RedChili
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787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:01 am

Flightglobal has an article whic basically claims:

1. 787 first flight could slip from the mid-November to mid-December window. Reason: Fastener shortages and system installation delays.

2. The fastener shortage is deeper and more widespread than originally thought, and could cause production problems in the long run.

3. Fastener shortage is "caused by Boeing's decision to build a mostly composite airframe."

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...rove-longer-term-hindrance-to.html
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captainx
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:13 am

Did you notice the guy from Spirit admitting that they lack systems as well?
 
RedChili
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:24 am

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 1):
Did you notice the guy from Spirit admitting that they lack systems as well?

Yes. Jeff Turner, from Spirit AeroSystems, said, "When Boeing talks about needing to resequence, part of the resequencing is that, by and large, we had our structure done and the systems weren't there to integrate into that."
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keesje
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:25 am

I think the article confirms the feeling the fasteners aren´t the only problem.

The current planning for first flight and entry into service is not only very ambitious but also a bit unrealistic.

I think (almost) everybody knows deep down.

All Boeing officialy says about this is thought out by lawyers and serves a goal.
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Beaucaire
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:28 am

There is now way first revenue flight will be on-time ....
The fact that Boeing informed suppliers much to late about systems and product-specifications,the mess with the fasteners- even if they work 50% more overtime , it's mathematically impossible to meet the dates...
Boeing should have two complete planes built by now -and the first one has to be basically dismantled with thousands of wrong components-but the good components are not available..
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Stitch
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:37 am

So it's looking more and more like a rolling delay through next Summer or so as everyone catches their breath and gets squared away. The focus will likely to be to get China's birds into their hands for the Summer Olympics fly-over with the necessary...incentives...to NH and RAM to keep them happy.

So likely 2008 will be a "slow go" program and 2009 will be when production really ramps up. It is likely Boeing's customers will just apply their compensation payments to more 787 and 777 orders, so no real impact to the bottom line long-term and it helps keep those customers in the fold and away from the A350.

So in the end, like the A380, no real big deal and more benefits then demerits over all.  relieved 
 
kl911
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:50 am

Wasn't I the one who told you this months ago? By then there was already inside knowledge that there would be a delay. By then they thought 6 months total.

KL911
 
prebennorholm
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:53 am

There is something which doesn't fit any more. I mean, in early July a plane was rolled out fitted with temporary fasteners and beautifully painted. Therefore long time before 8th July Boeing has known that there was a problem getting the correct fasteners. Months before 8th July, at least some time around April or May.

Now is second half of September meaning several months after April/May. They are postponing first flight of #1 even further which must mean that they still don't have all fasteners for #1.

I can't help but asking myself, when will they get fasteners for #2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 when fasteners for #1 slip half a year? And what does that mean to the now extremely compressed test schedule? And expected EIS May/June next year?

I can't help but saying: Dear Boeing, take your time to finish off that plane and make it as successful as expected. And please tell us the truth, or tell nothing. In any case, stop that talk about those fasteners.

And dear Boeing, please lay off all those just-in-time bean counters and let the old engineers stock up what is needed. Remember, all those just-in-time junkies live next door to too-damn-late.
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sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:03 am

It doesn't matter if it slips. Boeing has a new way of flight testing planes now. The compressed testing schedule is quicker and more efficient and easier these days. They dont need the extra margin of time. Its riskier that way, but Boeing knows how to handle risk.
What matters is that the plane is designed correctly, which it is. So this news means June instead of May? Not really a problem for ANA because they'll just fly their 767s another month.
 
redflyer
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:07 am

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 9):
They are postponing first flight of #1 even further which must mean that they still don't have all fasteners for #1.

I can't help but asking myself, when will they get fasteners for #2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 when fasteners for #1 slip half a year?

The article does not talk about fasteners for #1 (or 2 - 6 for that matter). It talks about the supply of fasteners for the overall production rate...

Quote:
A deeper and more widespread fastener shortage than previously thought may continue to hamper 787 production long after the first aircraft is fully assembled and in flight test.



And...

Quote:
...the problem of fastener shortages may pose a long-term management risk for the 787. Previously, Boeing executives have said the fastener issue should be resolved after the 20th aircraft is completed on the assembly line.

The gist of the article seems to imply that even once the first birds are up and flying, it may be a long time coming before Boeing can deliver the production planes to customers on the promised delivery dates. So the question becomes one of speculation regarding when the production line will be in full swing in accordance with customer delivery schedules.
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khobar
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:13 am

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 1):
Did you notice the guy from Spirit admitting that they lack systems as well?

Yeah, the guy from Spirit specifically spoke in past tense - I did notice that. And?

Not sure why you didn't pick up on the more general "largest suppliers" comment, but I find it interesting that the plane in question is in Seattle undergoing system installation and not at the largest suppliers. Which begs the question - who does the system installation? Is it like building a house where Clogged plumbers do one thing, the Buckling framers do their thing, Sparky electric do their thing, etc. etc. ?

Quoting RedChili (Thread starter):
1. 787 first flight could slip from the mid-November to mid-December window. Reason: Fastener shortages and system installation delays.

Of course it could slip. Conversely, it might not.

Quoting RedChili (Thread starter):
3. Fastener shortage is "caused by Boeing's decision to build a mostly composite airframe."

Or it could be that the issue with temporary fasteners that helped to delay the 787's first flight date by at least three months is not limited to thousands of individual fasteners, but actually thousands of types of fasteners. The fact that the plane is mostly composite might have zip to do with it.

Quoting Aviator27 (Reply 7):
Do you care to elaborate?

He won't so he'll never be wrong.

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 9):
And dear Boeing, please lay off all those just-in-time bean counters and let the old engineers stock up what is needed. Remember, all those just-in-time junkies live next door to too-damn-late.

Well said.
 
captainx
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:16 am

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 9):
They are postponing first flight of #1 even further which must mean that they still don't have all fasteners for #1.

Yup. Not only are they short thousands of fasteners, there are over 1000 TYPES of fasteners that are needed, with many being unique to the 787. Also, the partners are suppose to order the fasteners they need, and document what parts they actually use in each hole - something they haven't been doing very well.
 
StarGoldLHR
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:16 am

It begs the question...

why did they build the plane with wrong fasterners in the first place... knowing that they would only need to dismantle it again afterwards.

it takes longer to dismantle a plane and rebuild it, then it does to build it in the first place.

Maybe they would be better of "parking" #1, building #2 and using this one for testing instead.
Then go back and do #1 in spare time.

Even Airbus learned this one.. the first A380 test frame was never built to fly it was built to prove the integrity, then MSN 001 became the first to fly... later.

I guess boeing could now pay heavy for the price of "quick and cheap".

What concerns me is, the 787 is untried and untested technology.. and with a shrunken flight test, short cuts in construction, how safe is this thing going to be in the air ? Everyone says "its going to be safe" without actually seeing it.

Maybe someone from Beoing should visit the air musuem and take a look at last time some tried new and untested technology on the cheap....The De Havailland Comet comes to mind and they have one of them sitting on their runway to remind them.
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RedChili
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:20 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 11):
The article does not talk about fasteners for #1 (or 2 - 6 for that matter). It talks about the supply of fasteners for the overall production rate...

It didn't talk about fasteners for #1 directly, but the article said that "Boeing's largest suppliers confirm that both fastener shortages and system installation delays are hampering efforts to meet the 787's new first flight window," thus implying that Boeing doesn't yet have enough fasteners to finish the assembly of #1.
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KrisYUL
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:20 am

I felt the bolt shortage was just a fortuitous delay that allowed them bonus time to work on other, more major (if I can term it that way) problems. This, whist believing there was a chance to work those major problems out in the extra time it took to resolve the bolt saga.

[Edited 2007-09-18 23:22:40]
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Stitch
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:22 am

Quoting Khobar (Reply 12):
Or it could be that the issue with temporary fasteners that helped to delay the 787's first flight date by at least three months is not limited to thousands of individual fasteners, but actually thousands of types of fasteners. The fact that the plane is mostly composite might have zip to do with it.

It's likely that the 787's CFRP structure needs different types of fasteners then an Al airliner does, which is why Boeing and Airbus can pump out Al planes to their heart's content because that is where the bulk of fastener production is currently allocated.

The problem is Alcoa and company are well behind where they expected to be - and told Boeing they would be - in terms of building fasteners for CFRP airliners.

[Edited 2007-09-18 23:25:19]
 
KrisYUL
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:24 am

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 14):
What concerns me is, the 787 is untried and untested technology.. and with a shrunken flight test, short cuts in construction, how safe is this thing going to be in the air ? Everyone says "its going to be safe" without actually seeing it.

 checkmark 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:29 am

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 14):
What concerns me is, the 787 is untried and untested technology.. and with a shrunken flight test, short cuts in construction, how safe is this thing going to be in the air ? Everyone says "its going to be safe" without actually seeing it.

What "shortcuts"? They've only working on the first one, you might recall. So they slapped it together to meet a PR stunt. BFD.

The flight test regimen is not being curtailed. It's being compressed. Instead of idling between tests, they're going to keep working the plane. If anything, they'll discover more issues then if they just "take it easy".

I have no fear of her being unsafe, just as I have no fear of any other Boeing or Airbus airliner I have been on being unsafe.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:35 am

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 13):
there are over 1000 TYPES of fasteners

That's nonsense.
 
captainx
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:45 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 20):
That's nonsense.

Read the lead article. Quoting:
"Boeing has confirmed the issue with temporary fasteners that helped to delay the 787's first flight date by at least three months is not limited to thousands of individual fasteners, but actually thousands of types of fasteners."
 
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scbriml
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:46 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 20):
That's nonsense.

Nonsense from the horse's mouth?

Quote:
Boeing has confirmed the issue with temporary fasteners that helped to delay the 787's first flight date by at least three months is not limited to thousands of individual fasteners, but actually thousands of types of fasteners.
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RedChili
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:48 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 20):
That's nonsense.

If that's nonsense, then Boeing is into speaking nonsense.

From the article: "Boeing has confirmed the issue with temporary fasteners that helped to delay the 787's first flight date by at least three months is not limited to thousands of individual fasteners, but actually thousands of types of fasteners."
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Shenzhen
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:52 am

Quoting RedChili (Thread starter):
Flightglobal has an article whic basically claims:

1. 787 first flight could slip from the mid-November to mid-December window. Reason: Fastener shortages and system installation delays.

Be ready for the name calling, as you are implying that there might be more problems with the 787 then undelivered fasteners.

Cheers
 
blrsea
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 7:05 am

From the article...

Quote:
...
Boeing attributed the fastener shortage to industrial capacity issues, blaming a wave of consolidation in the fastener industry several years ago. The new consolidated firms, such as Alcoa, he said, "misjudged" the air transport industry's rebound after 2004 and failed to invest in new capacity.
...

Clearly, Boeing knew of the fastener shortage as there was no new capacity addition in the fastener industry. Why did they still make such aggressive plans? Note that the Boeing spokeman mentions "misjudged transport industry rebound" and not "misjudged boeing's order". Appears that there was some wishful thinking when they developed the aggressive schedule.
 
prebennorholm
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 7:20 am

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 21):
Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 20):
That's nonsense.

Read the lead article. Quoting:
"Boeing has confirmed the issue with temporary fasteners that helped to delay the 787's first flight date by at least three months is not limited to thousands of individual fasteners, but actually thousands of types of fasteners."

Still that's nonsense. There are most likely many different types, but not thousands.

But that's not the only nonsense or faulty quotations found on the internet. THEY come by the thousands, even millions.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
kaneporta1
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 7:23 am

When John Leahy said a few months ago that there would be a 6 month delay, most people dismissed his comments as being nasty and envious because of the A380 delays. How have things turned...
Most people should have realized that there was no way to fly the bird on time at the rollout. I couldn't help notice that most people were being photographed next to the landing gear comprised by two chunks of metal and not much else. No actuators, electrics, brakes...
Anyway, 20 year down the line, it won't really matter.
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redflyer
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 7:33 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 27):
When John Leahy said a few months ago that there would be a 6 month delay, most people dismissed his comments as being nasty and envious because of the A380 delays.

Is the 787 6 months late? I didn't know we are in November, 2008.

By the way, lest you think otherwise, his comments were nasty and of an envious nature. Now, if they become true, it doesn't mean his comments were not nasty or envious in nature; only that he was lucky.

(By the way, Leahy has said enough dumb things about Boeing that his comments are usually taken with a grain of salt so he's not exactly someone I would point to for corroboration.)
A government big enough to take away a constitutionally guaranteed right is a government big enough to take away any guaranteed right. A government big enough to give you everything you need is a government big enough to take away everything you have.
 
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flying_727
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 8:12 am

I love how people who don't have front line knowledge of the situation know so much about what's going on.

This is my favorite.

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 4):
The fact that Boeing informed suppliers much to late about systems and product-specifications,the mess with the fasteners- even if they work 50% more overtime , it's mathematically impossible to meet the dates...

Notice there are no hard numbers in the "mathematically impossible" equation outside the 50% overtime. I have a very good grasp of the total numbers (most notably the fasteners, as it's my job), and the current first flight date is very reasonable, and unless something dramatic happens there shouldn't be another change.

Flying_727
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EI321
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 8:36 am

Quoting KL911 (Reply 8):
Wasn't I the one who told you this months ago?

And several others

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 10):
It doesn't matter if it slips

It does if your a customer. But reading above, it may be a problem that extends into the production ramp up rather than merely the EIS.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 10):
So this news means June instead of May?

If we are incredibly optimistic.

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 27):
John Leahy said a few months ago that there would be a 6 month delay

Yes I remember that, but he said up to a six month delay. Might be worth digging that one out of the archive.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 8:55 am

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 14):
Maybe they would be better of "parking" #1, building #2 and using this one for testing instead.
Then go back and do #1 in spare time.

Boeing is considering making #2 the first to fly. Last I heard that was just a contingency, but if they determine that #2 could be ready quicker that is what will happen. Don't know if/when that decision will be made.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
StarGoldLHR
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:52 am

I feel sorry for the airlines getting the first off the production line for this plane.

The first 10 or so are going to be a right bag of nails (or fasteners)  Smile these will have issues galore and things going bump sideways and west until all the bolts are tightened and the process is ironed out.

Even then that first 10 or so are going to be somewhat "troublesome" for the rest of their careers.

At least with the A380, that 2 year delay means theyve had enough time to sort the house in order and go back and clean up the starting line again.

it'll be interesting to compare reliability of the first A380's against the reliability of the first 787's after a few months of service
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Stitch
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:57 am

Quoting Blrsea (Reply 25):
Clearly, Boeing knew of the fastener shortage as there was no new capacity addition in the fastener industry. Why did they still make such aggressive plans?

Because the fastener industry claimed they could still meet the demand.

They were wrong.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 32):
The first 10 or so are going to be a right bag of nails (or fasteners).  Smile These will have issues galore and things going bump sideways and west until all the bolts are tightened and the process is ironed out.

 redflag 

The problem isn't installing the fasteners. The problem is getting them in the first place to install them. If anything, this "lackadaisical" installation process will ensure that everything is nice and tight cause they'll have plenty of time to check the torque settings. Big grin
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:20 am

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 16):
I felt the bolt shortage was just a fortuitous delay that allowed them bonus time to work on other, more major (if I can term it that way) problems. This, whist believing there was a chance to work those major problems out in the extra time it took to resolve the bolt saga.

You keep saying what you "felt" in these threads, which is fine, but it is as much wishful thinking as insightfulness. You seem almost giddy with your good fortune.

Quoting KL911 (Reply 8):
Wasn't I the one who told you this months ago? By then there was already inside knowledge that there would be a delay. By then they thought 6 months total.

And I'm sorry, you are...?

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 5):
Tip of the iceberg.

Perhaps. Oh, and by the way, thank you for leading the 787 Negativity Brigade. We all want to know the truth, good or bad. You just seem smug in your dire news briefs.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 14):
Maybe someone from Beoing should visit the air musuem and take a look at last time some tried new and untested technology on the cheap....The De Havailland Comet comes to mind and they have one of them sitting on their runway to remind them.

What the hell does the Comet have to do with anything? As if a 50 year flashback to square windows has ANYTHING to do with fastener assembly problems. Or anything else. If you think they are bungling things, don't fly the damn thing. But please try to keep the baseless comparisons to a minimum.

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 27):
When John Leahy said a few months ago that there would be a 6 month delay, most people dismissed his comments as being nasty and envious because of the A380 delays. How have things turned...

What were we supposed to do with him, listen intently to an unbiased observer? Had we listened sooner, we'd have written off composite airframes. Luckily for the A350XWB, no one at Airbus was listening either.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 32):

At least with the A380, that 2 year delay means theyve had enough time to sort the house in order and go back and clean up the starting line again.

Yes, weren't they lucky to have that wonderful delay.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 33):
Because the fastener industry claimed they could still meet the demand.

They were wrong.

You might as well stop saying that. It's become clear that the usual A vs B contingent has taken over. We might as well move on to the next new plane, as it will no longer be enjoyable to discuss the 787 on a.net.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:28 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 34):
You might as well stop saying that. It's become clear that the usual A vs B contingent has taken over. We might as well move on to the next new plane, as it will no longer be enjoyable to discuss the 787 on a.net.

Not a bad idea. And just think, in three years we'll be tearing into each other like a pack of dogs over the A350...  crying 

I will say I have a whole new level of respect for (and empathy with) the staunch A380 supporters on airliners.net. My support for her was mostly against the most egregious claims, but having to now wade into it up to my neck on a day-to-day basis trying to deflect the baseless criticism of the 787 like they had to do with the A380... You all deserve a bleedin  trophy  for your stamina.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:35 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
I will say I have a whole new level of respect for (and empathy with) the staunch A380 supporters on airliners.net.

I'm sure that you - like myself - cringed at every baseless criticism that the A380 received, because we knew that if the 787 didn't come off flawlessly, those of us looking forward to her rollout and first flight would be in a world of hurt. And here we are. It was very predictable, and cast a pall over the past year or so of the 787 development cycle, as every twitch of bad news brought back those dire expectations that one day the 787 would be drug through the mud, not because it deserved to be, but because it HAD to be.

I agree. I have an incredible amount of empathy for the A380 supporters - and an incredible amount of disrespect for many of the 787 bashers. Again, very predictable.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:42 am

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 32):
feel sorry for the airlines getting the first off the production line for this plane.

The first 10 or so are going to be a right bag of nails (or fasteners) these will have issues galore and things going bump sideways and west until all the bolts are tightened and the process is ironed out.

Well, that's always the case with early builds. When you sign a contract as a launch customer, you get great pricing, knowing that the "test" frames you take won't be as polished as the later frames. Nothing unusual.
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:49 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
I will say I have a whole new level of respect for (and empathy with) the staunch A380 supporters on airliners.net.

A curious thing: some of the worst attacks on the A380 were made by posters flying USA flags next to their names, and now the worst attacks on the B787 are coming from...the same! Many non-US members took attacks on the A380 as a US vs. EU issue. It just might be that the pool of American A.Net members is so large that the perception is skewed.

Food for thought, anyway. scratchchin 
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
StarGoldLHR
Posts: 1346
Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2004 1:29 am

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:57 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 34):
Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 14):
Maybe someone from Beoing should visit the air musuem and take a look at last time some tried new and untested technology on the cheap....The De Havailland Comet comes to mind and they have one of them sitting on their runway to remind them.

What the hell does the Comet have to do with anything? As if a 50 year flashback to square windows has ANYTHING to do with fastener assembly problems. Or anything else. If you think they are bungling things, don't fly the damn thing. But please try to keep the baseless comparisons to a minimum.

I would hardly call it baseless... when everyone was flying propjets at low altitude square windows were fine... and everyone assumed testing a passenger jet was taken for granted so much so they didnt even test it until they fell from the sky, by which time they already knew something wasnt right.

now with the 787 we are assuming carbon fibre is good as it works in yachts and cars.. so sure it will work fine in the sky...and of course I remember every last nut and bolt without missing a single one where I used a screw as a temporary fix and sure it'll be fine and of course we can deliver everything on the fast quick and cheap no problems... I fear this..

I will wait a while before flying on a 787.

it might look cool and glamourous but so did the titanic and everyone thought of everything there too !
So far in 2008 45 flights and Gold already. JFK, IAD, LGA, SIN, HKG, NRT, AKL, PPT, LAX still to book ! Home Airport LCY
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9526
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:00 am

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 39):
now with the 787 we are assuming carbon fibre is good as it works in yachts and cars.. so sure it will work fine in the sky.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but have we not yet seen CFRP used in aircraft construction?

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 39):
I will wait a while before flying on a 787.

Excellent choice sir.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
RedChili
Topic Author
Posts: 1440
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:23 am

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:04 am

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 24):
Be ready for the name calling, as you are implying that there might be more problems with the 787 then undelivered fasteners.

I'm not implying anything at all. I'm just quoting what Flightglobal says.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
ikramerica
Posts: 14961
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:13 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 2):
Yes. Jeff Turner, from Spirit AeroSystems, said, "When Boeing talks about needing to resequence, part of the resequencing is that, by and large, we had our structure done and the systems weren't there to integrate into that."

Past tense. This whole article reads like reworking of past quotes with maybe one new statement put in to make it news.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
Not a bad idea. And just think, in three years we'll be tearing into each other like a pack of dogs over the A350...

Nah, the 748 comes even sooner than that! And the 748-I EIS has already slipped by months!

And of course the A380 hasn't even been delivered or production certified yet.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 38):
It just might be that the pool of American A.Net members is so large that the perception is skewed.

Blasphemy! It's all a smoke screen!

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 39):
now with the 787 we are assuming carbon fibre is good as it works in yachts and cars..

And fighter jets and bombers and Airbus vertical stabilizers...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
redflyer
Posts: 3905
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2005 3:30 am

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:21 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 42):
Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 39):
now with the 787 we are assuming carbon fibre is good as it works in yachts and cars..

And...Airbus vertical stabilizers...

Not a good example! Maybe that is why all the negatives about CFRP and questions about the 787's safety are coming from the Airbus lovers.  eek 
A government big enough to take away a constitutionally guaranteed right is a government big enough to take away any guaranteed right. A government big enough to give you everything you need is a government big enough to take away everything you have.
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:38 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 40):
Correct me if I'm wrong, but have we not yet seen CFRP used in aircraft construction?

Just a couple notables....there are more.

Northrop B-2:


Beech 2000 Starship:
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
StoutAirLines
Posts: 53
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2007 3:09 pm

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:40 am

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 32):
I feel sorry for the airlines getting the first off the production line for this plane.

The first 10 or so are going to be a right bag of nails (or fasteners) these will have issues galore and things going bump sideways and west until all the bolts are tightened and the process is ironed out.

Even then that first 10 or so are going to be somewhat "troublesome" for the rest of their careers.

You state this as absolute fact. How do you know these things for sure? Do you work at Boeing?

Quoting Blrsea (Reply 25):
Clearly, Boeing knew of the fastener shortage as there was no new capacity addition in the fastener industry. Why did they still make such aggressive plans? Note that the Boeing spokeman mentions "misjudged transport industry rebound" and not "misjudged boeing's order". Appears that there was some wishful thinking when they developed the aggressive schedule.

Contracts were signed. Guarantees were made. Boeing was assured by the suppliers that fasteners would be available and in the needed quantity. I fail to see the conspiracy here that you do.

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 13):
Not only are they short thousands of fasteners, there are over 1000 TYPES of fasteners that are needed, with many being unique to the 787. Also, the partners are suppose to order the fasteners they need, and document what parts they actually use in each hole - something they haven't been doing very well.

For once, could you actually provide proof of your claims? Have you ever been right about anything you've ever said on A.net?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
I think the article confirms the feeling the fasteners aren´t the only problem.

Confirms the feeling? What could that possibly mean? Do you have proof of anything tangible? I must have read a different version of that article than what you did. Interesting.
 
haggis79
Posts: 535
Joined: Tue Jun 27, 2006 8:05 pm

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:46 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 38):
A curious thing: some of the worst attacks on the A380 were made by posters flying USA flags next to their names, and now the worst attacks on the B787 are coming from...the same! Many non-US members took attacks on the A380 as a US vs. EU issue. It just might be that the pool of American A.Net members is so large that the perception is skewed.Food for thought, anyway.  

well, not entirely.... I'm not gonna talk names, but some of the (US) members who have been bashing the A380 are now trying to protect the 787 at all costs.... not allowing for any doubt or critisism, as harmless or justified it may be.... same in reverse can be said for some European A380-lovers and 787-bashers...

but of course there's also the crowd who just loves to bash anything they come about, as stupid it may be...  Wink
300 310 319/20/21 332/3 343 AT4/7 143 B19 732/3/4/5/G/8/9 742/4 752/3 763/4 77E/W CR2/7/9 D95 E45/70 F50 F70 100 M11 M90
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1771
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:45 am

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:46 am

Quoting Flying_727 (Reply 29):
I have a very good grasp of the total numbers (most notably the fasteners, as it's my job), and the current first flight date is very reasonable, and unless something dramatic happens there shouldn't be another change.

That's good news. I'm still impressed that y'all are shooting for first flight less than two months after power-on, versus the five it took for the 777. I look forward to seeing her fly.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
I will say I have a whole new level of respect for (and empathy with) the staunch A380 supporters on airliners.net. My support for her was mostly against the most egregious claims, but having to now wade into it up to my neck on a day-to-day basis trying to deflect the baseless criticism of the 787 like they had to do with the A380...

 highfive  keep up the good work... There were (and are) legitimate criticisms of the A380, as there are of the 787. The trick is sorting out something resembling the truth, amongst all the international mud slinging and sacred cow defensiveness.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 42):
Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 39):
now with the 787 we are assuming carbon fibre is good as it works in yachts and cars..

And fighter jets and bombers and Airbus vertical stabilizers...

Certainly not just vertical stabilizers! An A380 contains as much CFRP, by weight, as a whole 787... (~35 tonnes of CFRP, of which ~23 tonnes is carbon fiber)
 
texfly101
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 6:42 am

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 12:03 pm

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 14):
Maybe they would be better of "parking" #1, building #2 and using this one for testing instead.
Then go back and do #1 in spare time.

Remember the above quote, he stands a good chance of being right...it wouldn't be the first Boeing plane to have #1 not be the first off the ground. Think all the way back to the XB-52 and up to current models and list the #1's that haven't flown first. But the point is that whichever is ready first will fly first. #1 has a set of unique problems just because it was the first one in the blocks. The static test models are the main line numbers to watch for. Don't get the tests done on schedule and flying is a moot point.
Think back to the way this airplane was both bid and designed. Everyone of the partners and their suppliers were working on their best guess for when they could deliver. Have one of them, this time its Alcoa, slip their schedule and it ripples thru the whole system. But you can't know what is late, what is not there, what is not going to be delivered because there is no true master list for parts like there used to be when the BOM ruled the parts ordering side of the business. Now, rather than the BOM ruling what goes on when, its a performance based contract that just promises to deliver. Have a partner's supplier not deliver, then the section doesn't get delivered, then the frame gets temporary installation plans to keep it in the flow.
How much of a delay? Who knows? We sure don't. There sure isn't any official date that is being kept secret for PR reasons or for the stock price. I can tell you this, Captain X talks only of what he hopes Boeing will fail at, Anything he has to say about the whole thing is just a negatively biased guess and he has no real knowledge. I have watched him make statements that I know from my catbird seat are just plain wrong. Its interesting to see certain people get things right, and others make very prescient guesses. I will say that JIT works great in a mature production schema. I would say that it is not the business model for a new production airplane. Just a hint to those who might read this post and aren't interested in the negative type of diatribe, look into a supplier which was supposed to deliver JIT parts on the floor. Chew on that if you can figure out how to Google the right text string.
 
XT6Wagon
Posts: 2726
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2007 4:06 pm

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 2:29 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 42):
Nah, the 748 comes even sooner than that! And the 748-I EIS has already slipped by months!

If by "slipped" you mean that the first 748 production slot available for a customer got moved 6 months or whatever due to the freighter selling out the line before that time.... then yes it slipped.

Most people view that as "you snooze, you lose", given that they could have had their 748 sooner if they ordered it sooner.
 
hnl-jack
Posts: 275
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2001 10:34 pm

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 2:50 pm

It appears that most of these posts come from individuals with too much time on their hands. Boeing will deliver a great airplane and if it's late, so be it.
 
iwok
Posts: 979
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 2:35 pm

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 2:53 pm

Quoting Flying_727 (Reply 29):
I have a very good grasp of the total numbers (most notably the fasteners, as it's my job), and the current first flight date is very reasonable, and unless something dramatic happens there shouldn't be another change.

Here's to hoping you are correct. I'd really hate to see a major delay beyond a few months come about. Seeing as I am an outsider, I'd have to assume that Carson et al are telling use the truth as much as they know it to be, and that there is no house of cards, so to speak, ready to come down. The stakes on this game are extremely high, so I can't imagine that anyone at Boeing would knowingly try to lie about any major issues.

iwok

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