zvezda
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Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:05 am

Quoting JAL (Reply 48):
I think they're still some chance that BA and JAL might order the 747-8I.

BA certainly might. JL seems most unlikely. By the time JL could seriously consider the 747-8, they are likely to have better options perhaps including 787-11s, Y3s, and A350-1100s.
 
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centrair
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:41 am

With the Japanese government trying to push JL and NH to expand from other airports and encouraging foreign carriers to fly into KIX and NGO, it is hard to imagine the need for many 748 or A380.

I can see a few 748s for NRT ops, but no where near the numbers of the current fleet. Why? Fracturing. Just like Europe in the 1980s going from mostly 747s to many smaller aircraft (747s still do heavy routes). Trans-pac and specifically Japan is ready for more non-stops from different airports to non-NRT airports. If the 747 is too big, you use a 777 or A340, if that is too big use a 767 or A330. And if you are really brave and want to serve a market where there is good money but you can't really fill a big plane use a 757. For West Coast US and Canada to Asia a 767-200ER or an A332 or larger can do the job. On Europe to Japan, an A340, 777 and larger are needed. (AF did use an A332 on one route to NRT but it was highly restricted and is now gone.) The A350 and 787 will help change this. I have a feeling that the 787-8 will be the key for opening up Japan to more destinations world-wide.

KE has orderd the A380 but not in huge numbers. They have kept to 777, A330 and 787s. The A380s will be used most likely on NRT and LHR routes, maybe LAX and SFO. But otherwise they have been exploring how to use their location to attract regional traffic. They use 737s to smaller airports in China, Japan and other countries and feed pax back to ICN to get them to their final destination. They serve the most international destinations of any Asian Carrier.

Think about this.
40 million people in Kanto (NRT serving)
GDP: Kanto $1650B (Italyfs national GDP=$1766B)

24 million people in Kansai (KIX serving)
GDP: Kansai $681B (Australiafs GDP=$708B)

17 million people in Chubu (NGO serving
Chubu $656B (The Netherlandsf GDP= $625B)

15 million people on Kyushu (FUK serving)
GDP: Kyushu $406B (Belgiumfs GDP=$372B)

5 million people in Hokkaido (CTS serving)
GDP: Hokkaido $168B (Thailandfs GDP=$169B)

Currently JL has kept most of their long-haul at NRT. They have only one long-haul flight (7 hours+) out of KIX and one at NGO. NH has ZERO.* If NRT is full up, these two airlines will have to get creative and build up KIX and NGO to remain competative. They will also have to ofter more flights to North America and link them to more destinations in Asia. They will have to turn NGO and KIX into mini-hubs and then connect them to NRT or HND to filter and redistribute passengers. If you can't get on a flight from NRT to your desired destination, you are flown domestically to NGO or KIX where you can take their flight to your destination.

This system would not require 747s but smaller aircraft. ONLY NRT would need a few larger aircraft but if pax are filtered to other airports, then it won't require that many VLA. Right now many pax flying long-haul are filtred through NRT. Some go through KIX and NGO. ICN takes a good chunk now too especially on Europe routes.

* (JL does have flights to OZ and South East Asia from KIX. JL has one flight from NGO to BKK and JO has NGO-HNL. Those are considered Asia/Pacific regional. NH cut most KIX and NGO long-hauls after 9/11)
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
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Stitch
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Mon Sep 10, 2007 3:41 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 51):
KE has orderd the A380 but not in huge numbers. They have kept to 777, A330 and 787s. The A380s will be used most likely on NRT and LHR routes, maybe LAX and SFO. But otherwise they have been exploring how to use their location to attract regional traffic. They use 737s to smaller airports in China, Japan and other countries and feed pax back to ICN to get them to their final destination. They serve the most international destinations of any Asian Carrier.

ICN is quite possibly the optimum North Asian airport to base 787-3 ops out of, since Western China, Taiwan, Japan, and North Asia are all within 1250nm. And if you lower the payload a bit, South Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc.) all become possible. With some good alliances/codeshares to drive O&D traffic, KE could leverage the capacity of the 787-3 to good effect, I imagine.
 
JRDC930
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Mon Sep 10, 2007 7:36 am

Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 44):
I guess well know who's right by end of 2009.

Good Point. I know you cant make conclusions based on industry talk, but if you remember right the 380 has been aplauded by all its customers since the design and even through the delays, the 748i has NOT recieved any praise,other than LH, and it is essentially already developed. Infact major airlines, as i point out often on these threads, have actually made negative comments regarding the 748i. Still your probably right; its to early to tell. I would just caution Boeing 747 fans (including myself), not to get their hopes up too much. There hasnt even been so much as a RELIABLE leak as to a possible order; this is not top secret project, if some one was serious about this plane
U.S. Legacy carriers,STILL leaders in lowering industry standards...
 
Carpethead
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Mon Sep 10, 2007 12:57 pm

Quoting EnviroTO (Reply 34):
The domestic need for VLAs in Japan seems different now.

Not to mention more slots at HND in 2010 will make the 744D a thing of the past.
JL is already planning a phase out of the 744Ds starting in 2010.
NH just retired another 744D last week. More 744/Ds are headed out of NH's fleet with the arrival of the 773ERs.
 
TrijetsRMissed
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Mon Sep 10, 2007 2:56 pm

So we all know NH is in the process of eliminating the 747 from their fleet, how many more years will the 747 be flying pax with JL?
There's nothing quite like a trijet.
 
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centrair
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:26 pm

Here is a nice little document from JL.

JAL Group Q1 Account Settlement for FY2006 (PDF)

Does not go into detail about when the last 744 will be but on page 22, there is a nice graphic as to why they are downsizing the fleet. Amazing how NRT-LHR profits went up 16.9% with going from a 744 to a 777-300ER.
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
Carpethead
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Mon Sep 10, 2007 5:48 pm

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 55):
how many more years will the 747 be flying pax with JL?

Considering their large 744 fleet, they will be around until at least 2015 or beyond.
They have nothing on order to replace any of the 744s, both cargo BCFs and pax.
As mentioned, JL is in no position to replace their 744 fleet at the moment. Their current enegies are put into replacement of the 747 classics and MD87/81 plus become a profitable company again.

A good candidate for 744 replacement is again the 748i but an order is highly unlikely for the next several years. JL might even wait for the next generation of VLA Boeing widebody.

The 744D will start phase-out in 2010, as mentioned before. Most likely replacement candidate is 783s. Not on a one-on-one replacement but to add frequencies in conjuction with its existing fleet of 777s.
 
parapente
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Mon Sep 10, 2007 6:07 pm

What this thread does illustrate is how absolutly key the BA order is becomming. If BA "go for broke" and go all 380 then it is hard to see where Boeing go from here. I know very little about the market in Japan. However if it is true that the 748 is not right for them it really starts to look bad for the 748i (imho).

In many ways Boeing is hoisted on their own petard. They have championed the fragmented piont to point cause.Until recently had very low estimates for expanding hub to hub traffic (recently revised upwards with the launch of the 748). Perhaps they were right all along and it really is a small niche market (for now). If so they would have done better to develop the 777-400?

We will know soon enough. The BA order is not far away.
 
zvezda
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Mon Sep 10, 2007 8:13 pm

Quoting Centrair (Reply 56):
Amazing how NRT-LHR profits went up 16.9% with going from a 744 to a 777-300ER.

It's really not amazing at all. RASM always goes up as aircraft size goes down -- keeping the same product i.e. seats, service, etc. That's why a larger aircraft needs to have either better range or substantially lower CASM to be attractive to airlines. Because the 787-10 and A350-1000 will have similar range and similar CASM to the current VLA offerings, the latter have very poor sales prospects.
 
jfk777
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Tue Sep 11, 2007 12:52 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 46):
That's not clear. SQ are installing exactly the same business class on the 777-300ER and the WhaleJet. A small aircraft can be made just as comfortable as a large aircraft. I've flown the LH/PrivatAir 737s and A319s transatlantic and they are every bit as nice as LH's widebody service in business class.

AS great as the 777 is and as wonderful as Singapore's 777-300ER are, the A380 will make it look bad. There was nothing like 747 in the 70's and nothing like an A380 NOW.
 
zvezda
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Tue Sep 11, 2007 3:27 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 60):
AS great as the 777 is and as wonderful as Singapore's 777-300ER are, the A380 will make it look bad. There was nothing like 747 in the 70's and nothing like an A380 NOW.

I've flown on all ten of SQ's 777-300ERs in business class and one of them in first class. With exactly the same seats to be installed in business class, the only advantages I can see to flying an SQ WhaleJet in business class versus a 777-300ER in business class are that the WhaleJet will be faster and quieter. Faster and quieter are nice (despite Boeing attempts to spin quiet as a problem) but if both aircraft are operating the same route, then I will choose based on schedule.
 
drexotica
Posts: 150
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:40 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 56):
Does not go into detail about when the last 744 will be but on page 22, there is a nice graphic as to why they are downsizing the fleet. Amazing how NRT-LHR profits went up 16.9% with going from a 744 to a 777-300ER.

Very interesting document Centrair - thanks.

Does anyone know what a "green shoe option" is (also on page 22 of the document) - I have not heard this term before.
N707PA - Best looking commercial aircraft ever.
 
AvObserver
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RE: JAL Best Hope For 748i Breakthrough

Tue Sep 11, 2007 12:40 pm

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 28):
Quoting Bmacleod (Thread starter):
I feel the best hope for a major 748i breakthrough will be JAL the largest operator of 747s.

Not them or any one else. Boeing really missed with this plane; the freighter version they were spot on, but a passenger version? No WAY, all present 747 operators with the exception of LH will go to either 787/350/777 only or a combo of these and 380's no one really seems interested in the 748I. There haven't even been any reliable rumors, BA included of more than a passing interest in the plane. It too big or not big enough for the 747 operators, who want to expand. Airbus has done a good job with their sales team attracting potential 747 operators to the 380, with the capacity for expansion. The 748 i is dead, IMHO. Certainly with JAL, they are moving to smaller planes. Too bad for the 748i though, would have liked to flown on it. Looks like boxes will be the only things carried by the 748... ?

WAY too early for you to make such a prognostication. Airlines continue to evaluate the 748I, even if some are using it as a wedge to drive down A380 prices. Some will likely see it as a complementary A/C to the 380, as LH does. It's vastly less mass compared to the A388 and newer-gen 787 engines will provide a compelling argument with some, despite the reduced seatcount. I don't see huge sales for the Intercontinental but I could see several more operators picking them up. The LH CEO's comment a few months ago about the the -I being "brilliant when you don't need the extra capacity (of the A380) will surely resonate with them as it appeared to be doing with ILFC, though they've yet to commit. Sure, it's a niche A/C but don't count it out of the VLA passenger segment just yet.

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