kaitak
Topic Author
Posts: 9775
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:06 am

According to ATW this morning, Boeing is said to be coming around to EK's request to build a special version of the 747-8i, which would be based on the original planned length and have sufficient range to fly DXB-LAX (8400nm). EK's Maurice Flanagan also believes other airlines are interested in this proposal.

No comment from Boeing, but it seems to me that if they do this, they're effectively saying "there's not much happening on the sales front, so we need to go with EK's proposal if we want to sell anymore."?

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=10741
 
cloudyapple
Posts: 1261
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 7:01 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:12 am

So they are building a Code F aircraft to carry not much more than the current Code E B744s. Airport operators will be having a headache.
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
 
scouseflyer
Posts: 2192
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:02 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:59 am

If this is the case I wonder if LH will now be receiving a differant plane to the one that they ordered? Or will there be two differant versions of the 748I ?
 
krisyyz
Posts: 1299
Joined: Thu Nov 25, 2004 11:04 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:17 am

I am constantly amazed by EKs power with Boeing and Airbus. EK seems to get what it wants all the time from the two manufactures, but I guess Boeing needs B748 customers so bad right now that even a significant modification to the B748I is warranted to secure an order. This just may turn out to be just another EK pr game. But lets say that LH and EK are the only two B748 customers at the time when production of the B748 starts, will it be cost effective for Boeing to build a separate frames for each customer? Or would it be easy for Boeing to build LHs B748I from the same frame as the B748F?

KrisYYZ
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 10:40 am

I am really surprised that there are not more posts to this thread. It comes from a good source with an answer expected shortly. If true it beggers belief! They cannot be suggesting 3 versions of 40 copies each! That makes no economic sense.

If EK want range above all then why not turn the cargo version into an "i" version. Then you would have all the range you need (plus a load of beds upstairs).,without the engineering for a third type. If they shorten it for EK then what about (as already stated) the LH order?Would they (LH) still want it (vs 77w). And why does the BA reaction matter so much? If it does ,it suggests that no one will choose the bigger version vs the A380,which is what BA stated. I really do not understand it,but somethings happening. Perhaps this is the answer to all the rumours that no parts were being ordered for the "i". No wonder -if they don't have a finished spec!
 
columba
Posts: 5232
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 10:59 am

I really hope so and I believe two different versions of the 747I can be a very good sales argument. With the 787, a 747-7I and 747-8I you have a very good family concept especially if Boeing is launching the 787-10.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
scouseflyer
Posts: 2192
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:02 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:04 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 5):
I really hope so and I believe two different versions of the 747I can be a very good sales argument. With the 787, a 747-7I and 747-8I you have a very good family concept especially if Boeing is launching the 787-10.

The trouble would be the cost though as each version would require development and certification. They would need to get reasonable sales of all the versions to pay for them. I think that there will be only one I version of the 748 (and I fear that if there isn't some more sales soon) LH will convert their order to the 748F or the 777F and the I will be put on hold.
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13563
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:12 am

The 747-8i costed hardly any additional investment anyway. 2 x nothing can't be much of an issue   

Jokes asside this latest itteration of the 747 passenger no doubt needs the approval of LH.

I'm not sure if they were the one's who pressed for stretch.. A shorter 747 might fit in well /better between the A380 and A340-600 / A350-1000..



Anyway, it shows Boeing is not happy with where they are (internally).

If I was Boeing I would organize a nice week-end with GE, LH, EK, KLM, China, UA and NW fleet managers in a nice place in the Seattle area and have some open, non binding discussions and work shops..



[Edited 2007-11-06 03:23:25]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5515
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:20 am

Making two different lengths does not add that much cost; it is the least costly variation. Changes in wings, landing gear, MTOW, etc. are far more expensive. This may be why Boeing is willing to go this route. As to LH, I suspect they wanted the longer plane and will be getting the longer plane. It will be interesting to see whether Boeing offers the shorter length and then EK decides that they don't want it after all.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
eraugrad02
Posts: 699
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 6:12 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:24 am

Interesting. This could be the new 747-SPi or 747-7i. LOL. Would be cool to have.
Desmond MacRae in ILM
 
Flying-Tiger
Posts: 3991
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:26 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 8):
Making two different lengths does not add that much cost; it is the least costly variation. Changes in wings, landing gear, MTOW, etc. are far more expensive. This may be why Boeing is willing to go this route. As to LH, I suspect they wanted the longer plane and will be getting the longer plane. It will be interesting to see whether Boeing offers the shorter length and then EK decides that they don't want it after all.

Problem is that your resale values will go down the drain when you are all of a sudden having two different -800s. Kind of the -SP dilemma. Too few customers to make it attractive on the second-hand market. Plus conversions won´t be so interesting as converted -800is won´t have the same performance / capacity as an original, longer -800F. To sum it up: Having a shorter -800 Pax version won´t really increase the appeal to operators as the resale market will likely not be so pretty.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,...
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 5515
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:36 am

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 10):
Having a shorter -800 Pax version won´t really increase the appeal to operators as the resale market will likely not be so pretty.

I don't agree. The SP suffered on the second hand market because by the time they were on it the 744 was available, which was much more capable and made the SP unnecessary. Most carriers flying extremely long routes were able to afford new planes, which made the SP an orphan. The same may happen to the shorter 748, but if it proves more popular with the airlines than the longer version, it may not. That is not Boeing's problem anyway; if enough carriers want it to make it worth Boeing's while to build it, then whether or not there will be a secondary market for it is the airline's problem, not Boeing's. As to freighter conversions, they will still be more efficient and capable than 744 conversions, and they will be less capable (no nose door) than new-built 748F's, and there will still be operators happy to get them.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13563
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:36 am

I think marketing wise Boeing needs to "upgrade' the 747-8i, after it got slashed by BA, SQ, QF and SUH.

This means a new name and clearly visible improvements e.g. winglets, superior range, 787 cockpit, PR campaign, high profile customers or ..

call it a day & use the sparse resources in a more profitable way.

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:45 am

Quoting Parapente (Reply 4):
Why does the BA reaction matter so much? It suggests that no one will choose the bigger version vs the A380,which is what BA stated.

I think that the message from SQ and even more so BA has finally come across in Seattle.

If Boeing can't even sell the single 748i to its most loyal 747 customer British Airways, despite reportedly offering rock bottom prices and benefiting from the incredibly low dollar vs euro exchange rate NOW, they will probably never going to sell any at normal prices to others.

Singapore Airlines never lets go of an opportunity to mention they will never look at the 747 again because the A380 is more than one step beyond it and British Airways too said the 748 is not a plane they will ever consider again for their future needs, but well informed rumour has it that several other key customers Boeing saw as almost guaranteed 748 operators have told them they have come to the same conclusion as SQ and BA and are in now in serious discussions with Airbus over a number of A380s.

Quoting Parapente (Reply 4):
Something's happening. Perhaps this is the answer to all the rumours that no parts were being ordered for the "i". No wonder -if they don't have a finished spec!

The 748i is back to the drawing board AGAIN, being redone yet AGAIN to make the best of it....

Boeing has come to understand the 748i is NO competition for the A380 no matter how hard Boeing ever tries, so better position it in a separate niche segment well below it as EK is asking for. Of course, that requires throwing all the plans into the paper bin and it will have to come with a considerable delay.
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 12:03 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):
I think marketing wise Boeing needs to "upgrade' the 747-8i, after it got slashed by BA, SQ, QF and SUH. This means a new name and clearly visible improvements e.g. winglets, superior range, 787 cockpit, PR campaign, high profile customers or ..

Imagine Boeing does what EK asks and turns the 748i into a shortened longer range version of the 747-8i, then how long do you think before other customers or even EK itself will push Boeing for even more improvements to what is essentially still a 35-year old design? I mean, more range and less seats will put the 748i back in its natural habitat, but it doesn't make it a good plane for the 21st century does it? As you say a composite wing, new cockpit and also a FBW system iso all the cables and pulleys are needed for that...

In short, EK is currently putting a lot of effort into convincing Boeing to reposition the 748i right where Y3 will have to come one day, yet I have a feeling that as soon as that is done, it won't take long for them to start bashing the technological state of the design itself and try to force Boeing to commit to an improved design which will essentially be an all new Y3, at a time when they should be doing their Y1.

[Edited 2007-11-06 04:07:01]
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 12:24 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
British Airways, despite reportedly offering rock bottom prices

..Really? Got any proof or is this one of your typical unsubstantiated claims?

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
Singapore Airlines never lets go of an opportunity to mention they will never look at the 747 again

...and you yet once again never let go of an opportunity to "bash" the competition.. sarcastic 
"Up the Irons!"
 
User avatar
SeJoWa
Posts: 509
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 6:11 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 12:52 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
The 748i is back to the drawing board AGAIN, being redone yet AGAIN to make the best of it....

I'll simply take you seriously. Do you think new engines are 'in the wings' for the 747-8i? Or indeed a new set of lifting devices? Why, if the A380 is the be all and end all, can't Airbus simply dangle the prospect of an -800R version in front of interested parties?

Actually, I'm still rather sceptical concerning the revamped Jumbo (notwithstanding my joyous reception of its launch), a plane Boeing meant to supersede with the triple seven, as far as I recall. At least the freighter is doing well.
 
User avatar
tavong
Posts: 709
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2001 1:59 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8

Tue Nov 06, 2007 12:57 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 14):

Imagine Boeing does what EK asks and turns the 748i into a shortened longer range version of the 747-8i, then how long do you think before other customers or even EK itself will push Boeing for even more improvements to what is essentially still a 35-year old design?

But that what EK is doing to every airplane manufacturer, i mean they´re pushing Boeing for a Short 747-8i, they´re pushng Airbus for an A380-900, they´re pushed Boeing for 787-10/11, i mean what´s the matter if the 747 is "a 35 years old design" (that in my opinion is an invalid argument), EK has been pushing airlines do do what they want to do, even if they´re going to buy Dash-8 Q400, or ATRs , they will push hard to make airlines do what they want.

No matter what, Boeing still faces the risk that they change again the 747-8i desing and then EK say "no, thanks".

Gus
SKBO
Just put me on any modern airliner and i will be happy, give me more star alliance miles and i will be a lot happier.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 1:10 pm

I'm not going to bother replying to some of the more hyper...hyperbole...being presented, since it won't add any merit to the discussion.

What I will say is that it costs Boeing nothing to say "we're considering" doing something. If EK can "string" Boeing along, so Boeing can "string" EK along. I honestly do not believe EK is serious about buying the 747-8I and I honestly do not believe Boeing is serious about building a "Special Edition" version for them.

It's just a PR dance for both EK and the 747-8I.
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 1:13 pm

Question. Cannot the A380 be given more range quite easily? I thought (but I may be wrong here) that they were not even using the cental "box section" for fuel yet and those wings,they are huge! I would have thought that an aircraft that can go with a full load straight to crusing altitude must be able to load up a little more fuel? Guess I am wrong.

As far as Boeing are concerned.Re my previous thread.Its time to be bold - go BWB !
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 1:17 pm

Yes, Airbus has the ability to offer an A380-800R with a central fuel tank holding some 70,000 additional liters of fuel, offering roughly another 2000km of range.

I am guessing Airbus has not yet engineered this option, as it was part of the A380-800F program. But they will be able to offer it down the road if customer demand warrants it.
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 1:35 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 15):
Got any proof or is this one of your typical unsubstantiated claims?

We know pretty well what kind of a deal LH got on their 748i launch order: less than half of the list price and a free simulator as reported in the german financial press last year and the situation for the 748i hasn't really improved since last year, so why would Boeing have upped the price?

Besides, don't forget the dollar has declined significantly against the euro and the pound since then, so even if Boeing would offer only the normal percentage discounts and thus charge normally in dollars, the price of a 748i in pounds must look incredibly low when compared to the price of an A380.
 
parapente
Posts: 3061
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 1:37 pm

Thank you Stitch. I felt that this was the case. Then just what are they going on about (EK). You don't buy a new Kitchen if all you want changed is the sink. (odd parrallel I know - but you know what I mean)). Just demand more range from Airbus and they will give it (EK half owns them!!).
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 1:42 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 15):
you yet once again never let go of an opportunity to "bash" the competition..

I am merely recalling the words of Singapore Airlines' CEO on the 747-8i and the A380, which have since then been echoed by the chairmen of British Airways, Qantas and ILFC amongst others.

Are you blaming me for basing my apparently somewhat unwelcome opinion on the 748 on clear remarks from captains of the aviation industry???
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 1:43 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 15):
Got any proof or is this one of your typical unsubstantiated claims?

We know pretty well what kind of a deal LH got on their 748i launch order: less than half of the list price and a free simulator as reported in the german financial press last year and the situation for the 748i hasn't really improved since last year, so why would Boeing have upped the price?

...so what does it have to do with BA?

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):

Besides, don't forget the dollar has declined significantly against the euro and the pound since then, so even if Boeing would offer only the normal percentage discounts and thus charge normally in dollars, the price of a 748i in pounds must look incredibly low when compared to the price of an A380.

..."incredibly"? LH was offered the A380 at "abuse" prices (you can find the quote by Leahy somewhere, I'm not going to bother finding it)..yet LH didn't take it over the B748I...must say something...not to mention, it doesn't matter to Boeing if they sell 300 B748F's and 0 B748I's...the bottom line is ROI...and I'm not going in that direction.. duck 
"Up the Irons!"
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 1:51 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 24):
so what does it have to do with BA?


If a 748i customer is not entitled to a significant launch customer discount NOW, I don't know what launch customer discounts are for in the first place...
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:02 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):
We know pretty well what kind of a deal LH got on their 748i launch order: less than half of the list price and a free simulator as reported in the german financial press last year and the situation for the 748i hasn't really improved since last year, so why would Boeing have upped the price?

Multiple aircraft valuation firms all believe LH paid roughly 40-45% off list. I put more credence in their data because it is their job to know these things. Ancillaries like training and spares usually are not factored in, but a 747-8I simulator is likely a million or two, so that's not a huge profit-hit, especially since LH likely needs more then one.

All that being said, if Boeing is indeed discounting by 50-55%, it would match the prices said to have been paid by QF and BA, at least, for their A380s of $120-130 million per plane. With a rough "build price" of $100 million per frame, this would still make Airbus some money, but also helps explain why "break even" continues to drift farther and farther right of 500 frames and any serious (20%+) positive RoI looks to be impossible.
 
art
Posts: 3115
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:02 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
Boeing has come to understand the 748i is NO competition for the A380 no matter how hard Boeing ever tries

The A380F is NO competition for the 748F however hard Airbus ever tries. That's what matters.

Quoting SeJoWa (Reply 16):
Actually, I'm still rather sceptical concerning the revamped Jumbo... At least the freighter is doing well.

That's what matters.

If I design a truck that should attract a large number of sales at a good price for decades and I also come up with a version with seats and and windows so it can carry passengers and that version sells badly, do I have a problem? If I do, it's not a big one if I have not spent much on the pax spin off design.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:06 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 23):
Are you blaming me for basing my apparently somewhat unwelcome opinion on the 748 on clear remarks from captains of the aviation industry???

I reckon those captains of industry has let at least a couple of opportunities to bash the 747i go buy with nary a comment.


Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
Singapore Airlines never lets go of an opportunity to mention they will never look at the 747 again because the A380 is more than one step beyond it and British Airways too said the 748 is not a plane they will ever consider again for their future needs, but well informed rumour has it that several other key customers Boeing saw as almost guaranteed 748 operators have told them they have come to the same conclusion as SQ and BA and are in now in serious discussions with Airbus over a number of A380s.

What well informed rumour...? If it's well informed, it would probably be fact. Any quotes on these rumours...?
What the...?
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:09 pm

Quoting Art (Reply 27):
The A380F is NO competition for the 748F however hard Airbus ever tries. That's what matters.

It matters only if Boeing didn't offer the 747-8I for sale. It also matters if Airbus never offers an A380-800F that appeals to heavy cargo carriers.

We know the former is not true, as Boeing has offered it for sale and secured at least 24 orders. So at least that matters.

And we don't know whether or not the latter will be true until Airbus makes a final decision. So it may or may not matter.
 
scouseflyer
Posts: 2192
Joined: Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:02 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:11 pm

Quoting Art (Reply 27):

The A380F is NO competition for the 748F however hard Airbus ever tries. That's what matters.

They've basically given up on pushing the A380F so we'll end up with an even split in the VLA market - Boeing for cargo and Airbus for Pax
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:11 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 23):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 15):
you yet once again never let go of an opportunity to "bash" the competition..

I am merely recalling the words of Singapore Airlines' CEO on the 747-8i and the A380, which have since then been echoed by the chairmen of British Airways, Qantas and ILFC amongst others.

..no, you are simply incessantly taking the opportunity to "bash" the competition just like many did with the A380 when it was undergoing its problems....and then the cheerleaders were crying about the "bashing of the A380"...I see those very same people...go figure.. sarcastic 

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 23):
Are you blaming me for basing my apparently somewhat unwelcome opinion on the 748 on clear remarks from captains of the aviation industry???

...see above...

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 25):

If a 748i customer is not entitled to a significant launch customer discount NOW, I don't know what launch customer discounts are for in the first place...

....unlike the A380, the B748I doesn't need multiple launch customers 1 year after the first signing.. duck 

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
All that being said, if Boeing is indeed discounting by 50-55%, it would match the prices said to have been paid by QF and BA, at least, for their A380s of $120-130 million per plane. With a rough "build price" of $100 million per frame, this would still make Airbus some money, but also helps explain why "break even" continues to drift farther and farther right of 500 frames and any serious (20%+) positive RoI looks to be impossible.

...why bother Stitch, its too difficult of a concept for many A.netters to understand.. Smile
"Up the Irons!"
 
User avatar
keesje
Posts: 13563
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:15 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
it would match the prices said to have been paid by QF and BA, at least, for their A380s of $120-130 million per plane.

The A380 is supposed to have a list price of 319 million at the moment BA ordered.

I have not seen / heard anything about BA getting a more 60% discount. It is totally new / out of the blue for me. you are the first one mentioning it. Can you provide any kind of link?

It would totally illogical because nobody really saw the 747-8i as a hot contender for this BA contrac and no related deals were announced.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15055
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:31 pm

If it's true, I really expect the plane to be the size of the current 744 (maybe with a lengthened Upper Dec since this seems to be easily modified on this plane). Rather than build two new lengths, you get the stretch for the 748-i/F and the 744 length version for longer range? 748LR?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
ebj1248650
Posts: 1517
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 6:17 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:34 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 21):
We know pretty well what kind of a deal LH got on their 748i launch order: less than half of the list price and a free simulator as reported in the german financial press last year and the situation for the 748i hasn't really improved since last year, so why would Boeing have upped the price?

Lufthansa got a good deal. The idea, mentioned elsewhere in this thread, that Lufthansa will cancel their current 748i order and go with the smaller version strikes me as odd. Wouldn't you think that they'd have failed to order the planes they're currently buying if they don't meet the airline's needs? Now, having asked that, the possibility is still open that Lufthansa might order additional 748s in the future, and the order could be for the shorter longer ranged model, for the original model, or a mix of both.
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:40 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 31):
Unlike the A380, the B748I doesn't need multiple launch customers 1 year after the first signing..

I see, so the 748I doesn't need any more customers then?

Must be quite a business case the 748i has, that NOT selling any is better than selling them...

Normally that case arises when you are selling below production cost!

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 31):
why bother Stitch, its too difficult of a concept for many A.netters to understand

indeed... you are one of them I am afraid:

748i in search of respected launch customers ---> Boeing naturally offers significant discounts as incentive ---> dollar exchange rate already makes US purchases dirt cheep for European customers ---> 748i price thus must look like a steel to any European customer ---> despite all this, the 748i was not selected by BA and what is more, it was publicly snubbed by the airline ---> 748i has a HUGE problem!

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
Multiple aircraft valuation firms all believe LH paid roughly 40-45% off list. I put more credence in their data because it is their job to know these things.

Well, all I can say is they are wrong and if you know my background, you'll know I am not just saying so based on a feeling alone.... When it comes to valuation, I have been quite a reliable source as you may want to check on this site (see the EADS buy out of Bae Systems for reference). Besides, specialized German media reported the global deal was for less than 50% of list price, and they based these reports on remarks from a member of the LH board.

Anyway, -45% on the list price + a bunch of incentives or -50% on the total fee, this is not the point here.
The point is that it apparently isn't enough to win any customers and that Boeing will have gone even lower, thus warranting the use of the term 'rock bottom prices', a wording which has clearly irritated some members.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
A 747-8I simulator is likely a million or two, so that's not a huge profit-hit, especially since LH likely needs more then one.

Are you talking on a per plane basis? Because otherwise I am getting worried about your valuaton skills...

[Edited 2007-11-06 06:44:51]
 
User avatar
distanthorizon
Posts: 207
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:48 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:43 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 24):
Boeing if they sell 300 B748F's and 0 B748I's...the bottom line is ROI...

Are you an aviation fan or an aviation business man? Confused

Quoting Art (Reply 27):
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
Boeing has come to understand the 748i is NO competition for the A380 no matter how hard Boeing ever tries

The A380F is NO competition for the 748F however hard Airbus ever tries. That's what matters.

Well, that is what matters since it seems you can not deal with the reality... By the way, Airbus is not offering the A380F for sale.

Quoting Art (Reply 27):
Quoting SeJoWa (Reply 16):
Actually, I'm still rather sceptical concerning the revamped Jumbo... At least the freighter is doing well.

That's what matters.

Not more ROI! Not another business man, please...  Smile

Come on, guys! Can't we all be a little bit more honest?
Don't you fear the 748i might not really fill the skies, like the previous versions? Don't you fear the plane might be reaching it's life?

Well, I do.
But then, I am just an aviation fan...

DH
Regards
Nelson SE
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:48 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 32):
The A380 is supposed to have a list price of 319 million at the moment BA ordered.

The BA list price was actually $280 million when you divide the reported value of the contract at list by the number of firm frames. *shrug* But yes, the range of list prices for an A388 is between $297 and $316 million.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 32):
I have not seen / heard anything about BA getting a more 60% discount. It is totally new / out of the blue for me. you are the first one mentioning it. Can you provide any kind of link?

Well Scott Hamilton quoted that price in his original comments on the order, though he quickly redacted it. Boeing Boosters say he did so because he's biased in favor of Airbus and didn't want to throw cold water on the deal while Airbus Aficionados claim his numbers were totally bogus and he had to do so (though they take all his numbers that favor Airbus and not Boeing at full face-value).

I cannot reveal my sources as they provided me the data in confidence, but they did not place any restrictions on sharing it. The reason I haven't is because when someone reports a "low-ball" price, some folks get their noses in a twist because that is all they look at. They don't know - or don't care - what the cost of the frame is. They don't know - or don't care - that each frame could have tens of millions of ancillaries attached to it all with double-digit - even triple-digit - profit margins. And those parts of the deal are generally protected as "family secrets" because that is where the money is made so airlines and airframe manufacturers don't want those numbers "out in the open".

Since I have not been made privy to that data (and if I had, I would likely be embargoed on sharing it), I prefer not to throw the numbers out in every argument as it is just used as kindling by some to feed the flames. However, if those numbers can be used to provide context for another argument - in this case, that Boeing is offering 747-8Is at half-off list or more - then at times I feel it, if not prudent, at least relevant to do so.

So even if BA received a price upwards of half-off list for their A380-800s, it no more means Airbus lost a load of cash on the deal then Boeing did if LH received a price upwards of half-off list for their 747-8Is.

It's just one number of many and needs to be weighed in that context and not used as a weapon to bash an airline or an airplane.

And while I am on record saying the A380-800 is the better plane and will win every RFP against the 747-8I, I am also on record as saying that the A380-800 is not so amazingly and stupendously better then the 747-8I that Airbus need not discount while Boeing must discount heavily.

So if Boeing is indeed discounting by half, that would be roughly $140 million based on current lists. That number just happens to track with some of the data I am receiving on the A380-800 for some of the deals where the 747-8I was in the RFP. Remember that many A380 deals were RFP'd against the 747-400 or an undefined "747-X", so it is likely Airbus did not need to discount as deeply (and the list price was lower then, so $140 million deal now is not as "low" on a percentage basis as a $140 million deal in 2000 or 2001).

And any deal over $100 million should be "construction cost positive" based on the data you yourself have helped discover and provide. So these deals are providing real cash to the program costs and Airbus' cash balance sheet.

So, really, it's not something one need feel defensive about, just as one need not feel defensive about reports that Boeing is heavily discounting the 747-8I and the 747-8F to try and win RFPs. Because those prices are not indicative of the actual value of the check Airbus and Boeing cash at the end of the day.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 2:54 pm

Who knows, (really knows and isn't speculating about), how much it's costing Boeing to produce the 748, passenger and freighter versions? Also, who knows, (again, no speculation), how much Boeing will make when all of the planes ordered, are built and sold?

How much more is Boeing spending on the i above and beyond the freighter?

Sorry DH...I really am interested in ROI...business models are useless without it. Business is interesting because it's all about money and money is fascinating. Private companies aren't charities. Ultimately, all they care about is profit. As we've seen time and again, nobody is really concerned how they get it.
What the...?
 
User avatar
distanthorizon
Posts: 207
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:48 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 3:17 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 38):
Sorry DH...I really am interested in ROI...business models are useless without it. Business is interesting because it's all about money and money is fascinating. Private companies aren't charities. Ultimately, all they care about is profit.

Fair enough!

But I am much more interested in those marvellous pieces of human creation that enables us to do something our body were not design for: flying.

It is nice to discuss A, B or C aviation business and their (un)sucesses, but it is ultimately the passion for aviation that keeps me getting back to this forum. Wink

DH
Regards
Nelson SE
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8

Tue Nov 06, 2007 4:04 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 35):
Anyway, -45% on the list price + a bunch of incentives or -50% on the total fee, this is not the point here. The point is that it apparently isn't enough to win any customers and that Boeing will have gone even lower, thus warranting the use of the term 'rock bottom prices', a wording which has clearly irritated some members.

And maybe the point is Boeing doesn't care to sell their planes at a loss? Why discount a 747-8I to negative numbers when you can use that slot to build a 747-8F at positive numbers? I don't like to fly on the 747 so if they all go away, I won't be shedding a tear. But I would be shedding a tear if I was (still) a Boeing stockholder knowing that the only reason they're still around is Boeing is selling them for below cost.

Why did Airbus stop developing the A380-800F to more quickly complete the A380-800? Because maybe they wanted to use those resources to support a program making them money vs. one that wasn't? Or not making as much? After all, one could argue that Airbus needs to discount their A380F to "rock bottom" to overcome that product's "deficiencies" to the 747-8F, but saying so would clearly irritate some members.

I think what irritates members is the claims that Boeing has to sell planes at a deep discount because they suck compared to the competing Airbus product. I also think what irritates members is the claims that the only reason Airbus has been able to become the #1 commercial airplane manufacturer is because they have been selling their planes below production cost since the first A300 rolled off the assembly line in the 1970s.

People don't need to say such baloney to make their case. But some folks just wear their hearts on their sleeves, I guess, and anything that doesn't track with their own personal world view is deemed subversive and dangerous and must be discredited at all costs. Personally, I don't enjoy debating such people because logic doesn't work with them. You can't just say why their preferred product is better in certain areas, but you must speak in broad terms that validate their own beliefs in the heavens-given superiority of the product or you're not "of the body".

If twenty years from now no airline flies a 747, what does it matter to Boeing if they still fly hundreds of new 744Fs and 748Fs? Boeing still made money.

And if twenty years from now no operator flies an A380F, what does it matter to Airbus if they fly hundreds of new A388s? Airbus still applied money to their program RoI.

Yes, the 747-8 program would be even more successful if they sold hundreds of 747-8Is and the A380 program would enjoy an even better RoI if they sold hundreds of A388Fs, but hey, you take what you can (reasonably) get.

It is far too late at this stage to say Airbus never should have launched the A380 or Boeing should have responded with the 747-8 a decade ago. So arguing those points is, well, pointless. What matters now is to make the best of the situation.

For Boeing, selling 747-8Is at a loss isn't going to do that. And for Airbus, doing the same for the A380F isn't going to help either. If Boeing can't sell 747-8I's at a profit, then they shouldn't bother. Same with Airbus and the A380F.

And that Boeing keeps winning freighter RFPs and Airbus keeps winning passenger RFPs just might be a sign that both companies agree...
 
bond007
Posts: 4428
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2005 2:07 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 4:11 pm

Quoting DistantHorizon (Reply 39):
But I am much more interested in those marvellous pieces of human creation that enables us to do something our body were not design for: flying.

It is nice to discuss A, B or C aviation business and their (un)sucesses, but it is ultimately the passion for aviation that keeps me getting back to this forum

Unfortunately, you can't have one without the other  Wink

Jimbo
I'd rather be on the ground wishing I was in the air, than in the air wishing I was on the ground!
 
swallow
Posts: 182
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2007 12:23 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 4:31 pm

Well, well... back to EK.

Scott Hamilton has his doubts about EK ordering the 748.

Quote: 'We’re also hearing it is no better than 50-50 the airline will order the 747; it doesn’t have the range to go from Dubai to Los Angeles, while the A380 apparently can make it'

So TC may be pushing Boeing to give him what he wants and yet may not order it in the end.

Source: http://www.leeham.net/filelib/ScottsColumn110607.pdf
The grass is greener where you water it
 
ikramerica
Posts: 15055
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 4:38 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 10):
Problem is that your resale values will go down the drain when you are all of a sudden having two different -800s.

Resale on the 747 is about F conversions, and with the same MTOW, two lengths of the 748BCF won't be a huge deal in terms of resale. All the current 747Fs are shorter anyway, conversion or otherwise, with a lower MTOW and less ability. A 748BCF that is the same length as a 744BCF is still an upgrade to the 744...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
JoeCanuck
Posts: 4704
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2005 3:30 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8

Tue Nov 06, 2007 4:45 pm

Quoting DistantHorizon (Reply 39):

I dig speculation as much as the next guy but I do get weary of tin foil hat conspiracies. Having to sift through grandiose claims based on little more than wishful thinking, gets old.

I think being a fan of something or another is entertaining, (I have my preferences), but it nothing is perfect, right?

Sometimes facts, data and reality can be fun too. Would we recognise them if we read them here...?
What the...?
 
Scipio
Posts: 926
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2007 4:38 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 4:46 pm

Boeing completes 747-8I configuration

"As for the airplane's performance, the 747-8 Intercontinental will be stretched 5.6m (18.3ft) from the 747-400 to provide 467 seats in a three-class configuration and approximately 14,815-km (8,000-nmi) in range."

No mention of a shortened version.


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071106/aqtu097.html?.v=29


Scipio.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 26690
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 4:48 pm

Quoting Scipio (Reply 45):
Boeing completes 747-8I configuration...No mention of a shortened version.

Further reinforcement of my belief that neither Boeing nor EK are serious about a shortened 747-8I.
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:58 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 4:56 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 31):

....unlike the A380, the B748I doesn't need multiple launch customers 1 year after the first signing..

Ouch, that one has got to burn!!!  Wink

What part of the fact that Airbus has failed to reach the 200 sales point, 7 years after launch with the A380, do the Airbus cheerleaders NOT understand?  Yeah sure
 
User avatar
distanthorizon
Posts: 207
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:48 pm

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:03 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 44):
I think being a fan of something or another is entertaining, (I have my preferences), but it nothing is perfect, right?

Sometimes facts, data and reality can be fun too. Would we recognise them if we read them here...?

Would we recognise it if we saw it on Fox News?  Wink

I don't thing being fan is incompatible with being accurate.
But if you want to completely drop all wishful thinking and speculation, believe me - a-net would be such a boring place!...

Members do not come here to work (at least the vast majority of them!) - they came here to discuss something they care about, in an educated manner.
Most of the times, that is accomplished. Others, it is not. But as long as it is time well spent...

Regards
DH
Regards
Nelson SE
 
Aircellist
Posts: 1540
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:43 am

RE: Boeing To Agree To EK Request On Shorter 747-8i?

Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:09 pm

Stitch, thanks for those well-explained and (in my amateur view) balanced posts (37 and 40).

First-class posts from a "first-class member".
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos