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SANFan
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SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sat Oct 06, 2007 10:41 pm

It appears that the SDCRAA may have just adopted (on October 4) an International Air Service Incentive Program!

http://www.san.org/documents/boardmeetings/board_agenda_item_21.pdf

(I'm not 100% sure that it has been approved but, having read the above staff report several times, it looks like it to me. I will try to verify the status early next week.)

I'm very happy that the folks who run Lindbergh have finally accepted the fact that incentives are pretty much mandatory these days in order to try to compete for the few new international routes that happen every year.

The SDCRAA folks seem to hope that this incentive package is competitive with those of other cities (they mention OAK, CLE, PDX, STL and SJC as "peer airport" locations with similar packages) as well as listing SLC, DEN, SEA, PHX, BWI, etc., as also competing for new intercontinental services.

The package includes typical Landing Fee Waivers, Exclusive-Use Rent Rebates, and Marketing Assistance for qualifying Trans-Oceanic Service (not including Mexico or the Caribbean) operated by either new cx or incumbents offering new intercontinental services (please note, CO and NW!)

In a related item at the meeting,

http://www.san.org/documents/boardmeetings/board_agenda_item_12.pdf

I notice that a contract has been approved to establish a CUTE check-in facility (in T2E where AM is currently located) and at gates 20, 21, and 22, as a pilot project, specifically mentioning "additional int'l airlines"!

I'm very encouraged by all of this! Maybe we will actually see some new (foreign) faces at Lindbergh in the next year or so. (And, I might add, I have no problem with any of our current tenants at SAN starting Europe or Asia flights either!)

bb
 
dl767captain
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 12:30 am

So what does this mean? Are they just trying to get airlines to start international flights? Have any airlines accepted?
 
flydreamliner
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 12:46 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 1):
So what does this mean? Are they just trying to get airlines to start international flights? Have any airlines accepted?

It's hard to get good payloads on intercontinental flights out of SAN with that runway.... i don't even know if that will get any takers. Maybe an A330-200 could do it... or a 767-200ER... otherwise it's probably a waiting game until 787. I know BA did it with a stop in PHX... but it's hard to get good payloads... and that's a problem. Also... LAX isn't so far away.
 
tootallsd
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 1:01 am

It is easy to say that LAX is not that far away but in reality its like 5 hours. That is the time lapse from when I leave my house until we are wheels up from LAX. Next Tuesday I go to Shanghai via Seoul on KE. I prefer the overnight departure. I'll leave the house at maybe 8PM for the Eagle flight up and then it will be 2AM or so before we are wheels up and out over the Pacific. Not to mention LAX is a bloody nightmare.
 
flydreamliner
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 1:45 am

Quoting Tootallsd (Reply 3):
It is easy to say that LAX is not that far away but in reality its like 5 hours. That is the time lapse from when I leave my house until we are wheels up from LAX. Next Tuesday I go to Shanghai via Seoul on KE. I prefer the overnight departure. I'll leave the house at maybe 8PM for the Eagle flight up and then it will be 2AM or so before we are wheels up and out over the Pacific. Not to mention LAX is a bloody nightmare.

Assuming that SAN's runway limits payload, and thus has to increase prices, how much more would you pay for the direct flight?
 
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SANFan
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 2:20 am

The point is, SAN is a big, underserved international market that several airlines possibly are interested in (despite the runway issues.) Now, hopefully, SAN will be playing on a more level playing field with other cities as far as ability to attract airlines looking for some financial help in starting a new intercontinental route. (In other words, if LH is ready to start new service on the US west coast and they are considering 3 different markets, say SEA, SAN and PHX, but will start only 2, until now, SAN offered no financial incentives so the choice would probably be pretty simple. Now, it might be a bit harder for them to decide.)

To me, it's a true indication that SAN is finally serious about trying to accommodate and promote increased service. (Of course there is still the issue of the limitations of Lindbergh's runway and terrain so we will have to wait and see how creative the airport and airline folks can get... and I remain hopeful!)

bb
 
FLY777UAL
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 2:36 am

The Customs and Border Protection people were told in a briefing two weeks ago (about future added service) that Virgin Atlantic would be touching down in April...non-stop from London.

F L Y 7 7 7 U A L
 
PSA727
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:10 am

The airport authority needs to find another location
with a longer runway, and they probably will not
have to offer incentives to start intercontinental service to S.D.

They obviously didn't listen to BA's excuse for pulling
out of the market. And with the cost of oil on the rise,
I think airlines would want to maximize the revenue
possible for each flight, and not fly with weight restrictions.

As for VS starting service in April, don't be too shocked
if it's a tag-on from their Vegas flight. I don't see how a
343 could do a reasonable take-off with a full payload
from that runway...and forget about a 346 or 744.
 
dl767captain
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:25 am

Quoting PSA727 (Reply 7):

this is new to me are u saying virgin atlantic is going to start flights out of SAN?
 
DCAYOW
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:44 am

Quoting FLY777UAL (Reply 6):
The Customs and Border Protection people were told in a briefing two weeks ago (about future added service) that Virgin Atlantic would be touching down in April...non-stop from London.

This is complete and utter fiction...trust me... they were probably speculating about Virgin America

[Edited 2007-10-06 20:49:56]
 
DCAYOW
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:48 am

Quoting PSA727 (Reply 7):
They obviously didn't listen to BA's excuse for pulling
out of the market. And with the cost of oil on the rise,
I think airlines would want to maximize the revenue
possible for each flight, and not fly with weight restrictions.

Weight restrictions weren't the reason for the routes closure. The nonstop flight started right before 9/11 - the pax and more importantly fares tanked. The cargo statements on the 777 from SAN are just not true, the T100s show BA carried more cargo from SAN than they did from LHR on the route.
 
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 10:56 am

Quoting FLY777UAL (Reply 6):
The Customs and Border Protection people were told in a briefing two weeks ago (about future added service) that Virgin Atlantic would be touching down in April...non-stop from London.

I remember hearing a couple of years ago, from 2 independent sources, that VS was preparing to enter the SAN market as soon as possible after BA vacated it. That time may be arriving.

I also have a very strong feeling (as I have stated previously on A.net) that the first half of 2008 will see SOMEONE starting intercontinental service between Lindbergh Field and Europe. Whether it's VS or not, I am confident that at least one cx will start service (and I'd bet heavily on London) and I would guess a March-April time-frame (in order to be well-settled in by summer!)

I would also be pretty sure that the incentive package, although not yet approved when the negotiations were going on earlier this year, has had something to do with this.

Finally, I would expect an announcement regarding the new service probably this month. (I think this is going to be a real good month for SAN air service announcements -- both domestic and international!  Wink )

Quoting DCAYOW (Reply 9):
This is complete and utter fiction...trust me... they were probably speculating about Virgin America

The timing isn't supportive of VX; they should arrive in SAN in either late 2007 or very early 2008.

bb
 
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 12:05 pm

By the way, the SD Union has a small article indicating that the Incentive Program was in fact approved on Thursday and is now in effect.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/b...ness/20071006-9999-1b6airport.html

bb
 
gsosbee
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 12:42 pm

With the weight penalities, the incentives will have to be massive. A better investment would be solving their airport problems, then chasing what will be very marginal flights.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 2:22 pm

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 4):
Assuming that SAN's runway limits payload, and thus has to increase prices, how much more would you pay for the direct flight?

SAN would be a 15-20% fare premium on a 787.

Quoting DCAYOW (Reply 10):
The cargo statements on the 777 from SAN are just not true, the T100s show BA carried more cargo from SAN than they did from LHR on the route.

If an aircraft can only carry x-cargo, then they will only carry x-cargo and they will therefore only book x-amount of cargo even if y-amount of cargo is available for carriage. The same applies to seats. If an aircraft is weight limited, so too are the seat bookings limited. You rely far to much on T-100 "sample data" which does not capture the payload penalties in terms of available seats unable to be sold or cargo capacity not available because it's simply raw data on pax and cargo counts. Furthermore, it is a 10% sample and hardly reliable. I find it incredibly disturbing the weight so many give T-100 data, which is often innacurate to begin with.

[Edited 2007-10-07 07:26:32]
 
cle757
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 2:24 pm

Maybe now we will get year-round CLE-SAN service.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:03 pm

Quoting DCAYOW (Reply 10):
Weight restrictions weren't the reason for the routes closure.

The standard max gross weight on that route is 620k. The MTOW at SAN is 560k. What fantasy land are you living in?
 
PanAm747
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:26 pm

Quote:
It's hard to get good payloads on intercontinental flights out of SAN with that runway.... i don't even know if that will get any takers. Maybe an A330-200 could do it... or a 767-200ER... otherwise it's probably a waiting game until 787. I know BA did it with a stop in PHX... but it's hard to get good payloads... and that's a problem. Also... LAX isn't so far away.

Exactly. There was a thread here recently on the rumor of "LH considering SAN" - they simply do not have the equipment to fly from SAN intercontinentally. Even with the 787 and A350 program (and whichever LH chooses), those are YEARS off, and they will probably be utilized on higher yielding routes elsewhere.

Quote:
It is easy to say that LAX is not that far away but in reality its like 5 hours. That is the time lapse from when I leave my house until we are wheels up from LAX.

Agreed, however, it is still the magnet from which all of California from between 36 degrees and 32 degrees north latitude relies, regardless of how far away it is. Bakersfield relies on "Airport Bus Of Bakersfield" (which I wish I had invested in years ago!!), and some San Diego residents are using Amtrak to L.A. Union Station and then the shuttle bus that runs to LAX.

Quote:
The airport authority needs to find another location with a longer runway, and they probably will not have to offer incentives to start intercontinental service to S.D.

That will NEVER happen. Ever. You will see George W. Bush serving a third term - and the Dixie Chicks performing as honored guests - before you see San Diego get a new airport.

Now, as for an airline coming in to SAN, let's point out a few facts - it is not really cost effective to start a new station at SAN, especially when that same plane could be utilized to provide extra service up the road at LAX. Ask BA about this. Second, one must have local feed at both ends with premium traffic to pay for the plane - SAN could do this, but U.S. government rules require American traffic to fly American carriers. BA and any other airline lose out on this market. And finally, in BA's case, I believe that AAdvantage members could not accrue miles on the SAN-LHR route.

SAN is bursting at the seams as it is - AC can't even schedule a RON flight YYZ-SAN due to gate space limitations, so SAN flyers are served by a mid-afternoon departure to YYZ, too late to connect with most international departures from Toronto. Perhaps when T2's extra gates get built, but after that, it's a finite limit number of flights. C'est la vie.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sun Oct 07, 2007 6:42 pm

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 17):
Exactly. There was a thread here recently on the rumor of "LH considering SAN" - they simply do not have the equipment to fly from SAN intercontinentally. Even with the 787 and A350 program (and whichever LH chooses), those are YEARS off, and they will probably be utilized on higher yielding routes elsewhere.

You are exactly right. If payload were not an issue, then incentives would not be required. In addition, if the payload were not an issue, Lindbergh would have service to every major hub in Europe, Japan and Manila right now and the need for a new airport would not be as large an issue in the short term (2030) because of the vast number of International passengers that would be able to shift from Domestic flights to Non-Stop International flights which would substantially improve net domestic capacity. It would be more a 2040-2050 issue. Not to mention the elimination of about 80% of the commuter flights.

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 17):
it is not really cost effective to start a new station at SAN, especially when that same plane could be utilized to provide extra service up the road at LAX

Especially when the revenue generation created by payload capability increase is vastly superior to what is capable at SAN.

Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 17):
Second, one must have local feed at both ends with premium traffic to pay for the plane - SAN could do this, but U.S. government rules require American traffic to fly American carriers. BA and any other airline lose out on this market.

Open skies and the big three alliances of One World, Skyteam and Star will eliminate this long term. But teh issue is what you can carry vs. what you should be able to carry given an aircraft and a route.
 
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SANFan
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:46 am

OK all you "negative Nellys" (I loved it when my 2nd grade teacher said that.  Wink )

There is no question that those of you (and you know who you are!) pointing out the inadequacies of Lindbergh concerning present (and future) aircraft are correct. The days of straight-forward n/s intercontinental service from Lindbergh without payload or financial penalties are still in the future -- if they ever arrive.

However, at least the SDCRAA is trying to at least increase the possibilities of something happening. If anyone has looked at the document of the Incentive Program, you know that, what they have termed "triangular" operations, will also qualify for the incentives. (I prefer the term "circle trip" but it's their program so they get to use their terms!  Wink ) They use examples like DUB-SAN-SFO-DUB and SEL-SAN-LAS-SEL; I would also think something like, oh, MNL-SAN-HNL-MNL might be applicable. Also, it appears that a domestic tag-on would not qualify, e.g., LHR-LAS-SAN-LAS-LHR or FRA-PHX-SAN-PHX-FRA; most state that this is economically unfeasible and unlikely to happen these days anyway (including those at SDCRAA.)

I can't help but feel that the folks at SDIA must have reasons for bothering to come up with this program if it is in fact completely ridiculous to think there might be some takers. If nothing else, it might enable a few cx to at least try something creative for a year. And just maybe somebody will figure out some way to make it successful! Perhaps the incentives won't be enough to sway the decision for any new service our way but it doesn't appear that it will cost the airport anything by just having it sitting on the table.

I get the idea that the airport folks are optimistic that something good will come of this and I shall continue to applaud them for (finally) trying to get in the ring with the heavyweights.

bb
 
SANMAN66
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:57 am

Quoting SANFan (Reply 5):
despite the runway issues.)

I really don't believe it's solely the runway at SAN that's keeping all the foreign carriers away,as many believe.If Lindbergh
had a 12,000 foot runway without Point Loma,I don't think all the foreign airlines would be climbing all over each other
trying to serve this area. There are plenty of US airports with long runways that have no international service.That where those incentive programs the SDCRAA is proposing comes in. The airport officials at SAN were never really competing to lure international service as they are doing now.

Quoting DCAYOW (Reply 10):
Weight restrictions weren't the reason for the routes closure.

BA served this area for eight years before pulling out.I remember when they started with a DC-10,which they later switched over to the 744,until finally a nonstop 777.If the runway was such an issue, BA would not have lasted as long as they did,and this was the second time they served this area.

Quoting PSA727 (Reply 7):
don't be too shocked
if it's a tag-on from their Vegas flight.

If any foreign airline uses SAN as a tag-on,it will still be considered a success. If both VS and PR served this area as tag-ons or one stops,It's still better than nothing. If the airlines have aircraft that's too large,there's still airlines with compatible aircraft that can serve this area. What about Zoom Airlines,or Maxjet?

Oh, on a sidenote.In the early 80's when UA was flying a 747 from SAN-HNL,via LAX,a SAN airport official was quoted as saying that the reason the airlines were not flying 747's regularly out of SAN was because of market demand,and not the length of the runway.He also said if there was a market for 747's they would.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:35 pm

Quoting SANMAN66 (Reply 20):
really don't believe it's solely the runway at SAN that's keeping all the foreign carriers away,as many believe.If Lindbergh
had a 12,000 foot runway without Point Loma,I don't think all the foreign airlines would be climbing all over each other
trying to serve this area.

No, but a rather large handful of them would be.

Quoting SANMAN66 (Reply 20):
There are plenty of US airports with long runways that have no international service.

Consider San Diego's company as a large hub commerical service airport:

Atlanta (Hub)
Chicago/O'Hare (Hub)
Los Angeles (Hub)
Dallas/Fort Worth (Hub)
Denver (Hub)
Las Vegas (Hub)
New York/Kennedy (Hub)
Phoenix (Hub)
Houston/Bush (Hub)
Newark (Hub)
Detroit (Hub)
Minneapolis (Hub)
Orlando (Hub)
San Francisco (Hub)
Miami (Hub)
Philadelphia (Hub)
Charlotte (Hub)
Seattle (Hub)
Boston (Hub/Gateway)
New York/La Guardia (Secondary Range Limited Airport)
Washington/Dulles (Hub)
Baltimore (Secondary Airport)
Salt Lake City (Hub)
Fort Lauderdale (Secondary Airport)
Honolulu (Hub)
Tampa (non-Hub)
Washington/Reagan (Secondary Range Limited Airport)
Chicago/Midway (Secondary Runway Range Limited Airport)
San Diego (Primary Independent Airport)
Cincinnati (Hub)

Quoting SANMAN66 (Reply 20):
If the runway was such an issue, BA would not have lasted as long as they did,and this was the second time they served this area.

With the exception of the 777 operation, the DC-10/747 was a tag-on operation due to weight restrictions. The 777 later failed under those restrictions.
 
FCAFLYBOY
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Mon Oct 08, 2007 2:43 pm

So who does everyone think will start up a flight to europe then?
given that this seems a very tight market to operate in?
 
DCAYOW
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Mon Oct 08, 2007 3:52 pm

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 14):
Furthermore, it is a 10% sample and hardly reliable.

T100 is not sample data (it's a 100% dataset), I think you were referring to DB1B here, but I didn't use that as a basis for my assumption. I have also validated my T100 statement with historical weight reports, so you can choose to believe it or not.

My only point was that people tend to ascribe one sole reason for the route's closure and to say that BA left with the refrain "if only we could carry more cargo" is false. The fact that the fare/revenue and passenger environment changed after 9/11 second gulf war was probably the defining factor in the route's closure.

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 18):
You are exactly right. If payload were not an issue, then incentives would not be required.

I suppose this is why Dallas, Seattle, Denver, and Portland have all instituted incentive programs for international flights.
 
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calpsafltskeds
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Mon Oct 08, 2007 3:55 pm

The incentive program has limitations so that airlines flying to Europe must be non-stop or a round robin trip. I would think something like Europe-SAN-ONT-Europe would make most sense with an aircraft such as a 763ER as it would introduce service to two markets and the SAN-ONT segment is short. Unfortunately, all passengers would have to clear customs in SAN, the groundstop would be substantial and with the international leg starting in ONT, the groundstop would need major fueling. Catering could be done in SAN to keep the ONT stop to a minimum. Could the airline see if ONT is willing to subsidize the new service as well?

As for non-stop service with other aircraft, the 787 will have weight restrictions and there have been discussions that the 772LR could make it out of SAN with a good payload. The question is who will expend a 787-8/9 or a 772LR to fly a SAN operation when longer, more profitable routes are available?
 
SANMAN66
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Mon Oct 08, 2007 9:56 pm

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 21):
Atlanta (Hub)
Chicago/O'Hare (Hub)
Los Angeles (Hub)
Dallas/Fort Worth (Hub)
Denver (Hub)
Las Vegas (Hub)
New York/Kennedy (Hub)
Phoenix (Hub)
Houston/Bush (Hub)
Newark (Hub)
Detroit (Hub)
Minneapolis (Hub)
Orlando (Hub)
San Francisco (Hub)
Miami (Hub)
Philadelphia (Hub)
Charlotte (Hub)
Seattle (Hub)
Boston (Hub/Gateway)
New York/La Guardia (Secondary Range Limited Airport)
Washington/Dulles (Hub)
Baltimore (Secondary Airport)
Salt Lake City (Hub)
Fort Lauderdale (Secondary Airport)
Honolulu (Hub)
Tampa (non-Hub)
Washington/Reagan (Secondary Range Limited Airport)
Chicago/Midway (Secondary Runway Range Limited Airport)
San Diego (Primary Independent Airport)
Cincinnati (Hub)

A couple of examples of airports with long runways without Int'l service would include SJC,and ONT. SLC is just now getting ready for a SLC-CDG flight via DL.What about OAK? I've been hearing about an airline called Oasis Hong Kong
starting service there,but I'm also hearing that the flights are flying out of SFO,but listed as OAK.Most of those airports
you listed above are using incentives to attract more service.The airlines are not approaching them.A prime example would be DEN.That airport is enormous with several long,unobstucted runways,but only served by BA and LH.If airport
size and runways were the case.There would be just as many Int'l flights as LAX,JFK,or ORD flying there. As I repeated before,SAN desperately needs a new airport,but right now, Lindbergh is all we have to work with for now.If all we can get are tag-ons,or "round robin" flights,then the SDCRAA did their job.We'll take it any way we can.However,the "round robin" flights sound like an attractive alternative to nonstop flights.

[Edited 2007-10-08 15:03:59]
 
reality
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Tue Oct 09, 2007 2:11 am

Quoting SANMAN66 (Reply 25):
SLC is just now getting ready for a SLC-CDG flight via DL.What about OAK? I've been hearing about an airline called Oasis Hong Kong
starting service there,but I'm also hearing that the flights are flying out of SFO,but listed as OAK.

Oasis Hong Kong has not made it clear if they are coming to OAK or SFO. At first they said OAK, then they suggested it might be SFO, which may make more sense if SFO gives them a good INCENTIVE (the subject of this post)--which they might since the international terminal there is somewhat underused. Of course maybe their service to Vancouver and London are not doing too well, and they won't be coming to California at all. They only have a few 747s, some from Singapore, and apparently some from ANA (and a few more to be delivered). Having international service from OAK is not a big deal since SFO is so close.

The only international flights from OAK are to GDL, Leon, and Zacatecas on Mexicana, San Salvador on Taca (beginning next month), and sometimes seasonal service to the Azores. On another note, OAK and SAN were #1 and #3 respectively in on-time performance, with LAX at #5.

Ranking of Major Airport On-Time Arrival Performance Year-to-date through June 2007

Rank January 1 - June 30, 2007 %
1 Oakland, CA (OAK) 80.41
2 Salt Lake City, UT (SLC) 80.09
3 San Diego, CA (SAN) 78.77
4 Chicago, IL (MDW) 77.69
5 Los Angeles, CA (LAX) 77.66
6 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) 77.29
7 Houston, TX (IAH) 77.28
8 Baltimore, MD (BWI) 77.16
9 Atlanta, GA (ATL) 76.97
10 Las Vegas, NV (LAS) 76.90
…according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS)
 
lhpdx
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Tue Oct 09, 2007 3:05 am

I hope this new incentive program works out for San..It seem to be working well in both PDX and SEA.......
 
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SANFan
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Tue Oct 09, 2007 3:25 am

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 24):
The incentive program has limitations so that airlines flying to Europe must be non-stop or a round robin trip. I would think something like Europe-SAN-ONT-Europe would make most sense with an aircraft such as a 763ER as it would introduce service to two markets and the SAN-ONT segment is short.

ONT has been mentioned before (by Coronado990 for one) as a good circle-trip inclusion between SAN and some intercontinental destinations. However, even though FRA-SAN-ONT-FRA would qualify for the incentives, I don't know that there is a large enough European market at ONT but maybe that wouldn't matter. (Just maybe this is one of those "creative" solutions to the SAN issues that might be tried since the incentives will now reduce the costs of serving SAN.)

You also made a good point about maybe ONT subsidizing such a service as well? Anyone out there know if ONT happens to have an incentive program in place?

Quoting SANMAN66 (Reply 20):
If Lindbergh had a 12,000 foot runway without Point Loma,I don't think all the foreign airlines would be climbing all over each other trying to serve this area.

I sure can't agree with you there, SANMAN' Keep in mind that, per the SDCRAA, "SAN is the largest US market without n/s service to Europe." They also point out that 559 pax per day fly from SAN to Europe (one way) and another 52/day San Diego originators fly out of LAX; that's over 600 people per day!

SAN-to-Asia is the 3rd largest market in the US without n/s service (behind BOS and just behind MCO) with 265 pax per day each way plus another 152 that leave from LAX.

They also state that "At least 3 intl airlines are considering SAN within the 2008-10 scheduling timeframe." Establishing n/s service from Lindbergh to London is the SDCRAA's first priority and I think we will see very soon that that goal is about to be met (and I'm sure the brand new incentive package hasn't hurt!)

I don't know about "climbing all over each other" but I think, with the incentives, there will be a lot more than 3 interested cx very soon; how many will actually start, of course, is the big question.  scratchchin 

bb
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Tue Oct 09, 2007 2:44 pm

Quoting DCAYOW (Reply 23):
I suppose this is why Dallas, Seattle, Denver, and Portland have all instituted incentive programs for international flights.

In terms of O&D, SAN spanks all of them. In fact, SAN spanks most of the top 30 US airports in terms of O&D. High level O&D is what makes the service viable and is precisely why with a longer runway (and no terrain), SAN would have a significant level of International traffic (about 1-1.5 MAP). Furthermore, your T-100 does not capture connective flows. It is a poor source of data because of its limitations. Airlines rely on this data to develop new markets and it is precisely why so many markets fail.

[Edited 2007-10-09 07:53:45]
 
eva777sea
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:18 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 29):
In terms of O&D, SAN spanks all of them. In fact, SAN spanks most of the top 30 US airports in terms of O&D. High level O&D is what makes the service viable and is precisely why with a longer runway (and no terrain), SAN would have a significant level of International traffic (about 1-1.5 MAP). Furthermore, your T-100 does not capture connective flows. It is a poor source of data because of its limitations. Airlines rely on this data to develop new markets and it is precisely why so many markets fail.

SEA, DEN, and DFW all have more O&D passengers than the total number of pax that go through SAN. Check your facts.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:29 am

Quoting EVA777SEA (Reply 30):
SEA, DEN, and DFW all have more O&D passengers than the total number of pax that go through SAN. Check your facts.

Says the ever innacurate T-100 Data. Or is it Eclat that claims all three of those airports are better than 70% O&D? Get a data miner.

[Edited 2007-10-11 04:39:20]
 
gsosbee
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:20 pm

The pure population numbers do not support Boeing7E7's asertion, but because most statistical analysis depends greatly on the question that is being asked, his facts could be correct. What cannot be overlooked however, is that even if SAN has more O&D than SEA, DEN and DFW, the fact is that no airline sees that as an advantage. If there was money to be made, someone will be there to make it.

LAX and SFO have a lock on California international traffic. All international airways go through one of these two hub airports. No one is going to add international flights from a non-hubbed airport.
 
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SANFan
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 10:01 am

Quoting Gsosbee (Reply 32):
The pure population numbers do not support Boeing7E7's asertion, but because most statistical analysis depends greatly on the question that is being asked, his facts could be correct. What cannot be overlooked however, is that even if SAN has more O&D than SEA, DEN and DFW, the fact is that no airline sees that as an advantage. If there was money to be made, someone will be there to make it.

Sorry but I couldn't let this post go un-answered! There is no question that the traffic is available in SAN: as per the SDCRAA's figures, some mentioned in my reply 28 above, over 800 pax per day currently fly out of Lindbergh Field to intercontinental destinations, plus about another 200 each day who show up in the stat's as LAX departures.

The problem is the Lindbergh topography that has made the currently available aircraft financially unfeasible for profitable operations of overseas (departing) flights. Also, in the past, SAN believed that incentives were not necessary to make Lindbergh a competitive player in the modern aviation arena. The latter problem has now (hopefully) been fixed; the former will be at least diminished by the newly-arriving generation of airplanes.

As long is the incentives are truly competitive and aircraft and creativity help make flying profitable out of the soup bowl in which Lindbergh Field sits, I think there is little doubt that the major international cx (and some of the less major ones as well, will be very anxious to dip into that untapped international market that exists in San Diego (including millions in Northern Baja, Mexico.) While, btw, helping reduce the growing congestion at LAX and other existing gateway cities.

Quoting Gsosbee (Reply 32):
LAX and SFO have a lock on California international traffic. All international airways go through one of these two hub airports. No one is going to add international flights from a non-hubbed airport.

I imagine a few years ago there were many making similar statements about PDX, substituting "SEA" for "LAX and SFO" and "Pacific Northwest" for "California". Those comments would have to have been prior to, let's see, the LH PDX-FRA flight start-up, the NW PDX-NRT n/s and now, oh yeah, the NW n/s to AMS from PDX starting next year... (And there are certainly other similar examples around the country, and the globe.)

bb
 
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SANFan
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 10:03 am

Quoting Gsosbee (Reply 32):
The pure population numbers do not support Boeing7E7's asertion, but because most statistical analysis depends greatly on the question that is being asked, his facts could be correct. What cannot be overlooked however, is that even if SAN has more O&D than SEA, DEN and DFW, the fact is that no airline sees that as an advantage. If there was money to be made, someone will be there to make it.

Sorry but I couldn't let this post go un-answered! There is no question that the traffic is available in SAN: as per the SDCRAA's figures, some mentioned in my reply 28 above, over 800 pax per day currently fly out of Lindbergh Field to intercontinental destinations, plus about another 200 each day who show up in the stat's as LAX departures.

The problem is the Lindbergh topography that has made the currently available aircraft financially unfeasible for profitable operations of overseas (departing) flights. Also, in the past, SAN believed that incentives were not necessary to make Lindbergh a competitive player in the modern aviation arena. The latter problem has now (hopefully) been fixed; the former will be at least diminished by the newly-arriving generation of airplanes.

As long is the incentives are truly competitive and aircraft and creativity help make flying profitable out of the soup bowl in which Lindbergh Field sits, I think there is little doubt that the major international cx (and some of the less major ones as well, will be very anxious to dip into that untapped international market that exists in San Diego (including millions in Northern Baja, Mexico.) While, btw, helping reduce the growing congestion at LAX and other existing gateway cities.

Quoting Gsosbee (Reply 32):
LAX and SFO have a lock on California international traffic. All international airways go through one of these two hub airports. No one is going to add international flights from a non-hubbed airport.

I imagine a few years ago there were many making similar statements about PDX, substituting "SEA" for "LAX and SFO" and "Pacific Northwest" for "California". Those comments would have to have been prior to, let's see, the LH PDX-FRA flight start-up, the NW PDX-NRT n/s and now, oh yeah, the NW n/s to AMS from PDX starting next year... (And there are certainly other similar examples around the country, and the globe.)

bb
 
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SANFan
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 6:53 pm

Quoting Gsosbee (Reply 32):
The pure population numbers do not support Boeing7E7's asertion, but because most statistical analysis depends greatly on the question that is being asked, his facts could be correct. What cannot be overlooked however, is that even if SAN has more O&D than SEA, DEN and DFW, the fact is that no airline sees that as an advantage. If there was money to be made, someone will be there to make it.

Sorry but I couldn't let this post go un-answered! There is no question that the traffic is available in SAN: as per the SDCRAA's figures, some mentioned in my reply 28 above, over 800 pax per day currently fly out of Lindbergh Field to intercontinental destinations, plus at least another 200 each day who show up in the stat's as LAX departures.

The problem is the Lindbergh topography that has made the currently available aircraft financially unfeasible for profitable operations of overseas (departing) flights. Also, in the past, SAN believed that incentives were not necessary to make Lindbergh a competitive player in the modern aviation arena. The latter problem has now (hopefully) been fixed; the former will be at least diminished by the newly-arriving generation of airplanes.

As long is the incentives are truly competitive and aircraft and creativity help make flying profitable out of the soup bowl in which Lindbergh Field sits, I think there is little doubt that the major international cx (and some of the less major ones as well, will be very anxious to dip into that untapped international market that exists in San Diego (including millions in Northern Baja, Mexico.) While, btw, helping reduce the growing congestion at LAX and other existing gateway cities.

Quoting Gsosbee (Reply 32):
LAX and SFO have a lock on California international traffic. All international airways go through one of these two hub airports. No one is going to add international flights from a non-hubbed airport.

I imagine a few years ago there were many making similar statements about PDX, substituting "SEA and YVR" for "LAX and SFO" and "Pacific Northwest" for "California". Of course those comments would have had to have been made prior to, let's see, the start up of the LH PDX-FRA flight, also the NW PDX-NRT n/s and now, oh yeah, the NW n/s to AMS from PDX starting next year... (And there are certainly other similar examples around the country, and the globe.)

bb
 
gsosbee
Posts: 365
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 7:16 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 33):
As long is the incentives are truly competitive and aircraft and creativity help make flying profitable out of the soup bowl in which Lindbergh Field sits, I think there is little doubt that the major international cx (and some of the less major ones as well, will be very anxious to dip into that untapped international market that exists in San Diego (including millions in Northern Baja, Mexico.) While, btw, helping reduce the growing congestion at LAX and other existing gateway cities.

Good discussion but reality will dictate the progress (if any.) If any airline thought they could make money flying internationally out of SAN, we would not be having this discussion. Whether this is due to an inadequate runway; lack of equipment; etc., if the economics worked there would be international flights now.

Things do change, and hopefully for SAN someone will figure out a way, but in the meantime, public money should be spent curing the airport problem (which serves all of the people) rather than artifically creating a situation that only serves a few (international travelers.)
 
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SANFan
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 8:02 pm

Quoting Gsosbee (Reply 34):
Things do change, and hopefully for SAN someone will figure out a way, but in the meantime, public money should be spent curing the airport problem (which serves all of the people) rather than artifically creating a situation that only serves a few (international travelers.)

However, as been mentioned many times before (I know '7E7 has stated it many times), all of these intl travellers from SAN now are tying up seats on domestic flights while they fly to their intl gateway to board the overseas flights; those are seats that could be used for purely domestic travel. Or how about the many intl travellers filling up all those pesky little turboprops, flying all day long back and forth to LAX and tying up valuable runway time and air space.

Finally, there is really no public money being spent on the Incentive Program; the financing angle is discussed in the Program details at the link I provided in the TO. (Neither the San Diego tax payers nor the City of San Diego, or any other entity other than the SDCRAA itself, are directly impacted.)

As long as there are organizations willing and able to do studies, San Diego will keep paying them to keep studying things regarding a new airport. There seems to be no shortage of money for that (useless) purpose!

(Nice talking with you, 'bee.)

bb
 
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Coronado990
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 8:06 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 33):
As long is the incentives are truly competitive and aircraft and creativity help make flying profitable out of the soup bowl in which Lindbergh Field sits, I think there is little doubt that the major international cx (and some of the less major ones as well, will be very anxious to dip into that untapped international market that exists in San Diego

I have a gut feeling one of the "lesser ones" is going to be Icelandair using SAN as the Southern California gateway instead busy LAX. Keflavik I believe is within reach from SAN without too much of a payload restrictions, if any. We'll see.
 
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LAXintl
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 8:14 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 28):
You also made a good point about maybe ONT subsidizing such a service as well? Anyone out there know if ONT happens to have an incentive program in place?

Not directly a subsidy program, however LAWA does have significantly reduced fee's at ONT compared to LAX and also is willing to thrown in print and radio advertising for new services such as they have done with ExpressJet.

Interestingly, Maxjets original business plan when it was called Skylink was to operate STN-ONT service with all economy 763s in addition to NY and IAD-Europe flights.
 
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SANFan
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 8:54 pm

Quoting Coronado990 (Reply 36):
I have a gut feeling one of the "lesser ones" is going to be Icelandair using SAN as the Southern California gateway instead busy LAX. Keflavik I believe is within reach from SAN without too much of a payload restrictions, if any. We'll see.

My gut keeps telling me things too, '990, but usually a Zantac or 2 takes care of that!  Smile Actually, my gut mentions other "lesser ones" but Icelandic is an interesting idea; do you know in fact that they are looking to land in So Cal somewhere? (It seems long overdue, that's for sure.)

In any case, with the incentive package now in effect, I hope we see more airlines starting to listen to your and my guts! I haven't been quite this optimistic about SAN-things for a long time; we still have plenty of issues that have to be dealt with but at least it's a start and we know there is interest out there!

bb
 
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LAXintl
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 9:04 pm

I doubt Icelandair would be looking at SoCal let alone SAN.

For two years they operated SFO flights with reportedly good loads but was discontinued in October 2006.
 
mpdpilot
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 9:34 pm

I don't know if anyone went and actually checked numbers I just quickly check boeing and the 767-300ER could do western europe with slight weight restrictions and the 777-200LR could do it with no restrictions and make it off the runway. The 777 could do it with maximum ZFW and then the reguried fuel and be off the runway in less than 8000'. Now I know these numbers are from the public boeing site and they have been argued before but just some food for thought.
 
dl767captain
Posts: 1206
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 10:00 pm

Quoting MPDPilot (Reply 40):
I don't know if anyone went and actually checked numbers I just quickly check boeing and the 767-300ER could do western europe with slight weight restrictions and the 777-200LR could do it with no restrictions and make it off the runway. The 777 could do it with maximum ZFW and then the reguried fuel and be off the runway in less than 8000'. Now I know these numbers are from the public boeing site and they have been argued before but just some food for thought.

that's pretty interesting, i just wonder how much the weight restriction on the 763ER would cost the airline, i really doubt they would waste a 772LR on SAN until they can get a lot more, but the 767 could be possible with all the airlines that have them. could you do the same thing for a 787 (i just dont know how you did it) it would be interesting to see that posibility.
 
eva777sea
Posts: 313
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 10:11 pm

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 31):
Says the ever innacurate T-100 Data. Or is it Eclat that claims all three of those airports are better than 70% O&D? Get a data miner.

Um, SAN's total pax last year was around 17 million. So, if SEA, DEN, and DFW each had 17 million O&D passengers (which they didn't), that would mean their O&D percentages would be about 57%, 36%, and 28% respectively. Nowhere near your 70% figure. One place you can see that DEN, SEA, and DFW have many more O&D pax is http://www.orlandoairports.net/reports/ranking/o&d_rank.htm and http://www.eclatconsulting.com/im_pdf/top_200_us_markets.pdf
 
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calpsafltskeds
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 10:25 pm

Quoting MPDPilot (Reply 40):
I don't know if anyone went and actually checked numbers I just quickly check boeing and the 767-300ER could do western europe with slight weight restrictions and the 777-200LR could do it with no restrictions and make it off the runway. The 777 could do it with maximum ZFW and then the reguried fuel and be off the runway in less than 8000'. Now I know these numbers are from the public boeing site and they have been argued before but just some food for thought.

I think you may have forgotten about obstruction of Point Loma, just west of Runway 27. There have been many threads on SAN's operational capability and the only aircraft that could make it with any load to Europe are the 772ER (payload restricted), 787 (payload restricted, but probably less than the 772ER) and 772LR (unknown about restrictions, but who would waste a 772LR on a SAN-Europe flight?). The 763ER won't cut it.
 
Bicoastal
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 10:58 pm

Get over it. SAN international passengers (other than YYZ, YVR, SJD) know that they have to connect to get in and out of wonderful San Diego. That's the cost of doing business here. If they don't like it, move your business elsewhere. Although many San Diegans travel internationally, they split their business between the local Star Alliance, OneWorld and SkyTeam members and will not move their precious frequent flyer miles to another airline, even if it might fly non-stop to Narita or London.

Keep SAN right where it is. International travellers will connect through LAX, SFO, DFW, DEN, ORD, CVG, ATL, IAD, JFK, DTW, MSP, MEM, SEA, PDX, MIA, PHL, etc. We have many, many options.
 
mpdpilot
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:52 pm

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 43):
I think you may have forgotten about obstruction of Point Loma, just west of Runway 27. There have been many threads on SAN's operational capability and the only aircraft that could make it with any load to Europe are the 772ER (payload restricted), 787 (payload restricted, but probably less than the 772ER) and 772LR (unknown about restrictions, but who would waste a 772LR on a SAN-Europe flight?). The 763ER won't cut it

Like I said take it with a grain of salt I don't know how accurate the graphs on the website are but the 763ER appeared to get off the runway with a maxload at about the 8500-9000ft mark so I don't know. I do know the min. climb out of SAN on 27 is 317ft/NM which I would guess that a 767 would be able to do but I don't know.
 
mpdpilot
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Sat Oct 13, 2007 12:01 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 41):
that's pretty interesting, i just wonder how much the weight restriction on the 763ER would cost the airline, i really doubt they would waste a 772LR on SAN until they can get a lot more, but the 767 could be possible with all the airlines that have them. could you do the same thing for a 787 (i just dont know how you did it) it would be interesting to see that posibility.

yeah I think your right no one will waste a 77L on this route but a 767 is a possiblity. I can't do the 787 though becasue I don't know that even boeing has all that info on 787 yet and for sure isn't going to release it yet. but I would think that the 787 would be able to do the route.

And to my previous post I looked at the graphs a bit and yes the 767-300ER would require some weight restrictions but it still could do it. With maybe 80% pax.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: SAN Apparently Adopts Incentive Program

Mon Oct 15, 2007 4:56 pm

Quoting Bicoastal (Reply 46):
Get over it. SAN international passengers (other than YYZ, YVR, SJD) know that they have to connect to get in and out of wonderful San Diego. That's the cost of doing business here. If they don't like it, move your business elsewhere. Although many San Diegans travel internationally, they split their business between the local Star Alliance, OneWorld and SkyTeam members and will not move their precious frequent flyer miles to another airline, even if it might fly non-stop to Narita or London.

So how wonderful will it be when SAN reaches it's operational capacity? Say La Guardia style delays?

I'm sure in your alternate universe this will never happen, but that's why it's an alternate universe.

Quoting Bicoastal (Reply 46):
Keep SAN right where it is. International travellers will connect through LAX, SFO, DFW, DEN, ORD, CVG, ATL, IAD, JFK, DTW, MSP, MEM, SEA, PDX, MIA, PHL, etc. We have many, many options.

Until doing so costs nearly twice what it does today due to capacity shortfalls.

If you think Lindbergh is just fine, thats your choice. You should however be somewhat reasonable and consider the consequences of that flawed thought process.

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