zvezda
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QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:06 pm

http://washingtonceo.com/news-articl...splay/article/146/sizing-up-a.html

"Put Qantas in the more-capacity column. CEO Geoff Dixon spoke out strongly in July, saying in Seattle that his Australian airline wants a 350-seat Dash 10, and if Boeing can't deliver it, he won't hesitate to buy an Airbus A350."

Clearly the 787-10 will have nowhere near 350 seats -- even in a nominal configuration. Boeing should bite the bullet and develop a larger wing and six-wheel maingear for longer, heavier 787s including a 787-9ER, 787-10, and 787-11.
 
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seabosdca
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:18 pm

Hmmm... that uprated wing and gear would also work pretty well for a 788LR with 10500 nm still air range that could do SYD-LHR nonstop year-round with no compromises... despite the obvious economic challenges, I wonder if this, too, is in the back of Dixon's mind.  scratchchin 

I wonder if "Y3" could be nothing more than a heavier, longer set of airplanes with a 787 fuselage?
 
ikramerica
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:23 pm

That's what I said when he said it. He wants the 787-10 to be the 787-11 and he won't get it.

And he's demanding this plane despite having the 77W available to him much sooner, and having passed over it for years now. He's absolutely seeing his mistake in passing over the 77W as all the asian and arabian competition is putting it into service against him, and even those hosers from Canada, eh.

And when he pulls the trigger on the A350-1000 only to have Y3 come out a few years later, will he look foolish or genius? Neither, as he'll be long gone...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
zvezda
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:24 pm

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 1):
Hmmm... that uprated wing and gear would also work pretty well for a 788LR with 10500 nm still air range that could do SYD-LHR nonstop year-round with no compromises... despite the obvious economic challenges, I wonder if this, too, is in the back of Dixon's mind.

A 787-8LR optimized for SYD/MEL-LHR would have a larger wing (to accommodate more fuel) but would keep the four-wheel main gear of the 787-9.

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 1):
I wonder if "Y3" could be nothing more than a heavier, longer set of airplanes with a 787 fuselage?

That's what I would do if I were Boeing.
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:28 pm

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 1):
that uprated wing and gear would also work pretty well for a 788LR

The 789ER would have a 777LR mission profile with much better economics. A 788ER would simply have the same cost to run, but not the same space to put payload in.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
And when he pulls the trigger on the A350-1000 only to have Y3 come out a few years later, will he look foolish or genius? Neither, as he'll be long gone...

Doign a full development program to make a Y2.5 out of the 787 to me makes FAR more sense for Boeing than a full Y3 at this time. It covers the entire proven market space, and yet still gives Boing room to make a Y3 if a VLA is truely needed in the market such that its worth developing a whole new aircraft.
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:40 pm

Zvezda

Is there really anything new in this article not only discussed in July/August ??

I do not remember Bair's declaration that a B7810(R?) would be ready in service in 2013. But I remember having stated that it would be well before the A3510, 2013 means 2-3 years minimum!

Now: What Dixon and Clark want, i.e. a larger, extra long range aircraft, if this is also what BA, LH, AF, would mean enough market to develop such. But this would leave a large gap to the B789, in such case something similar as the originally planned B7810 would be needed, or a extended B789(R)

And again: I assume that Boeing will make decisions once the A3510 becomes ready to be ordered be
serious customers.

Quote:
Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 1):
I wonder if "Y3" could be nothing more than a heavier, longer set of airplanes with a 787 fuselage?

Quoting Zvezda
That's what I would do if I were Boeing

hen what's the difference between a B787-10/R and the Y3 ??

[Edited 2007-09-03 05:54:50]

[Edited 2007-09-03 05:55:49]
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:47 pm

I can only assume that Boeing does not have sufficient interest in the original lightweight -10 concept to justify launch, even given the relatively low cost of such a derivative. Or...Boeing already knows that an enlarged wing etc. are inevitable, and an eventual B787-10ER would orphan the -10, much as the B777-200ER eliminated demand for the -200...leaving the ROI on the lightweight -10 unacceptable. If that is the case, the logical path is to announce a six-wheel 787-10 now and get on with it.

The delay in making this decision is curious. Might it be that Boeing is mulling going forward with the four-wheel 787-10 available circa 2013, with a six-wheel -10ER a few years later? Even if that is the case, the choice Boeing faces seems not to be whether or not to build the -10ER, but rather whether to bother with the lightweight -10.
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sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:52 pm

The question is can GE increase thrust on the GEnx to make it possible to get the HGW 787-10 and HGW 787-11 off the ground

If they can and will do it, fine. ( If Boeing wants to spend another 5 Billion )

What are the odds the larger versions of the 787 will be more efficient than the A350 because the 787 is "less XWB" (less wide) while still carrying same amount of cargo? I'm thinking the same way the 737 is narrower / lighter than the A320 and slightly more efficient.

Will the possible greater effiency of the 787 be more attractive to airlines despite its smaller size?
 
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seabosdca
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:52 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 3):
That's what I would do if I were Boeing.

The next logical question, then, is exactly how far you can push that 787 fuselage. I know nothing at all about the limitations of the CFRP barrel technology, but I feel certain it would not be too difficult to go to 80 m. If the 20-foot stretch pattern is maintained, the 787-11 would be very nearly 75 m long; Stitch suggested in an earlier thread that the floor area of a 75 m 787-11 would be ~325 m^2. If the floor area of a 69 m 787-10 is ~291 m^2, then it appears the floor area of (say) a 78 m 787-11 would be ~342 m^2.

That is significantly bigger than the floor area of a 77W or A35J, but is much smaller than the floor area of a 748, let alone an A388. If Boeing based its future large-aircraft plans on the 787 fuselage, would it 1) try to push the a/c beyond 80 m and get airports to go along, 2) simply concede the VLA market to Airbus, 3) try to squeeze yet more efficiency out of the 747, or 4) eventually develop a new VLA of some sort?
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:01 pm

Quoting SeaBosDca (Reply 8):
The next logical question, then, is exactly how far you can push that 787 fuselage. I know nothing at all about the limitations of the CFRP barrel technology, but I feel certain it would not be too difficult to go to 80 m.

80 meters is not a problem for the structure, but would be a problem making turns on the taxiways and most airports don't have gates that can take an 80 meter long aircraft because the taxiways are a bit nearer to the terminals than that.

Quoting SeaBosDca (Reply 8):
Stitch suggested in an earlier thread that the floor area of a 75 m 787-11 would be ~325 m^2.

Yes, 324.6 sq meters.

Quoting SeaBosDca (Reply 8):
If the floor area of a 69 m 787-10 is ~291 m^2, then it appears the floor area of (say) a 78 m 787-11 would be ~342 m^2.

No, 352.6 sq meters, assuming as many frames as possible are added without exceeding 80 meters. That's roughly the size of the 747-200.
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:25 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 9):
No, 352.6 sq meters, assuming as many frames as possible are added without exceeding 80 meters. That's roughly the size of the 747-200.

One must note that the 747 has a good bit of wasted space, and the A380 has a hell of alot of wasted space. So I think a 787-11 with enough MTOW would absolutely dominate the 747 replacement market, and honestly end the sales of the A380 for more than just ultra luxury premium routes. The seat count might not seem to say this, but its economics would be devistating. Imagine trying to fight something that lets your competition offer more frequency, and far lower ticket prices... and still bank more money than you.
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:35 pm

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 10):
I think a 787-11 with enough MTOW would absolutely dominate the 747 replacement market, and honestly end the sales of the A380 for more than just ultra luxury premium routes. The seat count might not seem to say this, but its economics would be devistating (sic). Imagine trying to fight something that lets your competition offer more frequency, and far lower ticket prices... and still bank more money than you.

Yes, but don't forget about the A350-1000 which will have similar economics.
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:49 pm

Boeing either needs to get serious and make some newer 787 versions to replace the 777, or make a composite and updated 777. But they need to move fast. They need to have it out by at least 2014 when the A350 starts becoming available, because right now the A350 is a good solution for a 777 sized plane but with 787 technology. So boeing needs to step up and do something before they lose a bunch of orders, i'm sure it would be expensive to revamp the 777 into composite like the 787, but in the end they would make money from all the current 777 customers that will need new planes. I just don't know why boeing is moving so slow with this
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:53 pm

Same as they wanted a 707-138B many years ago, history repeats???
 
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seabosdca
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:26 pm

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 10):
So I think a 787-11 with enough MTOW would absolutely dominate the 747 replacement market, and honestly end the sales of the A380 for more than just ultra luxury premium routes. The seat count might not seem to say this, but its economics would be devistating.



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 11):
Yes, but don't forget about the A350-1000 which will have similar economics.

Will it? If a 787-11 did go all the way to almost 80 m with 352.6 m^2 floor area, it will be quite significantly larger than the 73.9 m A350-1000 we're expecting (by a margin similar to the difference between the A350-1000 and 787-9, if my math is still right at this late hour). Given that it would still be a 787 stretch, I'd expect the extra-long 787-11 to have better per-seat economics than an A350-1000 -- in fact, probably more like those of an "A350-1100" of similar length.

I'm still interested in comparing such a bird to VLAs. Given the small size of the market that requires VLAs, could a VLA possibly be designed that would 1) give its maker a decent RoI and 2) present a compelling economic case when compared with a 787-11 or A350-1100? If not, what would airlines do in the few markets that undeniably require VLAs? Suffer with uneconomic A380s? Simply reduce capacity and let prices go through the roof?
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:45 pm

I say stretch the 787-10 to meet the -11 capacity. Add new wing, six-wheel truck etc. Develop 787-9LR with new wing and truck as well. Do Y3 as a T7NG with a CFRP tube and at least 40 in. wider. (3-6-3, 3-3-3, 2-3-2) 777-800 in the 375+/- cap. and the 777-900 @ 475+/- cap. I would say power units would be the big issue here.

And YES, Say goodbye to the 747-8I after the launch of Y3.  tombstone 

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ZKNBX
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 4:40 pm

Surely a 787-11 would need taller landing gear?
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:25 pm

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 16):

Surely a 787-11 would need taller landing gear?

when you do a new wing, you can stuff a good bit of your stretch in the wingbox, thus making the rear overhang a smaller % of the total length. Add in the ability to "tiptoe" your MLG you also get some more AOA on takeoff. However,if Boeing does a "1/2" new 787 to get the proper MTOW then yes, new MLG will be used to raise the plane such that trent XWB, and the GE equivalent can be fitted (or even larger engines depending). I would expect all three to be used on a 787-11 if more than 75m. The wingbox to get the wing area without the wings looking like they were stolen off a U2 spyplane, the tiptoe function as its very "cheap" in terms of tradeoffs. Taller landing gear? oh yah, got to have that for the engines.
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:41 pm

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 1):
I wonder if "Y3" could be nothing more than a heavier, longer set of airplanes with a 787 fuselage?

QF cant wait that long though

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
He's absolutely seeing his mistake in passing over the 77W as all the asian and arabian competition is putting it into service against him,

Dixon didnt buy the 77W as it doesnt suit QF. It suits most airlines but not QF (due to Australias position and passenger numbers on high demand routes. eg SYD-LAX. It works for ANZ as they have smaller amounts of passengers on low demand routes)

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
and even those hosers from Canada

Atleast Canada is sending Australia some 777's. It'll be good spotting

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
And he's demanding this plane despite having the 77W available to him much sooner, and having passed over it for years now.

77W is 'old' technology compared to the 787 and A350 and with the amount of profit QF has made recently they will have a bit of money to, lets say, make Boeing work faster

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
And when he pulls the trigger on the A350-1000 only to have Y3 come out a few years later, will he look foolish or genius? Neither, as he'll be long gone...

True but A350-1000 is available before it and in the end 4 years earlier service compared to slighly lower seat per mile cost. They will be happy with the A350-1000 and they could probably still now get a good price if they order large and mention something about pulling out of the A380 (though I doubt they ever will)
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 8:04 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Thread starter):
"Put Qantas in the more-capacity column. CEO Geoff Dixon spoke out strongly in July, saying in Seattle that his Australian airline wants a 350-seat Dash 10, and if Boeing can't deliver it, he won't hesitate to buy an Airbus A350."

It looks like QF will replace the rest of the 747's with the A350-1000.

If the A350R had a 9500 mile range, could it fly LHR - SYD year round with 200 passengers? I doubt it.
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 9:36 pm

Quoting TKV (Reply 5):
Now: What Dixon and Clark want, i.e. a larger, extra long range aircraft, if this is also what BA, LH, AF, would mean

I think that this is what all these airlines want it would be the perfect A340/B777 replacement. This is what those airlines want. If Boeing does not come up with an aircraft like that I can see AF, BA and QF operating a mixed fleet of 787s and A350s and LH and EK going for the A350 only.
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G5
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:43 pm

Dixon isn't stupid, but his sabre rattling is getting a bit old. Threatening to buy the A350 which, BTW, hasn't even left the 'conversation stage' yet is not going to get Boeing to move any faster on the 787-10/11. If he realizes now that he missed out on the 777, perhaps approaching Boeing about becoming a launch customer for Y3 and effectively shaping it's design for QF's benefit wouldn't be a bad idea. It's likely Boeing would try to make Y3 fairly compatible with the 787 anyway. I just think this would be a more productive way to get what he wants out of Boeing rather than to start threatening to buy the competition.
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:06 pm

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 18):
Dixon didnt buy the 77W as it doesnt suit QF. It suits most airlines but not QF (due to Australias position and passenger numbers on high demand routes. eg SYD-LAX. It works for ANZ as they have smaller amounts of passengers on low demand routes)

How does a 787-11 or A350-1000 "suit" QF but not the 77W? Why does the 77W suit the competitors of QF but not QF? Why is the 77W "old technology" for QF and yet NZ just ordered it, AC just started taking theirs, and SQ starting taking delivery of theirs less than a year ago?

It is quite obvious that the 77W did suit QF after all, and Dixon missed the boat. Now it's a question of waiting for 8 years for the A350-1000 or 787-11, or 3 years for the 77W he missed out on, and justifying his mistake to the world by saying the 77W wasn't good enough. It's a hollow argument when you see other airlines replacing the 744s with 77Ws and making money doing so...
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seabosdca
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:15 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 19):
If the A350R had a 9500 mile range, could it fly LHR - SYD year round with 200 passengers? I doubt it.

If you mean 9500 miles, no way. I expect you mean 9500 nm. The 772LR has still air range of 9400 nm with full pax and QF already concluded that the 772LR is not good enough for economic year-round ops, so 9500 nm is probably not good enough either. I expect an aircraft with 10500 nm still air range with full pax is required. I speculated above that Boeing might build a 787-8LR that could perform the mission; Zvezda thought a 787-9LR more likely.

As no one has yet speculated about HGW variants of the A350-1000 or any A350-1100, it's not as clear where Airbus would get the foundation for an A350-900LR. If they did eventually build a 350-1000R or a 350-1100, it would be just as easy for Airbus to also build a niche SYD-LHR aircraft. Right now, though, with A350-1000 and A350-900R EIS so far in the future, it looks like Boeing could get to this market first, if it wants. There is almost certainly not enough room in the market for two players.

It's an interesting exercise to think about what potentially viable markets would necessitate a 787LR or A350LR. Besides SYD-LHR and MEL-LHR, I can think of AKL-LHR, LAX-JNB, GRU-NRT and GRU-PVG -- not many others are coming to mind.
 
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Stitch
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:32 pm

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 23):
As no one has yet speculated about HGW variants of the A350-1000 or any A350-1100, it's not as clear where Airbus would get the foundation for an A350-900LR.

The A350-900R would have identical MTOW and engines to the A350-1000, it would just trade fuel weight for payload weight (since it is physically smaller).

I'm torn between "Y2.5" and "Y3". "Y2.5" has a ton of benefits to it:

  • Near-complete commonality with the rest of the 787 family, which means one pool of pilots, mechanics, and spares;
  • Based on (by EIS) proven technology, so airlines know what they're gettimg;
  • Complete flexibility to tailor the plane to the load on a day-to-day, to say nothing of seasonal, basis;
  • ~2015 EIS instead of a ~2020;
  • Cheaper to acquire since development and production costs will leverage those of the existing 787;
  • Bit higher CASM then Y3, but better RASM.


Y3's only real benefit is that it can be made bigger, and I'm not sure how much of a benefit that will be, now. Boeing launching the 787 screwed up Airbus' long-range strategy, and now Airbus is returning the favor with the A350. A "Y2.5" will be more then close enough to the A350 to hold it's own in sales, and that will be good enough for Boeing, I am sure.
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:44 pm

My take on it: QF (among others: NZ, VS, UA, NW, possibly BA) will launch Y3-8ER with SYD-LHR year-round capability and Y3-9 as a direct 747-400/-400ER replacement.

787-11 will not happen. 787-10 with around 7,800nm range - a direct replacement for 777-200ER will be the end of a line. Entire 777-200LR/-300ER replacement programme on Boeings side will fall under Y3s wing.
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zvezda
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:58 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 22):
How does a 787-11 or A350-1000 "suit" QF but not the 77W?

By have an OEW 80,000 lbs. lighter.

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 23):
I speculated above that Boeing might build a 787-8LR that could perform the mission; Zvezda thought a 787-9LR more likely.

No, my point was that a 787-8LR optimized for SYD/MEL-LHR would not need six-wheel bogeys, but could use the maingear from the 787-9. A 787-9 is probably too large for SYD/MEL-LHR nonstop services as both loads and yields would need to be consistently high.
 
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:59 pm

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 23):
Right now, though, with A350-1000 and A350-900R EIS so far in the future, it looks like Boeing could get to this market first, if it wants.



Quote:
Airbus' counterstroke to the Dreamliner is a bigger (average 314 seats), more technologically advanced, fuel-efficient A350, an "Xtra Wide-Body" plane planned for rollout in 2013. The goal is to compete with the Dreamliner for new business while rendering the economics of Boeing's transoceanic 777 obsolete. Boeing is already headed for a larger plane, the 787-10, a potential 320-seater, primarily because of demand from airlines like Dubai-based Emirates and Australia's Qantas Airways.

Boeing says it isn't sweating the A350. First, it has a five-year technology lead over the A350-900. "When all the dust settles, the important thing is that we keep progressing," says Bair. "They will figure it out, but we will be five and six years into knowing what we know and be that much better at it."

The spacing between rollouts of its 787 models also gives Boeing a slight advantage. Boeing plans to have about two to three years between its 787-8, 787-9 and 787-10, in order to have time to work out any bugs that might arise during test flights. But Airbus will have only one year between its 350-900, 350-800 and 350-1000 launches, meaning it has to be closer to flawless, a status it clearly hasn't reached with the A380.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1657811-2,00.html
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TeamAmerica
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 12:14 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 26):
No, my point was that a 787-8LR optimized for SYD/MEL-LHR would not need six-wheel bogeys, but could use the maingear from the 787-9. A 787-9 is probably too large for SYD/MEL-LHR nonstop services as both loads and yields would need to be consistently high.

Do you have any feeling for the number of aircraft Boeing would need to sell in order to make development of a 787-8LR worthwhile? QF may want them, and BA also...but who else? Is that sufficient demand?

There appears to be many possibilities for 787 derivatives, but most would also appear to be niche aircraft. How big does a niche market need to be to prompt Boeing to serve it? We see them building the 783 with a demand of about 50...is that a guide?

Sorry...I have many questions and few answers on this topic! smile 
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seabosdca
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 12:39 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
The A350-900R would have identical MTOW and engines to the A350-1000, it would just trade fuel weight for payload weight (since it is physically smaller).

Sorry if I was unclear; I was speculating about an "A350-900LR" that would have longer range than the A350-900R, as the -900R probably cannot do SYD-LHR economically year-round (its range is too short, and it may be too big). Airbus has never mentioned (and A.net has not speculated much about  Silly) an A350-1000R or A350-1100 that could provide the foundation for an ultra-ultra-long-range A350-900.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 25):
My take on it: QF (among others: NZ, VS, UA, NW, possibly BA) will launch Y3-8ER with SYD-LHR year-round capability and Y3-9 as a direct 747-400/-400ER replacement.

Will the efficiency of such an aircraft be sufficient to overcome what looks to me like volumetric inefficiency in any roughly round fuselage bigger than that of a 787 or A350? Zvezda says that an 80 m 787-11 would have almost the floor area of a 742, which is certainly big enough to replace a 744. What is less clear to me is what, if anything, Boeing would do about the 748/A380 space if it built a "Y2.5."
 
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Stitch
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 1:03 am

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 29):
Sorry if I was unclear; I was speculating about an "A350-900LR" that would have longer range than the A350-900R, as the -900R probably cannot do SYD-LHR economically year-round (its range is too short, and it may be too big).

Well you can always fill a -900R to max fuel volume, offloading payload as necessary to stay within MTOW. If that is not enough, then you just keep offloading payload until you make it work.
 
ikramerica
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 1:21 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 26):
By have an OEW 80,000 lbs. lighter.

Well, by that logic, nobody should be buying any planes now because the future will bring lighter planes. Even the 787 will be replaced by a lighter aircraft some day. Just keep flying your old planes until then.

It's the same argument people use to not buy a new computer. Something better will come along. but if you need the horsepower now, you buy it now. It's not just about what is available in the future, but what you are using now, and QF is flying 744s with barely enough legs for some of their routes, and 744ERs which give up cargo (space and weight) to make the trips. They have old 767s, under speced A330s, and maintenance hungry 743s.

Again, QF should already be flying the 77W. 2005 delivery would have suited them, but they decided against it, instead pursuing a sale of the airline. That fell through, now they are stuck with a confused fleet and subsidiary roadmap.

Other carriers who signed on for the 787 are also taking 77Ws, and could take A350-1000s in 8 years, but for QF, they missed out on 10 years of having the 77W in their fleet.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
khobar
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:21 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 28):
There appears to be many possibilities for 787 derivatives, but most would also appear to be niche aircraft. How big does a niche market need to be to prompt Boeing to serve it? We see them building the 783 with a demand of about 50...is that a guide?

Remember - Japan was/is a heavy investor in the 787 project, so those 50 for ANA may not really be a good guide - it might read "50 plus a percentage of development risk" in order to get Boeing to pull the trigger.

Boeing is also weighing the benefits of letting Qantas go to Airbus for the A350. Boeing has said it would not produce a half-assed variant just to get an order as that would hurt them in the long run. So Qantas and Emirates and any other airline can jump up and down foaming at the mouth all they want - Boeing is not going to pull the trigger until Boeing is ready to.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:54 am

Quoting Khobar (Reply 32):
Remember - Japan was/is a heavy investor in the 787 project, so those 50 for ANA may not really be a good guide - it might read "50 plus a percentage of development risk" in order to get Boeing to pull the trigger.

I understand. What I'm looking for is some feel as to where Boeing's tipping point lies. They are having difficulty deciding what the B787-10 will be...light or heavy, or both. That tells me that potential customer commitments for each design are not large enough to be decisive. My question is how large a commitment would be decisive?

Commitments for 50 with realistic prospects for future sales to other customers certainly sounds like a winner to me. I can only guess that they have nowhere near that many on the table.

Another guess: with sales of the 788 and 789 filling the order book for years to come, Boeing may feel no urgency to add models to the line. Any sales of a 787-10 would be just one less -8 or -9 sold. I certainly hope that is not the mindset at Boeing, but it's possible that they are content to wait.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 3:14 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
That's what I said when he said it. He wants the 787-10 to be the 787-11 and he won't get it.

And he's demanding this plane despite having the 77W available to him much sooner, and having passed over it for years now. He's absolutely seeing his mistake in passing over the 77W as all the asian and arabian competition is putting it into service against him, and even those hosers from Canada, eh.

And when he pulls the trigger on the A350-1000 only to have Y3 come out a few years later, will he look foolish or genius? Neither, as he'll be long gone...

 checkmark  checkmark  checkmark  The thread could have finished right there .

The attempt to talk up something like a 787-11 every two months or so has become a little boring.  duck 
 
catdaddy63
Posts: 212
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 3:24 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 33):
Another guess: with sales of the 788 and 789 filling the order book for years to come, Boeing may feel no urgency to add models to the line. Any sales of a 787-10 would be just one less -8 or -9 sold. I certainly hope that is not the mindset at Boeing, but it's possible that they are content to wait.

Exactly, until 787 production is running smoothly and a decision is made on a second line, I don't see B introducing any new versions. With A350 not even at firm design, and the 777 order backlog growing, they don't have a lot of incentive at this time to lock in new models. Even if a decision to produce a -10 or -11 isn't made for 2 more years, B should still be able to have it in production at a decent rate before the A350 EIS. Airlines are always looking for "ideal" aircraft and sharing those needs with the manufacturers. This is nothing new.
 
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ER757
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 3:55 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 12):
I just don't know why boeing is moving so slow with this

Could be that most of their enginerring talent is currently tied up with the existing 787 versions, the 748 and a 737 replacement, which I think would be of more urgency at present. The 737 market is much, much larger than the market for a streatch of the 787. As some have pointed out, there's a limit to what can be done with an existing family. A 787-11 would more likey end up being a 777 replacement and be designated as an entirely new model (Y3 for lack of a better number at present). I don't think producing an aircraft with the specs Dixon wants is as simple as slapping a 6-wheel bogie and a couple extra barrels to a 789.
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:14 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 12):
I just don't know why boeing is moving so slow with this

This question has been asked many times in similar threads , simply put they have nothing to measure their response against.It would be like chasing a rainbow. When A. start providing carriers with firm proposals with guaranteed weights and performance they will know what they have to do. Not before then.
 
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Stitch
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:32 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 33):
Another guess: with sales of the 788 and 789 filling the order book for years to come, Boeing may feel no urgency to add models to the line. Any sales of a 787-10 would be just one less -8 or -9 sold. I certainly hope that is not the mindset at Boeing, but it's possible that they are content to wait.

Some assume that because Boeing has not yet launched a 787-10, whatever Boeing is offering is "unacceptable" to the airlines.

What might be happening is that with 787 production filled so far out, the 787HGW family and the A350 family are likely to come out simultaneously. So like the A388/748I conundrum, airlines may very well be waiting to see how the 787 shakes out in service and how the A350's development progresses. They may like what Boeing has to offer for the 787-10. but they may be worried about availability vis-a-vis the A350. Yet, they may be worried about if the A350 will EIS on schedule and to spec. So they're likely just sitting on their hands, taking A330s and 777s in the interim, as necessary.
 
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flylku
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 5:36 am

Quoting Zvezda (Thread starter):
Clearly the 787-10 will have nowhere near 350 seats -- even in a nominal configuration. Boeing should bite the bullet and develop a larger wing and six-wheel maingear for longer, heavier 787s including a 787-9ER, 787-10, and 787-11.

Relax, sit back and watch. Boeing may well take the lessons learned on the 787 and (like the 737 and 747 before) introduce a 777 Next Generation (NG) product that incorporates those lessons in a higher capacity product. In the mean time Airbus may well garner some significant sales. They are, after all, worthy competitors.
...are we there yet?
 
ebj1248650
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 6:20 am

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 1):
I wonder if "Y3" could be nothing more than a heavier, longer set of airplanes with a 787 fuselage?

Y3 is likely to be a lot more airplane but with the advances learned from the 787, and others, to make it something in a class by itself.
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
sh0rtybr0wn
Posts: 373
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 6:20 am

All the people who want to see Boeing launch 9 million other 787 variants next week should relax,.

What if they did announce the 787-11 Wednesday? Then they'll have more than 1100 787s on order out untill 2018.

Boeing can still obtain those orders even if they wait untill 2009 to anounce new 787 variations.

It makes zero business sense for Boeing to reveal further 787 family plans while the A350 is still not 100% defined.
 
CJAContinental
Posts: 343
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 7:19 am

As much as boeing will not want QF to go order the A350-900, A350-1000, I think that Boeing are concerned about hurting sales for the 777-300ER, which has recently received promising orders from Virgin Blue and TAM.

I think Boeing will develop the 787-10, and 787-11 (Perhaps Y3), though I do not think they will do this soon.

If Emirates, and others request the aircraft, then perhaps they would do it sooner, as this would compensate for potential loss of 777-300ER sales.
Work Hard/Fly Right.
 
baw716
Posts: 1462
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 7:37 am

A 787-11? Not going to happen. The 787-10 is iffy as it is.

If QF wants that kind of A/C, then perhaps it should consider the 772 or 773LR...or wait for the next generation of Boeing aircraft in say, 20 years. QF got Boeing to build a 747-400ER for them; which few other carriers have purchased. While QF can certainly say what it would like to have, to tell Boeing that if they don't get what they want they'll buy Airbus...especially as big a Boeing customer as they are and as much as Boeing has done for them, Boeing may just call their bluff. Maybe.

baw716
David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
 
HughesAirwest
Posts: 49
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 8:00 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 4):
to make a Y3 if a VLA is truely needed in the market such that its worth developing a whole new aircraft.

Boeing has stated that Y3 will be a T7 replacement and not an entry into the VLA market. Also, Boeing may do an improved T7 while waiting to launch Y3. There are still lessoned to be learned here from Y2 launch through EIS.

QF is trying to save face over having not purchased the 77W or even the 77L early on. Both good ac and would fit well into QF's route structure. It is never too late for QF to purchase the 77W/77L, the A350-1000 and B787-10/11 will not be available for at least another 6 years. At which time I believe Y3 will be launched or shortly there after say 2016ish.
"One man practicing Teamwork is far better than fifty preaching it."
 
zvezda
Topic Author
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 8:42 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 28):
Do you have any feeling for the number of aircraft Boeing would need to sell in order to make development of a 787-8LR worthwhile? QF may want them, and BA also...but who else? Is that sufficient demand?

Is that assuming that Boeing will anyway be producing a larger 787 wing for larger 787s? If so, then the development cost would be mainly the cost of certification. Based on just the 787-8 and 787-9, Boeing could develop a 540,000 lbs 787-8ER for not much more than the certification costs.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 31):
Well, by that logic, nobody should be buying any planes now because the future will bring lighter planes. Even the 787 will be replaced by a lighter aircraft some day. Just keep flying your old planes until then.

It's the same argument people use to not buy a new computer. Something better will come along. but if you need the horsepower now, you buy it now. It's not just about what is available in the future, but what you are using now, and QF is flying 744s with barely enough legs for some of their routes, and 744ERs which give up cargo (space and weight) to make the trips. They have old 767s, under speced A330s, and maintenance hungry 743s.

Airlines have sophisticated models for calculating the benefits of buying a new model versus continuing to operating their existing fleet. QF calculated that the 777-300ER would not have been a good deal for them at the price Boeing wanted. They calculated that buying 787s was a better deal.
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1771
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 8:47 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
when he pulls the trigger on the A350-1000 only to have Y3 come out a few years later

If the implication is that Y3 will present the same (or greater) step-change from the A350-1000 as the A350-1000 will from the 77W, you may be mistaken. Where do you see the key performance improvements that would make Y3 (by definition of 'Yellowstone', a tube-and-wings aircraft) so much more economical?

Based on the numbers I've run, reasonable Y3 designs will make a fantastic aircraft, but buying A350-1000's will likely still make sense after Y3 hits the market.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 7):
The question is can GE increase thrust on the GEnx to make it possible to get the HGW 787-10 and HGW 787-11 off the ground

They have already been asked this question for the A350-1000.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 10):
the A380 has a hell of alot of wasted space

Where was that again?

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 40):
Y3 is likely to be a lot more airplane but with the advances learned from the 787, and others, to make it something in a class by itself.

Again, I'd like to see what breakthrough(s) you believe will cause Y3 to be in a 'class by itself'. There is evidently a real tendency to see this aircraft as the second coming, when the bottom line is that it will most likely be another large CFRP tube-and-wings single-deck twin engine aircraft. A damn nice one at that, but hardly a 'class by itself'.
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
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RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 8:48 am

Quoting Zvezda (Thread starter):


Clearly the 787-10 will have nowhere near 350 seats -- even in a nominal configuration. Boeing should bite the bullet and develop a larger wing and six-wheel maingear for longer, heavier 787s including a 787-9ER, 787-10, and 787-11.

I still say that we have no idea what configuration QF wants those 350 seats in. Their press releases for the original 787 models referred to seating capacities well above what 3 class could be expected to cover even in 9Y.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
hloutweg
Posts: 163
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2007 10:57 am

RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 9:31 am

It seams like Mr. Dixon would love to have wide-body aircraft commonality from the lowest to the highest end of the market, being that he has already committed to a 787 fleet. Boeing's partial inability to provide the product that would do just that, will make Qantas buy from the competition and absorb the cost of having two different aircraft for long-haul missions with certain bitterness. I think, Qantas will come to a decision favoring Airbus if Boeing hesitates just enough on redeveloping the 787 for a plane of 350 seats. Let's have in mind that the fight for the last Qantas order was bitter close, according to the airline.
In Varietate Concordia
 
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sunrisevalley
Posts: 5392
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 3:26 am

RE: QF Want A 787-11

Tue Sep 04, 2007 9:52 am

Quoting HughesAirwest (Reply 44):
QF is trying to save face over having not purchased the 77W or even the 77L early on.

At about this time QF would have faced a revolt by institutional investors had they purchased new aircraft. A now deceased list member with strong connections to the Australian financial markets ( what was his name ???) warned that it was a none starter. Dixon and the QF board were not in control of the situation at that time. They needed to do some serious work on improving their gross margin.

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