The Next Round Of Skybus Destinations?

FWAERJ · Fri Oct 05, 2007 1:04 am

Well, there's some things that make you want to go "hmmm..." at times. And Skybus plans are one of them.

Here's some airports that I see on the Skybus route map in the near future, complete with closest major cities...
-COS as "Denver"
-GYY as "Chicago"... after all, they don't mention MKE as their Chicago city, despite MKE service. (Also might be a good focus city.)
-SFB as "Orlando"... why doesn't SX serve Sanford? Are they that afraid of WN at MCO? It still boggles my mind...
-IWA as "Phoenix"... hey, if Allegiant is starting it, so can Skybus.
-LAS as, well, "Las Vegas"
-SWF as "New York City"
-AUS (from their new ULCC terminal)
-ABE or ILG as "Philadelphia"

Any other cities, and any ideas of what might be next?

One last thought: As we all know, IND is building a new terminal, and the fate of IND's old terminal still hasn't been determined, IIRC. And SX is looking for new focus cities. Could SX get IND's old terminal, gut it, demolish part of it, and start a focus city sometime after the new terminal opens? Despite having every major LCC except NK and B6, plus an NW focus city, IND is still underserved for a city its size. Oh, and one of the big Skybus investors (Dispatch Printing Company) owns WTHR-TV, the NBC-TV affiliate in Indianapolis (one of the top-5 NBC affiliates in the nation, with the top-rated local newscast in the market).

DeltaAVL · Fri Oct 05, 2007 1:07 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
-ABE or ILG as "Philadelphia"

What about ACY as "Philadelphia"?

ERJ170 · Fri Oct 05, 2007 1:15 am

Quoting DeltaAVL (Reply 1):
What about ACY as "Philadelphia"?

I could see them opening North Philadelphia as PHL...

billreid · Fri Oct 05, 2007 1:26 am

Skybus has me very confused.
I believe route planning decisions are based on senior management shooting from the hip with NIL reseach backing it up.
Management can direct staff to open a new airport, but emperical research is required for sucess

They recently added two dailies to Punta Gorda from Columbus.
This is incredibly interesting considering the capacity exceeds the number of CMH pax flown into RSW and SRQ by a factor of two.

Therefore they will have to stimulate traffic by 200% into a tertiary airport with no conex traffic.

The really interesting point is that they assume that Ohio pax weren't coming to Florida already. Given that the passenger to population ratio in Florida triples the rest of the nation, there would be a need for an effective 600% stimulation of the market out of little CMH.

Reality is it can't be done. The demand cannot be stimulated at a profit.
$10 fares stimulate market, but they do not stimulate when the pricing steps up to $130 per segment.

quagmire123 · Fri Oct 05, 2007 2:52 am

Quoting BillReid (Reply 3):
Skybus has me very confused.
I believe route planning decisions are based on senior management shooting from the hip with NIL reseach backing it up.
Management can direct staff to open a new airport, but emperical research is required for sucess

They recently added two dailies to Punta Gorda from Columbus.
This is incredibly interesting considering the capacity exceeds the number of CMH pax flown into RSW and SRQ by a factor of two.

Therefore they will have to stimulate traffic by 200% into a tertiary airport with no conex traffic.

The really interesting point is that they assume that Ohio pax weren't coming to Florida already. Given that the passenger to population ratio in Florida triples the rest of the nation, there would be a need for an effective 600% stimulation of the market out of little CMH.

Reality is it can't be done. The demand cannot be stimulated at a profit.
$10 fares stimulate market, but they do not stimulate when the pricing steps up to $130 per segment.

I also question SX's management sometimes too with their route decisions. I feel like their blindly throwing darts a map sometimes and just seeing if the destination works....why else would they irresponsibly launch to Milwaukee going into winter, when another carrier already has multiple flights from CMH daily? The marketing department does nothing to promote these cities through their web site.....hell, the web sites of the airports they fly into are a joke...they look like they were designed by a junior high school kid.....most of the airport web sites have no mention of facilities, airport layout, or transportation services......currently, Punta Gorda only has Hertz rental car, and they aren't even open on Sundays! I get so sick of SX management saying people will still fly them because of the cheap fares...news flash, there are only a handful of those extremely cheap fares.....recently I saw on the local Columbus newscasts a segment on the best travel bargains of the week....guess what? No mention of SX! This was even on channel 4's newscast, an investor in SX! All the airlines they mentioned had you flying into the actual main destination airports for anywhere between $120-150 round trip! So if I had my choice of flying directly into the main airport, and being already in the heart of the city for the same, or even less money than SX that's flying two hours away to where I'd have to get a rental car.....why would I choose SX again?

itsnotfinals · Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:00 am

Quoting BillReid (Reply 3):
Skybus has me very confused.
I believe route planning decisions are based on senior management shooting from the hip with NIL reseach backing it up.
Management can direct staff to open a new airport, but emperical research is required for sucess

they seem to be keeping their planes very full . It's a little interesting that some very large companies invested 160 Million in SX yet Anet posters think they are irresponsilbe without ever seeing their actual business plan.

Quoting Quagmire123 (Reply 4):
This was even on channel 4's newscast, an investor in SX!

um...Channel 10 (owned by the Wolfe conglomorate ) is related to the parent company. No TV station actually invested in SX directly.

Channel 4 has no involvement.

Quoting Quagmire123 (Reply 4):
So if I had my choice of flying directly into the main airport, and being already in the heart of the city for the same,

you assume everyone is flying to go to the heart of the city.

itsnotfinals · Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:07 am

Quoting BillReid (Reply 3):
This is incredibly interesting considering the capacity exceeds the number of CMH pax flown into RSW and SRQ by a factor of two

http://www.faremeasure.com/Flights-C...umbus_Ohio-Fort_Myers_Florida.html

237 people a day to RSW at an average fare of 345.21 R/T

http://www.faremeasure.com/Flights-Columbus_Ohio-Sarasota_Florida.html

48 people a day to SRQ at an average fare of 289.79 R/T

so about 300 seat a day are flown at these higher prices.

2 flights a day on SX is 312 seats so that is not a 2X growth in the market.

there is plenty of indication that SX can generate a great amount of business with fares that will be 80% to 40% less than these averages.

[Edited 2007-10-04 20:16:38]

FlyDeltaJets87 · Fri Oct 05, 2007 3:11 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
SFB as "Orlando"... why doesn't SX serve Sanford? Are they that afraid of WN at MCO? It still boggles my mind...

Could it be Allegiant's presence at SFB?

STT757 · Fri Oct 05, 2007 1:06 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
ABE or ILG as "Philadelphia"

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
SWF as "New York City"

TTN would be a better choice for the Philly market, it's closer than ABE to Center City and it's closer to parts of Philly than ILG. Plus it's in a great area near Princeton NJ, I-95, Bucks County Pa etc..

Many folks don't realize this but TTN is also closer to Manhattan than SWF.

BOSSAN · Fri Oct 05, 2007 5:47 pm

Given SX's choices of PSM and CEF in New England, I wonder what other opportunities they would seek in airports that either are joint military/civilian use airports or were converted to civilian use after closure since the 1970's. Most of these airports see very little to no airline use and have extensive, well-built aviation facilities (except for terminals) and some are near large metropolitan areas.

Some of these have been mentioned often before, but I saw emphasizing the similarities between airports that are or have been air bases as interesting.

Stronger ossibilities:
BLV (St. Louis, MO); SBD (San Bernardino, CA/Los Angeles); RIV (Riverside, CA/Los Angeles); PBG (Plattsburgh, NY/Montreal); AZA (Williams, AZ/Phoenix); MQY (Smyrna, TN/Nashville); MHR (Sacramento, CA); SWF (Newburgh, NY/New York City); VPS (Valparaiso, FL); SFB (Orlando, FL; probably the most chosen of this class of airport)

Weaker possibilities:
ENV (Westover, UT); AEX (Alexandria, LA); 4SD (Reno, NV); BQN (Aguadilla, PR); MWH (Moses Lake, WA); BYH (Blytheville, AR/Memphis); MER (Merced, CA); VCV (Victorville, CA) PMD (Palmdale, CA); IAG (Niagara Falls, NY)

Unlikely due to community opposition or ownership:
NUQ (Mountain View, CA/San Jose); DOV (Dover, DE)

FWAERJ · Fri Oct 05, 2007 5:51 pm

Quoting FlyDeltaJets87 (Reply 7):
Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
SFB as "Orlando"... why doesn't SX serve Sanford? Are they that afraid of WN at MCO? It still boggles my mind...

Could it be Allegiant's presence at SFB?

Allegiant doesn't serve CMH-SFB, so I don't see your point. What I'm saying is that Skybus needs to serve an Orlando-area airport out of CMH (and possibly other focus cities as they pop up), as Orlando is far too popular of a destination to ignore. SFB would fit the bill, as SX tends to prefer alternative airports when possible.

However, WN flies 3 daily nonstops between CMH and MCO, as does DL Connection (Chautauqua). Maybe SX is afraid of getting in a possible fare war with Herb's canyon blue planes and the big red widget... there's already 548 seats daily on CMH-MCO, split between 3 WN 733/73Gs, 2 DL/RP ERJ-145s, and 1 DL/RP ERJ-135. Chances are that SX would throw at least two 156-seat A319s on CMH-SFB every day, boosting the number of seats daily between Columbus and Orlando to at least 860.

717-200 · Fri Oct 05, 2007 7:13 pm

How about KOLM Olympia, WA to serve the areas south of Seattle. They could call it Seattle-Portland like they call Bellingham, Seattle-Vancouver. Would the rumway at OLM (5501ft) be too short for sked pax A319 ops?

Indy · Fri Oct 05, 2007 10:53 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
Could SX get IND's old terminal, gut it, demolish part of it, and start a focus city sometime after the new terminal opens?

The old IND terminal will be going to that great big airport in the sky Big grin

There is no way they leave that terminal behind. It will be demolished and used for something else. That terminal is 40 years old (C concourse is 20 years old). It needs to be put down like an injured animal.

ScottB · Sat Oct 06, 2007 12:14 am

Quoting Itsnotfinals (Reply 6):
so about 300 seat a day are flown at these higher prices.

2 flights a day on SX is 312 seats so that is not a 2X growth in the market.

That's not how the numbers work. The numbers from faremeasure.com are taken from Table 6 of DOT's Consumer Air Fare Report, and they represent the totals for travel in both directions. The comparison is 275 passengers in both directions with 2 x 312 seats, or 624 seats being made available by Skybus.

itsnotfinals · Sat Oct 06, 2007 12:24 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 13):
That's not how the numbers work. The numbers from faremeasure.com are taken from Table 6 of DOT's Consumer Air Fare Report, and they represent the totals for travel in both directions. The comparison is 275 passengers in both directions with 2 x 312 seats, or 624 seats being made available by Skybus.

You are correct, I should have grabbed the DOT figures, it was late when I posted this.

At least I used the one way fare

I know form personal experience of being from Ohio and going to Florida a lot before I moved on to other things how many Ohio plates you see in Flordia during the snow bird season, these people will probably use SX to make a few trips more back and forth to see each other during the winter instead of the I-75 shuffle (IMHO)

I won't make that mistake again.
Thanks for pointing it out.

[Edited 2007-10-05 17:47:19]

SkyyMaster · Sat Oct 06, 2007 1:44 am

Quoting Bossan (Reply 9):
MQY (Smyrna, TN/Nashville);

Cross this one off your list. The city and airport have indicated they have no interest in commercial air service at Smyrna with BNA just 12 miles away. WN already flies BNA-CMH and would likely match any fares Skybus put up. Also, the airport is surrounded by housing on three sides and the NIMBY's have already organized an opposition committee based on this rumor alone. They b*tched when Regions Air was flying it's Saabs and Jetstreams in there for overnight mx and every year there are protestors at the gates at the annual air show. Not gonna happen.

billreid · Sat Oct 06, 2007 2:26 am

Quoting Itsnotfinals (Reply 6):
so about 300 seat a day are flown at these higher prices.

2 flights a day on SX is 312 seats so that is not a 2X growth in the market.

If you double the seats then aren't you doubling the market?????
So I guess you assume that everyone at RSW and SRQ will abandon 100% of their loyalty and rush over to Punta Gorda.
Again its Shooting from the Hip. Or do you assume thay do not plan on stilmulating market?

billreid · Sat Oct 06, 2007 2:32 am

Quoting Itsnotfinals (Reply 6):
there is plenty of indication that SX can generate a great amount of business with fares that will be 80% to 40% less than these averages.

Are you working their yield management?
Yes thay place ten seats in $10 bucket and probably 10 in the $40 Bucket. But when you get up to the $80 bucket you are charging the same as DL and WN.
SO my question to you is will they fly all their seats in the $10 and $40 buckets and ride quickly into the sunset. I think you have to logically admit that unless they have high priced buckets to offset the junk buckets they will fail. The wage laws still apply and they still have to pay for realestate and metal. Fixed costs are unavoidable.

So tell me where do you see them generating profits without stimulating medium priced buckets?

billreid · Sat Oct 06, 2007 2:36 am

This thread leads to a lack of understanding of basic cash flow principles. Skybus cannot open too many cities and end up losing money at too many it'll drain cash. They will need to temper growth to be successful.

itsnotfinals · Sat Oct 06, 2007 3:06 am

Quoting BillReid (Reply 17):
Yes thay place ten seats in $10 bucket and probably 10 in the $40 Bucket. But when you get up to the $80 bucket you are charging the same as DL and WN.

only 10 seat are at 10 dollars.

Skybus' business plan is to sell seats at 20% less then WN and they are doing an excellent job on yield management.

why is it bad to offer nonstop P2P at the same pirce another airline is selling as a connection flight or at a higher pirce?

RL757PVD · Sat Oct 06, 2007 5:02 am

I still say LAL will be an absolutely GOLD MINE if they can make it work.

LAL is 30-40 min from TPA and MCO, and LAL is just as close, if not closer, to Disney then SFB.

I dont know how politics would come into play for FRG, but FRG is a Part 139 certified airport.

HVN is also good if they can make it work off of a 5600 ft runway, thats a huge catchment area

ILG seems like a logical choice too.

RSWA330 · Sat Oct 06, 2007 2:24 pm

PGD was a great choice. I believe Delta serves RSW-CMH with two CRJ's a day. SRQ has no service to CMH. I see more than enough demand on that route. Also, FNT-RSW only has about 40 daily pax according to faremeasure and both FL and NW make that route work. As far as rental car companies go, PGD already has Hertz and Enterprise is going to be opening up soon. I'm sure Hertz will change their hours when the time comes. They were probably closed on Sundays because they had no business. With SX having three nonstops to PGD (2 CMH and 1 PSM) I'm sure they will be open on Sundays and I'm sure that they will add more cars. Skybus doesn't start flights for nearly two months. They still have time to get everything in order.

extspotter · Sat Oct 06, 2007 3:22 pm

How about Myrtle Beach?

We know its a small destination, but you can create passengers with the right fares, and with Hooters out of the way....

BOSSAN · Sat Oct 06, 2007 8:55 pm

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 15):
Not gonna happen.

Both community opposition and existing competition are good reasons why such service isn't practical. Thank you for pointing those out.

gregarious119 · Sat Oct 06, 2007 10:27 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 8):

TTN would be a better choice for the Philly market, it's closer than ABE to Center City and it's closer to parts of Philly than ILG. Plus it's in a great area near Princeton NJ, I-95, Bucks County Pa etc..

Many folks don't realize this but TTN is also closer to Manhattan than SWF.

I would have to put in my vote for either ABE or MDT. WN consistently has good loads of people CMH-PHL...meaning there must be loads of people that can't stand driving the turnpike. I know I can't. However, the delays coming out of PHL are getting worse with each month it seems.

SX could be sitting on a landmine if they chose the right CMH-philly area airport.

I could also see RDG or LNS as outside shots, as both have had limited commuter air service in the past.

0newair0 · Sun Oct 07, 2007 7:12 pm

Speaking of more destinations, does anyone know what the next focus city will be? I have seen some information, or misinformation that leads me to believe it will be "Boston".

quagmire123 · Sun Oct 07, 2007 8:50 pm

Quoting 0NEWAIR0 (Reply 25):
Speaking of more destinations, does anyone know what the next focus city will be? I have seen some information, or misinformation that leads me to believe it will be "Boston".

There's very strong indications that GSO is looking like the next focus city. GSO has been pushing hard for SX to set up shop there, and there is a nice maintenence hangar available as well. People are thinking Portsmouth might be it because of the extra flights from there to Florida starting this winter....but I think this is just to capture a lot of snowbirds as well as demand out of PSM has been high from day 1.....even to come to little ol' Columbus, Ohio.

Lexy · Sun Oct 07, 2007 8:54 pm

Quoting BOSSAN (Reply 23):
Both community opposition and existing competition are good reasons why such service isn't practical. Thank you for pointing those out.

Agreed. If they want to do anything from this market, they need to do it to markets that people WANT to fly to, not CMH. CMH has WN flights to here for the connection possiblities and probably nothing else. Maybe, just maybe the insurance business between the two cities plays a role in it too, but it's highly doubtful.

717-200 · Mon Oct 08, 2007 4:34 pm

Quoting Quagmire123 (Reply 26):
and there is a nice maintenence hangar available as well.

Whose mx hangar became available at KGSO?

FLYB6JETS · Mon Oct 08, 2007 4:46 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Thread starter):
-SFB as "Orlando"... why doesn't SX serve Sanford? Are they that afraid of WN at MCO? It still boggles my mind...

It's funny you mention that. I was just in Orlando for some B6 training last week and while I was driving along the 528 I saw a Skybus billboard advertising for Columbus. Maybe something is in the works.

Cubsrule · Mon Oct 08, 2007 5:55 pm

I think BLV might be a real strong possibility. It already has most (all?) of the infrastructure necessary and daily service might persuade the government to extend MetroLink (our light rail) over to BLV (it currently ends on the other side of Scott AFB). The problem is that there isn't much to draw from besides the St. Louis area, in contrast to a lot of SX's destinations, which draw from one metropolitan area primarily but also have others within a reasonable driving distance.

billreid · Mon Oct 08, 2007 7:30 pm

Quoting Itsnotfinals (Reply 19):
why is it bad to offer nonstop P2P at the same pirce another airline is selling as a connection flight or at a higher pirce?

Its fine to do that but it isn't realistic. Non-stop fares always end up to be less than conx fares for a wide variety of reasions.

I still think the rooting is loud enough. They do not need to add more flights at this point they need to solidify what they have and to connect the dots where the demand curve justifies doing so. Opening too many cities too fast has been the death of many an airline and doing the same here would not be good.

itsnotfinals · Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:28 pm

Quoting BillReid (Reply 31):
Its fine to do that but it isn't realistic. Non-stop fares always end up to be less than conx fares for a wide variety of reasions

um not really, usually connection fares are the same or more , please get some facts before make a post like this.

JFK-LAX for instance:

NON-stop 2 week advance $325 R/T

One-stop $336

(PFC's really add to a connection)

Airlines make MUCH better margin on non-stops because the actual RASM and CASM are in-line.

delta767 · Wed Oct 10, 2007 1:49 am

I think GSO is pretty much confirmed as the next focus city, just not released yet. Anyone know what routes they will start though or has that not been decided yet?

It's been mentioned FLL, but haven't heard anything else. Wonder if it will be as big as CMH or just a mini-focus city.

MCOflyer · Wed Oct 10, 2007 2:34 am

I think LAL would work also. In addition to that, I am thinking TLH might work.

Hunter

iowaman · Wed Oct 10, 2007 2:49 am

Some Ideas:

Minneapolis (BRD)
Las Vegas (IGM)
Phoenix (YUM)
Detroit (TVC)

Wink

itsnotfinals · Wed Oct 10, 2007 2:56 am

Quoting BillReid (Reply 31):
Its fine to do that but it isn't realistic. Non-stop fares always end up to be less than conx fares for a wide variety of reasions.

[quote=Iowaman,reply=35]Detroit (TVC)

I know your joking, but did you have to pick airports 4 hours from the nearest city? Not even WN does that.

gsoflyer · Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:07 am

Quote:
I think GSO is pretty much confirmed as the next focus city, just not released yet. Anyone know what routes they will start though or has that not been decided yet?

It's been mentioned FLL, but haven't heard anything else. Wonder if it will be as big as CMH or just a mini-focus city.

I'd love to see them open up GSO to ILG (Wilmington, DE). Short drive to Baltimore, where we used to have direct flights. Short drive to Philly, where US prices are high. Eastwind used to fly here to TTN successfully. Shuttle America flew here to TTN too, successfully.

I think ILG would have a very good Skybus destination. It is virtually an untapped area.

Outside of that. I've heard FLL and BDL. But that is it. I wonder how competing directly with Allegiant at FLL would work, or if they go to Fort Myers and compete with Allegiate for the Tampa market. I could also see non-daily to Biloxi, and flights to Portsmouth working as well.

But overall, I just think Wilmington, DE would be prime for Skybus.

Quoting 717-200 (Reply 28):
Whose mx hangar became available at kgso?

I don't know. Timco moved out of a bunch of building near the old Piedmont/US Airways hanger. I haven't seen Timco use this for any of the heavy maintenance, but that doesn't mean they don't. Or this could be the hanger that is the paint shop.

The Honda Hanger could also be open now that they are building the new offices, hanger and factory. Other than that, Tradewinds still uses their three hangers, Comair is still using the one it built, Cessna still uses it's hanger, Timco uses at least 3, probably 4.

I am not seeing where there is a MX hanger free now. But someone please fill me in.

bok269 · Fri Oct 12, 2007 3:39 am

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 35):
Las Vegas (IGM)

VGT Maybe?

FWAERJ · Fri Oct 12, 2007 5:01 pm

Quoting Bok269 (Reply 38):
VGT Maybe?

The runway is too short (5000', IIRC) to accomodate such a fully-packed A319 to CMH, especially with the hot conditions of Vegas. Keep in mind that BUR's main runway is over 1800' longer...

EXAAUADL · Fri Oct 12, 2007 5:29 pm

How about:

Concord, CA
Oceanside/Carlsbad, CA
Scottsdale, AZ
Sarasota, FL
Salem, OR
Monterey, CA
Rockford, IL but not to CMH make as a focus city
ISP,NY
Colorado Springs or Fort Collins, CO
Long Beach, CA
Greensboro, NC

itsnotfinals · Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:15 pm

Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 40):
Scottsdale, AZ

SDL will never get SX, IWA would

jetlanta · Sat Oct 13, 2007 1:26 pm

MLB

+Serves nearly 1m people in its own direct catchment area along 100 miles of Florida beaches.

+Those beaches today draw a significant number of inbound tourists and season residents. (Who use other airports today)

+Is an easy 70 miles door-to-door to Disney only a newly widened US-192.

+Has tremendous existing infrastructure

+Virtually no existing competition

+The airport is debt-free and has significant non-airline revenues which allow it to afford extremely low charges to carriers.

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