jacobin777
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:06 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 71):
Quoting Gemuser (Reply 69):
NONE of this is worse on the A380 than it is on the B744, B773 or A346. There may be some specific location problems, such as blocking adjacent gates, but you think this does not happen now?

It's much worse than that. Because of the WhaleJet's unprecedented wingspan, taxiways have to be moved or WhaleJets can only taxi either when a another runway or taxiway is closed or when a row of gates is empty of longer aircraft depending on where the taxiway is located.

 checkmark ...that is how SFO will operate when (if) an A380 comes to SFO.....
"Up the Irons!"
 
parapente
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:12 am

In terms of when BA get the 787 (if they order it). I thought that airlines were offered the opportunity to put down small deposits that tied up potental delivery slots.They have (quite rightly) never been made public. Whether there were time limits (say now or have it returned) again has not been made public. However considering how perfect a fit the 787 is for a 767 replacement I would be surprised if BA had not taken this decision.
 
addrenaline
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:13 am

BA 's choice will simply be for the product that is :
1. Greener, better for the environment !
2. Whichever product gives BA more oportunity for growth, due to slot availability at LHR.
Remember dispite what you hear about inpending 3rd runway slots at Heathrow are a big issue, and with open skies there value and availability will diminish. Delta, Continental, US airways, Northwest and our services to DFW IAH and ATL will all be moving to LHR...

With this in mind the A380 is certainly prime target and if the A350 is greener than the B787 believe me Boeing will loose out..

The environment effect is Big with BA and Willie...

Add
 
caminito
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:19 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 96):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 93):
As we know the market is currently growing at 5% per year, that means 25% in 5 years
[quote=TeamAmerica,reply=96]The bulk of any increase in BA's markets will be carried by LCC's. The last thing BA needs in the face of LCC competition is excess capacity

Many A-netters which believe that the market, especially the A380's, will grow strongly (example: 5%/year as Keesje posts), also seem to believe that the enormous expansion plans of the Near East and Southeast Asia carriers are realistic. The market for the A380s is located in a high percentage within this region and the Far East, where such airlines as EK, QR, SQ, QF and other minor, in addition of LH and AF, will introduce huge numbers of A380 (these airlines counting for about 80% of the current 165 orders for this aircraft model)

Therefore, within such scenario, it would seem that BA would be very happy to be able to maintain their present pax numbers in this let's call it "A380 apt market", further eroded by the P2P flights and the LCC factor, let alone to expect any significant grow.

[Edited 2007-09-25 17:23:29]
 
T773ER
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:24 am

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 102):
With this in mind the A380 is certainly prime target and if the A350 is greener than the B787 believe me Boeing will loose out..

I don't think BA will make a decision based solely on environmental impact.
 
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keesje
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:36 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 100):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 71):
Quoting Gemuser (Reply 69):
NONE of this is worse on the A380 than it is on the B744, B773 or A346. There may be some specific location problems, such as blocking adjacent gates, but you think this does not happen now?

It's much worse than that. Because of the WhaleJet's unprecedented wingspan, taxiways have to be moved or WhaleJets can only taxi either when a another runway or taxiway is closed or when a row of gates is empty of longer aircraft depending on where the taxiway is located.

...that is how SFO will operate when (if) an A380 comes to SFO.....

Will a BA 787 fit all 767 gates? I think it carriers much more seat too.. we must worn BA on the gates..

  

Quoting Caminito (Reply 103):
Many A-netters which believe that the market, especially the A380's, will grow strongly (example: 5%/year as Keesje posts)

Even worse Boeing, Rolls & Airbus Too ..   
http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/g...fs/2_gmf_demand-for-air-travel.pdf
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/images/lg_highlights_cmo07.gif
http://www.rolls-royce.com/civil_aer...look/downloads/outlook06-09-07.pdf

Quoting Caminito (Reply 103):
huge numbers of A380 (these airlines counting for about 80% of the current 165 orders for this aircraft model)

173  Wink
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...380orderssept2007.jpg?t=1190734754

[Edited 2007-09-25 17:40:07]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mutu
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 12:48 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 90):
Because BA wants to replace their oldest 747-400s and can get 747-8Is years before they can get A380-800s. Also, the 748I is a more measured increase in capacity then the A388 and since we're talking "near term" here, BA likely doesn't want to make an immediate large capacity jump in those replacements. The 748I can replace the oldest 744s on the highest-density routes now, and the remaining 744s can be shuffled around.

And there it is at last! WHilst we all like to discuss/dream/fantasise/hope that BA will go for A or B or both, and demonstrate our knowledge to support our claims, the truth is we do not know the airlines plans for its flying program for the next 20 years. Even BA will have a number of scenarios as there is considerable uncertainty at this time. Perhaps ironically the timing of this INITIAL order comes at a most problematic time for the industry.

At a simple level many have argued that as the largest operator of 744, BA will be compelled to buy at least some 748i /773 together with A380. But that depends on whether BA believe they will increase capacity modestly, significantly or not at all. It also depends on whether there are sufficient markets that they operate which would support increased frequency. Or enough viable new routes to expand into.

In order to simulate the deliberations of the Directors of BA we should surely consider the following:

1. the BA route network is largely highly competitive. Its historic strength has been LHR ironically, which was a natural connection hub for flights ex USA to middle east, Africa, India etc. Not that long ago traffic had to touch down somewhere on route and so flying BA and connecting through LHR was the obvious choice for, for example, DXB/JFK, or BOM/ORD. But aircraft advances mean these are now capable non stop and the number of such non stops is increasing taking away transfer connecting traffic from BA. How much more market is at risk from this technical advance?

2. the LCC model is starting to enter the long haul market (Oasis, AIrAsia Express...). and London seems to be on everyones destinations list. What impact does this have on Y volumes in 10 years time.....How does the airline respond? Smaller planes with more premium seats? Same size planes with more premium seats? Reduced frequencies and therefore reduced Y and F/J capacity?

3. Fuel. Just what does happen when oil hits $100 (next year?). And what will oil cost in 10 years and 20 years time? Is this a return to the golden age of high fares and high profits on a smaller flying program? Or does it just kill the industry. What is the replacement and when?

4. Environmental politics. Really like point 3 above. How far will politicians go, how far will they have gone in 10 and 20 years time. What should the replacement cycle be for new fleet going forward to mitigate this. Will demand collapse?

5. Global infrastructure. It isnt just LHR that is bursting at the seams. Its not just airlines that need to spend billions of dollars over the next 10 years to accomodate (currently forecast) demand growth. Airport terminals, runways, ATC all need to be significantly invested in to keep the industry going. What phytsical restrictions on profitable growth will there be? eg BA has a large presence at JFK, rumoured to be expanding with US/EU flights. Yet JFK is at risk of being slot rationed. SO how far could BA expand profits out of JFK?

The decision is most certainly NOT being taken on the basis that A is quicker than B or B is prettier to look at than A or A is larger than B or cheaper CASM or whatever in isolation of business planning propositions. It is not even about which is the better plane. It is about which plane best fits the business plan.

And on that basis if the benefits support it, ultimately when it comes to the real (big follow up) order, you could see A and B flying side by side, even 787 and 350, 773 and 380 and 748. SO we can all be right!!

When we have built the business plan with sufficient flexibility accomodating these key scenarios we will be closer to the answer when it comes!
 
addrenaline
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:00 am

Quoting T773ER (Reply 104):

Well if you you believe that you will have a surprise in store !

Add
 
caminito
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:00 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 105):
Even worse Boeing, Rolls & Airbus Too ..

You seem to have missed totally my point  Big grin

I am not denying that the overall markets will continue to grow (except during economic downturns, which certainly can happen), but saying IMO why the BA pax within what I called the "A380 apt market" will not do so or even decrease.

And this is the only relevant issue from the BA point of view, you surly will agree at least with that!  Wink
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:18 am

Quoting Mutu (Reply 106):
Fuel. Just what does happen when oil hits $100 (next year?). And what will oil cost in 10 years and 20 years time? Is this a return to the golden age of high fares and high profits on a smaller flying program?

Yes...there is actually a bit of a silver lining for those who get to keep their jobs. As fuel becomes the biggest cost factor, labor and infrastructure become lesser concerns. But we're wandering off topic....let's do this some other time.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
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Stitch
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:18 am

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 95):
If the A350 continues to garner orders, and they wait as long as you suggest, they wont receive their A350s until 2020. The time for BA to order A350s is now; right now. They already completely missed the boat on the 787, and wont take delivery of 787s in any significant quantity until 2014, years after most of their competitors will have fleets of them.

Airbus is claiming a 13 unit per month production rate for the A350. They should still have delivery slots available in 2014 for the A350-900 and 2015 for the A350-800 and A350-1000.

So whether they order the 787 or the A350, they're looking at 2014.

If BA takes the 787 first, nothing is stopping them from securing A350 production slots now for the months between 2014 and 2016 to give them time to decide how the plane fits into their longer term plans. And those slots could become valuable capital to BA.
 
AF022
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:54 am

How much commonality is there between the B787 and the B748?
 
caminito
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 3:30 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 110):
Airbus is claiming a 13 unit per month production rate for the A350. They should still have delivery slots available in 2014 for the A350-900 and 2015 for the A350-800 and A350-1000.
So whether they order the 787 or the A350, they're looking at 2014.

I thing you have forgotten that Leahy has stated that they want to achieve 13/month after producing if I remember well 60 frames in the first 2 years of deliveries, which still seems unrealistic, in any case far beyond of what Boeing is trying to do.

Even believing this and the delivery dates would be
No.
001: Mid 2013
061: Mid 2015 , first -10, 2016
216: Mid 2016
373: Mid 2017
Airbus claims they have 228 firm orders and at least 100 commitments
Even if we assume that some of above existing orders/commitments are for delivery after 2016/17, the earliest delivery for a new order could not be before End 2016/Start 2017 (not 2014!) and again, 13/month AVERAGE (!) in the 3rd year seems really unbelievable.
 
vv701
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 3:49 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 89):
I like the humor of Mr.Walsh,

He also confirmed that all the aircraft that BA will order will have engines!

Now for all you people who are projecting industry growth figures out into the future here are two facts:

The 1996-97 BA Annual Report said that BA carried 38.2 million passengers. And the BA 2006-07 Annual Report said they carried 33.1 million passengers. Yes. This is not comparing like with like as many things have changed over those ten years.

On the other hand BA has consistently been one of the world's most profitable airlines over the same period. The only thing we can be sure about is that BA will not buy the most environmentally friendly aircraft as Willie Walsh has confirmed they will all have engines. And we can be certain that the aircraft BA buys will be manufactured by Airbus and/or Boeing. While we cannot be sure about anything else I believe that they will buy those aircraft that they believe will make most money for their shareholders. No, that does not necessarily mean they will buy the most fuel efficient aircraft. After all the capital cost is a major cost. And you will not make much money flying the world's most fuel efficient airliner if it is always less than half full.
 
sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 3:49 am

Quoting AF022 (Reply 111):
How much commonality is there between the B787 and the B748?

GEnx engine commonality, if you get GEnx on your 787s, although 748 has smaller fan etc. 748 should rather be more flight deck similar to existing 747s, i think, but there may be some upgrades to 748 that are similar to 787 flight deck.
 
addrenaline
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 4:45 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 113):

The two prime factors in this order are : Growth & Environment

Like I said the environment issues are key, so please don't under estimate the importance BA are placing on this.

It will be a deciding factor !


Add
 
Scorpio
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 4:48 am

Quoting Caminito (Reply 112):
if I remember well 60 frames in the first 2 years of deliveries, which still seems unrealistic, in any case far beyond of what Boeing is trying to do.

Um, from what I gather, Boeing is actually going to try to deliver far more than 60 frames in the first two years of delivery, so I don't see what is so unrealistic about it...
 
SJCRRPAX
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:01 am

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 115):
Quoting VV701 (Reply 113):
The two prime factors in this order are : Growth & Environment
Like I said the environment issues are key, so please don't under estimate the importance BA are placing on this.
It will be a deciding factor !
Add

So they won't be buying a B727 this time? Seriously, aren't Boeing and Airbus products about equal in terms of environmental impact? If they are voting the environment and Boeing is to be believed than I guess the order would go to Boeing, as I found this quote on Boeings Website:

747-8 Intercontinental is more than 10 percent lighter per seat than the A380, and consumes 10 percent less fuel per passenger.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747family/747-8_background.html
 
mutu
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:05 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 109):
Yes...there is actually a bit of a silver lining for those who get to keep their jobs. As fuel becomes the biggest cost factor, labor and infrastructure become lesser concerns. But we're wandering off topic....let's do this some other time.

I think you should READ other peoples posts carefuly before jumping down their throats. The point is entirely relevent to the thread. But of course I dont possess god like powers like you so I will dutifully leave this debate to you. Two fingers at you.
 
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Stitch
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:06 am

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 117):
747-8 Intercontinental is more than 10 percent lighter per seat than the A380, and consumes 10 percent less fuel per passenger.

Depends on the config. LH believes their A388s will burn about 10% less fuel per km per passenger then their 748s.

However, that figure also cannot be taken as "gospel truth" because LH is likely not flying an A388 and 748 on the exact same route with the A388's payload de-rated to match the 748I's when they calculated that figure.
 
Scorpio
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:10 am

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 115):
Like I said the environment issues are key, so please don't under estimate the importance BA are placing on this.

It will be a deciding factor !

Since new products from both manufacturers are probably very close in that department, I don't suspect 'environmental issues' will swing the decision either way. Sure, BA will brag about how much more environmentally friendly their new planes are, but they'll be able to do that whatever they order.

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 117):
747-8 Intercontinental is more than 10 percent lighter per seat than the A380, and consumes 10 percent less fuel per passenger.

That's spin for you. The only airline to have so far ordered both the 747-8 and the A380 (Lufthansa) estimantes fuel burn per passenger to be slightly higher on the 747-8 than on the A380.

[Edited 2007-09-25 22:11:56]
 
lrdc9
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:11 am

I would say B747-8i. They need the high pax capacity. I think that the 787 would be to small for BA. Another order for the 748i might help overall orders as well.
Just say NO to scabs.
 
Scorpio
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:13 am

Quoting Lrdc9 (Reply 121):
I would say B747-8i. They need the high pax capacity.

Then why not the A380?

Quoting Lrdc9 (Reply 121):
I think that the 787 would be to small for BA.

787 too small to replace a 767?
 
rtfm
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:14 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 92):
As we know the market is currently growing at 5% per year

Sorry but arguments based on 'the market's growing 5% per year therefore BA must buy A380s' is too simplistic. The key questions are 'what markets are growing', 'are BA in a position to exploit that growth' and 'do they want to?' If you look at one of your own source documents (Airbus') the two key growth markets they quote are:

The Indian domestic market - neither opportunity or interest for BA there
Chinese tourism - only limited opportunity or interest.

It also goes on to talk about the growth in leisure travel.

BA's focus has been on higher yielding business travel; it is not interested in growth for growth's sake or filling up planes with lower yielding economy class passengers (hence the conversion of the B744 lo J configs to mid J configs) and (even despite open skies) there are still limitations on which geographical markets BA is able to exploit.

I'm not saying that there might be interest from BA in the A380 (WW has stated there might be for a small fleet of about a dozen) but BA has had its fingers burned before with huge capacity growth in the 90s and I think is unlikely to want to repeat that mistake.
 
boeing767-300
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:16 am

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 102):
With this in mind the A380 is certainly prime target and if the A350 is greener than the B787 believe me Boeing will loose out..

The environment effect is Big with BA and Willie...

Yeah...Ok thats why SRB went with Boeing 787 when one would have expected A350.

Didn't SRB go GE on the 787?
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:25 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 113):
The 1996-97 BA Annual Report said that BA carried 38.2 million passengers. And the BA 2006-07 Annual Report said they carried 33.1 million passengers. Yes. This is not comparing like with like as many things have changed over those ten years.

On the other hand BA has consistently been one of the world's most profitable airlines over the same period.

Excellent post. It would seem that increasing capacity has more potential to be a liability to BA than it might be an asset. Buying smaller aircraft is the more conservative path. Is BA's historic tendency to be ambitious or conservative? The answer to that question helps us polish the crystal ball.

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 115):
Like I said the environment issues are key, so please don't under estimate the importance BA are placing on this.

It will be a deciding factor !

But there is no "index of greenness" on which to decide. I don't see how BA would make any distinction between the Airbus and Boeing offerings in this regard.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:31 am

Quoting Mutu (Reply 118):
I think you should READ other peoples posts carefuly before jumping down their throats. The point is entirely relevent to the thread. But of course I dont possess god like powers like you so I will dutifully leave this debate to you. Two fingers at you.

Wow. I responded positively to your post, and you consider that jumping down your throat? My comment about "wandering off topic" was referring to my own post, not wanting to derail this thread...

Consider switching to decaf, Mutu. sarcastic 
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
jtdieffen
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:37 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 125):
But there is no "index of greenness" on which to decide. I don't see how BA would make any distinction between the Airbus and Boeing offerings in this regard.

Exactly. A 3/4 full A380 will not be as "green" as a fully loaded 747 (most likely), even if it is technical more efficient. There are many real world factors that will make an aircraft less green than it appears on paper. So it's hard to boil down to absolutes in terms of environmental impact.
Regards! JDief
 
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keesje
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:39 am

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 117):
747-8 Intercontinental is more than 10 percent lighter per seat than the A380, and consumes 10 percent less fuel per passenger.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747....html

Boeing has been doing this per seat magic for yrs. It says the 747-8i carries typically 467 passengers in 3 class. Now BA 747-400´s currently carry 291 passengers in 4 class configuration. You do the math.

I remember doing some research on 747-8 seatcounts. The outcomes were no good, it would be deleted it immediately these days  Wink https://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/2610589
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
caminito
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:39 am

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 116):
Quoting Caminito (Reply 112):
if I remember well 60 frames in the first 2 years of deliveries, which still seems unrealistic, in any case far beyond of what Boeing is trying to do.

Um, from what I gather, Boeing is actually going to try to deliver far more than 60 frames in the first two years of delivery, so I don't see what is so unrealistic about it...

Scorpio

I am somewhat concerned that you quoted incompletely and out of context my statement and argued consequently:

I wrote:

Quote:
"Leahy has stated that they want to achieve 13/month after producing if I remember well 60 frames in the first 2 years of deliveries, which still seems unrealistic, in any case far beyond of what Boeing is trying to do

and if it was still not clear that as "unrealistic" I did refer to the 13/month and not to the 60 in 2 years, I had added on the end of the post:

Quoting Caminito (Reply 112):
again, 13/month AVERAGE (!) in the 3rd year seems really unbelievable.

And yes, the production planned by Boeing in the firsts 2 years is about 100 (if I remember well), meaning 1.67 frames per month more thanAirbus, but this does neither seem unrealistic

I would appreciate your comments.
 
Scorpio
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:49 am

Quoting Caminito (Reply 129):
I would appreciate your comments.

Still doesn't change much about the whole thing. Isn't Boeing considering going to 14, or even 16, 787s per month? Still more than Airbus' 13, so again, I fail to see what is so unrealistic...
 
ikramerica
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:53 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 128):
Boeing has been doing this per seat magic for yrs. It says the 747-8i carries typically 467 passengers in 3 class. Now BA 747-400´s currently carry 291 passengers in 4 class configuration. You do the math.

Enough man. Enough. There are carriers with high 300s pax in 744s in three class, claimed to hold 417. And there are carriers with plans for 3 class A380s in the 460-480 range, despite claiming to hold 555. Here's some "math" for you.

Even SQ uses the 744 more efficiently than the A380 in terms of seats, with 375 out of 417 in the 744, but only 471 out of 555 on the A380, despite having 399 Y seats! This 555 seat figure is all obviously "magic" on Airbus's part...  Yeah sure

Sure, SQ uses bigger J seats on the A380, but why should we pay attention? Your way of doing math is to totally ignore differences in product and premium count, so anyone can play that game, right?

And EK even puts 374 in 3 class on some 773s, MORE than Boeing claims. So by your logic, Boeing's been underselling the 773...  Yeah sure

It's all about the numbers you use and the type of seats and the amount of premium product, you know that, you continue to post this GARBAGE (choosing a low density 4-class 744 as "proof" of magic) and for some unknown reasons, the moderators don't get on your case.

But every time you do it, people have less and less respect for your other points, because they have to wonder where you are getting your information and how skewed is your thought process.

Give it up. It doesn't help your case.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
MSYtristar
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:54 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 128):
It says the 747-8i carries typically 467 passengers in 3 class

I can see that. That's taking into consideration a large Y cabin. It's up to the airlines to decide how they want to lay out their aircraft. If you put 100 business seats on the main deck, of course the seating arrangements will differ. The BA 291-seat 744 is not a typical 744 arrangement....about 40-60 seats lower, actually.
 
Gemuser
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RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 7:34 am

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 72):
Taxiways and runways have to be widened. Oversized baggage carousels have to be in place, while A380-ready gates with dual airbridges have to be built.

I give up! A second time! Read the manual, or as we say in IT - RTFM!

OK Panam_DC10?  sarcastic 

Gemuser
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caminito
Posts: 115
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:04 am

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 7:48 am

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 130):
Still doesn't change much about the whole thing. Isn't Boeing considering going to 14, or even 16, 787s per month? Still more than Airbus' 13, so again, I fail to see what is so unrealistic...

Again, referring to the last sentence of my post 112. 13, 16 or 20 per month are not unrealistic, what is clearly so is to pretend an AVERAGE of 13 in the 3rd year!

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 132):
I can see that. That's taking into consideration a large Y cabin. It's up to the airlines to decide how they want to lay out their aircraft. If you put 100 business seats on the main deck, of course the seating arrangements will differ. The BA 291-seat 744 is not a typical 744 arrangement....about 40-60 seats lower, actually.

As I can see, the posters in the past had more or less agreed that an equivalent configured B748i for 407 pax correspond to a 525 pax A380, or a 385 pax B748i to a 494 pax A380.. WHY WE DO NOT FREEZE this relation 77% for discussion sake?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 128):
Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 117):
747-8 Intercontinental is more than 10 percent lighter per seat than the A380, and consumes 10 percent less fuel per passenger.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747....html

Boeing has been doing this per seat magic for yrs

There will be no more seat magic if we freeze the pax relation as proposed above.
Technical oriented persons at the Forum discuss a lot regarding engine, volumetric, structural and whatsoever efficiencies, but these, from airline perspective, are irrelevant. The main issues are the CASM and the fuel burn at the average mission corresponding to this airline

And, to be competitive, the larger aircraft must have a significantly lower CASM and fuel burn per seat, as the smaller plane will sport better figures per pax at low load factors and more flexibility to adapt the flights to the available pax variation during the year, so again improving the load factor.

Which is the case comparing the A380 with the B748i and also with the B787 (and A350 in the future)?
 
addrenaline
Posts: 10
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2007 11:01 am

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 8:37 am

My money's on Airbus....
The A380 is both quiet and gives BA the flexibility to replace two services with one should they want to,
a single flight is more environmently friendly than two, one take off is better than two, noise and air polution wise. On the routes that the A380 would work are always full so I cannot see half empty aircraft being an issue, they could always downsize to a B777 should that happen.
Plus slots out of LHR are reduced giving two fold growth opportunities.
Passenger, particularly in the premium cabins will have new improved standards of comfort..

B787 maybe a reasonable B767 replacement for some, but is rather small for BA's growth plans so I think the A359 / A350-10 will be a better fit for the next 10 - 25yrs

Personally, I don't think the B747-8I will be chosen..

My Guess

20 - 25 x A380-800
25 x A350-9
25 x A350-10



Add
 
SJCRRPAX
Posts: 961
Joined: Wed Dec 21, 2005 2:29 am

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:10 am

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 135):
My money's on Airbus....
The A380 is both quiet and gives BA the flexibility to replace two services with one should they want to,
a single flight is more environmently friendly than two, one take off is better than two, noise and air polution wise. On the routes that the A380 would work are always full so I cannot see half empty aircraft being an issue, they could always downsize to a B777 should that happen.
Plus slots out of LHR are reduced giving two fold growth opportunities.
Passenger, particularly in the premium cabins will have new improved standards of comfort..

B787 maybe a reasonable B767 replacement for some, but is rather small for BA's growth plans so I think the A359 / A350-10 will be a better fit for the next 10 - 25yrs

Personally, I don't think the B747-8I will be chosen..

You certainly could be correct about BA buying the A380, and it would be a great choice. But if they care for the environment I would think they would split the order so they would more likely be able to have the right size plane. The environmental argument in favor of the A380 over the B748 is pretty weak though, both planes will be quieter and less polluting than the older planes they replace.

AS far as future growth of BA, someone here just posted that BA carried 38.2 million passengers in 1996 and than carried 33.1 million passengers 10 years later. Doesn't sound like too much growth. I suspect this trend could continue as the last flight I took from SFO-LHR had a lot of people on it that had a final destination of India. I think Air India and maybe Kingfisher will be starting flights direct to India from SFO. If BA goes with the A380, I certainly hope they increase the space for the "Y" passengers, but I get the unique feeling that BA is going after premium passengers and is not interested in people like me that are waiting for Aer Lingus to Merge with Ryan Air so I can travel to Europe for 2 Euro's. I am not going to make a prediction on which way it will go but I will rule out environmental concerns having any effect on the choice. This choice will be based purely on profit (which plane will earn BA more money) and if they decide its a tie, than the A380 should win because its the home-team plane and something like 1000 people in the UK are involved in producing the wings for the A380. I'll get flamed for that last comment but I firmly believe that the tie breaker will be and should be the plane that helps the UK economy the most, and that is the A380.
 
SA7700
Posts: 2930
Joined: Thu Dec 18, 2003 9:38 pm

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 3:48 pm

My sincere apologies for being off-topic

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 133):
I give up! A second time! Read the manual, or as we say in IT - RTFM!

You can not dispute the fact that money is being spent in order for airports to receive the A380 on a regular, commercial basis. That is basically the only point I wanted to make. AUD100 million has been spent at SYD to widen runways and taxiways, strengthen the General Holmes Drive tunnel and upgrade facilities in the international terminal.

Southern Cross Airports Corporation Holdings Limited: Annual Report 2005

I have never been anything than respectful to you in the past – if you don’t believe me, please look up your IM history. Your thinly failed personal attack, with profane language, therefore thus does not amuse me, in whichever way you try to disguise it. There is no need for it and I truly expected more from you.

Keep well Gemuser


SA7700

[Edited 2007-09-26 09:08:36]
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
theginge
Posts: 530
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2006 1:53 am

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:17 pm

Some routes like JFK are not full all the time, so an A380 on this would be a waste of money. I can't see BA reducing JFK frequencys just because of the A380, thats one of the main selling points of the route, where the businessman has the flexibility of turning up at the airport early or late and getting on a flight as there is one every hour or so.

It is a very fine balancing act between having an A380 when the flight is full a lot of the time but then running it half full when not. Maybe BA will decide that over the course of the year it is better to have a smaller aircraft on the route and being full more of the time.

On the Australian routes that are always very full I would think that an A380 on it would only really increase the amount of Y seats available which would not be very good as the market is saturdated with the middle / far east carriers operating. For BA that wants to concentrate primarily on the premium traffic having a smaller plane would be better as they wouldn't have to drop fares in Y too much just to fill the plane.

No one apart from the CEO, chairman and a few others really know what BA will chose so hopefully the announcement comes soon.
 
anstar
Posts: 3151
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 3:49 am

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:17 pm

787 is a better 767 replacement then the A350..[/quote]

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 122):
Quoting Lrdc9 (Reply 121):
I think that the 787 would be to small for BA.

787 too small to replace a 767?

Do they need a direct 767 replacement though? The rumours suggest that LGW will get 767's. Now as those routes are already 777's and the 777's are moving to LHR because they need capacity I would say the A350 is in with just as good a chance
 
scouseflyer
Posts: 2192
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:02 pm

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:24 pm

Quoting Theginge (Reply 138):
No one apart from the CEO, chairman and a few others really know what BA will chose so hopefully the announcement comes soon.

I hope so too, this has gone on for such a long time, I wonder if A net will burst if the announcement is that the orders is to be further delayed.....
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15057
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:25 pm

Quoting Addrenaline (Reply 135):
The A380 is both quiet and gives BA the flexibility to replace two services with one should they want to,

It can only replace two 767s, otherwise it would be a CUT in capacity. But they could replace 3 flights with 2 A380s. Like 2 744s and a 772 with 2 A380s. But will there be enough premium seats?

My take on the A380 and BA is that they will only use it on routes where they would replace a 744 one for one and increase capacity. It would not be used to decrease frequency in any way. Thus it has a limited place in the fleet, as since they have 50 744s, they will not want to replace all 50.

This is why Walsh has said he sees a place for 15 A380s. He was pretty specific about that. So don't expect 20-25, at least not in this decade...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:26 pm

one thought. If BA go 748 and 787 as they well might - where does that leave Rolls. It would make no sense to choose 2 types of identical engine when you could have one.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13584
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:48 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 131):
choosing a low density 4-class 744 as "proof" of magic



Quoting T773ER (Thread starter):
New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

We are talking BA 747 configuration here.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 134):
WHY WE DO NOT FREEZE this relation 77% for discussion sake?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 128):
Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 117):
747-8 Intercontinental is more than 10 percent lighter per seat than the A380, and consumes 10 percent less fuel per passenger.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747....html

Boeing has been doing this per seat magic for yrs

There will be no more seat magic if we freeze the pax relation as proposed above.

Caminito you are absolutely right. I can see you are new on a.net but I tried this for many years. However if one doesn't like the outcomes..

Our new a.net spreadsheetwonderboy WingedMigrator last week-end created a graph taking into account available space, realistic load and range, which is a far better approach to compare payload range of various aircraft types:

https://www.airliners.net/uf/536902901/1190697341E25Fyn.jpg
Range at 100 kg of payload per m2 of cabin area, at brochure OEW

As WingedMigrator himself states, this approach has its flaws too. Fuel consumption isn't included.. he talks about a third axis..

Quoting SJCRRPAX (Reply 136):
AS far as future growth of BA, someone here just posted that BA carried 38.2 million passengers in 1996 and than carried 33.1 million passengers 10 years later.

In that period they introduced more 40 777's... Maybe it is because they outsourced many short haul / feeder operations to francises? They have a relatively small NB fleet..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
WINGS
Posts: 2315
Joined: Tue May 31, 2005 1:36 am

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:35 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 128):

I remember doing some research on 747-8 seatcounts. The outcomes were no good, it would be deleted it immediately these days Wink https://www.airliners.net/discussions...10589

I just went back and read through that thread. The most interesting things that I noticed was the number of members that have abandoned Airliners.net.  Sad

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5044
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:25 pm

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 137):
You can not dispute the fact that money is being spent in order for airports to receive the A380 on a regular, commercial basis

Never did! Disputed that the money HAD to spent to have the A380 operate at an airport. That is simply NOT true.

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 137):
AUD100 million has been spent at SYD to widen runways and taxiways, strengthen the General Holmes Drive tunnel and upgrade facilities in the international terminal.Southern Cross Airports Corporation Holdings Limited: Annual Report 2005

Where in your ref does it say that? The only ref I could find is on P16 where the statement:
"has already let several key construction projects to prepare the airport for A380 operations. Work has started on the construction of the first of six aerobridge upgrades at T1 to provide new three door aerobridges for the aircraft -- including direct aerobridge access to the upper deck."

No mention of "widening the runways", which has not happened, no mention of taxiways, which may have happened to fix known trouble spots, no "strengthen the General Holmes Drive tunnel", in fact this work was to widen the road thru the tunnel, which required some strengthening work as a result.

The Terminal 1 works are not required. SCAL decided to make a commerical investment to improve pax flow. They could have gotten by without the double level aero bridges and if there's only six of them, many A380s are going to have to use standard gates or remote stands as QF along will have 20 A380s based there.

The only work at SYD AFAIK that could be said to be required solely to accommodate the A380 is the sealing of the runway edges to reduce the likely hood of FOD damage.

I repeat none of this work is legally REQUIRED for the A380 to operate into an airport, convenient maybe, required not!

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 137):
Your thinly failed personal attack, with profane language,

It was not a personal attack on anybody, if you took it as such, well ... you were not the only one my comment was aimed at.
As for "profane" language, I do not recognise anything as "profane", a concept I find to have no connection with reality.

Gemuser
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
SA7700
Posts: 2930
Joined: Thu Dec 18, 2003 9:38 pm

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 11:32 pm

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 145):
I repeat none of this work is legally REQUIRED for the A380 to operate into an airport, convenient maybe, required not!

The major airfield works included widening of pavement shoulders to runways and taxiways, airfield services protection, and re-alignment of Taxiway A.

A significant issue was the strengthening of the General Holmes Drive Tunnel, under the main runway, to cope with the additional weight of the A380. This involved inserting 246 precast concrete planks into the runway and taxiway. The concrete planks were between 6 – 12 metres long and up to 14 tonnes in weight.


http://www.syd.com.au/SACL/Corporate...edia+Centre/Multimedia/default.htm

Would Sydney Airport have at least gone ahead with the strenghtening of the tunnel, if not for the A380? Probably not. The last time I checked strenghtening did not = convenience. It was to ensure safety.

I am done on this thread, no worries.


SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
caminito
Posts: 115
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:04 am

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Wed Sep 26, 2007 11:39 pm

[quote=Keesje,reply=143]As WingedMigrator himself states, this approach has its flaws too. Fuel consumption isn't included.. he talks about a third axis[/quote

As you mention WingedMigrator, browsing through his posts shows he has indeed indicated some roughly estimated figures for the fuel consumption, for both max. payload as well as SIMILAR SEAT DENSITY!
As you can see below, the comparative performance shows an advantage for the B748i by payload and a smaller advantage for the A380 per seat.
This seems to favor the B748i, as the smaller aircraft would allow a better adjustment of the low season flight frequency and so achieve a better load factor

"'''''Here are some numbers for max payload @ 5500 nm (slice and dice into pax and cargo as you please).

744 @max payload: 24.8 L/tonne/100km
A388 @max payload: 22.5 L/tonne/100km
748I @max payload: 20.4 L/tonne/100km
""""

and

""""All at 6000 nm and 0.95 seats/m2 (similar to the A388 spec)

A388 @525 pax: 3.3 L/pax/100km
748I @405 pax: 3.4 L/pax/100km
744 @355 pax: 4.2 L/pax/100km """"
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 14647
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 12:05 am

Quoting Caminito (Reply 147):
This seems to favor the B748i, as the smaller aircraft would allow a better adjustment of the low season flight frequency and so achieve a better load factor

Maybe of you look at last year, in that case the 773ER would be a better choice. But BA are buying aircraft to last the next 15-20 years of growth. Airline passenger growth from what I have seen in airline reports, engine manufacture reports, and aircraft manufacture reports indicate a doubling in demand over that period.

The slots (landing, terminal gates, enroute) slots at LHR will not double over that period.

If you had a pregnant wife with twins, would you buy a two bedroom flat or a 3 bedroom house ? which would be better 15 years down the track ? Do you look at today or next year or 10-15 years to the future ?
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
SJCRRPAX
Posts: 961
Joined: Wed Dec 21, 2005 2:29 am

RE: New Boeing 747 And 787 For British Airways?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 12:44 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 148):
If you had a pregnant wife with twins, would you buy a two bedroom flat or a 3 bedroom house ? which would be better 15 years down the track ? Do you look at today or next year or 10-15 years to the future ?

The growth in Air Travel will be mostly China and India. All of the population projections I have seen have shown Europe's population decreasing. Since BA is a European airline, I'm not sure we can extrapolate that their PAX loads will increase in the next decade. So if you are about to retire and the kids moving out of the house, would you buy a bigger house? These are the population estimates for Europe I got from the always unreliable wikipedia.


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