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keesje
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Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 2:40 pm

Emirates already looked at the seatcounts : 531 seats in a three-class layout, around 700 in a two-class layout.



"To stretch the aircraft would be a $2-5 billion investment. We'd take it straight away"

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...happy-with-747-8i-performance.html

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/photos/big/00006210.jpg
Source : http://www.cardatabase.net/modifieda...rch.php?aircraft=Airbus%20A380-900

Not sure if this is a -900 or -1000  Wink
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CJAContinental
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 2:56 pm

Yeah then he'll be pushing airbus for an A380-1000, demanding a 95m goliath just for the sake of it being big, and then for the consideration of passengers, he'll throw in a swimming pool as well. To me this is just typical of Emirates' extravagence, and I think Clark is overrated; the only reason emirates looks good, (though I have to say the cargo division is excellent when compared to others), is due to the infinate amount of money being thrown in.

It would be interesting to see which routes they would use them on though, The only ones that come to mind for me are LHR and JFK. My decisions are based on potential capacity on those routes, I guess somewhere where they can get a lot of demand, perhaps maybe india, or china.
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Glareskin
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 2:58 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
"To stretch the aircraft would be a $2-5 billion investment. We'd take it straight away"

I believe him. But the question is who else would take it? And more importantly: how many should Airbus sell to break-even? And will they have a better overall sales with the A380 program if they would bring the -900?
Of course this would also bring the -F back on the table since this is the same wing. Which a-net bean counter could do some calculations here?
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yellowtail
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 3:02 pm

we have to admit...the -900 is far better looking than its 800 sister.....
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NYC777
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 3:06 pm

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 3):
we have to admit...the -900 is far better looking than its 800 sister.....

Agreed it is better proportioned wtih the tail and the huge wings. I think EK would take it and a couple of other airlines but it would serve niche markets and I don't think it would sell in ver large numbers. But it is a better looking aircraft!!!

The A388 reminds me of the 747SP!
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keesje
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 3:06 pm

Quoting CJAContinental (Reply 1):
The only ones that come to mind for me are LHR and JFK. My decisions are based on potential capacity on those routes, I guess somewhere where they can get a lot of demand, perhaps maybe india, or china.

  

Emirates Closing In On 100 Flights/Week To India
https://www.airliners.net/discussions...eneral_aviation/read.main/3676570/

Macro I think we are seeing the combined middle classes of India and China (~600 million) saving money to make trips and manufacturing of about everything moving to Asia. Emirates also has some holiday opportunities under development.



I believe the bigger A380-900 will ultimately be the best-selling variant

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/336610_a380bigger24.html

 Wink

[Edited 2007-10-29 08:19:19]
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 3:29 pm

Some earlier discussion on this topic and article is available at Emirates Seeks A380 And 747-8 Weight Control (by EI321 Oct 27 2007 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Not sure if this is a -900 or -1000.  Wink

Have to be a 1000 since the -900 has a door forward of the window belt on the upper deck.  Smile
 
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keesje
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 3:33 pm

Adam Pilarski, lead analyst for the Avitas aviation consulting firm,



The A380 is a plane that is itching to be stretched. The wing is so huge that the plane looks weird, the A380 will be a flop if it is not stretched.

P.S. I think I just discovered a new tabloid like way to make comments more personal / catchy ..  cutie 
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Francoflier
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 3:46 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
"To stretch the aircraft would be a $2-5 billion investment. We'd take it straight away"

If he's so eager to get it, and if the stretch is so easy, why doesn't he just give Airbus the 2.5 Bn to get his toy? Sounds like petty cash to him.
Right now I think Airbus will want to wait for the water to cool down a bit before they throw another 2.5 Bn in the project. And in any case, Airbus' investors would probably think twice, or wait to see some return on their initial investment first.

I personally believe the -900 will be a commercially viable reality someday, but not before a few years.
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 3:49 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
Have to be a 1000 since the -900 has a door forward of the window belt on the upper deck.

And I thought I was a geek!  wink 

It does look too long to be the -900 which would be pushing the max 80m length.
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 4:01 pm

Keesje, allow me to add my own pictorial contribution  Smile

Big version: Width: 1000 Height: 750 File size: 119kb
A380-900
 
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keesje
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 4:22 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 10):
Keesje, allow me to add my own pictorial contribution

You need good eyes & a high res monitor for that one  Wink would it be possible to add a A380-1000?

Lenght would be 85m like the proposed 747-600X. or just about the maximum length of an aircraft that can turn around between existing terminals (85.9m).

In a BA configuration it could probably seat 525 passengers  Smile
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olle
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 5:38 pm

Airbus would be stupid not start with the -900. Wait 15 years and the -1000 comes as well.
 
OO-VEG
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 6:57 pm

Quoting CJAContinental (Reply 1):
ough I have to say the cargo division is excellent when compared to others

Emirates Cargo is an administrative mess. I did business with them for some time and they always lost paperwork and are incapable of weighing their shipments correctly.
 
JAAlbert
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:01 pm

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 3):
we have to admit...the -900 is far better looking than its 800 sister.....

I agree. Economical or not, the plane needs to be stretched for purely aesthetic reasons.

That being said . . . .

Quoting Keesje (Reply 7):
The A380 is a plane that is itching to be stretched. The wing is so huge that the plane looks weird, the A380 will be a flop if it is not stretched.

Jeez, since when do analyists base success on a plane's look? I'd think economy, noise, range, comfort are the more typical standards used to judge an aircraft's value!
 
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keesje
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:24 pm



“There is no doubt that we will order the stretched A380. What we’ve got now is the mini version,” says Maurice Flanagan, vicechairman, Emirates group.

http://www.leeham.net/filelib/A380Flt.pdf
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Rheinbote
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:33 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
(quoting Clark)"To stretch the aircraft would be a $2-5 billion investment. We'd take it straight away"

If it is such a brilliant investment go ahead and put the money right on the table.
 
luisca
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:37 pm

The stretch is gorgeous; and this coming from a guy that has always thought that the A388 is a flying Rosie O'Donnell, it probably has a CASM to die for too.
If it ain't Boeing (or Embraer ;-)) I ain't Going!
 
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:43 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 7):
P.S. I think I just discovered a new tabloid like way to make comments more personal / catchy ..  cutie 

Except those on dial-up might not enjoy the wait to pull down all the headshots.  Smile
 
killjoy
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 8:55 pm

Quoting Luisca (Reply 17):
it probably has a CASM to die for too

Especially with Trent XWB engines. It might be smart to combine this with a -800 upgrade 10 years from now.
 
etfokker50
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:01 pm

You know, maybe the airline industry should make things more modular like the train industry is going... If they need more capacity, just add an extra carriage / unit in...
How about a couple of extra frames in the A380-800s as a mid-life renovation?  Smile
 
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:07 pm

Quoting Killjoy (Reply 19):
Quoting Luisca (Reply 17):
it probably has a CASM to die for too

Especially with Trent XWB engines. It might be smart to combine this with a -800 upgrade 10 years from now.

I've always though the A388 was either five years too early or five years too late.  Smile

I wonder how easy it would be to hang a set of those new Trents on her, remake the skin of composite and not Aluminium and put in the little A350XWB things like dimming windows etc.

Also begs the question - what happens in fifteen years when the first of the A388s start to be replaced with A389s? Will they keep them or just rotate the whole fleet and flog them off to charter airlines? Who knows what carriers may look to snap them up?
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keesje
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 9:24 pm

James Wallace, SeattlePI


If you think the A380 is big now, just wait.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/336610_a380bigger24.html

  

[Edited 2007-10-29 14:25:32]
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gkirk
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 10:18 pm

Yet it would still not be the largest a/c flying  Wink
Gotta love those Ukrainians  Wink
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 10:18 pm

Quoting Luisca (Reply 17):
it probably has a CASM to die for too

Particularly with the Trent XWB.
 
alangirvan
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 10:19 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
Also begs the question - what happens in fifteen years when the first of the A388s start to be replaced with A389s? Will they keep them or just rotate the whole fleet and flog them off to charter airlines? Who knows what carriers may look to snap them up?

They will be used by Virgin Atlantic and TCD to Florida and the West Indies. Maybe Oriental Thai?
 
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keesje
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 11:28 pm

Ned Laird, Managing Director Air Cargo Management Group



Airbus will eventually develop a freighter version of the A380, but it will be based on a stretched version of the plane known as the A380-900. http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/305776_airbus02.html
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Mon Oct 29, 2007 11:51 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
Except those on dial-up might not enjoy the wait to pull down all the headshots.

Firefox with AdBlock - eliminating all those people pics reduces scrolling in this thread by 20% or so :-P .

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 16):
If it is such a brilliant investment go ahead and put the money right on the table.

Sooner or later EK will probably do that. No doubt they will buy at least 20 A389s the second Airbus actually launches it. Heck, EK would probably even order a 100-meter long 1500-seat A380-9999, seeing as how at least JXB should be able to handle it  Silly . But as said before, the question is who else would be a potential candidate for an A380-900. Granted, I could see a few carriers that could require a handful of such beasts, but would the numbers add up for Airbus to justify $2-5 billion in expenses, even including a mega-order by EK? I'm not really convinced of that.
 
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:03 am

Quoting CJAContinental (Reply 1):
and I think Clark is overrated; the only reason emirates looks good, (though I have to say the cargo division is excellent when compared to others), is due to the infinate amount of money being thrown in.

The Airline looks good because it is profitable and a world class experience. I disagree that Clark is overated. Despite the continuous talking, what he says is important to Airbus and Boeing.
 
Fly2CHC
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:31 am

Quoting CJAContinental (Reply 1):
the only reason emirates looks good, (though I have to say the cargo division is excellent when compared to others), is due to the infinate amount of money being thrown in.

You don't know what you are talking about...have a look at their accounts and financial planning documents. They are doing well because they are well managed, have great foresight, and are leveraging well off favourable bilateral conitions.
 
alangirvan
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 3:06 am

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 27):
But as said before, the question is who else would be a potential candidate for an A380-900. Granted, I could see a few carriers that could require a handful of such beasts, but would the numbers add up for Airbus to justify $2-5 billion in expenses, even including a mega-order by EK? I'm not really convinced of that.

Any airline that flies between UK and Australia. If SQ starts filling 471 seats on each of their three daily services between LHR and SIN, and their three daily services between SIN and SYD, then a bigger plane would be handy. It will only be a matter of years before EK starts flying four times daily into SYD. SQ and EK are surrounded by airlines who are in the same market, whether they are TG or MH or QR or EY - they are all flying people between UK and Australia. It maybe only a few airlines who can afford this huge plane, but they will place large orders.
 
alangirvan
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 3:08 am

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 27):
But as said before, the question is who else would be a potential candidate for an A380-900. Granted, I could see a few carriers that could require a handful of such beasts, but would the numbers add up for Airbus to justify $2-5 billion in expenses, even including a mega-order by EK? I'm not really convinced of that.

Any airline that flies between UK and Australia. If SQ starts filling 471 seats on each of their three daily services between LHR and SIN, and their three daily services between SIN and SYD, then a bigger plane would be handy. It will only be a matter of years before EK starts flying four times daily into SYD. SQ and EK are surrounded by airlines who are in the same market, whether they are TG or MH or QR or EY - they are all flying people between UK and Australia. It maybe only a few airlines who can afford this huge plane, but they will place large orders.
 
gigneil
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 3:24 am

Quoting CJAContinental (Reply 1):
due to the infinate amount of money being thrown in.

Perhaps you can point to that money in their financial reports?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 7):
P.S. I think I just discovered a new tabloid like way to make comments more personal / catchy ..

Its obnoxious as hell, increases total load time, and adds additional load to all those servers. It also contributes nothing whatsoever to the thread.

Please stop it.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 26):
irbus will eventually develop a freighter version of the A380, but it will be based on a stretched version of the plane known as the A380-900.

That's ridiculous. Freighters are almost always based on a smaller family member so that they can carry payload as opposed to fuse weight.

NS
 
777STL
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 3:41 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 32):
That's ridiculous. Freighters are almost always based on a smaller family member so that they can carry payload as opposed to fuse weight.

I agree. Doesn't the sheer size of the 388 only make it viable for low weight density package operations? That is the plane has more space than it can effectively load due to weight restrictions. In that case I couldn't imagine the restrictions on a 389.
PHX based
 
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Francoflier
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 4:13 am

Here's a business idea...

Let EK finance the development cost of the stretch, and in return they get the first 8 or so frames in return for the investment.
Then Airbus is left with a certified stretched version of the thing to market to anyone who'd want it, and it's already paid itself.

 dopey  Business is so easy, ain't it?
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JoKeR
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 9:32 am

I have a feeling that Airbus will make a "major" announcement at the Dubai Airshow and that the A389 will become a reality soon.... maybe Airbus will tell EK that they will go ahead with the A389 as long as they buy the A350... and in huuuuge quantities as well! Big grin
 
scouseflyer
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 9:45 am

Whilst this is a corking looking plane - it's what the A380 always should of been, I can't help but wonder whether developing this variant would have much net effect on sales. Yes Ek would order say 25 or them but would they just swap A388 commitments for A389 ones which would mean that Airbus would have to spend cash to stand still.

Maybe when the A350 is being delivered the A389 will be launched as part of a mid-life upgrade to the A388, as described above would consist of weight reduction programme, new engines and the F, R and -900 versions?
 
PADSpot
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 9:48 am

Quoting Francoflier (Reply 34):
Let EK finance the development cost of the stretch, and in return they get the first 8 or so frames in return for the investment.
Then Airbus is left with a certified stretched version of the thing to market to anyone who'd want it, and it's already paid itself.

I thought of that just a second before I read your post  Silly
 
parapente
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 10:15 am

In the next 6-12 months there are a set of major "battles" between the 748i and the 388. I feel sure that Airbus will wait to see the outcome of these (and thus the future of the 748i) before moving on to bigger things.
 
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 10:24 am

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 3):
we have to admit...the -900 is far better looking than its 800 sister.....

No kidding. Very slick.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 32):

Its obnoxious as hell, increases total load time, and adds additional load to all those servers. It also contributes nothing whatsoever to the thread.

Please stop it.

Second.
Picked a hell of a week to quit sniffing glue.
 
art
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 10:42 am

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 27):
the question is who else would be a potential candidate for an A380-900.

Quite a few of the as yet non-existent long haul carriers that will be hauling Indians, Chinese and other Asians around the world in 10 years time. I can foresee a need for 100+ ultra low CASM 800 seat long haul aircraft to serve the Asian tourist market in the next 10-15 years.
 
Burkhard
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:26 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
Who knows what carriers may look to snap them up?

China domestic market needs 200 VLA in 2020.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:21 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 26):
Airbus will eventually develop a freighter version of the A380, but it will be based on a stretched version of the plane known as the A380-900.

Well FX and 5X likely would take a score between them, but with the lukewarm response the A380F has received so far from those hauling "dense" cargo, a freighter with an even poorer cargo density ratio does not strike me as one that has a very promising future...
 
ebj1248650
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 2:27 pm

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 2):
I believe him. But the question is who else would take it? And more importantly: how many should Airbus sell to break-even? And will they have a better overall sales with the A380 program if they would bring the -900?
Of course this would also bring the -F back on the table since this is the same wing. Which a-net bean counter could do some calculations here?

O.K. here's a new question: Would Airbus sell more freighters if they were based on the -900 instead of the -800? And I too wonder what other airline would need the -900 model.

Question 2: Does break even take in the -900 alone or would Airbus calculate break even based on sales of both airplanes; i.e. figure in overall program costs and then calculate break even point?
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columba
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 2:30 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Not sure if this is a -900 or -1000 Wink

Looks much better !!!!!!!!!!!
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 2:49 pm

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 43):
O.K. here's a new question: Would Airbus sell more freighters if they were based on the -900 instead of the -800?

Unlikely.

The A380-800F's extra 13mt of payload is nice, but the entire payload had to be of a lower density (lighter in unit of weight per unit of volume) then what a 747-8F can handle. An A380-900 would carry even more, but that payload would require an even lower density.
 
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keesje
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:57 pm

Tony Tyler CEO CX



If Airbus stretched the plane to fit more passengers, or increased its take-off weight to extend its range we might buy. Either of those options would make it more economic and more competitive from our point of view

http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBas...idUSN3022007420071030?pageNumber=1
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Areopagus
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:18 am

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 23):
Yet it would still not be the largest a/c flying
Gotta love those Ukrainians

I think I'd prefer to ride in a 380, though.

Quoting JoKeR (Reply 35):
I have a feeling that Airbus will make a "major" announcement at the Dubai Airshow and that the A389 will become a reality soon....

Airbus needs to concentrate its engineering on the A350, and on preparing for an A320 successor if it becomes necessary.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:31 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 46):
Tony Tyler CEO CX: If Airbus stretched the plane to fit more passengers, or increased its take-off weight to extend its range we might buy. Either of those options would make it more economic and more competitive from our point of view

Cathay: No Plans For 787 Or A380 For Near Future (by EI321 Oct 30 2007 in Civil Aviation)  Wink
 
alangirvan
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RE: Emirates Would Take A380-900 Straight Away

Wed Oct 31, 2007 2:32 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 48):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 46):
Tony Tyler CEO CX: If Airbus stretched the plane to fit more passengers, or increased its take-off weight to extend its range we might buy. Either of those options would make it more economic and more competitive from our point of view

Cathay: No Plans For 787 Or A380 For Near Future (by EI321 Oct 30 2007 in Civil Aviation) Wink

The quote and the headline are takes from the same interview, which shows you can read what you want into a CEO's comments. Like Qantas and Emirates, Tyler is saying he is potentially interested in the 787-10 and potentially interested in the A389. He is telling the media to come back and see him in two years time.

In two years time, we might guess that the 787-10 and A389 will both have been launched by some other airlines. Some of those airlines will be converting existing orders for A388s and current 787s.

Tyler is taking CX to the policy which Australian and NZ carriers used to have of never ordering a new type until it has been in service 18 months. If Qantas had followed that policy, they would not order the basic A380 until mid 2009.

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