bmacleod
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JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:28 am

Right now with rumors that BA will not order the 748 but will order the A380, I feel the best hope for a major 748i breakthrough will be JAL the largest operator of 747s.

CX? Maybe but 773ER might be more attractive to them.
PR? Another possibility.
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ikramerica
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:34 am

no way. JL is the worst hope for the 748i, as they are in bad shape and can only afford the 77W and 787s they have on order right now.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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Stitch
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:36 am

Yeah, I don't see JL or NH as likely near-term 747-8I customers...
 
eraugrad02
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:43 am

Quoting Bmacleod (Thread starter):
Right now with rumors that BA will not order the 748 but will order the A380

Who has stated this comment? I've seen guesses so far but no news either way.
Desmond MacRae in ILM
 
ikramerica
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:44 am

Quoting ERAUgrad02 (Reply 3):
Who has stated this comment? I've seen guesses so far but no news either way.

I wasn't even going to go there. the whole thread is silly, based on "conclusive rumors" and an ill informed conclusion as well.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:10 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
I wasn't even going to go there. the whole thread is silly, based on "conclusive rumors" and an ill informed conclusion as well.

I think you could go further and say that the whole Civil Aviation forum is based on inconclusive rumors and an ill informed conclusion...
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
ikramerica
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:15 am

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 5):
I think you could go further and say that the whole Civil Aviation forum is based on inconclusive rumors and an ill informed conclusion...

not the orders thread. that's the only one i trust...  Wink
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
PlymSpotter
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:21 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 6):
not the orders thread. that's the only one i trust...

Indeed, indeed, that's about the only thread you can read, safe in the knowledge that it's factual!  silly 
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
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teme82
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:22 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
no way. JL is the worst hope for the 748i

I agree! JAL has been selling their 747's since they are moving to 767/777/787 fleet....
Flying high and low
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:34 am

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 7):
Indeed, indeed, that's about the only thread you can read, safe in the knowledge that it's factual!

And yet there is still argument over those facts! A.Net never ceases to fascinate. smile 
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JAAlbert
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 6:34 am

I thought I read an article several months back posted on a.net stating that JAL was ridding itself of its 747s and would no longer include them in their fleet. The article also indicated that the A380 was not planned for them also. The largest plane JAL intends on maintaining is the 777. The other aircraft are too large as I recall the article.

Does anybody else recall this article??
 
zvezda
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 6:50 am

JL have no need for anything as large as a 747-8. They are transitioning from 747-400s to 777s to 787s.
 
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keesje
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 7:26 am

I don´t see a fundamental change in Japanese air travel that

could initiate a radical move from a market that absorbed

more then a hundred 747s to a market that would require none

for the next decades while other operators serving the same

market will introduce even bigger VLA´s soon.

Narita has been slot restricted and stuffed with 747s as long as I can remember.


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dl767captain
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 7:42 am

Quoting Bmacleod (Thread starter):
Right now with rumors that BA will not order the 748 but will order the A380, I feel the best hope for a major 748i breakthrough will be JAL the largest operator of 747s.

i don't think BA will not order the 748, from the things i have read it sounds like the 748 has a better chance with them and their routes, but JAL would be a good customer for the 748 some day but right now they have no money. a lot of people think the 748 will die but there are still a lot of customers that have not started their fleet renewal and others that may still order the plane along with their A380's, there is still Virgin atlantic that might be looking at the 748 since they deferred their A380s to 2013 and are working with boeing on new fuels. NW and UA also will need to replace their 744s in the next couple years, don't worry about the 748 it will remain in the air
 
egnr
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:10 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 13):
there is still Virgin atlantic that might be looking at the 748 since they deferred their A380s to 2013

Richard Branson recently stated that Virgin would seek to avoid 4-engined aircraft where possible for environmental reasons. link

This puts a cloud over the order for 6 A380s that VS has deferred, and a 748i order would go against this as well. However, as well all know, Tricky Dicky is not a man afraid of going back on his word when it can get him the press he wants...
7late7, A3latey, Sukhoi Superlate... what's going on?
 
boeingfever777
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:15 am

Quoting Bmacleod (Thread starter):
Right now with rumors that BA will not order the 748 but will order the A380, I feel the best hope for a major 748i breakthrough will be JAL the largest operator of 747s.

CX? Maybe but 773ER might be more attractive to them.
PR? Another possibility.

Is this just you spitting some random garbage or what?

JL? Come on... Didn't they just post another lose?

NH? We all know that Mr. Yamamoto, has said that he would like only 737, 777, & 787 in his all Boeing long-haul fleet.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
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keesje
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:33 am

Quoting Boeingfever777 (Reply 15):
NH? We all know that Mr. Yamamoto, has said that he would like only 737, 777, & 787 in his all Boeing long-haul fleet.

You might be only hearing what you want to hear..

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...oor-open-for-a380-despite-777.html
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
zvezda
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:38 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 13):
there is still Virgin atlantic that might be looking at the 748 since they deferred their A380s to 2013

Are you sure? I thought VS's deferral was indefinite.
 
Jet-lagged
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:04 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
Narita has been slot restricted and stuffed with 747s as long as I can remember.

Ten, fifteen years ago, yeah it seemed like nearly every plane on the tarmac was a 747. Over the years I've definitely seen a change, and now I would hazard a guess that only about 50% are 747. I've no hard statistics, but definitely the fraction of quads and jumbos has been trending down.
 
United Airline
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:10 am

BA and CX will likely place a large B 747-8 order I think.

JAL and ANA will not order the B 747-8 for now but after years I think.
 
United Airline
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:13 am

VS too I think eventually
 
dl767captain
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:49 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 17):
Are you sure? I thought VS's deferral was indefinite.

maybe but i'm pretty sure they didn't cancel their order, i think they just pushed it very far back so they could make a decision but i could be wrong.

Quoting EGNR (Reply 14):

This puts a cloud over the order for 6 A380s that VS has deferred, and a 748i order would go against this as well. However, as well all know, Tricky Dicky is not a man afraid of going back on his word when it can get him the press he wants...

he did say that but the current 744s are on lease and were leased a little longer due to the A380 delays, so they may need to be replaced soon and the only current 2 engine replacement that could arrive soon would be the 777 and i don't think the 777 would offer much more compared to the 748. They could lease the 748 for a while until the 787s become available
 
Asiaflyer
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:39 am

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 10):
I thought I read an article several months back posted on a.net stating that JAL was ridding itself of its 747s and would no longer include them in their fleet. The article also indicated that the A380 was not planned for them also. The largest plane JAL intends on maintaining is the 777. The other aircraft are too large as I recall the article.

Does anybody else recall this article??

Yepp, I think I recall that article, but think it was about ANA and not JAL.
However, JALs financial status seems to be very bad.
Didnt they say that they will put their hangars up for sale for getting some extra cash some days ago?
SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
 
justloveplanes
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:33 pm

JAL was such a famous airline..like Pan Am, TWA,...oops....
 
B7474
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:12 pm

China Airlines i'm guessing could be a possible candidate.
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:35 pm

Quoting B7474 (Reply 24):
China Airlines i'm guessing could be a possible candidate.

That's a given. How else to thank us for sending our Navy's carrier battle groups through the straits so frequently?
 
boeingfever777
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:54 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):
You might be only hearing what you want to hear..

Article is way over a year old... He has come out with in the last 6months saying otherwise. They want all Boeing!
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
TrijetsRMissed
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:59 pm

Maybe some years down the road... I just can't imagine Japan without a 747 operator. Hopefully the 744 won't be the last.
There's nothing quite like a trijet.
 
JRDC930
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:29 pm

Quoting Bmacleod (Thread starter):
I feel the best hope for a major 748i breakthrough will be JAL the largest operator of 747s.

Not them or any one else. Boeing really missed with this plane; the freighter version they were spot on, but a passenger version? No WAY, all present 747 operators with the exception of LH will go to either 787/350/777 only or a combo of these and 380's no one really seems interested in the 748I. There haven't even been any reliable rumors, BA included of more than a passing interest in the plane. It too big or not big enough for the 747 operators, who want to expand. Airbus has done a good job with their sales team attracting potential 747 operators to the 380, with the capacity for expansion. The 748 i is dead, IMHO. Certainly with JAL, they are moving to smaller planes. Too bad for the 748i though, would have liked to flown on it. Looks like boxes will be the only things carried by the 748...  

[Edited 2007-09-08 07:33:26]
U.S. Legacy carriers,STILL leaders in lowering industry standards...
 
zvezda
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:55 pm

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 27):
I just can't imagine Japan without a 747 operator.

Don't worry; you'll get used to it after JL and NH have retired all their 747s.
 
ha763
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:17 pm

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 27):
I just can't imagine Japan without a 747 operator.

The JAL 744Fs and BCFs are not going anywhere anytime soon. More 744s will be converted to BCFs.
 
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Aaron747
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:11 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
I don´t see a fundamental change in Japanese air travel that
could initiate a radical move from a market that absorbed
more then a hundred 747s to a market that would require none
for the next decades while other operators serving the same
market will introduce even bigger VLA´s soon.

Then you haven't been paying attention to market conditions in Japan at all.

- JAL? Strapped for cash, still looking for additional funding, converting remaining 744 fleet to BCF, going all 77W/772/787 for longhaul.

- ANA? Doing great, yield-focused, operating the 744 configuration with the fewest overall seats until their soon-to-come retirement. Also going to a 77W/787 long haul fleet.

- Regulatory? More environmental regulations on the horizon throughout Japan. Higher use fees at various airports for four engine aircraft and several bans on four-engine domestic flights already in place in areas with local governments strict about emissions.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
iwok
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:40 pm

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 21):
maybe but i'm pretty sure they didn't cancel their order, i think they just pushed it very far back so they could make a decision but i could be wrong.

Its not really a cancellation, just a committment to potentially consider thinking about the possibility of evaluating a more concerted effort at seeing if they will make any efforts to possibly ensure that a scenario of consideration of endevors to construct a pathway for future prospective orders for the 380 is strictly and rigidly enforced!

VS + 380 = dead, non starter.

Once a sale is lost its almost impossible to win it back.

iwok
 
MP
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 5:42 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):

That's true. JL recently moved some of their flights to JO, as their crews and SVC are cheaper.

JL isn't doing very well and I don't see them ordering any B747-8 till they recovered from their current financial crisis. Their often ineffective operations cost them a lot of money and about 2 months ago, they had to request another credit to pay their operations.
 
EnviroTO
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 6:41 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
I don´t see a fundamental change in Japanese air travel that
could initiate a radical move from a market that absorbed
more then a hundred 747s to a market that would require none
for the next decades while other operators serving the same
market will introduce even bigger VLA´s soon.

How about greater competition, a population of Japan which is peaking and is expected to decline, and a shinkansen network (bullet train) that is being extended to reach the final major destinations of the main islands and which runs much faster on existing routes than it did 25 years ago (trip times reduced by close to 30%)? The domestic need for VLAs in Japan seems different now.
 
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glideslope
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:17 pm

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 5):

I think you could go further and say that the whole Civil Aviation forum is based on inconclusive rumors and an ill informed conclusion...

I'm trying to improve.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
ZKNBX
Posts: 440
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:21 pm

Surely China Airlines (CAL) (i.e. CI) is a likely candadate with their large fleet of 744s and a strong relationship with Boeing.
 
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distanthorizon
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:45 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
I wasn't even going to go there. the whole thread is silly

Off course it is... It insinuates that the 747 needs a breakthrough! How did the thread starter dare?!

The same story. Over and over...

What I really don't understand is why people participate in threads they consider silly!

DH
Regards
Nelson SE
 
ktachiya
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sun Sep 09, 2007 12:27 am

I agree about CI but how about BR? I think some routes require aircrafts larger than the B777-300ER.

Although JL is starting to convert its B747-400 to BCF, I don't think they have plans so far to sell them off or park them in the desert right? JL needs some large aircraft on certain routes. JFK comes to mind immediately. I think the JL8/7 flight got delayed last week and they had 3 flights to NRT from JFK one day. If other competitors start sendings its A380 that has all these advanced new buisiness features, JAL would have to choose either between the B747-8 or A380.
Flown on: DC-10-30, B747-200B, B747-300, B747-300SR, B747-400, B747-400D, B767-300, B777-200, B777-200ER, B777-300
 
ebj1248650
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sun Sep 09, 2007 12:57 am

Wouldn't KLM qualify as a possible 748 customer? How about Asiana?
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
JRDC930
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sun Sep 09, 2007 2:00 am

Quoting DistantHorizon (Reply 37):
What I really don't understand is why people participate in threads they consider silly!

As a way to get it through people's head that the 748I might not be the success that every one thought. To illustrate the fact no airline has showed serious interest since LH. The only positive things said about the 748i is by boeing. Nothing positive from any airline or lending company. By the way considering the Passenger version only, i doubt 20 orders is a breakthrough.These threads though redundant, are wake up calls.
U.S. Legacy carriers,STILL leaders in lowering industry standards...
 
RussianJet
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sun Sep 09, 2007 2:55 am

Japan won't buy big -

Four engine too much money -

Two engine more sense.
✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
 
zvezda
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sun Sep 09, 2007 2:58 am

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 39):
Wouldn't KLM qualify as a possible 748 customer?

No, KL's combis will not be replaced by 747-8s.

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 39):
How about Asiana?

Yes, OZ might possibly buy 747-8s, however, I think 787s or A350s would work better for them.
 
Charles79
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sun Sep 09, 2007 3:03 am

I have mixed feelings about the 748 issue. I'm a huge A380 fan, so of course seeing more airlines order them is a big plus!! Big grin

However, I'm also a huge 747 fan, and would love to see the 748 program gain more orders for the pax version (I know, I know, the 748F has a lot of orders but how often do you fly as cargo?). I know that the current 744s will probably stay with us more another 15-20 years ferrying pax cross continents, but I think the 748 will be an exceptional A/C that deserves a second look.

Again, don't get me wrong, I applaud every airline that orders an A380/777/A330/A340/787/A350, but hopefully the 748 is good enough to still be considered in the same breath (modern, efficient, economical, etc). Ultimately, though, the bean counters will decide its fate.

Back on topic, I see Cathay, China Airlines, and BA as stronger 748 candidates than the Japanese carriers (for reasons already listed above).

Charles!
 
bmacleod
Topic Author
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sun Sep 09, 2007 3:19 am

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 28):
The 748 i is dead, IMHO.

So maybe the A380 is the new 747?

174 orders is no real breakthrough and the break-even number is still climbing due to delays and unforeseen costs.

I guess well know who's right by end of 2009.
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
jfk777
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sun Sep 09, 2007 8:56 am

The 773ER may be the current flagship for Japanesse airlines but the day is coming when Qantas, Singapore, Air France & Lufthansa will operate the A380 to Narita. Whatever JAL's latest seasons Business Class has on a 777 won't compare to the A380's.
 
zvezda
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sun Sep 09, 2007 9:05 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 45):
Whatever JAL's latest seasons Business Class has on a 777 won't compare to the A380's.

That's not clear. SQ are installing exactly the same business class on the 777-300ER and the WhaleJet. A small aircraft can be made just as comfortable as a large aircraft. I've flown the LH/PrivatAir 737s and A319s transatlantic and they are every bit as nice as LH's widebody service in business class.
 
TrijetsRMissed
Posts: 1983
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sun Sep 09, 2007 9:21 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 46):
A small aircraft can be made just as comfortable as a large aircraft.

True, but flying a widebody is always a bit more of a thrill, IMO. I not too crazy about flying a 752 on a TATL, let alone transcon.
There's nothing quite like a trijet.
 
JAL
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sun Sep 09, 2007 10:46 pm

I think they're still some chance that BA and JAL might order the 747-8I.

Just not now but eventually they will.
Work Hard But Play Harder
 
columba
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Sun Sep 09, 2007 11:05 pm

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 40):
To illustrate the fact no airline has showed serious interest since LH.

How do you know a 747 is not a 737 or A320 but a much bigger investment many airlines come to my mind that have a need for either the A380 or 747-8. The fact that the airlines just take longer time to evaluate which aircraft they order does not show they are not interested at all.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong

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