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TeamAmerica
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:38 am

Quoting PM (Reply 42):
It's impossible to avoid suspecting that it is rooted at least partly in the kind of prejudices and preconceptions that reflect pretty poorly on those who hold them.

 talktothehand I disagree. It is entirely possible to read this thread without accusing the posters of prejudice. Your post paints A.Net with a pretty broad brush, and I don't think it is deserved. Skimming through all the posts above...I just don't see the racism you suggest. Perhaps you should point out an example and address it directly, because what you wrote here...

Quoting PM (Reply 42):
I think it goes something like this.

Thirty years ago these clowns were riding around on camels and living in tents. How dare they now aspire to own and operate airlines that fly huge fleets of the most modern airliners all over the place and offer award-winning levels of service?! There is a natural order of things. Airlines like Emirates and Qatar challenge and risk overturning that natural order.

...is a strawman. Nobody said this. no 

Quoting PM (Reply 45):
Well, Pan Am are long gone - but not because they over-estimated their need for VLAs.

Many people would argue that PanAm did indeed overestimate the need for VLA's...but that would derail this thread.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:51 am

Quoting PM (Reply 50):
And, I believe I'm right in saying, more than half its passengers are not British.

I can assure you that EK is carrying nowhere near close to 50% local passengers....


On what basis do you dismiss PA's 747 order as irrelevant in their downfall? PA tried to be all things to all people aroudn the world and failed. Their overambitious order was certainly part of being out of touch with market realities... just like EK is now.


The UK has the world's 6th largest economy.... the UAE is 57th. Kazakhstan has a larger economy than the UAE's. And the UAE's population is less than 10% of the UK's, and 1/4th the size of Kazakhstan's.

All it takes is a little attention to something besides a.net to realize that the Middle East is trying desperately to be recognized as something besides an oil supplier to the world after years of being dominated by foreign powers. Osama says what alot of Arabs believe but won't say - just convert to Islam and we'll all be happy. Which means that the real difference between the UK and the UAE is that the UK allows people of all persuasions to live there while the UAE is just one of many Middle East countries that based their existence on Islam - which has little if any tolerance for any other religion.

So, it isn't at ll far-fetched to see why EK wants to dominate the industry and that they are willing to defy every market indicator to try amd make their plan work.
 
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:12 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 51):
It is entirely possible to read this thread without accusing the posters of prejudice.

Well, I could start with this choice example:

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 14):
the arabian peninsula right now is one big pissing match, and you might be right that Clark was under pressure from "on high" to make clear that Dubai is just as important as China, and will be in the future

But this is far from the first thread where the rapid growth of EK has occasioned splenetic outbursts and there is often a clear undertone that would not be there if it was AA or BA or LH or SQ who were planning a whopping fleet.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 51):
Many people would argue that PanAm did indeed overestimate the need for VLA's

Well, they'd have a hard job making it stick. Pan Am went under 21 years after launching 747 flights and at a time when airlines were falling over themselves to get their hands on the latest VLA, the 744. I don't usually care to quote Wikipedia but...

"In his book, Pan Am: An Aviation Legend, Barnaby Conrad contends that the collapse of Pan Am was a combination of corporate mismanagement, government indifference to protecting its prime international carrier, and flawed regulatory policy."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_American_World_Airways
 
qantas787
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:22 pm

PanAm collapsed because it had a bucket load of 747's and no domestic feed to fill them.
G'day
 
kaitak
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:35 pm

When is the new DXB airport opening? I thought it was 2009-10. When will the current order for EK A380s (55) going to be completed? Not until well into the next decade, so why not order now? By the time the first of the new batch is in service, the new DXB airport should be well into service?

Also, in relation to the 747-8P, it looks as if EK is still arguing with Boeing on the size of its 747-8 - it still seems to want a shorter, long range model.

http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Aviation/10152179.html

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 47):
This is the part people don't get. No nation of any size will allow EK to destroy their flag carriers. For EK to succeed with 250-300 large jets, they will need to basically dominate markets to the point that other carriers fail.

The protectionist nature of national legislatures (including in the USA) will get the better of them, and while it's fun to pretend EK is just a free market supported airline right now, when push comes to shove and it means the loss of thousands of jobs in other countries, those who negotiate open skies treaties will no longer take the "isn't EK and their world domination dream so cute" attitude anymore.

If EK becomes too dominant, watch Dubai open skies agreements evaporate. And when they do, who loses the most? Hell, even EY would benefit if nations determined EK was too predatory and restricted access and growth.

I think there's a lot of truth in what you say and we've already seen Germany limit (or threaten to limit?) EK's access to that country. The thing is, though, which takes precedence, the airline or the economy? The days of flag carriers in Europe are over and if EK can delivery more growth than the national carrier does, then I'd say let EK do the job. I'm sure govts will be more interested in the bottom line than on what their flag carrier does, particularly if their flag carrier is not one of the more efficient ones. However, what you say may very well be correct in relation to India.

To take an example, our own dear Aer Lingus has a route to DXB, apparently soon to be axed, and frankly made a mess of it; bad schedules, inconsistent service, poor marketing etc; now, who would have done a better job and consequently, delivered more visitors, made exports more competitive (due to being able to feed into EK's international network from DXB?) ... Emirates, of course. Do you think the Irish govt - now only a minority shareholder in EI - will put EI's needs above those of the economy as a whole? Fat chance. I'm sure the same goes for other countries.

I'll admit talk of 110 A380s makes me a bit nervous about EK and although I don't like the word megalomaniac (largely because I can never spell it!), this sniffs a bit of that, BUT ... the truth of the NOW is that EK has one of the world's most efficient hubs, with links to some crucially important economies. The advantage of a hub at DXB is that all of Europe and most of Asia is within reach of medium sized widebodies (A330 and above), which means that markets which were/will never be linked by direct air services can now be linked through DXB (and admittedly DOH and AUH as well). With the growth of the Chinese and Indian economies, competitive access to these markets is of huge importance to European economies and if EK can deliver this better than their carriers, well and good.
 
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:37 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 52):
On what basis do you dismiss PA's 747 order as irrelevant in their downfall?

Oh , where do I start?!

1. Because they placed their order 25 years before they went bust.
2. Because they made lots of other mistakes like neglecting to build a large domestic base.
3. Because their service levels stagnated while others were improving. (Yes, I flew Pan Am 747s in 1987 and they were rubbish.)
4. Because they were unlucky (suffering two fatal terrorist attacks in three years).
5. Because scores of other airlines ordered hundreds of 747s during the same timeframe and prospered. (BA have bought 94 747s directly from Boeing and JAL have bought 108!)
6. ...and because this guy says so!

"In his book, Pan Am: An Aviation Legend, Barnaby Conrad contends that the collapse of Pan Am was a combination of corporate mismanagement, government indifference to protecting its prime international carrier, and flawed regulatory policy."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_American_World_Airways

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 52):
Their overambitious order was certainly part of being out of touch with market realities... just like EK is now.

Yep, EK just stumble from one crisis to another...  Yeah sure

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 52):
And the UAE's population is less than 10% of the UK's, and 1/4th the size of Kazakhstan's.

And, strangely, it's almost exactly the same as Singapore's. Your point is?

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 52):
Kazakhstan has a larger economy than the UAE's.

But a somewhat smaller airline. Where are you going with this stream of consciousness ramble?

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 52):
the Middle East is trying desperately

"trying desperately"? Might I reword that as "...is wisely reinvesting the money it is making from oil..."?

Meanwhile:

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 51):
I just don't see the racism you suggest. Perhaps you should point out an example and address it directly



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 52):
Osama says what alot of Arabs believe but won't say - just convert to Islam and we'll all be happy.



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 52):
the UK allows people of all persuasions to live there while the UAE is just one of many Middle East countries that based their existence on Islam - which has little if any tolerance for any other religion.

I think someone has just provided the example your were requesting...  Wink

In other words, Mr. WorldTraveler (though it sounds like you haven't yet been to the UAE), we should see the rise of EK not as a simple tale of capital and market forces but as a sinister plot by Muslims to force their religion on everyone else?

I rest my case.  Sad
 
474218
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:43 pm

I have a question, if Emirates wants to double their A380 order what is stopping them?
 
MCIGuy
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:58 pm

Over capacity is overcapacity, regardless of geography. This is a risky venture precisely because of the geography involved. Imagine if there's a major war in the Gulf region in the next 5-10 years. Imagine Iran is involved and lobs a chemical warhead onto DXB for being a US ally. I don't want to sound paranoid and I'm not EVEN saying these things will happen. What I am saying is that a lot can happen in only a few years, especially in that region of the world.
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:59 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 22):
But that's not what Clarke is talking about here. He's talking about room at DXB. Is EK only going to lease A380s to airlines that fly to DXB?

Good point, but I hypothesize that if they ordered more than 55 A380's some would be for lease purposes. Just a hypothesis, of course.

Quoting PM (Reply 56):
Yep, EK just stumble from one crisis to another...

 rotfl  Yea... they've just had so many known issues.  Wink

I have to admit, if EK orders 10 748's, 50 787's/A350's, and 55 more A380's... even I think that's more of an expansion than I can envision. Then again, there is a reason I'm not in fleet planning but rather in engineering.  Wink

I do see a ton of deman on many of their routes...

I guess its all going to come down to CASM. Could it be that Clark is also promising a large launch order for the A389? (Just speculation.)

Lightsaber
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ikramerica
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:59 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 51):
...is a strawman. Nobody said this

He did. PM said that. He revealed HIS bias and tried to lay it on me, which is a cowardly form of racism.

Quoting PM (Reply 53):
But this is far from the first thread where the rapid growth of EK has occasioned splenetic outbursts and there is often a clear undertone that would not be there if it was AA or BA or LH or SQ who were planning a whopping fleet

You need to read my posts regarding Virgin America, SRB, and my belief he is trying to skirt international treaties to build a global carrier. Am I racist against the British? Please. SRB and EK are just trying to dominate the premium markets of the world in two different ways. It's clear to people who AREN'T obsessed with race and PC crap and can see the world without that self censorship.

You are reading race into it where the argument doesn't demand it. The problem is, you are denying the truth of what I said, since it's easier to dismiss an argument by calling it racist (which is what happens in the USA whenever the topic of illegal immigration comes up).

I never said it was racial. Or religious. It is REGIONAL. There are multiple airlines in a very small region, the ARABIAN PENINSULA, planning massive growth. And if you don't believe that within the region, there is a "pissing match" going on about who is going to be perceived as the regional leader, you are blinded by your own prejudices.

I'm not a diplomat. I don't have to use PC words to avoid the press getting on my case. But don't put words in my mouth, either. Rather than accuse, why not ask what I meant?

"On high" means the owners of EK whom Clark works for, not Allah or anything of that sort. Clarke has people pulling his strings, telling him what to do. They are the very wealthy leaders of Dubai, who fund his airline and pay his salary. They tell him what to do and say. Period.

But what I have said in the past is the reason that certain arab leaders are throwing money into these airlines is to create a public face of the region that is seen as positive, and I stand by that. It's an attempt to buy goodwill, by underpricing "luxury" and winning friends. They sponsor sports teams and get their image out there to say: see, we aren't all about the negative images you see on the news. And they build a "disneyland" in Dubai for the same reason. And they build movie studios for the same reason (because to make a movie there, it must portray a POSITIVE image of the region). It's PR, and it's nothing new. China does it (see the 2008 Olympics), the USA does it, the EU does it.

But we aren't allowed to call a spade a spade if the people involved are of a different skin color?

Just as other nations resent the USA for dominating certain markets, so will nations begin to resent the UAE if they begin to dominate the airline market. It's called backlash, and the USA knows a little something about backlash.

Right now, EK barely serves the USA, so we are observers from afar. EK's plan is to dominate the EU, India and Africa first, infiltrate Australia as much as possible, then focus on the USA from both coasts once they are so large, nobody can stop them.

But I think EK underestimate the protectionist governments in the EU, who will respond if EK becomes too powerful and their mega-carriers start to suffer. If LH, BA and AF/KL begin to struggle against EK, let's see how accepting the EU a.net members are. When EK starts exploiting 5th freedom rights with multiple A380s out of FRA and LHR and CDG into the USA major markets, stealing all the premium traffic, let's see how the various governments react.
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:12 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 60):
PM said that. He revealed HIS bias

PM's "bias" being what exactly?  Wink

Quoting PM (Reply 53):
there is often a clear undertone that would not be there if it was AA or BA or LH or SQ who were planning a whopping fleet



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 52):
the real difference between the UK and the UAE is that the UK allows people of all persuasions to live there while the UAE is just one of many Middle East countries that based their existence on Islam - which has little if any tolerance for any other religion.

Got it?
 
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:26 pm

Raising our eyes back to the commercial prospects of operating 100+ A380s, what about this for a scenario?

These 110 (or whatever) A380s aren't going to arrive overnight and EK have yet to spell out their plans to replace their A330s, A340s and 777s. If these planes are all replaced with an equal (or larger) number of 787s or A350s and the 100+ A380s come on top of that, then that is indeed ambitious (though far from hubristic).

But might EK by 2020 have just two models in its fleet: 50-100 new widebody twins and 100+ A380s shuttling around? Is that so far-fetched? In other words, EK's business plan may be to make the A380 the backbone of their fleet. We already know that they plan different seating configurations with different layouts for high density and high yield. There would be advantages to standardising on relatively few basic platforms and their growth projections should be able to see A380s replace 777-300ERs a decade from now.

SQ currently have 150+ planes in service or on order. They fly from a city state of 4.5M people. I still don't understand why it is so outrageous to propose that EK might succeed in doing much the same thing.
 
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:32 pm

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 55):
http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Aviation/10152179.html

Interesting Clark quote from this article:

Quote:
"We'd take 100 if the airport could handle it," he said. He added that the airplane's capabilities are "morphing," as the test flights by Airbus have revealed greater range and payloads.

 scratchchin  first I've heard of this...

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 59):
I guess its all going to come down to CASM. Could it be that Clark is also promising a large launch order for the A389? (Just speculation.)

Quite possible. The 389's CASM is likely to have nothing to fear from the A350 and 787.
 
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:33 pm

I smell excessive ambition. There is no precedent for what Clarke is talking about doing, and I don't see any reason why that particular airline with that particular hub is going to be the one to make operations with 100+ of the largest airliner ever built (and a sizable remaining fleet that consists entirely of widebodies) work profitably. Good for them if I'm wrong, but there isn't a chance in hell this is going to work out. There are plenty of aircraft capable of bypassing DXB when flying between Europe/Africa and Asia/(eventually) Australia, and there's just no way DXB is going to be able to generate that level of O&D.

For that matter, where are they going to fly these A380s if other airlines don't start sharing their enthusiasm for the plane and airports aren't forced to make the upgrades to accommodate them?
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planemaker
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:39 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 52):
So, it isn't at ll far-fetched to see why EK wants to dominate the industry and that they are willing to defy every market indicator to try amd make their plan work.

If you just look at the current state of the industry. What about in 10-20 years? The aviation industry is one of the few global industries that hasn't gone through consolidation.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:05 pm

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 64):
There are plenty of aircraft capable of bypassing DXB

Just because they are capable of it doesn't mean they will. On ULR flights you save ~15% fuel by making a stop in the middle, and save ~20% fuel by using a shorter-range aircraft to begin with. If fuel costs as well as competitive and environmental pressures continue trending the way they have in the last couple of years, that 15% is going to trump any 'convenience' argument, especially if the connecting airport is a modern facility built from the ground up for a large fleet of A380s. Some ULR flights will still be offered, but with smaller aircraft configured with all-business seating... forever a niche.
 
qantas787
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:36 pm

Many of the over excited EK and TC groupies on this forum love to think that Dubai is some sort of nirvana that everyone in the world should fly thru. WHY? Any flamers ready to say that I haven't been there - think again. I have been there and it is VERY impressive, particularly now some 25 years since I first visited. However, don't go getting all moist about the world all wanting to fly via DXB to all points, just because Tim told you that they would.
G'day
 
insiderinfo
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:42 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 45):
Pan Am's initial order in 1966 for 25 747-100s was considered by many to be reckless and probably hubristic. Well, Pan Am are long gone - but not because they over-estimated their need for VLAs.

Their successor as The World's Favourite Airline now flies 57 substantially larger 747-400s (plus, I might add, not far off that many 777s). Who's asking incredulously how BA think they can fill those planes?

Big difference between BA's 57 744's and 42 772's and EK's 100 777's 2 and 3ER and 110 A380's. it's over 150% more seats...

and how long did it take BA to build a reputation and loyalty to fill those planes....who really heard of Emirates till 5 years ago...?

remember..alot more people in the UK fly with alot more money to spend on flying than in UAE...ever been there....?...it's a Sh*thole...go outside the 5 square mile over developed hot spot....and Jumriah..it's worse than a mumbai slum...for the most part..

There's now way EK will ever become a BA in our lifetime...
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:47 pm

Considering the rather small number of A380 friendly airports I wonder what they are going to do with more than 100 FatBusses! I hope they won't be sending them all to the French Riviera!  Big grin
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andessmf
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:01 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 45):
Pan Am's initial order in 1966 for 25 747-100s was considered by many to be reckless and probably hubristic. Well, Pan Am are long gone - but not because they over-estimated their need for VLAs.

Read your history, there are many who call the beginning of the end of Pan Am when they ordered 25 747s.

Quoting PM (Reply 56):
2. Because they made lots of other mistakes like neglecting to build a large domestic base.

Please, see above about reading your history. Pan Am WAS NOT ALLOWED to have a domestic base. IIRC, they purchased National airlines to get domestic feed, and shortly thereafter deregulation came.

Quoting PM (Reply 56):
And, strangely, it's almost exactly the same as Singapore's. Your point is?

But their order seems to go up tp 4X what SQ has on order.
 
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:58 pm

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 68):
Big difference between BA's 57 744's and 42 772's and EK's 100 777's 2 and 3ER and 110 A380's.

(43 777s, you'll find, with four more on order.) Anyway, yes, there is a difference. But the BA fleet of 747s by the late 1990s was twice the size of the Pan Am fleet of twenty years earlier and EK's 110 A380 (if it happens) will be twenty years later again. This reflects that fact that air travel is growing. Another possibility, which I raised in post #62 above, is that some of these additional A380s may be used to replace 777s. I don't find the idea of 100 twins plus 100 A380s by, say, 2018 terribly remarkable but it may only be 50 + 100. And, for the nth time, I don't find that a cause for (a) astonishment or (b) outrage.

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 68):
who really heard of Emirates till 5 years ago...?

More than ten years ago a friend of mine regularly flew on EK and I longed to do so myself. I also remember their first order for 777s which they placed more than 15 years ago. And it's more than 7 years ago since Emirates first signed for the A380 (or A3XX as it was then).

Who had heard of Emirates more than 5 years ago? Everyone but you, it seems!

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 68):
alot more people in the UK fly with alot more money to spend on flying than in UAE

Which is to miss the point entirely. If EK relied on home nationals to fill their planes they'd still be flying 727s. Remember when EK flew 727s? Probably not.  Wink

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 70):
there are many who call the beginning of the end of Pan Am when they ordered 25 747s.

Cause and consequence in history are slippery things. Many airlines that ordered 747s in the 1960s (Air France, Alitalia, Air India, British Airways, El Al, Iberia, JAL, Korean, KLM, Lufthansa, Qantas, SAA and United) are still flying them. Others (Swissair, Delta, Continental, American, Aer Lingus and Air Canada) have dropped them but are still in business.

Subsequently, the likes of Virgin, and even EK themselves, have demostrated that you can make money flying only long-haul widebodies.

The point is that buying those 747s wasn't necessarily a blunder. If management then managed to screw things up then that's another matter. And if it was a fatal blunder then it took a quarter of a century to kill the airline. And the world in which Pan Am eventually folded was a very different one from the world in which Juan Trippe made that fateful decision.

Bottom line: does that order in 1966 throw much light on a possible EK commitment for 100+ A380s? I doubt it.
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 5:19 pm

Classic thread - an airline manager who is known for talking a lot makes another new provocative statement and yet again an a.net crowd goes ballistic. Whether he is indeed evaluating such a large fleet or not - who knows. However, EK is in the worldwide press again - as so often. Free advertising all around the world - short-term mission accomplished. So I suggest to calm down and stop acting like Pavlov's Dog whenever Mr. Clark talks to the press...

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 35):
take a look any pictures in the database of cabin shots from Emirates

Rating an airline's success based on cabin pics on a.net - a new approach for the world's analysts?  Yeah sure  Yeah sure  Yeah sure

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 36):
The purpose of which to do nonstops such as Europe-Australia, or just about any two city pairs conceivable. When such planes are in place, and in time they will be, why would anyone want to make a stop/connection in DXB when they can overfly it nonstop to their destination?

Ever checked EK's route map? Ever seriously thought about connecting all these cities to each other?

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 52):
All it takes is a little attention to something besides a.net to realize that the Middle East is trying desperately to be recognized as something besides an oil supplier to the world after years of being dominated by foreign powers.

"THE" Middle East. Classy...  Yeah sure

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 52):
Their overambitious order was certainly part of being out of touch with market realities... just like EK is now.

EK is well in touch with customer demands right now.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 52):
Osama says what alot of Arabs believe but won't say - just convert to Islam and we'll all be happy. Which means that the real difference between the UK and the UAE is that the UK allows people of all persuasions to live there while the UAE is just one of many Middle East countries that based their existence on Islam - which has little if any tolerance for any other religion.

I'm not a muslim, but I feel absolutely tolerated and welcome in the UAE. Apparently you have never been there? Or are you mixing up the UAE with Saudi Arabia?

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 58):
Imagine if there's a major war in the Gulf region in the next 5-10 years. Imagine Iran is involved and lobs a chemical warhead onto DXB for being a US ally.

If there's a major war in the Gulf region many more airlines and businesses will suffer...

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 58):
What I am saying is that a lot can happen in only a few years, especially in that region of the world.

Theoretically, aliens could conquer the world...  Wink Seriously, should EK and Dubai stop growing just because something COULD happen?

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 68):
and how long did it take BA to build a reputation and loyalty to fill those planes....who really heard of Emirates till 5 years ago...?

Many people have, and not only those working in the industry...what's the relevance of this anyway?

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 68):
ever been there....?...it's a Sh*thole...go outside the 5 square mile over developed hot spot....and Jumriah..it's worse than a mumbai slum...for the most part..

I hope you don't base that opinion on pictures seen on the Internet...  Yeah sure

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 68):
There's now way EK will ever become a BA in our lifetime...

Indeed, I doubt EK aims at re-branding to BA anytime soon or in the future...  Wink


PH
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baroque
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 5:25 pm

If they continue to support the Aus cricket team and it continues it dominance of world cricket, they might need them to fly ecstatic Aus cricket fanatics around the world.

Seriously, as PM writes, the strength of Emirates seems to be underestimated* by some of the critics. The financial backers of the airline presumably do not want to lose their money, so the story sold to them must be quite convincing. And airlines do seem to be an area where they are more free to compete than in some others one could mention.

Fascinating possibility, especially if it leads to the 389, which apart from all the other tricks, will likely have a later generation of engines.

*Should this be misunderestimated?  Smile
 
Thorben
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 5:41 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 6):
exactly.

he's talking about 300 total widebodies including 100 VLAs in a fleet at one time. !!!!



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 6):
it was more a list of the planes he's said he will or would buy, but hasn't.

it's 10 10 748s, and 50 50 (only now said this way, used to just say 100) A350s or 787s, but it's still a few years and no action.

110 A380s are still a distant horizon. And I think the 100 A350s or 787s will replace a lot of the current fleet, the A343s, A332s, A345s, and all first generation T7s. So we are talking about:

110 A380s
around 60 777s, W, L, and F.
100 A350/787

maximum


Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
Yes, but folks are asking how EK can make use of 300 widebodies. With something like 20%(?) year-on-year growth, and a strategy that seems based on moving the maximum number of people between two points, no matter how close or far away (hence no narrowbodies and the belief the A332 will not be replaced with a similarly-sized plane, but something much bigger), then as those pax-km numbers grow, so must the number of planes needed to carry those pax those kms. Smile

I read somewhere that EK wants to make flying a lot cheaper, due to its economies of scale, that one billion people in Africa, and one billion people in India, who have not flown before, can afford it sooner or later. Thins of it as the crossing line to the kangaroo route.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 21):
Its going to be a matter of runway capacity and terminals. Hopefully EK can get more of a "rolling hub" going. However, at some point DXB will limit their growth. Well lookie here... JXB is under construction! bigthumbsup

JXB is going to be one hell of an airport. Six parallel runways!

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 36):
Airlines are seriously talking to A & B about ultra-long range versions of the 787 and 350. The purpose of which to do nonstops such as Europe-Australia, or just about any two city pairs conceivable. When such planes are in place, and in time they will be, why would anyone want to make a stop/connection in DXB when they can overfly it nonstop to their destination? I agree with others here. The only conceivable reason EK needs 110 Whalebuses is to contain Mr. Clark's ego.

There won't be many city pairs with direct links, maybe LHR-PER or LHR-SYD, but that will be very expensive for the pax. So if you live in HAM, Berlin, DUS, BHM, GLA, NCE, ATH, Moscow or where ever else, you might as well go via DXB than go via LHR or FRA. Especially if you want to go to a place in Australia where there is no direct flight to. And EK will make it much cheaper.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 10):
well, anything is possible, but they haven't taken delivery of 1 A380 yet, so let's not get too excited about frame number 110... Wink

First one is already in Hamburg
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astuteman
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 5:46 pm

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 59):
I guess its all going to come down to CASM. Could it be that Clark is also promising a large launch order for the A389? (Just speculation.)

You wish!!!!!!  Smile
So do I....  biggrin 

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 63):
Quote:
"We'd take 100 if the airport could handle it," he said. He added that the airplane's capabilities are "morphing," as the test flights by Airbus have revealed greater range and payloads.

first I've heard of this...

 rotfl   rotfl 
"The world turned upside-down".........
Dear me - how things have changed in 12 months

Weren't we told to "expect" SQ (and just about everyone else) to cancel their "whalejet" orders because it was WAY overweight, didn't have a prayer of meeting its specs, couldn't do more than 6500Nm with a decent payload, and would be trounced by the 748i, which would be both smaller and have far superior CASM.........

Or did I just imagine this....?  Smile

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 63):
The 389's CASM is likely to have nothing to fear from the A350 and 787

(Unheard-of for Airbus) better than expected performance can only help in this regard.......

Regards
 
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Ncfc99
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 5:57 pm

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 64):
There are plenty of aircraft capable of bypassing DXB when flying between Europe/Africa and Asia/(eventually) Australia, and there's just no way DXB is going to be able to generate that level of O&D.

There are planes that can connect the cities as you say, but they all fly, and will continue to do so with the introduction of the 787, from london in the UK(the only eception being SQ from MAN that I can think of). So if anyone outside of London wants to go to Africa, Asia, South America or Australia/NZ they have to connect through somewhwere. This is the Market that EK are going for in the UK + Some of the London market. They have, without doubt, a better hub than LHR, and arguably a better hub than AMS, FRA etc. They can also offer cheaper or similar prices than other carriers through their hubs. This market I am guessing to be 60-75% of the UK market.
That is a large amount of people to sell to and is quite similar for alot of other countries in Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia where EK connect the smaller cities and will not change due to the advent of long range twins, as these twins will have a capacity of 250pax and above, and the demand is not there for point to point flying with these planes to most destinations. So as a result, most destinations will still need a connecting service through a hub somewhere. Can anyone think of a better positioned hub then DXB for quite alot of routes from Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia.
 
Glareskin
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 5:58 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 6):
I don't know why he needs capacity for 110 A380s at DXB anyway. They won't all be parked there at one time. Just sounds like a typical bragging comment from the guy who loves to get his name in the press so some people quote him on a.net.

Better read first before making comments like this. Following is from the article:
Emirates' 55 A380s is the maximum number that can be accommodated with the 27 contact gates the airport is building for the double-decker superjumbo. "We'd take 100 if the airport could handle it," he said. He added that the airplane's capabilities are "morphing," as the test flights by Airbus has revealed greater range and payloads. .
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slz396
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 6:16 pm

Do I hear a little panic in the reactions from some (US) based posters?

Writing off a plane before its EIS, based on 1 or 2 slow years of sales is just ridiculous.
Like it or not, the European Superjumbo has a solid design (with a lot of growth in it) which will make sure it continues to sell under many forms for the next 2 to 3 decades at least.

Especially given that, in the words of Mr Tim Clark:

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 63):
the airplane's capabilities are "morphing" and the test flights by Airbus have revealed greater range and payloads.

Oh dear! Another shocker for the A380 bashing camp.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 75):
Weren't we told to "expect" SQ (and just about everyone else) to cancel their "whalejet" orders because it was WAY overweight, didn't have a prayer of meeting its specs, couldn't do more than 6500Nm with a decent payload, and would be trounced by the 748i, which would be both smaller and have far superior CASM.........

Or did I just imagine this....?

ROTFL
 
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gunsontheroof
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 6:40 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 66):
Just because they are capable of it doesn't mean they will.

They will if they're not Emirates. BA, AF, SQ, QF, AI, etc. etc. etc. aren't going to be making stops in DXB.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 66):
On ULR flights you save ~15% fuel by making a stop in the middle, and save ~20% fuel by using a shorter-range aircraft to begin with. If fuel costs as well as competitive and environmental pressures continue trending the way they have in the last couple of years, that 15% is going to trump any 'convenience' argument, especially if the connecting airport is a modern facility built from the ground up for a large fleet of A380s.

We shall see. I have a lot of doubts about this.
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WINGS
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 6:57 pm

Well guys what I particularly liked are the following comments from EK in regards to the A380.  Smile

http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Aviation/10152179.html

In addition, Emirates' love affair with the Airbus A380 remains unabated.

It sure does especially when they have placed 12 orders in 2007.

It was infrastructure, rather than financing, that has kept Emirates' A380 at 55, he said.

Despite popular belief, Emirates do actually generate very healthy profits.

He added that the airplane's capabilities are "morphing," as the test flights by Airbus has revealed greater range and payloads.

Actions speak louder than words. With 12 additional order in 2007 for the A380.

But the A380 has yet to prove itself as having the range for the American West Coast.

This seems as if Airbus is working towards this goal.

Clark said he is considering buying 10 or more 747-8 Intercontinental passenger aircraft to serve Los Angeles, San Francisco and points in South America.

"The 747-8I is not quite right yet," Clark said. Emirates engineers are attempting to solve this shortcoming over a number of ways, he said.

One solution is if Boeing designed a slighter lighter version of the 747-8I.

Emirates will also ask for new flyover rights over Russia that would shorten its course to the West Coast.

It is also considering flying at a slower speeds and reassessing average windspeeds on the route, all in an effort to justify a 747 purchase.


With so many issues, why not just stick to the A380? I'm sure that Emirates have enough power to influence Airbus into developing the A380-800R (long range)

Regards,
Wings
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slz396
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 7:16 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 80):
With so many issues, why not just stick to the A380? I'm sure that Emirates have enough power to influence Airbus into developing the A380-800R (long range)

Let me help you read his words:

It sounds as if Emirates ABSOLUTELY wants a plane which can make it to the American West coast non-stop.

From what Tim Clark is saying, EK is thrilled with the far better than expected performance of the A380, so much even it sounds like the A380 might be able to do DBX-LAX or SFO with a good pax load, but obviously these conclusions come from test data only, so

Quoting WINGS (Reply 80):
the A380 has yet to prove itself as having the range for the American West Coast. (dixit Clark)

In case the A380 can't do it year round after all,

Quoting WINGS (Reply 80):

Clark said he is considering buying 10 or more 747-8 Intercontinental passenger aircraft to serve Los Angeles, San Francisco and points in South America, although it still has many shortcomings which will have to be worked away first.

Contrary to the A380, there is still some margin of improvement left on the 748i, but so far Boeing hasn't been willing to make use of it, because it would cost them a fortune to turn it into their use, but to Tim Clark, such an 'enhanced' 748i is his back-up plane for DBX - West Coast routes should the A380 not offer what he needs after all.

The fact he is speaking about ordering MUCH more A380s.
the fact he mentions the outstanding performance of the A380, exceeding his own expectations.
the fact he says the A380 should now prove itself IRL as having the range to do Dubai - US West Coast
the fact he says the 748i has a whole list of shortcomings which need to be worked away first,
the fact EK are looking at contingency plans for operating the 748i (e.g. flying long range cruise)
etc...
All lead me into believing the 748i is second choice only for EK and has just seen its chances being reduced by the outstanding performance of the A380.
 
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 7:17 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 45):
What's so remarkable about that? It's called growth, isn't it?

The only problem with that logic is that there are only so many destinations. This "growth" can only go so far before EK is flying the regional US market (not seriously, though with this number of planes some smaller asian airports would probably see some traffic).
 
Thorben
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:54 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 75):
Weren't we told to "expect" SQ (and just about everyone else) to cancel their "whalejet" orders because it was WAY overweight, didn't have a prayer of meeting its specs, couldn't do more than 6500Nm with a decent payload, and would be trounced by the 748i, which would be both smaller and have far superior CASM.........

Or did I just imagine this....? Smile

 rotfl 

The 747-8 has the problem that it is a huge, gas-guzzling four-hauler, while the future of aviation are rather small and fuel-efficient twins (like the XWB), because pax want more point-to-point-flights.

Boeing - 4 engines 4 too long?

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 77):
Emirates' 55 A380s is the maximum number that can be accommodated with the 27 contact gates the airport is building for the double-decker superjumbo. "We'd take 100 if the airport could handle it," he said. He added that the airplane's capabilities are "morphing," as the test flights by Airbus has revealed greater range and payloads. .

How was that with Airbus always over-promising and Boeing always over-delivering???

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 78):
Do I hear a little panic in the reactions from some (US) based posters?

na, come on, there are still a lot of true enthusiasts over there.

Quoting WINGS (Reply 80):
"The 747-8I is not quite right yet," Clark said. Emirates engineers are attempting to solve this shortcoming over a number of ways, he said.


Hey, Clark now bashing the 747-8I??
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gunsontheroof
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:03 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 78):
Do I hear a little panic in the reactions from some (US) based posters?

Writing off a plane before its EIS, based on 1 or 2 slow years of sales is just ridiculous.
Like it or not, the European Superjumbo has a solid design (with a lot of growth in it) which will make sure it continues to sell under many forms for the next 2 to 3 decades at least.

The "shock" has nothing to do with the A380, which is as you said, a fine plane. The "shock" has to do with most of us wondering how the hell Emirates is going to operate 100 A380s and a fleet of B773, A346, A350/B787--all of which are generally the largest aircraft in most airline's fleets--profitably. For me at least, this is a criticism of Emirates, not the A380.

The plane is great, but it's simply got too many seats for most routes to justify buying this many of them. I can't see this working even if they do manage to become the airline of choice between Europe/Asia and elsewhere. If they were putting this capacity on 200 or so A350/B787 spread out into more markets, I might be able to see it working. Maybe.

Is Emirates planning on convincing dozens of more airports that wouldn't see A380 service otherwise to make the necessary adjustments for them to provide service?
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EK77W
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:47 pm

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 35):
take a look any pictures in the database of cabin shots from Emirates...won't see many in flight shots with full cabin's. !....especially not in business or first...

I have to completely disagree with that! I have flown with EK about 25 times in the last 3 years and about 75% of those flights have been packed! Not a spare seat in F,J or Y! The rest of the flights have been at about 70% load.
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Wsp
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:42 pm

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 84):
The "shock" has nothing to do with the A380, which is as you said, a fine plane. The "shock" has to do with most of us wondering how the hell Emirates is going to operate 100 A380s and a fleet of B773, A346, A350/B787--all of which are generally the largest aircraft in most airline's fleets--profitably. For me at least, this is a criticism of Emirates, not the A380.

This is a result of their geographical location. If you feed a European hub using narrow bodies you can tap into a 700m people market. If you feed DXB the same way you can bring back 700 types of desert sand but not much more. The silly comparisons of wide body aircraft only completely ignores that narrow bodies are of little use in the fleet concept of EK while they are a central element in the strategy of their competitors in Europe.
 
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:43 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 56):
I think someone has just provided the example your were requesting...

And you would have been justified in directing your complaint to THAT post rather than branding all the posters as prejudiced. The one post, coming after your diatribe does not justify it. no 
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planemaker
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:55 pm

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 84):
how the hell Emirates is going to operate 100 A380s and a fleet of B773, A346, A350/B787--all of which are generally the largest aircraft in most airline's fleets--profitably.

One would or should presume that they will be retiring their A346s and older 773s over the protracted delivery of that many A380s.

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 84):
Is Emirates planning on convincing dozens of more airports that wouldn't see A380 service otherwise to make the necessary adjustments for them to provide service?

They won't have to convince any airport... the airports will make adjustments on their own over time. Please bear in mind that delivery of the speculated order qty would not be next year - nor over just a few years... as it seems that many of those critical of EK believe, but over a protracted period. Just as airports made adjustments for the 747, many airports will make adjustments for the A380 over the next 10-20 years.

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 84):
I can't see this working even if they do manage to become the airline of choice between Europe/Asia and elsewhere.

You have to look to the future... 10-20 years out, and not today. Look to where the major growth in air travel is predicted. Look to what the industry might probably look like. Projecting the airline status quo into the future, as many seem to do, will not provide the correct answers.
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Ncfc99
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sun Sep 09, 2007 12:15 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 87):
And you would have been justified in directing your complaint to THAT post rather than branding all the posters as prejudiced. The one post, coming after your diatribe does not justify it.

I think PM is referencing the very negative attitude that seems to come from many(and by no means do I mean all) people from the USA regarding anything not American. If it can't work in America, it can't work anywhere. It can be a very tiring outlook after a while and human nature tends to tar everyone with the same brush.
 
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sun Sep 09, 2007 12:45 am

Any thread dealing with EK, the A380, and potential 787/A350 mega order, and now the possibility of 748Is as well, leads to drama......here is my point of view, and I will try to avoid the touchy subjects of religion, politics, nationalism, prejudice and the like.

Go back thirty or so years, who would have thought that airlines like SQ and CX would evolve into two of the world's leading carriers? Back then, SQ was small airline flying 737-100s and CX was a regional airline with CV880s, times certainly have changed things. Air travel and airlines in Asia boomed in the past decades.....and airlines CX, SQ, TG, etc became world players; not to mention airlines like Asiana and Evergreen seemingly came out of nowhere. Lets go back twenty or so years, did anyone really expect commerical aviation in China to explode in the manner in which it has in recent times? Chinese airlines fly the newest and most advanced airplanes on offer from Boeing and Airbus, and China orders 100s of narrow-bodies almost on a annual basis; China has come a long way from CAAC and its hodge podge fleet of scary Russian hand me down airplanes, hasn't it? How about India? For years, the Indian aviation scene was strangled by politics and interference from government leaders who could not seem to get anything right; that situation has changed as well with private carriers such as Jet Airways making a huge entry into the world markets operating a new and advanced fleet of the finest Boeing and Airbus airplanes and offering world-class service. Even Air India seems to be moving forward after years of stagnation. A lot has changed.......

Back to EK, they are looking to become a world carrier connecting cities world wide through a central efficient hub in Dubai......there business plan is sound: they have used SQ's model and will basically super-size it...more airplanes, more cities, bigger airplanes, etc. Will it work? Probably, so far the plan seems to be on track. EK has three things going for it: (1) Dubai is in a good location to move passengers from Europe, Africa and the Middle East to India, Asia and Oceania.....those are enormous markets - many of which are growing; those in the Americas may be a bit skeptial about EK's plans because EK's route structure will never be that interesting for those residing in North and South America simply due to geography, (2) Dubai itself is trying to reinvent itself as a major tourist, business and second home destination (lets say the capital of the modern Arab world) and EK is an integral part of this plan......the construction thats going on in Dubai is simply mind boggling (everything from the tallest building in the world, to subways, to geography changing islands on the coast) and Dubai wants and needs to establish itself as one of the major crossroads of the world, thus EK's continued growth, and (3) EK sees the opportunity to become the leading carrier of the Middle East.....this is a growing market that is just beginning to travel on the broad scale and the possibilities are huge. EK will play ""the Arab card"" in key markets and why shouldn't they? Airlines worldwide, from BA to LH to SQ, have capitalized on their unique strengths and cultures to succeed.

Also consider that the management of EK is giving our friend, media-happy Sir Richard, a run for the money when it comes to negotiating deals with the help of the media. Look at the latest round......EK would order another 55 A380s if they could, but they cant due to airport constraints so they wont: lots and lots of BS, but it certainly caught the attention of people worldwide including some usually very astute a.net members. How about the never ending A350/787 drama...EK will order a 100 or more of the next generation airplanes but neither Boeing or Airbus can seem to come up with a design that is satisfactory to EK: first the airplane was too small, then it was not advanced enough, then it did not have enough range, then it was too heavy, etc, etc. Lots of talk and little action. Now its the 748I.....EK likes that airplane too, sadly, its too heavy and/or does not have enough range and it either has too many or not enough seats. EK does have a huge number of A380s on order......but the last twelve were very much related to Airbus and settling matters concerning the A388F, the cancelled A346HGWs and the A380 program delays (sorry, Airbus crowd but everything is conencted)....EK is opportunistic (as they should be) and saw an opportunity to sign up for additional A380s at very sharp pricing (and, no, they were not for free).....EK will figure out what to do with the airplanes later on when they are delivered. In the past couple of years, aside from follow up orders for the 773ER and the additional A380s, EK cancelled the A346 order and has not really done much else. But, they do keep all of us talking and the world media is watching what EK is planning next; how is that for great ""free"" advertising?

Finally, although EK does have lots of airplanes on order......they will soon be considering returning the leased A343 fleet, retiring some early build 777s and at some point in the near future, replacement of the A332 fleet will commence. The fleet will balance out to some extent, its not all about expansion. Like SQ, EK does not plan to fly its airplanes for extended periods.......fly an airplane for 10 to 12 years, sell it at a good price on the second hand market, minimize heavy maintenance expenses, and move along does seem to be their plan.

The big issue that faces EK, in my opinion, is intense competition from the airlines of Dubai's neighbors....Qatar, Eithad, Gulf, etc seem to have big plans as well with huge expansion plans in place: one Gulf mega hub will work, but can three or four hubs all co-exist? Big, big issue.... and I certainly dont know the answer. Also consider that EK makes lots and lots of money shuttling ex-pat laborers in and out of Dubai from their homes world wide and India is a big piece of this pie, I dont think that the new Indian carriers are going to stand by and not compete with EK. To summarize, thegrowth and development of EK will be fascinating to watch and study....they are the ""next big thing"" and EK does face its challenges, but their business plan and aircraft orders are anything but crazy....controversial: absolutely, crazy: no way.
 
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USAF336TFS
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sun Sep 09, 2007 12:50 am

Quoting PM (Reply 42):
It still amazes me (though it no longer should) the indignation and outrage some A.Net posters obviously feel at the success of Emirates and Qatar.

I don't know if it's as nefarious as that. And to ignore issues that originate in that region, coupled with shear numbers and types of aircraft, the fact that OIL $$$, is playing a tremendous roll in all of this, simply discounts legitimate questions.

Being married to a LH employee, I do know that LH management is certainly keeping their eyes on the rear-view mirrors, when EK is mentioned.

But again, EK is embarking on a very aggressive 777 pilot recruitment program here in the States. They are taking delivery of new 777s that wind up being parked, because of the worldwide shortage of experienced flight crews.

To me, talking about 55 more of anything, whether 777, 787, A350 and especially A380, is breathtaking.
And yet again, if they can profitably fill those aircraft, I say more power to them.

At this point it just seems more likely that all those petrodollars are burning a hole in someones pocket.
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PlaneHunter
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sun Sep 09, 2007 1:05 am

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 91):
the fact that OIL $$$, is playing a tremendous roll in all of this

How exactly in the case of Dubai and EK?


PH
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sun Sep 09, 2007 1:15 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 92):

How exactly in the case of Dubai and EK?

I can't read newspapers for you, my good friend.... I think it would be safe to say that oil money is the huge factor in the region. Comparisons between each individual nation, ignore the point I was trying to make. Dubai is spending an enormous amount of money domestically, and you know it. Obviously EK isn't providing say 25% of their gross domestic product, now is it?
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PlaneHunter
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sun Sep 09, 2007 1:23 am

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 93):
I can't read newspapers for you, my good friend....

Why should you?

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 93):
. I think it would be safe to say that oil money is the huge factor in the region.

Dubai is not dependant on oil any longer - in contrast to other countries or emirates.


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sun Sep 09, 2007 1:26 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 90):
here is my point of view, and I will try to avoid the touchy subjects of religion, politics, nationalism, prejudice and the like.

Fantastic summary.  checkmark 

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 90):
The big issue that faces EK, in my opinion, is intense competition from the airlines of Dubai's neighbors....Qatar, Eithad, Gulf, etc seem to have big plans as well with huge expansion plans in place: one Gulf mega hub will work, but can three or four hubs all co-exist? Big, big issue.... and I certainly dont know the answer.

Many operate under the mistaken belief that EK's fortunes are backed by oil, but they are not. However, some of their local competitors are backed by oil. So you could possibly see some kind of intra-cine warfare if EK and the Emirates themselves get "too big" in the eyes of their neighbors. QR's large A350 order could be the first move in what could turn out to be a fascinating chess play.

I also tend to believe ULR ops are a bit of a red-herring. One 772ER flying two 4500nm legs with a stop in-between probably burns less fuel - and definitely carries a lot more payload - then one 77L flying 9000nm. The true market for the 777-200LR and A345-500 has been in carrying more stuff the same distance a 777-200ER and A340-300 can, not carrying less stuff farther. Sure, the 787-9LR and A350-900R will be more efficient then the 777-200LR and A345-500, but they're still going to likely be payload-restricted against the 787-9 and A350-900 at max range without significant upgrades which raise the cost to build, buy and operate them.

So I think hubs remain important - even vital - in the future and DXB/JXB is a well-placed one.
 
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sun Sep 09, 2007 1:34 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 94):
Why should you?

Thanks. I have one less thing to do this weekend.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 94):
Dubai is not dependant on oil any longer - in contrast to other countries or emirates.

With the price of oil at it's current levels, do they really need to be dependent on a single commodity? In either case, I noticed you didn't dispute my contention. And if they are diversifying their economy, which I would agree they are, then it's just economically, a very smart move on the government's part.

But, IMHO, ignoring oil as a factor, ignores an important part of the equation, IN THE REGION. And I specifically mentioned region. And as you and particularly Stitch correctly pointed out:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 95):
Many operate under the mistaken belief that EK's fortunes are backed by oil, but they are not. However, some of their local competitors are backed by oil. So you could possibly see some kind of intra-cine warfare if EK and the Emirates themselves get "too big" in the eyes of their neighbors.



When dicussing EK, it can't be talked about in a vacuum.

[Edited 2007-09-08 18:52:41]
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sun Sep 09, 2007 1:43 am

Ok... well, just because they are ordering 110 A380s doesn't mean they will fly them all. The aviation industry is currently dominated by only 2 leasing companies. Emirates could easily become the 3rd one. Given that they ordered so many A380s, they probably got a huge discount. They can then lease out several A380s and a slightly higher, but still very reasonable price, and make a good profit.

Even now, with 55 A380s, Emirates is not sure what to do with all of them. They were exploring the ideas of LCCs based on A380s and ect.
 
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sun Sep 09, 2007 2:09 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 95):

Many operate under the mistaken belief that EK's fortunes are backed by oil, but they are not. However, some of their local competitors are backed by oil. So you could possibly see some kind of intra-cine warfare if EK and the Emirates themselves get "too big" in the eyes of their neighbors. QR's large A350 order could be the first move in what could turn out to be a fascinating chess play.

According to the official UAE government website, the national oil and gas companies account for 33% of the country's GDP.

While onshore reserves are drying up, offshore rigs provide the majority of the nation's output.

http://www.uae.gov.ae/Government/oil_gas.htm
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sun Sep 09, 2007 2:25 am

I have to largely agree with PM and others here, consider a point alluded to before, just how does a tiny city state like Singapore have such a large airline?
Not the exact same situation as EK of course, but it demonstrates the point that Dubai's size, local population, do not have bearing here, now location, that's another matter!

I'll admit I've not been to Dubai, but everyone I know who has, always says the same, along the lines of how much it's expanded/changed since their previous visit, even if that was not long since.

We've all fallen into the same trap with the A380, seeing it's principal customer base as established flag carriers in Europe, the SE Asian 'Tigers', a few others here and there.
Could it be that it's main customers will be a newer generation of airlines, from the ME, quite possibly too from newer carriers in fast growing places like India, China?

The denial of prejudice would be more convincing without that whole paranoia/xenophobia fest with the Dubai Ports issue not long ago, never mind they also provide port facilities for US Navy warships in the Gulf itself!
 
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sun Sep 09, 2007 3:41 am

Quoting GDB (Reply 100):
The denial of prejudice would be more convincing without that whole paranoia/xenophobia fest with the Dubai Ports issue not long ago, never mind they also provide port facilities for US Navy warships in the Gulf itself!

The United States of America has a population of around 300 million. Just because 535 of them act like idiots, doesn't mean the other 299,998,435 are idiots, as well...  gnasher 

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