dallasnewark
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 7:41 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 200):
Some people here really surprise me because they truly seem convinced Airbus is run by a bunch of idiots who can't put 2 and 2 together. Actually I could make a nasty joke about the fact that right now, it is Boeing who seems not to be able to put 2 things together in a correct way, but no worries, I won't...

These must be high times for you and Keesje.

Whatever happend to taking the high road, just couldn't resist this one time?
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scbriml
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 7:46 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 163):
No, not really. In his pronouncement of a delay, he had better hope that everyone assumes its mouthing the rumor mill or part of a F.U.D campaign. If he *KNEW* that the program was going to be late at the time he said it would, industrial espionage charges wouldn't be out of the question. Or worse.

I just realised I missed a better quote from the article I pointed you at in reply #199.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...aerospace/2003615147_airbus13.html

Quote:
"Despite our extensive experience in delaying aircraft programs, we don't have any particular inside knowledge" about the 787 program, Leahy said. "But if you talk with suppliers, most people are talking about up to a six-month delay as a possibility."

Looks like he's got the industrial espionage angle covered!  rotfl 
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There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Danny
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 7:50 am

Some interesting points being brought up by Scot Hamilton on leeham.net

"First flight won’t happen until the end of the first quarter (maybe) and delivery is now hoped for by the
end of November or in December 2008. "
...
"Therefore, the window for 787 cold weather test has likely closed for the year 2008"
...
"This would imply that deliveries of the Dreamliner can not begin in late November or December 2008 as Boeing now is announcing. It's far more likely that first delivery of the 787 will occur in March 2009, at the earliest and after a thourough evaluation of the cold-soak tests."

Full story:
http://www.leeham.net/filelib/ScottsColumn101007.pdf
 
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sebolino
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 8:14 am

Quoting Dallasnewark (Reply 201):
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 200):
Some people here really surprise me because they truly seem convinced Airbus is run by a bunch of idiots who can't put 2 and 2 together. Actually I could make a nasty joke about the fact that right now, it is Boeing who seems not to be able to put 2 things together in a correct way, but no worries, I won't...

These must be high times for you and Keesje.

Whatever happend to taking the high road, just couldn't resist this one time?

LOL

For sure, if some a.netters react the same way they did with the A380 delays, it will become ugly. But I'm confident they will stay much more silent than before.  Smile  Smile
 
worldrider
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 8:21 am

Quoting ScrubbsYWG (Reply 191):
The real thing that sucks for us enthusiasts is we have to wait longer to see this baby fly! We were so close, and now its another 6 months or so Sad I want more pics of this thing. The wing looks like pure pure sex to me. Even better than the a380 wing.

sex??? to me it looks more like little business jet, a flying fish..ahhh in plastic!!! errrkk!
just personal feeling.
the A380 is the beeaaast !!! bigthumbsup 
 
slz396
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 8:27 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 122):
Just imagine all the future newspaper articles and subsequent A.net threads in which basically every CEO of every airline that has the 787 on order -and we all know there are a lot- gets his 2 minutes of fame to lash out at Boeing and their utter incompetence and just how much of a problem these delays will cause to his airline and its expansion plans.



Quoting ER757 (Reply 152):
Yeah, imagine what Tim Clark would have had to say.

No worries, there is a certain very vocal CEO of a large Middle Eastern airline with some pretty ambitious expansion plans too who has the 787 on order as well and who was expected to officially announce his order at the Dubai Air Show.

We all know Mr. Al-Bakr doesn't like to be tossed around, so I can already pretty much imagine what kind of words he'll be speaking, especially after his "surprise order" was unveiled 'in error' by the entroubled airplane manufacturer Boeing during the roll out ceremony this summer.

On the other hand, knowing his temper, he may not be announcing anything no more!

Quoting Danny (Reply 203):
Some interesting points being brought up by Scot Hamilton on leeham.net.

Basically, the idea is that as the 787 will now have its first flight during spring 2008 at the earliest -with an EIS set by Boeing late 2008- the plane will not be able to be tested for cold weather operations in the Artic, something required by the FAA/JAA and that therefore Boeing may have no option but to delay the EIS till early 2009, after they have had the chance to demonstrate the 787's ability to operate in extreme cold weather.

Don't know how likely that is though...

[Edited 2007-10-11 01:29:36]
 
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sebolino
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 8:41 am

I clearly remember some people here stating that if the 787 was delayed and if people at Boeing knew it and didn't say it, they would face prosecution (it was the big argument by some people against a 787 delay).
It's now clear that they know it for a while, but insisted that there would be no delays until recently.

So what's up now ? Was it pure BS ?
 
LXA340
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 9:38 am

Who knows as we saw with Airbus once the first problems arise it was just the begining so I wouldn't be supprosed to see the first delivery 1 year behind schedule. Maybe this will also help Airbus to gain more custumers again when Airlines see that also "all might" Boeing has troublr with developing their new flagship model. Do you guys think this will even out the orders of B787's and A350's in long term? Also will we also see now more orders of A380's as Airbus is not any worse than Boeing?  Wink
 
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glideslope
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 9:41 am

Quoting Sebolino (Reply 204):
LOL

For sure, if some a.netters react the same way they did with the A380 delays, it will become ugly. But I'm confident they will stay much more silent than before

Reactions will be based on Boeing's credibility. Not the ad-nauuem defence of Airbus during the 380 issues. If Boeing intentionally knew things and withheld them, they will be held accountable. I'd be the 1st shareholder in line to change management.

I think they simply severely underestimated their ability to develope the new assembly procedures, and there are some serious QC issues with 1 supplier.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
Norcal773
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 9:51 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 206):
'in error' by the entroubled airplane manufacturer Boeing during the roll out ceremony this summer.

Entroubled??? Gee Slz396, put the guns back in the closet, not so fast. I love the way you're always so quick to lash at Boeing in almost EVERY post you put up!  Yeah sure
If you're going through hell, keep going
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 10:27 am

Quote:
Responding to the airframer’s decision to push back initial deliveries – slated for All Nippon Airways - by at least six months, until late November or December 2008, Northwest says: “We are disappointed by Boeing’s delay. We can adapt to the situation. It will be very important that Boeing meets its new deadline and we expect them to do so.”

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-for-boeing-to-meet-northwest.html

There is an interesting post in the orders group which suggests that certification could be as late as October 2009. That comes from a usually very reliable member of the group. While I don´t believe that it will be Oct 2009 I think we won´t see any delivery before early 2009. IMO Boeing´s new schedule is still too ambitious and still doesn´t take and unforeseen issues into account.

What surprises me most is the "we don´t expect any real impact on earnings" part. While the total planned number for 2008 isn´t really changed (109 vs 112) it should have quite an impact on cash flow, in most cases delayed by a couple of months. And - what is more important - assuming they get certification in Nov/Dec 2008 they want to have 109 airplanes ready for basically immediate delivery. That
a) mean that they need quite a bit of ramp space
b) have to pray that there won´t be any real issues during testing which require extensive modification.

For me that doens´t really add up at the moment.
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LXA340
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 10:31 am

I realy wouldn't be suprised if Boeing witheld information regarding the delay. Just like with Airbus the development of a new plane etc it takes time. Especially with the B787 this whole plan sounded much to optimistic from the begining onwards something really seems to smell here very suspivious all the way to the sky. So let's wait and see how this story develops. As posted before I don't see the first delivery before March / April 09.
 
PHKLM
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 10:38 am

Quoting LXA340 (Reply 212):
As posted before I don't see the first delivery before March / April 09.

Trains undergo cold-weather testing in large climate chambers, do these climate chambers exist for airliners?
I can't see why the test cannot be done indoors in the middle of the summer, unless it is required to perform a take of or landing under these circumstances.
 
Danny
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 10:40 am

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 211):
IMO Boeing´s new schedule is still too ambitious and still doesn´t take and unforeseen issues into account.

Agree. That was my point about Boeing falling in the same traps that Airbus did with A380. Rather than carefully rethink how much time realistically they need, they announced another very aggressive schedule that many already call unrealistic.
 
CF188A
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:16 am

To those right wing Boeing lovers in here, Seems like Boeing is no longer "perfect" anymore!  Wink This is beginning like a A380 nightmare, oHHHHHHH what are we to do!
Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die tomorrow~ RIP ... LJFM
 
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sebolino
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:17 am

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 209):
I think they simply severely underestimated their ability to develope the new assembly procedures

You're right. Considering it's Boeing, it's a "simple" severe little mistake.  Smile
 
GBan
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:17 am

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 82):
And keep it mind , the PR did not say the delay would be 6 months, it said AT LEAST 6 MONTHS.



Quoting SirOmega (Reply 85):
Read the first post. No it didnt. You have a reading comprehension problem. The words "at least" didn't appear anywhere in the PR as quoted in the OP.



Quoting Nycbjr (Reply 87):
Unless I'm missing something I don't see an "At Least" anywhere in the press release.....

I cannot see "at least" either - in the press release. But we have it again in the FlightGlobal article:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-for-boeing-to-meet-northwest.html

Responding to the airframer's decision to push back initial deliveries -- slated for All Nippon Airways - by at least six months, ...

Where did they get this wording from?

 scratchchin 
 
haggis79
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:59 am

Quoting PHKLM (Reply 213):
Trains undergo cold-weather testing in large climate chambers, do these climate chambers exist for airliners?
I can't see why the test cannot be done indoors in the middle of the summer, unless it is required to perform a take of or landing under these circumstances.

well, I can't think of them not being required to perform a take off as well as a landing under extreme conditions.... that's what airliners are made for, isn't it?  Wink
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aa1818
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:00 pm

The real saving grace for Boeing would be to have the 787 outperform its expectations, but with problems like this in assembly, it seems the best they can do now is simply meet those performance targets.

What a shame Boeing, at least they will not have to eat many words, i remember them being very gracious about Airbus' troubles!!

AA1818
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
 
brendows
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:41 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 211):
There is an interesting post in the orders group which suggests that certification could be as late as October 2009. That comes from a usually very reliable member of the group. While I don´t believe that it will be Oct 2009 I think we won´t see any delivery before early 2009.

I reacted a bit when I read that post too, I found that estimate to be a little pessimistic, considering that the 77L wasn't used very intensively for large parts of the test program, and the second of the two test birds weren't doing much test flying at all really...
 
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scbriml
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:56 pm

Quoting GBan (Reply 217):
Where did they get this wording from?

Both Reuters and CNBC also used the phrase "at least six months". However, it doesn't appear in Boeing official PR.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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jonathan-l
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:09 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 221):
Both Reuters and CNBC also used the phrase "at least six months". However, it doesn't appear in Boeing official PR

Boeing has quoted that the delivery will occur in November or December (as opposed to May).
So from May to November is 6 months and from May to December is 7 months.
 
cygnuschicago
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:09 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 203):
Therefore, the window for 787 cold weather test has likely closed for the year 2008

Well, they can test in the southern hemisphere.

What level of cold do they require?

I'd guess New Zealand South Island would work. If you need to go colder, what about Marion Island or the Antarctic Peninsula (depending on the state of the airfields)?
If you cannot do the math, your opinion means squat!
 
texfly101
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:18 pm

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 150):
From my experience doing securities litigation work two summer ago, I can tell you that the US disclosure laws actually make it HARDER to have very candid communications with shareholders than with customers.

Yes, despite everything that the conspiracy theory advocates love to speculate about, all of the announcements and status updates were done in strict acordance with SEC considerations. You don't go throwing speculation around in the public as its potentially damaging, and that it was all that it was up until a few days ago as there had not been a consensus on what the delay amounted to. But, as is evident from the facts of the assembly process, when the delay was definite and there was consensus in upper level management, the announcement was quickly made to the public. Boeing is very aware of the high visibility that this program has. So it goes to say that they would do this in as legally correct a manner as possible. Remember that we're talking about the partners as well. Check it out, I think you will find that some of their stock prices dropped more than Boeing's. Don't do things by the book and you open yourself to lawsuits by them and penalties by the SEC. This is just an incredibly complex program that had too much new stuff to do in a too short compressed schedule. There is a philosophy right now in Boeing to try and shoot for the stars. To overreach knowingly. That way there is an impetus and drive to take risks to succeed. Even by failing, you learn a tremendous amount about the subject. Definitely Boeing has taken a huge gamble here but they have not failed. It should be evident that I don't agree with the naysayers who are basking in their "I told you so" attitudes right now. Quite the opposite. Today, the day after, Boeing engineers have come to work, sat at their desks and continued solving the problems before them. The same as the day before. This is not anything other than coming up with new dates that their work is due and working to those dates. There is no conspiracy to hide anything or to cover up any bad news. This plane will fly, will be a great success and the airlines will love it. I would say that the true judgement of this is that there will certainly be no airline that will cancel their order. That place in line is just too valuable to give up. No matter what the EIS date is. As has been shown by the A380, when an airline needs a particular type of plane, they are willing to wait. And as has been shown by the A380, manufacturers only deliver a plane when its right and ready. Airbus has done a great job and has tightened their belt, shouldered their load and done what it took to get it right, as will Boeing. You have to give both companies their due in that respect. They both make a hell of a product. I appreciate and admire them both and will never wish either anything other than my best wishes. Its great to watch these two companies getting ready to put in service two of the most exciting airplanes that aviation has ever seen. My hats off to the A380 and the B787.
 
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teme82
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:20 pm

I heard rumor that QF is wanting some compensation for the delay. Now if all 787 customers would follow QF then Boeing would be in big trouble right?
Flying high and low
 
Danny
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:23 pm

Quoting Teme82 (Reply 225):
I heard rumor that QF is wanting some compensation for the delay. Now if all 787 customers would follow QF then Boeing would be in big trouble right?

It depends how quickly they can ramp up production after (or even before) EIS and how many frames are delivered late. Also usually not any delay results in compensation only delay that exceed certain time. It is definitely to early to say.
 
sstsomeday
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:29 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
And it is now official - Boeing and Airbus both suck.

I'll be interested to see if the delivery schedule is also greatly abbreviated for the first few years of production after the first delivery.

And lets see how many Boeing executives sold stock prior to this announcement.  duck 
I come in peace
 
scrubbsywg
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:49 pm

Quoting Worldrider (Reply 205):
sex??? to me it looks more like little business jet, a flying fish..ahhh in plastic!!! errrkk!
just personal feeling.
the A380 is the beeaaast !!!

well, engineers tend to be enamoured by things other people find mundane. Have you looked at pictures of the trailing edge? the wing is very cool looking in that area, unlike most airliners i have ever seen. The only one that really compares that i have seen in pictures is the plane that lost the JSF contest.
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:57 pm

I think it is the old problem again of engineers versus marketing people.
I know that if I have to give an estimate for time needed for a job I'm extremely conservative and rather estimate too much (especially if I have never done the job before and don't know which snags might be waiting for me).
I rather estimate too much and get the job done faster than to get stuck and cause a delay.

Marketing people on the other hand tend to have a "can do, don't worry" mentality and tend to give irresponsible promises to the customers.

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
art
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:07 pm

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 56):
If the Airbus announces a delay of the A350XWB of 6 months between now and 2014, hopefully nobody will get too bent out of shape over it.

An optimist if ever I heard one! Unimaginable on a.net.

I wonder if Boeing has built any float into their 6-7 month delay announcement for unforeseeable problems. In other words, does Boeing see a 6-7 month delay + 0 months to cover unforeseen problems or perhaps a 4-5 month delay + 2 months to cover unforeseen problems.
 
slz396
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:10 pm

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 223):
They can test in the southern hemisphere.

Word has it there are no airports suitable for a large commercial airliner like the 787 in the extremely cold regions of the Southern hemisphere!

We are looking at places with daylight temperatures as low as MINUS 30 degrees centigrade!

I don't think New Zealand or South America has that kind of a climate and on Antartica, there are no suitable airports.
 
NYC777
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:18 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 206):
the plane will not be able to be tested for cold weather operations in the Artic, something required by the FAA/JAA and that therefore Boeing may have no option but to delay the EIS till early 2009, after they have had the chance to demonstrate the 787's ability to operate in extreme cold weather.

You couldn't have possibly written this with a straight face. You mean to tell me that there won't be a place on this Earth where the 787 can land in June, July or August to do cold weather testing?

Let me give you a hint...South America. Ohhhh now the light bulb goes off doesn't it Slz? We know you don't like Boeing and their products, but don't try and insult the intelligence of people here with stupid comments such as this.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
slz396
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:28 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 232):
You mean to tell me that there won't be a place on this Earth where the 787 can land in June, July or August to do cold weather testing?

I don't know, but leeham does seem to think so, now you tell me:
what airport has sustained negative temperatures of 30°C and below in the Southern hemisphere in the summer?

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 232):
Let me give you a hint...South America.

Good, now give us the 4 letter code of the suitable airport you have in mind, so we can check their summer climate to see if that equals that of Northern Canada or Siberia...

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 232):

Ohhhh now the light bulb goes off doesn't it Slz? We know you don't like Boeing and their products, but don't try and insult the intelligence of people here with stupid comments such as this.

For the moment the only thing that goes off, seems to be you really...
Careful not to end on the wrong side of the line AGAIN.
 
WINGS
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:29 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 232):
Let me give you a hint...South America. Ohhhh now the light bulb goes off doesn't it Slz? We know you don't like Boeing and their products, but don't try and insult the intelligence of people here with stupid comments such as this.

Where exactly would these tests be carried out? Which airfield? Please do enlighten me. You may not like what Slz396 wrote, but the reality is that he might actually have a point.

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
PHKLM
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:29 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 231):
I don't think New Zealand or South America has that kind of a climate

By no means. Even in winter you would find those temperatures only at night and high up in the mountains. The Southernmost airport in the world that would be capable of handling the 787 is either USH or PUQ.
It gets cold there in winter, but we are talking about -5 to -10 'C, so that won't be enough.
A better shot would be an airport on the altiplano, like LPB, where it can get to -20 'C at night. I don't know whether tests have to be done during the day, but they could get this to work if they take the huge risk of waiting for that single particular night in Bolivia when temperatures drop below -20'C at night.
To be honest, I think the Southern Hemisphere is a no-go. Take your atlas and look up the latitude of USH (around 53' South), now look up 53' North and you will get why it doesn't get that cold at sea level in the Southern Hemisphere.
 
PHKLM
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:33 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 232):
Let me give you a hint...South America. Ohhhh now the light bulb goes off doesn't it Slz? We know you don't like Boeing and their products, but don't try and insult the intelligence of people here with stupid comments such as this

Sorry but with this arrogant and ignorant statement you make a complete fool out of yourself. I wonder why you have an RR of 13 when posting such utter BS. Let me give you a hint: better check your facts next time.
 
Danny
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:34 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 232):
You mean to tell me that there won't be a place on this Earth where the 787 can land in June, July or August to do cold weather testing?

NYC777 - please point out a suitable airport that has temperatures of -30C and lower in June, July or August.
 
boo25
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:41 pm

No huge surprise here then....

For an airliner that was rolled out and then dismantled, it's maybe obvious that the marketing push came a little early in the game.

It's a shame, and are we going to see this with the launch of every new airliner now, with perhaps marketing and saving face coming before technical compliance and approval ?

It's obvious that with their first totally new products for 10-15 years, the heat is on between Boeing and Airbus, but you could risk losing your name a touch if you don't convince the millions of people travelling on your planes that you are happy yourself with the safety aspect of the design of the aircraft.......
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:46 pm

Quoting Teme82 (Reply 225):
I heard rumor that QF is wanting some compensation for the delay. Now if all 787 customers would follow QF then Boeing would be in big trouble right?

We will likely see a bunch more 777 orders coming in, as Boeing just cuts folks great deals as Airbus did with the A330 to appease A380 customers.

As for cold weather testing, just put the damn thing in a hangar and fire-up the AC. If it works for a deep space probe, it should be good enough for a 787.

Seriously, if Boeing could not complete certification for 18 months, then they would have said so because not only would they look as dumb as Airbus did with the constant rolling delays, but the stockholders are going to eat them alive because after Airbus' problems, Boeing's execs know full-well what the results would be for the stock price if they did the same.
 
PHKLM
Posts: 788
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2005 7:28 pm

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:01 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 239):
As for cold weather testing, just put the damn thing in a hangar and fire-up the AC. If it works for a deep space probe, it should be good enough for a 787

I hope this would be a possibility for Boeing. Therefore I was asking, can it be done inside? Or does it have to perform "real" operations like take-off and landing in those circumstances.
South America is not an option, Embraer from Brazil performs it's cold weather tests in Alaska... http://www.alaskaaerofuel.com/cwt.html
 
OHLHD
Posts: 2903
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2004 6:02 am

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:55 pm

As I said before. Rather delayed then unsafe. I expected the delay somehow but I am sure ( like Airbus) that they sort this out.  Smile
 
socalfive
Posts: 474
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2001 5:37 am

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:06 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 3):
'Terrible. I'm so disappointed in Boeing for allowing this to happen. They better get their s**t together and make sure this doesn't happen again!

Oh please, there is hardly a single time that Boeing, Airbus, MD, or even Lockheed hasn't experienced delays in rolling out new technologies. I said this same exact thing back on the 380. No new product line is an exact science in the beginning, lots of bugs regardless of how it originally looked on paper. [
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 22645
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:43 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 132):
If rumours are correct on EK going for 100 A350s AND with the 787 now being in deep trouble, the Dubai Airshow will be even more of a one man show than Paris was this year!

Slz396 plays the exaggeration card. I'll think it's in deep trouble when BA has to restate earnings. Till then, this is an unfortunate bump in the road.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 153):
Issues is the travelled work and parts availability which is driving the delay

Notice how we went from "fasteners" to "parts". What parts are we now talking about? Wing boxes? Landing gears? Flight computers?

Quoting CygnusChicago (Reply 166):
Sorry XT6Wagon, you're one of those that shot the messenger. Now, the messenger turns out to be right.

Yes, and a stopped clock is right twice a day. For some balance, here are some quotes from the great messenger John Leahy.

Quoting Danny (Reply 203):
"First flight won’t happen until the end of the first quarter (maybe) and delivery is now hoped for by the
end of November or in December 2008. "
...
"Therefore, the window for 787 cold weather test has likely closed for the year 2008"
...
"This would imply that deliveries of the Dreamliner can not begin in late November or December 2008 as Boeing now is announcing. It's far more likely that first delivery of the 787 will occur in March 2009, at the earliest and after a thourough evaluation of the cold-soak tests."

Umm, when it's hot in the northern hemisphere, it's cold in the southern hemisphere...
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
LHRBlueSkies
Posts: 321
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2007 4:23 am

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:43 pm

Well, all I can say is Ha Ha, Simpsons style!

2 great companies, brought down to earth.....now, less bragging and more building!
flying is the safest form of transport - until humans get involved!
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:45 pm

Quoting LHRBlueSkies (Reply 244):
2 great companies, brought down to earth.....now, less bragging and more building!

Yup. Both have now been hung on their own Petards and now, properly chastised, can focus on getting things done.
 
NADC10Fan
Posts: 117
Joined: Wed May 11, 2005 5:03 am

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:48 pm

Quoting PHKLM (Reply 240):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 239):
As for cold weather testing, just put the damn thing in a hangar and fire-up the AC. If it works for a deep space probe, it should be good enough for a 787

I hope this would be a possibility for Boeing. Therefore I was asking, can it be done inside? Or does it have to perform "real" operations like take-off and landing in those circumstances.
South America is not an option, Embraer from Brazil performs it's cold weather tests in Alaska... http://www.alaskaaerofuel.com/cwt.html

It may indeed be possible. Found the following from SAE International (www.sae.org):

Quoting Fair Use Excerpt:
Construction of the lab was launched in 1943 and completed in 1947, after Lt. Col. Ashley McKinley developed the idea of using a refrigerated hangar to test aircraft under conditions of extreme cold. The test lab quickly met McKinley’s forecast of a 10 times cost savings compared to outdoor testing in uncontrollable weather, according to the USAF.

In addition to purely cold temperatures, the lab can produce snow in any quantity and of whatever character required for the test, from dense, wet, heavy snow to light, powdery snow, according to Kirk Velasco, Director of the McKinley Climatic Lab. It can also produce freezing rain and icing clouds to test deicing systems.

Since launching as a cold-weather lab, the McKinley facility has added all kinds of weather to its capabilities, with torrential rain, baking heat, hurricane-force wind, and driving dust and sandstorms among its repertoire. The lab’s main chamber can produce a range of temperatures between -65 and +165°F, while ancillary chambers can simulate rainfall at a rate of 25 in/h and produce withering bright light to simulate days that the tested equipment might sit in the desert.

The McKinley lab not only tests the effects of cold and snowfall on vehicles sitting on the ground; it is also able to test aircraft as if they are in fl ight. Jacks prop up aircraft so they can retract and extend their landing gear, and an exhaust extractor expels the hot jet exhaust from one running engine. An “air make-up system” provides a continuous supply of chilled incoming air to replace the air consumed by the running engine. The system has enough capacity to accommodate the 40,000 ft³/min airflow of an F-16 running on afterburner, said Velasco.

The entire article may be found at http://www.sae.org/aeromag/techfocus/04-2005/2-25-3-20.pdf

I don't know for certain whether or not this particular building could be used for the 787; but the possibility is that if one such exists, more may as well. Worth looking into, at any rate. (I dare say the "air make-up system" they tout would be woefully inadequate to test the 787's engines at the same time - but those appear to have already been so tested at a facility at Mirabel, Canada (http://www.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/highlights/2007/0706mirabel_e.html).

Food for thought, gentlemen!

[Edited 2007-10-11 09:50:19]
TANSTAAFL!
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:48 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 243):
Umm, when it's hot in the northern hemisphere, it's cold in the southern hemisphere...

Yep, but sadly for Boeing, there is only water or desolated land at those latitudes where it is sufficiently cold then.

That's why even Embraer does their cold testing in Canada.
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:53 pm

Quoting NADC10Fan (Reply 246):
Food for thought, gentlemen!

Indeed.

Wonder is some actual flying needs to be done, in which case they'll need some facilities hangar for sure!

The 787 could become the first commercial aircraft to fly indoor.:D

The fact that no commercial airliner has made use of this, despite it existing for almost 50 years already, may suggest not all testing can be conducted in such a facility and some real world tests need to be done as well, making the whole effort of first going indoor and then outdoor pointless.

[Edited 2007-10-11 09:57:11]

[Edited 2007-10-11 09:58:38]
 
PHKLM
Posts: 788
Joined: Mon Dec 26, 2005 7:28 pm

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 5:04 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 248):
Wonder is some actual flying needs to be done.

Well, ascending to FLT 400 will make it pretty cold, wouldn't it?
I don't believe flying is part of the cold weather tests. I think it is merely airport operations, and to see weather all systems function properly when they are started in a frozen state. Again, I am not 100% about this.
I am 100% sure about the South America thing though.
 
VS11
Posts: 1519
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2001 6:34 am

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Thu Oct 11, 2007 5:24 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 245):
Yup. Both have now been hung on their own Petards and now, properly chastised, can focus on getting things done.

Assuming that this is the only and final "bump in the road" for 787. I would expect that this is just the beginning of bad news for 787 EIS.

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