Carls
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Wed Oct 10, 2007 11:56 pm

Quoting Acheron (Reply 52):
That's so unexpected I have a hard time believing it, honestly. I don't mean to doubt what you say or sound disrespectful but "seeing is believing".
Any idea when the airshow starts?.

Oh well you are in Caracas, so I could have a wrong information. I just posted what I got, nothing else. If is true or not is another thing.
 
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ER757
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:18 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 49):
Considering how much EK was carping about the 787 being too small, to place the majority of their order for the model closest to the 787 in size strikes me as...unlikely...

I was thinking the same thing. But it does bring up something that I mentioned in the thread about Boeing's answer (or lack thereof) to the A380. They need to come up with an answer to the 350-9 and 350-10 and soon. I take the split on the models here to show that since EK wanted a range of sizes, the A350 just makes more sense as they cover the entire range with one family. Even if the 789 is comparable to or better than the 358, EK figures better to introduce just one more family to the fleet than two. I think the lack of a 787-10 on offer killed Boeing's chances here. This trend will continue IMO until such time as Boeing offers something in the high end of the A350 capacity range
 
sandrozrh
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:20 am

Quoting Acheron (Reply 52):
That's so unexpected I have a hard time believing it, honestly. I don't mean to doubt what you say or sound disrespectful but "seeing is believing".

You better believe it. They already knocke don SRTechnics door a couple of weeks ago, asking for a maintenance package offer for the A330s
 
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LTU932
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:55 am

Quoting SandroZRH (Reply 31):
O Rly?

I merely thought because the OP apparently hear dthe rumour from somewhere, he received th einformation that Ek will order 747-8 and assume dit would be the i. I just asked to clarify.

Case closed, thank you.

Relax, I was just nitpicking, I tend to do that a lot.  Wink I admit, it's a nasty habit sometimes. Still, apologies if you thought I was insulting you or making fun of you.  Smile

Quoting Carls (Reply 51):
Since the order is coming from Conviasa I don't see neither french nor USA goverment doing anything to stop this order, specially with the good relationship Mr. Chavez has with Mr. Sarcozy. I don't see any political issue here, Conviasa can order those AC and then lease those aircrafts to any airline, it is a Venezuela's government decision, has nothing to do with French or USA government.

Actually politics may well have to do a lot here. Remember that US has a trade embargo against Iran, so they're pretty sensitive when it comes to the sale/lease of goods that may come from the US, from US companies, or have American components in then. The A330 has a lot of American components, so it's a longshot that IR would be able to drylease them, much less buy them (they already have a hard time acquiring any new or second hand aircraft at all, because, with the exception of the TU-204s that are apparently on order, all modern aircraft currently for sale will have American components in them, thus making them subject to the embargo). So I guess this acquisition by IR is most likely an ACMI from V0, to circumvent the embargo and not piss off the Americans in the process.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
miamix707
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:04 am

Carls I hope this leak is legit... lol

May the best-looking modern widebody (with permission of the IL96 and 777) live on!  champagne 


Not ready to see the airline indistry dominated by boring twins like the A350 or ugly double decker people-movers. BA should've gone 748i, they'll regret not ordering the Queen of the skies Big grin
 
hightower
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:10 am

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 25):
That's funny. UAE is smaller the state of Maine and has only 4.4 million people. ( less than Denmark )

Imagine if Denmark ordered 100 A350s. Crazy.

Hey! Thanks for remembering us. Alot of people doesn't even know where it is... or atleast not in those countries I've travelled in, including US of A! I guess the cartoon drawings sure did put that small piece of land on the world map, eh? I can't even imagine SK order 1 A350 in the state they're in, but it sure put things in perspective. Which makes me think about a worldwide "take over"... of these airlines with pockets that are obiously unlimited.

I can't help but thinking this idea of a world hub in the middle east is bound to crash eventually... with Etihad, Qatar and Emirates making mega orders, all based in the same area more or less... are they sure everyone wants to connect through their part of the world/flying on their aircraft, after 9/11, the other terrorist attacks and the cartoon crisis? I'm sure most business people wouldn't mind, but the average dane would probably think twice about it, personally I'll never forget my flag being set on fire, all because of some silly cartoons... just like i'll never forget 9/11, or the police lately having uncovered several terror plans in our country (not surprising, is it?) all in the name of a certain religion, which happens to be the official religion of those countries. I'm aware the airlines or people based in that part of the middle east didn't have anything to do with the above, but they're still operating out of countries that have a very "different" view on human rights, freedom of speech, women and religion than for example Denmark and other western countries. Just my 0.2$ - hope I didn't offend anyone

[Edited 2007-10-10 20:11:21]

[Edited 2007-10-10 20:34:18]
Take action and responsibility to do yours for the environment... thx
 
justloveplanes
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:27 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 49):
Considering how much EK was carping about the 787 being too small, to place the majority of their order for the model closest to the 787 in size strikes me as...unlikely...

I am not surprised by the A350 selection. I think Airbus is bascially designing the A350 to EK"s specifications as a super-launch customer, and is following their needs with priority. The whole 8500 nm range spec across all models is straight out of Tim Clark, so this order was going to be very tough for Boeing. Conversely, airlines with different route and cargo needs than EK may now find the 787 better for their needs.

I am very intersted in what Boeing is supplying to EK for the 748 If it is a shortened version of the 748i versus the Lufthansa model, that would indicate how badly Boeing needed this for the 748i program. The A380 order to BA might have turned Boeing's head enough to dig to get the EK order. Funny how this leak came out right after the BA order.
 
behramjee
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:34 am

Quoting Carls (Reply 32):
Breakdown of the A350:

30 A350-800 to replace A330
10 A350-900 to replace A340 / 777-200
10 A350-1000 to replace ?????

30 A 358s to replace 29 A 332s.

10 A 359s to replace 3 B 772As + 6 B 772ERs + 10 A 345s...seems like a minimum of 20 A 359s here.

10 A 351s could be used a replacement aircraft for the non ER B 773 versions (i.e. 12 B 773As EK has) which seat 380 pax in a 3 class configuration and 434 in J + Y.

As for the 10 B 748s, I forecast the following :

2 used for daily LAX flights
2 used for daily SYD-AKL flights
2 used for daily MEL-AKL flights
2 used for daily JNB flights
2 for 2 out of 5 daily LHR flights

I will not be surprised to see ORD get a B 748 in the future Wink
 
behramjee
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:39 am

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 60):
10 A 359s to replace 3 B 772As + 6 B 772ERs + 10 A 345s...seems like a minimum of 20 A 359s here.

i forgot to add 8 A 343s too of EK which need to be replaced for which the A 359s are well suited for...though i have a feeling that some of the additional B 77Ws that EK ordered over the last 2 years will be used to replace currently flown A 343 routes.
 
gigneil
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:59 am

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 60):
10 A 351s could be used a replacement aircraft for the non ER B 773 versions (i.e. 12 B 773As EK has) which seat 380 pax in a 3 class configuration and 434 in J + Y.

I think the existing 773As work great for their regional flights, and replacing them with the far more capable A350-1000 just doesn't make any sense.

NS
 
astuteman
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 5:32 am

Quoting ER757 (Reply 54):
Even if the 789 is comparable to or better than the 358, EK figures better to introduce just one more family to the fleet than two. I think the lack of a 787-10 on offer killed Boeing's chances here. This trend will continue IMO until such time as Boeing offers something in the high end of the A350 capacity range

"All in good time" is my opinion on this.
Airbus are taking the time to get an A350 to the market that the industry wants. The 787 programme is backlogged to hell and Boeing are battling already to get 3 versions into service.
If it takes a year, or even more, to produce a fairly definitive 787-10/11 offering, I just can't see the 787 programme hurting from it.

Regards
 
behramjee
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 5:36 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 62):

I think the existing 773As work great for their regional flights, and replacing them with the far more capable A350-1000 just doesn't make any sense.

by the time the A 351s are delivered to EK (if ever produced by Airbus), it would be 2016 and by that time the B 773A fleet of EK would be 18-20 years old so it would definitely be looked upon as a suitable replacement aircraft candidate.
 
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BlueSky1976
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 7:23 am

Quoting Justloveplanes (Reply 59):
Conversely, airlines with different route and cargo needs than EK may now find the 787 better for their needs.

Not necessarily. Greater range = heavier cargo capability over shorter segments. A350-800 has pretty much the same capability 787-9 has, so the race is going to be neck-in-neck for these two particular models. If an airline doesn't fly ultra long haul, it can load the belly up to the limit and make money with both cargo and pax flying the standard 5,000nm segment with fully loaded plane.
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ikramerica
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 7:32 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 63):
If it takes a year, or even more, to produce a fairly definitive 787-10/11 offering, I just can't see the 787 programme hurting from it.

Not in the least. Boeing can't capture every contest anyway. If they lose out to the A350 for EK because the 787-10 isn't exactly the plane EK wants, it won't make or break the 787-10 and certainly not the program.

You'll likely see airlines like BA, AA, JL and QF buy the 787-10 even as "only" an 7800-8000nm jet, even if EK wants an 8500-8800nm model. For a lot of airlines, if it can't do 10000nm, 8000nm is plenty. Most airlines want to be able to interchange the jets with their larger and smaller planes, and the A380 and 748 both have 8000nm range.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
worldrider
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 7:44 am

Quoting MIAMIx707 (Reply 57):
Not ready to see the airline indistry dominated by boring twins like the A350 or ugly double decker people-movers. BA should've gone 748i, they'll regret not ordering the Queen of the skies

that's your personal opinion right? personal
 
StarGoldLHR
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 8:53 am

That airport is going to be fantastic.

Are those "loop backs" at the end of the airport designed so that the plane can continue off the end of the runway and loop round to the terminal without the need for that all to often "waiting for something to take off" delay ?.. if so thats a very clever idea.

At the far end of the picture, is that a private airline terminal ?.. if so thats' huge.
So far in 2008 45 flights and Gold already. JFK, IAD, LGA, SIN, HKG, NRT, AKL, PPT, LAX still to book ! Home Airport LCY
 
na
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 9:18 am

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 64):
by the time the A 351s are delivered to EK (if ever produced by Airbus), it would be 2016 and by that time the B 773A fleet of EK would be 18-20 years old so it would definitely be looked upon as a suitable replacement aircraft candidate.

You can bet on it that some of the 773ERs on order will already replace the 773A in Emirates fleet around 2010. 18-20 years is far too old for them, they must go after latest 12 years.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 9:21 am

All due respect Carls, but I seem to remember you had a source who had some interesting thoughts on the BA order.

I'll wait till the order comes in, but A350 makes sense to me. I am puzzled by the 748I though, but if you say so...  Wink
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
BlueElephant
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:23 am

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 16):
Where the hell are they going to put all of these wide bodies that they have ordered over the last couple of years?



Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 17):
I thought EK was planning to have an aircraft leasing subsidiary.

I think a lot of these aircraft will eventually be leased...but a number of these aircraft will probably go toward replacing EK's existing A330s....and some of the older 777s.

Not to mention...It has already been stated that EK wants to expand outside of Dubai...anyone remember all that AKL mumbo Jumbo....and the HAM expansion?...

When I initally saw this thread title, I was sure that the 747-8 was for Cargo...I don't know what they'd do with those (aside from leasing them) if they weren't for cargo..seeing as they've got a number of 380's on order anyway.

The A350 orders were kinda obvious after Airbus sold a share to UAE (did that ever go through)....

Btw...When is the Dubai Air Show?
 
eraugrad02
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:23 am

Quoting Iwok (Reply 50):
f this turns out to be true, this order speaks volumes about the 748

I assume Boeing got the greater range... This is also why I think BA will still order 748i. Later but still.
Desmond MacRae in ILM
 
Carls
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:41 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 70):

Yes, I have a good friend who work internally in BA and he mentioned that to me, although the numbers were a bit different he said 15 A380 and 25 787. Finally the order was 12 and 24 so I consider his opinion very accurate, he also told me about an A350 order and I asked him why they did not announced it, and he said that A350 order will be made by the end of the next year, they are not in a rush.

As I posted, this post was initiated just by a rumor, it is a leak that I have been trying to confirm, if is true or not is just something that I can not guarantee. I just try to share an information I got from someone well informed who has told me many thing that have happened.

I said like 15 post before this one that:

747-800 INTERCONTINENTAL WAS A MISUNDERSTANDING. THERE IS NO 747-800 INTERCONTINENTAL
ORDER,

there is something with the 747-8 but he could not give me more information because he wasn't clear enough.

Also Conviasa, I mentioned because isn't the first time I have heard about it, and this time I got numbers and models. There was Acheron surprised with this, he live in Caracas and he should know this better than me, and I think that he could tell us if this is true o not because there in Venezuela must be any information about it. I just repeat what I got because I thought it was interesting. I never though that I should be a fortune teller to post my comments here at a.net.

About Conviasa order, and LTU932 comment, I never said that there wasn't a political issues between USA and Iran or EU and Iran. I said that Venezuela has no political issues with USA and EU, even though Mr. Chavez have been aggressive against USA he have done anything against USA, other that talk b..s. Since Conviasa is a stated owned Airline they can order whatever they want and they can do whatever they want with those aircraft, as they are doing with their current A340-200. I don't know what arrangement they have with Iran Air, but they can lease those Aircraft to Iran and nobody can do anything against. I know about the limitation about shearing technologies, but I think this applies only for military Industry, otherwise China could not get any aircrafts from USA or EU. The embargo works in a different way, that impede to any American corporation to establish commercial relationship with any Iranian company, but the embargo can not forbid any other country to make business with them. Just like USA and Cuba can't do business but a lot of EU and Canadian corporation are doing business in Cuba.
 
aa1818
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:00 pm

Didn't Ek annouce a 748 order already?? Or was that only for the freighter?

AA1818
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columba
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:04 pm

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 74):
Didn't Ek annouce a 748 order already?? Or was that only for the freighter?

AA1818

Only Freighters - they were ordered during the last Dubai Air Show.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
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Revelation
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:29 pm

Quoting Bond007 (Reply 48):
Boy, it's a good job there is plenty of space left in the Arizona desert.

Hot stock tip ... buy as many shares as you can of all the storage facilities in AZ/NM/CA etc.

Why, isn't there enough space left in the Arabian Desert?
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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United787
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:56 pm

Quoting Hightower (Reply 58):
I can't help but thinking this idea of a world hub in the middle east is bound to crash eventually... with Etihad, Qatar and Emirates making mega orders, all based in the same area more or less...

I have yet to hear a good explanation of what Etihad, Qatar and Emirates are going to be doing with all of these aircraft.

A megahub??? For who???

For the Americas, the middle east is on the way to nowhere, maybe the Seychelles. It would have to be a destination, which it is becoming, but there are limits to it. We already have our own fabricated mega desert destination.

For Europe, the middle east is too far south for most Asia and Oceania destinations and too far east for most Africa destinations. I know it isn't too far out of the way for Europe to India and Southeast Asia destinations although I think Tashkent would make a better mega hub for Europe to Asia connections, it could be like the Chicago of Eurasia!

For Asia, the middle east is too far south for most Europe destinations.

Maybe they are thinking of tapping into the lucrative central Asian - northern African market.
 
bond007
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:59 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 76):
Why, isn't there enough space left in the Arabian Desert?

They're gonna need both deserts  Wink

Jimbo
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CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:21 pm

No offence Carls its just that we get a lot of people saying they have a source high up at BA/AA/UA/CA/EK/DL/CX etc and they have been told in privilege that this airline is about to buy a load of new 787s.

These are the same sources that say things like:

"My mate knows this guy who cleans the pool of this dude that works at Cathay/Virgin/Thai/Emirates/Etihad/China Eastern/Singapore/Lufthansa/SouthAfrican/Qatar/Iberia/Air Canada (choose one) who says they think the new A340 sucks and they are going to dump them and buy a load of sparkly new 777-300ERs instead because they are much better and cooler"

Basically an awful lot of people saying things they really want to hear. The tickly part is figuring out who knows what they are talking about and genuinely do have inside knowledge and who doesnt.

I am an airline analyst by trade and have very close (ie: daily) working relationships with a couple of the big lessors, a few of the major airlines, and crucially, several very large investment houses and banks. I have written the credit report on pretty much any airline you can think of, and have personal contacts at many of them. I am privvy to some inside information, but generally, i find out when everyone else does as regards new orders. Generally I ask about fleet plans or ask them to comment on rumours when I interview them, and 99.9% of the time I get "no comment".

It just is not information that should be in the public domain until everything is cut and dried. Anyone privvy to the negotiations process (and there are not many, even for BA's recent order) is sworn to absolute secrecy because very often there is a lot of too-ing and fro-ing right up until the very moment the contract is signed - you just do not want this stuff getting out while the negotiations are ongoing (there are Leaks and "Leaks" of course, but thats different). As for the post-contract period before announcement - this is considerably shorter in most cases than people think. There are various compliance issues and board approval signatures etc in most cases I know of, but I do not know of any cases where all parties involved have sat on it and kept quiet for any period of time. There are often some very eager shareholders waiting for the news...

All I can say is that you are extremely fortunate to have a contact privvy with the BA and EK orders and BOTH airlines.

Now, I know there ARE at least three members here that I can think of that are genuinely plugged in and would be veritable goldmines of insider knowledge if you could get them to talk about it, but they dont.

Rumours on here are 99% of the time a load of rubbish - this is mainly because the people who DO know, dont say. Very often the people that think they do, do say so. Lot of armchair CEO's in here.

I apologise if i come across acidic and cynical, but I thought i should explain myself - i believe NOTHING until i see it in ink. Most of the time people's sources (the ones that exist) are cabin crew and disgruntled check-in folks. They know even less than the average person here, believe me.

Like I said - no offence, and I apologise for my cynicsm but I'd take everything you hear from anyone in this industry as dodgy until you see it confirmed.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:30 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 7):
Given that Boeing still hasn't come out with specs about the B787-10 I can understand EK going with the A350

Absolutely. I can understand EK's move here with Boeing being tied up with trying to roll out the first 787's, and now with them late, the 787-10 is quite a ways down the line.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
50 + 50 A350 tracks with my belief that EK might want to "hedge their bets" about a possible 787HGW while giving them a guaranteed "near-term" replacement for their 77A, 77E, and 773 fleets.

As such, the A350-900 will likely be the majority - if not totality - of the order, with A350-1000 slots likely being held. They still have 77Ws rolling out of the factory, so the need to add A350-1000s is likely not pressing for them.

Agreed.

The order for the 747-8I is also a nice boost for that program....desperately needed.
One Nation Under God
 
Carls
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:32 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 79):
All I can say is that you are extremely fortunate to have a contact privvy with the BA and EK orders and BOTH airlines.

BA it is in deed a good friend of mine.

EK as I said before it is only a rumor coming from a leak. Your sarcastic comment did not reach me.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:32 pm

Quoting United787 (Reply 77):
Quoting Hightower (Reply 58):
I can't help but thinking this idea of a world hub in the middle east is bound to crash eventually... with Etihad, Qatar and Emirates making mega orders, all based in the same area more or less...

I have yet to hear a good explanation of what Etihad, Qatar and Emirates are going to be doing with all of these aircraft.

A megahub??? For who???

For the Americas, the middle east is on the way to nowhere, maybe the Seychelles. It would have to be a destination, which it is becoming, but there are limits to it. We already have our own fabricated mega desert destination.

For Europe, the middle east is too far south for most Asia and Oceania destinations and too far east for most Africa destinations. I know it isn't too far out of the way for Europe to India and Southeast Asia destinations although I think Tashkent would make a better mega hub for Europe to Asia connections, it could be like the Chicago of Eurasia!

For Asia, the middle east is too far south for most Europe destinations.

Maybe they are thinking of tapping into the lucrative central Asian - northern African market.

Excellent - I was just about to invest in EK. There was me thinking they had a coherent business strategy and a well-planned future, but just in time you step in to tell us that all those hundreds of billions of dollars are wasted on a plan that is geographically unsound.  Wink

Seriously though - I refer you to a cut and pasted post I made about seven months ago on this very topic that is far too lengthy to re-type.

There seems to be a lot of people on here who feel that EK are clueless are are some kind of rich-man's plaything, and who are looking down their noses at them.

EK are an airline I know *a lot* about, and I've been to DXB several times, seen how they operate, and done some research about their operations, and particularly about their approach to forecasting and yield management. Let me say this categorically:

EK are extremely shrewd, and are very, very good at what they do.

People slate them because they were apparently built on Arab oil dollars (which isnt actually the case) and say that they are not playing fair in the market because of the kind of bottomless money behind them that they do not have to pay back and the extremely rapid expansion shown by the airline, as if that was a negative thing. Analysts call it "The Magpie Effect" - buying everything new and shiny because its there and not really thinking it through - people have said EK have done this. Rubbish.

EK have always had a hub-building strategy. Thats the cornerstone to everything they are about. It is important to note that investment in new aircraft and airport etc is actually not soley driven at expanding the airline - it is a cashcow in its own right, but thats a bonus. HRH Sheikh Maktoum has always had a vision to expand Dubai into one of the World's great tourism and commerce centres - he recognises that the oil wont be there forever (Dubai itself doesnt have any oil in reality - lots of investments in other Kingdom's oil deposits and a wealth of other things besides, but no oil of its own). This is the reason for the massive expansion in EK - the expansion and building going on in the jaw-dropping Dubai developments dwarfs that invested in EK - remember that. The long term plan was to focus on Dubai as a massive commerce, business, leisure, and tourism centre for the whole MEG region, and for that the necessary infrastructure needs to be in place - ie: transport.

Dubai has, up in Jebel Ali, one of the most important container portals in the World and it is unquestionably the most important port in the Gulf. The LPG/LNG can stay out in Qatar, and the oil can stay out in Ras Tanura in Saudi and Kharg in Iran - he isnt interested in that (yet) - its all about the major liner hubs, multimodal logistics, super automated megaports - this is one of the reasons the new DXB airport is moving to Jebel Ali - EK Cargo has a world beating multimodal portal right there.

Twenty-odd years ago EK was re-born under Sheikh Maktoum's care (initially his Father actually, IIRC) and he recognised he needed an airline to match his visions for what Dubai was already on the way to being. The place has been a massive trading port and transport centre for hundreds and hundreds of years. He visioned many thousands of people coming from all over the world to Dubai every day, and that demand to travel to and from Dubai as being very large - why should other airlines get all that revenue?

His mandate was for an airline that was massively versatile - the convenient, easy, pleasant experience for the tourists, the focussed, convenient attendant carrier for the business traveller, and the all pervading perfection for the first class passengers. Supreme quality and innovation with a 24 carat gold brand (literally). Factor in a wildly ambitious cargo network, and an immediate addressing of where his potential cash cows lay and you've got the crux of their immediate business plan. He got in the best of the best - no consulting agencies for EK - he just headhunted the most innovative heads from the majors and also from big business to make EK work like it is supposed to. Ditto the training pilots and senior cabin crew. Quality at all costs. The company invested in a large training facility, and is widely regarded as one of the most progressive and forward thinking airlines in the World. They also have a first class safety record. The airline needs to fly the most modern, effiicient, impressive new aircraft as the associated prestige of EK reflects that of Dubai itself and vice versa. He quickly recognised that he had two clear revenue streams right from the off that he could exploit.

One - The hundreds of thousands of immigrant workers going to and from DXB and India/Pakistan every day.
Two - The DXB- Western Europe traffic bringing the high yield pax into DXB from London, Paris etc.

Latterly, in the last ten years we've seen a vast increase in the first two streams, but also the emergence (or at least attendence of) of three more:

Three - The Europe - Asia/Australasia O&D traffic.
Four - DXB - JFK links.
Five - The millions of ex-pat Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi ex-pats living in Europe, particularly the UK.

If any airline has a better grasp of geographically/demographically linked route planning/yield management then I'd love to know who they are.

EK has also demonstrated another trait that people here seem to sneer at. It is the oft-held holy grail that commonality and the associated efficiency benefits that can come with it, are the be-all-and-end-all. They arent. The right capacity on the right route and the right time with the right yield management is far more important. EK recognise that tailoring the correct type to a certain route is key - QR and EY are also particularly good at this.

People cannot envisage what in the World EK will do with their 49 new A380s - so they therefore assume that because they are (supposedly) crass, oil-bucks-rich Arabs with edifice complexes that they dont have the first idea what they are going to do with them and only bought them due to the Magpie Effect. I promise you, EK know *EXACTLY* what they are going to do with them. They are extremely clever - an example - most of EKs fleet was not bought outright with dollars. People have this image that the Sheikh just wrote a cheque - it doesnt work like that (most of the time) - They could write a cheque if they wanted to, but they are a bit smarter than that. EK has financed most of its fleet through major banks like ABN-Ambo, Citi, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank etc - the idea being that the banks and finance houses secure long-term guaranteed risk-free revenue from EK, and in return they invest billions and billions in property and infrastructure in Dubai - foreign investment is whole premise on which Dubai is built.

A separate LoCo long-haul offshoot? Unlikely - I think their brand is too strong to risk the dilution, and the advantage the extra space will give them in terms of premium class product offerings will see the A380 on their mainline services - no worries.

A personal hunch is that they may consider starting a leasing wing for all those A332, A343 and 777s that will start to appear once their A350/787 order happens - who is to say that some of the A380s will find themselves leased out - as demand increases a lot for the big one once airlines see how good it is (we hope) in service? Who knows?

Please excuse the long post - but in answer to the starter question - how big will EK become?

I think there is a critical mass for airlines, especially hub-centric ones like EK, but theres no doubt they can become the dominant long-haul carrier on the planet - and I really dont think they are done yet in terms of route expansion. I dont think there are too many more routes to open, as they fly pretty much everywhere at present, but I think China, Europe, and the US are going to see more routes open in the future. I wouldnt be at all surprised to see EK become and 300 airframe fleet before too long. I'd say thats pretty dominant.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:35 pm

Quoting Carls (Reply 81):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 79):
All I can say is that you are extremely fortunate to have a contact privvy with the BA and EK orders and BOTH airlines.

BA it is in deed a good friend of mine.

EK as I said before it is only a rumor coming from a leak. Your sarcastic comment did not reach me.

Mate its only sarcastic if your source at EK doesnt exist - if he does, then you are indeed very fortunate.  Wink

Where does one go to hear these leaks? I never get to hear them - perhaps I am doing something wrong?
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
col
Posts: 1707
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 2:11 am

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:57 pm

Quoting United787 (Reply 77):
I have yet to hear a good explanation of what Etihad, Qatar and Emirates are going to be doing with all of these aircraft.

My money is on them being used to carry passengers.

Seriously, you have to look what EK have done. It is very similar to CO in that they fly from European regionals into their hub. For UK this means that people don't fly through LHR. UK was easy pickings, as the regions needed airlines offering global reach, which BA could not do. You need to look at their growth out of these stations, and how when they add capacity it is filled efficiently. They will start a route with the 332, then grow it with larger aircraft before going two or three daily. It is very interesting watching them over the years capturing markets which nobody thought possible. CO have done the same thing but with 757's, as they don't have any wide bodies.

Now they need the 380, as this will give them another tool against the competition and keep them growing.

Think you will see other airlines in the desert before EK.
 
Carls
Topic Author
Posts: 194
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:58 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 83):

Time will tell us what EK will order.

And you are right, I am very fortunate.....I am just wondering how you realized that if I don't even know you!!!!!!!!!!  flamed 
 
bond007
Posts: 4428
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2005 2:07 am

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:07 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 82):
Please excuse the long post

Time will tell  Wink

Many of your observations are based on the current situation in Dubai ... not where it will be in 5-10 years time. Of course, we can all speculate, but many analysts (as informed or better) than yourself, think it won't be quite as rosy. The situation with Indian and Pakistani workers changes every day, and is a huge part of the whole formula.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 82):
I promise you, EK know *EXACTLY* what they are going to do with them.

Yep, as I said above ... right now, they know *EXACTLY* what they *THINK* they are going to do with them. I have no doubt their plan was based on educated decisions ... but so were many other similar company/economic decisions that simply "could not go wrong" ... but somehow did.

You'll not find too many people 10 years ago, that would have envisaged what's happening in Dubai today ... the same may well be true in 10 years time.

IMO there is much more potential for failure rather than success ... it's future due to location alone, in one of the more volatile areas of the world, is a potential unknown. Add to that, it's huge recent growth, and huge real estate market, huge airline investment .. IMO all based upon decisions made by well educated BUT extremely insular people ... and it's a recipe for disaster.

Jimbo
I'd rather be on the ground wishing I was in the air, than in the air wishing I was on the ground!
 
col
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:14 pm

Quoting Bond007 (Reply 86):
IMO there is much more potential for failure rather than success ...

To succeed you have to take risks, how do you think anything evolves. I disagree with your statement, IMO there is more potential for success than failure. Mine is based on their performance to date, and their growth potential. Yours seems to be based on Dubai and the Middle East???
 
User avatar
Stitch
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:15 pm

Quoting Bond007 (Reply 86):
Many of your observations are based on the current situation in Dubai ... not where it will be in 5-10 years time.

Maybe EK and Dubai are working so hard to try and ensure that the situation today is the one that will be the same a decade from now?
 
Osprey88
Posts: 268
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2007 8:13 am

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:17 pm

100 A350 and 20 747-8!

The more I see these numbers, the more I think EK's eyes are bigger than their stomach! Big grin

Any work on whether these 747-8s are 787-8 F s?
"Reading departure signs in some big airports reminds me of the places I've been"
 
Asiaflyer
Posts: 871
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:50 am

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:22 pm

Quoting Carls (Reply 85):
Time will tell us what EK will order.

And you are right, I am very fortunate.....I am just wondering how you realized that if I don't even know you!!!!!!!!!!

Carls, We all at a.net appreciate the information you are providing us.
If you have a good source, don't overexpose it here, as peoples demand for you to tell more can get the reverse effect.
Expose your information carefully, otherwise the leak can dry up.
Thanks for the input you are giving.
We are all looking forward to what will come out from Dubai Air Show.
SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
 
bond007
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RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:24 pm

Quoting Col (Reply 87):
Mine is based on their performance to date,

Which is no way to estimate what it will be in 10 years time!

Quoting Col (Reply 87):
Yours seems to be based on Dubai and the Middle East???

Some of it yes. Do you really think this isn't a factor in it's success?
Much of it I would have said regardless of it's geographical location (which isn't ideal from any standpoint).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 88):
Maybe EK and Dubai are working so hard to try and ensure that the situation today is the one that will be the same a decade from now?

I sincerely hope they aren't!

It's impossible for it to stay the way it is today with recent growth and investment. It will be very different .. one way or another... and I assume EK are counting on that, with their fingers crossed.

Jimbo
I'd rather be on the ground wishing I was in the air, than in the air wishing I was on the ground!
 
OHLHD
Posts: 2903
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2004 6:02 am

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:28 pm

Not bad. That is good news for both Airbus and Boeing.

Will be interesting if there will be any news about 787 and EK.  Smile
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 12:12 pm

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:47 pm

Quoting Carls (Reply 85):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 83):


Time will tell us what EK will order.

And you are right, I am very fortunate.....I am just wondering how you realized that if I don't even know you!!!!!!!!!!

I wish I had contacts like that put it that way - apologies if i offended you. Wasnt my intention.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:01 pm

Quoting Bond007 (Reply 86):

Many of your observations are based on the current situation in Dubai ... not where it will be in 5-10 years time. Of course, we can all speculate, but many analysts (as informed or better) than yourself, think it won't be quite as rosy. The situation with Indian and Pakistani workers changes every day, and is a huge part of the whole formula.



Quoting Bond007 (Reply 86):
Yep, as I said above ... right now, they know *EXACTLY* what they *THINK* they are going to do with them. I have no doubt their plan was based on educated decisions ... but so were many other similar company/economic decisions that simply "could not go wrong" ... but somehow did.

...EK doesn't work in a vacuum friend, not only do they have many internal analysts, they consult with many different groups and organisations.....the best they can do is take all of that information, sort in some method and make decisions based on that.....

Unlike the 1970's when many of the Arab companies who made money on oil blew it away on useless items, these groups of Arabs now do a lot of business..

As fellow A.netter CHRISBA777ER mentioned, Emirates Airlines is part of the "grand scheme of things"..believe it or not, it only makes up a small portion of things.

Guess which government owns 20% of the NASDAQ? Guess which two governments combined own a staggering forty percent of the London Stock Exchange (the other govt. is the Govt. Qatar)....

EK and the government of Dubai (i.e. the Emir of Dubai) have a vision and a plan and they have put people in place to execute those planes.....

Will the so-called "bubble" burst? Possibly...We certainly don't know....but until it happens, we do not know how far it can go nor do we know how the possible "bubble" will deflate as all "bubbles" have different characteristics... yes 

Quoting Col (Reply 87):
To succeed you have to take risks, how do you think anything evolves. I disagree with your statement, IMO there is more potential for success than failure. Mine is based on their performance to date, and their growth potential. Yours seems to be based on Dubai and the Middle East???

 checkmark 
"Up the Irons!"
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 12:12 pm

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:02 pm

Quoting Bond007 (Reply 91):
Quoting Col (Reply 87):
Mine is based on their performance to date,

Which is no way to estimate what it will be in 10 years time!

Quoting Col (Reply 87):
Yours seems to be based on Dubai and the Middle East???

Some of it yes. Do you really think this isn't a factor in it's success?
Much of it I would have said regardless of it's geographical location (which isn't ideal from any standpoint).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 88):
Maybe EK and Dubai are working so hard to try and ensure that the situation today is the one that will be the same a decade from now?

I sincerely hope they aren't!

It's impossible for it to stay the way it is today with recent growth and investment. It will be very different .. one way or another... and I assume EK are counting on that, with their fingers crossed.

The assumption is that passenger numbers, freight tonnages for air travel will increase in spite of global economic realities.

Basically you can simplfy it to this:

You either think that

1 - The price of oil, security threats, wars, global epidemics, economic slowdowns not attributable to any of the above etc is going to force a slowdown and possible decline in the airline industry globally or within the sphere we are talking about, in this case the MEG, in the next 25 years.


2 - Growth will continue in spite of any foreseeable problems and the market will continue to develop. Worst case scenario is low single digit growth in passenger/freight numbers, say 3% for the next 25 years, and optimistic views are that the market may outperform this guideline by a considerable margin in the future.

That being the case, the ultimate point in this discussion would be:

Where is the "critical mass" point of demand and will this point increase in the next 25 years?
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
col
Posts: 1707
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 2:11 am

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:11 pm

Quoting Bond007 (Reply 91):
Which is no way to estimate what it will be in 10 years time!

And what is your estimation on EK in ten years time?

Quoting Bond007 (Reply 91):
Some of it yes. Do you really think this isn't a factor in it's success?
Much of it I would have said regardless of it's geographical location (which isn't ideal from any standpoint).

Not ideal based on what? All hubs aren't ideal, but you offer good service with an efficient transfer and Bingo! Look at Singapore, small island 4.5 to 5 million people.

But lets look at some facts based on info from UK. EK fly regionally from BHX, GLA and MAN. Newcastle has just started I believe.
BHX to Dubai 2006 - 308825; 2005 - 230826; 2004 - 186773. YTD (August) 240535.
GLA to Dubai 2006 - 192932; 2005 - 167578; 2004 - 98,578. YTD 149371.
MAN to Dubai 2006 - 416201; 2005 - 369756; 2004 - 336966. YTD 330144.
Very good load factors.
So what should EK do?

1) Continue to grow with more routes, more options for connections, more regional airports and larger aircraft - generating more revenue/profits for the airline, Dubai and owners.
2) Look in the mirror, and say hey, we are in Dubai and the Middle East, in ten years we don't know what is going to happen. Lets stop now and let Ethiad, Oman Air, Gulf Air and Qatar pass us by.

I cannot see your logic. Based on what I see EK has to continue to grow, otherwise it will stall and get passed by. Other carriers are copying their operating plan.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:18 pm

...maybe something of interest....

"Boeing's 787 Is in Race for 100-Plane Emirates Order (Update1)

" Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co. still stands a chance of winning a 100-plane order for its delayed 787 Dreamliner from Middle Eastern airline Emirates, the carrier said.

Emirates is weighing the 787 against Airbus SAS's A350 even after Boeing postponed deliveries by six months, President Tim Clark said in an interview today. It may order as many as 100 of either model, worth about $16 billion at list prices, at the Dubai Air Show next month.

''All our studies were based on the fact that this airplane would be delayed into service,'' Clark said. ''But unlike the A380 delay, when we were at the front end of the order stream, this delay really has no bearing on us.'' "

full article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...=conews&tkr=BA:US&sid=aa66jNQnFmTs
"Up the Irons!"
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 12:12 pm

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:22 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 97):

I could totally see them getting a hundred-odd 788s as well as a load of A359s.

The 788 gives them the opportunity to fly to places that nobody ever thought possible from DXB - i am a huge, huge fan.

Fingers crossed they go for a load of both.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
BestWestern
Posts: 8336
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2000 8:46 pm

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 6:05 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 98):
The 788 gives them the opportunity to fly to places that nobody ever thought possible from DXB - i am a huge, huge fan.

That makes two europeans who are fond of the 788 -

Its perfect for secondary routes from DXB to Europe, like BSL, BRS, DUB, LYS, BOD, etc...
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 6:06 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 98):
Fingers crossed they go for a load of both.

 crossfingers 
"Up the Irons!"
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 12:12 pm

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 6:43 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 99):
That makes two europeans who are fond of the 788

I'm sure there are more of us!

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 99):
Its perfect for secondary routes from DXB to Europe, like BSL, BRS, DUB, LYS, BOD, etc

Hmmmm - think EK will probably be looking at most of these within the next ten years:

Marseilles, Warsaw, Belfast, Geneva, Luxembourg, Prague, Helsinki, Oslo, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Phuket, Tashkent, Yerevan, Bishkek, Guangzhou, Taipei, Rangoon, St Petersburg, Barcelona, Lisbon, Paderborn/Cologne, Bandar Seri Begawan, Nagoya, Okinawa, Bali etc.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
BestWestern
Posts: 8336
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2000 8:46 pm

RE: Emirates To Announce 100 A350 And 20 747-8

Thu Oct 11, 2007 6:56 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 101):
EK will probably be looking at most of these within the next ten years

Not to mention the 25 more Indian airports that will come on line over the next five years.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.

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