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BlueSky1976
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:33 am

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 140):
The planes that 748F mainly is taking sales from are the 744F and 777F.

Uhm, wake up and smell the coffee, chief. Boeing stopped offering 744F the minute 748F went on sale. The 777F is totally different class of freighters BTW.
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jtdieffen
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:34 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 138):
How many A380s had been ordered when the programme was the same age as B748i? I'd be willing to bet the farm that it was a whole lot more than 20 and to more than one customer too. If there are no more B748i orders shortly, it is my opinion that the programme will be cancelled and LH will never take delivery of their ordered aircraft.

While a good point, it's also important to tally the total number of new VLA fleet renewals since the launch of the 747-8i. Again, the A380 had many orders in the first two years, but only two new customers have signed for VLAs since the launch of the 747-8i, Lufthansa and BA. One went for 20 748is the other for 12 A380. Other fleet renewals will be coming along over the next few years and until we have more than two under our belt with both planes in contention, we can't really make blanket statements about the program's success. There is plenty of time. Flight testing will be a very important part of this process too, to see whether it can demonstrate some type of superior performance. I'm not going to trumpet the 748i as the best thing since sliced bread, and I'm not going to say that won't be a weak seller, but it's far too early and too few orders have been decided since it's launch to call it a failure.

Also, I think that there is no chance of the program being canceled. The freighter is doing well enough to carry the program and it is worth something to Boeing to have a pax VLA up for offer.

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 138):
The B747-8 will be a great freighter but its viability as a pax airliner is becoming less and less convincing. BA are very astute when it comes to fleet planning. If the aircraft fitted their business they would have bought it. The fact that they haven't speaks volumes and can only generate further A380 orders. IMO the B748i is dead as a dodo.

What about LH's fleet planning? They are one of the most profitable airlines in the world. BA's opinion is important, but it's unlikely to be a deal breaker for Boeing or any other airlines. I'm sure that over time we will see at least a few carriers operating both, some operating just the 748i and some operating just the A380. I'm sure the A380 will sell more copies than 748i, BUT which program will actually make more money is up for debate. At this point my money is on the 747 having a healthier bottom line. The success of a program should not be based on the number of units out there, but really, how well the plane performs, and how much profit it made its manufacturer. Only time will tell.
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:41 am

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 138):
180 on the books before EIS and production sold out for 5 years is not a figure to be sniffed at.

Having a break even point of 420 determined one year ago (reference), and having one year of watching the Euro go from 1.26 USD to 1.39 USD, and spending one year trying to sort out how to sell off your factories without having the workers drop their hammers is something to sniff at. Airbus has some challenging days ahead of it.
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:43 am

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 111):
what they THINK doesn't make it true.

You do realize you are contradicting yourself with this statement? I really do see where you are coming from though. This is definitely not a case of "if you build it, they will come". It's just way too soon to be playing "Taps" for the 748i. The 748i should be a better fir for some airlines that currently have 744's. Many airlines have stated that the A380 is too much airplane. The 748i would be more infrastructure friendly as the overall footprint of the 744 and 748i are not that substantially different. There may be several 744 operators that can fit two 748i's side by side whereas if an A380 is on gate, the other is unusable. Just a scenario I realize as different aircraft types could be scheduled while an A380 is on gate but I think you see what I'm getting at.

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 138):
IMO the B748i is dead as a dodo.

About as dead as a crane if you ask me.

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Stitch
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:02 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 150):
Uhm, wake up and smell the coffee, chief. Boeing stopped offering 744F the minute 748F went on sale. The 777F is totally different class of freighters BTW.

AsiaFlyer has a point in that if the 747-8F didn't exist, those 65 frames would have been 744Fs and 744ERFs.

However, it is important to note that Boeing didn't ram the 748F down the throats of their customers. The customers agreed that the 748F was worth purchasing and purchasing at enough of a price premium over the 744(ER)F to make it worth launching.

If it was just about Boeing throwing it out there, regardless of customer interest, we would have seen the 747-X and 747-X Stretch launched a decade ago.
 
astuteman
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:17 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 144):
But the one-two punch of really-cheap 744BCFs and cheap 748Fs should ensure that an A380F in any form never sees the light of day,

FWIW I don't think this is anything remotely like a "given".  no 
The A380F may yet give certain carriers, possibly not many, something that the 747 can't.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 146):
The freighter will sell fairly well until something better is available (which will NOT be the A380F),

Again, whilst not necessarily "better", I think the A380F, whatever it finally looks like (and that may differ in relevant detail from the original) will be "different" enough, as Keejse points out, to command "a" market.

You're quite right though - the 748F looks like being a home run..  Smile

Quoting Stitch (Reply 148):
Which appears to be superfluous based on the non-interest it has generated in the markets that could use it

Yet 3 carriers signed up for 22 frames + 20 options reasonably quickly. None of those WANTED to cancel theri order. They were placed in that situation by the programme delays.
Who's to say that number wouldn't have been higher, by now, if the programme hadn't been delayed, and Airbus have elected to withdraw it from the market for the time being, to concentrate on the pax version (correctly, it would seem  Smile )
It's extremely difficult to sell a plane you're not selling.....  Smile

Based on the logic I see presented that says the 748i works even with only LH's order, because of the "trivial" additional development cost beyond the 748F, I see no reason why the logic shouldn't equally hold for the A380F.

I for one, am pretty confident an A380F will go into service some day. It may only be as successful as the 748i (ouch!  biggrin  - just funning  Smile ), but that's good enough, isn't it?

Regards
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:17 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 139):
No, Boeing won't cancel the 747-8i. The most of the programme-development weight is carried on the -8f sales, which - in turn - will be quite successfull. There will be more 747-8i sales, as a matter of fact I expect AI and CX go for them over A380, I wouldn't be surprised if JL and NH end up having a dozen or so either...

With respect, I cannot see Cathay or Air India trying to compete on the same high volume routes as BA A380s using B748i. Its not going to happen. I expect to see at least CX ordering A380 by the middle of next year.
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:34 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 155):
Based on the logic I see presented that says the 748i works even with only LH's order, because of the "trivial" additional development cost beyond the 748F, I see no reason why the logic shouldn't equally hold for the A380F.

Because they are not the same case at all. To go from 747 freighter to pax means building a different plug (the pax plug is in the hump area, the freighter is behind the hump) and to upgrade an already existing interior design. To go from A380 pax to freighter, you have to upgrade landing gear and other structural members, and design a cargo handling system and a large cargo door that is not coming from any other previous family member.
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jtdieffen
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:37 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 155):
Based on the logic I see presented that says the 748i works even with only LH's order, because of the "trivial" additional development cost beyond the 748F, I see no reason why the logic shouldn't equally hold for the A380F.

The difference being that the A380 program isn't close to breaking even, whereas the 747 (most likely) is. Adding more expense to an over-budget, behind-schedule program isn't trivial. Assuming the 747 is on schedule and is close to breaking even, it is trivial.
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JRDC930
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:39 am

Quoting Jtdieffen (Reply 151):
BA's opinion is important, but it's unlikely to be a deal breaker for Boeing or any other airlines

It wont be a deal breaker, but it is a sales blow, im confident boeing was counting on several dozen orders from BA which now, according to BA's own statements, wont occur. Too early to dispel the 748I? Yes. Is it looking good right now? No.

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 153):
I realize as different aircraft types could be scheduled while an A380 is on gate but I think you see what I'm getting at.

I see what you mean, and i realize i contradicted my self, im aware of the Trippe/boeing relationship with the original 747, however i dont think either of those situations occurred with the 748i,but then again i dont have direct access to boeing and airline communications.

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 156):
With respect, I cannot see Cathay or Air India trying to compete on the same high volume routes as BA A380s using B748i. Its not going to happen. I expect to see at least CX ordering A380 by the middle of next year.

Agree 100%, how are these airlines with Business models quite similar to BA's going to compete by using a smaller aircraft on some of the routes that need the 380? Frequency? Possibly, but that would be a 777/350 not a 748i. CX has never stated (to my knowledge) a desire for a plane like the 748i. AI is moving to smaller aircraft with possibly a true VLA for some very high density routes.(380). I wont despite my own opinions, count the 748i dead just YET; but its not looking good.
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:40 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 155):
Based on the logic I see presented that says the 748i works even with only LH's order, because of the "trivial" additional development cost beyond the 748F, I see no reason why the logic shouldn't equally hold for the A380F.

The only carriers that signed on to the A380F were package carriers; the A380 worked for them because they carry many small packages that aren't very dense, so volume was more important than weight capacity. This is unusual in air freight, and the difficulty of loading the second deck will, IMHO, make the A380F undesirable for the vast majority of air freight operators. Due to the relatively few operators who can make use of the A380F's advantages (yes, I will concede that it does have some) I cannot see that it will be worth Airbus's while to divert the manpower and money necessary to finish its development, regardless of how far along they were. The A350 is going to keep all available engineers busy for several years yet, and if Boeing proceeds with Y1 (as everyone on this forum, myself included, seems to think is a given) Airbus will HAVE to answer or lose their cash cow. Spending another few hundred million and X number of engineering hours on the A380F when they had only been able to sell 22 when it will mean diverting those resources from the above mentioned projects that are essential to Airbus's future health (and on which they are substantially behind Boeing) smacks to me of poor management. By the time Airbus can spare the resources it will probably be 2018 at least, and by then I'm sure there will be other pressing matters that will take precedence. This applies as well (although to a lesser extent) to the A389 and any other improvements to the A380. Yes, the A380 with A350XWB engines would be a great plane, but would the cost of developing it combined with the lost opportunity cost of diverting the resources from the A350 and A320RS be recovered by sufficient sales to justify it? Based on current trends in air transport I doubt it.
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jtdieffen
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:57 am

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 159):
Too early to dispel the 748I? Yes. Is it looking good right now? No.

I wouldn't say it's looking bad, either.

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 159):
Agree 100%, how are these airlines with Business models quite similar to BA's going to compete by using a smaller aircraft on some of the routes that need the 380? Frequency? Possibly, but that would be a 777/350 not a 748i. CX has never stated (to my knowledge) a desire for a plane like the 748i. AI is moving to smaller aircraft with possibly a true VLA for some very high density routes.(380). I wont despite my own opinions, count the 748i dead just YET; but its not looking good.

The problem is that competition isn't necessarily based on how many seats you have on a route. Service and amenities are important factors. Also, you need to be able to fill your planes. I don't know the exact figure, but something like 80 or 90 percent of international traffic in India is carried by non-Indian airlines. It is critical to size your planes according to the percent of market you can hope to gain. AI might not be able to fill A380s (then again, they might). AI also has a huge fleet of Boeings coming in. The 787s and 748i could have some nice commonality. Yields are not determined by how many seats you have on a plane. A380 vs 748 is not as cut-and-dry as some make it out. Bigger does not necessarily make more money.
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:18 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 146):
748i will keep Airbus honest on pricing

-  checkmark  , even as it's not only that - the original idea of 380 was a monopoly cash-cow sold in dozens to plenty of current 744 operators. That business case is in the waste bin.

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 159):
Too early to dispel the 748I? Yes. Is it looking good right now? No.

 checkmark  , and way different of what you said before ("I KNEW IT!!! IKNEW IT!!!!!"  Wink).
 
astuteman
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:29 am

Quoting Jtdieffen (Reply 158):
The difference being that the A380 program isn't close to breaking even, whereas the 747 (most likely) is. Adding more expense to an over-budget, behind-schedule program isn't trivial

I don't consider the B/E of the base model to be particularly relevant, in this case.
If the incremental ROI is there, it's worth doing (both A380F and A389/R).
SEPilot's comment below is, for me, far more relevant.
Where does it fit in to the business plan?

Quoting Revelation (Reply 157):
To go from A380 pax to freighter, you have to upgrade landing gear and other structural members,

These were/are happening anyway.
IIRC the landing gear needs VERY little upgrade in this instance (an additional pair of brakes is about it..).
The whole plane has been deliberately designed to be readily grown to upwards of 625 tonnes MTOW.

The 748 needs new undercarriage and additional strengthening ..  Wink

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 160):
By the time Airbus can spare the resources it will probably be 2018 at least

Don't know if you're right on the timing, but I certainly agree it's the nub of the question.
For now, I'll stand by my prediction, and prepare to eat humble pie, if the A380F doesn't go into service before I die ..  biggrin 

Regards
 
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Stitch
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:31 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 155):
FWIW I don't think this is anything remotely like a "given".  no  The A380F may yet give certain carriers, possibly not many, something that the 747 can't.

Heck, pressurize a 747LCF hold to around 15,000ft and heat it to around 50°F and it would make a better package carrier then the A388F in terms of raw volume. Big grin

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 155):
Yet 3 carriers signed up for 22 frames + 20 options reasonably quickly. None of those WANTED to cancel theri order. They were placed in that situation by the programme delays.

Per EK's own statements, they decided they needed the nose-loading door after all and went with the 747-8F.

As to 5X and FX, yes they would have stayed, but they immediately found perfectly suitable replacements from Boeing with the 777F, which works with every cargo-handling facility in the world right now with no modifications or additional equipment. I tend to think that both will likely continue with 777Fs rather then go back to the A380F for their package transport needs. They need one extra 777F for every two A380Fs they would have had, but that gives them more flexibility for irregular ops or new expansion.

Quote:
Who's to say that number wouldn't have been higher, by now, if the programme hadn't been delayed, and Airbus have elected to withdraw it from the market for the time being, to concentrate on the pax version (correctly, it would seem...

No disrespect, but the customers themselves? Airbus has been offering it for a decade, and yet they all keep ordering 747Fs...
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:51 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 164):
No disrespect, but the customers themselves? Airbus has been offering it for a decade, and yet they all keep ordering 747Fs...

none taken.  Smile
No disrespect, but the A380F (on offer for 6 years..) DID garner orders, and it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that others might have been found had the programme not gone west by 2 years, and subsequently been pulled.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 164):
As to 5X and FX, yes they would have stayed, but they immediately found perfectly suitable replacements from Boeing with the 777F, which works with every cargo-handling facility in the world right now with no modifications or additional equipment. I tend to think that both will likely continue with 777Fs rather then go back to the A380F for their package transport needs

5X possibly, but I'm pretty sure FX have indicated they'll be back at the trough if ever Airbus put some feed in it...

Regards
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:55 am

The idea that if your competition is flying the A380 that you need to also is vastly overblown, IMHO. The vast majority of the traveling public buys on price, and a substantial portion of the remainder buys on convenience (i.e their schedule matching yours.) There are a small number of aficionados (who are grossly overrepresented on this forum) who will buy on the basis of plane type, but not enough to make a significant difference. Of course there are also a fairly small percentage that seek the best premium services, and the A380 would certainly give them an edge. Otherwise, whatever plane gives the best economics will most likely be the best to buy, and it will be the A380 only if the airline can consistently fill it.
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Stitch
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:11 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 165):
No disrespect, but the A380F (on offer for 6 years..) DID garner orders, and it's not beyond the bounds of possibility that others might have been found had the programme not gone west by 2 years, and subsequently been pulled.

No it is not beyond the bounds of possibility. But it does seem to be beyond the bounds of "reasonableness" (forgive me making up a word). I'm pretty sure Airbus has been offering the freighter model since the A3XX days in the mid-1990s, touting it's ability to carry heavier cargo loads farther, yet companies continue to choose the 747F even with less payload and less range.

If Airbus is willing to ante-up a few billion to put A380-specific cargo handling facilities in the world's top 50 cargo markets, I expect that would do wonders for the A380F's sales to cargo operators. They're choosing the 747F because they already have all the infrastructure in place and paid for. The incremental revenue benefits the A380F brings them is outweighed by the not so incremental costs needed to properly and effectively support it.

It's the classic "chicken or the egg" effect. If the infrastructure existed, the A380F would sell because it does more. But the infrastructure doesn't exist, so those benefits are useless, and the A380F doesn't sell.
 
astuteman
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:18 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 166):
Of course there are also a fairly small percentage that seek the best premium services

I wouldn't profess to be an expert, but I see this particular market as not all that small, and definitely expanding rapidly, certainly if you add the word "economy" alongside the word premium.

Whatever the aircraft, most of the majors (outside the USA at least - I've little knowledge of US carriers products) appear to be spending inordinately large amounts of money these days developing "premium economy" products that might "differentiate" them from competitors offerings (talking medium/long-haul specifically).

I personally feel it's a kick-back against LCC no-frills, by an ever-growing population group, who might not be able to afford business class, but certainly want, and can afford, a few creature comforts.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 166):
There are a small number of aficionados (who are grossly overrepresented on this forum) who will buy on the basis of plane type, but not enough to make a significant difference

 checkmark 

Regards
 
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:53 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 167):

It's the classic "chicken or the egg" effect. If the infrastructure existed, the A380F would sell because it does more. But the infrastructure doesn't exist, so those benefits are useless, and the A380F doesn't sell.

But the A380F only does more with selective types of cargo. I still see loading the second deck as a huge obstacle; having had experience operating forklifts, without having ramps to the second deck I foresee a big problem in loading it. Since the A380F was first offered the 748F made its appearance, and has have considerably reduced the advantage that the A380 offers. For oversized cargo the 747 is far superior; even without the nose door it offers higher ceilings.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 168):
Whatever the aircraft, most of the majors (outside the USA at least - I've little knowledge of US carriers products) appear to be spending inordinately large amounts of money these days developing "premium economy" products that might "differentiate" them from competitors offerings (talking medium/long-haul specifically).

They can do this on any aircraft; where the A380 has an advantage in floor area available. Premium economy, AFAIK, is not using more space so much as adding amenities. Where they are adding space, of course, the A380 does have advantages, but only if the airline can fill it.
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sstsomeday
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:06 am

Quoting HNL-Jack (Reply 85):
Indeed, it is only a drop in the bucket. Looks like a marketing move to me. To be competitive with the likes of AF, LH and others, it needed a limited number.

I would suggest they have done their research and have determined they actually want/need the 380 for certain slot restricted, high density routes. However, I would agree that PART of their desire is to remain competitive to terms of their inflight product, and the PERCEPTION of their inflight product, ESPECIALLY with high yield passengers. And high-yield passengers, as a group, are more aware of what type of A/C they are flying. I think being based primarily at Heathrow for international operations puts BA at a service and passenger satisfaction disadvantage, so I would opine that they don't want the additional stigma / distinction of being the mega-legacy carrier flying in and out of Europe WITHOUT the 380. That's probably PART of their decision making process.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 168):
I personally feel it's a kick-back against LCC no-frills, by an ever-growing population group, who might not be able to afford business class, but certainly want, and can afford, a few creature comforts.

I agree. It seems to me that airlines are restructuring to become as streamlined and efficient as possible, and the majors are additionally catering much more to their high-yield passengers, and flying much fewer empty seats than they used to. I think the legacies are quite willing to let the low-yield, bottom-feeder leisure travellers go the way of the LLC. I think we will see smaller and fuller economy cabins, more economy-plus, and fewer seats available for advance purchase or last minute rock bottom fares that are sold by the majors below cost.

As an example, I was stunned to get only 1/4 of my F.F. points when I recently flew LAX-LHR and beyond in coach on BA. BA clearly does not value my business at that fare. Not a judgement; I'm past being angry about it. I am simply noticing this now a reality of economics; that the majors are doing what they need to do to be profitable, and it's NOT about their coach product.

Parenthetically - this is one reality that does NOT bode well for the VLA's, with all that capacity per A/C. Premium travellers are looking for comfort, yes, but also the convenience of frequency. And it's difficult not to have a BIG economy class (low yield) cabin in a 380...
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JetBlueGuy2006
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:25 am

What about the current 744 operators in the US, mainly NW? Are they replacing the 744 with the 787? It seems like they might be a strong candidate for the 748 and the 748I.
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Stitch
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:32 am

Quoting JetBlueGuy2006 (Reply 171):
What about the current 744 operators in the US, mainly NW? Are they replacing the 744 with the 787? It seems like they might be a strong candidate for the 748 and the 748I.

I think one of two things will happen in the domestic US market:

  • Consolidation will happen and "the Big Six" will become the "Big Three" or "Big Four", which will consolidate traffic to the point that an A388 would become a viable model;
  • Competition will continue to fragment traffic loads on a per plane basis and as such, UA and NW will move away from the 747 to the largest widebody twin models and AA/CO/DL/NW/US will stick with medium and small widebody twins.
 
glacote
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 5:50 am

Boeing is in an ideal position indeed. The B748F pays for itself; the B748i is dirt cheap to develop (hence Boeing's reluctance to match e.g. EK's wishes). They don't need to actually sell any B748i to undermine Airbus profit margin on the A388. They merely need to credibly offer it.

They already have a customer (the project is credibly launched) and everybody knows it's a dirt-cheap derivative (they are credible in saying they will build it). So their offering actually is credible. That was not the case until LH ordered it for real.

So all they need to do is to keep offering it a "reasonable" price (no need for hard discounts). This ensures that Airbus needs to match a "reasonable" price for the A388. Hence that they can't enjoy monopoly pricing nor product tieing ("if you want A388, may I 'suggest' you also buy A350XWBs ?"). Which supposedly ruins the business case for the A388 - because if the project was sustainable at "raisonable" prices rather than "monopoly" prices, then both manufacturers could have afforded to enter the market. That we know is not the case.

Point being: the B748i does certainly not need to be any successful at all to still be an extremely valuable product for Boeing.

The beauty of the whole thing is that they can even afford to "cancel" the B748i in say 4 years. They will have ruined 5 years of A388 sales at a point where immediate cash-flow was EADS most urgent medicine.

I am not sure analysts really grasp to what extent the LH sale was a masterpiece coup.
 
RIX
Posts: 1590
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 6:20 am

Well, whoever needs 380 capacity will still go for it, 748I or not. But I like both the idea and the way you put it  Wink...
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:45 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 152):
watching the Euro go from 1.26 USD to 1.39 USD

..you mean $1.4287..... Wink

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 156):
I expect to see at least CX ordering A380 by the middle of next year.

...maybe/maybe not mate...

"''We'll look at the A380, the 747-8 Intercontinental, the 787 and eventually the A350. We keep these things under constant evaluation. One day, I'm sure we'll want a larger aircraft, and then that's when the A380 will really come into contention.''"*

*source:bloomberg.com

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 166):
The idea that if your competition is flying the A380 that you need to also is vastly overblown, IMHO.

 checkmark ....that has gone by the wayside of the piano bars, etc.

..of note, CX looks to be quite interested in the B748F......which is perfectly fine for Boeing since it will make the B748 program even close to returning a positive ROI for shareholders.. yes 

"Boeing Co.'s 747-8 ''makes a very good freighter and we'll probably be making a decision on freighters before we make a decision on any more passenger aircraft. So that's likely to be the one that comes first, and it's likely to come soon."**

** source:bloomberg.com
"Up the Irons!"
 
StressGuy
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 8:18 am

Glacote's post #173 is brilliant. This was Boeing's intention all along to get a go ROI from the 747-8 but more than that to put pricing pressure on the A380 and they seem to be fairly successful so far. It will be interesting to see exactly how many 747-8's they sell.
 
SJCRRPAX
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 8:23 am

Quoting StressGuy (Reply 176):
Glacote's post #173 is brilliant. This was Boeing's intention all along to get a go ROI from the 747-8 but more than that to put pricing pressure on the A380 and they seem to be fairly successful so far. It will be interesting to see exactly how many 747-8's they sell.

If the Times of London is to be believed BA got two for the price of one. I wish somebody would do that with Toyota, both the wife and I need new cars. (I guess 40% off is normal for airplanes and key accounts, but 50% does seem like a lot)
 
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keesje
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 8:43 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 148):
Which is why the nose-cargo door remains a popular option on new-build 747Fs (every one I have seen roll out of PAE for the past two years has had it) because it can be used essentially anywhere.

It not an option every new F has itwhether you need it or not.. Most 747 F´s don´t have a nose door, they are converted.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 155):
I for one, am pretty confident an A380F will go into service some day. It may only be as successful as the 748i (ouch! - just funning ), but that's good enough, isn't it?

 Big grin

Quoting Glacote (Reply 173):

Boeing is in an ideal position indeed. The B748F pays for itself; the B748i is dirt cheap to develop (hence Boeing's reluctance to match e.g. EK's wishes). They don't need to actually sell any B748i to undermine Airbus profit margin on the A388. They merely need to credibly offer it.

I don´t think Boeing needs to much 747-8i "ideal positions.." (or was your post sarcastic ?)

Regarding price I don´t even want to guess what price BA was offfered. The entire 747-8i program and Boeings position in the VLA market was/is at stake.

About 747-8F pricing, I don´t know. what I do know is that in the coming years the market will be flooded with 747-400 China / Israel converted freighters selling for $70-80 million including D-check..

[Edited 2007-09-29 01:51:01]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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ER757
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 8:45 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 169):
I still see loading the second deck as a huge obstacle; having had experience operating forklifts, without having ramps to the second deck I foresee a big problem in loading it

 checkmark  It's scary enough when those scissor lifts have M1's and M2's going on the main deck of a 747 or MD11,
Going all the way up to the top deck of an A380 would be quite an adventure. Accidents waiting to happen IMO. Not to mention all the financial outlay for this new loading equipment. I really believe that was one of the main reasons the A380F never got much traction.

As for the 748i, I think its fate will be known after the A380 has been delivered in sufficient numbers and has been flown on enough routes to get a clear picture of load factors. If they are going out nearly full, then the 748i will find itself in an ever shrinking niche. If a significant number of A380's are flying around 1/3 to 1/2 empty...hello 748i. Remember all the carriers that bought the original 747's and then just couldn't put enough butts in the seats - we could see that happen with the larger A380 as well.
 
JayinKitsap
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:15 am

You hit a walk away home run in the playoffs! Besides for allowing Boeing to offer a full range, the 748I is a spoiler and a very effective one. If it isn't a must sell for Boeing, they can offer at a fair price. The airline will be very grateful for keeping the negotiations honest. Did the presence of the 748I save BA at least 10% of list, I would think far more than that but 12 x $300M x 10% = $ 360M. In BA's case, there was the 787 that BA wanted, it is quite possible that by saving this kind of $, that BA upped the 787 by like 4 units.

The 748I will sell, but in spurts. It will sell when VLA's are being purchased by someone that Airbus isn't fighting tooth and nail for. But the lost margin on every 380 that Airbus sells will certainly crimp Airbus's ability to fund further development.

Quoting Glacote (Reply 173):
Boeing is in an ideal position indeed. The B748F pays for itself; the B748i is dirt cheap to develop (hence Boeing's reluctance to match e.g. EK's wishes). They don't need to actually sell any B748i to undermine Airbus profit margin on the A388. They merely need to credibly offer it.

They already have a customer (the project is credibly launched) and everybody knows it's a dirt-cheap derivative (they are credible in saying they will build it). So their offering actually is credible. That was not the case until LH ordered it for real.

So all they need to do is to keep offering it a "reasonable" price (no need for hard discounts). This ensures that Airbus needs to match a "reasonable" price for the A388. Hence that they can't enjoy monopoly pricing nor product tieing ("if you want A388, may I 'suggest' you also buy A350XWBs ?"). Which supposedly ruins the business case for the A388 - because if the project was sustainable at "raisonable" prices rather than "monopoly" prices, then both manufacturers could have afforded to enter the market. That we know is not the case.

Point being: the B748i does certainly not need to be any successful at all to still be an extremely valuable product for Boeing.

The beauty of the whole thing is that they can even afford to "cancel" the B748i in say 4 years. They will have ruined 5 years of A388 sales at a point where immediate cash-flow was EADS most urgent medicine.

I am not sure analysts really grasp to what extent the LH sale was a masterpiece coup.
 
ZKSUJ
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:55 am

Just a note. For the guys above that said TG will not order, they ordered 8 748is last week.
 
JRDC930
Posts: 882
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:00 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 172):
"Big Three" or "Big Four", which will consolidate traffic to the point that an A388 would become a viable model;

Hope this blatant type of monopolistic system never happens... DOJ will never let this happen, bad for every one except ceo's.
U.S. Legacy carriers,STILL leaders in lowering industry standards...
 
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Stitch
Posts: 26904
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:01 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 178):
It not an option - every new F has it whether you need it or not.. Most 747 F's don't have a nose door, they are converted.

Boeing sold 73 747-200Fs and 13 747-200Cs (which had the nose door). They have also sold 231 744Fs/744ERFs/748Fs, which is a grand total of 304 nose-door-equipped 747s to date.

Boeing built 78 747-200Ms, 21 747-300Ms and 61 747-400Ms, for a total of 160. Last I heard, there were 36 744BCFs and 24 747-400BDSFs ordered. IAI has also performed 38 747-100SF and 747-200SF conversions and Boeing has done 17 747-100/-200/-300 conversions, but some appear to have been M models with their passenger areas converted to additional cargo area, so that number is probably too high. However, B/E Aerospace has done a few, as well, so we'll just set that to "zero" and let the extra IAI planes cover it. So we're looking at a total of 258 conversions.

So it appears that the majority of 747 freighters appear to be new-builds, and not conversions, and as such, the nose-door is the more common feature.
 
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ER757
Posts: 3740
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:07 am

Quoting ZKSUJ (Reply 181):
Just a note. For the guys above that said TG will not order, they ordered 8 748is last week.

You sure about that? Boeing's order page shows nothing for Thai and exactly zero UFO 747's.
 
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Stitch
Posts: 26904
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:09 am

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 182):
Hope this blatant type of monopolistic system never happens... DOJ will never let this happen, bad for every one except ceo's.

The US government and private equity firms constantly bailing them out with cash grants to keep all six afloat and bleeding each other isn't exactly doing the nation a whole lot of good, either...  Sad

Quoting ZKSUJ (Reply 181):
Just a note. For the guys above that said TG will not order, they ordered 8 748is last week.

That report appears to be more a mis-translation of a previous report rather then a PR of an order.
 
sstsomeday
Posts: 821
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 11:55 am

Quoting ER757 (Reply 179):
As for the 748i, I think its fate will be known after the A380 has been delivered in sufficient numbers and has been flown on enough routes to get a clear picture of load factors. If they are going out nearly full, then the 748i will find itself in an ever shrinking niche.

If I may play the other side:

If the 380, representing the high end of the VLA market, is niche because of it's enormous capacity, then the 747 may be less "niche" buy virtue of it carrying 100 less people. That would make it more flexible in terms of it's usage, and less of a liability regarding how many seats need to have behinds in them.

It may be that it won't be the 380 that finally kills the 747, but Y3. (Unless the decentralizing of the playing field and the push by high-yield customers for frequency takes care of BOTH of them).

However, that said, I still find the BA decision to go exclusively with the 380 and then eventually smaller twins to replace it's 55 747s, while snubbing the -8 completely (at least that's the present course) is a surprise, and a blow to the -8 program.
I come in peace
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:22 pm

Quoting StressGuy (Reply 176):
Glacote's post #173 is brilliant. This was Boeing's intention all along to get a go ROI from the 747-8 but more than that to put pricing pressure on the A380 and they seem to be fairly successful so far. It will be interesting to see exactly how many 747-8's they sell.

...hey, wait a minute there buddy, I pipped Glacote to the post with my post.... Wink

..give me some credit please.. biggrin 

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 141):
1)The purpose of the B748F/I program is to return a positive ROI (return on investment), which it will probably do
2)Apply a lot of pricing pressure on the A380....if Boeing wasn't going to build the B748I, do you think Airbus would be willing to give any carrier decent discounts (whatever it may be)? BA needed a VLA, if there was no B748I's, Airbus basically could have charged a lot more money, as it would have been the "only game in town".....
"Up the Irons!"
 
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Stitch
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:37 pm

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 186):
If the 380, representing the high end of the VLA market, is niche because of it's enormous capacity, then the 747 may be less "niche" buy virtue of it carrying 100 less people. That would make it more flexible in terms of it's usage, and less of a liability regarding how many seats need to have behinds in them.

I'm just wondering if the 747-8I is addressing a niche that is no longer relevant with the advent of the 350-seat twins and 550-seat A380. The A380 offers the raw capacity for the routes that need it, putting it above the 747. And the 77W/A3510/787-11 offer better RASM and CASM for the routes that don't need the raw capacity due to competition or frequency (or both) driving down the "average load per plane".
 
RIX
Posts: 1590
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:44 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 178):
The entire 747-8i program and Boeings position in the VLA market was/is at stake.

- Boeing position on VLA market looks to be quite clear: in addition to shuttering to pieces 380 low seat-mile cost monopoly, which was done by new generation twins, to press it even more with competitor - even by far not a direct one. Hence, it's not Boeing that has something at stake. Once again: Airbus considers a victory selling 12 + 7 380s to a huge 744 operator. In no way that is what they were projecting with the whole A3XX idea.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 178):
in the coming years the market will be flooded with 747-400 China / Israel converted freighters selling for $70-80 million including D-check.

- there are always plenty of second hand cheap planes out there. Somehow, there is always someone who wants something new. And even buys this something new in quite good amounts. 748F is more capable and efficient, and sells very well. Or do you expect Cargolux to cancel their order and get couple of dozens conversions?

BTW, don't they need Boeing certification/support for any conversion? Will Boeing provide it  Wink?
 
JetBlueGuy2006
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:50 pm

Alright....I have read it at least 40 times, and feel stupid asking, but what does VLA stand for?

Thanx
Home Airport: Capital Region International Airport (KLAN)
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1771
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:20 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 169):
I still see loading the second deck as a huge obstacle

That's not a big deal at all. What killed the A380F is fuel burn. Here is a chart showing the evolution of freighter fuel burn (per tonne-mile)



[edit: assumptions are 4000 nm sector at max payload (exception 3000 nm for the shorter-legged 763F and A332F) ]

By inspection, it is patently obvious why the A380F stopped selling. Also by inspection, the upcoming CFRP widebody twins should make some rather good freighters, so the A380F may not be worth pursuing at all-- unless payload capacity is massively increased from 150 tonnes to bring the density into line with general freight.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 175):
you mean $1.4287

The dollar's weakness is sending EADS stock through the roof!

Quoting JetBlueGuy2006 (Reply 190):
what does VLA stand for

Very Large Aircraft

[Edited 2007-09-29 06:23:32]
 
astuteman
Posts: 7113
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:03 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 191):
The dollar's weakness is sending EADS stock through the roof!

Hadn't spotted that. Where's Jacobin with his charts when you need him?  Smile

Regards
 
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BlueSky1976
Posts: 1890
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 5:22 pm

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 156):
With respect, I cannot see Cathay or Air India trying to compete on the same high volume routes as BA A380s using B748i. Its not going to happen. I expect to see at least CX ordering A380 by the middle of next year.

Well, the thing with Air India is that it doesn't necessarily compete with the "big boys" of the Kangaroo Route (BA, QF, SQ, CX), but rather with the "big boys" of the India - US via Europe route (and soon to be India - US nonstop without payload restrictions): CO, DL, EK and 9W. I can agree on the CX, that would mean that the "whoever wins the 77W/346 match will supply us with the 747 replacement" comment is in the trash bin. But with AI, I could imagine the eventual rise of overcapacity problem due to the massive number of flights between US and India, and them eventually not needing a piece of equipment falling into VLA cathegory. Add to that the large fleet of 787s on order, giving the operator engine commonality (I believe AI went with GENx, correct me if I'm wrong), which results in slightly lower maintenance costs as they stick to one engine manufacturer. I could be wrong, but in CX's case chance of A380 order is about 50/50, but with AI it is slim to none. They will go with 748i IMO.
The queen of the skies is dead.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:44 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 191):

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 175):
you mean $1.4287

The dollar's weakness is sending EADS stock through the roof!  biggrin 

...looking at these charts, maybe you meant Boeing's stock... Wink



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 192):
Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 191):
The dollar's weakness is sending EADS stock through the roof!

Hadn't spotted that. Where's Jacobin with his charts when you need him? Smile

....here you go... Smile

..this is a chart of a 1-day Euro/Dollar f/x (foreign exchange) rate...



...here is the chart of the Euro F/X Continuous Contract (futures)..this is where I got the $1.4827 value from.. Smile

"Up the Irons!"
 
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Stitch
Posts: 26904
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RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 11:13 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 191):
What killed the A380F is fuel burn.

And yet the A388F's fuel burn was significantly better then the 744F's, and still Boeing sold plenty of 744Fs to heavy-cargo operators before they launched the 748F and Airbus was unable to sell any A388Fs to heavy cargo operators in the same period.

Now, once the 747ADV program kicked off in 2004-2005, that might have been enough to stunt the A388F, but it did have a few years when the 744F was the only competition and you think it could have generated some interest and orders...

[Edited 2007-09-29 16:16:02]
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 11:32 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 32):
It was without question a HUGE blow to the project. I seriously doubt that the project now has any long term viability for pax aircraft. It may continue on for years as a freighter, but I dont know if Boieng will now even build the few that LH has ordered.

Huge blow? BA order a non-RR engined product? Who are you kidding.
 
StressGuy
Posts: 13
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 9:34 am

RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 12:33 am

Jacobin777,

You did indeed beat Glacote to the kernal of the matter; I just missed it. As always I enjoy reading your posts!!!
 
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seabosdca
Posts: 6591
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 1:04 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 168):
Whatever the aircraft, most of the majors (outside the USA at least - I've little knowledge of US carriers products) appear to be spending inordinately large amounts of money these days developing "premium economy" products that might "differentiate" them from competitors offerings (talking medium/long-haul specifically).

I personally feel it's a kick-back against LCC no-frills, by an ever-growing population group, who might not be able to afford business class, but certainly want, and can afford, a few creature comforts.

Astuteman, I agree completely with you here... I think the problem is that international J products have become so opulent (and space- and weight-inefficient) that they can no longer be sold at reasonable premium prices. Folks who just want a comfortable seat and a decent meal need an intermediate offering.

But I don't see why the A380 would automatically have better appeal to the premium economy market than the 748. The cabin of the 748 is more than wide enough to make an 8W or even 9W product very appealing. The upper deck of the 748, for that matter, is much bigger than that of the 744, and might be the perfect place to put an expanded 4W or 5W premium product. Both airplanes are big and majestic and will look cutting-edge on the inside. The difference between airlines will be seen in the seat, the food, the service, the cleanliness, and the IFE, not the airframe (at least not between these two birds).

Think about which you would fly: an NZ 748 or a QF A380. Different people may come to different answers, but (except among the A v. B nuts on this forum) the airframe will have nothing to do with those answers.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 1:20 am

Quoting StressGuy (Reply 197):
Jacobin777,

You did indeed beat Glacote to the kernal of the matter; I just missed it. As always I enjoy reading your posts!!!

...thanks for the words mate... thumbsup ... Smile
"Up the Irons!"

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