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Revelation
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BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:07 am

Fair use, from Flight Global:

Quote:
British Airways (BA) will take a decision on replacement of the remainder of its Boeing 747-400 fleet in 2008-09, following today’s long-awaited Airbus A380 and Boeing 787 order

This will give us something to talk about on a.net for the next 1-2 years!  biggrin 

Quote:
But BA is still working on the replacement of the remainder of its 747-400 fleet. It lists the candidate aircraft as the 787-10, 777-300ER and A350 XWB, but no mention is made of the 747-8.

Yes, the 747-8 is not mentioned.  Angry

Quote:
BA chief executive Willie Walsh says: "These aircraft set the gold standard when it comes to environmental performance in the key areas of CO2 emissions, local air quality and noise. They will contribute significantly to our target of improving fuel efficiency by 25% between 2005 and 2025."They are also much quieter than their predecessors, which is of vital importance at Heathrow. Both the A380 and 787 are rated as producing a quarter of the noise level of the 747-400."

Be prepared for A and B to be touting how quiet and efficient their aircraft are. It makes one think the 777-300ER is at a disadvantage, being a generation behind A350 and B787. It makes me think we may see an acceleration of the Y3 program.
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hloutweg
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:27 am

I don't think there's more chances for the 787-8i in BA's fleet. The next show down will be between A350-900 and A350-1000 vs. 777-300 and 787-10 which are the closes equivalents. I don't think that by the end of 2008 and early 2009, Boeing will have an edgy competitor to the A350-1000. The economics of the 773, and possibly also the 787-10, will be lower than than the A359 and 3510. The disadvantage to Airbus would be that with the current 787 order, the 787-10 and somewhat the 777 too will have the commonality advantage.
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 2:38 am

That's an interesting point.

If A350 delivers on its promises, I think it has a lot of potential to take the BA business, since it will be a generation newer than 777-300ER and presumably more quiet and fuel efficient. According to Walsh, those are the deciding criteria.

A350 will have commonality with A380 in terms of pilot training at least.

I think the 787-10 really lines up with the 777-200ER, and those planes aren't leaving BA's fleet for a long time.

The A350 may make a better gap filler between A380 and B777-200ER than would B777-300ER or B787-10.

I think we'll know a lot more about all the options in the 1-2 year time frame being quoted by BA.
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khobar
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:07 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 2):
A350 will have commonality with A380 in terms of pilot training at least.

Not sure this is still true given Airbus has decided to go with a whole new cockpit for the A350 rather than maintain the tie to the A380.
 
mptpa
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:07 am

Well, given the fact BA snubbed GE for RR powerplants, what is really the chance that BA would choose 777-300ER? Same argument goes for 747-8i as well. So I think the real contenders might be A350-900/1000 and B787-10/11 (when applicable).

What do you think?
 
hawkercamm
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:13 am

BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 (by Pilot21 Sep 27 2007 in Civil Aviation)
 
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:14 am

Quoting Khobar (Reply 3):
Not sure this is still true given Airbus has decided to go with a whole new cockpit for the A350 rather than maintain the tie to the A380.

I didn't realize this. So much for all those folks saying A380 technology would be used in many forthcoming Airbus products.

Quoting Mptpa (Reply 4):
Well, given the fact BA snubbed GE for RR powerplants, what is really the chance that BA would choose 777-300ER? Same argument goes for 747-8i as well. So I think the real contenders might be A350-900/1000 and B787-10/11 (when applicable).

Good point, but keep in mind that Boeing hasn't launched the B787-10, and has never mentioned doing a B787-11, despite all the speculation here on a.net.
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:17 am

Quoting HawkerCamm (Reply 5):
BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 (by Pilot21 Sep 27 2007 in Civil Aviation)

Thanks, HawkerCamm, but that thread is discussing the current decision, whereas this is discussing the next one.
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mptpa
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:19 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 6):

Given the fact that Bair has repeatedly said that -10 is matter when not if, I would think it is given that this variant will be launched "at an appropriate" time. Besides, BA seems to like aircraft that is flying, not promised. So being the 787 which would take to the air this year, they will be able to "see" and tire-kick instead of "promises". Plus, it may make sense to get -10 when they have 42 order/options on 787 for commonality. A380/350 basically has no commonality, and even the cockpit would be somewhat changed (although the training switchover might be not that great); but parts, maintenance (composite str/panels), etc.

It would be an interesting race....
 
AirbusA6
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:21 am

It's interesting that BA will make this decision before either the 787 or A380 actually enter service, and if they were to choose the 7810 or A350, they'd be ordering a plane several years from service, especially the A3510 - which raises the question of why they'd order so far ahead?
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caminito
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:19 am

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 9):
It's interesting that BA will make this decision before either the 787 or A380 actually enter service, and if they were to choose the 7810 or A350, they'd be ordering a plane several years from service, especially the A3510 - which raises the question of why they'd order so far ahead?



Quoting Revelation (Reply 6):
but keep in mind that Boeing hasn't launched the B787-10, and has never mentioned doing a B787-11, despite all the speculation here on a.net.



Quoting Mptpa (Reply 4):
Well, given the fact BA snubbed GE for RR powerplants, what is really the chance that BA would choose 777-300ER? Same argument goes for 747-8i as well. So I think the real contenders might be A350-900/1000 and B787-10/11 (when applicable).

What do you think?



Quoting Revelation (Reply 2):
The A350 may make a better gap filler between A380 and B777-200ER than would B777-300ER or B787-10.



Quoting Hloutweg (Reply 1):
The economics of the 773, and possibly also the 787-10, will be lower than than the A359 and 3510.

I think that this discussion is on the way to forget the main issue: this second order will cover the B744 replacing aircraft, of which only about 12 are already covered by the A380s, and these planes must be delivered timely

Further, there are several objective or IMO mistakes, as well as unsupported statements within the arguments of the posters, between them:

1) That BA does not want GE engines.
Not true, BA has bought 29 GE-powered B777-200ER
It is interesting that many of the posters arguing so, strongly deny that BA is willingly supporting other UK manufacturers by buying some A380.

2) That developing an B787-10X (10 or 11) has the same degree of technical and
economical difficulty degree as of the A350-1000[i]

Not so. Even if the B787-10X is still not launched, it is a derivative of a fully designed and near first flight basic model, whilst the basic model of the B787-1000 is still not fully designed. The task of Boeing is by far easier and quicker to achieve

3) [i]That the A350-1000 will have less noise and economics as the B787-10X

Where are the data supporting this?

4) That BA has plenty of time before issuing the second order.
See "time sequence" of B744 replacement

Detailing above:

Time sequence

1.1) BA has received 12 B744 between 6/1989 and June14/1990. In 2012-2013, when replaced by the A380, they will be 23 years old, which would be the maximal tolerable age accepted by BA
1.2) BA has received 18 B744 between June28/1990 and 4/1995. In order to be replaced before reaching 23 years, it must happen 2013-2018
1.3) BA has received 16 B744 between 1996 and 9/1998, to be replaced (latest) 2018-2020 (1.2 + 1.3 = 34 planes replaced with the 2nd order).

Delivery times
B773ER: 2-3 years
A380: 2015 EIS as offered by Airbus, meaningful quantities 2017 + 1 year compliance reserve = 2018
Reserve
B787-10X: Boeing could guarantee eventually 2015+1 year compliance reserve = 2016

Factually, BA will be forced to order 18(?) B773ER latest 2010.. If they want to go with the B787-10X, than latest first quarter 2008
No way that order as 1.2. could go to the A350-1000!
 
StressGuy
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:24 am

I absolutely agree with Revelation. I think that Boeing will move the Y3 ahead several years with an EIS between 2015-2016 an will start privately marketing it to the airlines in the next several years to slow A350 sales.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:49 am

I wouldn't be surprised that the Boeing Y3--which might end up looking like a 787 writ large--will be on offer by 2009. The Y3 could allow Rolls-Royce to offer an uprated Trent engine again, and the Y3 will have both GE and Rolls-Royce as risk-sharing partners. It would be highly desirable to British Airways, and that right there could short-circuit A350 orders since the Y3 would be perfect for British Airways' requirements to supplement (and eventually replace) the 777.
 
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:59 am

I think the 787-10 is gaining interest from airlines and doing so without requiring a wholesale update of the program. That being said, I still expect Boeing to be working on such an update.

That BA has already committed to the 787-8 and 787-9 as well as stating they are looking at the 787-10 (as well as whatever other models Boeing is considering for the family) gives Boeing a not insignificant benefit in the decision, already.

A350 supporters tend to dismiss the 787 because it's not an A350.  Smile A bit more...objective...review of the 787 and it's possible variants might put a little stutter in that swagger.  Smile

I'm starting to hear rumors BA is actually looking hard at the 77W. I remain skeptical, but I don't have a clue as to how BA Fleet Operations and Planning is running their numbers so I'm the one whizzing into the wind on a dark night. However, it does seem to be in BA's interests to operate fewer families if they can get close to the same overall performance. So a 787-10 almost as good as an A350-900 and a 787-11 almost as good as an A350-1000 might very well be better for BA, overall, then adding a third widebody family into the mix. After all, they have three widebody families now, and seem keen to reduce that to two.
 
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:13 am

They are replacing the olddest B 747-400s with 12-19 A 380s. Fair enough. These A 380s will be used either for expansion or the busiest routes.

When BA replaces their remaining B 747-400s I suppose they can/will order the B 747-8 to replace them

LH didn't mention the B 747-8 either in the past
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:57 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 2):
I think the 787-10 really lines up with the 777-200ER, and those planes aren't leaving BA's fleet for a long time.

It lines up in terms of payload and range, but ought to beat the fuel burn of the 777-200ER by something like ~18%. And fuel burn = $$$ and carbon emissions. (I'm talking about a 787-10 taking the current landing gear & wing to their limits, and not a re-winged growth version)

Quoting Khobar (Reply 3):
a whole new cockpit for the A350

The size of the displays changed. What else?

Quoting Caminito (Reply 10):
2) That developing an B787-10X (10 or 11) has the same degree of technical and
economical difficulty degree as of the A350-1000[i]
Not so. Even if the B787-10X is still not launched, it is a derivative of a fully designed and near first flight basic model, whilst the basic model of the B787-1000 is still not fully designed. The task of Boeing is by far easier and quicker to achieve

If Boeing have to develop a larger wing and triple-axle landing gear, then it will be considerably more expensive. The current wing and landing gear max out near 255000 kg, which is insufficient to build a triple-stretch 787-11.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
So a 787-10 almost as good as an A350-900 and a 787-11 almost as good as an A350-1000 might very well be better for BA, overall, then adding a third widebody family into the mix.

However, if one accounts for the evidence that BA no longer plans a 747-8I order, they will be left with a ~175 seat capacity gap in their fleet. The A350 design has room to be stretched one more time to a -1100 model using the existing wing and landing gear. I would place the likelihood of this happening at about the same level as a 787-11... Remote, but possible. It would close the capacity gap to ~135 seats between an A350-1100 and the A388, something the 787 family could not do.

I am very curious to see Boeing bust a move... will it be a revamped 777? A re-winged 787? A totally new Y3? Perhaps that's why British Airways are taking their sweet time. Pass the popcorn!  Big grin
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 12:21 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 15):
However, if one accounts for the evidence that BA no longer plans a 747-8I order, they will be left with a ~175 seat capacity gap in their fleet.

BA may not very well care, and they would not be alone in that feeling (SQ, QF, EK, AF, etc.).

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 15):
The A350 design has room to be stretched one more time to a -1100 model using the existing wing and landing gear.

So does the 787, with an 80m 787-12 matching an 80m A350-1100. If Boeing does launch a new wing and undercarriage for a 787-10HGW and 787-11, I am sure they would factor in a possible 787-12, as well. Of course, as with the A350-1100, a 787-12 would likely be the least-optimized member of the family.
 
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:00 pm

Quoting Caminito (Reply 10):
In 2012-2013, when replaced by the A380, they will be 23 years old, which would be the maximal tolerable age accepted by BA

Do you have any evidence to back this up ? BA have run 747's a good bit beyond 23 years in the past.
 
Gemuser
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:57 pm

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 9):
It's interesting that BA will make this decision before either the 787 or A380 actually enter service

???
The A380 will enter service in less than 4 weeks, its longer than that to 2008/09. See https://www.airliners.net/discussions...aviation/read.main/3614206/#menu76

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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:02 pm

Quoting Gemuser (Reply 18):
Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 9):
It's interesting that BA will make this decision before either the 787 or A380 actually enter service

???
The A380 will enter service in less than 4 weeks, its longer than that to 2008/09.

I believe he's talking about the BA dates (2010 for the 787 and 2012 for the A380)
 
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scbriml
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:34 pm

Quoting Caminito (Reply 10):

1) BA does have a strong preference for RR. Their last GE order was for one 772ER in August 1998. Since then, they've ordered 19 RR powered 772ER, 24 RR powered 787s and 12 RR powered A380s. All their A320 family orders have been powered by the engine with RR content. Looking back through BA's history of buying planes, when there has been a choice of engine, their overwhelming preference has been for RR power. All 747s after the -100 , all their 757s, all their 767s and even some of their 707s were RR powered.

The GE powered 777s in the fleet owe more to the deal that BA did with GE over engine maintenance than anything else.

2) Boeing seems to be as far away from defining a -10 as Airbus is from design freeze on the A350. Several airlines seem to want more from the -10 than Boeing, at least initially, seems prepared to offer. The type of -10 that many ailines want will require considerable additional developement. Boeing's not insignificant challenge in respect of the -10 (and -11 if it emerges), is that the GEnx engine will struggle to grow sufficiently to power HGW versions of the -10 and -11.

3) Bigger engines and bigger wings would suggest it should be quieter. Same as A380 vs 748i.

4) BA have said they are looking to place their next order in the 2008-2009 timeframe.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-long-haul-renewal-in-2008-09.html

Quoting Caminito (Reply 10):
In 2012-2013, when replaced by the A380, they will be 23 years old, which would be the maximal tolerable age accepted by BA

BA has no issues with operating planes for a long time. Many of BA's original 741s were in the fleet for over 28 years!

Quoting Caminito (Reply 10):
Factually, BA will be forced to order 18(?) B773ER latest 2010.. If they want to go with the B787-10X, than latest first quarter 2008

Not factual at all. This is your theory to fit in with your arbitrarily selected 23 year service life.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 10):
No way that order as 1.2. could go to the A350-1000!

Why not? If BA thinks the A350-900 and -1000 are the right planes for their fleet, they will buy them and operate their newer 744s until they can be delivered. Personally, I think they have a very good chance against a currently undefined 787-10 and a fantasy -11. We will see in the fullness of time.
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AF2323
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:13 pm

Quoting Khobar (Reply 3):
Airbus has decided to go with a whole new cockpit for the A350



Quoting Mptpa (Reply 8):
A380/350 basically has no commonality

Guys, they mainly changed the displays... it is not a "whole new" flight deck, there will still be commonality between the A380 and A350.

From the article "Flightdeck rethink heralds new A350 XWB design" in Flight International:

Quote:
After discussions with customers, we've decided to go away from the A380-sized cockpit displays and adopt larger displays," says A350 XWB chief engineer Gordon McConnell.



Quote:
The revised flightdeck retains traditional Airbus switching and features such as the non-back-driven thrust levers (when autothrust is engaged) and the A380's curser-control device and "QWERTY" pedestal-mounted keypad. However, the larger screens are similar to the Rockwell Collins displays that equip the 787's flightdeck.
 
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keesje
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:22 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 20):
4) BA have said they are looking to place their next order in the 2008-2009 timeframe.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles....html

I think before that period Lufthansa /Boeing will have taken a final go / no go decision on the 747-8i.

If BA ordered the -8i it would have been taken now.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
sbworcs
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:31 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 22):
I think before that period Lufthansa /Boeing will have taken a final go / no go decision on the 747-8i.

If BA ordered the -8i it would have been taken now.

I would have thought that they have decided to go ahead anyway considering the Cargo version is doing so well. Would they really cancel the passenger version if only LH order??
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:37 pm

Quoting Sbworcs (Reply 23):
Would they really cancel the passenger version if only LH order??

That's an interesting question. There are significant differences between the models in terms of where the stretch is located (in front of the wing for the 8F, further forward for the 8i), so it's not like the 8i is "free" because it's the same as the 8F.
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autothrust
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 7:04 pm

BA could be interested at the A350-900R for LHR-SYD. That could be a selling point.They could fill the gap with the A350 family and would have commonality to the A380.

Of course they could fill the gap also with the 787, but no model does have the range for the LHR-SYD route. It will be a very close competition. May the best win.
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 7:13 pm

Quoting AF2323 (Reply 21):

Quote:
The revised flightdeck retains traditional Airbus switching and features such as the non-back-driven thrust levers (when autothrust is engaged) and the A380's curser-control device and "QWERTY" pedestal-mounted keypad. However, the larger screens are similar to the Rockwell Collins displays that equip the 787's flightdeck.

QWERTY and not AZERTY? the final proof that Airbus is not really run by the French after all Big grin
 
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keesje
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 7:24 pm

Quoting AutoThrust (Reply 25):
BA could be interested at the A350-900R for LHR-SYD. That could be a selling point.They could fill the gap with the A350 family and would have commonality to the A380.

Of course they could fill the gap also with the 787, but no model does have the range for the LHR-SYD route. It will be a very close competition. May the best win.

I think the a350-800 can be excluded from future BA aquisition because the 787-9 has been ordered. So interest would be mainly for the XWB-900 and -1000. I think it is becoming clear this -1000 will outdo the 7773ER significantly is fuel effieciency, noise etc, so that won't be much of fight http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...B773ER_comparison.jpg?t=1190974716 (except if BA badly needs 300 seats before 2014..)

Orders have to be made before 2009 and I doubt Boeing will able to come up with something inbetween 787-10 and A380 in that time frame. BA expressed interest in the A350-900R and A350-1000 which would be almost the same aircraft (similar to 772LR and 773ER).

A fleet of 787-8/9, A359R/10 and A380-8/900 long term would offer a lot of flexibility & limit diversity at the same time.
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Revelation
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:18 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 20):
Boeing seems to be as far away from defining a -10 as Airbus is from design freeze on the A350.

I see your point but perhaps you are stretching that a bit too far.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 20):
Several airlines seem to want more from the -10 than Boeing, at least initially, seems prepared to offer. The type of -10 that many ailines want will require considerable additional developement. Boeing's not insignificant challenge in respect of the -10 (and -11 if it emerges), is that the GEnx engine will struggle to grow sufficiently to power HGW versions of the -10 and -11.

Good points. It'll be interesting to see how it turns out. I do think if they go beyond the current plan of record for the -10 (i.e. strectched fuse on same wings and gear) it will be costly and time consuming. I think by going to a new wing optimized to the task they may perhaps not stretch the GENx beyond its capacity, but we shall see.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 20):
BA has no issues with operating planes for a long time. Many of BA's original 741s were in the fleet for over 28 years!

Yes, I think we are making too much of presumed retirement dates. The airlines show they are willing to stretch out the lifetime of an aircraft if no suitable replacement is on the market, or if they see a very good replacement coming down the line in the near future.

Quoting AF2323 (Reply 21):
The revised flightdeck retains traditional Airbus switching and features

I hope they fix the problem with people accidentally setting the parking brake in flight!

Quoting Keesje (Reply 22):
I think before that period Lufthansa /Boeing will have taken a final go / no go decision on the 747-8i.

Keesje, it's only you presuming there is such a decision to be made. Boeing has signed contracts from LH and others for the 747-8i. It will be built. Period.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 27):
I think the a350-800 can be excluded from future BA aquisition because the 787-9 has been ordered. So interest would be mainly for the XWB-900 and -1000. I think it is becoming clear this -1000 will outdo the 7773ER significantly is fuel effieciency, noise etc, so that won't be much of fight

I think there's too many unknowns with regard to the largest members of the A350 family for BA to be comfortable ordering it in the time frame we're talking about.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 27):
Orders have to be made before 2009 and I doubt Boeing will able to come up with something inbetween 787-10 and A380 in that time frame.

I think Boeing coud easily come up with a 787-based proposal in the time frame we are talking about. I'm pretty confident that all the numbers needed to analyze the various -10 and -11 proposals are being cranked as we speak. I'm sure the proposal would be at least as credible, if not more credible than the proposed larger members of the A350 family, because the 787 proposal will be based on extending a plane that will already be in service next year, whereas the A350 has got another six years to go before the first model goes into service.

If Boeing feels the need to go the Y3 route, and can make a compelling case for it, and if BA is not all that happy with a stretched 787 or A350, I can see BA postponing the decision till the Y3 is launched.
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Gemuser
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:21 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 19):
Quoting Gemuser (Reply 18):Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 9):It's interesting that BA will make this decision before either the 787 or A380 actually enter service???The A380 will enter service in less than 4 weeks, its longer than that to 2008/09.I believe he's talking about the BA dates (2010 for the 787 and 2012 for the A380)

Well even if that what he ment, does he really think BA won't have all the operational, in service data it wants by the end of 08/early 09?

Hint: QF takes delivery of theirs in 08. QF/BA have been exchanging such data for over 70 years! You think its stopped? They can also probabley also get a fair amount of data from SQ. You think BA/QF/SQ/MH/AI/SA/NZ/AC don't exchange technical data?

Gemuser
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jacobin777
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:38 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 27):
I think the a350-800 can be excluded from future BA aquisition because the 787-9 has been ordered. So interest would be mainly for the XWB-900 and -1000. I think it is becoming clear this -1000 will outdo the 7773ER significantly is fuel effieciency, noise etc, so that won't be much of fight

..your forgetting something friend....Boeing could take a page from Airbus book...i.e-with the A350-10 not coming online (for BA atleast) until 2015-2016, Boeing could offer BA the B773ER by 2009/2010 at a much discount price....that would give them 5-6 years of using the B773ER...by then, costs for the B773ER are low enough that it might not warrant BA to "upgrade" to the A350-1000....
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keesje
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:50 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 28):
Keesje, it's only you presuming there is such a decision to be made. Boeing has signed contracts from LH and others for the 747-8i. It will be built. Period.

Not to long ago LH bought a large fleet of regionals. when it didn't go well (before first flight) they cancelled. As discussed in another thread I'm sure Lufthansa has covered itself for the risk of becoming the sole operator. What would be the resale value / support costs? It isn't a 747-8F with seats as many conveniently assume..

High potentials British Airways, Qantas and Singapore explictly skipping the 747-8i and other long time loyal Boeing (747) customers like JAl, Korean, NW, UA and KLM not ordering during the current boom period / A380 delays is certainly ringing bells in Chicago / Frankfurt.

I know it's not wise to say it here but:

I have seen few indications / quotes / presentations to suggest the 747-8i ever had a real chance with BA other then for benchmarking / negotiating. And I'm afraid BA isn't the only carrier.

It's not pleasant to conclude because we all love the 747 but the 747 is dissappearing rapidly from the passenger front and the writing on its future is on the wall. Boeing testing the market for an Y3 will seal it's destiny.

Boeing might have better things to do also (787-10/11, 737 replacement, Y3) etc then developing / building / supporting 20 odd B747-8i 's.

[Edited 2007-09-28 14:59:38]
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william
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:22 pm

Good post Keejse.............alot of truth in there.
 
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Revelation
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:27 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 31):
Not to long ago LH bought a large fleet of regionals. when it didn't go well (before first flight) they cancelled. As discussed in another thread I'm sure Lufthansa has covered itself for the risk of becoming the sole operator. What would be the resale value / support costs? It isn't a 747-8F with seats as many conveniently assume..

LH seems to be willing to stick its neck out on A340-600, which certainly is a dying breed and has a raft of one-off parts. It doesn't even have an after-life as a cargo plane at this point in time. They'll have 24 of that bird, remarkably similar to the number of 747-8is they've ordered.

I'm not sure which regional fleet you are talking about, but somehow I don't think any regional aircraft and vendor is comparable to Boeing and the 747. The corporation is one of the titans of industry, and the aircraft has over 1400 predecessors. Service, support and future conversions are not an issue.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 31):
Boeing might have better things to do also (787-10/11, 737 replacement, Y3) etc then developing / building / supporting 20 odd B747-8i 's.

So, what is specific to the passenger model? Only the front fuse extension (its at the hump whereas the freigher is after the hump) and the upgraded interior relative to the 747. Seems the profit from 25 sales and the profit from the support phase should easily cover this.

I don't know why you want to keep trying to create doubt about the future of 747-8i, but you just don't have any factual evidence that supports your point of view.
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Boogyjay
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:28 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 27):
A fleet of 787-8/9, A359R/10 and A380-8/900 long term would offer a lot of flexibility & limit diversity at the same time.

 checkmark 
That's also how I see it today :
787-8/-9 for medium capacity short and long haul (As Walsh said, it's a versatile aircraft)
A359R/10 for high capacity long haul, opens up LHR-SYD, A359 replaces B777s, A350-10 replaces some B777s and B744s.
A380s for trunk routes obviously.

Now, the ball is in Boeing's court IMO. If Boeing can pull a capable 787-10/-11 out of its hat, with a bigger wing and new LG before BA's next order decision, then only I can see maybe BA not ordering the A350. However, Boeing sits on the fence because as Revelation rightly points out, for this 'upgraded' B787s to happen, they need GE to make the GenX significantly grow and that hands Airbus the must needed A350-rated GenX on a silver platter, making the A350 automatically more appealing on the market place.
I think that's what we'll witness in the next 1-2 years. I don't see Boeing bringing Y3 before BA's next order.

IMO, BA's next order will be more A380s, more B789s. And the big battle will be between the B787HGW (-10/-11) and the A350.
 
columba
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:30 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 33):
I'm not sure which regional fleet you are talking about,

I guess he means the Fairchild Dornier 728.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:33 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 20):
Boeing's not insignificant challenge in respect of the -10 (and -11 if it emerges), is that the GEnx engine will struggle to grow sufficiently to power HGW versions of the -10 and -11.

It would be interesting to see if RR becomes the sole supplier for the 787HGW family because the Trent XWB can do the job now. A 230t 787-10 with current GE and RR power would still be a heck of a plane, but considering that the A345/A346/77L/77W combined fleet will likely top out at around 750 sales, it might be a case where RR, already "exclusive" on the A350, decides to do the same on the 787HGW, and ante's up some of the development costs for that plane to adapt it for Trent XWB power (since the 787HGW will need to sit higher off the ground for nacelle clearance). That way, RR has a more secure RoI.

I think GE might end up being okay with it, since they'll still sell 77L/77W/77F models along with 748s and the non-HGW 787 line and they save billions in development costs only to get into a price war with RR which will hurt their RoI, as well.
 
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keesje
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:41 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 33):
LH seems to be willing to stick its neck out on A340-600, which certainly is a dying breed and has a raft of one-off parts. It doesn't even have an after-life as a cargo plane at this point in time. They'll have 24 of that bird, remarkably similar to the number of 747-8is they've ordered.

A string of A340-500 / -600 operators? VS, IB, EK, SQ, QR, Thai, China Eastern, SAA, ..

Quoting Revelation (Reply 33):
So, what is specific to the passenger model? Only the front fuse extension (its at the hump whereas the freigher is after the hump) and the upgraded interior relative to the 747. Seems the profit from 25 sales and the profit from the support phase should easily cover this.

Given Lufthansa paid a high price for launching the 747-8i, which a risky assumption IMO..

About the new interiors / galleys / IFE / wiring / Airco / toilets / evacuation / etc.. Boeing (787) and Airbus (A380) would not underestimate those at this moment in time..  Sad
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:51 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 35):
I guess he means the Fairchild Dornier 728.

If so, his argument is even weaker than I thought. The 728 was a nice plane, but from day one the plane and the company building it were in a life and death struggle, which unfortunately was lost.

The 25 LH 747-8is will share the support network with the 65 747-8Fs on order and the 1400 747s that preceeded it. Many cargo operators out-source maintenance, so it's pretty clear that LH Technik will be plenty busy with 748-8 business.

Sorry, Keesje, but you have egg on your face...
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keesje
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:00 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 38):

Sorry, Keesje, but you have egg on your face...

I think it is sad some members still have to fall back to childish personal atacks when arguments are being proven wrong / irrelevant (reply 33).
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:50 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 37):
A string of A340-500 / -600 operators? VS, IB, EK, SQ, QR, Thai, China Eastern, SAA, ..

You are butressing my argument by saying that the other aircraft family members are part of the support pool for the aircraft. You can't say the A350-600 is a part of a big family while the 787-8i is an orphan.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 37):
Given Lufthansa paid a high price for launching the 747-8i, which a risky assumption IMO..

If there was any shred of evidence that Boeing is selling 747s at a loss, it would be a part of the EU's WTO complaint, as dumping is a known to be against the law. Otherwise, let's assume that Boeing's deal with LH is profitable, ok? If you want to persue this line, we could talk about how the Times of London is saying that BA's A380s are being sold at 50% off list, for a program that is deeply in the red.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 37):
About the new interiors / galleys / IFE / wiring / Airco / toilets / evacuation / etc.. Boeing (787) and Airbus (A380) would not underestimate those at this moment in time..

Airbus has had its issues with wiring. I think the fasteners for 747-8i are not going to be an issue. Do you have any evidence of any real problems, or are you just doing your best to spread doubts?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 39):
I think it is sad some members still have to fall back to childish personal atacks when arguments are being proven wrong / irrelevant (reply 33).

That might be the case if any of the arguments were being proven wrong, but they are not.

Hopefully reply 30 from William cheered you up.

Now can you explain to us the relevance of the analogy between the Farchild/Dornier 728 and the Boeing 747-8i a bit more, perhaps?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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caminito
Posts: 115
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:55 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 20):
Not factual at all. This is your theory to fit in with your arbitrarily selected 23 year service life



Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 17):
Quoting Caminito (Reply 10):
In 2012-2013, when replaced by the A380, they will be 23 years old, which would be the maximal tolerable age accepted by BA

Do you have any evidence to back this up ? BA have run 747's a good bit beyond 23 years in the past.

Such extrapolation of the past regarding the B741/2 life span is totally inadequate!
At these times, the only substitute available was the B744 which fuel burn was lower, but nothing so spectacular as the present improvements and even much more important, the oil prices were a fraction of today's (the situation will probably be even worse in the future).

Are the A380 supporters not repeating all the time it will kill the B777-300ER, because of the far better oil burn of the A350 (valid also for the B787)?!
And this is much more extreme referring to the B744!
Therefore, do you think that BA could afford to operate B744s 2018-2020?

And the 23 years are certainly not arbitrary !! As Evidence: By accepting to replace the first 12 frames by A380, BA has indicated their criteria, even if, IMO, by the same reasons stated above, they will probably not even wait so long!

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 15):
If Boeing have to develop a larger wing and triple-axle landing gear, then it will be considerably more expensive. The current wing and landing gear max out near 255000 kg, which is insufficient to build a triple-stretch 787-11.

Even if I defer to your superior technical knowledge regarding to what they would need to do, are these tasks not far easier than develop the A350-1000 and more important, the basic model A350-900, from its presently still partially undefined and subject to continuous major changes, purely pre-production stage? (I do not wish to use the word "paper"!)

I must repeat, IMHO, that due to the lateness of the A350-1000 and the risk to order such a preliminary stage model, its only chance would be that the B778 before or during its first flight does show basic deficiencies and even so, in such case BA, probably concerned in running at similar problems with the A350-1000, would go, again probably, with the B777-300ER or an upgrade of such.
 
express1
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:06 am

i'm sticking to the B787s and the B777-300ERs for the next batch of orders and i will admit i'm wrong if the order is diffrent when the announcement will be made in 2008/9.

dave
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RIX
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:19 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 20):
A350-900 and -1000... have a very good chance against a currently undefined 787-10 and a fantasy -11.

- but will be far from so good against real 787-10 and -11. Which, as funny it is, may very well become real before either of 350s (which, BTW, is still quite a "fantasy" itself).

Quoting Keesje (Reply 27):
A fleet of 787-8/9, A359R/10 and A380-8/900 long term would offer a lot of flexibility & limit diversity at the same time.

Good point, but even more so if those 350 - thingies are of same type as already ordered 787. That is, with offering or not larger 787 versions, in a great extent it's Boeing's to lose.

Quoting BoogyJay (Reply 34):
IMO, BA's next order will be more A380s, more B789s. And the big battle will be between the B787HGW (-10/-11) and the A350.

- hard to disagree. But then, they don't mention 380 in a list of what they consider as replacement of remaining 747s ...  Wink

Quoting Caminito (Reply 41):
are these tasks [new wing/.../... for larger 787] not far easier than develop the A350-1000 and more important, the basic model A350-900, from its presently still partially undefined and subject to continuous major changes, purely pre-production stage? (I do not wish to use the word "paper"!)

 checkmark   checkmark   checkmark  How come 35A is "more given" than larger 787? There is no such a thing as A350 at all yet!
 
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scbriml
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:40 am

Quoting RIX (Reply 43):
350s (which, BTW, is still quite a "fantasy" itself)

Real enough that the A350-900 and -1000 have more sales than the 787-10 and -11. wink 

Quoting RIX (Reply 43):
There is no such a thing as A350 at all yet!

But enough of one for airlines to buy. yes 
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hloutweg
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:56 am

Quoting RIX (Reply 43):
But then, they don't mention 380 in a list of what they consider as replacement of remaining 747s

With seven options in order, I doubt at this point they'll be talking about more A380s. It's crystal clear that the A350 and the 787 will replace these las 747s for a couple added frequencies.
In Varietate Concordia
 
r2rho
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:04 am

I was surprised not to see any 748's in their order... that's very bad news for the 748. If BA, with 57 744s, doesn't buy them, I'd be very worried if I were Boeing.

BA have shown an intelligent strategy here: the A380 is a MUST for BA in Heathrow, and the 787's fit in nicely into their fleet (with what delivery dates, I wonder?). So they secure those for now, and wait for Airbus to freeze the A350 and Boeing to decide on a 787-10 before making their next big order. Their 777s will do fine for years to come so there is no point in making a hasty decision on this.

I consider the 787-10 a done thing, only that Boeing won't launch it to avoid hurting their 777 sales and will wait for Airbus to freeze the A350 in order to counter it directly. But rest assured, the 787-10 will come when Boeing considers it's the right moment for it. As for the 787-11, I consider it unlikely, it's a stretch too far in my opinion, but if a Y3 takes too long it may be necessary as an interim solution.

Of course, according to many here at airliners.net, it's just a matter of time before we see a 787-15... Big grin

So BA's next decision will pit the 787-10 against the A359... and the question will be how to fill the gap between that and the A380. A351s? still one last chance for 748s?
 
r2rho
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:06 am

Quoting Kiwiandrew (Reply 26):
QWERTY and not AZERTY? the final proof that Airbus is not really run by the French after all

Please don't tell me there have been aircraft released with an AZERTY keyboard in the past. Please tell me that is not true.  no 
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:18 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 44):
Real enough that the A350-900 and -1000 have more sales than the 787-10 and -11.  Wink

Considering how many 787-8s and 787-9s Boeing has sold, the A350's sales lead might not last long against the cumulative initial launch orders for the 787-10 and 787-11 once they are formally offered for sale... Big grin
 
bmacleod
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RE: BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:18 am

Quoting Hloutweg (Reply 1):
I don't think there's more chances for the 787-8i in BA's fleet.

Just what is the 787-8i?

My opinion, if the 747-8i was offered in RR engines, BA would've grabbed 12-14 of them.
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