KL808
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Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 2:56 pm

Per Flight blogger, Boeing will delay the roll out of the B748F by three months.

The delay of the roll out will not affect delivery to Cargolux.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...g-to-delay-roll-out-of-747-8f.html

Drew

[Edited 2007-11-09 07:00:03]
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PhilSquares
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 3:04 pm

Quoting KL808 (Thread starter):
Per Flight blogger, Boeing will delay the roll out of the B748F by three months.

To complete the assembly of all remaining 747-400Fs on order before switching to the new model.
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kc135topboom
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 3:10 pm

Quoting PhilSquares (Reply 1):
To complete the assembly of all remaining 747-400Fs on order before switching to the new model.

Would that be the 5 remaining UPS B-747-400Fs?
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 3:49 pm

Well, considering the flight test schedule for the 787 was pushed back, and the lack of pilots, who then have to be dedicated to the 777F as well, I think this was expected. I assume the 748F flight test program is now also compressed? Luckily, Boeing is pretty familiar with the 747 by now  Wink , and should have familiarity with the GEnx engine by then too.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 2):
Would that be the 5 remaining UPS B-747-400Fs?

They have 25 744/744ERs to deliver, according to their website. When I saw that, I wondered how they were going to deliver them all and still build the 748F on time. I guess this answers the question.
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swallow
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 4:00 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):
I assume the 748F flight test program is now also compressed?

'With entry into service unchanged, the flight test program will be shortened by three months' according to the article.

So both the 787 and 748 flight test programs have been compressed. The 777F may also be affected in due course.
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roseflyer
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 4:11 pm

Boeing is doing a lot right now which is really pulling its engineering resources thin. The 787 and 747-8 programs have been drawing engineers from other parts of the company. The biggest program losing engineers is the 737 program. That program is stable, but production numbers are increasing there too. Boeing is expanding everywhere. The work force is certainly strained. Delays unfortunately are a result of this.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
- In addition to the closure of the -400F line, engineering resources have been diverted away from the 747-8 program to assist with both the 787 and 777F programs. This diversion has been confirmed by sources inside the 747 program and partially accounts for the change in the schedule as well.

That's probably a bit of an understatement. The 747-8 is being designed in the shadow of the 787. However the program just reached a huge milestone in it announcing firm configuration is set.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
swallow
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 4:19 pm

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 5):
Boeing is doing a lot right now which is really pulling its engineering resources thin

And the test pilot pool is going to be really stretched flying the 788, 777F, 748F, 789 and 748i in the space of 3-4 years. And when they are done, the 7810 may be waiting. Vacation anyone??

As has been mentioned, this 748F delay may also have something to do with the delay in getting GEnx flight test data from the 787 program.

All in all, a hectic time at PAE.
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 4:23 pm

Looks like Vought might be the weak-link in both the 787 and 747-8 programs:

Quote:
The new leader of Boeing's troubled 787 Dreamliner program has moved quickly to shuffle top management and reorganize responsibilities.

Among other changes, new 787 Vice President Pat Shanahan appointed an executive specifically to oversee one of the major supplier partners, Vought, which builds the airplane's two rearmost fuselage sections in Charleston, S.C.

The appointment is a clear indication that Vought is a weak link in the Dreamliner supply chain.

Strode will give "special attention to 787 recovery and production ramp-up," the internal announcement said, though his oversight also extends to Vought's development work on the new jumbo-jet derivative, the 747-8.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...aerospace/2004003350_boeing09.html
 
FAEDC3
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 6:32 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):
They have 25 744/744ERs to deliver, according to their website.

I thought that the production for the 744 had ended.... only 744F were offered and in actual production, can anybody correct me on this?
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 8:13 pm

Quoting KL808 (Thread starter):
Per Flight blogger, Boeing will delay the roll out of the B748F by three months.

Thanks for the info.

Quoting PhilSquares (Reply 1):

To complete the assembly of all remaining 747-400Fs on order before switching to the new model.



Quoting Swallow (Reply 4):

So both the 787 and 748 flight test programs have been compressed. The 777F may also be affected in due course.

Probably.

Quoting Swallow (Reply 6):
Vacation anyone??

Boeing doesn't believe in vacation.  Wink

The problem is risk. Flight test is to find problems. You find the problem and then fix the problem. Boeing just lost 3 months of 'fixing time.' I'm not saying it cannot be done, but it takes two to six weeks to turn parts. I hope they have more than the normal spares budget.

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ER757
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 8:15 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
Looks like Vought might be the weak-link in both the 787 and 747-8 programs:

It sure looks that way - hopefully having a Boeing watchdog nipping at their heels will get them up to speed. If not, that could spell further issues for both programs.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 8:30 pm

The interesting info for me was that contary to what had been said during the last Boeing webcon, the 787 delays DID have a negative impact on other programs, as personnel has been drained from the 747-8 and the 777F to help out on the Dreamliner. Even EADS's proverbial "nothing has been decided yet" was more straightforward.
And now there's another unrealistic schedule, this time for compressed flight testing and timely delivery of the 747-8F despite a three-month delay to production start.
 
roseflyer
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 8:32 pm

Quoting Swallow (Reply 6):
And the test pilot pool is going to be really stretched flying the 788, 777F, 748F, 789 and 748i in the space of 3-4 years. And when they are done, the 7810 may be waiting. Vacation anyone??

Yes there definitely is a lot of flight testing to be going on. The department has been increased in size in anticipation of the 787. Fortunately the 747-8 will be flying after the 787 is certified.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
slz396
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 9:09 pm

Well well, wasn't it only recently I got flamed for suggesting that after the delays in the 787 program, the 748 would be next????  

https://www.airliners.net/discussions...hid=3648711&s=748+delays#ID3648711

It was pretty obvious for weeks: if no parts have been shipped to Seattle yet, there can't be much assembling going on, can there?

Interesting to note how Boeing maintains they can compress the 748 test program, the same way as they first maintained they could do so on the 787 too after delays were announced.... Guess it will take some time for Boeing to come to the conclusion that a 3 month slip will have an impact on ALL mile stones, including EIS.

Oh, BTW, the original rumour about ALL out Boeing delays was 3 fold: 787.... 748... 777F...

[Edited 2007-11-09 13:26:58]
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 9:24 pm

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 9):
The problem is risk. Flight test is to find problems. You find the problem and then fix the problem. Boeing just lost 3 months of 'fixing time.' I'm not saying it cannot be done, but it takes two to six weeks to turn parts. I hope they have more than the normal spares budget.

On the plus side, the 77F and 747-8 are based on mature designs, so it is unlikely anything truly unexpected is going to crop up. They will be using the tests primarily to verify what the computer and wind-tunnel models have predicted. The 77F model should be pretty much 100% accurate so that test should be pro-forma.

The GEnx-2B67 can be tested on a 747-400 if needed, so that is no biggie. I expect the only real test data that will need to be validated is the new wing design.
 
slz396
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 9:25 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
The Seattle Times: The new leader of Boeing's troubled 787 Dreamliner program has moved quickly to shuffle top management and reorganize responsibilities.

Only 3 weeks ago, I was flamed for daring to use the word 'entroubled' in combination with Boeing and their 787, but now it seems the mainstream press is doing it too...

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 11):
Now there's another unrealistic schedule, this time for compressed flight testing and timely delivery of the 747-8F despite a three-month delay to production start.

Indeed, it is interesting to note how Boeing is following a same pattern of:

-) denying delays longer than possible, despite massive circumstantial evidence and insider knowledge of the contrary.

-) announcing a slip of the first milestone only, while maintaining the EIS will be unaffected, thus implying an unrealisticly compressed test phase. (which is where the 748 is now)

-) timidly admit EIS will slip too because the test phase can't be shortened, but stressing there will be no financial or other consequences from that.

-) Being proven wrong by later facts...
 
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ER757
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 9:33 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
Well well, wasn't it only recently I got flamed for suggesting that after the delays in the 787 program, the 748 would be next????

So, are you happier because you've been vindicated, or because it gives you yet another opportunity to bash Boeing?
You never miss an opportunity to turn a thread into an A vs B thing. A lot of us are pretty tired of it. Same goes to those who constantly take shots at Airbus - both sides: give it a rest, will ya?
 
sphealey
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 9:34 pm

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Boeing state from the beginning of the 748i project that the exact final dates would depend on the completion dates for the last of the previous models' production run?

sPh
 
slz396
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 9:43 pm

Quoting ER757 (Reply 16):
You never miss an opportunity to turn a thread into an A vs B thing

Just where did I mention Airbus or even refer to it in this thread?

All I did was highlight that this topic deals with issues which were already brought up by others (including me) some time ago, and which where largely dismissed as pure bashing due to lack of evidence then.

Ironic how you are accusing me of Boeing bashing right at a time when some pretty solid evidence of what we have been saying for long pops-up!

Very weird definition of 'bashing' you have...
 
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ER757
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 9:51 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 18):
Ironic how you are accusing me of Boeing bashing right at a time when some pretty solid evidence of what we have been saying for long pops-up!

Very weird definition of 'bashing' you have...

OK - I guess I should have said you needed to be able to say " I told you so." You have - congrats - I hope it made you feel better - have a nice day
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 9:58 pm

Honestly, what does it matter?

It's not going to hurt existing sales, to say nothing of future ones.

This is why Airbus and Boeing don't directly duplicate each other's families as much as possible, so when they do trip-up, the other guy can't jump in and take advantage of it.

It's just air over the wing folks. Air over the wing. Let is pass on by and disappear into the slipstream.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 10:15 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
On the plus side, the 77F and 747-8 are based on mature designs, so it is unlikely anything truly unexpected is going to crop up.

While I would expect 777F flight testing to pass uneventful, the 747-8 has new, heavier engines, new pylons, and last but not least a new wing. It's conceivable the 748 may experience flutter problems just like the Dreamlifter and the KC-767 did. On the other hand the 748 at one point reportedly was about 6 month behind schedule while according to Flightblogger the delay is now down to three that might be recovered in due course.  Smile
 
GeorgeJetson
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 10:38 pm

About the Boeing 777F: Why does it take such a long time to design and certify a freight version of this aircraft, or any aircraft? Now how hard can it possibly be to add a cargo door and reinforce the floor? I really don’t understand why this is so time-consuming and challenging for Boeing. And the same goes for the Airbus A330F.
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kc135topboom
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 10:43 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):
They have 25 744/744ERs to deliver, according to their website. When I saw that, I wondered how they were going to deliver them all and still build the 748F on time.



Quoting FAEDC3 (Reply 8):
I thought that the production for the 744 had ended.... only 744F were offered and in actual production, can anybody correct me on this?

To get this straight, UPS ordered 8 new build B-747-400F in 2005. These were the last B-747-400s ordered. Boeing has delivered 2-3 of these airplanes, 5 remain in production. The remaining 17 B-747-400/ERs are going to be converted from passenger versions through the B-747-400BCF/ERBCF program.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 15):
Indeed, it is interesting to note how Boeing is following a same pattern of:

-) denying delays longer than possible, despite massive circumstantial evidence and insider knowledge of the contrary.

-) announcing a slip of the first milestone only, while maintaining the EIS will be unaffected, thus implying an unrealisticly compressed test phase. (which is where the 748 is now)

-) timidly admit EIS will slip too because the test phase can't be shortened, but stressing there will be no financial or other consequences from that.

-) Being proven wrong by later facts...

One thing Boeing WON'T do is follow the road Airbus did with the A-380 2 year delay feascal.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 18):
Just where did I mention Airbus or even refer to it in this thread?

Your implication came through loud and clear.............

Quoting Sphealey (Reply 17):
Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Boeing state from the beginning of the 748i project that the exact final dates would depend on the completion dates for the last of the previous models' production run?

Yes, they did, and the B-747-400F is still in production.
 
pnwtraveler
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 11:01 pm

There is only one 747 line in the factory so this is totally understandable and reasonable. It has nothing to do with any other line or aircraft. Of course many will read all sorts of things into it that and find all sorts of conspiracy theories to weave.
 
chiad
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 11:09 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
Well well, wasn't it only recently I got flamed for suggesting that after the delays in the 787 program, the 748 would be next????

https://www.airliners.net/discussions...48711

I read it Slz396. And I agree with you.
I think we'll see more delays here, both with the B787 and B748, but ... let's keep that between you and me.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 11:35 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 23):
To get this straight, UPS ordered 8 new build B-747-400F in 2005. These were the last B-747-400s ordered. Boeing has delivered 2-3 of these airplanes, 5 remain in production. The remaining 17 B-747-400/ERs are going to be converted from passenger versions through the B-747-400BCF/ERBCF program.

Sorry, but this is just not true.

Cargolux is owed 1 new build
CX is owed 6 new build
GECAS is owed 2 new build
Guggenheim is owed 2 new build
Jade is owed 1 new build
LoadAir is owed 2 new build
NH Cargo is owed 5 new build
UPS is owed 6 new build

25 total new build, not special freighters (BCF).
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
trex8
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Fri Nov 09, 2007 11:46 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 26):
25 total new build, not special freighters (BCF).

AFAIK no BCFs are planned to be made directly by Boeing, B supplies the kits and certifies them.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Sat Nov 10, 2007 6:16 am

Quoting KL808 (Thread starter):
Per Flight blogger, Boeing will delay the roll out of the B748F by three months.

Why is everyone so excited about a delay in *rollout*. As Boeing learned very clearly on the 787, pushing assembly to hit the rollout date just bites you in the butt. Absent other evidence, pushing the rollout may actually improve the overall schedule; it certainly would have on the 787.

Tom.
 
slz396
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:33 am

Just a question:

When was the last 747-400 ordered?

Indeed, LOOOOONG ago, so who does it all take longer for Boeing to work through this back log that first thought? (the official reason why the 748 assembly and subsequent roll out is delayed) Are they now all of a sudden even having manufacturing problems with an almost 20 year old design????

Indeed, it is just a poor excuse.

The real reason is the detailed drawings of the plane are not even finished, whereas the first parts out to have been shipped already for the final assembly.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:09 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
When was the last 747-400 ordered?

The last 747-400 order was four for China Airlines in November 2002.

The last 747-400F order was two for Cargolux and two for All Nippon Cargo in February and May 2006, respectively.

The last 747-400ERF order was six for Cathay Pacific and two for LoadAir Cargo in June and July 2006, respectively.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
Indeed, LOOOOONG ago, so who does it all take longer for Boeing to work through this back log that first thought?

Are you just  stirthepot  for the sake of  stirthepot  or did you not fully read the blog entry?

One year doesn't strike me as "LOOOOONG ago".

Boeing is going to deliver the remaining 25 (as of October 2007) 747-400 freighters ahead of schedule. At current 747 production rates, those planes would be delivered through 2009 to keep the line at capacity until the first 747-8F was started, but now Boeing is going to complete the remaining 747-400 models early and deliver them all by the end of 2008.

Since I doubt Boeing wants to idle the line to lower their 2008 revenues (which is what idling it does), I am guessing it is being done to ensure that the change-over to the 747-8 program is not impacted by any delays in completing the last 747-400 models.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:48 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 29):
The real reason is the detailed drawings of the plane are not even finished, whereas the first parts out to have been shipped already for the final assembly.

The detailed drawings of the plane aren't *supposed* to be finished. They just hit firm configuration this week, which is a prerequisite for starting detailed drawings.

Tom.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:42 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):

The GEnx-2B67 can be tested on a 747-400 if needed, so that is no biggie. I expect the only real test data that will need to be validated is the new wing design.

I agree the 748 is a relatively low risk flight test program. The only major components changed are the engines and the movable wing surfaces. As you note, the wing shape change is but air over a wing... although as a specialist in fluids its not fun having it phrased that way!  Wink

Last I looked, they're keeping the gear, tires, and brakes of the 744. (I'm hearing the wheels might be changed to a lighter design, but that's minor.) So those tests should go easy.

Like I said before, it can be done. But I'm going to be in test soon. The 3 months that was taken away was probably added in to be conservative. But I've seen schedules compressed with no room for error. That's when minor issues create big delays.

Lightsaber
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tdscanuck
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RE: Boeing Delays B747-8F Roll-Out

Sun Nov 11, 2007 5:09 pm

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 32):
(I'm hearing the wheels might be changed to a lighter design, but that's minor.)

I'm pretty sure they're switching to radials (from bias)...that might account for the weight change.

Tom.

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