With the Japanese government trying to push JL
to expand from other airports and encouraging foreign carriers to fly into KIX
, it is hard to imagine the need for many 748 or A380.
I can see a few 748s for NRT
ops, but no where near the numbers of the current fleet. Why? Fracturing. Just like Europe in the 1980s going from mostly 747s to many smaller aircraft (747s still do heavy routes). Trans-pac and specifically Japan is ready for more non-stops from different airports to non-NRT
airports. If the 747 is too big, you use a 777 or A340, if that is too big use a 767 or A330. And if you are really brave and want to serve a market where there is good money but you can't really fill a big plane use a 757. For West Coast US and Canada to Asia a 767-200ER or an A332 or larger can do the job. On Europe to Japan, an A340, 777 and larger are needed. (AF
did use an A332 on one route to NRT
but it was highly restricted and is now gone.) The A350 and 787 will help change this. I have a feeling that the 787-8 will be the key for opening up Japan to more destinations world-wide.
has orderd the A380 but not in huge numbers. They have kept to 777, A330 and 787s. The A380s will be used most likely on NRT
routes, maybe LAX
. But otherwise they have been exploring how to use their location to attract regional traffic. They use 737s to smaller airports in China, Japan and other countries and feed pax back to ICN
to get them to their final destination. They serve the most international destinations of any Asian Carrier.
Think about this.
40 million people in Kanto (NRT
GDP: Kanto $1650B (Italyfs national GDP=$1766B)
24 million people in Kansai (KIX
GDP: Kansai $681B (Australiafs GDP=$708B)
17 million people in Chubu (NGO
Chubu $656B (The Netherlandsf GDP= $625B)
15 million people on Kyushu (FUK
GDP: Kyushu $406B (Belgiumfs GDP=$372B)
5 million people in Hokkaido (CTS
GDP: Hokkaido $168B (Thailandfs GDP=$169B)
has kept most of their long-haul at NRT
. They have only one long-haul flight (7 hours+) out of KIX
and one at NGO
has ZERO.* If NRT
is full up, these two airlines will have to get creative and build up KIX
to remain competative. They will also have to ofter more flights to North America and link them to more destinations in Asia. They will have to turn NGO
into mini-hubs and then connect them to NRT
to filter and redistribute passengers. If you can't get on a flight from NRT
to your desired destination, you are flown domestically to NGO
where you can take their flight to your destination.
This system would not require 747s but smaller aircraft. ONLY NRT
would need a few larger aircraft but if pax are filtered to other airports, then it won't require that many VLA. Right now many pax flying long-haul are filtred through NRT
. Some go through KIX
takes a good chunk now too especially on Europe routes.
* (JL does have flights to OZ and South East Asia from KIX. JL has one flight from NGO to BKK and JO has NGO-HNL. Those are considered Asia/Pacific regional. NH cut most KIX and NGO long-hauls after 9/11)
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!