PC12Fan
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How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 2:39 pm

Just curious to see if any bugs have popped up or if there have been any learning curve influences?
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scbriml
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 2:42 pm

I'm guessing it's going OK. I'm sure we would have heard if anything had gone wrong!  wink 
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EMBQA
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 2:47 pm

Quoting PC12Fan (Thread starter):
Just curious to see if any bugs have popped up or if there have been any learning curve influences?

It's WAY to early to even start looking at that. What have they had... 6 or 8 flights...??? Wait till they hit 100... then you can start trend setting.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
PC12Fan
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 2:57 pm

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 2):

True. Like Scbriml said, if there were any big problems, we would have heard about it. Again, I was just curious.
Just when I think you've said the stupidest thing ever, you keep talkin'!
 
khobar
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 4:21 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 1):
I'm guessing it's going OK. I'm sure we would have heard if anything had gone wrong! wink

After all the fanfare, I highly doubt we'd hear much of anything negative about the "new queen of the skies" flagship unless something really dramatic happened.
 
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scbriml
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 4:31 pm

Quoting Khobar (Reply 4):
I highly doubt we'd hear much of anything negative about the "new queen of the skies" flagship unless something really dramatic happened.

Are you suggesting Airbus and/or SIA would try and suppress bad news?  smile 

Any new type in service is watched very closely, this one probably more than any other since the 747. I'm sure any dispatch issues (even minor ones) would become public knowledge very quickly.
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khobar
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 4:46 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 5):
Are you suggesting Airbus and/or SIA would try and suppress bad news? smile

I'm suggesting that SIA and Airbus are going to wait an appropriate amount of time to determine dispatch reliability and that until that time both will have a rather narrow definition of what "bad news" really is.

[Edited 2007-11-09 08:47:55]
 
knoxibus
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 5:08 pm

So far no delays have been reported, we have the odd teething EIS issues, mainly due to cabin items. The rest of the aircraft actually works pretty fine and SIA is quite pleased AFAIK.

Of course this is only 2 weeks into service with one A/C, and obvioulsy as soon as there will be one delay superior to 15', everybdo will hear and be screaming about it.
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spartanmjf
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 5:10 pm

Isn't it a little soon to be doing dispatch reliability? In all fairness, the A380, though delayed, is STILL a new airplane and it will have some 'teething issues.'

More importantly, given that, IIRC, there is only one in service, the statistical meaning of any dispatch number would be virtually impossible to determine.

Now, when there is a fleet of some greater number [for the sake of argument, say 10], preferably with multiple carriers, I would think that one could then BEGIN to take a look at any dispatch issues that might be repetitive and that could need to be addressed either from an engineering/maintenance or an operational point of view.

I think it is great to have the plane flying and in revenue service - the gremlins will be worked through [particularly given the good reputation that SIA has].
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ikramerica
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 5:39 pm

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 2):
It's WAY to early to even start looking at that. What have they had... 6 or 8 flights...??? Wait till they hit 100... then you can start trend setting.

Actually, it's 20 or so, and so far, it's been on time every time I've checked.
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pnwtraveler
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 5:43 pm

Some bugs are to be expected even with the extended 'proving' period due to the delays. Of course anything like that will be jumped on and magnified out of context. The plane is on the ground for extended periods which is smart, to give time to work on little things before they become bigger issues. When the schedule is up to speed and turns are tight is when we will see more what dispatch is like.
 
PC12Fan
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 5:47 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 9):
Actually, it's 20 or so, and so far, it's been on time every time I've checked.

A nice start.  thumbsup 
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autothrust
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 5:55 pm

Airbus has a team in Singapore in case of some big problems. IIRC the aircraft is monitored the whole time from Tolouse. The plane should be pretty mature after the long time of testing.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 9):
Actually, it's 20 or so, and so far, it's been on time every time I've checked.

Wow, didn't know it had already so many, nice.
Flown on: DC-9, MD-80, Fokker 100, Bae 146 Avro, Boeing 737-300, 737-400, 747-200, 747-300,747-400, 787-9, Airbus A310, A319, A320, A321, A330-200,A330-300, A340-313, A380, Bombardier CSeries 100/300, CRJ700ER/CRJ900, Embraer 190.
 
halls120
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 6:02 pm

Quoting PC12Fan (Thread starter):
Just curious to see if any bugs have popped up or if there have been any learning curve influences?

Don't you think it is just a wee bit early to be asking this question?
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
andessmf
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 6:14 pm

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 13):
Don't you think it is just a wee bit early to be asking this question?

I would suggest that this question come up under (2) circumstances:

1. Length of service
2. Number of aircraft in service

The thread title should be 'How is...', since there is only one flying.
 
Joni
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 7:37 pm

If the dispatch reliability is, say, about 99% then in order to get a reliable estimate of it we'd need to have something in the order of 2000 departures (for 20 error events, which is already indicative). If the reliability is just 90% then 200 departures would give us a similar idea of the DR.
 
khobar
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 7:38 pm

Quoting Knoxibus (Reply 7):
So far no delays have been reported, we have the odd teething EIS issues, mainly due to cabin items. The rest of the aircraft actually works pretty fine and SIA is quite pleased AFAIK.

Not quite true - after the inaugural flight, the return trip from Sydney to Singapore was delayed. SIA and Airbus quickly doled out money under the table, and before long passengers were told the indefinite delay was because of the weather.  Wink

Also, SQ220 has arrived late - almost an hour late in some cases. And there has been a reported problem with the IFE causing a delay.

As I said, SIA and Airbus would evaluate these and other reports to determine if any of them were bad news. Obviously none is bad news in a real sense, even to the most pessimistic, so there was no need to make the info public.
 
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 7:49 pm

Quoting Khobar (Reply 16):
Also, SQ220 has arrived late - almost an hour late in some cases. And there has been a reported problem with the IFE causing a delay.

What's strange is that it arrives in SYD on time, leaves the gate at SYD on time, but arrives SIN late.

Like on the 9th, it left SYD gate 17 minutes late, no biggy, but arrived over 1 hour late. When 220 has been delayed, it's been like that.

Is it some sort of screw up with daylight savings time not being reflected in the system or something?
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PC12Fan
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 7:58 pm

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 13):
Don't you think it is just a wee bit early to be asking this question?

If I did, I wouldn't have asked.  talktothehand 

At any rate, I am asking as a fan of airliners, not to find faults or weaknesses.
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flyorski
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 8:55 pm

Does anyone know when SIA should be taking delivery of the second aircraft?
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khobar
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 8:55 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
Like on the 9th, it left SYD gate 17 minutes late, no biggy, but arrived over 1 hour late. When 220 has been delayed, it's been like that.

Is it some sort of screw up with daylight savings time not being reflected in the system or something?

Sometimes 220 is an hour late, sometimes it's half an hour, sometimes it's only twenty minutes. It has, in part, to do with scheduling and SYD doing runway checks after A380 departures.
 
aussie747
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 9:39 pm

Quoting Flyorski (Reply 19):
Does anyone know when SIA should be taking delivery of the second aircraft?

FEB 08' I am told
 
astuteman
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 9:50 pm

Quoting Khobar (Reply 4):
After all the fanfare, I highly doubt we'd hear much of anything negative about the "new queen of the skies" flagship unless something really dramatic happened.



Quoting Khobar (Reply 16):
Also, SQ220 has arrived late - almost an hour late in some cases. And there has been a reported problem with the IFE causing a delay.

 Smile

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
What's strange is that it arrives in SYD on time, leaves the gate at SYD on time, but arrives SIN late.

We've had some unusual weather patterns in south-east Aus this last few weeks. "Weather" that has any bearing, I don't know..  Smile

Regards
 
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scbriml
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 10:23 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
Like on the 9th, it left SYD gate 17 minutes late, no biggy, but arrived over 1 hour late.

Are they not departing at a particularly busy time from SYD? Basically, queuing to depart?
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halls120
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Fri Nov 09, 2007 11:52 pm

Quoting PC12Fan (Reply 18):
Quoting Halls120 (Reply 13):Don't you think it is just a wee bit early to be asking this question?
If I did, I wouldn't have asked. ÊÊ

At any rate, I am asking as a fan of airliners, not to find faults or weaknesses.

Even as a fan, it's way too early to draw any conclusions about the dispatch rate.
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
ncelhr
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:02 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 22):
We've had some unusual weather patterns in south-east Aus this last few weeks. "Weather" that has any bearing, I don't know.. Smile

Indeed, it's all about prevailing winds. When they blow against you they can delay you by as much as an hour on such a flight. Fly the other way and you might arrive ahead of landing time...
 
iwok
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:36 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 15):
If the dispatch reliability is, say, about 99% then in order to get a reliable estimate of it we'd need to have something in the order of 2000 departures (for 20 error events, which is already indicative). If the reliability is just 90% then 200 departures would give us a similar idea of the DR.

I used to work with a statistician who claimed that the "central limit theorem" says that if you measure 25 samples from a controlled batch, that your results will be very close to those achieved with larger samples. FWIW I did not believe him at all, but sure enough it did match up with what we saw. However since bugs are still being worked out, in other words process improvement is ongoing, the dispatch rate should increase.

iwok
 
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glideslope
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sat Nov 10, 2007 12:02 pm

Let's see some Fuel Burn numbers.
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2175301
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sat Nov 10, 2007 1:04 pm

Quoting Iwok (Reply 26):
I used to work with a statistician who claimed that the "central limit theorem" says that if you measure 25 samples from a controlled batch, that your results will be very close to those achieved with larger samples. FWIW I did not believe him at all, but sure enough it did match up with what we saw. However since bugs are still being worked out, in other words process improvement is ongoing, the dispatch rate should increase.

iwok

That is a generalization that is often not true.

The amount of samples required to give statistically valid results depends on what kind of distribution the items being inspected follow and how accurate you want the results to be. The gentleman above who posted about the difference between needed accuracy and the number of events counted (200 to 2000) was on the right track as far as the accuracy.

While most people are familiar with what is known as the "standard normal" distribution; there are others out there. I don't have a clue as to which distribution most correctly fits aircraft dispatch reliability. The most common mistake is people (and even statisticians) applying standard normal statistical analysis to a non standard normal situation. That is why the common statement about statistics lying exist.

Within a standard normal distribution you need at least 30 events to achieve the best results to a 95% confidence interval. You may use less events - but then the standard deviation window gets wider.
 
nrcnyc
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sat Nov 10, 2007 2:33 pm

It is far too early to talk about any sort of "rate". As mentioned above, there will be teething issues. At this points in time, the theoretical dispatch rate is a moving target. SIA will be able to determine a real rate once they have a fleet of the aircraft operating many flights a day. This helps make the statistics more sound, but at that point SIA will probably hit some sort of peak ability to handle the aircraft and the dispatch rate will cease to be the moving target it is now.
 
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:00 pm

Quoting Khobar (Reply 20):
It has, in part, to do with scheduling and SYD doing runway checks after A380 departures.

How would that affect a plane that has already taken off?!
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knoxibus
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sat Nov 10, 2007 7:10 pm

Quoting Khobar (Reply 16):
Not quite true

I'll take your first sentence as sacarsm... Big grin

Quoting Khobar (Reply 16):
Also, SQ220 has arrived late...IFE

A delay is considered as being a "delay" when the aircraft departs 15 minutes late from original schedule, due to a tech issue (be it the aircraft or the maintenance that screwed up or did not apply the appropriate trouble shooting procedure.)

Any other delay (pax or else) is not impacted on the aircraft. I receive the daily reports from SIA as well as the Post Flight Reports, and so far (well at least up until wednesday), no delays have been reported.

IFE was impacted by something else and was therefore not to blame also, on one particular occasions.

I wonder where you get your info...
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NWA742
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sat Nov 10, 2007 7:20 pm

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 27):
Let's see some Fuel Burn numbers.

I've been wondering about that too. It will be interesting to see what SIA comes up with. Anybody have any info on that at this point?




-NWA742
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overcast
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sat Nov 10, 2007 8:08 pm

I'm sure Knoxibus has some Fuel Burn figures, but I doubt he is able to share them.

Regarding the generally late arrival in SIN, I seem to remember that for the first couple of weeks there was going to be a Runway inspection after the A380's departure from SYD. But as the departure was a peak departure tim they were delaying the A380 so that they could minimise delays to the other operators.

The actual time of departure from the Gate seems fine, so the scenario fits the late arrival in SIN.

It should be interesting to see what happens next week, if it starts to arrive ontime in SIN then ti looks like a very nice entry into service.  crossfingers 
 
BigSky123
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sat Nov 10, 2007 10:28 pm

Quoting Flyorski (Reply 19):
Does anyone know when SIA should be taking delivery of the second aircraft?

I believe the second aircraft is scheduled to be delivered on January 2nd.
 
Stealthz
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sat Nov 10, 2007 10:35 pm

Quoting Khobar (Reply 16):
Not quite true - after the inaugural flight, the return trip from Sydney to Singapore was delayed. SIA and Airbus quickly doled out money under the table, and before long passengers were told the indefinite delay was because of the weather.

Have not heard about SIA/Airbus doling out money(and likely I would have) but take it from someone that was at SYD that afternoon and out in the weather.. it WAS weather. The ramp was shutdown for something like an hour at one of the busiest times of the week so took a little bit of time getting back to normal.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 23):
Are they not departing at a particularly busy time from SYD? Basically, queuing to depart?



Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 30):
Quoting Khobar (Reply 20):
It has, in part, to do with scheduling and SYD doing runway checks after A380 departures.

How would that affect a plane that has already taken off?!

For a time either SACL or CASA had dictated runway checks after departure (not positive they are still doing it but possibly). Not sure why, perhaps to check any FOD issues caused by the outboard engines, SYD runways are only 45m wide.

To answer Scbriml & BuyantUkhaa, yes the departure is at a very busy time and it affects SQ220 because they try to slot it into a gap in the departure sequence where there is a natural break that allows the runway inspection which is done very quickly.

Cheers
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ikramerica
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:38 am

Quoting Knoxibus (Reply 31):
A delay is considered as being a "delay" when the aircraft departs 15 minutes late from original schedule, due to a tech issue (be it the aircraft or the maintenance that screwed up or did not apply the appropriate trouble shooting procedure.)Any other delay (pax or else) is not impacted on the aircraft. I receive the daily reports from SIA as well as the Post Flight Reports, and so far (well at least up until wednesday), no delays have been reported.

Okay...

In the non-SIA world, when a plane arrives at it's DESTINATION 15 minutes or more after it was scheduled, it is LATE, and SQ220 is arriving SIN late often. It doesn't matter for what reason it is late, it is late. It is a delay.

But it's dispatching fine, and this thread is about dispatch reliability.
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jetjeanes
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:07 am

Im sure the team probably found a few bugs, that will help out on future frames comeing out. Every new Line has quirks
regardless of the manufactuer, The dc-10 was plagued. Im just curious is Airbus has a couple of maintaince guys on board
looking for things in flight and any repairs at Syd.
i can see for 80 miles
 
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SOBHI51
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:15 am

Quoting Khobar (Reply 16):
Not quite true - after the inaugural flight, the return trip from Sydney to Singapore was delayed. SIA and Airbus quickly doled out money under the table, .

Can you prove that? If not then please  
 

[Edited 2007-11-10 20:21:00]
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swallow
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sun Nov 11, 2007 6:05 am

Quoting JetJeanes (Reply 37):
Im just curious is Airbus has a couple of maintaince guys on board
looking for things in flight and any repairs at Syd

No, there are no engineers on board the plane but it is monitored 24/7 from the Airbus Technical AOG (aircraft-on-ground) Center (AIRTAC) in Toulouse. Engineers are also on standby 24/7 with at least 30 Airbus staff in Singapore at a dedicated A380 control center. There are spares available in SIN and SYD in case it goes tech and suppliers are on standby if any other parts need to be sourced at short notice.

For now there is an Airbus pilot on the flight deck, but this is considered normal for a new type entering commercial service.


http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...nd-airbus-a380s-service-entry.html
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Ants
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sun Nov 11, 2007 6:33 am

Quoting Knoxibus (Reply 31):
A delay is considered as being a "delay" when the aircraft departs 15 minutes late from original schedule, due to a tech issue (be it the aircraft or the maintenance that screwed up or did not apply the appropriate trouble shooting procedure.)

Any other delay (pax or else) is not impacted on the aircraft. I receive the daily reports from SIA as well as the Post Flight Reports, and so far (well at least up until wednesday), no delays have been reported.

IFE was impacted by something else and was therefore not to blame also, on one particular occasions.

As usual Knoxibus, thanks for providing us the interesting info you have access to.  thumbsup 

One thing that is great about Airliners.net is the fact that we have members like Knoxibus who have direct knowledge of how a programme is going, rather than always having to rely on media reports  Smile
 
knoxibus
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:03 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 36):
In the non-SIA world, when a plane arrives at it's DESTINATION 15 minutes or more after it was scheduled, it is LATE,

Of course, of course, we both agree on that. As you mentioned and since I did not make myself very clear, I was talking about technical delay impacting DR obviously, my bad.

It's purely professional vocabulary intrusion on my side, that's what a delay (or better called Operational Interruption) is for us.

Quoting Swallow (Reply 39):
No, there are no engineers on board the plane

Sometimes there is, SIA just has to ask, and they did that a couple of times already, only on the cabin items side.

Can't remember who asked, but FYI, MSN005 should be arriving at TLS (if not done already) in a couple of days. I'll
check on Monday.

Transfer of Title should be on 31st December and SIA should fly it home on 2nd January IIRC.
No matter what anybody tells you, words and ideas can change the world.
 
col
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:23 pm

What route will no 5 cover?
 
Asiaflyer
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:56 pm

Quoting Col (Reply 42):
What route will no 5 cover?

Hi Col,

MSN 005 will do SYD-SIN-LHR to begin with.
 
khobar
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:57 pm

Quoting Knoxibus (Reply 31):
A delay is considered as being a "delay" when the aircraft departs 15 minutes late from original schedule, due to a tech issue (be it the aircraft or the maintenance that screwed up or did not apply the appropriate trouble shooting procedure.)

Any other delay (pax or else) is not impacted on the aircraft. I receive the daily reports from SIA as well as the Post Flight Reports, and so far (well at least up until wednesday), no delays have been reported.

IFE was impacted by something else and was therefore not to blame also, on one particular occasions.

I wonder where you get your info...

As I said previously, Airbus and SIA have a specific definition for various things, and with their current definition for "bad news" or "delay", almost nothing counts (and, for the time being, I agree). So you arrive at the result you reported.

As for the "Not quite true" statement, I wasn't being sarcastic. It was meant as "tongue in cheek" since even the most pessimistic would have a hard time elevating any current issue above "minor".

From an "on-time" performance standpoint, anything over 15 minutes is fair game. Which begs the question: how is the A380 performing against other aircraft flying the same route? Is the A380 arriving on time more of the time or less of the time?
 
col
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RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:07 pm

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 43):
Hi Col,

MSN 005 will do SYD-SIN-LHR to begin with.

Asiaflyer,

Thanks for info, this means that one of the 744 routings to LHR will partially get replaced by 380?

Term 3 almost up and running, had the trains running around the system the other day when I was there. I think some flights are going in on the 12th for testing. There does not seem to be many parking gates at T3, I would have thought they may have extended out further with some pier system like T2.

Cheers

Col
 
Asiaflyer
Posts: 892
Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:50 am

RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Mon Nov 12, 2007 5:16 am

Quoting Col (Reply 44):
There does not seem to be many parking gates at T3, I would have thought they may have extended out further with some pier system like T2.

T3 will have 28 aerobridge gates, which is an increase of 43% in terms of total numbers of gates at Changi.
That should be enough for some years ahead.
The distance between T3 and the runway is abit narrower than between T2 and the runway on the other side, so there isnt room for making piers of the same size as at T2.
If they want to build some piers at T3 , they will have to remodel the taxiway, but still not get piers of the size as T2.
 
CoolGuy
Posts: 366
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 8:13 am

RE: How Are The A380's Dispatch Ratings Doing?

Mon Nov 12, 2007 3:28 pm

The A380 certainly had a long test period. Were there any technical issues that came up then that were resolved (excluding production delays)?

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