dc10bhx
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Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:56 pm

Has there been any discussion / decision regarding what BA will be doing with their 767 and 747 fleets which are being replaced by the A380 and 787 purchase? I know the new frames are not due until 2010 and onwards but is it possible that the MOD will contemplate taking the frames being replaced to assist with the shortfall in current transport the RAF are
having with their fleets at the moment.

Here at BHX this morning we had two medevac flights in with wounded going to one of our local hospitals. One of the flights at least was a C17 (bearing in mind the RAF only have 4 with a fifth due for delivery next year) it would seem that with the age of the VC-10 fleet and the L1011 fleet they might be looking for additional frames to handle the purely transport role.

Should the moderators feel this would be better discussed in the Military forum please feel free to transfer across. I have posted here in case anyone has any information on Civil operators.
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Stitch
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:57 pm

Most likely they will be sold to conversion companies and turned into 747-400BCFs and 767-300BCFs.
 
StarGoldLHR
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Wed Oct 10, 2007 5:03 pm

I thought the MOD was buying the 767's for tanker conversion or did they buy new A330's instead ?


I think in the next few years there's going to be a glut of 767's on the second hand market.

I wouldnt be surprised to see the rise of the "long distance" budget charter airlines to places in the caribbean from europe or the mediterreanean from the US.

Maybe even growth to South America.
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AirTranTUS
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:03 pm

They are going to have to keep some 747's, unless they plan on running 2x 787's to PHX (which is not A380 certified).
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Leskova
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Wed Oct 10, 2007 7:08 pm

Quoting AirTranTUS (Reply 3):
They are going to have to keep some 747's, unless they plan on running 2x 787's to PHX (which is not A380 certified).

Since they're not doing that, I'd say it's either B777, B787 or A350 - depending on whatever BA orders in the next round of orders.
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vv701
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Wed Oct 10, 2007 11:16 pm

Quoting Leskova (Reply 4):
Quoting AirTranTUS (Reply 3):
They are going to have to keep some 747's, unless they plan on running 2x 787's to PHX (which is not A380 certified).

Since they're not doing that

BA have not announced any retirement plans for any of its 744 fleet and I think it most unlikely that they will not be operating the 744 in ten years time.

In the BA 2006-07 Annual Report they clearly stated that it was their policy to operate aircraft for between 15 and 25 years. Clearly long haul aircraft complete fewer rotations than short haul aircraft do in any given time period. So the 744 would almost certainly be expected to remain in service for nearer to 25 than 15 years

So how old is their 744 fleet? As many as eighteen of their 57 744s are under ten years old. The oldest of these eighteen aircraft is G-CIVO (28849/1135) delivered on 5 December 2007 or 9 years and two months ago. Their youngest 744 is G-BYGG (28859/1212) delivered on 16 April 1999. It is 8 years 6 months old.

History reveals that the airline's first 741s (operated initially by BOAC) all remained in service for more than 28 years. G-AWNA (19761/23) was delivered on 22 April 1970 and decommissioned on 14 November 1998. G-AWNB (19762/41) was delivered on 22 May 1970 and decommissioned on 28 September 1998. G-AWNC (19763/48) was delivered on 29 June 1970 and recommissioned on 20 November 1998.

It seems unlikely that any of BA's 744s will remain in service for another eighteen or nineteen years. But fifteen years is possible and it seems to me almost certain that some will still be flying for BA at the end of 2017.
 
kaitak744
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:23 am

They have 12 firm orders for the A380 and 7 options.

With the initial 12:
1x HKG, 1x NRT, 1x JNB, 1x LAX, 1x SYD/SIN.

Final:
LAX: 2x A380 --==-- 4 planes
SIN/SYD: 2x A380 --==-- 6 planes
JNB: 1x A380 + 1x B744 --==-- 2 planes (A380s)
HKG: 2x A380 + 1x B744 --==-- 4 planes (A380s)
NRT: 1 x A380 + 1 B744 --==-- 2 planes (A380s)
+1 spare.

19 A380s total.

So, 19 of their oldest 747s are most likely to be replaced. BA did say they were looking for "replacement aircraft".
The 787s will most probably provide for expansion to places like KUL, SAN, JED, ect.
 
vv701
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Thu Oct 11, 2007 5:43 pm

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 6):
They have 12 firm orders for the A380 and 7 options.

With the initial 12:
1x HKG, 1x NRT, 1x JNB, 1x LAX, 1x SYD/SIN.

Final:
LAX: 2x A380 --==-- 4 planes
SIN/SYD: 2x A380 --==-- 6 planes
JNB: 1x A380 + 1x B744 --==-- 2 planes (A380s)
HKG: 2x A380 + 1x B744 --==-- 4 planes (A380s)
NRT: 1 x A380 + 1 B744 --==-- 2 planes (A380s)
+1 spare.

19 A380s total.

Currently BA operate three daily 744 flights to LAX (BA279, BA283 and BA269). Replacing all three with 2 380s would result in a reduction in seats offered but replacing one of the 744s with a 380 would give a useful boost to volume without being over ambitious.

However BA would not require to devote 2 380s to the LHR-LAX-LHR route to offer a daily service. Although the aircraft returning from LAX arrives too late to fly back to LAX the same day it arrives in plenty of time to operate any of the other possible flights identified by Kaitak744. Similarly all of these flights return to LHR in time for the aircraft to be used on any of the LAX services.

Let's look at an actual example from earlier this month:

744 G-CIVC operated BA279 LHR-LAX on Mon 1 October departing at 10.05am and arriving at 1.10pm that day .
744 G-CIVC operated BA278 LAX-LHR on Mon 1 October departing at 3.35pm and arriving at 9.45am the next day.
744 G-CIVC operated BA007 LHR-NRT on Tue 2 October departing at 3.45pm and arriving at 9.15am the next day.
744 G-CIVC operated BA008 NRT-LHR on Wed 3 October departing at 1.20pm and arriving at 5.15pm that day.
744 G-CIVC operated BA031 LHR-HKG on Wed 3 October departing at 9.15pm and arriving at 4.10pm the next day.
744 G-CIVC operated BA032 HKG-LHR on Thurs 4 October departing at 11.40pm and arriving at 5.35am the next day.
744 G-CIVC operated BA279 LHR-LAX on Fri 5 October departing at 10.05am and arriving at 1.10pm that day.
744 G-CIVC operated BA278 LAX-LHR on Fri 5 October departing at 3.35pm and arriving at 9.45am the next day.

So rather than operating one complete rotation every other day, G-CIVC operated four complete rotations in five days equivalent to a 60 per cent productivity gain. But this productivity gain can only be achieved across the entire fleet if there is approximate equivalency in the number of west bound and east bound rotations. This is because most east bound departures from LHR are later in the day while most west bound departures are earlier in the day with early morning returns to LHR.

So I conclude that with the orders and options BA have for the 380 they will offer more services than those listed. But which? Time will tell.
 
kaneporta1
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Thu Oct 11, 2007 5:58 pm

Any information on the fate of the shorthaul 767s? Will they be eventually replaced by 787-3 (or 8s) or BA's intra-European widebody service will come to an end with the retirement of these airplanes?
That would mean they will be replaced by A320s and A321s maybe with added frequency, even though the short haul 767s are based in LHR (I think) and it would be hard to get more short haul frequency out of that place...
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daron4000
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Thu Oct 11, 2007 10:17 pm

I think you will not see BA send an A380 to SIN/SYD until they can successfully fill a 744 on that same route (currently serviced by a 777).

Maybe 10 years ago, BA would have done it for pride/competitive sake but not anymore, its about profitability and that would be a huge waste of a 100 million dolllar + airplane.
 
egnr
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:21 pm

Quoting StarGoldLHR (Reply 2):
I thought the MOD was buying the 767's for tanker conversion or did they buy new A330's instead ?

The A330 was selected by the MOD.
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Gemuser
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Fri Oct 12, 2007 3:07 am

Quoting Daron4000 (Reply 9):
think you will not see BA send an A380 to SIN/SYD until they can successfully fill a 744 on that same route (currently serviced by a 777).

They fill a B744 quite successfully every day, they also pretty successfully fill a B772 every day too!

Given BA's emphasis on premium pax, I agree that SYD will not be high on BA's list for the A380, except that IF SIN is high on that list then a SYD tag may very well work. Somehow I cannot see SYD reduced to one B772 a day. I think complete dropping of SYD is more likely than that.

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Bongodog1964
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Fri Oct 12, 2007 3:27 am

My opinions for what they are worth

The days of the MOD bailing out BA by taking surplus aircraft off their hands and long gone; the big problem at the MOD is that we have a government that likes to save the World, but doesn't like providing the equipment to do it, so little chance of anything other than the A330's at the moment.

With regard to the BA 767's and 747's

The 747's are likely to find a home in the freight or charter market.

but I can see little hope for the 767's, they are RR powered examples, of which there are very few, this counts against them. In addition by the time BA starts to retire them, the market will be awash with used 767's retired by early recipients of 787's. Likely outcome ~ beer cans  drunk 
 
GDB
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Fri Oct 12, 2007 2:53 pm

Clearly, the initial B747's to go will be the G-BNL- group, delivered from 1989 onwards, these are now high time aircraft, by the time of replacement there will probably be lower cycle 744's around for freighter conversion, I see them being broken up most likely.
Ditto for 767's too.

767's of course are unusual in having RR engines, the 744's less so, but even then they are a small percentage of the worldwide 744 fleet.
 
cofannyc
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:02 pm

Quoting GDB (Reply 13):
Clearly, the initial B747's to go will be the G-BNL- group, delivered from 1989 onwards, these are now high time aircraft, by the time of replacement there will probably be lower cycle 744's around for freighter conversion, I see them being broken up most likely.

I certainly agree with your conclusion, BA will be replacing the 1989-1991 manufacture 744s first and they are most likely going to be broken up.

All of the big 747-400 operators are all looking at their fleet plans and most have already ordered new widebodied equipment. There will be a significant number of 747-400s that will be dropped from existing fleets as this new capacity is delivered. This is going to lead to a significant oversupply of early manufacture 744s around the time that BA is going to be retiring its fleet. I don't really see a freighter conversion exit for these aircraft.

Of course not all of the A380s and 787s are going to replace 744s on a tail by tail basis. The newer model 744s will certainly stay in the fleet. My comments above apply to the oldest 744s in BA's fleet.
 
DavidByrne
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RE: Thoughts On Disposal Of BA's 767 & 747

Fri Oct 12, 2007 10:52 pm

Quoting VV701 (Reply 7):
744 G-CIVC operated BA279 LHR-LAX on Mon 1 October departing at 10.05am and arriving at 1.10pm that day .
744 G-CIVC operated BA278 LAX-LHR on Mon 1 October departing at 3.35pm and arriving at 9.45am the next day.
744 G-CIVC operated BA007 LHR-NRT on Tue 2 October departing at 3.45pm and arriving at 9.15am the next day.
744 G-CIVC operated BA008 NRT-LHR on Wed 3 October departing at 1.20pm and arriving at 5.15pm that day.
744 G-CIVC operated BA031 LHR-HKG on Wed 3 October departing at 9.15pm and arriving at 4.10pm the next day.
744 G-CIVC operated BA032 HKG-LHR on Thurs 4 October departing at 11.40pm and arriving at 5.35am the next day.
744 G-CIVC operated BA279 LHR-LAX on Fri 5 October departing at 10.05am and arriving at 1.10pm that day.
744 G-CIVC operated BA278 LAX-LHR on Fri 5 October departing at 3.35pm and arriving at 9.45am the next day.

So rather than operating one complete rotation every other day, G-CIVC operated four complete rotations in five days equivalent to a 60 per cent productivity gain.

Actually, just to be picky, it's three complete rotations in four days, since on Day 5 they're back to the starting point as on Day 1.
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