 787's would be used for expansion to smaller airports as p2p, taking advantage of the open skies agreement, the 787-3 would work well for a 767 replacement, but none of these are available for a while. So to me it seems they would either need to be leased, or if BA does go with the A350 as well then maybe a lease for some A330s until the 787 arrives. But i do not see them actually buying the A330, just leasing them for a few years.

The 777s, this is difficult, The A350 seems like the best candidate, mostly because that is what it's made for. The A359 seems like the perfect replacement, it will be a while until the EIS, but BA could firm up some of their remaining options for the 777 as a filler until the A350s arrive,

So as i see it, and early order would be in small numbers, 787-8, 748,A380, A359. I know people will say that adding 4 new aircraft types will be an issue but there is no choice, the 777 design will be getting old, there is only a new 747 and a new 380/350. the shift will happen gradually as the planes become available. i just don't see them not having the 748.
 
jfk777
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:22 am

With the cuurent frequencies to JFK, Ba needs to add bigger planes at times and the A380 would fill that role. A380 to the USA are going to happen if tehy operate the plane to JFK, LAX, SFO, BOS, MIA and YYZ
 
dl767captain
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:24 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 26):
With the cuurent frequencies to JFK, Ba needs to add bigger planes at times and the A380 would fill that role. A380 to the USA are going to happen if tehy operate the plane to JFK, LAX, SFO, BOS, MIA and YYZ

i agree but with their frequency there is room for both the 748 and the A380 on the same routes just at different times, much like they have the 777 and 747 on the same routes
 
LXA340
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:26 am

How does it look regarding pilot contracts with the A32S pilots. Can they be used to fly long haul equipment eg A380 or A350 if BA will get both or one of those types with minor changes in their cntracts or would it involve a high pay raise? On the other hand I oculd imagine if A32S pilots will not get the chance to fly long haul equipment trouble could arise from their side as they are fully capable of doing so with Airbus equipment.
 
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seabosdca
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:52 am

One thing to keep in mind is that BA is becoming a more and more premium airline -- off the top of my head the high J 744s are some of the most premium 744s in the world. Premium seats are heavy and take up a lot of floor space, and BA is demonstrating that it can sell very high numbers of premium seats. That, to me, suggests that larger a/c with more lift capacity are likely to win BA RFPs.

I see the A380 as essential for HKG, NRT, and maybe BKK where flights must depart within a small time window. In other current 744 markets, the 748 might be more beneficial as it is not quite so large, has marginally longer range (we think), and will probably require fewer modifications to airports. It is hard for me to imagine BA replacing more than a small number of 744 with smaller planes. The 744 replacement order will probably come in phases, as many 744 are still relatively new; this will also allow BA more flexibility in working out the optimal A380/748 balance.

Most of the 772 (except for the few 772A) won't need to be replaced for awhile yet. They will not, I expect, be included in the first order. In the long term, I again expect BA to grow the planes, which suggests they will be replaced by an A35J/773ER-sized a/c. I think Boeing has time here to engineer a 787-10ER or 787-11, or even to launch a Y3, before BA will order. That said, of the current choices the A35J looks optimal for 772 replacement.

And, as we've discussed, there are no alternatives but the 788 and A332 for 763 replacement that needs to happen relatively soon. As an operator that prefers to keep a/c for a long time, I think BA will prefer the 788. Therefore, my predictions are:

First order (real soon now)
12 A380 (744 replacement) + 25 options
10-15 748 (744 replacement) + 30 options
15 788 (763 replacement) + possibly options that may be converted to unannounced 787 variants in the future

Second order (sometime around 2012 for delivery in 2016 or so)
Firming of some combination of A380 or 748 options (or conversion of 748 options to Y3, possibly) (to replace remaining 744s)
45 A35J, 787-10ER/787-11, or small Y3 (777 replacement)

We'll be speculating about BA orders for a long time. Big grin
 
cloudyapple
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:52 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 19):
So, you think BA will order the 12 A-330-300 as a temp fill in for only 6 years? Then try to dump them on the market when everyone else is dumping A-330s as their new B0787s arrive? I don't think BA will go for that. It will be far cheaper to keep those 21 B-767-300ERs and 5 B-777-200s in service an extra 6 years.

Singapore is doing it. If Airbus wants the deal they will offer such arrangements. You don't have to buy any of them - just lease them. Do you think Speedbird is that stupid to take on the risk by buying and sell these aircraft in 6 years? It won;t be hard at all to get rid of the A333s. We are talking 12. SIA is leasing 19 from Airbus. We are talking 11 years from now. Not today. I simply cannot see the B763s staying for any longer than 3-4 years. It's at least 6 before B788s and A358s START arriving. It takes time to build up a fleet.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 19):
I agree that some (12-14?) B-777-300ERs will replace a like number of B-747-400s, but I just don't see where BA can use up to 29 A-380-800s. It does not have the range all year long to fly LHR to Hong Kong or Bankok. BA may just opt for some B-747-800i to replace the remaining B-747-400s. The B-747-800i is similar to the B-747-400, so it is not a new type introduced, the A-380-800 is. Simiraly, adding the B-777-300ER to the fleet is the same thing, it is not really a new type, where the A-300-300 is.

If you read carefully what I wrote - 7 A388 ASAP and the other 10 to replace the last B744s. 17 in total. I have never had 29 in my post. And are you seriously suggesting it hasn't got the range for Heathrow Hong Kong? I take it was a joke but it's one stupid joke.

I do not see B748s having anything to do with Speedbird. The freighter maybe but they don't fly any except for the 3 GSS ones. Definitely not the passenger version. By only able to sign 1 (one) customer in 2 years it's obvious it's not what the market wants. Same scenario as the original A350. Remember how it was tagged a warmed over A330? Exactly the same here.

The only new types are A380, A350 and B787. Remember in the same time they will have lost 2 types - B767 and B747. So in effect only 1 net gain.

The information I provided was not derived from any source within British Airways. It purely my informed take as an analyst.
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
 
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RayChuang
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:10 am

I wouldn't be surprised that BA orders as many as 25 A380-800's. The routes from LHR to SFO/LAX are always very busy and upgrading to the A388 may make sense.
 
cloudyapple
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:10 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 20):
I would suggest the freeze one of the threads !! !!

It would be the other thread then. It's a mess in there. And that guy who started it has ran away. He got banned last time he posted "insider info". The other thread has >250 post so it's about time we start a proper one.

Quoting ThePRGuy (Reply 13):
Umm, I doubt the 767 will be in their order book, the only reason they are keeping them is because they are worth naff all!

If you had read carefully - I said they were to leave the fleet by those years.

Quoting Chiad (Reply 14):
24 B773ER
15 B788
15 B789

12 A333
37 A359
16 A3510
17 A388

That would be one healthy fleet.

The A333s are stop gaps. They will disappear after 6-8 years back to Airbus.

Quoting BAOPS777 (Reply 23):
So I will go with


10-15 x A380
20-30 x A350
30-40 x 787
10 x 772

Yes yes yes what years? All of you failed to consider when they need to replace what. They do not need to replace all 57 B744s and 49 B772s. They need to get rid of 30 or so B744s, the B763s and the B772As pretty soon. This can only be done gradually so I have considered the age of the fleet in my analysis.

They can't wait for too long to replace the 1989/early 1990s B744s so their only real options are A388s and B773ERs.

Then on they do have more choice with A3510s and in time with the traffic growth more A388s can be justified. So I have stated 3 routes and 7 A388s initially but more will come.

As for the B772s. The As are going imminently with 12 years on the clock and 16-18 when their replacement arrives. Just the right time frame for them to be replaced together with the B763s with A333s and later B788s. The B772ERs don;t need to go for a few more years. The 4 new ones will simply roll over the oldest 4. with the rest gradually replaced by B789 and A359s, segmenting the market with a lower end fleet and a higher end fleet capacity-wise.

If you look at my numbers the fleet size and the years do add up.
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
 
dl767captain
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:24 am

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 30):
By only able to sign 1 (one) customer in 2 years it's obvious it's not what the market wants.

that is because there are still many airlines that are not ready for a fleet renewal yet, i think the 748 and A380 will be just as important a combination as the 787 and A350. Airlines will realize that there needs to be something between a 777 and A380. As much as people want to believe that the A380 will kill off the 747, they are wrong, the A380 will eat up some of the orders but definately not all. There are just some routes that do not need an A380, that is where the 748 comes in.

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 32):
es yes yes what years? All of you failed to consider when they need to replace what. They do not need to replace all 57 B744s and 49 B772s. They need to get rid of 30 or so B744s, the B763s and the B772As pretty soon. This can only be done gradually so I have considered the age of the fleet in my analysis.

They can't wait for too long to replace the 1989/early 1990s B744s so their only real options are A388s and B773ERs.

read reply #25, i talked about what planes are needed soon, and in smaller numbers to replace the oldest jets.
 
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ERJ170
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:30 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 31):
I wouldn't be surprised that BA orders as many as 25 A380-800's. The routes from LHR to SFO/LAX are always very busy and upgrading to the A388 may make sense.

Considering the amount of traffic LAX/SFO-LHR.. is it best for BA to offer a plethora of seats at a lower price or offer a fewer seats at a more premium price? I'm sure it's not being said they will replace their current 1:1, but a little seat restriction will allow for a higher profit (at least in my opinion)...
Aiming High and going far..
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:20 am

Why would they order in "stages" ?

They just place the order and select the slots they want. They can order as many as they like and have them delivered at 1 per year if it suits them. It makes no sense from a pricing perspective to order 5 now, then maybe 10 in 2 years time and so on. Besides, that's what options are for.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
cloudyapple
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:41 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 35):
Why would they order in "stages" ?

We are talking a first batch of up to 70 + options. Then batches of 20-30 + options every 5-6 years (basically firming old options and adding new options). These are no small numbers.

Placing a bet on the fleet mix in 25 years' time and placing deposits for all 130 aircraft is a risk to the business. Anything can happen in the next 25 years. What if the next CEO has a change of strategy?
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
 
Aircellist
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:42 am

Quoting BAOPS777 (Reply 23):
Lastly in previous threads people have said that the A380 would be used to JFK. This would never happen. What makes BA services to JFK popular is the number of daily frequencies. Using a A380 would see ferequency trimmed. Pax say the top 3 reasons that the JFK route is popular is

1. Club World Product. Particularly the seat and the Good Night service, lounge , preflight dining
2. The crew.
3. The number of daily services available.

I always am amazed by this supposition that it is only frequency per se that is important... If it was so much primordial, wouldn't BA manage to free up enough slots from LHR to have an air bridge made of 767, and place a flight every half hour? Or, could it also be that the said number of services available just means that there are a big lot of seats available? If it is bout the number of seats, then the A380 makes sense. If it is only about frequency, then, comparing the LHR-JFK flight schedule to the shuttles between, say, LGA and BOS, then, I am a bit disappointed  

edit: spelling

[Edited 2007-09-02 19:45:37]
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes
 
slz396
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 4:09 am

Regardless of what British Airways will order, with this latest development it is looking almost a given Airbus will finally break into Boeing territory and BA will order Airbus wide bodies for the first time !

All Boeing can hope for is that BA orders the 787 in large enough numbers and pray that they don't snub the 748i like all but one blue chip customers have done so far to sweeten the bitter pill over the loss of yet another customer which traditionally bought Boeing widebodies only.
 
CYatUK
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:18 am

A lot of dates have been mentioned but does anybody have a real clue as to When this order (or at least its first part) be announced?
 
PanAm1971
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:47 am

Let's face it; an order of this size has political implications. While, BA does not answer to Downing Street, it very well may come under pressure to step up and "get on board" with one of Europe's most important industrial manufacturing companies by gravitating away from Boeing products. And here's where I get flamed; there's nothing wrong with that. IMHO BA may well be primarily an A customer within 20 years. Airbus employes a lot of people in the UK either directly or indirectly. That's likely to increase, not decrease. BA also gets various forms of assistence from the government. It only makes sense that BA would at least give half this order to Airbus. It would be strange-even bad PR-if it did not. Now don't get me wrong-if Airbus made a 2nd tier product, I doubt BA would order a single Airbus. However, we all know (most of us anyway) that's not true. Prices-AFIK-are not significantly different for comparable products. So why not? And BA's order decision has wider political implications relating to the UK's ties (or friction) to the E.U. But that is non-av.
 
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ERJ170
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:54 am

Hmmm... where does the UK get more business from? Airbus or the US? Dollar for dollar/pound for pound/Euro for Euro.. which offers more funds to the UK? Airbus or the US?

I don't think politics will have much power.. but it will be very interesting to see what happens..
Aiming High and going far..
 
scotron11
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:56 am

BA will not order the 773. Why? If they have/had plans for that aircraft, they wouldn't have ordered 4 772s with 4 options.
 
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moo
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:01 am

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 41):
Hmmm... where does the UK get more business from? Airbus or the US? Dollar for dollar/pound for pound/Euro for Euro.. which offers more funds to the UK? Airbus or the US?

You are equating one aircraft manufacturer (Airbus) to an entire countries trade (US)? No contest.

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 40):
Let's face it; an order of this size has political implications. While, BA does not answer to Downing Street, it very well may come under pressure to step up and "get on board" with one of Europe's most important industrial manufacturing companies by gravitating away from Boeing products. And here's where I get flamed; there's nothing wrong with that.

There have been many bigger orders in the past with political implications, and yet theres absolutely no indication that BA has ever ordered based on politics since it was privatized - and even before then BA more often than not bought Boeing rather than home grown.

BA will order what it needs, nothing more and nothing less. If this means an all Boeing order, then so be it.

[Edited 2007-09-02 23:01:33]
 
PanAm1971
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:03 am

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 41):

Hmmm... where does the UK get more business from? Airbus or the US? Dollar for dollar/pound for pound/Euro for Euro.. which offers more funds to the UK? Airbus or the US?

I don't think politics will have much power.. but it will be very interesting to see what happens..


If it were a smaller order I would tend to agree with you. But this is a big big order. A lot of folks in Brussles (Paris and Berlin as well) will be looking to see where the national airline of an E.U. member with shaky ties to European project puts its' chips. It's at least partially political.
 
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ERJ170
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:07 am

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 44):
A lot of folks in Brussles (Paris and Berlin as well) will be looking to see where the national airline of an E.U. member with shaky ties to European project puts its' chips.

But it's not unheard of.. American buys American.. but US Airways buys European.. Same thing.. BMI bought Airbus.. so British Airways can buy Boeing.. problem solved.. Big grin
Aiming High and going far..
 
astuteman
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:28 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 19):
I just don't see where BA can use up to 29 A-380-800s. It does not have the range all year long to fly LHR to Hong Kong or Bankok

Do you mean this?

LHR-BKK is 5 177 Nm according to the great circle mapper.

According to the range-payload curves, the A388 is capable of c. 6 700 Nm at FULL PAYLOAD (85 tonnes), or 8 200 Nm with 525 pax (about 48 tonnes payload) - both these figures with 5% fuel load reserve PLUS 200Nm alternative divert.

That would seem to be more than adequate.....

Regards
 
TKV
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:36 am

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 44):
If it were a smaller order I would tend to agree with you. But this is a big big order. A lot of folks in Brussles (Paris and Berlin as well) will be looking to see where the national airline of an E.U. member with shaky ties to European project puts its' chips. It's at least partially political

 checkmark 
I Have posted the same several times, but my opinion was rejected with statements " BA is independent minded and immune to politics" As you say, BA needs the EU and the Government and they are certainly independent. but not 100% so as soon "national interests" are involved

My opinion is that BA normally would not order any A380, as they do not need in front of the B748i and also the improved B777. But the will order some due the political consideration. What will happen with A359 an 10 I am not sure, but such A380 order would allow them to chose freely, probably waiting what Boeing has to offer

TKV
 
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moo
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:53 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 47):
As you say, BA needs the EU and the Government and they are certainly independent. but not 100% so as soon "national interests" are involved

Is there *any* evidence of this, at all? BA has not ordered out of 'national interests' since Concorde, and even in its publicly owned days it was a major Boeing customer.

People keep saying BA will order out of national interest, wheres the evidence that this is true? Where are the past orders demonstrating this?
 
egnr
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RE: BA May Split Mega-order?

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:54 am

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 40):
Let's face it; an order of this size has political implications.

Possibly... It will likely be discussed between political representatives from the areas around Airbus's UK plants and the government.

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 40):
While, BA does not answer to Downing Street, it very well may come under pressure to step up and "get on board" with one of Europe's most important industrial manufacturing companies by gravitating away from Boeing products.

The UK government has a history of not getting really involved in the decision making process of any private company within the UK, or if it does get involved it is merely to give the impression that it is fighting for the workers' rights - see the debacles with the MG Rover collapse, the closure of Peugeot's Ryton plant in Coventry, the various train building companies within the UK, the shipyards, etc.

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 40):
Airbus employes a lot of people in the UK either directly or indirectly. That's likely to increase, not decrease.

The number of people employed within the UK in relation to Airbus's activities will likely decrease over time. Newer generation aircraft will rely on a far greater use of automated assembly than at present, and it is likely that more components will be made/assembled overseas rather than in the UK. The UK will then simply attach these assemblies to other parts.

Think of how Boeing is making the 787 in Seattle... I bet that far fewer people are needed to 'produce' each 787 in Seattle than were required to produce each 767.

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 40):
BA also gets various forms of assistence from the government.

What kind of assistance does the UK government grant BA? During the downturn after 9/11, BA received little or no government support. The UK's airports are all privately operated, so they cannot be granted preferable slots, etc. by the govt.

I honestly cannot recall any government assistance to British Airways PLC - but I stand to be corrected (after all, this forum is all about discussion).

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 40):
It only makes sense that BA would at least give half this order to Airbus.

BA will order the aircraft that best suits its needs, rather than make a fleet purchase decision based on the UK content of the aircraft to be ordered. The decision will also be based on what will offer the best return for the shareholders in terms of profitability; and of course what deal BA can get from the manufacturer.

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 40):
It would be strange-even bad PR-if it did not.

BA is not a PR machine a la Ryanair. The vast majority of airline passengers will not know/care what aircraft they are travelling on. The UK public will largely not care either... only those people working for Airbus or its suppliers will even really take note of the BA fleet decision. BA has never been shy about ordering Boeing products in the past when an Airbus alternative was available.

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 40):
Now don't get me wrong-if Airbus made a 2nd tier product, I doubt BA would order a single Airbus. However, we all know (most of us anyway) that's not true.

Both Boeing and Airbus make fantastic aircraft. In most cases, their competing models are extremely close in terms of performance, cost, etc. Luckily we have 2 very competetive manufacturers, who spur each other on with competition to develop ever better aircraft.

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 40):
Prices-AFIK-are not significantly different for comparable products.

I believe that there is a fairly significant difference in price between the 777 family and their directly competing A330/A340 counterparts, in favour of the Airbus aircraft (particularly A346 vs B77W). However, BA has always purchased the Boeing aircraft in preference to the Airbus, because it is the aircraft best suited to BA's needs.
7late7, A3latey, Sukhoi Superlate... what's going on?

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