swallow
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 3:19 pm

I wonder what Richard Aboulafia has to say. He has been pretty quiet of late, and so has SUH. As the largest customer he is probably kept up to date with the situation on the ground.
The grass is greener where you water it
 
GBan
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 3:44 pm

Quoting Iwok (Reply 51):
Here's to hoping you are correct. I'd really hate to see a major delay beyond a few months come about. Seeing as I am an outsider, I'd have to assume that Carson et al are telling use the truth as much as they know it to be, and that there is no house of cards, so to speak, ready to come down. The stakes on this game are extremely high, so I can't imagine that anyone at Boeing would knowingly try to lie about any major issues.

iwok

I would not call it a lie if they do not publish every detail of the problems they are working on. They might know that there will be most probably (but not: certainly) some delay to EIS and prefer to announce it when they know the magnitude and when they are sure that there are no additional surprises to come - in other words when they can make a solid statement that does not have to be corrected a couple of weeks later. As I understood from previous posts Boeing is not forced to make an announcement as long as it is still possible to catch up. Makes perfect sense to me to wait as long as legally possible and then give an accurate estimate instead of announcing new time-frames that will have to be corrected again and again (in whichever direction).
 
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keesje
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:41 pm

Spirit build the front section. The roll out aircraft had no cockpit

Quoting Aviator27 (Reply 7):
I still think Airbus takes the cake for the certification and production delay of the A380.

 laughing 

Quoting Aviator27 (Reply 7):
Do you care to elaborate?



Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 40):
Correct me if I'm wrong, but have we not yet seen CFRP used in aircraft construction?

I think the most relevant aircraft is this one. Boeing made a deal prior to 787 development for using licenced composites fuselage production technology from them.

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
sparkingwave
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:39 pm

Well, it seems that if there's anything to be learned from this, it's that delays and promised delivery dates don't seem to matter anymore. Airbus has shown that most airlines who order planes seem willing to stick it out and wait for whenever their promised orders will be delivered, for at least up to 2 years.

It's difficult and ironic to believe that small things like wiring and fasteners can trip up such ambitious aeronautical achievements like the A380 and the B787.

Despite the potential delays, I'm sure Boeing will work like a dog to get those planes ready asap, to avoid penalties. After all, how hard could it be to manufacture fasteners? This might be a good time to get into the supplier business!
Flights to the moon and all major space stations. At Pan Am, the sky is no longer the limit!
 
astuteman
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:20 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 30):
But reading above, it may be a problem that extends into the production ramp up rather than merely the EIS.

That's probably the biggest potential issue under discussion.
IMO delays in first flight + EIS will soon be forgotten when the production ramp-up gets into full swing.
It's the ramp-up itself that will be most significant.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
I will say I have a whole new level of respect for (and empathy with) the staunch A380 supporters on airliners.net. My support for her was mostly against the most egregious claims, but having to now wade into it up to my neck on a day-to-day basis trying to deflect the baseless criticism of the 787 like they had to do with the A380... You all deserve a bleedin for your stamina.

And I hope your objective support for it, as a self-declared Boeing fan was widely noticed and respected by the wider community. Maybe it'll serve as a role model when the 787 is being discussed...  crossfingers 

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 38):
It just might be that the pool of American A.Net members is so large that the perception is skewed.

I reckon that's quite possible..  checkmark 

Regards
 
ManchesterMAN
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:20 pm

Why do people have to take sides anyway? We are all aviation fans and I'm sure we all get a little excited to see a new aircraft be it from Airbus or Boeing. I can't wait to fly in both the A380 and 787 (hopefully both next year) and have been disapointed by both the huge A380 delays and the developing saga over 787 delays. Everyone should be supporters of BOTH the A380 and 787 as they both represent big technological gains and are both like no other airplane available today. Whilst people understandably support one manufacturer over another based maybe on national pride (as a European I do have a soft spot for Airbus) or some other reason, that is no reason to take pleasure when the other one fails. We must remember that both manufacturers push each other along in the development stakes and if either had a monopoly in the large aircraft market we would all suffer.
Flown: A300,A319,A320,A321,A330,A340.A380,717,727,737,747,757,767,777,DC9,DC10,MD11,MD80,F100,F50,ERJ,E190,CRJ,BAe146,Da
 
797charter
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 6:49 pm

Quoting ManchesterMAN (Reply 57):
Why do people have to take sides anyway? We are all aviation fans and I'm sure we all get a little excited to see a new aircraft be it from Airbus or Boeing. I can't wait to fly in both the A380 and 787 (hopefully both next year) and have been disapointed by both the huge A380 delays and the developing saga over 787 delays. Everyone should be supporters of BOTH the A380 and 787 as they both represent big technological gains and are both like no other airplane available today. Whilst people understandably support one manufacturer over another based maybe on national pride (as a European I do have a soft spot for Airbus) or some other reason, that is no reason to take pleasure when the other one fails. We must remember that both manufacturers push each other along in the development stakes and if either had a monopoly in the large aircraft market we would all suffer.

 checkmark   checkmark   checkmark 



You are so right!




Regards

Steen
Keep it clear of the propellers
 
Carls
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:08 pm

I would like to think that Boeing will put this bird on the sky soon, but looks like this will be another debacle.
Both AC, A380 and 787, are a huge achievements and it's hard to believe they will be delivered without any delay.
 
Vega9000
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:43 pm

Quoting GBan (Reply 51):
They might know that there will be most probably (but not: certainly) some delay to EIS and prefer to announce it when they know the magnitude

But the fact that a number of articles has appeared lately indicating some supply and systems integration problems could mean that they are preparing the ground for some sort of major ( 6 month +) delays in the program, should they occur. If not, then they come out as having solved major problems and beaten all expectations, even if the program slips something as, say, 2 months.

Quoting SparkingWave (Reply 53):
Airbus has shown that most airlines who order planes seem willing to stick it out and wait for whenever their promised orders will be delivered, for at least up to 2 years.

With only 2 major manufacturers, they don't really have that much of a choice, do they? Imagine a world with only Ford and Volkswagen producing real cars, and a few dozen others producing the equivalent of Smart Cars. If the dealer says that the new Golf you ordered is great, but is going to be 2 years late, you wait, take the discount, and that's it...
Don't believe anything you read on the net. Except this. Well, including this, I suppose.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:56 pm

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 30):
I feel sorry for the airlines getting the first off the production line for this plane.

The first 10 or so are going to be a right bag of nails (or fasteners) Smile these will have issues galore and things going bump sideways and west until all the bolts are tightened and the process is ironed out.

There is no basis for saying this. Just because there are delays in getting the right fasteners does not mean the plane will be delivered in anything less than perfect shape. The difference with the A380 is that the design of the wiring system had to be changed, and so the first 26 frames will be different than subsequent ones, with the earlier ones essentially jury-rigged to make them work. We have heard no such issue in regards to the 787.
As to the issue with the A380 fans versus 787 fans, as one of the latter I did not participate in the A380 bashing, as I was not a member then. At the time, though, I did feel that Airbus had enjoyed an unfair advantage with their government support, but I have since come to the conclusion that the disadvantage of having to answer to the politicians (particularly the French ones) more than outweighs the advantage, so personally I'm willing to call off the dogs (but it's not my call.) I have always felt that the A380 is a magnificent plane, but the wrong plane at the wrong time, and it will probably never make money. The 787 is the most ambitious project undertaken in the aerospace industry since the 747 (or maybe even the 707, considering all the new technology involved) and it is little surprise that problems are encountered. At this point it is highly likely that EIS will be delayed, but so what? Boeing has prided themselves on delivering on time, and this will be egg on their face, but it is far better to get it right. I am quite confident that they will do this.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
abba
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:17 pm

Quoting Vega9000 (Reply 60):
With only 2 major manufacturers, they don't really have that much of a choice, do they? Imagine a world with only Ford and Volkswagen producing real cars, and a few dozen others producing the equivalent of Smart Cars. If the dealer says that the new Golf you ordered is great, but is going to be 2 years late, you wait, take the discount, and that's it...

It could well be that the delay is more of a problem for the manufacturers than for the airlines as the airlines have ways to deal with the delayed extra capacity (perhaps keep flying their old 767s) and get compensated for already heavily discounted frames in terms of sweet deals. For the manufacturer the situation is different. Not only are they the ones to give the sweet deals - they are also delaying their own money flow and hence runs up a lot of interest on the funds used for he project.

Abba
 
deltadc9
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:26 pm

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 12):
shrunken flight test

Compressing a time line does not mean you are eliminating anything, besides certification requirements are not set by A or B.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 12):
short cuts in construction

Name one.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 38):
Correct me if I'm wrong, but have we not yet seen CFRP used in aircraft construction?

Amazing you have to ask that.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 38):
Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 39):
I will wait a while before flying on a 787.

Excellent choice sir.

 Yeah sure

Please, I would go on a test flight if they would let me. I have complete confidence in the engineers at both A and B.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
JAAlbert
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:29 pm

I think I want to open a fasteners manufacturing plant . . . .
 
deltadc9
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:34 pm

Quoting Aviator27 (Reply 57):
The closest most of you will ever get to the cockpit is the bulkhead between coach and first.

That was totally un called for.

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 65):
I think I want to open a fasteners manufacturing plant . . . .

Somehow I think ALCOA has erected sufficient barriers to entry for that market, and at the same time is behind. Might be a patent issue.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
DAYflyer
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:59 pm

I just read that Honeywell is one of the primary culprits behind the flight delays for the 787 due to the problems with software and flight controls.

Fair Use

The order comes at a time when Honeywell has run into difficulties on another big order with Airbus's main rival, Boeing Co .

The first test flight of Boeing's upcoming 787 Dreamliner has been pushed back by about three months due to delays in programming the flight control software, which Honeywell is providing, as well as a shortage of bolts, made by Alcoa Inc.


http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/tic...Date=20070919&ID=7497647&Symbol=BA
One Nation Under God
 
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scbriml
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:04 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 66):
That was totally un called for.

I wouldn't worry about it, he's toast!
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:08 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 64):
Amazing you have to ask that.

While most here seem to know the answer, you'd suspect otherwise by all of the "never tried before" comments.

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 64):
I have complete confidence in the engineers at both A and B.

As do I. But if StarGoldLHR doesn't, then it is indeed an excellent choice to not be on a flight. No one wants him harshing their mellow.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
deltadc9
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:13 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 69):
No one wants him harshing their mellow.

 cool  No, we wouldnt want that! Too funny.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 69):
While most here seem to know the answer, you'd suspect otherwise by all of the "never tried before" comments.

The persistance of this myth is amazing, when there is so much information here and on the net to the contrary.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
khobar
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:17 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 21):
If that's nonsense, then Boeing is into speaking nonsense.

But it's not Boeing doing the speaking in the article - it's the reporter telling us Boeing has confirmed this or that. One might ask, "what's the difference" to which I'd say "interpretation, translation, deadlines, etc."

Quoting Flying_727 (Reply 27):
Notice there are no hard numbers in the "mathematically impossible" equation outside the 50% overtime. I have a very good grasp of the total numbers (most notably the fasteners, as it's my job), and the current first flight date is very reasonable, and unless something dramatic happens there shouldn't be another change.

Boeing has a 50% of getting the plane up in November, a 50% chance it'll be December, a 10% chance it will be October, a 60% chance it will be January.

You like those odds?  Wink

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 30):
I feel sorry for the airlines getting the first off the production line for this plane.

Don't feel sorry - they got the big discounts and, if things get out of whack, they'll get the big bonuses.
 
blrsea
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:54 am

Aerospace Notebook: Fastener shortage holding back 787

Quote:
...
I put the question to John Byrne, director of common commodities and supply chain strategy for Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

"The fastener industry will have to work hard just to keep pace with demand, and will have to do even more than that to get healthy," Byrne said.

The root of the shortage goes back to the industry downturn that was already under way at the time of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

...
The biggest challenge, Byrne said, has been hiring skilled workers and getting the fastener factories restaffed fast enough for round-the-clock production to meet demand.

"What's challenged everyone in the industry has been the robust growth across all market segments," Byrne said.

...
Byrne said the lead time in ordering raw materials has increased from about 16 weeks in some cases to as long as 60 weeks.

In addition, new airplane programs are always challenging for the fastener industry. The 787, for example, requires a number of new kinds of fasteners that must be tested and qualified. And this takes time away from production.

"It all created a tidal wave," Byrne said of the confluence of events.

...
Boeing won't say how many fasteners are used in the 787, only that the total number is about 80 percent fewer than what would be needed for an aluminum plane.

The 767, a slightly smaller Boeing jet that the 787 is designed to replace, has about 1.8 million fasteners.
...
"It's a fundamental industry problem," Byrne said. "It is not purely supply and demand."

"It's probably going to be with us for a couple of years," he added.
 
texfly101
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:12 am

Just a word on the fasteners. They are an amazingly complex piece of materials technology and engineering. There is a need to do a lot of different functions other than just holding two pieces of the fuselage together. Dissimliar metals, double material inserts, lightning protection current passage, etc. There is a need to do lots of different functions in very specialized locations and assembly methods. Try and do all that calls for some extremeley different material technology methods and manufacturing processes. All of which have to pass muster by the FAA. Hence the problems that Alcoa et al are having with ramping up to get production to match demand. And have to be consequently pass QA tests prior to shipping to all of the partners and Boeing and then be having to be tracked to the end item installation plan sign off (and that in itself is a new process with it not having the old QA bug stamp but rather a computer program QA tracking system). Complexity on top of complexity. So you just can't go out and pick a fastener out of a catalog, buy a box and start assembling pieces. Its as complex a process as forming the barrels. Someday, they will be the focus of doctoral dissertations...as will be the whole 787 saga. Have fun guys, I know I am.
 
KrisYUL
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:13 am

Quoting Blrsea (Reply 72):
"It all created a tidal wave," Byrne said of the confluence of events.



Quoting Blrsea (Reply 72):
"It's probably going to be with us for a couple of years," he added.

Not words of optimism. Doesn't look good.
Flown on: L1011, A310, A332, A333, A319, B732, B752, B763, CRJ100, CRJ200, DC9, DHC-8-100
 
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Braybuddy
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:40 am

This is looking more-and-more like the mess that Airbus got itself into over the A380. CaptainX's claims are looking increasingly credible, unfortunately for Boeing and the 787 programme.

It's unbelievable that the two manufacturers, with all the know-how and experience they've acquired over the years, now look like bumbling amateurs.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:43 am

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 19):
Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 20):
That's nonsense.

Read the lead article.



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 20):
Nonsense from the horse's mouth?



Quoting RedChili (Reply 21):
If that's nonsense, then Boeing is into speaking nonsense.

  

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 24):
Still that's nonsense. There are most likely many different types, but not thousands.

    

Quoting Khobar (Reply 71):
But it's not Boeing doing the speaking in the article

According to the transcripts, McNerney's words were:
> ANALYST: Can you talk a little about fasteners? You talk about thousands of them. Are they tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands?
> MCNERNEY: No, thousands. I think it is thousands of types, some of which are more than one fastener, but I think we have a lot of temporary fasteners in that first airplane, that are now being reworked.

I hold McNerney in high respect, heck I admire him. I can imagine he's not happy with the wording himself, but that's how interviews go. Been there, done that.

[Edited 2007-09-19 18:54:31]
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:46 am

Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 75):
It's unbelievable that the two manufacturers, with all the know-how and experience they've acquired over the years, now look like bumbling amateurs.

Sometimes one's reach exceeds one's grasp, I guess.

Fortunately, neither company was very high off the ground when it happened.

So in 2009 we'll be talking how the A380 is plying the world's largest hubs and Boeing is delivering their 100th 787 and all the strife of the previous three years will be but bad memories buried in unread archives.
 
KrisYUL
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:49 am

Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 75):
It's unbelievable that the two manufacturers, with all the know-how and experience they've acquired over the years, now look like bumbling amateurs.

I think the slapping together a plane with hardware store bolts takes the cake. I'd never want to fly on the first 787 knowing it had been hacked together then rolled around with a bunch of improper parts holding it together.

Frankly, I’m shocked ANA is even willing to accept that plane and that Boeing is even willing to deliver it. If a headline ever reads “Hardware store plane crashes”, lawsuits will fly in its place.
Flown on: L1011, A310, A332, A333, A319, B732, B752, B763, CRJ100, CRJ200, DC9, DHC-8-100
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:02 am

I thought the bashing of Airbus and the A380 was extreme at times, but it appears that folks decided to "kick it up a notch" with the bashing of Boeing and the 787. I expect the main topic of discussion about the A350 will be that it molests children.  Sad

Now that the A380 is in (essentially) in service, that puts two years of utter hell to bed. But now we have eight to twelve months of utter hell while people rip the 787 apart. And then once she takes to the skies, it will be time to bash the A350. Then the 737RS. Followed by the A320RS.

 white 

No thanks.
 
TomB
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:02 am

I wonder how much legal liability Alcoa has for the late delivery of fasterners to the Boeing 787 program? I would assume that Boeing supply contracts have provisions for penalties for late deliveries.

Using some rough estimates, I would assume that fasterners cost less than $1 million per B-787 aircraft yet the delay in the delivery of fasterners has probably cost Boeing and its major subcontractors over $100 Million in travel costs, overtime, work arounds plus potential late delivery payments to airline customers.

If Alcoa was fully liable for the delays in the supply of fasterners, I could easily see that liability exceeding $100 Million.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:04 am

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 78):

Solution; don't fly on it. Problem solved.

HEADLINE SHOKKAS:

-ANA makes it's own decisions about the business it's been doing for years, without consulting the experts on Airliners.net. Still manages to, somehow, keep planes in the air. Experts baffled.

-Boeing execs see the light and turn plastic plane into pencils and boats. "Jeez, aren't our faces red", says one. "What were we thinking? What the heck do we know about building planes? Good thing those fortune tellers on A.Net showed us all the light so we had time to sell everything and move to Aruba. Thanks A.Net.".
What the...?
 
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SEPilot
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:30 am

Quoting TomB (Reply 81):
I wonder how much legal liability Alcoa has for the late delivery of fasterners to the Boeing 787 program? I would assume that Boeing supply contracts have provisions for penalties for late deliveries.

Be assured that any contracts will have clauses limiting liability to less than what Boeing paid for the fasteners. I doubt whether they exceed 10%. Your estimate of $1 million per 787 is probably way low; aircraft fasteners are extraordinarily expensive. I overhauled my Cessna 182 engine a few years ago; one of the requirements was to replace all hardware. That alone was several hundred dollars; the same bolts from the hardware store would have been less than $30. That's what happens when every one must be individually inspected and certified; and when you add in the fact that most of them are going to be unique to the 787, and most of them are titanium, the bill is going to be high indeed.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Rheinbote
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:46 am

If the fasteners are the only problem in assembly, even when causing nasty repercussions on build sequence now, the Boeing design and manufacturing teams will for sure pop a bottle in the end. Quality and fit issues would be of far greater concern, but there seems to be much less of these than anyone from the outside would have expected.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:50 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 86):
If the fasteners are the only problem in assembly, even when causing nasty repercussions on build sequence now, the Boeing design and manufacturing teams will for sure pop a bottle in the end. Quality and fit issues would be of far greater concern, but there seems to be much less of these than anyone from the outside would have expected.

Boeing has said they feel confident the "out of round" issues that cropped up with LN0001 will be fixed when it comes time to start attaching LN0002 together.  crossfingers 
 
caminito
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:56 am

Does the support of this thread regarding the first flight is only the phrases in the captioned Flightglobal article ?

Quote:
Meanwhile, Boeing's largest suppliers confirm that both fastener shortages and system installation delays are hampering efforts to meet the 787's new first flight window from mid-November to mid-December.

The reference to the "largest suppliers" seems rather vague.
Who did make the statement the suppliers are now confirming ?

Quote:
Boeing has confirmed the issue with temporary fasteners that helped to delay the 787's first flight date by at least three months is not limited to thousands of individual fasteners, but actually thousands of types of fasteners

When Boeing did make such statement ? And assuming they used such term, logic dictates that "thousands" meant "many"!
 
deltadc9
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 3:00 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 85):
the same bolts from the hardware store would have been less than $30.

That is an interesting point, you can, for example, buy the same grade 8 aviation quality bolts at your local nut and bolt wholesaler but that is not sufficient. It has to be inspected and certified beyond that. Its still the same bolt.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:00 am

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 78):
I think the slapping together a plane with hardware store bolts takes the cake.

How exactly do you think the first few SQ A380 frames were wired, before they had to strip it out and redo it?

Now, how about stopping the "sky is falling posts" and getting constructive. You're going out of your way to ruin this for what I believe is the majority of posters here, just like the "whalejet" crowd has been doing for the past two years.
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
RIHNOSAUR
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:07 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
t's likely that the 787's CFRP structure needs different types of fasteners then an Al airliner does, which is why Boeing and Airbus can pump out Al planes to their heart's content because that is where the bulk of fastener production is currently allocated.

The problem is Alcoa and company are well behind where they expected to be - and told Boeing they would be - in terms of building fasteners for CFRP airliners.

vvery well said stitch I really thinks this is a major concearn for them....

Quoting Blrsea (Reply 23):
Note that the Boeing spokeman mentions "misjudged transport industry rebound" and not "misjudged boeing's order". Appears that there was some wishful thinking when they developed the aggressive schedule.

it does sounds like there might be some of this wishfulness going round at Boeing right now...
Just as a speculation (like many of us here do often), it DOES make sense that, since the 787 is the world's first MASS produced composite plane with (as in logical and) a considerably higher number of parts to join (as compared to some of the other composite planes out there), that there REALLY is a true shortage of fasteners that will take a while to catch up.....or in other related words ...the is no BIG incentive for producers like ALCOA to worry too much about the 787 right now as compared to the Al aircraft industry... In which case I would be very worried if I were boeing

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 30):
it'll be interesting to compare reliability of the first A380's against the reliability of the first 787's after a few months of service

very interesting question indeed...
which kind of answers the statement below:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 31):
The problem isn't installing the fasteners. The problem is getting them in the first place to install them.

BUT if their wait time to install is too long then their install time is compromised, which could potentially compromise the installation itself because they have to do it faster...and doing things faster means there is more room to make mistakes...
particles and waves are the same thing, but who knows what that thing is...
 
YULWinterSkies
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:07 am

Well, no good news for anybody. Ironically, the A380 will be in revenue flight before the 787 even takes off! Ha ha! Airbus might be  champagne  eventually!
When I doubt... go running!
 
KrisYUL
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:12 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 87):
Now, how about stopping the "sky is falling posts" and getting constructive. You're going out of your way to ruin this for what I believe is the majority of posters here, just like the "whalejet" crowd has been doing for the past two years.

I think I am entitled to my opinion just as much as you are. What you are suggesting is called censorship.
Flown on: L1011, A310, A332, A333, A319, B732, B752, B763, CRJ100, CRJ200, DC9, DHC-8-100
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:17 am

Quoting RIHNOSAUR (Reply 88):
BUT if their wait time to install is too long then their install time is compromised, which could potentially compromise the installation itself because they have to do it faster...and doing things faster means there is more room to make mistakes...

Yes there is that risk. Boeing will be under a great deal of pressure to get LN0007 (the first "production" 787 and the first one scheduled for delivery to NH) out on time if they are able to stay close enough to plan, so they will need to take care that they don't push it too fast as the delay of doing it wrong is always more then the delay of doing it correctly.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:19 am

Quoting RedChili (Thread starter):
3. Fastener shortage is "caused by Boeing's decision to build a mostly composite airframe."

That doesn't make any sense at all. A metal fuselage uses *far* more fasteners than a composite one.

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 7):
I can't help but asking myself, when will they get fasteners for #2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 when fasteners for #1 slip half a year?

One of the reasons that L/N 1 is so short is that production fasteners are being diverted to #2+ to make sure those are ready to go when they arrive. L/N 1 structure was mostly empty when it arrived so replacement of the fasteners was reasonably possible. L/N 2 will have much more stuffed sections and replacing the fasteners will be far more work...it is more important to get production fasteners on L/N 2+ than on L/N 1.

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 7):
Dear Boeing, take your time to finish off that plane and make it as successful as expected. And please tell us the truth, or tell nothing.

They are telling the truth. You're free to believe them, or not.

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 7):
And dear Boeing, please lay off all those just-in-time bean counters and let the old engineers stock up what is needed.

If we did that, the old engineers would be out of a job.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 12):
why did they build the plane with wrong fasterners in the first place... knowing that they would only need to dismantle it again afterwards.

Because Boeing needs to test the final assembly system in Everett, which they can only do with actual airplane parts.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 12):
Maybe they would be better of "parking" #1, building #2 and using this one for testing instead.
Then go back and do #1 in spare time.

That's exactly what's happening, in effect, now.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 12):
What concerns me is, the 787 is untried and untested technology..

Most of it has been tried, and all of it has been tested.

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 18):
Quoting CaptainX (Reply 13):
there are over 1000 TYPES of fasteners

That's nonsense.



Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 24):

Still that's nonsense. There are most likely many different types, but not thousands.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but CaptainX is right...there are thousands of fastener types.

Take a typical fastener class, say 100-degree flush-head rivets. There will be 2-3 material choices, at least 6 diameters, probably 3-4 coatings, and ~10 lengths. That's 720 distinct types of fasteners for *one* type of hole and attachment.

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 37):
now with the 787 we are assuming carbon fibre is good as it works in yachts and cars.. so sure it will work fine in the sky...

There is CFRP flying all over the place today, including in all current Boeing and Airbus production aircraft.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 52):
Spirit build the front section. The roll out aircraft had no cockpit

Spirit builds the front section *structure*. They just install the flight deck, which is supplied by another vendor.

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 65):
I think I want to open a fasteners manufacturing plant . . . .

If you can get qualified quickly, you can make oodles of cash.

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 78):
I think the slapping together a plane with hardware store bolts takes the cake. I'd never want to fly on the first 787 knowing it had been hacked together then rolled around with a bunch of improper parts holding it together.

Shouldn't you care about the configuration it's in when it's delivered, not the configuration before it's even built? It would be illegal to delivery it, or put it in revenue service, with improper parts. Doing so could result in Boeing losing their production certificate.

Quoting TomB (Reply 81):
I would assume that Boeing supply contracts have provisions for penalties for late deliveries.

Yep.

Tom.
 
deltadc9
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:23 am

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 90):
I think I am entitled to my opinion just as much as you are

Informed, relevant, and realistic yes, otherwise it is simply AvsB flamebait.

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 90):
What you are suggesting is called censorship

Check out the reasons for suggested deletion.......
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
KrisYUL
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:28 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 93):
Informed, relevant, and realistic yes, otherwise it is simply AvsB flamebait.

Funny, I don't remember such calls for calm when it was the A380 being talked about. That sure is a curious coincidence!

For the record, many suggested that SQ ought not take the first A380 because of its problems. The first 787 had its structure fooled around with by having improper, ill-fitting and missing bolts as it was yanked around for people to see. Much worse IMO.
Flown on: L1011, A310, A332, A333, A319, B732, B752, B763, CRJ100, CRJ200, DC9, DHC-8-100
 
Rheinbote
Posts: 1103
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:38 am

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 92):
Take a typical fastener class, say 100-degree flush-head rivets. There will be 2-3 material choices, at least 6 diameters, probably 3-4 coatings, and ~10 lengths. That's 720 distinct types of fasteners for *one* type of hole and attachment.

Okay, then what's the total number of fasteners, of all types, in one 787?
 
deltadc9
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:41 am

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 94):
Funny, I don't remember such calls for calm when it was the A380 being talked about.

Then you obiously missed most every reply to every unfounded post about the A-380.

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 94):
yanked around

You mean towed, like every other airliner in existence?

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 94):
improper, ill-fitting and missing bolts

Source? Temporary fasteners are in the plane, what you claim is an outright lie.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
drexotica
Posts: 150
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:42 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 67):
I just read that Honeywell is one of the primary culprits behind the flight delays for the 787 due to the problems with software and flight controls.

After recently reading 21st Century Jet (making of the 777) as well as being in software development, this does not seem too surprising. In 20+ years of software development, I've yet to be part of a project that was shipped on time.
N707PA - Best looking commercial aircraft ever.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:43 am

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 94):
Funny, I don't remember such calls for calm when it was the A380 being talked about. That sure is a curious coincidence!

Likely because you joined last month.  Smile

A lot of us called for calm when the A380 and Airbus was getting slammed day in and day out on this board for over two years. That crap wasn't fun then with the A380, it sure isn't fun now with the 787, and it won't be fun in 2012 with the A350 or 2013 with the 737RS or 2014 with the A320RS.

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 94):
For the record, many suggested that SQ ought not take the first A380 because of its problems. The first 787 had its structure fooled around with by having improper, ill-fitting and missing bolts as it was yanked around for people to see. Much worse IMO.

The fasteners Boeing used had little to no problems because they were chosen that way. Boeing didn't want to attach them with "flight-resistant force" because then they would have been a pain in the arse to remove and might have damaged the structure.

And I can guarantee you that as planes are moved on production lines, they are moved without every single fastener installed. And yet somehow the planes don't fall apart as they're being moved nor after they start flying in revenue service.

People are blowing problems out of proportion either due to sheer ignorance or sheer stubbornness and pre-conceived (and incorrect) notions of how things work. It's like a game of "telephone" where someone hears something incorrectly (or wants to hear it incorrectly) and no matter how many times they're shown it's not correct, they still insist that it is.
 
KrisYUL
Posts: 100
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:25 am

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:46 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 98):

Likely because you joined last month.

Don't need to join to read....
Flown on: L1011, A310, A332, A333, A319, B732, B752, B763, CRJ100, CRJ200, DC9, DHC-8-100
 
deltadc9
Posts: 2811
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:00 pm

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 4:53 am

Quoting DrExotica (Reply 94):
In 20+ years of software development, I've yet to be part of a project that was shipped on time.

I have, we call it "Phase 1"  Silly
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
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BlueSky1976
Posts: 1881
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RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:15 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 76):
Now that the A380 is in (essentially) in service, that puts two years of utter hell to bed. But now we have eight to twelve months of utter hell while people rip the 787 apart. And then once she takes to the skies, it will be time to bash the A350. Then the 737RS. Followed by the A320RS.

This is going to be way off topic, but I'm with You on this one. We're supposed to be aviation fans here, cheering for any new airliner, business jet or GA aircraft getting in the air... Instead, there are many sensless posts that only lead to some stupid "B is better than A", or "A is better than B" nonsense... I'm not going to call any names here, but people really need to chill out and go outside to take in some fresh air before they start looking for the first chance to bash either A380 or 787 or whatever... Granted, I'm no angel and I have expressed my thoughts about some aircraft on this forum, but everything I said was from my own aesthetical taste, not from some stupid bias towards either manufacturer. I judge the aircraft by its looks defined by my own taste (I don't like doubledeckers, that's why I'll never be a fan of 747 or A380, and so I don't like the "elevator-ahead-of-the-fin" design, hence my disliking of all Cessna single engine planes). Of course Airbus basher will always remain Airbus basher and so will Boeing basher... thankfully, this forum is still - mostly - a pleasure to read, especially from the people who create productive and informative posts (you know who you are). It's just a shame that some here instead of being aviation fanatics are just some pom-pom waving team cheerleaders (once again: you know who you are). And its sad to see that those people are here just to take cheap shots at their opponents repeatedly (once again: you know who you are).

End of OT on my part.
Tarriffs are taxes. Taxation is theft. You are not entitled to anything.
If it's a Boeing, I'm not going.
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: 787 First Flight Could Slip Even More

Thu Sep 20, 2007 5:22 am

Quoting YULWinterSkies (Reply 86):
Ironically, the A380 will be in revenue flight before the 787 even takes off! Ha ha!

Ironic? In what way?

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 91):
I don't remember such calls for calm when it was the A380 being talked about.

Members were banned for making incessant attacks on Airbus and the A380. Pickled fish. wink 

Quoting KrisYUL (Reply 96):
Don't need to join to read....

Then your memory is selective or altogether faulty. old 
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