sh0rtybr0wn
Posts: 373
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 8:16 am

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Sat Sep 22, 2007 9:38 am

I think the best thing for UA would be to keep flying their old widebodies for a while and get into a better financial situation.

Then they should buy 24 A380's to replace the 747s and A350s ( a fleet of 800s , 900s, and 1000s , maybe 80 total with options for more) to replace the 767s. I know the A350-800 is bigger than the 767 but so what, think big.

Waiting along time to receive the planes actually helps UA, and Airbus would bend over backwards to accommodate a large order from UA.

Its about time some American airline stepped up and got the A380 and UA could really use them on Australia and pacific routes. Plus, flying the A380, UA would be the ultimate in transpacific luxury among American carriers. If SQ, LH, EK et al. can find a way to make money flying the A380, UA can too.
 
phlwok
Posts: 453
Joined: Mon May 28, 2007 11:41 am

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Sat Sep 22, 2007 11:20 am

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 50):
I think the best thing for UA would be to keep flying their old widebodies for a while and get into a better financial situation.

Agreed.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 50):
Then they should buy 24 A380's to replace the 747s and A350s ( a fleet of 800s , 900s, and 1000s , maybe 80 total with options for more) to replace the 767s. I know the A350-800 is bigger than the 767 but so what, think big.

I'm not sure I get the math here. UA currently has 30 744s, 35 or so 763ERs (some domestic), and 52 772s (a mix of A and ER models, with around 6-8 A's domestic, from memory). Replacing 30 744s with 24 380s would require a reduction in current 747 routes, or a shift of some of the 777 fleet to cover the routes. Based upon their delivery dates, these planes don't necessarily need to be replaced at the same time, either. Are you thinking that the 350 can be both a 763 and 772 replacement? I could see that being possible, but I'm not sure the timing would be right particularly to replace the 777 fleet.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 50):
Waiting along time to receive the planes actually helps UA, and Airbus would bend over backwards to accommodate a large order from UA.

I think the allure of a big order will prompt the usual marketing and discounting war between Airbus and Boeing. The better fiscal shape that UA is in, the better for their negotiations and financing.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 50):
Its about time some American airline stepped up and got the A380

If it makes financial sense, someone will eventually.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 50):
and UA could really use them on Australia and pacific routes. Plus, flying the A380, UA would be the ultimate in transpacific luxury among American carriers. If SQ, LH, EK et al. can find a way to make money flying the A380, UA can too.

I think there are a few transpac routes that, _today_, UA might be able to use a 380 - US-China routes where they have sole US carrier route authority, LAX-SYD, and certain HKG flights. I'm less certain that IAD/ORD-FRA can fill 380s as there's a preference for frequency when combining the LH and UA capacity on these routes, and I don't think there's any other route to Europe that UA currently serves that could benefit from a 380 today, particularly with their LHR reductions in recent years.

I think the 380 case for UA becomes more troublesome when you look at the future. The routes where they have heavy and/or premium traffic and are currently benefiting from treaty-limited competition are likely to decrease in number - particularly with future new carriers and routes on US-China, and even Australia could open up some if SQ or someone else is able to increase the carriers flying between the countries. One way to compete when this happens is to try to have the better schedule, and if the route can support it, you can do that with more frequencies. This traffic fragmentation is not the type of situation that the 380 is best for.

If UA were to order its first widebody replacements today and I had to put money on what type it'd be, I'd say the 773ER to replace the oldest 744s. But they're not in a position (nor have a need) to do so today, and things could be very different when they are ready. I'm not saying UA can't use the 380 at all, but I really doubt that they will, at least not anytime soon.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Sat Sep 22, 2007 11:43 am

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 46):
The talk of slots in airports like NRT is to some degree irrelevant since an airline like NW has a set number of slots but a number of those are used for intra Asia service. If they can use the 787 to fly direct from the US to more of those other Asia markets, they no longer need those slots to the Asian cities and can reallocate them to additional service to the US.

This is why I've never expected NW to order new VLAs. On the other hand, UA have only two or three NRT slots used for intra-Asia flights. SIN, BKK, HKG?

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 50):
Its about time some American airline stepped up and got the A380 and UA could really use them on Australia and pacific routes.

UA need twelve VLAs for seven routes from their hubs to PEK, PVG, and NRT. All of their other Pacific flights could be replaced by 787s or A350s. The 747-8 is probably too large for UA to fly to OZ given the rising competitive pressures. QF can get away with larger aircraft on the OZ-US routes because they have a better product.

Quoting PHLwok (Reply 51):
UA currently has 30 744s, 35 or so 763ERs (some domestic), and 52 772s (a mix of A and ER models, with around 6-8 A's domestic, from memory).

With the exception of a dozen JumboJets and perhaps about a dozen 767s, all of UA's widebodies could be replaced by 787s or A350s.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:17 pm

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 50):
Its about time some American airline stepped up and got the A380 and UA could really use them on Australia and pacific routes. Plus, flying the A380, UA would be the ultimate in transpacific luxury among American carriers. If SQ, LH, EK et al. can find a way to make money flying the A380, UA can too.

Virgin Australia (or whatever the name will be) will commence TPAC flights next year with new B773ER's.. bigthumbsup .....add QF running the Big Beast on said routes and we see a lot of extra capacity added in the next 2-3 years.....I doubt UA would want to compete on that end.....the B773ER (which can be acquired within the next 2-3 years) would increase RASM and keep yields for UA at a decent level......
"Up the Irons!"
 
sh0rtybr0wn
Posts: 373
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2007 8:16 am

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:35 pm

Quoting PHLwok (Reply 51):
Are you thinking that the 350 can be both a 763 and 772 replacement?

Yes 800, 900 , and 1000. The perfect 767 replacement is 787-8 but i think fleet commonality would outweigh the more perfect size match on the lower end of the seat count range.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 53):
the B773ER (which can be acquired within the next 2-3 years) would increase RASM and keep yields for UA at a decent level......

I thought if you ordered a 777-300ER you have to wait until at least 2011? Anyway, I think overall, UA missed the 300ER window, and its better for them to wait a few more years and get in on the dawn of the era of the A350 ( especially since they dont have alot of cash for new planes right now ). UA is in the same boat BA is in, why get 300ER now, just wait for 787-10 or 11, or A350.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:38 pm

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 54):
I thought if you ordered a 777-300ER you have to wait until at least 2011?

There are 777 slots available for 2010 delivery.
 
HPAEAA
Posts: 1138
Joined: Mon May 08, 2006 7:24 am

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Sat Sep 22, 2007 1:15 pm

Quoting Dl767captain (Reply 19):
i doubt it will be anything smaller than the 748, they need the capacity on asian routes. The A380 seems a little too bihlg for them on all 744 routes, so mayne a very small A380 order and the rest 748. Maybe the A350 for a 777 replacement but definately not a 744 replacement

True, but in the short term these routes remain flight restricted, however the longer term, and given the direction of open skies and the expansion of markets, I think the capacity will become less of an issue as new players enter into the markets... CO, DL, AA, US, NW (to an extent), and NK have eliminated (if they ever had them) any a/c larger than the 777 due to the market's demand for frequency... I think UA is feeling the same demand and will favor more mid size a/c over the super capacity... I think once the markets in AP move towards open skies (with limited exceptions (NRT etc...)) the demand from American carriers for large A/C will drop (unless they get 5th degree freedom rights).. B did right developing the 787, and the limited need (and cost) 748...
1.4mm and counting...
 
socalfive
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2001 5:37 am

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Sat Sep 22, 2007 1:48 pm

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 21):
As someone stated, for Chicago based UA to not buy Chicago based Boeings would be a real slap in the face

WHO CARES? I mean, WHO the HELL CARES??? They're going to buy the best equipment for their needs not to make someone in their same damned zip code happy. Whether they come from Europe or the US or Jupiter or Neptune, nobody and I mean nobody in the real business world gives a frog's fat ass who builds it. Bullocks to Chicago, slaps to the face, what the hell kind of statement is this? All they're going to do anyway is fly the 744s until there's no more life in them whatsoever, which given UA ought to be about six months after they manage to get them all painted, so we're talking DECADES and in other words a non-issue... NEXT?
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Sat Sep 22, 2007 2:46 pm

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 54):
I think overall, UA missed the 300ER window

....how so? The first B773ER was delivered just a few years ago to AF and many carriers aren't going to be getting their B773ER's for the next 2-3 years...

The A350-10 won't be available until probably 2015-2016 (due to previous orders, EIS, etc)...that gives a carrier at least a good 5-7 years....
"Up the Irons!"
 
UA772IAD
Posts: 1329
Joined: Sat Jul 10, 2004 7:43 am

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Sun Sep 23, 2007 2:17 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 52):
This is why I've never expected NW to order new VLAs. On the other hand, UA have only two or three NRT slots used for intra-Asia flights. SIN, BKK, HKG

HKG has been discontinued to allocate the 744/777 elsewhere. There is also ICN, and TPE service.
 
UA772IAD
Posts: 1329
Joined: Sat Jul 10, 2004 7:43 am

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Sun Sep 23, 2007 2:27 pm

Quoting Penguinflies (Reply 48):
To bring it back into focus, United never has been loyal to one manufacturer. Douglas, Boeing, Convair, Airbus have all been painted in United Colors (to name a few).

So what? So has AA, DL, CO... therefore, WN might be your only "loyal" Boeing customer in the US. Reading the history that you provided (thanks!) you have just proved that UA is pretty loyal to Boeing.

Quoting Socalfive (Reply 57):
WHO CARES? I mean, WHO the HELL CARES??? They're going to buy the best equipment for their needs not to make someone in their same damned zip code happy. Whether they come from Europe or the US or Jupiter or Neptune, nobody and I mean nobody in the real business world gives a frog's fat ass who builds it. Bullocks to Chicago, slaps to the face, what the hell kind of statement is this? All they're going to do anyway is fly the 744s until there's no more life in them whatsoever, which given UA ought to be about six months after they manage to get them all painted, so we're talking DECADES and in other words a non-issue... NEXT?

I respectfully disagree. This isn't SQ or EK. The decision will be based on what's good for the Company (UA) as a whole. And buying "American" certainly does have its advantages.
 
N77014
Posts: 812
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2004 7:16 pm

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Sun Sep 23, 2007 3:18 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 5):
I think airlines like UA needs raw capasity premium space for their Asian flights. Replacing it with smaller types on their hard fought slots in Asia isn't a realistic option..

Again, you fail to understand that the US is too large for UA to concentrate Asia flying ex one hub, like SFO.

Premium passengers are seeking a nonstop solution to get from A to B. So, to get passengers from JFK, IAD, ORD, SEA, LAX, SFO to PVG, PEK, NRT, NGO, HKG, ICN, TPE, SIN, SGN, MEL, BKK, etc, on point to point flying will begin to prevail.

The necessity of multiple stops via fortress hubs like NRT have begun to lose their appeal.
A new life awaits you in the Off-World Colonies...
 
dl767captain
Posts: 1206
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2007 8:51 am

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Mon Sep 24, 2007 5:02 am

Quoting HPAEAA (Reply 56):
True, but in the short term these routes remain flight restricted, however the longer term, and given the direction of open skies and the expansion of markets, I think the capacity will become less of an issue as new players enter into the markets... CO, DL, AA, US, NW (to an extent), and NK have eliminated (if they ever had them) any a/c larger than the 777 due to the market's demand for frequency... I think UA is feeling the same demand and will favor more mid size a/c over the super capacity... I think once the markets in AP move towards open skies (with limited exceptions (NRT etc...)) the demand from American carriers for large A/C will drop (unless they get 5th degree freedom rights).. B did right developing the 787, and the limited need (and cost) 748...

By the time the A350 is available, and the 748s and A380s could be delivered to UA i think restrictions will have gone down. DL is proving to be a fast growing competitor and with many new 772LRs on order they will become even more of a threat. and with CO and NW ordering 787 and DL and AA probably soon to follow i think the biggest plane UA will need will be the 748. UA is introducing new seats that take up a lot of room and they already need more capacity but i think the 773 would be a little too small for those routes and the A380 too big. The 748 would fit perfectly with their 777s right now. The only way i could see UA ordering the a380 is if they merged with another legacy carrier, which is another thread all together.
 
flydreamliner
Posts: 1928
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 7:05 am

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Mon Sep 24, 2007 5:48 am

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 16):

That assumption does not make any sense. UA is less dependent on the 767 than just about any other U.S.A. international carrier and the 787 is supposed to be a 767 replacement. Sure the projected 787-10 would have capacity similar to the 772 but with less comfortable, narrower seats. UA's general preference has been to mostly fly to international destinations that can support at least a 772. They will be a big customer for whatever eventually replaces the 777.

Less comfortable? Perhaps in high density 9 abreast, but in 8 abreast, like other American carriers NW and CO are planning to use, it's more comfortable. 787 would allow UA to replace 767 and 777 with one type, which would be nice.

The other reason UA has so many 777s is that they are in a generally low density, high premium configuration of 253/258 seats. This is comparable to many other carriers A330-200s and 767s. UA's 767-300ER's have 193 seats, fewer than some of their competitors 767-200ERs. So really it might be a bigger plane, just not more seats, generally speaking.

Quoting FlyIGuy (Reply 24):
I can see UA picking up used 744's from Qantas before buying new aircraft just as they did with some of the Qantas 100's back in the day....

Not likely... UA's 747-400s are PW4000 powered. Why would they want a small subfleet of RR RB211 powered 747-400s? They could probably pick up some 747-400s with PW4000 power from Singapore though, if they wanted them. They'd probably take some more 777-200ERs with PW power if they could get them too.

Quoting PM (Reply 29):
But I also happen to think that UA will buy A350s or A380s or both. I'm not even convinced that it's too late to see A330s in the (awaful) UA livery. We'll see...

A380 has 50% more floor area than 747-400. It's just TOO big for many of UA's routes, like their west coast to europe and some of their hong kong routes.

It just isn't flexible. I'm not sure they want a bigger plane. I see them more in between something 777-300ER sized and 747-8i sized... closer to what they have now. A350 is possible but A350-1000 is a bit on the small end of what they'd need for a 744 replacement... and A350-800 is too big to replace the 767s.

Quoting PHLwok (Reply 51):
I'm not sure I get the math here. UA currently has 30 744s, 35 or so 763ERs (some domestic), and 52 772s (a mix of A and ER models, with around 6-8 A's domestic, from memory). Replacing 30 744s with 24 380s would require a reduction in current 747 routes, or a shift of some of the 777 fleet to cover the routes. Based upon their delivery dates, these planes don't necessarily need to be replaced at the same time, either. Are you thinking that the 350 can be both a 763 and 772 replacement? I could see that being possible, but I'm not sure the timing would be right particularly to replace the 777 fleet.

UA needs a bigger longhaul fleet. Not necessarily bigger planes. They need at least 30 744 replacements, they need probably 120 combined 777 and 767 replacements. They had to sell off planes to get some cash when they were hard up, that isn't to say they didn't need them. They have lots of high potential routes and just not airplanes. IAD-DEL, IAD-TLV, SFO-CAN (when they get authorization) more Australia flights, potentially IAD-HKG, picking up a bit more of the transatlantic flying from LH, DEN-LHR, and more long haul out of LAX. Also, they have room to grow to South America as well.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 52):
This is why I've never expected NW to order new VLAs. On the other hand, UA have only two or three NRT slots used for intra-Asia flights. SIN, BKK, HKG?

they also run NRT-TPE and NRT-ICN... they recently dropped NRT-HKG when they started SFO-TPE.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
UA772IAD
Posts: 1329
Joined: Sat Jul 10, 2004 7:43 am

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Mon Sep 24, 2007 6:59 am

Quoting N77014 (Reply 61):
The necessity of multiple stops via fortress hubs like NRT have begun to lose their appeal.

While I agree with your general premise, NRT has certainly NOT lost any appeal. Rather, UA is adding additional flights, in addition to it's NRT Intra-Asia flights. UA has a very large customer base in Tokyo. I don't see them cutting anything more than they have to (such as NRT-HKG- which will probably return once UA gets more aircraft).
 
zvezda
Posts: 8886
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: UA's 744 Fleet

Mon Sep 24, 2007 7:07 am

Quoting UA772IAD (Reply 64):
NRT has certainly NOT lost any appeal. Rather, UA is adding additional flights, in addition to it's NRT Intra-Asia flights. UA has a very large customer base in Tokyo. I don't see them cutting anything more than they have to (such as NRT-HKG- which will probably return once UA gets more aircraft).

Once UA have A350s or 787s, they will be serving airports like BKK and SIN nonstop and adding to nonstops to HKG, TPE, and ICN rather than serving them from NRT. UA will probably also add flights to KIX and NGO. Also, as NRT adds runway capacity, the slots restrictions will ease.

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