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ba777-236
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Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:55 pm

I don't know about you guys, but to me, BA NOT ordering the 747-8 was a complete surprise. While the A380 is a very capable a/c, I presumed that BA would continue their tradition of buying 747's.

Now this is not to say that BA can't suddenly order some 748's tomorrow, but I think this was a major blow to the project.

Having said that, does anyone here see the 748 being a sucessful plane? And by that, I mean production numbers reaching 200 to 300 frames. Somehow, I'm having troubling see those numbers, for the passenger version alone.

I'm a big Boeing fan (don't worry, I like Airbus too!) but I simply love the majestic look of the 747, and would hate to see her leave the skies in the not so distant future....
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Gemuser
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:06 pm

Quoting Ba777-236 (Thread starter):
Having said that, does anyone here see the 748 being a sucessful plane? And by that, I mean production numbers reaching 200 to 300 frames. Somehow, I'm having troubling see those numbers, for the passenger version alone.

I tend to agree, but that does not mean the B748 program, as a whole, is in trouble as I can see the B748F reaching these numbers. Boeing MAY be prepared to book a loss on the B748I given that it would be relatively small as most of the cost would be covered by the freighter, only the pax specific bits being extra. So I don't see Boeing cancelling the B748I even if it turns out LH is the only customer, which I still think is unlikely, but who knows?

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ikramerica
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:12 pm

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 1):
So I don't see Boeing cancelling the B748I even if it turns out LH is the only customer, which I still think is unlikely, but who knows?

There's still EK which seems to want to order everything, China which will likely order 748i out of political pressure if no other reason, JL which will order some VLA in the future, just not now (no money), BA, which hasn't ruled it out though it doesn't look good.

Then there's a little airline called UA which everyone seems to forget, with 30 744s. I could see them going A350 + 748, with at least 12 748s. I don't really see them as an A380 carrier due to logistics, but one never knows.
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stealth777
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:14 pm

For UA I think they have it down to Boeing for long-haul and Airbus for short-haul. So I think it would be more 748 and 787 than 380 and 350, if and when they do place an order.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:23 pm

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 1):
And by that, I mean production numbers reaching 200 to 300 frames.

Well, I can imagine 200-300 747-8i frames being ordered if Boeing can convince A380 carriers that it is not a competitor but a complementary addition to the Airbus plane.

I think the more important question is, will the A380 ever reach 300 orders? That's not meant as a snide comment. It's worth thinking about.

Reggaebird
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:40 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
BA, which hasn't ruled it out though it doesn't look good.

They've ordered A380s and they listed the options for replacing their remaining 744s as 787-10s, 773ERs (unlikely IMHO) and A350s.

How is that not ruling it out?  scratchchin 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:44 pm

sorry to quote Everyone, but everyone has something good to say!

Quoting Ba777-236 (Thread starter):
Having said that, does anyone here see the 748 being a sucessful plane? And by that, I mean production numbers reaching 200 to 300 frames. Somehow, I'm having troubling see those numbers, for the passenger version alone.



Quoting Gemuser (Reply 1):
I tend to agree, but that does not mean the B748 program, as a whole, is in trouble as I can see the B748F reaching these numbers. Boeing MAY be prepared to book a loss on the B748I given that it would be relatively small as most of the cost would be covered by the freighter, only the pax specific bits being extra. So I don't see Boeing cancelling the B748I even if it turns out LH is the only customer, which I still think is unlikely, but who knows?

Whether or not the pax version of the 748 is a flop or not, Boeing is producing a quality freighter if nothing else. this will be the most capable freighter around when it is released, and there is a lot to be said about that alone. the 747 has been with us for almost 40 years now, and i don't see her exit ending production of a true 747 frame for atleast 10 years.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
Then there's a little airline called UA which everyone seems to forget, with 30 744s. I could see them going A350 + 748, with at least 12 748s. I don't really see them as an A380 carrier due to logistics, but one never knows.

i have been expecting UA to order the 748 since day one. the problem right now for UA is they are broke. i can't site the source or exactly when it was, but within the past year or so, i remember hearing UA said it didn't plan on buying any new aircraft for ATLEAST 5 years. while the 748 program gains some headway and UA makes some money, i think we could see an order, possibly even a large enough order to make them the largest 748 operator.....

Quoting Stealth777 (Reply 3):
For UA I think they have it down to Boeing for long-haul and Airbus for short-haul. So I think it would be more 748 and 787 than 380 and 350, if and when they do place an order.

totally agree, but i have a strange feeling we'll see more 777's ordered before we see the first 787 order...

Quoting Reggaebird (Reply 4):
Well, I can imagine 200-300 747-8i frames being ordered if Boeing can convince A380 carriers that it is not a competitor but a complementary addition to the Airbus plane.

I think the more important question is, will the A380 ever reach 300 orders? That's not meant as a snide comment. It's worth thinking about.

it won't be that hard for Boeing to sell that if a majority of 380's on spacific routes are leaving and returning without a full load. the 748 is great because while still Very large, it has fewer seats than the 380 And more belly room for cargo...and cargo really is a stealthy gold mine for airlines. i think we'll see a lot of 380 operators ordering the 748 within 5-10 years of entry into service..... and i don't see the 380 exceeding 250 orders. i'm not trying to start a A vs B discussion, but i really don't see the 380 gaining that much more steam as time goes on....but i'm no psycic
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:48 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
JL which will order some VLA in the future, just not now

That is one long time. And I bet good money that when they see that the 748 isn't selling that well and A380 is they just might move to A380.  Wink
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ikramerica
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:50 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 5):
They've ordered A380s and they listed the options for replacing their remaining 744s as 787-10s, 773ERs (unlikely IMHO) and A350s.

How is that not ruling it out?

Because it was not MENTIONED AT ALL. Not in a positive way, or a negative way. Sin of omission? Who knows. But Boeing has said BA is interested, so until BA says they are NOT interested, they haven't ruled it out. Ruling something out is pretty specific and final. BA hasn't done that.

But, as I said, the comments don't sound encouraging either. They are looking to potentially downsize their remaining 744s to 77W size, which is what many here thought they would do. But that doesn't preclude 748s as well, with 3 sized aircraft covering what used to have to be done by one.

The door looked to be closed for the 748 at LH as well, and then they turned around and ordered 20...  Wink
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swallow
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:50 pm

Quoting Ba777-236 (Thread starter):
Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Yes, for the freighter. The jury is still out for the pax version
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theginge
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:52 pm

I think it depends how the A380 performs in service. If some Airlines find it is a bit too big for their needs then I think we will see fresh 748 orders to fill the gap.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:07 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 8):
Because it was not MENTIONED AT ALL.

And I thought I was an optimist!  rotfl 

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 8):
But Boeing has said BA is interested

Well they would, wouldn't they. wink 
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kaitak744
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:10 pm

The A380s will obviously not be replacing BA's 747-400s 1-1. I see their future fleet to be 787-8, 787-9, 787-10, Y3, A380.
(12 A380s to replace oldest 747s. Remaining 747s are young enough to wait for Y3). No 748 or A350-1000.

The 747-8 will be built, even if the only order is Lufthansa. The 747-400ER was built with only 6 orders...
And Lufthansa would not cancel. They probably got very good financing, given that they were the launch customer.
 
ncelhr
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:14 pm

Quoting Reggaebird (Reply 4):
I think the more important question is, will the A380 ever reach 300 orders? That's not meant as a snide comment. It's worth thinking about.

Over the life of the programme, yes. That is more than 15 years down the line, when carriers will be replacing their A388 with A389. (or A388E - enhanced - just making this up, but Airbus will probably bring in some improvements at that time)

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 8):
Because it was not MENTIONED AT ALL. Not in a positive way, or a negative way. Sin of omission? Who knows. But Boeing has said BA is interested, so until BA says they are NOT interested, they haven't ruled it out. Ruling something out is pretty specific and final. BA hasn't done that.

Aren't press releases about what they're likely to buy, and not about what they're not likely to buy? Big grin

Following your logic, they'd have to also say they're not interested in the SSJ100, nor the ARJ21 for their short haul fleet.
They have specifically mentioned what aircraft they are considering for replacing the B744. Not being listed seems like a rejection. Now perhaps the people writing the press release made a mistake and we'll see an updated note...
But it seems to be nice enough for BA not to say on their press release: we are not considering the B748 so that news headlines concentrate more on the purchases than the fact that B748 is missing the party. Boeing doesn't need that kind of advertising.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:22 pm

Quoting Ba777-236 (Thread starter):
I don't know about you guys, but to me, BA NOT ordering the 747-8 was a complete surprise.

Well, it was a surprise for me, too but nothing is final yet. I think BA wants someone else to order the type. So far, only LH ordered passenger version.
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kaitak744
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:27 pm

Potential 747-8 customers:

Emirates (a definite. they will order anything)
Jet Airways
Air India
South African
Thai
Cathay Pacific
Air China
Asiana
China Airlines
EVA Air
JAL
ANA (maybe)

That is roughly 150 orders.

United (no way, they will never be able to fill it. Southwest has a better chance of ordering the 748.)
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:32 pm

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 12):
The 747-8 will be built, even if the only order is Lufthansa

I suspect Boeing would honour LH's 748i order even if it were the only one.

The 748 Programme as a whole looks certain to be successful on the 748F alone.

Regards
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:39 pm

BA might still order the B 747-8.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 15):

United (no way, they will never be able to fill it. Southwest has a better chance of ordering the 748.)

Most of UA's B 747-400 flights are FULL!
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:53 pm

Quoting Reggaebird (Reply 4):
I think the more important question is, will the A380 ever reach 300 orders? That's not meant as a snide comment. It's worth thinking about.

I think so it's currently got 165 firm orders and another 21 pending (8 EK, 12 BA and 1 VIP) factoring in the UPS cancellation that's a net of 20 this year and 30 gross I see sales continuing at this level for a while especially if the moves towards taxing older planes more for their Carbon (as is being campaigned for by some in Europe) push some people to replace older 744s.

As for the 748 - even if LH cancel thier order it would be a PR blow but I'm guessing that the programme is creeping towards breakeven with the 50 odd freighters that have already been ordered?
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:57 pm

I was also surprised that BA didn't order it, I was expecting BA to be the second major airline in Europe to order it. After reading all the posts, I figured Boeing not offering the GE power plant on the 747-8 is the reason BA didn't order it. The only other European carrier which could consider it is Virgin Atlantic, a current B744 operator and future A380 operator. I'm surprised no one yet mentioned Virgin Atlantic as a possible 748 customer.
Lufthansa is so far the only airline to order it in pax version, as we all know.
It doesn't look like Air France and KLM are interested in it, even if it is offered with GE power plant, maybe in Freighter version but not as pax version.
No other airline in Europe is even thinking of it (yes I know Cargolux ordered it, I'm talking of passenger 748 aircraft).
Iberia prefers the A346.

Middle East:
Maybe El Al will order a couple of those. El Al always was loyal to Boeing.
Egypt Air: I doubt it, they did not even have 744's and they didn't even look at the A380.
Emirates: likely to order no less than 10 of those in pax version or freighter version, or both.

Africa: the only customer I see ordering the 748 is SAA. SAA has quite a large intercontinental network compared to all other African carriers.

North America:
United: they might order those to replace their 744''s, more likely than the A380. They always go Boeing for long haul aircraft, the only reason they went Airbus once was they needed a medium haul aircraft with hot and high performance capabilities, they chose the A320 over the 737-400 for that reason, in the early 90's the 737NG didn't exist.
Northwest: not likely but not impossible. It depends on which routes the load factors will constantly be high. They showed interest in neither the 748 (not even as a freighter) nor the A380, even though they have a large intercontinental transpacific network. It looks like Northwest wants to downgrade its intercontinental fleet with smaller aircraft, if they need an aircraft any larger than the 787 they ordered they will likely go for the 787-10 scheduled to enter service no earlier than 2010.
Air Canada: I doubt it. I don't even know if they still have 744's. They seem to be more interested in the 777 and 787. They don't need such large capacity aircraft.
No other airline in North America is even thinking of the 748 in pax version.
It is obvious that American, Continental and Delta don't want it even if they want to go towards all Boeing fleets.

Latin America:
I don't think there is a market for that airplane in that part of the world. Latin American carriers seem to look at medium haul aircraft for routes within South America and intercontinental flights to North America, and they seem to look at the 777LR and A340 variants for intercontinental flights to Europe. The Latin American network is dominated by American Airlines and Iberia.

Asia and South Pacific:
Air India: it doesn't look like they are interested in it.
Kingfisher: no. They seem to go all Airbus.
Singapore: no. They have quite many A380's on order and seem to be very happy with it, introducing it soon. They are phasing out 744's in favor of A380's coming up. It looks like there is no future for the 747 at Singapore in pax version, only 744 as freighter.
Cathay Pacific: they might.
Korean Air: they might as well.
Qantas: I don't think so. They also have, like Singapore, a large number of A380's on order, and the 748 isn't offered with RR engines. Maybe Qantas would look at it seriously if it were offered with RR power plant.
Air Tahiti: definitely no.
JAL and ANA: I would't be surprised if they go for 748's in pax version, although I doubt it, there is a market for this aircraft in the Pacific Rim but the Japanese seem to go for 777's for intercontinental routes. They would choose the 748 over the A380 if they need an aircraft any larger than the 773.
Thai, Asiana, Air New Zeland and Malaysian : perhaps but not likely.
The Chinese carriers: perhaps.
Vietnam Airlines: no. They don't fly anything larger than the 772.

Conclusion: I don't think that the 747-8 is really a direct competitor to the A380. Boeing is offering it not just to compete against Airbus' super jumbo, Boeing is offering it as a aircraft to fill the gap between the 773 and the A380 should an airline need that. The 748 isn't selling well, but the cost of the project wasn't as high as the A380 project, because the 748 is simply a new derivative of an existing model, the A380 isn't. So even though Boeing has a tough time selling 748's in pax version the manufacturer wouldn't loose a lot of money on that, if at all. Boeing doesn't believe in the future of jumbos as much as Airbus does. Boeing believes rather in the future of medium capacity twin jets, that's where Boeing will make money in the future.

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rwessel
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 6:00 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 18):
As for the 748 - even if LH cancel thier order it would be a PR blow but I'm guessing that the programme is creeping towards breakeven with the 50 odd freighters that have already been ordered?

The order book is 65x748f and 25x748i through August.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 6:05 pm

I think SA)">UA, SA)">NW, CA, AI, CI, QF, NZ, CX, MH, TG, JL, NH etc will eventually order the B 747-8.

BA, SA, AF, KL, SQ,,,,,,,,,, maybe.

AC: possible but unlikely.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 6:06 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 2):
Then there's a little airline called UA which everyone seems to forget, with 30 744s. I could see them going A350 + 748, with at least 12 748s. I don't really see them as an A380 carrier due to logistics, but one never knows.

Perhaps UA will repalce their 747's with 777-300ers rather than A380 or 748
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 7:47 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 21):
I think SA)">UA, SA)">NW, CA, AI, CI, QF, NZ, CX, MH, TG, JL, NH etc will eventually order the B 747-8.

BA, SA, AF, KL, SQ,,,,,,,,,, maybe.

AC: possible but unlikely.

I'd move QF to possible but unlikely. With 20 A380 already on order, that's 20 out of 30 B744/B744ER replaced. The other 10 are more likely to be replaced by big twins.

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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:15 pm

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 15):

Emirates - Possible, they keep talking, may go A350-1000 and skip B748s unless they want to capacity so soon so badly
Jet Airways - Possible, not in the near future tho, more likely going A388s by the time they need an VLA
Air India - More likely going for a mix of B748s and A388s
South African - More likely going A388s, range and hot/high performance is key
Thai - They don't have any say, they get what the politicians want them to get
Cathay Pacific - Depends if there are others ordering more B748s, will not commit if there's only 1 other airlines who's bought it, more likely getting the 8F
Air China - Will buy anything on offer, it's the Air China museum of every aircraft type
Asiana - Possible but more likely B773ERs
China Airlines - Most likely of all here
EVA Air - Unlikely - their current B744s are combis, more B773ERs on transpacs.
JAL - More likely going ANA's way of B773ERs
ANA - ANA has said nothing bigger than the B773ERs
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MSYtristar
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:45 pm

The 747-8 program is already a success due to the popular freighter version. Orders for the passenger version are just icing on the cake. I see somewhere between 60-80 747-8i's deleivered when all is said and done.

I am still very dissapointed in BA for not ordering the aircraft. It would have been a GOOD match for its fleet. No one can deny that.
 
na
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:48 pm

I also belong tho those who are a bit negatively surprised that BA didn´t order 748Is. But remember that this is only the first stage of its longhaul replacement program. Most 787s ordered will replace the 767s and the first batch of 777s.

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 24):
ANA - ANA has said nothing bigger than the B773ERs

What airlines say today, is yesterdays talk tomorrow. With successful operation of the A380 by the competition ANA will fall behind.

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 24):
JAL - More likely going ANA's way of B773ERs

Both, ANA and JAL, won´t be competitive anymore in a few years already if they don´t order more modern equipment. With A380s, 748Is and 787s flying, the 773 will be aging technology.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:52 pm

Quoting NA (Reply 26):
With successful operation of the A380 by the competition ANA will fall behind.

I don't get that argument...
Surely the service you recieve on an A380 would be the same as, for example - an A330 or B777? So how exactly would they "fall behind"?
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:52 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 25):
I am still very dissapointed in BA for not ordering the aircraft. It would have been a GOOD match for its fleet. No one can deny that.

Apart form those that said the A380 was an even better match. Oh, and BA themselves.
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:06 pm

Quoting Ba777-236 (Thread starter):
BA NOT ordering the 747-8 was a complete surprise

Maybe the 774-8 is not what they need.  Smile

Quoting Ba777-236 (Thread starter):
While the A380 is a very capable a/c, I presumed that BA would continue their tradition of buying 747's.

BA is a major enterprise. They won't order it if it does not fir their Strategy. I hardly believe they spent 300 millions because of tradition.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 15):
Potential 747-8 customers:

Emirates (a definite. they will order anything)

Why list it as potential then?  Wink

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 15):
United (no way, they will never be able to fill it. Southwest has a better chance of ordering the 748.)

Either you forgot this:  Yeah sure or you have a good source.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 15):
JAL
ANA (maybe)

AFAIK they will go the 773 way.
 
na
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:17 pm

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 27):
I don't get that argument...Surely the service you recieve on an A380 would be the same as, for example - an A330 or B777? So how exactly would they "fall behind"?

After all I read and the more so from people I personally know who have flown on the A380 alraedy its more comfortable and has a roomier feel than a 777 or A340.
Also read what I said also: With A380, 748I and 787 flying the 773ER is NOT state-of-art anymore, it´ll be like the 744 now - one generation behind!
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:18 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 28):
Apart form those that said the A380 was an even better match. Oh, and BA themselves.

I really don't care WHO thought the A380 was a better match....let's look at the facts.... BA only ordered 12 A380's. That's not too many. That's enough for what....two flights to NRT, SIN/SYD, and maybe a couple of flights to the U.S? It's not like BA ordered 30 of the planes. They understand that the A380 is a VERY niche aircraft for their needs and is NOT a good 747 replacement on a 1-1 basis. Anyway, the 748 program is likely already profitable due to the strong freighter sales, while sadly, the A380 will probably never acheieve that goal. So much like Barry Bond's home run record baseball, the A380 may end up with more passenger orders than the 747-8, but there will always be an " * " next to the plane....and that asterix symbolizes "not profitable".

The 747-8 still has a future. It's just a shame that BA didn't follow LH's lead and realize that both the A380 and 748 can each play unique roles in the company.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:27 pm

Quoting Ba777-236 (Thread starter):
but I think this was a major blow to the project.

Having said that, does anyone here see the 748 being a sucessful plane? And by that, I mean production numbers reaching 200 to 300 frames. Somehow, I'm having troubling see those numbers, for the passenger version alone.

I'm a big Boeing fan (don't worry, I like Airbus too!) but I simply love the majestic look of the 747, and would hate to see her leave the skies in the not so distant future....

It was without question a HUGE blow to the project. I seriously doubt that the project now has any long term viability for pax aircraft. It may continue on for years as a freighter, but I dont know if Boieng will now even build the few that LH has ordered.

Quite frankly, I would rather have seen BA order the 748 and the A-350.
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Stitch
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:27 pm

Color me surprised on BA choosing the A380 exclusively, as I believe they have formally decided against the 747-8I regardless of any statements to the contrary they may (or may not) have made.

The freighter program is going to be successful, regardless. And Boeing would have likely committed to the 747-8I's development even without a launch order (or just the five BBJs) since tying it to the freighter model makes it much less expensive to do so and if nothing else, it's an extra "arrow in the quiver" for RFPs. I harbor no illusions that the 24 planes on order now will pay for everything, but they will ensure Boeing's costs to develop, certify, and produce the model are no real drain on resources.

[Edited 2007-09-27 14:51:39]
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:40 pm

Quoting NA (Reply 30):
flying the 773ER is NOT state-of-art anymore,

How is the 773ER any less state-of-the-art than the A380? I really don't see that. It's not like the A380 is a huge step up in the technology chain. 787/A350 hold that title.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:41 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 31):
I really don't care WHO thought the A380 was a better match...

Of course not.  rotfl 

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 31):
BA only ordered 12 A380's. That's not too many. That's enough for what....two flights to NRT, SIN/SYD, and maybe a couple of flights to the U.S? It's not like BA ordered 30 of the planes. They understand that the A380 is a VERY niche aircraft for their needs and is NOT a good 747 replacement on a 1-1 basis.

I think you've missed the point.

BA, as one of the World's largest 744 operators, has clearly decided that the 748i is even less of a good replacement for 744s than the A380. It's not about how many A380s BA has ordered, it's about how many 748is BA didn't order. What message does that send out to all the other 744 operators?
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:54 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 35):
Of course not

You can laugh if you want, that's fine. No skin off my back.  Smile

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 35):
It's not about how many A380s BA has ordered, it's about how many 748is BA didn't order

Well, it's about both, I suppose, when you think about it.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 35):
What message does that send out to all the other 744 operators?

Nothing really, since the A388 is not a 1-for-1 744 replacement. Some carriers can use the capacity increase, while many cannot.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:55 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 35):
What message does that send out to all the other 744 operators?

That with the exception of a score or two of trunk routes, fragmentation driven by competition is the name of the game and with the exception of those two score of trunk routes, current 747 routes will start to see traffic per plane lower, even as overall traffic rises.

So a plane of the size of the 747 is no longer needed and you either fly an A388 on those two score of trunk routes or a 787/A350 on everything else.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:09 pm

Put me down in the "no" column.

I think the loss at BA will get the wheels spinning on the Y3 program.

It's just too easy to portray the 747-8i as noisey and old tech, and to a fair degree, it is.

It's been on the market for a couple of years now, and SQ, QF and BA have turned up their noses at it.

I certainly don't see the pax version getting 150 orders, as suggested above. I have a hard time seeing it break 50 orders.
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:14 pm

Quoting NA (Reply 30):
After all I read and the more so from people I personally know who have flown on the A380 alraedy its more comfortable and has a roomier feel than a 777 or A340.
Also read what I said also: With A380, 748I and 787 flying the 773ER is NOT state-of-art anymore, it´ll be like the 744 now - one generation behind!

Surely it depends on what interior the airline decides to put in the a/c?
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:17 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
That with the exception of a score or two of trunk routes, fragmentation driven by competition is the name of the game and with the exception of those two score of trunk routes, current 747 routes will start to see traffic per plane lower, even as overall traffic rises.

Given the current state of A380 orders, are these trunk routes now covered? Clearly both Airbus and Boeing believe the market is there and that continued growth will fuel demand for sales of VLAs. Or do you see no more sales?


Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
So a plane of the size of the 747 is no longer needed and you either fly an A388 on those two score of trunk routes or a 787/A350 on everything else.

Unless, of course, you're LH.  wink 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:29 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 33):
I harbor no illusions that the 24 planes on order now will pay for everything, but they will ensure Boeing's costs to develop, certify, and produce the model are no real drain on resources.

I think that is the key here, the risk was low enough and the potential good enough that any outcome was fine with Boeing from a financial perspective. It has surely put price pressure on Airbus, and provided a stop gap until the market truly determines the next step in VLA, which I dont believe it has yet.

I was never one that thought BA would choose the 747 over the 380, it would not be a good thing for their local workforce, the EU, or Airbus. Nothing wrong with taking care of your own when doing so meets your needs, and I can only assume it does given BAs history.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 35):
What message does that send out to all the other 744 operators?

That for British Airways, the 380 was the best solution, which is not really much help for others in making their decisions, just like LH choosing the 748 will be of little help. Both are fine aircraft that will perform as promised.

For some the 748 will better fit their needs, for some the 380, for some both, and for the rest neither.
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:31 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 31):
The 747-8 still has a future. It's just a shame that BA didn't follow LH's lead and realize that both the A380 and 748 can each play unique roles in the company.

I will bet you that BA realised far, far better them you can what "unique roles in the company" each aircraft can play. I'll also bet you that they decided that having separate aircraft for those roles was LESS profitable then just having the A380 alone.

After all they have just spent hundreds of thousands of man hours evaluating gigabytes of data using god knows how many pentaflops of computing power to reach their conclusion. I bet with that, against your analysis anyday!

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
That with the exception of a score or two of trunk routes, fragmentation driven by competition is the name of the game and with the exception of those two score of trunk routes, current 747 routes will start to see traffic per plane lower, even as overall traffic rises.

While I don't disagree, I do think you are limiting the situation more than it is in the real world.

I dont think VLAs will be confined to just "trunk" routes, but also for any long haul route that is long enough so that frequency is NOT a competitive advantage. It's very subjective but I think that point is somewhere around 12 hours non stop. Above that arrival/departure windows are too small to allow for a good spread of arrival/departure times so little to no competitive advantage.

As well, while I am sure some routes will see lower per plan traffic, for a while, on some routes, providing growth continues I think it will start to rise again due to that growth.

As a result of all this I think you estimate of 40? (not too sure what a "score" is) VLA route is too low. I can think of 22 off the top of my head which have been nominate for A380 service by airlines that have already ordered it. i am sure more than 18 more will appear.

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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:35 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 38):
I certainly don't see the pax version getting 150 orders, as suggested above

I think about half of that will be it for the passenger version of the plane. LH will probably end up using all of its options for it, and I think Boeing will get 20-30 new orders when all is said and done.

Along the same lines, I wonder when the A380 will pass 200?

Quoting Revelation (Reply 38):
It's just too easy to portray the 747-8i as noisey and old tech, and to a fair degree, it is.

How is that the case? Noisey and old tech? We're not talking about a 747-200 here. 7478i will be an ADVANCED aircraft.
I can not see where people can honestly make the argument that the plane is old technology. It's more like a steady upgrade in technology to a tried and true design.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:36 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 38):
I think the loss at BA will get the wheels spinning on the Y3 program.

You think Boeing will start spending $10bn+ to replace a plane that hasn't even flown yet?  Wow!

The lack of 748i sales might make Boeing consider if they actually need a Y3 to cover the 773/747 space. It would be significantly cheaper to grow the 787 as far as they can than develop an all-new plane.
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:38 pm

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 42):
not too sure what a "score" is

Score = 20
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:39 pm

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 42):
I will bet you that BA realised far, far better them you can what "unique roles in the company" each aircraft can play

Yeah, I don't doubt it, I don't work for them.

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 42):
I bet with that, against your analysis anyday!

That works for me. I'm not trying to convince anyone that my analysis is better than BA's. I have my opinions and I plan on standing by them even if that means it's not popular with the a.net contingency.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:43 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 40):
Given the current state of A380 orders, are these trunk routes now covered? Clearly both Airbus and Boeing believe the market is there and that continued growth will fuel demand for sales of VLAs. Or do you see no more sales?

I see additional sales because airlines like CX will (likely) be placing A380 orders, as well, and I expect VS will now re-confirm their existing order. Eventually, consolidation amongst the "Big Six" in the US will create an airline or two that has the traffic to justify A380 ops to Asia and Europe/Africa.

I believe Airbus should comfortably be able to reach at least 400-500 A388 sales over program life. It won't cover the costs, but it's not going to be a..."fiasco"...either by any stretch.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 40):
Unless, of course, you're LH.  Wink

There is a joker in every deck.  Smile

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 42):
I don't think VLAs will be confined to just "trunk" routes, but also for any long haul route that is long enough so that frequency is NOT a competitive advantage. It's very subjective but I think that point is somewhere around 12 hours non stop. Above that arrival/departure windows are too small to allow for a good spread of arrival/departure times so little to no competitive advantage.

Before the 787 and A350, I would have agreed with you. I think the 787 and A350 will change the economics of those long-haul routes to the point where frequency will become a competitive advantage.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:56 pm

Boeing may feel that they had spotted a "gap in the market" (circa 75 seats either way) for the 748i. The problem is that apart from this strange one off order from LH it appears that there is "no market in the gap". Every airline is going for 777/346/350 as far more flexible option in the "mid market" where economics and schedule frequency are so important.

It could however sell as "a poor mans A380" just as the 340 range did against Boeing,s superior products at the time. It won't worry Boeing as the costs are so low - in the same way that the 340 was a derivitive within an existing family.

I imagine that Airbus offered quite a good deal to BA as the order was so important (and the 748 has kept them "honest"). They may be less willing to do the same for smaller airlines now that the fundamental pattern (excepting LH) has now been established.This could open a small door for the 748i -but no more.
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:58 pm

Quoting American 767 (Reply 19):
No other airline in Europe is even thinking of it (yes I know Cargolux ordered it, I'm talking of passenger 748 aircraft).
Iberia prefers the A346.

IB does need a bigger aircraft than existing 340-600. An A-380 is too big for them, so I believe the most suitable airliner for IB on the top is the 747-8I ...but unfortunately there are many sing telling IB will not be a Boeing customer anytime soon.
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