As part of an agreement reached between the US and Japan tens of thousands of Marines, their aircraft and equipment as well as 10,000 dependents will be moving from Okinawa to Guam where CO has a hub. The move is bringing in $15 Billion Dollars worth of Construction to Guam to prepare for their arrival, including new housing, schools, Morale and Welfare facilities, equipment and weapons storage and training areas. The huge construction boom is going to mean alot of new traffic from construction contractors to military personnel, to Civilian Workers (ie teachers etc) heading to Guam. The Marine units identified for relocation from Okinawa include the command element for III Marine Expeditionary Force; the headquarters for 3rd Marine Division, 3rd Marine Logistics Group and 1st Marine Aircraft Wing; and 12th Marines,

CO is studying how best to increase their service to/from Guam to meet the new opportunities. CO's Guam operation currently consists of mostly Japanese leisure traffic, the huge Guam build up which will increase the Island's population 25% will mean greater demand for flights between Guam and the US.

http://www.pacificmagazine.net/news/...benefit-from-guam-military-buildup

Besides the big Marine Corps move the other services are all going to be growing their presence on the Island, there are huge contracts that are going to be awarded to support their growth between now and 2020.

Army: constructing an ballistic missile defense station

Navy: a new pier capable of berthing a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, plus the home porting of four attack submarines and possibly AEGIS Destroyers.

Air Force: The Air Force is rapidly growing Andersen Air Force base and have recently established a permanent Wing to support operations, in 2009 Global Hawks will be based at Andersen. Four B-2s and several B-52s are forward deployed at Guam where a permanent bomber presence is maintained, the Air Force in the future will start rotating squadrons of F-22s through Guam.

Non-stop from IAH or LAX looks to finally be a given. From IAH it would require a 777, but LAX could do it with a 764 to keep within the pacific fleet rotation, though it would be weight restricted. A 762 could do it, but CO doesn't send 762s to LAX or GUM now.

Does this mean theres a chance of CO doing LAX-Guam non stop?

GUM-MNL route should prosper; it might even be worth adding GUM-CEB. The locals um... prefer a more leisurely life, so most of the workers will likely be Filipinos.

Quoting Humberside (Reply 2): Does this mean theres a chance of CO doing LAX-Guam non stop?

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1): Non-stop from IAH or LAX looks to finally be a given. From IAH it would require a 777, but LAX could do it with a 764 to keep within the pacific fleet rotation, though it would be weight restricted. A 762 could do it, but CO doesn't send 762s to LAX or GUM now

My guess is that LAX-GUM and/or IAH-GUM would be operated with 787s.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 3): GUM-MNL route should prosper; it might even be worth adding GUM-CEB. The locals um... prefer a more leisurely life, so most of the workers will likely be Filipinos

That's a really educated statement   

At least GUM-HNL #2 is likely

Quoting Dutchjet: My guess is that LAX-GUM and/or IAH-GUM would be operated with 787s.

Oh I would be all over that! It's time that we had more direct access from GUM to the mainland. a GUM-LAX route would be a very wonderful thing for many of those that skip HNL anyway.

[Edited 2007-10-29 12:36:04]

[Edited 2007-10-29 12:36:34]

Quoting GuamVICE (Reply 5): That's a really educated statement

Historically DOD and contractors have brought in Filipinos whenever they were working a major project. Politically correct phrasing might state that there aren't enough local workers to provide the required labor force; but it's a different work ethic and I'm not calling it wrong - just a fact of life.

Sorry to sidetrack the thread, but is there any possibility of NW also starting GUM-Mainland flights?

Also, is there a potential for a permanent traffic increase, or are we talking a few years time here?

Will this really be a huge harbinger of new routes. OKA currently does not have currently nonstop US service. Demand will increase but CO will have to grapple with the notion of

A. will it be worth committing a widebody that can be put on other routes to a different region (South America, larger asian cities)

B.take advantage of the move by increasing yields with no change in schedule.

C. Moderate increase in HNL GUM capacity and some regional flight increase.

Don't forget this move will be thorough 2014 and with fuel sky rocketing what may have been a nobrainer before deserves more scrutiny.

CO has always taken the approach of moderate but sustainable expansion. GUM will grow just not overnight.

I could see GUM-LAX happening very soon. Would be about time too, an easier way to reach GUM from the mainland.

i know CO flew GUM - OKA before. anyone know when they stopped the route (any why)? maybe CO will re-open the route again considoring how much gov't traffic they'll be able to get on that route alone.

~B6FA4ever

GUM-OKA was dur to a Milatary contract with CO to move personel In and Out of OKA...

But now there are more comercial flights and easier connections forn NRT and NGO

i'd like to see LAX-GUM-MNL..........  

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 8): Politically correct phrasing might state that there aren't enough local workers to provide the required labor force

  

This might what one would call : Right Place at the Right Time...or...Work Hard,Fly Right and Get Some Luck

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 3): The locals um... prefer a more leisurely life, so most of the workers will likely be Filipinos.

No way. The U.S. immigration laws apply.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 8): Historically DOD and contractors have brought in Filipinos whenever they were working a major project

I lived in the Philippines for six years and worked two major contracts with a Filipino workforce. They are outstanding employees. However, Guam is U.S. territory. It won't happen.

In 2000, the U.S. Navy (and Air Force IIRC) outsourced most of it's civil service work force, or that remainder that hadn't been "BRAC'ed" out of existence. I strongly suspect they regret that decision. The Guamanians that I worked with were as talented, competent, and hard working as any employees anywhere. I lived in Guam for five years and would go back tomorrow. Maybe another contract?

[Edited 2007-10-29 15:34:54]

Quoting Flyingcat (Reply 10): A. will it be worth committing a widebody that can be put on other routes to a different region (South America, larger asian cities)

No widebodies nessecary. CO has a hub with a 738 base in Guam. Guam-Japan is easily within the 738s range, and that is what the majority of CO's Guam-Japan routes operate with. I believe all except for a GUM-NRT frequency are with 738s.

Continental Airlines flies to nine cities in Japan - more than any U.S. airline.

[Edited 2007-10-29 15:38:48]

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 18): I believe all except for a GUM-NRT frequency are with 738s.

There are occasional substitutions. At NGO, we sometimes see 762s operating Air Mike flights in high season. It wouldn't be from HNL because that's usually 764.

Quoting Aaron747 (Reply 19): There are occasional substitutions. At NGO, we sometimes see 762s operating Air Mike flights in high season. It wouldn't be from HNL because that's usually 764.

That's odd. Where does the 762 rotate in from? There are none based out there, nor rotated in from the mainland.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 18): I believe all except for a GUM-NRT frequency are with 738s.

Actually, there are still two daily 764 round-trips on GUM-NRT.

Quoting STT757 (Thread starter): CO is studying how best to increase their service to/from Guam to meet the new opportunities. CO's Guam operation currently consists of mostly Japanese leisure traffic, the huge Guam build up which will increase the Island's population 25% will mean greater demand for flights between Guam and the US.

I suppose it could be a mixed blessing as well. Growth in U.S. mainland-Guam traffic could also lead to other U.S. carriers entering the market like HA from HNL or UA from SFO or LAX.

yes, we have subbed a HNL-NGO flight to a 762 before..........but not the NGO-GUM route. Usually we will swap out the NGO-HNL runs when we ferry a plane to MX in HKG.

Nothing will change. There may be a few more CO services from Honolulu.

What the OP is too polite to say is that the military build-up in Guam is all about the USA adopting a robust stature towards the People's Republic of China. It probably won't impact upon commercial aviation.

Quoting Humberside (Reply 2): Does this mean theres a chance of CO doing LAX-Guam non stop?

I think Guam-LAX has the an advantage over Guam-IAH for a couple of main reasons, first the big build up on Guam involves the Marine Corps and their suppliers/contractors. That traffic to Guam will originate at West Coast Marine Corps Depots such as Camp Pendelton, Twenty Nine Palms, Miramar MCAS and Yuma MCAS. Keep in mind it's not just Marines working at or around these bases, in today's military Civilian contractors have a greater role in maintaining Marine readiness. Especially with regards to complicated equipment such as aircraft, you see more and more civilians doing maintenance on active duty aircraft.

Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 6): At least GUM-HNL #2 is likely

This is another real possibility, as the Marine Corps (Kaneohe Bay MCAS), Navy (Pearl Harbor, Kaneohe Bay) , Air Force (Hickam) and Army (Schofield Barracks) all have significant presence in Hawaii including Pacific Command.

Quoting N353SK (Reply 9): Also, is there a potential for a permanent traffic increase, or are we talking a few years time here?

The increase in the Guam population is permanent, as will be the increased traffic.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 8): Historically DOD and contractors have brought in Filipinos whenever they were working a major project. Politically correct phrasing might state that there aren't enough local workers to provide the required labor force; but it's a different work ethic and I'm not calling it wrong - just a fact of life.

Pay Guamanians enough and they will do the job and to make the point...

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 3): The locals um... prefer a more leisurely life, so most of the workers will likely be Filipinos.

The _______ (Texans, Californians, Floridians, Chicagoans) um... prefer a more leisurely life, so most of the workers will likely be ________ (Mexicans, Salvadoreans, Polish).

Quoting ScottB (Reply 21): Growth in U.S. mainland-Guam traffic could also lead to other U.S. carriers entering the market like HA from HNL or UA from SFO or LAX.

I wonder if a UA to NRT would be something more likely in the near term with a direct connection in the long term.

I would love to see Continental open up direct access to GUM from the mainland. Currently, for travel to any of the other Northern Mariana Islands from the US requires a stop in HNL or NRT which from ORD would mean 3-4 legs to Saipan or Palau.

[Edited 2007-10-29 18:19:32]

[Edited 2007-10-29 18:19:57]

Quoting Flyingcat (Reply 10): Will this really be a huge harbinger of new routes. OKA currently does not have currently nonstop US service. Demand will increase but CO will have to grapple with the notion of

I with you on this. For transporting military personnel in and out, I believe the bulk of it will be done like always has been done, with AMC charters from points within Japan, and US-Mainland/Hawaii. I don't think CO will be launching much more out GUM than just the standard gradual increase and growth.

Quoting Koruman (Reply 23): What the OP is too polite to say is that the military build-up in Guam is all about the USA adopting a robust stature towards the People's Republic of China. It probably won't impact upon commercial aviation.

Whatever you say.

But in the real world, GUM will have a large increase in American civilians based there as well as American military personnel, and those people need to be connected to the lower 48.

If the business case makes sense, LAX-GUM will come. Now, will it be on CO or on UA or somebody else? Will it be from SFO instead? Who knows, but the permanent increase in traffic will lead to at least one mainland route in all likelihood, and likely it's LAX.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 4): My guess is that LAX-GUM and/or IAH-GUM would be operated with 787s.

Be still my heart. Don't rule out 777 service either. The current flight to HNL is always booked and what I've heard from people who work for the company, the vast majority don't stay in Hawaii. Additionally improvements continue to be made to the airport. Things CO has said they want before they start 777 service. Twy's have been improved. Twy 6R/24L has been extended and is getting an ILS installed right now, and I've heard there may be an extension in store for rwy 6L/24R as well.

Quoting Jgarrido (Reply 29): The current flight to HNL is always booked and what I've heard from people who work for the company, the vast majority don't stay in Hawaii.

True, and the O&D going to and from Guam isn't all just on CO, either. Because CO is pretty much the only game in town, they carry enormous amounts of traffic to and from GUM, even with large interline traffic from other airlines. A few months ago, while flying SAN-LAX to connect to an LAX-JFK flight, I saw a family of almost 10 people all loaded down with shopping bags and huge luggage that were on an interline ticket (I believe AA-issued 001 stock) headed SAN-LAX on AA/Eagle, LAX-HNL on AA, HNL-GUM on CO. I heard them talking to the gate agent while she was trying to issue them downline seats/boarding passes on the CO flight, and they said they do this trip at least 5 times per year.

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 17): However, Guam is U.S. territory. It won't happen.

I believe the Navy ship repair facility has a substantial Filipino payroll now.

Quoting 787KQ (Reply 25): The _______ (Texans, Californians, Floridians, Chicagoans) um... prefer a more leisurely life, so most of the workers will likely be ________ (Mexicans, Salvadoreans, Polish).

I guess I really stepped in it with my remark. Further explanation probably wouldn't help either. Apologies to all.

Quoting Jgarrido (Reply 29): 6R/24L has been extended and is getting an ILS installed right now, and I've heard there may be an extension in store for rwy 6L/24R as well.

6R/24L is being extended to 10,000 ft. and 6L/24R is possibly going up to 12,000 ft.

For those who don't know, aircraft departing 6L backtrack down 6R and cut over at the end. Right now, taxiway Kilo is under construction to keep traffic flowing to the left of 6L.

Quoting Humberside (Reply 2): Does this mean theres a chance of CO doing LAX-Guam non stop?

It may very well so. This will affect the LAX-HNL/HNL-GUM routes because a fair number of people from GUM reside in the SoCal area so having the nonstop would also be a boon to them. Even if the flight won't cater mostly to the leisure/personal traffic, it will still affect HNL in some way. I said in another post that at least one local senator wanted to implement cabotage laws on GUM so they could have Philippine Airlines carry traffic to and from the mainland on the way to MNL. Currently, it's just a one way SFO/LAX-GUM-MNL for refuel purposes. As said before, a 762 sounds viable for this mission.

Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 6): At least GUM-HNL #2 is likely

Even at this point, the flight should already be at least 2-3 extra frequencies each week. Maybe 2 or 3 years ago, flights 72 and 73 used to originate and terminate here. It was a twice a week thing and they oughta bring that back here. The only solution to relieve the traffic has been implementing flight 951/952 which routes GUM-MAJ-HNL or GUM-KWJ-HNL (and vice versa on each route). If they had kept the 752s here, I'm sure one of them could have provided supplemental service to HNL.

By the way, did anyone catch that line in the article where Kellner mentions their attempt to time the EWR and IAH flights to connect to GUM? EWR-HNL is no longer timed properly to make a connection to GUM. Only GUM-HNL allows a connection to HNL-EWR. The only way is to go EWR-IAH-HNL. Does this indicate a shift in time for CO 15?

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 17): I lived in the Philippines for six years and worked two major contracts with a Filipino workforce. They are outstanding employees. However, Guam is U.S. territory. It won't happen.

I have been doing business in Guam for the past 16 years. I can tell you that they will bring guest workers. They will need more workers to handle all of this construction boom. The DoD will get Homeland Security to issue temporary work permits.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 33): I have been doing business in Guam for the past 16 years. I can tell you that they will bring guest workers. They will need more workers to handle all of this construction boom. The DoD will get Homeland Security to issue temporary work permits.

  

There's just not enough locals to handle the sudden influx to Guam's population. Outsourcing of labor will occur, and our neighboring Philippine Islands are usually targeted first for this task. They will come. And some will even stay  

I wonder if they will increase frequencies GUM-MNL or upgrade to larger aircraft? Flights are always full and the service men will enjoy the opportunity to R&R in the Philippines!  

I assume they will increase frequencies to SPN also, again for the servicemen and or their families to get away.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 33): The DoD will get Homeland Security to issue temporary work permits.

When immigrants fill the need for a skill lacking in the local labor force, I believe they can get permanent visas if sponsored by an employer.

Some recent horror stories about people denied reentry, however, indicate that may have changed. I just came from a meeting where the Arabs complained that college students were told they couldn't return to the Middle East for for the coming holidays because their visas couldn't be renewed in time for school in January.

Qualified Locals Prefer to work in the Mainland (OR,WA,CA,NV,TX) or Hawaii because of low pay and unfair treatment in Guam... for example overtime , and free transportation, healthcare and housing is only given to the H2 and some "stateside" workers..so many just work to get experience and vote with their feet.. They need to match pay levels with places like Las Vegas and Hawaii.. or the skill drain will continue....most of the jobs barely pay $10 and hour, bit thats big money in the Philippines and they get all the freebies in their contract and no FICA (SS) deductions