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RIX
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:26 am

Quoting Carls (Reply 45):
781 is just a paper proposal and until today I have not seen anything official about it

- nope. 350 is a paper proposal, while 78A is not even a paper but rather "verbal" proposal... of real aircraft upgrade. If you mean, 350 is already offered while larger 787 - exactly, but they have about 18 months in case of BA, and plenty of time in general.

Quoting Carls (Reply 45):
Quoting RIX (Reply 29):
- even in this case 787-10X + 773 "advanced"

Is this a new invention of A.Net????

What "this"? Possibility of 787HGW and/or upgrades on 773?  Smile
 
Carls
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 6:01 am

Quoting RIX (Reply 50):
"verbal" proposal... of real aircraft upgrade.

A "verbal" proposal with a huge modifications, Wings, wing box and all the other that a third stretch will have attached.
They have been getting pressure from Emirates, Qantas and now BA, in case they are asking for it, and EK is supposed to order up to 100 units plus the Qantas order that might be enough to start offering, and Boeing has been reluctant to do it, so that must be for "some" important reason.

Do you really think that 777 can compete with the A350? So you should think that the A330 "Enhanced or Advanced" could compete with the 787. They, Airbus and Boeing, can improve their performance to the limits but neither the 777 nor the A330 can compete with such advance new generation aircrafts.
 
Wsp
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 6:22 am

Quoting Caminito (Reply 43):
There is no way to do that. Airbus optimistically states EIS 2015, as BA would certainly not be the only customer (QR has laready ordered 20!) any delivery befor start 2017 is wishful thinking

Thats news to me, Airbus has published detailed production schedule breakdowns by model?

You are confusing certification schedules with production schedules. Boeing certainly doesn't believe in shutting down their production while certification is in progress, why would Airbus do that then?
 
StressGuy
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 6:58 am

As I read the different posts in this forum I keep reading in about the supposed 787-11. I really don't believe Boeing will design or build this model. I haven't heard this model mentioned once by Boeing. I think it has become an a.net myth because some on this forum keep espousing its greatness.

I expect Boeing to do as many minor upgrades to the 777-300ER as possible and then to start marketing the Y3 to airlines in the next year(behind the scene) and have an EIS in 2015-2017. A few upgraded 777-300ER's would tide BA over nicely I am sure.

As far as lack of engineering resources goes, one can't say for sure if developing the Y1/Y3 together and finishing up the 787 all at the same time is feasible but considering the number of programs going on concurrently (787-8, 747BCF, 777F, 747-8F, Tanker, P-8) I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility like some on this forum do.

One must remember that the Yellowstone project developed a set of technologies to implement accross the entire product line. It looks to be interesting times.
 
RIX
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 7:02 am

Quoting Carls (Reply 51):
huge modifications, Wings, wing box and all the other

- modifications of existing aircraft, already rolled out. Much less "huge" than building what currently is still "paper" one. It's funny to see how 350 is discussed vs 787 here as if both already exist - or both still on paper. Or it's not 5 years but 5 months or 5 weeks time gap between the two. Or it is 5 years, but the opposite direction  Smile.

Quoting Carls (Reply 51):
...start offering, and Boeing has been reluctant to do it

- reluctant now doesn't mean still reluctant in 18 months. Or 12 months. Or 3 months. We are not talking what A nd B are offering today - we are discussing round 2 of BA order.

Quoting Carls (Reply 51):
Do you really think that 777 can compete with the A350?

I never said just that. Read my comments to why 787-10 or -10HGW or whatever else + 773, upgraded or even not, may work vs 350. Feel free to disagree (better with creative arguments) but "777 can compete with the A350" is not what I mean out of context. If you read my whole post, of course.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 7:08 am

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 19):
What ever the 350 will do, the 787 will be able to do...and visa versa. Anyone who thinks that one will be waaaayyyyyy better than the other, for planes of similar size, should get a new crack dealer.

This is not actually true. As it stands now, the 787 is much more efficient for the smaller sizes, as the A350 starts out with higher MTOW and a larger wing. There is no Airbus competitor for the 788; and the 789 is more efficient than the A358. Airbus did this deliberately, IMHO, aiming more at the 777 (which will clearly be less economical than the A350) rather than going head to head with the 787. The question for Boeing is how they are going to answer it.

Quoting Jdevora (Reply 28):
The problem is that, apparently, right now Boeing is not willing to put this new wingbox and the triple bogie on the 787.

The real question is whether or not Boeing is going to build Y3. If they do plan to, they will not build a heavier 787, as it will encroach on Y3's territory. Boeing will not compromise an entire line just to please one or two customers, no matter how important. I believe that is why Boeing managers have made statements that there will be no HGW version of the 787, and the 787-10 is as high as they will go. The real question is when they will announce it. Obviously they want to get the 787 flying first, and it certainly looks like they want to do Y1 first.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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seabosdca
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 7:16 am

Quoting StressGuy (Reply 53):
As I read the different posts in this forum I keep reading in about the supposed 787-11. I really don't believe Boeing will design or build this model. I haven't heard this model mentioned once by Boeing. I think it has become an a.net myth because some on this forum keep espousing its greatness.

I expect Boeing to do as many minor upgrades to the 777-300ER as possible and then to start marketing the Y3 to airlines in the next year(behind the scene) and have an EIS in 2015-2017. A few upgraded 777-300ER's would tide BA over nicely I am sure.

I assume by "Y3" you mean an aircraft wider than the 787. A number of us who do think that a 787-10HGW and 787-11 are likely think that those aircraft and "Y3" may well be one and the same. Remember, those aircraft would have many new components -- new wing box and wings, new undercarriage, (most likely) significantly redone systems, etc. There is no reason they would have to be a "stretch too far" of the existing 787 variants.

What would a wider fuselage gain for Boeing? Not much. A fuselage of 787/A350XWB width hits a sweet spot in volumetric efficiency, because there is not a lot of wasted volume in the crown, and because it is optimized for 2 LD3s side-by-side down below. The only gain I can see is that a wider Y3 would allow for a largest variant significantly larger than the 77W, while a 787-11 would probably be roughly the same size as a 77W. The progress of the 748I and A388 suggest that forgoing the VLA market would cost Boeing much less than the difference between developing a 787-based Y3 and an all-new one.
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 7:34 am

Quoting StressGuy (Reply 53):
As I read the different posts in this forum I keep reading in about the supposed 787-11. I really don't believe Boeing will design or build this model. I haven't heard this model mentioned once by Boeing. I think it has become an a.net myth because some on this forum keep espousing its greatness.

Well a dedicated 10 or 11 abreast Y3 could put a major crimp on the A350's long-term prospects, so it is possible we could see a repeat of the A340/777 saga with the A350/Y3: Airbus launches first, secures a couple hundred orders, and then Boeing launches later with something better and locks down a thousand-plus.
 
RIX
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 7:47 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 55):
This is not actually true.

- it's out of context, he was not talking just about 788/9 and 358/9/A.

Quoting StressGuy (Reply 53):
I think it [787-11] has become an a.net myth

- 787-10 was also mentioned first here, then by Boeing  Smile.
 
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ER757
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 8:41 am

Quoting StressGuy (Reply 53):
As I read the different posts in this forum I keep reading in about the supposed 787-11. I really don't believe Boeing will design or build this model. I haven't heard this model mentioned once by Boeing. I think it has become an a.net myth because some on this forum keep espousing its greatness.

 checkmark  Not sure who started the talk of the 787-11 but many here have picked up and run with it. My opinion is it ain't gonna happen. The -10 is as far as they can efficiently take the 787. Anything more would require sufficient additional modifications to warrant a new model #. If that's what Y3 turns out to be, well that wouldn't surprise me.

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 38):
Y3 will EIS prior to the 350, and BA will be the Launch Customer, IMO.

I would be very surprised if this happens.
 
Wsp
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 8:55 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 57):
Well a dedicated 10 or 11 abreast Y3 could put a major crimp on the A350's long-term prospects, so it is possible we could see a repeat of the A340/777 saga with the A350/Y3: Airbus launches first, secures a couple hundred orders, and then Boeing launches later with something better and locks down a thousand-plus.

Last time Boeing managed to put two engines less on their model compared to Airbus' offering. If they can repeat this this time, they sure are unbeatable...
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 9:20 am

Quoting Wsp (Reply 60):
Last time Boeing managed to put two engines less on their model compared to Airbus' offering. If they can repeat this this time, they sure are unbeatable...

Two less engines were not the only reason the 77E, 77L and 77W have outsold the A342/A343/A345/A346... Being able to put one or two extra folks per row in all three classes of service certainly didn't hurt the CASM equations and, at least up front, helped the RASM equation, too...
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 9:24 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 57):
Well a dedicated 10 or 11 abreast Y3 could put a major crimp on the A350's long-term prospects

Since an aircraft like that would slot in above the 787-10, it would be a pretty sizeable plane, and enters a niche market. I don't think the plus 787-10 and sub 748i gap is a big enough market to justify a completely new family. Any airline that orders the 787-10 will have scant need for introducing another widebody type - be that a "Y3" type or an A350-1000-type.

I do agree that the A35X series may be another A340-style short-lived type. But I disagree on the drivers: The major crimp in the A350's long term prospects remains that
1) Most major carriers have selected the 787, and will opt to grow the fleet with 787-10's instead of introducing another type in the A35X
2) There is still no prospect of a GE engine offering

Quoting Moo (Thread starter):
An interesting Flight Global article on the next BA wide body order throws up some intriguing quotes

Argh! No! You've just started the first of a decade's worth of "When will BA order Y3" threads!  Wow!
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 9:29 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 62):
Since an aircraft like that would slot in above the 787-10, it would be a pretty sizeable plane, and enters a niche market. I don't think the plus 787-10 and sub 748i gap is a big enough market to justify a completely new family. Any airline that orders the 787-10 will have scant need for introducing another widebody type - be that a "Y3" type or an A350-1000-type.

If Boeing launches a Y3, they will not launch a 787-10.

Or if they do, she's going to be aimed at the A330-300 and 777-200A replacement market with an MTOW of no more then 230t and being a simple stretch of the 787-9 fuselage and powerplants with maybe some different wingtip extensions.

Boeing will not launch a 787-10HGW and also launch Y3 - too much duplication of effort.
 
RIX
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 9:54 am

Quoting ER757 (Reply 59):
The -10 is as far as they can efficiently take the 787. Anything more would require sufficient additional modifications to warrant a new model #

It's like "773 (non-ER) is as far as they can efficiently take the 777". Neither 737NG nor 345/6 are new model numbers. Nor, of course, 772/LR/773ER. It would be just another 787.

Quoting ER757 (Reply 59):
Quoting Glideslope (Reply 38):
Y3 will EIS prior to the 350, and BA will be the Launch Customer, IMO.

I would be very surprised if this happens.

- to say the least. Y3 may be offered before 350 EIS -that sounds plausible  Smile. Even if Yellowstone project allows Y2 development to be "very reusable" on Y1/Y3, it still far away from actually building it. Unless Y3 is really 787HGW (a new model, indeed  Wink).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 63):
Boeing will not launch a 787-10HGW and also launch Y3

- definitely, and I still believe that if "something more radically new" makes any sense (or, at least, is what exactly was said), then it's 787HGW (assuming, it's not Y3  Smile).
 
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seabosdca
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 10:18 am

Quoting RIX (Reply 64):
It's like "773 (non-ER) is as far as they can efficiently take the 777". Neither 737NG nor 345/6 are new model numbers. Nor, of course, 772/LR/773ER. It would be just another 787.

 checkmark  But it should be noted that there would be more physical differences between a 787-10HGW and a "regular" 787-10 than there are between, say a 777-200LR and a 777-200ER.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 63):
Boeing will not launch a 787-10HGW and also launch Y3 - too much duplication of effort.

Assuming by "Y3" you mean "a new plane with a fuselage wider than a 787," I agree. I also still don't see how a wider Y3 would justify the considerable extra cost to create it, compared with longer, heavier HGW 787s. The only advantage of a Y3 that I can see would be at the top end (substantially beyond 777-300 size), where, lately, sales have been dwindling.
 
ZiggyStardust
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 11:15 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):
In short: it seems like this tender will be
787-10X vs A350-900
77W vs A350-1000

Given the fact Airbus can offer BA a single all new platform which comes with RR engines, whereas Boeing must compete with 2 different platforms, one of which considered old tech and without RR engines and the other one not even committed to less than 18 months before BA is to select it, this tender has all the looks like its Airbus' to loose...

Boeing will have flight data from the -8 to present and show BA to back up their projections for the -10. That's a powerful difference versus the competition.

Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 46):
- could Boeing re-engine (and modify) the 777 to make it yet more efficient?

One thing I've thought about is what if Boeing reshaped/flatten the 777's frames to make it a true 10-seater. They need to find 3-4 inches of space. This allows the 772 to have the same capacity as a 773 and the 773 to be a 400 seat plane. What is the empty weight difference between the 772-LR and 773ER?

IIRC, Airbus proposed doing this for one of the first A350 iterations to combat the 787's spaciousness in 8-abreast.
 
United Airline
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 11:47 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 48):
Could it? Yes.

Would it? No.

Last time I read that the Y3 will be slightly bigger than the B 747-8 and will be a double decker.

Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 56):
The progress of the 748I and A388 suggest that forgoing the VLA market would cost Boeing much less than the difference between developing a 787-based Y3 and an all-new one.

There isn't enough market for the VLA now and Boeing never said that there will never be such a market. There might well be a large market in 10-20 years time.

Quoting Parapente (Reply 16):
So there is a need to replace 30 odd 744's. Looking at their 787 order and the real truth about fragmentation one is probably looking less than one for one -although BA does see continued capacity growth. They have ruled out the 773er and 748i. Clearly no 772 sized aircraft can replace that capacity gap.



Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 39):
Actually they'll need to replace 45 more 744's..and that's not including any expansion..

thay have 57 744's and replaced 12 with A380's....still 748 maybe the best option......purely for size...and capacity to replace the 744's..

They haven't ruled out the B 747-8 or the B 777-300ER yet. They might well place a large order like Lufthansa.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 32):
787-10X vs A350-900
787-11X vs A350-1000



Quoting DL767captain (Reply 33):
A 777NG could be a good alternative to a complete Y3, the 777NG would compete quite nicely with the A350. It would be expensive to update all technology including composite frames but it could be a great competitor to the A350 and allow boeing to focus on the Y1 unyil a complete Y3 is available

Eventually Boeing will have to come up with a B 777/747 replacement since both the B 747/777 cannot go on forever.

My two cents.
 
RIX
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 11:52 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):

In short: it seems like this tender will be
787-10X vs A350-900
77W vs A350-1000

Given the fact Airbus can offer BA a single all new platform which comes with RR engines, whereas Boeing must compete with 2 different platforms, one of which considered old tech and without RR engines and the other one not even committed to less than 18 months before BA is to select it, this tender has all the looks like its Airbus' to loose...

- [already replied on this, but from post almost right above saw something else to address ] even if that's the case, none of these 2 different platforms is new, which is not so for 350. Depending on BA exact needs and numbers of each model required, 787-10 / 777-300 combo may very well outweigh 350. Then again, if Boeing goes 787-10X, I don't get how 787-11X is a problem then...

As for "not even committed to less than 18 months before BA is to select it" - man, it's 18 months, not hours!

[Edited 2007-10-03 05:19:32]
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 11:59 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 67):
Last time I read that the Y3 will be slightly bigger than the B 747-8 and will be a double decker.

That's news to me. Last time I saw a double-decker proposal floating around BCA was the MD-12, which Boeing inherited from the merger with McDonnell-Douglas in 1997.
 
United Airline
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 12:00 pm

When Boeing launches the Y3 I guess all B 747-400 operators will order it. Some will place large orders even

My 1 cent
 
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SEPilot
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 3:50 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 67):

Eventually Boeing will have to come up with a B 777/747 replacement since both the B 747/777 cannot go on forever

This is my thinking as well.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 69):
Quoting United Airline (Reply 67):
Last time I read that the Y3 will be slightly bigger than the B 747-8 and will be a double decker.

That's news to me. Last time I saw a double-decker proposal floating around BCA was the MD-12, which Boeing inherited from the merger with McDonnell-Douglas in 1997.

I do not believe that Boeing is interested in building a full double decker. They sell too many freighters, and a double decker sucks as a freighter.
One consideration on the anemic VLA sales of recent years. Current VLA's do not offer substantially better CASM's than other options; as I understand it the 77W offers nearly as good CASM as the A380 and 748, while both the 787 and A350 are substantially better. Y3 would change that; it would almost certainly offer the best CASM available when it is introduced. While that was one of the big selling features of the 747 when it was introduced, the airlines quickly discovered that it was meaningless unless the plane was full. I don't think the airlines have forgotten it, but it still will sell some planes. I do not believe that Y3 will be as large as the A380; but it might in its largest iteration be as large as the 748.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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scbriml
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 4:51 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 57):
so it is possible we could see a repeat of the A340/777 saga

At that time Boeing had nothing between the 767 and the 747, so a new plane was "forced" on them. IMHO, the situation is different this time because they have at least three options -

Cheapest - wring every last ounce of performance out of the 77L & 77W, significantly reduce the cost and put off a "real" decision for a few years. A few year's grace with a 777 "warm-over" would give them a chance to see how the 748i does and to size Y3 for the best impact.

Medium cost - go ahead with -10 as currently proposed, promising -10HGW and -11HGW further along the road. I still see the challenge of the GEnx having sufficient growth to power the HGW versions as a significant issue. Likewise, I don't think the Trent 1000 can do it, but I bet RR could offer a bleedless Trent-XWB.

Expensive - launch an all-new Y3 to fill the gap between 787-9 and 748i (but, IMHO, with no overlap at the top end - would they really launch a successor to the 748i before it's even flown?)

Given the other work Boeing has on its plate right now, my bet is on the second option (but for me it only just pips the first depending just how much Boeing thinks they could improve the 777).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 63):
If Boeing launches a Y3, they will not launch a 787-10.

I strongly agree - they'd be squabbling over the same orders.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:39 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 72):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 63):
If Boeing launches a Y3, they will not launch a 787-10.

I strongly agree - they'd be squabbling over the same orders.

I would disagree; I see the 787-10 as a larger, medium range plane (about 325-350 seats) with Y3 starting slightly larger with long range, and going up to maybe 450 seats and 8000+NM range. There are a lot of routes that require a large pax capacity but don't require extreme range, and the 787-10 will work better for those than a heavier Y3. But if Y3 is built there will be no 787-10HGW or 787-11. I believe this is why Boeing has said that there will be a 787-10, but it will have the same wing and MTOW as the other 787's.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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scbriml
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:46 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 73):
450 seats and 8000+NM range

Haven't you just killed the 748i before it's even flown?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 5:52 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 73):
I see the 787-10 as a larger, medium range plane (about 325-350 seats) with Y3 starting slightly larger with long range, and going up to maybe 450 seats and 8000+NM range



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 74):
Haven't you just killed the 748i before it's even flown?

I just do not think the demand is there for a plane with ~400 seats in a "normal" airline configuration, even with nice CASM, "Zevzda's Law" not withstanding.

The 744's CASM was not terrible, yet it still lost out to the smaller 77W and A346. And the 748's CASM is even better, yet it too continues to lose out to the 77W now and the A350-1000 later.

[Edited 2007-10-03 10:52:28]
 
Carls
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 7:34 pm

Quoting RIX (Reply 54):
- reluctant now doesn't mean still reluctant in 18 months. Or 12 months. Or 3 months. We are not talking what A nd B are offering today - we are discussing round 2 of BA order.

The point here is the Boeing has not officially launched any 787-1000 . Airbus already did it. You are right, A350 is still on paper, but BA won't need it for tomorrow. So Airbus is in a good shape from my point of view.

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 62):
1) Most major carriers have selected the 787, and will opt to grow the fleet with 787-10's instead of introducing another type in the A35X

So 220+ orders and MOU are a significant backlog, much better than the 787-9 which is it's competitor, specially when we consider that the A350 is a 'paper' plane and the other one is already build or should I say assamblesd and dissambled, or whatever the status is on 787 number 01.
 
Leskova
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 7:50 pm

Ok... this might sound like a strange question, but where does all the supposed knowledge about Y3 come from? Does anyone have a link to any comments by anyone of at least some authority at Boeing where I can read, firsthand from someone that should know, that this project is actually being worked on?

Because, so far, I've heard things about this plane that no-one realls seems to know anything about here on a.net that would allow me to believe that it's going to be just about everything covered by today's B777, by the B747 and with the largest versions being even larger than the A380 - with some expecting it to be a BWB, others saying that, while it'll be a "standard" design it'll still be revolutionary (but without mentioning what's actually going to be revolutionary about it).

So... any links available? Or is all this Y3-talk completely based on what some would like Y3 to be?
Smile - it confuses people!
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 8:32 pm

Quoting Carls (Reply 76):
The point here is the Boeing has not officially launched any 787-1000 . Airbus already did it. You are right, A350 is still on paper, but BA won't need it for tomorrow. So Airbus is in a good shape from my point of view.

And since BA doesn't need them tomorrow, Boeing should also be in good shape (from my point of view) with the 787-10, even though it hasn't been launched yet. Big grin

Quoting Carls (Reply 76):
So 220+ orders and MOU are a significant backlog, much better than the 787-9 which is it's competitor...

Might want to double check those order sheets, sir. A350-800 orders stand at 82, while 787-9 orders stand at 142, so the 787-9 is closing in on a 2:1 sales advantage to date to her competition and is the one with "much better" sales.

Quoting Leskova (Reply 77):
Or is all this Y3-talk completely based on what some would like Y3 to be?

I can only speak for myself, so my talk is based on what I think Y3 should be based on how I see market trends over the next 25 years,
 
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SEPilot
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Wed Oct 03, 2007 11:48 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 74):

Haven't you just killed the 748i before it's even flown?

Perhaps, but the 748i will be available around 2010; Y3 won't be available before 2018 at the earliest. The 748i is clearly just an interim solution in any case.

Quoting Leskova (Reply 77):
Or is all this Y3-talk completely based on what some would like Y3 to be?

In a word, yes.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 75):
The 744's CASM was not terrible, yet it still lost out to the smaller 77W and A346. And the 748's CASM is even better, yet it too continues to lose out to the 77W now and the A350-1000 later.

My understanding is that the 77W and 346 both have better CASM than the 744, and the 748 is better, but not by a lot. If Y3 is to be successful, it would have to offer significantly better CASM than anything else, which it should be able to do.
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Revelation
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 12:28 am

Quoting Leskova (Reply 77):
So... any links available? Or is all this Y3-talk completely based on what some would like Y3 to be?

It is clear that Boeing has/had a Project Yellowstone with models Y1/Y2/Y3, and that Boeing doesn't speak too much about it. Anything we hear about it is via leaks from individual employees. One summary of it is on Wikipedia. You can follow the References on this page to read more about where the info came from.

So, it is/was a real project, but next to nothing is known about it. That leaves the a.net crowd to make it to be what they would like it to be, within certain bounds.
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RIX
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 12:51 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 78):
Quoting Carls (Reply 76):
The point here is the Boeing has not officially launched any 787-1000 . Airbus already did it. You are right, A350 is still on paper, but BA won't need it for tomorrow. So Airbus is in a good shape from my point of view.

And since BA doesn't need them tomorrow, Boeing should also be in good shape (from my point of view) with the 787-10, even though it hasn't been launched yet. Big grin

- yep, exactly. They are both in good shape, as there is enough time to offer it (for Boeing) and to build it (for Airbus, which is far away from any 350 having been built, and for Boeing, which did not even confirm HGW version).
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 4:50 am

Quoting Carls (Reply 76):
So 220+ orders and MOU are a significant backlog, much better than the 787-9 which is it's competitor, specially when we consider that the A350 is a 'paper' plane and the other one is already build or should I say assamblesd and dissambled, or whatever the status is on 787 number 01.

1) I don't think there are anywhere near 220 orders/MOUs for the A358
2) I wouldn't exactly call the A350 a paper plane anymore - I think some significant subassembly prototyping has been going on
3) Expect 787 02 to be flight ready before 01, and probably far sooner than you hope for
4) I stand by my assertion - the major operators have gone 787, and they will choose the larger 787 models as well. There are very few customers left that will order 50 or more 787s or A350s. The ones that spring to mind: EK and the US operators. A350 doesn't have a chance of winning the US carrier orders (my prediction).
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
kappel
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 7:57 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 82):
A350 doesn't have a chance of winning the US carrier orders (my prediction).

I think they still have a chance at UA. But IMHO DL and AA are a lock for Boeing. Of course NW could still go for the a350 to replace the 747, but the a330's will probably be around for a while knowing the history of NW. And CO is firmly in Boeing camp and they don't have any pressing need to replace widebodies with their new fleet and 787 order.
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montereytom
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 8:55 am

I just read in the latest "flightinernational" issue the A350XWB specs with derrated engine requirments ,I don't want to get into specific details about this, all I can see is A350-1000 service entry "Late 2015" .Considering that this is the version most airlines want why so late as opposed to mid-2013 and mid-2014 for the 900 and 800 versions respectively?
Anyone care to comment?
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scbriml
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 10:14 am

Quoting Montereytom (Reply 84):
I don't want to get into specific details about this, all I can see is A350-1000 service entry "Late 2015"Considering that this is the version most airlines want why so late as opposed to mid-2013 and mid-2014 for the 900 and 800 versions respectively?

Given Airbus's current firm orders and commitments for the A350, the timings look to be in the right order. Currently, the bulk are for -800s and -900s, with just 20 -1000s for QR so far.
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Carls
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 11:41 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 78):
Might want to double check those order sheets, sir. A350-800 orders stand at 82, while 787-9 orders stand at 142, so the 787-9 is closing in on a 2:1 sales advantage to date to her competition and is the one with "much better" sales.

Can you tell me for how long the A350-800 has been "on sale" , and how many orders the 787-9 has got since the A350 went "on sale".

Quoting Stitch (Reply 78):
Quoting Carls (Reply 76):
The point here is the Boeing has not officially launched any 787-1000 . Airbus already did it. You are right, A350 is still on paper, but BA won't need it for tomorrow. So Airbus is in a good shape from my point of view.

And since BA doesn't need them tomorrow, Boeing should also be in good shape (from my point of view) with the 787-10, even though it hasn't been launched yet.

Quoting Carls (Reply 76):
So 220+ orders and MOU are a significant backlog, much better than the 787-9 which is it's competitor...

Might want to double check those order sheets, sir. A350-800 orders stand at 82, while 787-9 orders stand at 142, so the 787-9 is closing in on a 2:1 sales advantage to date to her competition and is the one with "much better" sales.

I never said Boeing was not in a good shape. My point was that Airbus, even they are only showing a paper plane, is in a good shape against Boeing, which is a totally different statement than" better shape than Boeing"

About orders, you are right. I compared the A350 total orders against the 787-9 orders and that is not accurate.
 
Carls
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 11:56 am

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 82):
US operators. A350 doesn't have a chance of winning the US carrier orders (my prediction).

What about US Airways??? Isn't a USA airline?
Your post sound very familiar to those about US Airways canceling Airbus order and going with Boeing......Then US Airways order what everybody knows here at A.Net. They did not canceled the order, instead they increased it.
If the rest of USA airlines will order or not the A350 is something to be discussed in another opportunity.
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 12:19 pm

Quoting Carls (Reply 86):
Can you tell me for how long the A350-800 has been "on sale", and how many orders the 787-9 has got since the A350 went "on sale".

The A350 program was formally given permission to seek customers by the EADS Board on 10 December 2004. The 7E7 was given formal approval to seek customers by Boeing's Board on 16 December 2003.

So the 787-9 was on offer one year before the A350.

The first A350-800 order was secured four months after the first 787-9 order.

The first Airbus A358 order was secured on 21 December 2004 with Air Europa (whom have yet to reconfirm their order for the XWB model).

The first 787-9 sale was 2 for NZ on 24 August 2004.

The first A350-800XWB order was (likely) CASGC on 29 October 2006. By that date, Boeing had secured 85 787-9 orders.
 
Carls
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 6:53 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 88):
The first A350-800XWB order was (likely) CASGC on 29 October 2006. By that date, Boeing had secured 85 787-9 orders.

Let's see Stich:

At October 29, 2006 787-900 had 85 orders.
On 17 July 2006, at the Farnborough Air Show, Airbus announced that the redesigned aircraft would be called A350 XWB (Xtra Wide-Body). (Copied from Wikipedia)
So the A350-800 was launched in July 17, 2006 and from that date until today has : 82 Orders.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 78):
A350-800 orders stand at 82, while 787-9 orders stand at 142, so the 787-9 is closing in on a 2:1 sales advantage to date to her competition and is the one with "much better" sales.

So you just show us how the A350-800 has outsold the 787-900 in the same period of time, because since October 29, 2006 the 787-900 has gained 57 orders, while in the same period of time the A350-800 has gained 82 orders.
So "much better" expression sales apply to the A350-800 not to the 787-900.  Wink
Nice try!!!
 
Carls
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 6:55 pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A350

This is where I got the A350 information.
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 7:11 pm

Quoting Carls (Reply 89):
Nice try!!!

Because the A350 and 787 programs had multiple iterations, rather then try and skew the data to support one specific objective, I tried to be all-inclusive.

Quoting Carls (Reply 89):
So the A350-800 was launched in July 17, 2006 and from that date until today has : 82 Orders.

As long as Airbus continues to list as firm all orders for non-XWB A350-800s and A350-900s, the A350-800 and A350-900 date back to December 2004 and not July 2006.

Also, you asked how long they have been "on sale". They've been on sale since December 10, 2004 when Airbus formally allowed it to be offered for sale. If Airbus had formally canceled all firm orders for the non-XWB model in July 2006, rather then continue to carry them on the books as they work to convert them, I could accept a new definition for "on sale" as July 2006. But they did not, so the December 2004 date stands.

And that Airbus has continuously revised the specification of the plane should be irrelevant. Otherwise Boeing Boosters should be perfectly "legit" to compare 747-8I sales right up until first delivery against each individual A380-800 delivered between MSN003 and MSN024 since each of them is built to a unique specification, at least when it comes to wiring. And under that case, the 747-8I has 25 sales and the A380-800 has one (MSN003).  rotfl 
 
Carls
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 7:42 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 91):

Stich, if you are trying to make your point, I will understand you, but AFAIK there is only one A350 and that one is the current model. So I thought we do not need to put the XCN (Xtra complicated name) after 350.

So can you explain to me what the hell the A380-800 has to do with this?????? MG, I give up.

You won.  flamed 
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 8:15 pm

Quoting Carls (Reply 87):
What about US Airways??? Isn't a USA airline?

My post refers to major airlines that have not yet placed an order for either the 787 or the A350. If you look at the major airlines (by that I mean those that can definitely take 30 or more frames), which ones are left that have yet to order either aircraft? UA, AA, DL, EK. Of those four, EK is the only one at which Airbus has a fairly good shot.
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
Carls
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 8:31 pm

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 93):
My post refers to major airlines that have not yet placed an order for either the 787 or the A350. If you look at the major airlines (by that I mean those that can definitely take 30 or more frames), which ones are left that have yet to order either aircraft? UA, AA, DL, EK. Of those four, EK is the only one at which Airbus has a fairly good shot.

Ok. So Us is not a major airline, but they did order 92 AC from Airbus, so they are mid size.  banghead 
United Airlines is already Airbus customer and AFAIK they are very happy with their A320, so I don't see any reason why they should not be consider as a candidates for the A350.

AA and DL well I could agree with you, but I heard many times that BA won't order the A380 and they did order it, so even though will be hard, I would not say it is impossible. Specially since they were at Toulouse reviewing the A350.

NW another Mid or Small size airline, they are also happy with their Airbus fleet. So I don't see any reason why they did not going to order the A350 as a A333 replacement.

What about Qantas? and many other from China? those are the big target for the A350, not only the "major USA airlines"
 
EDDB
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 8:42 pm

I think the dilemma for Boeing at the moment is that whatever they'll do, they'll kill part of their own programs (and especially programs they just invested in)... Launching Y3 so early would more or less kill a possible 787-10, the 77W and more or less even the 748i! That's a lot of money you will have burned AND you'll have to spend a hell lot of money on Y3 as well! So let's pretend they'll stick to their original schedule and Y3 is earliest at the end of the next decade... That means they can still try to get ROI on the 77W and 748i and put their effort in the 787-10, -11, -12 or whatever some a.netters think this bird will be stretched to! That would leave Airbus in a strong position with the A350, especially the -900 and -1000!
But seriously, what's so bad about that? Boeing will make a fortune with the 787 as a 763, A300, A332, A343 maybe 772 replacement! Airbus will make a fortune with the A350 as a 772, 77W, 744, A340 replacement! Perfect situation! If they'll try to counteract every move and model the other one is promising, both A and B will be in a war they both can't win cause no one will be able to make the other one obsolete...
So I think Boeing will launch the -10 and upgrade the 777 and Airbus will stick with the A350-800 -900 and -1000, and both will be happy! Maybe that's too boring for some here on a.net but hey.... What do A and B care! It's about ROI and making money!
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Thu Oct 04, 2007 11:04 pm

Quoting EDDB (Reply 95):
So I think Boeing will launch the -10 and upgrade the 777 and Airbus will stick with the A350-800 -900 and -1000, and both will be happy! Maybe that's too boring for some here on a.net but hey.... What do A and B care! It's about ROI and making money!

It might very well work.

Airbus Aficionados want to believe the 777 will stop selling this month and all future orders will be A350s, but that is not going to happen, just as it did not when Boeing Boosters wanted to believe that the A330 would stop selling years ago when the 787 was launched.

Boeing should be able to secure at least a few hundred mildly-improved 77E/77/77W/77F orders in the next decade between top-ups to existing fleets (BA), existing 77E customers wanting something bigger or longer-legged (DL/SQ/CX), and new customers who need the "current best" and can't wait (completely) for the "next best" (QR/FX).

In such a scenario, a base 230t 787-10 would replace the 77E and serve as an excellent 77A, 77E, A343 and A333 replacement and should be able to score hundreds of orders, herself. A 3:2 or 5:3 sales advantage for the A350 would help recover the greater costs of that program while still ensuring a nice RoI, and the 787-10 and 777NG would both have low enough costs that they would not need as many sales to generate a nice RoI.
 
RIX
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Fri Oct 05, 2007 1:52 am

Quoting EDDB (Reply 95):
the dilemma for Boeing at the moment is that whatever they'll do, they'll kill part of their own programs (and especially programs they just invested in)

- same can be said for Airbus, killing entirely anything larger than 330-200, other than 380. Somehow, however, even 340-600 still sells, so I don't see how it is that big problem. As for "they just invested in" - 777 already has more than 1000 orders, 787 already has more than 700 orders. 77W already sold in good numbers for derivative. As for 748, while Boeing might hope it to be something more significant on passenger aircraft market than it is, money for freighter sales is exactly the same money.

And I really don't see how and why larger, heavier 787 will be a problem to build. Upgrading 777 is a nice way to go, but somehow Airbus does not upgrade 330. Whoever can explain me why "big" 350 is piece of cake while for 787 it's a part of "difficult dilemma" - please do so. While doing it, don't forget that 787 has several years advantage and may very well appear in its heavy version before any 350 is built, and that being 5 or so inches wider, 350 has same ability to be stretched, and no more. I have an impression that whoever already "decided" how Airbus becomes a preferable monopoly in what is currently is 340/777 market, forgets that base model of their competition is already built, and strongly believes that in size 350:787 is something like 777:767 or 380:747. It's not, guys.

Oh, and forget about Y3. One example of jumping to a highly questionable market is quite enough. Boeing refused to do it once, why would they do it this time.
 
EDDB
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:28 am

Quoting RIX (Reply 97):
- same can be said for Airbus, killing entirely anything larger than 330-200, other than 380.

Well of course! That's what the A350 is designed for! Not as a complementary plane to their existing aircraft family but as a substitution for their 330/340 family....

Quoting RIX (Reply 97):
As for "they just invested in" - 777 already has more than 1000 orders

That's why I only talked about the 77W, which sold very well, but will be ultimately dead as soon as Boeing starts talking about Y3. And I suppose GE would also be very unhappy if this should happen!

Quoting RIX (Reply 97):
And I really don't see how and why larger, heavier 787 will be a problem to build. Upgrading 777 is a nice way to go, but somehow Airbus does not upgrade 330. Whoever can explain me why "big" 350 is piece of cake while for 787 it's a part of "difficult dilemma" - please do so. While doing it, don't forget that 787 has several years advantage and may very well appear in its heavy version before any 350 is built, and that being 5 or so inches wider, 350 has same ability to be stretched, and no more. I have an impression that whoever already "decided" how Airbus becomes a preferable monopoly in what is currently is 340/777 market, forgets that base model of their competition is already built, and strongly believes that in size 350:787 is something like 777:767 or 380:747. It's not, guys.

Since I'm not an engineer I can only look at market reaction and build my opinion on that, and there are quite a few airlines now that ordered the 787/350 combo! Taking your point that the 787 can grow to anywhere the 350 does and fulfill every mission the 350 can and will enter the scene more or less at the same time would mean that all these airlines bought 2 different planes for the same mission... Highly doubtful, don't you think?
 
Carls
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RE: BA Considering Y3?

Fri Oct 05, 2007 11:13 am

Quoting RIX (Reply 97):
787 has several years advantage and may very well appear in its heavy version before any 350 is built

hoping boeing can get enough fastener to build it.  white 

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