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cygnuschicago
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WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Mon Sep 17, 2007 10:31 pm

Some points from today's WSJ article:

Quote:

Boeing Co.'s top leaders say it is possible to overcome a nearly four-month delay in the 787 Dreamliner program and deliver the first jet on time in May... After running into a critical shortage of aerospace fasteners to hold the airplane together, Boeing was forced to delay the first flight of the Dreamliner from August to what now looks like sometime in mid-November to mid-December. Company officials surprised many people in the aerospace industry -- including some of Boeing's suppliers -- when they said two weeks ago that they nevertheless still plan to deliver the first airplane on time.
"We looked at each other and said, 'Are they kidding?'" said a senior Boeing supplier who listened in on the conference call in which Boeing broke the news to Wall Street analysts and reporters.

The schedule is so tight that Boeing officials say they need to have about 42 airplanes mostly ready for delivery by the time the test-flight program is completed. If that doesn't happen, delays could cascade through the production schedule for as long as two years.

According to interviews with several suppliers, Boeing was as much as eight months late delivering detailed specifications to the companies that were expected to do the bulk of the manufacturing of the airplane and its systems. Boeing officials acknowledge that they contributed to the initial delays, but they said "recovery plans" had largely eliminated those setbacks.

John Plueger, president and chief operating officer for Los Angeles-based International Lease Finance Corp., said he isn't that concerned about a modest delay. "Nobody's going to care if the plane turns out to be two or three months late as long as it does everything Boeing has promised," he said. With more than 70 planes on order, ILFC, a unit of American International Group Inc., is the largest Dreamliner client.

A spokesman for Japan's All Nippon Airways Co., which ordered 50 Dreamliners and is scheduled to take the first delivery in May, said that while the airline is still planning for an on-time delivery, "a delay wouldn't affect us that much" because it is scheduled to replace an existing fleet of Boeing 767s. "We'd just keep flying the 767s until the plane was ready," he said.

I can't remember, but what was the delay Leahy forecast for first flight?
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flysherwood
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:13 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Thread starter):
I can't remember, but what was the delay Leahy forecast for first flight?

Who gives a SH**!!!!  Wink

He should worrry about his own problems!  Yeah sure
 
Glom
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:54 am

As long as the delay is less than a year, it will look like a triumph of punctuality.
 
aa1818
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:58 am

I do hope Boeing can deliver on their promises. I suppose it makes no sense to admit defeat but to outright state that it will be on time is sticking your neck out. I suppose, though we can rest assured that the delay will be no more than about 3 months if there is in fact a delay in delivery!!

Also- the article specifically mentions 42 airplanes needing to be ready...how many are ready or almost ready as of today??

AA1818
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cygnuschicago
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:06 am

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 4):
I suppose it makes no sense to admit defeat but to outright state that it will be on time is sticking your neck out.

Hmm, I actually think it's a good thing. I understand the whole marketing philosophy about under-promise and over-deliver, but I love it that Boeing has the guts to set aggressive stretch targets. Looks like their customers would be okay with a slight schedule slip, but nothing beats a great target to get the engineers fired up. I think they can do it!

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 2):
Who gives a SH**!!!!

Considering everytime he as much as utters two words in public, we get a 200-post thread on a.net, it seems just about everyone on this board is interested in what he has to say, including you, as you ignored everything on the 787 and commented on Leahy  Smile
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DAYflyer
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:17 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 3):
As long as the delay is less than a year, it will look like a triumph of punctuality.

At least compared to the A-380.

But any delays will have some Airbus folks saying, "see...we told you so".
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flysherwood
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:17 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 5):
including you, as you ignored everything on the 787 and commented on Leahy

Just responding to your post Cygnus. Had you left him out of it, I would have commented on the actual subject. As for Leahy, he must have one hell of a skeleton closet that only he knows about!  Wink
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:20 am

If Boeing pulls off May 2008 delivery, it will be one hell of an accomplishment. I don't think anyone certified an all-new plane in six months, let alone commercial airliner.

Time will tell.

In the meantime, I hope our friends (IAD787, Clickhappy) will keep us up with the latest scuttlebutt from the assembly floor  Wink
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Stitch
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:32 am

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 4):
Also - the article specifically mentions 42 airplanes needing to be ready...how many are ready or almost ready as of today?

None at this time, since only LN0001 has begun final assembly. Boeing expects to have six completed and in service for testing and certification by January 2008 and will then begin serial production of the "customer" units that will go straight from the factory to customers (while the first six are sent to Texas to be converted to customer-spec).

42 strikes me as way too many to have done by May-June 2008, since they're planning on delivering 112 through December 2009. I would think they'd be more likely to have 10-12 "ready to go" by then.
 
sstsomeday
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:45 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 5):
I understand the whole marketing philosophy about under-promise and over-deliver

It seems Boeing is taking a marked departure from that characteristic attitude, though. I hope they aren't blowing smoke and mirrors (the way Airbus did with the 380, finally announcing a huge delay which they probably knew about internally for a while.) A predictable delay that Boeing is not forthright about would hit their stock price, in my view.

It's difficult to believe that they can keep to their schedule by catching up from a near-four month delay, especially since the A/C is so innovative on many fronts. The flight testing time would be severely compressed. It already seemed bizarre to me that they would debut the A/C with fake fasteners and with the cabin not at all ready. Is that typical of unveiling's? Seems to me they rushed it.

I have no idea of what is going on behind the scenes there, of course, but I hope they continue to take the high road, so that hey don't risk taking a credibility hit later.

I'm a Boeing fan, but as you can see, I hold them to a high standard.
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tdscanuck
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:14 am

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 4):
Also- the article specifically mentions 42 airplanes needing to be ready...how many are ready or almost ready as of today??

L/N 1 is being built in the factory right now. L/N 2 is being stuffed with systems at the suppliers. L/N 3 is one of the structural test frames and should be shipping to Everett soon (might be here already).

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 10):
It's difficult to believe that they can keep to their schedule by catching up from a near-four month delay

Keep in mind, it's only the first flight that is under a four-month delay. That's actually a relatively small part of the total program...most of the rest is business as usual.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 10):
It already seemed bizarre to me that they would debut the A/C with fake fasteners and with the cabin not at all ready. Is that typical of unveiling's?

That's pretty normal. Unveiling is for show only.

Tom.
 
starrion
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:18 am

Well I for one owe Clickhappy an apology. Back before Boeing came clean, Clickhappy got roasted for telling us the program was going to be late. Apparently the mandated reporting for public companies isn't as stringent as I thought, because Boeing had to know they were going to be late for a few weeks before 9/5.

So given that Boeing "expects" a May EIS, but is still trying to pull off certification in 6 months, does June or July sounds more reasonable?

[Edited 2007-09-17 19:19:57]
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ER757
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:25 am

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 10):
It's difficult to believe that they can keep to their schedule by catching up from a near-four month delay, especially since the A/C is so innovative on many fronts. The flight testing time would be severely compressed. It already seemed bizarre to me that they would debut the A/C with fake fasteners and with the cabin not at all ready. Is that typical of unveiling's? Seems to me they rushed it.

I think they did rush the rollout due to the PR value of the 7/8/07 date. I, like you, hope they can meet their target date, but it is going to be an exteremly tough mark to hit. I admire them for sticking to their guns, and if there is in fact an imminent delay, hope that they let everyone know as soon as they are sure. Nice for them that two of their largest 787 customers have publicly stated that a short delay is no big deal. I think that takes a little heat off them should things fall behind.
 
siromega
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:31 am

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 4):
Also- the article specifically mentions 42 airplanes needing to be ready...how many are ready or almost ready as of today??

Zero.

However the 42 number is interesting. Working backwards from June 2 (first work day of June) and assuming that the line will geared up for production around the beginning of January (after they've finished production of the first eight - six flight test and two plastic birds), its a little bit less than two aircraft a week (23 weeks, 42 aircraft).

I wonder about the ability to produce them at that rate.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:33 am

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 4):
Also- the article specifically mentions 42 airplanes needing to be ready...



Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
42 strikes me as way too many to have done by May-June 2008, since they're planning on delivering 112 through December 2009. I would think they'd be more likely to have 10-12 "ready to go" by then.

I think it was first reported by Aviation Week earlier this summer that Boeing allegedly planned to have 42 aircraft ready for delivery by the time of certification [scheduled for 4/30/08]. This was copied by other media, e.g.
http://www.ainonline.com/news/single...locks/?no_cache=1&cHash=720f1b584f

As Stitch points out, that doesn't make sense. I presume it rather should have read '43 by the end of 2008'.
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:35 am

Quoting ER757 (Reply 13):
I admire them for sticking to their guns, and if there is in fact an imminent delay, hope that they let everyone know as soon as they are sure. Nice for them that two of their largest 787 customers have publicly stated that a short delay is no big deal. I think that takes a little heat off them should things fall behind.

Yup, agreed. I'm also sure they're giving their customers a lot more info than they're giving the general market, so I don't expect any angry 787'ers.

I have no doubt that it is possible to catch up, but that has a trade off. Delivering quicker, is going to increase development cost. No doubt Boeing project managers will be constantly managing the financial trade-offs between meeting EIS targets, and increasing development spending. They may conciously make a decision to be late to avoid ballooning development costs.
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abba
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:40 am

This definately is a "seeing is believing". It's time for Boeing to come clear and get real and publish a realistic (and not only possible) timetable for EIS. What we have seen is a fixed EIS and a still further and further delayed FF with a more and more compressed test phase as a result.

No matter whether they are able to get the plane through the certification process or not in a still shorter test phase the issue remains whether they will be able to identify and solve the most horrendous of any new design's teething problems before EIS. If I were a CEO of an early delivery airline I would be P****** in my pants night and day as the test period increasingly shortens. I you find the 346 a nightmare as far as EIS teething problems are concerned - just wait and see what the Dreamliner will turn into if Boeing is to keep their original EIS.

Abba
 
captainx
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 2:55 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Thread starter):
Boeing was as much as eight months late delivering detailed specifications to the companies that were expected to do the bulk of the manufacturing of the airplane and its systems. Boeing officials acknowledge that they contributed to the initial delays, but they said "recovery plans" had largely eliminated those setbacks.

Only recently the requirements for the software were baselined by Boeing. Honeywell and many other software suppliers are finally able to develop and document their applications (over 40), and most are many months away from delivering non-beta versions to the integration lab. I expect this area will keep the 787 on the ground well into next year.
 
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:13 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 8):
If Boeing pulls off May 2008 delivery, it will be one hell of an accomplishment. I don't think anyone certified an all-new plane in six months, let alone commercial airliner.

Good thing certification started long ago then...

Seriously, why do people think that the first flight is the beginning of certification. For a new type, there are a lot of other parts to certification, including all the systems and materials, all tested on the ground first.
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Rheinbote
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:17 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 15):
As Stitch points out, that doesn't make sense. I presume it rather should have read '43 by the end of 2008'.

Arrrrg..make that 42.
 
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Stitch
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:24 am

Quoting Abba (Reply 17):
This definitely is a "seeing is believing". It's time for Boeing to come clear and get real and publish a realistic (and not only possible) timetable for EIS. What we have seen is a fixed EIS and a still further and further delayed FF with a more and more compressed test phase as a result.

Just because those of us with little to no experience in building a commercial airliner feel May 2008 is not a "realistic" timetable should not mean that those with a great deal of experience in building a commercial airliner should also feel that May 2008 is not a "realistic" timetable.

I have no real reason to not give Boeing the benefit of the doubt at this time, even if I have my own reservations and skepticism that they can actually make it, because they know more then I do at this point in time.
 
andessmf
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:39 am

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 10):
The flight testing time would be severely compressed.

Depends on how many frames they have ready for testing and how much of that testing can occur in a certain time frame. If a typical 787 was to be tested for 6 hours a day prior, is there anything that stops them from testing that airplane for 10 hours a day to catch up?
 
swallow
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:33 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Thread starter):
I can't remember, but what was the delay Leahy forecast for first flight?

The Seattle Times quoted JL as saying that suppliers told him that the Dreamliner would be up to six months late.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...aerospace/2003615147_airbus13.html

Quoting CygnusChicago (Thread starter):
Company officials surprised many people in the aerospace industry -- including some of Boeing's suppliers -- when they said two weeks ago that they nevertheless still plan to deliver the first airplane on time.
"We looked at each other and said, 'Are they kidding?'" said a senior Boeing supplier who listened in on the conference call in which Boeing broke the news to Wall Street analysts and reporters

In both instances the suppliers seem to be out of step with what Boeing is saying publicly. We are not told which suppliers were interviewed or what their role in the program is. Time will tell if Boeing will pull it off. But if the suppliers have doubts and they are the ones at the coal face, then EIS/delivery may slip.
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BoomBoom
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:53 am

Quoting Abba (Reply 17):
I you find the 346 a nightmare as far as EIS teething problems are concerned - just wait and see what the Dreamliner will turn into if Boeing is to keep their original EIS.

Was the A346 nightmare due to a compressed flight testing schedule?

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 6):
But any delays will have some Airbus folks saying, "see...we told you so".

They already are. I guess it makes them feel better about the two-year A380 delay. But they should keep in mind this simple formula:

A380=Major Delays-Minor Sales
B787=Minor Delays-Major Sales
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siromega
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:55 am

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 22):
If a typical 787 was to be tested for 6 hours a day prior, is there anything that stops them from testing that airplane for 10 hours a day to catch up?

From what has been said around here before, the back end analysis of flight test data might be the hold up. I'm sure they can round up pilots to flight test this thing. The issue is are there enough engineers and computers on the back end...
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 5:26 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 19):
Seriously, why do people think that the first flight is the beginning of certification. For a new type, there are a lot of other parts to certification, including all the systems and materials, all tested on the ground first.

...because ground and computer modelled testing is only minor part of the story. The flight tests are to verify the modelled behaviour of an aircraft and - if necessary - make any corrections needed. There is only so much that can be done on the ground or in the sim. You still need to test the frame in flight, see how it responds to stalls, high G-force envirovement, extreme weather and climate conditions, etc., etc. The only way to make sure the aircraft is truly safe and well-build is to toss it around in the air quite a few times.
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ER757
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 5:52 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 24):
Would show guts admitting Leahy was right by folks that insulted him then.
https://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/3303963

IMO Boeing has a good chunck of the press in the pocket. They basicly repeat what Boeing exec´s say. Half the world knows meeting the EIS is highly unlikely, but they prefer to avoid the subject, give them the benefit of the doubt and pick quotes that support the official Boeing line.

I'm not trying to pick on you Keesje, just using your post to illustrate a point. This whole A vs B thing, especially in relation to EIS delays has gotten very old and is beyond silly. Boeing fans who delight in the A380 delays and Airbus fans that hope for and expect a 787 delay so they can "fight back" are not true aviation fans at all. I'd think we'd all be excited to see a new aircraft type up and flying for the world's great carriers no matter who built the damned thing. I for one wish Boeing the best even if I have doubts as to whether they can pull it off. I also wish Airbus success not only with the A380, but with the A350. Can't we all just enjoy these new and awesome aircraft for what they are rather than turn this into a silly pissing match?
 
abba
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 6:06 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
I have no real reason to not give Boeing the benefit of the doubt at this time, even if I have my own reservations and skepticism that they can actually make it, because they know more then I do at this point in time.

"Seeing is believing" in my case.

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 25):
Was the A346 nightmare due to a compressed flight testing schedule?

I have no clue and find the question irrelevant.

Abba
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 6:16 am

Quoting ER757 (Reply 28):
I also wish Airbus success not only with the A380, but with the A350. Can't we all just enjoy these new and awesome aircraft for what they are rather than turn this into a silly pissing match?

Completely agree with you. Well said.

Unfortunately, it's going to remain a pipedream. So far, the hardcore A fans have been constrained in criticism of the 787, but I expect that if there is a delay, those constraints will disappear. After the ongoing Airbus slanging, I expect some B-Boosters will learn that "payback is a bitch".

All-in-all sad for those that want to enjoy one of the more exciting times in modern aircraft development.
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texfly101
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 7:07 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 16):
Yup, agreed. I'm also sure they're giving their customers a lot more info than they're giving the general market, so I don't expect any angry 787'ers.

That is a definite...as that is who should be kept informed. Boeing has no fiduciary responsibility to the general public to keep updated other than what has been stated in the press conferences.

Quoting Abba (Reply 17):
It's time for Boeing to come clear and get real and publish a realistic (and not only possible) timetable for EIS.

Why? Just because the A.net crew is demanding that to happen? Get real, the only people that will be updated on a real time basis are the suppliers and buyers.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
I have no real reason to not give Boeing the benefit of the doubt at this time, even if I have my own reservations and skepticism that they can actually make it, because they know more then I do at this point in time.

This is very true. I will say that no one really knows the date. It is a moving target, very dependent on a chain of events that can be worked successfully or can be thrown off by something as seemingly minor as a fastener. Every day has its new set of problems and each day has its set of problems worked and settled. We won't know until the structural item passes its tests. Look for that to happen and then start counting the days to EIS. Flight test won't go into full swing until certain structural tests are complete and validated. Then the full load that needs to be completed will be known and a real EIS determined. Anything up to that point is pure specualtion.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 7:41 am

Quoting Abba (Reply 29):
I have no clue

Well at least you got the first part of your answer right.

Quote:
and find the question irrelevant.

You're the one who drew the connection between a compressed testing schedule and teething problems.  Yeah sure
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
albird87
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 7:48 am

Quoting SirOmega (Reply 14):
its a little bit less than two aircraft a week (23 weeks, 42 aircraft).

I wonder about the ability to produce them at that rate.

Didnt boeing say that they could produce one in 3 days??
Well if they want to get these 42 done by may.... expect to see those 744LRFs spend most of their time in the air for the next 6 months with a very very high ultilisation!!
 
sstsomeday
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 7:53 am

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 22):
Depends on how many frames they have ready for testing and how much of that testing can occur in a certain time frame. If a typical 787 was to be tested for 6 hours a day prior, is there anything that stops them from testing that airplane for 10 hours a day to catch up?

I'm not an expert at this, but it seems to me that a a lot of the flight testing is likely sequential. That is to say:

Test A is followed by Test B, which decides what direction C will take. Then a new test D is created to assess the data of the first tests. etc. I understand that there would likely be a basic schedule of testing to be covered, but some of the testing would be improvisational based on how the testing is going, and that is what I would categorise as "sequential" testing, which would evolve unpredictably.

Further, one would assume that a certain number of of coordinated engineers and pilots would be participating in the flight testing program. To compress the program would require more personnel who still have to know, to some extent, what each other are doing.

My point is, I would imagine that flight testing is already done as expeditiously as possibly anyway, because the revenue stream doesn't start until the delivery stream begins. So I wonder how compressible the flight testing schedule would be in the first place.
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tdscanuck
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:16 am

Quoting Starrion (Reply 12):
Apparently the mandated reporting for public companies isn't as stringent as I thought, because Boeing had to know they were going to be late for a few weeks before 9/5.

The reporting mandates don't say that you have to make the news public as soon as you know, they just say that you have to tell the public at the same time as you tell anybody else (i.e. analysts).

Quoting Abba (Reply 17):
If I were a CEO of an early delivery airline I would be P****** in my pants night and day as the test period increasingly shortens.

Why? No airline is going to launch 787 service on a route that they can't cover with another aircraft and for replacements (which is what most of the early customers are doing) they're not going to get rid of the old aircraft until the new one arrives and checks out. It would be annoying, not p*** your pants.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 22):
If a typical 787 was to be tested for 6 hours a day prior, is there anything that stops them from testing that airplane for 10 hours a day to catch up?

They currently have 24/7 testing support...not clear how much of that will be hours in the air.

Tom.
 
siromega
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:55 am

Quoting Albird87 (Reply 31):
Didnt boeing say that they could produce one in 3 days??
Well if they want to get these 42 done by may.... expect to see those 744LRFs spend most of their time in the air for the next 6 months with a very very high ultilisation!!

That one every 3 days quote is for a while. I would expect one every week by the end of 2008 and ramp up to the one every 3 day by the end of 2009. Maybe.
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:16 pm

Reading the WSJ article, it said the 777 took about 3 months from power-on to first flight. That appears incorrect (much like the 42 aircraft by May 2008 tidbit), since an IEEE paper I found written by one of the people involved quoted January 1994 for the power-on of the 777. That was roughly five months before the first flight in the first half of June 1994.

If you consider that the 777 had a similarly sophisticated SIL (systems integration laboratory) -- for 1994 -- to iron out systems integration kinks before the first airplane was ready, and that the WSJ article says the 787 won't be powered on before mid-October, a first flight in the mid November - mid December 2007 timeframe seems awfully optimistic... mid October power-on + ~5 months = mid March 2008. I would be interested in any concrete evidence (besides official schedule pronouncements) that the 787 will proceed from power-on to first flight so much faster than the 777 did. Integration is a bitch, and she hasn't been tamed to that extent by better computers and tools... or has she?
 
abba
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:00 pm

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 33):
Why? No airline is going to launch 787 service on a route that they can't cover with another aircraft and for replacements (which is what most of the early customers are doing) they're not going to get rid of the old aircraft until the new one arrives and checks out. It would be annoying, not p*** your pants

Of cause they can cope untill the 787 arrives. The problems might only start after that. The testing period might not only prove that the aircraft is safe; but also allow for a number of its teething problems to be dealt with before EIS. Shorten the test period as much as Boeing is doing right now - and the number of teething problems to be dealt with after EIS will increase. No matter what - it is never nice for an airline to have their passengers deboard a brand new 787 due to tech problems in order to get them on an old wreck on its way to the dessert.

Abba
 
Ken777
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:09 pm

Just how much can Boeing get done between now and EIS.

On the testing side they can maximize the time the test planes are in the air each day/week. It seems to me that this compressed testing is closer to teal life commercial operations and will show glitches faster than a casual pace based testing.

Unless there is a major design problem that requires a major component to be changed Boeing can be ramping up production at the component level for the production 787s now and having a nice number ready for customers. 42 sounds like a nice number.  Smile

And then there are the customers who would probably be very happy to "use" their planes before delivery for pilot training, acceptance testing, route testing, developing MX expertise, etc. Just because the planes are built and checked out doesn't mean they have to be lined up at Boeing's field. Only the formal acceptance and final payment are needed for formal delivery after EIS. In this scenario all planes tested and found acceptable by the airlines will be ready to go into commercial service very quickly.

And that, to me, is the advantage the 787 has over the 380 - 30 to 40 planes flying in commercial operations within a month or so of EIS.
 
StoutAirLines
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:23 pm

Quoting Starrion (Reply 11):
Well I for one owe Clickhappy an apology. Back before Boeing came clean, Clickhappy got roasted for telling us the program was going to be late. Apparently the mandated reporting for public companies isn't as stringent as I thought, because Boeing had to know they were going to be late for a few weeks before 9/5.

SEC and Sarbanes-Oxley reporting requirements pertain only to events materially impacting revenue recognition and financial health. A delay to first flight does not qualify since, so far, it has not caused a slide to delivery date.

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 32):
Further, one would assume that a certain number of of coordinated engineers and pilots would be participating in the flight testing program. To compress the program would require more personnel who still have to know, to some extent, what each other are doing.

My point is, I would imagine that flight testing is already done as expeditiously as possibly anyway, because the revenue stream doesn't start until the delivery stream begins. So I wonder how compressible the flight testing schedule would be in the first place.

You're absolutely right. And as a veteran of certification test programs at Boeing, I know firsthand that testing will literally go on day and night and weekends to get the job done on schedule. It's amazing how motivated these people are.
 
grantcv
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:24 pm

Why are the fasteners holding up completion of Ship One, and yet not impacting all the other planes coming down the line? If there aren't enough fasteners to even complete one plane, surely there aren't enough to build any planes? I am just wondering because it would seem that the needs for a single plane relative to the needs of 42 planes coming down the line would be fairly insignificant. When is the point that the production of fasteners can meet or exceed the need? It had better be very very soon I would think.
 
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Stitch
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Tue Sep 18, 2007 9:34 pm

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 39):
Why are the fasteners holding up completion of Ship One, and yet not impacting all the other planes coming down the line?

Because the fasteners being provided are likely being diverted to the other frames. LN0001 needs extensive internal work before it's ready to be completely screwed together, so it makes sense to divert constrained components to the other frames that are in a more complete condition to get them together, so less time needs to be spent at PAE putting them together and when, hopefully, the fasteners will not be so constrained.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:10 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 35):
I would be interested in any concrete evidence (besides official schedule pronouncements) that the 787 will proceed from power-on to first flight so much faster than the 777 did. Integration is a bitch, and she hasn't been tamed to that extent by better computers and tools... or has she?

Theoretically, she has. Boeing learned a lot from the 777 program, including that having completely centralized control of everything is actually a little too integrated. The 787 has backed off from that somewhat so that several of the systems are more distributed and can be developed somewhat in isolation. In theory, this will help ease the integration pains.

Still going to be a mad scramble to the finish line...just like every other time.

Tom.
 
texfly101
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:24 am

Quoting StoutAirLines (Reply 38):
You're absolutely right. And as a veteran of certification test programs at Boeing, I know firsthand that testing will literally go on day and night and weekends to get the job done on schedule. It's amazing how motivated these people are.

The man knows of what he speaks

Quoting Stitch (Reply 40):
Because the fasteners being provided are likely being diverted to the other frames. LN0001 needs extensive internal work before it's ready to be completely screwed together, so it makes sense to divert constrained components to the other frames that are in a more complete condition to get them together, so less time needs to be spent at PAE putting them together and when, hopefully, the fasteners will not be so constrained.

 bigthumbsup 
 
sstsomeday
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:03 am

Quoting StoutAirLines (Reply 38):
You're absolutely right. And as a veteran of certification test programs at Boeing, I know firsthand that testing will literally go on day and night and weekends to get the job done on schedule. It's amazing how motivated these people are.

Thank you for contributing. So since that is the case, if they Boeing misses their first 787 flight target by 4 months, is it reasonable to expect that the flight testing schedule is able to be compressed by four months, in order to meet delivery targets? Or would a possible delay of the first flight typically be factored into the flight testing program, so that Boeing can accelerate the flight testing if that becomes necessary?
I come in peace
 
captainx
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:24 am

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 39):
Why are the fasteners holding up completion of Ship One, and yet not impacting all the other planes coming down the line?

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...rove-longer-term-hindrance-to.html
 
ikramerica
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:29 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 25):
...because ground and computer modelled testing is only minor part of the story.

No, it's really important. The ground testing and component testing is where they test the components to failure and for longevity. These are some of the most vital tests to perform, and they have been ongoing for quite some time.

You don't test a plane in the air to failure unless you want to lose the plane.

I know the flight testing is vital, but these claims that "certification hasn't started yet" and "certifying in six months" are pure bogus spin. The plane has been going through certification for many moons now...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:32 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 40):
Because the fasteners being provided are likely being diverted to the other frames. LN0001 needs extensive internal work before it's ready to be completely screwed together, so it makes sense to divert constrained components to the other frames that are in a more complete condition to get them together, so less time needs to be spent at PAE putting them together and when, hopefully, the fasteners will not be so constrained.

There is talk of ship #2 being the first to fly, given that it may be faster to build that aircraft in proper sequence than it will be to remediate #1. If that decision has been made, it makes sense that the fasteners are being diverted to the other frames.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
nycbjr
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:39 am

I saw that too on Flightblogger.. It makes total sense to me.

I keep hoping for a break through, I really want to see this baby fly! I went and saw it at Everett about 3 weeks prior to roll out (b4 painting) beautiful plane, I can't wait to see if fly  Silly
 
tdscanuck
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:40 am

[quote=SSTsomeday,reply=43if they Boeing misses their first 787 flight target by 4 months, is it reasonable to expect that the flight testing schedule is able to be compressed by four months, in order to meet delivery targets? Or would a possible delay of the first flight typically be factored into the flight testing program, so that Boeing can accelerate the flight testing if that becomes necessary?[/quote]

Boeing has already said there is no more slop left in the flight test schedule. If they slip 4 months beyond the current target they will not be able to meet first delivery target. However, they can keep building planes and parking them at PAE so the effect on the long-term delivery schedules shouldn't be that huge (they could catch up on the deliveries quickly after certification).

Tom.
 
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Stitch
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RE: WSJ: Boeing Expects On-time 787 EIS

Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:44 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 46):
There is talk of ship #2 being the first to fly, given that it may be faster to build that aircraft in proper sequence than it will be to remediate #1. If that decision has been made, it makes sense that the fasteners are being diverted to the other frames.

Far more important to Boeing then which frame flies first is to ensure that each frame is assembled the same way when it comes to the final assembly (so the "jury-rigging" of LN0001 for the roll-out is irrelevant in this context) so that Boeing can get a single production certificate for the whole line.

What they don't want to do is build the first few frames differently from each other and be required to secure a separate production certificate for each frame (or batch of frames, perhaps), as Airbus was forced to do with the first 24 or so A388s. That will really slow down the delivery schedule.

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