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moo
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BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 6:48 pm

An interesting Flight Global article on the next BA wide body order throws up some intriguing quotes:

Quote:

"The A350-1000 wasn't sufficiently defined for us to be confident to order the aircraft," he says. "We also wanted more certainty about what Boeing's response will be."

and

Quote:

While the A350-1000 is the main focus of the Airbus offering for the next campaign, it will also include the A350-900, says Boyle. From the Boeing stable, he expects candidates to range from "evolutions of the 777-300ER to something more radically new, as well as the 787-10".

Emphasis mine.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...e-ba-long-haul-orders-to-come.html

This part of the sentence can be read in two different ways - it could simply apply to the 777 evolution, or as I read it at first it could apply to a new aircraft altogether.

So, is BA expecting Boeing to put forward Y3 for this tender? Even if its just generalised performance figures rather than a detailed offering, it could be enough to tempt BA to put off the order a few years maybe?
 
columba
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 6:51 pm

Which means for me that they don´t really are interested in the 77W as it is offered today.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
PEET7G
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 7:03 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 1):
Which means for me that they don´t really are interested in the 77W as it is offered today.

 checkmark  Well, pretty much that is the only thing I can read out of this for sure... however to me this could be read as they are waiting for an offer that will include the 787-10 and something brand new ranging from those 787-10s to the A380s they ordered and bingo, that should be a Y3  pray 
What a gr8 thing that could be, covering their entire long-haul needs with just 3 aircraft families.
Peet7G
 
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Heavierthanair
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 7:07 pm

G'day

Quoting Moo (Thread starter):
The A350-1000 wasn't sufficiently defined

While the A350-1000 may not be sufficiently defined that would apply even more to any of the Boeing evolutions mentioned i.e. the 777-300ER "Advanced", something more radically new, as well as the 787-10.


Just my $ 0.02  Big grin

Cheers

Peter
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." (Albert Einstein, 1879 - 1955)
 
columba
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 7:20 pm

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 2):
Well, pretty much that is the only thing I can read out of this for sure... however to me this could be read as they are waiting for an offer that will include the 787-10 and something brand new ranging from those 787-10s to the A380s they ordered and bingo, that should be a Y3 pray
What a gr8 thing that could be, covering their entire long-haul needs with just 3 aircraft families.

...and I guess they are not alone with that. LH and EK wanted to place orders for the 787/A350 already but they haven´t.
Looks for me they are waiting on a 787-10ER and maybe a 77W replacement that will compete with the A350-1000 but offers commonality with the 787.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
Burkhard
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 7:55 pm

I read from this that there will be no larger decision on replacements of late 744 and 772 at BA within the next three years, and we can continue to start one thread per day on this topic. Yes, once they have their A380, 788,789 delivered , they will get either more 789 and A380, or 7810 if this gets built or 359 or 3510 or something called Y3, unless they no longer exist...

There seems to be wide agreement they will not go for Ilyushins 96 - this I read from 10000 posts here.
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 8:02 pm

Well, gentleman - you've heard it from the horse's mouth. Say hello to the first Y3 launch customer: British Airways.

Edit: on a second thought - if BA goes for it, I would not be surprised if UA and NW followed in the split second. All of the sudden with Y1 being on the mercy of engine manufacturers, the unimaginable thought of Y3 comming ahead of Y1 seems far more plausible...

[Edited 2007-10-02 13:06:30]
The queen of the skies is dead.
 
gh123
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 8:19 pm

Sorry but what is Y3?
 
slz396
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 8:25 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 5):
I read from this that there will be no larger decision on replacements of late 744 and 772 at BA within the next three years, and we can continue to start one thread per day on this topic. Yes, once they have their A380, 788,789 delivered , they will get either more 789 and A380, or 7810 if this gets built or 359 or 3510 or something called Y3, unless they no longer exist...

There seems to be wide agreement they will not go for Ilyushins 96 - this I read from 10,000 posts here.

ROTFL

Indeed, with both the A380 and 787 ordered as replacement to the early 747s and 767s respectively, BA are in no rush to order the replacement aircraft for the rest of their current long haul fleet.

One thing for sure is they will not order the 748i and as time goes by, it looks increasingly unlikely they will order the 77W as well.

Conclusion: they will order something completely NEW.

With the 787-10 not living up to the expectations, the A350 does have the best cards right now, but it is deemed not defined enough to already commit to it. Besides, since BA isn't planning on ordering now, they have decided to keep an eye on what others may come up with in the mean time which is even better just in case. Obviously it begs the question if any other plane (should there ever be one in time) would be considered well-enough defined by the time BA are ready to order.

I don't think BA themselves believes too much in a Y3 before end of next decade either, because mind you, they have just ordered 12 A380s set for delivery only a few years before...

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 6):
with Y1 being on the mercy of engine manufacturers, the unimaginable thought of Y3 coming ahead of Y1 seems far more plausible...

Nope, because Y3 will need an all new engine too you know.
The only chance for a Y3 design to have enough market to make the investment worth is if it is put well above the 787 market and thus outgrow even the A350-1000, hence it will need an all new engine of itself.
Otherwise, Y3 will just be a costly alternative to the 787-10ER and I don't think that would make a lot of sense really. Better just re-wing and re-gear the 787 then.
 
Carls
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 8:38 pm

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 3):

Absolutely right. If the A350-1000 wasn't sufficiently defined for them to be confident to order the aircraft how come they will order something that do not have any data, actually at this time that Y3 do not exist at all. So this article is telling me that they won't order more 777 and will wait until Airbus get the 351 already defined to make a decision competing with 787-10.

An order of A350-900 and 1000 is just matter of time. It is the best option in it category and will share with their A380 some commonality. And will be the fifth airline flying the 787 / 350 combo.
 
FlyingAY
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 8:48 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Nope, because Y3 will need an all new engine too you know.

GE stated that they want return for their investment in 773ER engines and thus are hesitant or not willing to get involved with the newer and bigger A350 (than previous A350 iteration). A350XWB however is still several years away, so GE expects the 777 to sell still very well during the next few years. Wouldn't the same reasoning apply for GE developing a whole new engine for Y3?
 
Leskova
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 8:50 pm

Quoting Moo (Thread starter):
This part of the sentence can be read in two different ways - it could simply apply to the 777 evolution, or as I read it at first it could apply to a new aircraft altogether.

I think that's stretching imagination to far beyond the breaking-point...  Wink ... as others have noted, if the A350-1000 isn't defined enough for them, how could Y3 be defined enough?
Smile - it confuses people!
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 9:00 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
With the 787-10 not living up to the expectations,

I am not sure that you mean this statement to read the way it does. The 787-10 is not an in service aircraft so there are no expectations for it to live up to. Boeing has thus far declined to define what it will be; however some of the technically competent A.netters of which there are precious few, have extrapolated from existing defined versions of what they think it will be based on certain parameters. This is as far as it goes right now.
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 9:18 pm

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 3):
While the A350-1000 may not be sufficiently defined that would apply even more to any of the Boeing evolutions mentioned i.e. the 777-300ER "Advanced", something more radically new, as well as the 787-10.

Which is why we are not seeing any serious movement by the world's airlines on either the A350 or the 787HGW. Airbus has made the first move by "guaranteeing" the A350 will do "X", but continue to try and make it not only meet those "guarantees" but improve on them. Meanwhile, Boeing's focus right now is to get the 787-8 and 787-9 out the door as well as prepare to build over 1000 of them, but they to no doubt continue to refine their own internal studies to ensure it remains competitive with the A350 as the latter's data changes.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
With the 787-10 not living up to the expectations...

This mantra is continuously tossed around by Airbus Aficionados, but I have yet to see an airline come out in public and say "Boeing has offered us a 787-10 and we told them it is unacceptable". All we have heard is EK and QF saying they want a 787-10 that can do "X".

Heck, that BA and EK and QF have yet to commit to the A350 must mean that it, too, is not "living up to expectations". And the A350-1000 is certainly not "living up to expectations" since no A350 customer other then QR has ordered it, and they only took a score. Even the PoS 747-8I could do that.  Yeah sure

Give Airbus and Boeing some time, people... I think you'll all be pleased with what they come up with.

Quoting Gh123 (Reply 7):
Sorry but what is Y3?

Yellowstone 3 - a Boeing codename to replace the 777 and 747 families. Yellowstone 2 became the 787 and Yellowstone 1 will (likely) replace the 737 and 757.
 
gh123
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 9:41 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
Yellowstone 3 - a Boeing codename to replace the 777 and 747 families. Yellowstone 2 became the 787 and Yellowstone 1 will (likely) replace the 737 and 757.

Thank you - much appreciated.
 
mutu
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 9:49 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 5):

I had understood that the next order in 2009 is purely the remaining 744 and expansion, and nothing to do with 772 replacement which in the main wont start until 2017 -2020 all other things being equal.
 
parapente
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Tue Oct 02, 2007 10:31 pm

BA seem clear (at present at least) that they have ordered their V large aircraft replacement. One assumes that (plus the options) that will be it. This is very understandable. So there is a need to replace 30 odd 744's. Looking at their 787 order and the real truth about fragmentation one is probably looking less than one for one -although BA does see continued capacity growth. They have ruled out the 773er and 748i. Clearly no 772 sized aircraft can replace that capacity gap.

So at present the 351 is the only game in town. The 781 can never be that aircraft. It would have to be an -11. This would require as the "experts" have stated a new wing,box section and undercarage - and engine? - yet it will still be narrower than the XWB. This makes no sense. They will have also learnt from the BA A380 order (and everyone else except LH -for the present) that warming over (by then) an old design (773) against a brand new aircraft does not work.

So as stated above "hello Y3". But (rock and hard place) they cannot go public on that as it would harm existing 773er sales. I guess the question is. After such a fabulous run of sales of the 773er and the early demise of the 346 -does it matter? The 773 is the only game in town if you want something in the near future (like the A330 is at present in mid size)).Just as the A351 is at present in the distant future.

I believe it will be the Y3- BWB, a twin at around 400 pax. No doubt we will see when they are ready.
 
RIX
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 12:08 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 1):
Which means for me that they don´t really are interested in the 77W as it is offered today.

- for me too. It's either upgraded 773, or something mysteriously defined as "more radically new", or 787-10 - either as is or HGW, or both. Plus, of course, "sufficiently defined" 350-900/1000.

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 3):
While the A350-1000 may not be sufficiently defined that would apply even more to any of the Boeing evolutions mentioned i.e. the 777-300ER "Advanced", something more radically new, as well as the 787-10.

- yep, and it looks to be OK for BA to wait until all of them are ready.

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 2):
covering their entire long-haul needs with just 3 aircraft families



Quoting Burkhard (Reply 5):
there will be no larger decision on replacements of late 744 and 772 at BA

- it's 4 aircraft (if they order another new type, be it 350 or Y3, 3 otherwise)! And there is no pending order to replace 777s! 777 is a part of BA fleet, and a huge one, after all is done! These are remaining 747s that are going to be substituted, together with all 767s and "initial" 747s, not 777s!  Smile (Well, technically this is what Burkhard says, "no 772 replacement", but as some change to what we've heard before - nope, it's not a change!)  Smile

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
With the 787-10 not living up to the expectations, the A350 does have the best cards right now

- we don't know what BA expects and what 787-10 (on existing platform, not HGW) is going to be. What if they were thinking about 787-10/777-300 combo, assuming 787-10 is good enough if not perfect for most of their needs, and then it's OK to get 773s, common to existing large fleet of 772s, rather than to introduce yet another new type for the same seat range (something that would not be the case with Y3)?

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
since BA isn't planning on ordering now, they have decided to keep an eye on what others may come up with in the mean time which is even better just in case.

- agree completely if the assumption ("BA isn't planning on ordering now" - that is, round 2 may be postponed beyond 2008/9) is true, and "773, 350 or 787-10" list is no longer valid.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
I don't think BA themselves believes too much in a Y3 before end of next decade either, because mind you, they have just ordered 12 A380s set for delivery only a few years before...

- why, Y3 is definitely even less competitor to 380 than 748 (which is not either), and Y3 by 2020 may be realistic.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
The only chance for a Y3 design to have enough market to make the investment worth is if it is put well above the 787 market and thus outgrow even the A350-1000, hence it will need an all new engine of itself.
Otherwise, Y3 will just be a costly alternative to the 787-10ER and I don't think that would make a lot of sense really. Better just re-wing and re-gear the 787 then.

 checkmark   checkmark   checkmark  - i don't see sufficient market for a reasonably sized Y3 (not a direct replacement of 773, of course, that would be a waste).

Quoting Carls (Reply 9):
wait until Airbus get the 351 already defined to make a decision competing with 787-10.

- they'll wait until definition of larger 787 too, won't they?  Smile

Quoting Carls (Reply 9):
order of A350-900 and 1000 is just matter of time. It is the best option in it category and will share with their A380 some commonality.

- what is the best right now, may be "not so best" half a year later. And Boeing has much more time than half a year to counter 350 that is not even built. Or even the one that is already frozen. Looks like BA is ready to wait... As for commonality - like I said above, it's a new type, so it will make sense for BA only if it fits absolutely perfectly to their strategy.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
Heck, that BA and EK and QF have yet to commit to the A350 must mean that it, too, is not "living up to expectations". And the A350-1000 is certainly not "living up to expectations" since no A350 customer other then QR has ordered it, and they only took a score. Even the PoS 747-8I could do that.

 checkmark   Wink

Quoting Parapente (Reply 16):
The 781 can never be that aircraft. It would have to be an -11.

- how do you know? Where can we get specifications of these -10 and -11 to make our own conclusions?  Smile

Quoting Parapente (Reply 16):
it will still be narrower than the XWB. This makes no sense.

- 0.3 inches per seat? Makes no sense, man, indeed  Smile!
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 12:32 am

Quoting Parapente (Reply 16):
So at present the 351 is the only game in town. The 781 can never be that aircraft. It would have to be an -11. This would require as the "experts" have stated a new wing,box section and undercarage - and engine? - yet it will still be narrower than the XWB. This makes no sense.

What really makes no sense is Airbus making the XWB 9-abreast and not 10 at 17" seating. If they had gone with a 777's width, they could have offered an inch wider seat at 9-abreast or equal seating at 10-abreast. That really would have cramped the 787's style and likely forced Boeing to launch Y3 in two models, one a bit larger then the 777-200 family and the other a bit larger then the 777-300 family.

Instead, by only matching the 787 and offering a bit more shoulder room, they have allowed Boeing to compete with an improved 787 which entails a great deal less risk in terms of time and money not only to Boeing, but the suppliers, as well. It improves the projected RoI across the board, which makes it much more appealing to those suppliers.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:00 am

Maybe I'm not imaginative enough but I really can't imagine how putting a new wingbox and triple bogies on a 787 is that much more of a stretch than the 350 going from the -800 to the -1000.

Boeing and Airbus are going to end up with the wide bodied version of the 737/320 situation happening now. Over the next 5 or so years, they will have similar planes of similar materials, similar size offering similar performance over a similar product range.

What ever the 350 will do, the 787 will be able to do...and visa versa. Anyone who thinks that one will be waaaayyyyyy better than the other, for planes of similar size, should get a new crack dealer.
What the...?
 
ebj1248650
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:09 am

Quoting Moo (Thread starter):
While the A350-1000 is the main focus of the Airbus offering for the next campaign, it will also include the A350-900, says Boyle. From the Boeing stable, he expects candidates to range from "evolutions of the 777-300ER to something more radically new, as well as the 787-10

Might this be interpreted as BA attempting to urge Boeing to get started on the Y3? And can we expect other airlines, those that should have been prime 748i candidates, to jump on that band wagon? Might be the Y3 is needed sooner than the Y1?
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
slz396
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:23 am

Some pieces of information from the article which so far have remained undiscussed:

1- BA's next selection is expected to be finalised in early 2009!
That's about 18 months from now, which doesn't leave much time to come up with anything new really.

Quoting Leskova (Reply 11):
if the A350-1000 isn't defined enough for BA right now, how could Y3 be defined enough in time?
There is just no way Boeing can have a fully defined Y3 laid out to BA in time, even if they would start to work on it now, so I think Boeing will have to compete against the A350-1000 with the 77W. Needless to repeat all the reasons why it would take a miracle to have BA order the 77W over the A350-1000, I think.

Besides, BA said they "wanted more certainty about what Boeing's response [to the A350-1000] will be", so in my view this means BA are just seeking the reassurance that the A350-1000 will remain largely uncontested indeed, so they can safely order it as soon as they are satisfied with the level of firmity of it.

2- The second interesting part is that BA is also considering the A350-900 in their next tender and here I think is where the 787-10 will come into play, provided it is not just a stretched 787-9 as Boeing is discretely presenting to key customers, but the much discussed re-winged, re-engined and re-geared longer ranger HGW version.

In short: it seems like this tender will be
787-10X vs A350-900
77W vs A350-1000

Given the fact Airbus can offer BA a single all new platform which comes with RR engines, whereas Boeing must compete with 2 different platforms, one of which considered old tech and without RR engines and the other one not even committed to less than 18 months before BA is to select it, this tender has all the looks like its Airbus' to loose...
Probably the reason why BA is trying to widen the scope to even non-existing planes, in the hope to gain some negotiating margin on Airbus.

[Edited 2007-10-02 18:27:56]
 
hloutweg
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:31 am

Unless BA wants to get stuck in waiting time so see if the competitor is gonna have a better product, I'm pretty sure Y3 does not figure in BA evaluations. Y3 has not been released and the time frame won't be long enough to give BA the information they need put in the selection process. 787-10 has the greatest possibilities while 787-11 is almost a Y3 in the sense that it is also far from reality. Within the time frame mentioned by BA, the A350 will have been defined in its design and frozen, and will be well in production. I also expect production of the 787-10 to have started, but nowhere to be seen will Y3 be.
In Varietate Concordia
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:37 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):
BA's next selection is expected to be finalised in early 2009! That's about 18 months from now, which doesn't leave much time to come up with anything new really.

Fortunate for Boeing they are not coming up with anything really new. Yellowstone goes back years, so Boeing has been working for years on a successor plane to the 777 and 747. True, they likely have not been expending any great effort on it, but if folks believe that Boeing has given it no thought, they're mistaken.

Also, before the A350XWB was launched, Airbus had been touting (and selling) an enhanced A340-500 and A340-600 model. It is almost assured Boeing was working on enhancements to the 777-200LR and 777-300ER to combat that, which may be where the rumblings of an "improved 777" are coming from. Obviously, one can't expect miracles so it's not going to be able to hold it's own with what Airbus says the A350 family will do, but 77L and 77W sales were helped immensely by a few percentage point improvement in performance, so if Boeing can do that yet again, it certainly will not hurt.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):
The second interesting part is that BA is also considering the A350-900 in their next tender and here I think is where the 787-10 will come into play, provided it is not just a stretched 787-9 as Boeing is discretely presenting to key customers, but the much discussed re-winged, re-engined and re-geared longer ranger HGW version.

Anyone know what the MEW is of a BA four-class 777-200ER? A ~230t 787-10 might just be enough for BA considering their lower passenger configuration (though FIRST and ClubWorld seating is not light), which would make an A350-900's extra capabilities superfluous and a drawback more then a benefit.

I remain on record, of course, about an improved 787 coming. And while I (and many others) believe it will be a 6m stretch, it could be longer. Perhaps Boeing wants the 787-10 to be a 9m stretch that would bracket itself nicely right in-between the A350-900 and A350-1000. Then the 787-11, if launched, would be an 80m bird setting itself beyond the A350-1000 and 777-300ER as well as nicely tucking in underneath the 747-8I.
 
caminito
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:40 am

Quoting Moo (Thread starter):
So, is BA expecting Boeing to put forward Y3 for this tender?

To allow a better discussion of your question, please define as far as possible what do you expect the Y3 should be?

Quoting Columba (Reply 1):
Which means for me that they don´t really are interested in the 77W as it is offered today

IMO clearly not so. Of course, if they could get a more modern aircraft within the right time frame, and most important, be confortable that what the manufacturer offers will be really delivered in such time frame, they would prefer so. If not, they could go with the B777-300ER as it is today. But in such case, even the B748i could revive.

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 3):
While the A350-1000 may not be sufficiently defined that would apply even more to any of the Boeing evolutions mentioned i.e. the 777-300ER "Advanced", something more radically new, as well as the 787-10.

The B787-10X , even if the performance data is still not released, is much more defined as the A350-1000 precisely because it is an evolution which means that many problems and tasks which a radically new aircraft as the A350 must address are already solved.

Quoting Columba (Reply 4):
Looks for me they are waiting on a 787-10ER and maybe a 77W replacement that will compete with the A350-1000 but offers commonality with the 787.

If it is not a typo, please elaborate regarding this commonality

Quoting Leskova (Reply 11):
I think that's stretching imagination to far beyond the breaking-point... ... as others have noted, if the A350-1000 isn't defined enough for them, how could Y3 be defined enough?

A good point. Unless if BA's confidence in the corresponding manufacturer has something to do with it. But more probable, these statement origine in the present phenomena which I call the Clark-Dixon syndrome, meaning CEO's making too many and contradictory statements.

Quoting RIX (Reply 17):
- agree completely if the assumption ("BA isn't planning on ordering now" - that is, round 2 may be postponed beyond 2008/9


You cannot a priori make such statement. They can do so if they order a known entity as the B777-300ER (possibly with some not major upgrades), as well as the B748i which is already largely defined and the A380, assuming that they are not loo large or airport unfriendly. But they cannot wait long if they want B787-10X (if Boeing so offers), less so if it is a A350-1000 and much less so if it is a Y3! And even if some say the contrary, I am sure they would not like to fly 2 generation late, high CASM and more than 20 years old B744s until 2018-2020.

[Edited 2007-10-02 18:42:44]
 
flipdewaf
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:46 am

Quoting Parapente (Reply 16):
I believe it will be the Y3- BWB, a twin at around 400 pax. No doubt we will see when they are ready.

I dont think that Y3 will be a 400 seat twin BWB, I was talking with one of my lecturers today and 400pax will require 3 engines likeley mounted on the rear at the top of the aircraft, there would have to be some serious new metal tech to be able to get engines up to the 650kN range.

I can see the 787 maybe reaching the -10 size (if it would increase by that between the -8 and -9) but think stretching it the same amount to the -11 would require a lot of work on strengthening the fuselage. If you are going to re-engine, re-wing, re-gear and strengthen the fuselage then you my aswell get your pencils out and start on a fresh piece of paper.

Just what I think, feel free to bash my ideas all you like.

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JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:48 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):
There is just no way Boeing can have a fully defined Y3 laid out to BA in time, even if they would start to work on it now, so I think Boeing will have to compete against the A350-1000 with the 77W. Needless to repeat all the reasons why it would take a miracle to have BA order the 77W over the A350-1000, I think.

This assumes that Boeing is doing nothing about a 777 replacement, which to me, seems unlikely. We all know that the 350-1000 will be going after the 777. Since Boeing has been pretty successful in the airplane business so far, I'm pretty sure they know it too. Just because they're not talking to A.Net, doesn't mean they've not been working on it.

Before anyone comes up with the, "Boeing's resources are all being used to get the 787 ready", line, please present up to date information on exactly what resources are allotted to which project.

Boeing has just as much time to come up with a different wingbox and fuse sections to size it up to the 350-1000 as airbus has to make the -1000 in the first place.

Here is what Airbus has for the -1000: Specifications, brochures, modelling.

Here's what Boeing is already manufacturing for the -10/11/whatever: everything except the specific pieces needed to upgrade from the -9 to the -whatever.

Hands up everybody who realistically thinks that Boeing is going to, without a credible fight, hand over their most profitable aircraft line to the competition...?
What the...?
 
FAEDC3
Posts: 113
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:50 am

Even though I´d love to see the launch of the Y3 program in the near future, I just can see how Boyle´s statement hints said launching, specially taking the following into account:

* 773 are selling really well, launching its successor would definitely affect future sales
* In BA´s case, they didn't choose the 350-1000 because is not ripe enough, well, how would they order something that will be less defined by the time they have to come with a decision
* If figures for the 350-1000 or 787-10 are not clear, who would think that BA will order a plane that is not even a paper plane?

Regards,

FAEDC3
 
jdevora
Posts: 225
Joined: Tue Aug 08, 2006 4:41 am

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:51 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 19):
Maybe I'm not imaginative enough but I really can't imagine how putting a new wingbox and triple bogies on a 787 is that much more of a stretch than the 350 going from the -800 to the -1000.

The problem is that, apparently, right now Boeing is not willing to put this new wingbox and the triple bogie on the 787.

If they do, there is still a difference (I don't know if it is an important one) the 787-10 is a double stretch and the A350-1000 is a single one (the base model is the -900)

Cheers
JD
 
RIX
Posts: 1590
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 1:56 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 19):
What ever the 350 will do, the 787 will be able to do...and visa versa. Anyone who thinks that one will be waaaayyyyyy better than the other, for planes of similar size, should get a new crack dealer

 checkmark   Wink

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):
Boeing will have to compete against the A350-1000 with the 77W

- these 18 month are about to offer airplane, not to build  Smile. 18 months to offer HGW version of already built (and already facing its first flight delays  Wink) aircraft - not enough??! See my first quote in this post then...  Silly

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):
BA are just seeking the reassurance that the A350-1000 will remain largely uncontested indeed

- HGW offer (not an already build aircraft) may easily include more than one version. Or even just the one BA need.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):
In short: it seems like this tender will be
787-10X vs A350-900
77W vs A350-1000

- even in this case 787-10X + 773 "advanced" is far from hopeless: BA might need not that many of 773s, and it fits to their existing 772 fleet (which is almost always considered here as "leaving" - it's not!). Advantage of 350 may be easily wiped out by not introducing another - 3rd! - new type. But, like I said, if HGW is offered at all, I absolutely/entirely/completely don't see what would be the problem to address both sizes. Again: A359/A are totally/entiraly paper planes. B78A/B HGW would be an upgrade of already existing plane. If this is not Boeing's to lose, then I don't know what is.

And I agree that neither 18 month is enough for Y3, nor does it make any sense to get there with no reasonable market in sight (that can't be covered by 787).
 
slz396
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:00 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
Yellowstone goes back years, so Boeing has been working for years on a successor plane to the 777 and 747. True, they likely have not been expending any great effort on it, but if folks believe that Boeing has given it no thought, they're mistaken

Given BA's reaction to the A350-1000 as it is defined now, Y3 would basically have to be design frozen in 18 months...
I don't know how much thought Boeing has been giving Y3 so far, but I don't think they have given it THAT much thought to make any such deadline...

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
77L and 77W sales were helped immensely by a few percentage point improvement in performance, so if Boeing can do that yet again, it certainly will not hurt.

I think they will already need them just to avoid seeing the gap between 777 and A350 widen after the reports Airbus has revised the thrust requirement of the A350-900 and -1000 downwards by 3,000/4,000lbs thanks to the better than expected low speed handling of the plane. I know you are all to well aware of just what a HUGE reduction in thrust requirement this actually is and how big an impact this has on fuel burn and thus ultimately CASM.

Seriously, I don't think any enhanced 77W is standing a chance against the A350, at least not at a wannabe new operator who is aiming for EIS mid next decade. Short term and with existing operators however, we have a whole different story, as is also demonstrated by the sales of the A330 right now.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:03 am

Quoting Jdevora (Reply 28):

Well I must admit, Boeing hasn't been talking to me about it so I have no idea what they're willing to do...except to not leave their cash cow to the other guys...
What the...?
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:03 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):
In short: it seems like this tender will be
787-10X vs A350-900
77W vs A350-1000

Which, if true, is why I think the A350XWB will be entering BA's fleet.

The question I have, though, is if Boeing is going to invest further in a -10X, then how much additional investment would be needed to incorporate that investment into a -11 as well? In other words, if they are going to spend a theoretical $2B on the -10X investment, then would $4B get them the -11 as well? If so, for $4B, it could be:

787-10X vs A350-900
787-11X vs A350-1000

Two widebody aircraft families versus 3, though obviously there would be a number of differences in the 787-8/9 vs 787-10/11 lineup.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
dl767captain
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:03 am

A 777NG could be a good alternative to a complete Y3, the 777NG would compete quite nicely with the A350. It would be expensive to update all technology including composite frames but it could be a great competitor to the A350 and allow boeing to focus on the Y1 unyil a complete Y3 is available
 
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seabosdca
Posts: 6591
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:04 am

Quoting Parapente (Reply 16):
This would require as the "experts" have stated a new wing,box section and undercarage - and engine? - yet it will still be narrower than the XWB. This makes no sense.

Why not? The extra width of the XWB means very little, unless it enables the installation of a specific premium product (which we don't know about yet for BA or any other potential A350 customer). In economy, both aircraft will be 9-abreast aircraft; in premium economy, 8-abreast aircraft. Underneath, both will hold side-by-side LD3s. The width is not different enough that a very long 787 will be significantly less structurally efficient than a very long A350.

It seems to me that Boeing would be in a perfect position to compete head-on with the A350 by developing a 787-10HGW and a 787-11, which would bracket the A350-1000 in size. Such a development would be far less costly than a wider Y3, which in any case would probably be less efficient than the big 787 at non-VLA sizes. BA would be able to replace 744s with a combination of A388 and 787-11, and replace 772s with a 787-10HGW (or possibly with a combination of 787-10HGW and a "regular" 787-10 based on the 787-9).

A 787-10HGW, as many on here have imagined it, would be nearly as capable as a 772LR and vastly more efficient. (The same could be said about the A350-900R.) A "regular" 787-10, while limited to B-market range only, could be the most efficient aircraft ever built for medium hauls. It could do everything a 772ER can do while weighing 40 tons less and having extra usable cargo volume. On missions it could fly, it would almost certainly be more efficient than an A350-900 because of its light weight.
 
747400sp
Posts: 3900
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:05 am

Quoting Gh123 (Reply 7):
Sorry but what is Y3?

Y3 means Yellowstone 3. This is Boeing study for an airliner that both replace both a 777 and 747. The 787 was the Y2, and there is a Y1 study for a 737 and 757 replacement.

Hope this helps.  Smile
 
RIX
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:20 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 32):
if they are going to spend a theoretical $2B on the -10X investment, then would $4B get them the -11 as well?

- if it's $2B for -10, then it's much less than $4B for both.

I'm pretty sure "something more radically new" is 787HGW.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 32):
Two widebody aircraft families versus 3

- but once again, it's 3 versus 4!  Smile

Quoting SeaBosDca (Reply 34):
A 787-10HGW, as many on here have imagined it, would be nearly as capable as a 772LR and vastly more efficient. (The same could be said about the A350-900R.) A "regular" 787-10, while limited to B-market range only, could be the most efficient aircraft ever built for medium hauls. It could do everything a 772ER can do while weighing 40 tons less and having extra usable cargo volume. On missions it could fly, it would almost certainly be more efficient than an A350-900 because of its light weight.

 checkmark  In short, it's 787-10/787-10HGW/787-11HGW  Wink
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:21 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 30):
Given BA's reaction to the A350-1000 as it is defined now, Y3 would basically have to be design frozen in 18 months...I don't know how much thought Boeing has been giving Y3 so far, but I don't think they have given it THAT much thought to make any such deadline...

Probably not, which is one more reason to launch the 787HGW.

However, Airbus has done okay offering the A350 - in all her forms - without firm configuration, so if Boeing within 18 months says "we will offer a Y3 that can do X within a few years", it might just be enough.  duck 

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 32):
The question I have, though, is if Boeing is going to invest further in a -10X, then how much additional investment would be needed to incorporate that investment into a -11 as well?

Essentially nothing. As the 787-9 leverages everything developed for the 787-8, so would a 787-11 leverage everything developed for a 787-10HGW.
 
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glideslope
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 2:25 am

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 6):
Well, gentleman - you've heard it from the horse's mouth. Say hello to the first Y3 launch customer: British Airways.

Edit: on a second thought - if BA goes for it, I would not be surprised if UA and NW followed in the split second. All of the sudden with Y1 being on the mercy of engine manufacturers, the unimaginable thought of Y3 coming ahead of Y1 seems far more plausible..

IMO, It's very plausible, and is exactly as you state. I think Y1 is done. Boeing ran a co-developement program along with the 787. It's simply a process of entering new numbers, and out pops the baby twin isle YI with exclusive GenX Power.

Y3 will EIS prior to the 350, and BA will be the Launch Customer, IMO.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
insiderinfo
Posts: 73
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2007 10:43 am

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 3:03 am

Quoting Parapente (Reply 16):
So there is a need to replace 30 odd 744's.

Actually they'll need to replace 45 more 744's..and that's not including any expansion..

thay have 57 744's and replaced 12 with A380's....still 748 maybe the best option......purely for size...and capacity to replace the 744's..
 
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seabosdca
Posts: 6591
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 8:33 am

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 3:13 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
Essentially nothing. As the 787-9 leverages everything developed for the 787-8, so would a 787-11 leverage everything developed for a 787-10HGW.

And, just to add to the pile of reasons to make the investment, developing a 787-10HGW would also enable construction, at very little marginal cost, of a ULR version of either the 787-8 or the 787-9. The range of either, but especially of a 787-8ULR, would be well beyond anything yet seen on an airliner. BA would be one of a handful of airlines that could really use a few examples of such a beast...
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15080
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 3:22 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
Give Airbus and Boeing some time, people... I think you'll all be pleased with what they come up with.

In this internet age, yesterday is still too late.  Wink

Quoting RIX (Reply 17):
- yep, and it looks to be OK for BA to wait until all of them are ready.

they are in no hurry to replace the 777ER and the newer 744s. It's the older 767s, the oldest 777As and the oldest 744s, and this previous order + options covers that mostly.

Expect the 2009 order might just be the exercising of options plus some extra 787s, likely 787-9 or 787-10...

Quoting RIX (Reply 17):
And there is no pending order to replace 777s! 777 is a part of BA fleet, and a huge one, after all is done!

Especially the few that are yet to be delivered...  Wink

Quoting Hloutweg (Reply 22):
Unless BA wants to get stuck in waiting time so see if the competitor is gonna have a better product,

BA has their bases covered. Somehow they are getting 787s in 2010 even though it's "sold out" through 2013. BA likely has standing "reservations" at both companies.

BA waited until 3 years before they wanted to take delivery of the first planes to place this current order (2010-2007 = 3 years). Why people believe BA has some urgency to sign on for plane that won't be available for 8 years, I can't get understand. BA will wait up until 2011-2012 before they get worried about being "too late" for 2015. And if in 2011 Boeing has defined a kick-ass 777 replacement that won't arrive until 2016 or 2017, and BA decides to take it, you'll just see some additional 787 orders to fill the gap, much in the same way BA ordered the additional 777s recently.

Or, they could decide at that time that the A350-1000 is the best for them and order them at that time for 2015 delivery.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
RIX
Posts: 1590
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2000 4:46 am

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:07 am

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 39):
thay have 57 744's and replaced 12 with A380's....still 748 maybe the best option......purely for size...

Looks like they reshape their entire fleet/routes strategy. 380 where frequency can't be reasonably applied, everything else - no larger than 773. Hence, no need to get another "big one".
 
caminito
Posts: 115
Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:04 am

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:09 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 41):
Or, they could decide at that time that the A350-1000 is the best for them and order them at that time for 2015 delivery.

There is no way to do that. Airbus optimistically states EIS 2015, as BA would certainly not be the only customer (QR has laready ordered 20!) any delivery befor start 2017 is wishful thinking
 
Carls
Posts: 194
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:22 am

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:16 am

Quoting RIX (Reply 17):
they'll wait until definition of larger 787 too, won't they?

That is exactly my point. They will wait until A and B get both Aircrafts ready and then they will make a decision base in all the technical data and all the performance expected for both designs..

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
Anyone know what the MEW is of a BA four-class 777-200ER? A ~230t 787-10 might just be enough for BA considering their lower passenger configuration (though FIRST and ClubWorld seating is not light), which would make an A350-900's extra capabilities superfluous and a drawback more then a benefit.

More payload, more passengers superfluous, and more a drawback than a benefit.....Well I disagree with you.
I see those points as an advantage for the 350, after all we need to see what the 787-1000 will offer because I have heard that the 1000 it won't have the same advantages that the 800 and 900 has. 781 is just a paper proposal and until today I have not seen anything official about it.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
Quoting Leskova (Reply 11):
I think that's stretching imagination to far beyond the breaking-point... ... as others have noted, if the A350-1000 isn't defined enough for them, how could Y3 be defined enough?

A good point. Unless if BA's confidence in the corresponding manufacturer has something to do with it.

No I will call it "Imagination at work"

[quote=FAEDC3,reply=27]In BA�s case, they didn't choose the 350-1000 because is not ripe enough, well, how would they order something that will be less defined by the time they have to come with a decision

Oh Really? So Airbus won't have anything related to the A350-1000 defined by 2009. You must know something we don't. Can you share with all of us the information you have to say this.

Quoting RIX (Reply 29):
- even in this case 787-10X + 773 "advanced"

Is this a new invention of A.Net????
 
Carls
Posts: 194
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 1:22 am

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:20 am

Quoting RIX (Reply 17):
they'll wait until definition of larger 787 too, won't they?

That is exactly my point. They will wait until A and B get both Aircrafts ready and then they will make a decision base in all the technical data and all the performance expected for both designs..

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
Anyone know what the MEW is of a BA four-class 777-200ER? A ~230t 787-10 might just be enough for BA considering their lower passenger configuration (though FIRST and ClubWorld seating is not light), which would make an A350-900's extra capabilities superfluous and a drawback more then a benefit.

More payload, more passengers superfluous, and more a drawback than a benefit.....Well I disagree with you.
I see those points as an advantage for the 350, after all we need to see what the 787-1000 will offer because I have heard that the 1000 it won't have the same advantages that the 800 and 900 has. 781 is just a paper proposal and until today I have not seen anything official about it.

Quoting FAEDC3 (Reply 27):
In BA�s case, they didn't choose the 350-1000 because is not ripe enough, well, how would they order something that will be less defined by the time they have to come with a decision

Oh Really? So Airbus won't have anything related to the A350-1000 defined by 2009. You must know something we don't. Can you share with all of us the information you have to say this.

Quoting RIX (Reply 29):
- even in this case 787-10X + 773 "advanced"

Is this a new invention of A.Net????
 
ncelhr
Posts: 258
Joined: Tue Jul 04, 2006 10:53 pm

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:33 am

Two questions:

- could Y3 be a double decker?

- could Boeing re-engine (and modify) the 777 to make it yet more efficient?

Thanks for your answers.
 
kaneporta1
Posts: 735
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 12:22 am

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:36 am

Quoting Caminito (Reply 43):
There is no way to do that. Airbus optimistically states EIS 2015, as BA would certainly not be the only customer (QR has laready ordered 20!) any delivery befor start 2017 is wishful thinking

Why 2015 is optimistic?
And why delivery before 2017 is wishful thinking? It's not like every A350 customer have to get their planes first, before deliveries to BA start.
I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
 
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Stitch
Posts: 26947
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:40 am

Quoting Carls (Reply 44):
More payload, more passengers superfluous, and more a drawback than a benefit.....Well I disagree with you...I see those points as an advantage for the 350,

Yet why do airlines buy the A343 instead of the A345? The A345 carries more payload and passengers, after all.

But it also weighs a great deal more which impacts it's economics on the same missions as a 343.

I'm not saying the A359 is a bad plane. I'm just saying that it's not the be-all, end-all of widebody 300-seat twins.

The A333 was much more popular then the 777-200A because it carried enough people enough distance at better economics in more cases. A 230t 787-10 might just prove similar itself, if not in most cases, in many of them.

Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 46):
- could Y3 be a double decker?

Could it? Yes.

Would it? No.

Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 46):
- could Boeing re-engine (and modify) the 777 to make it yet more efficient?

GE might be able to incorporate some GEnx technologies into the GE90-11xB series (the GE90-11xC series?) to make it a bit more efficient. Boeing can also lighten the airframe to raise non-MEW payload. But these changes will not be enough to fully counteract the inherent fuel and MEW advantages the A350 brings to the table.

[Edited 2007-10-02 21:41:19]
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15080
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:42 am

Quoting Caminito (Reply 43):
There is no way to do that. Airbus optimistically states EIS 2015, as BA would certainly not be the only customer (QR has laready ordered 20!) any delivery befor start 2017 is wishful thinking

Nah, 2016 at least. By 2016 the A350 line should be ramped up, at least if the 2013 EIS is to believed. And again, BA likely has preferential timing already secured.

But even if it's 2016, it shows that there is no urgency to order this plane by 2009. BA doesn't order planes that are 7 years off. 3-4 years. So 2011-2012 is a timeframe they can live with, and Boeing would have launched the Y3 by then...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.

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