CO Possible 777-300er Purchase

ewr767 · Sat Nov 10, 2007 3:07 am

This is a weekly open letter sent to all flight attendants from our base manager. I hope this is true. Given the possible delays with the 787, i think we would need these a/c to fill the gap:

The CEO Exchange was quite informative and encouraging as our future looks bright despite the rise in oil prices which is at about $114 per barrel of Jet Fuel. It was noted that we had a great 3rd quarter . By next week we should have more firm details on our new slots at London Heathrow Airport. This will attract more business travelers to us increasing our profitability. Larry and Jeff reviewed how important it is for us to continue our efforts to lobby the government for more airspace and to alleviate some of the congestion in our area. Our plan for the future is still in place with the order for our new 787 aircraft and 737 aircraft to arrive in 2009. There may be a potential need to order some new 777-300er aircraft to fill the demand for some possible new destinations. All in all we are running a solid operation

1337Delta764 · Sat Nov 10, 2007 3:13 am

I think that DL may also order the 777-300ER as well. Some routes, such as ATL-NRT and ATL-TLV can potentially fill a 777-300ER. I don't know about flying them to LHR, as Delta has reserved their 777s to ultra-long international routes. I believe that Delta's service to LHR will start with a 767-300ER, but if demand is there, then the route may be upgraded to a 767-400ER in the future.

ikramerica · Sat Nov 10, 2007 3:43 am

I think CO is not interested in more 77Es, and the 789 is too far off (4 years for the first delivery). To maximize LHR, NRT, FRA and CDG, I can see CO deciding the extra 50+ seats make sense. Considering how full J can be on some 777 flights, would they add another 6-10 J seats? 60J/280Y sounds plausible in current CO configuration. If they intro'd a new flatbed product, they could do 54J/265Y or more.

LTU932 · Sat Nov 10, 2007 3:45 am

What about a few 77Ls for CO? I'm sure they could need them for routes such as EWR-BOM and EWR-HKG.

Wouldn't it make sense for CO to rather go for the 77L than for the 77W, or at least, buy 77Ls for ULH flights and a handful of 77Ws just for the trunk routes and longer hauls such as NRT?

alangirvan · Sat Nov 10, 2007 3:48 am

Quoting Ewr767 (Thread starter):
There may be a potential need to order some new 777-300er aircraft to fill the demand for some possible new destinations

New destinations? If CO is flying into LHR, there would a need for more seats for the destinations you already have. CO will have a very popular product into Heathrow. Either 50 more tourist seats, or 20 more Business seats would be useful. Would Tokyo use a bigger plane as well?

ikramerica · Sat Nov 10, 2007 3:51 am

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 3):
What about a few 77Ls for CO? I'm sure they could need them for routes such as EWR-BOM and EWR-HKG.

Wouldn't it make sense for CO to rather go for the 77L than for the 77W, or at least, buy 77Ls for ULH flights and a handful of 77Ws just for the trunk routes and longer hauls such as NRT?

I think ultimately, CO is happy "abusing" their 77Es on the long routes. The 77W has longer legs than the 77E as well, so CO can use them on the longest routes during peak demand, but I still think the 77W talk is due to LHR. They need to maximize utilization since they will have only a few slots. And since they would be buying a few, they could buy enough to also cover other routes that they think they can fill, like NRT and possibly CDG and FRA. That alone frees up 6 77Es for other routes (GUM anyone?).

Alias1024 · Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:36 am

It would seem like a smart move. As others have mentioned , they would be useful for optimizing the LHR slots they are acquiring. CDG, DEL, and TLV would probably all benefit from the extra seats as well.

CALMSP · Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:39 am

this probably is not a bad idea..........we dont currently know the true state of the 787 and whether or not we will see delivery delays......we certainly cant sit around for a few more years like many of the A380 customers have done.

Max Q · Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:41 am

I think most of our current 777 markets could easily support extra seats.

We new wide bodies NOW and the -300 would be an excellent aircraft for us.

ikramerica · Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:51 am

I know the 77W has been talked about before, but it was pre-LHR, and wasn't talked about seriously by CO itself, only by fans. Now the game has changed a bit.

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 7):
we certainly cant sit around for a few more years like many of the A380 customers have done.

CO is already short of widebodies and could use the 77Ws even if the 787s arrived on time. I know they held off on aircraft orders due to lack of funds, but it really hurt them on international expansion. I just wonder how quickly CO can get them. Do they have 777 options or purchase rights that allow them to jump the line a bit? The 77Es came relatively quickly after ordering them, less than 2 years.

The 77W might also give them an advantage in winning new China routes since they can provide 340 seats on the 77W while an airline like AA offers 75 fewer seats on the 77E.

AirTranTUS · Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:09 am

Quoting Ewr767 (Thread starter):
By next week we should have more firm details on our new slots at London Heathrow Airport.

I'll be waiting.

747fan · Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:22 am

I could definitely see CO using a 77W on IAH-NRT, which is definitely one of CO's best performing and most profitable flights. Same goes with IAH-LHR (well not yet). EWR-LHR, CDG, and TLV would also be good 77W routes. I do believe that CO will stick to the 772 on the longer EWR flights to NRT, PEK, PVG, DEL, and BOM. I know for a fact, based on a few previous threads and by looking at advanced bookings on CO's website, that EWR-NRT doesn't perform nearly as well (at least from a load standpoint, although EWR-NRT fares are definitely lower than IAH-NRT fares) as the Houston-Tokyo flight.

artsyman · Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:47 am

While I am awaiting confirmation of this, I'll add my hat to the pile of people that think its a good idea. Continental seems to be in a holding pattern on new routes due to lack of aircraft. How soon could Continental get them assuming they wanted them right away. How available are decent slots on the 773 ?

ikramerica · Sat Nov 10, 2007 6:18 am

Quoting Artsyman (Reply 12):
How available are decent slots on the 773 ?

I wonder if there are leased aircraft available sooner? CO leases 2 77Es and owns 18, and lease other aircraft, so there might be an opportunity to take leased 77Ws sooner and purchased 77Ws in 21-24 months. There are currently 13 77Ws due to lease companies (which may all be accounted for, I don't know) and 14 UFO 77Ws as of the end of October which might belong to lease companies (who often order established models as UFOs until a customer is announced to place them with).

While the backlog of 777s is 4 years (340 frames or so), not everyone who ordered them wants them ALL within the next 4 years, especially the F models. I would imagine there are slots here and there available starting in 24 months, maybe even sooner.

tjwgrr · Sat Nov 10, 2007 12:41 pm

Coming soon?

Modified Airliner Photos:

Design © Joe Perez
Template © K.L.Yim

CALMSP · Sat Nov 10, 2007 1:04 pm

OMG.............that is such a beautiful plane!!! Smile

columba · Sat Nov 10, 2007 1:12 pm

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 15):
OMG.............that is such a beautiful plane!!!

...an ER would look even better Smile

ARGinLON · Sat Nov 10, 2007 2:07 pm

Quoting Ewr767 (Thread starter):
The CEO Exchange was quite informative and encouraging as our future looks bright despite the rise in oil prices which is at about $114 per barrel of Jet Fuel

If oil stays where it is next year they will have to find a "few" millions out there to offset this. Surely some of it will come from fuel surcharge, small fare increases, etc, but the bulk of it I am not sure from where....

CJAContinental · Sat Nov 10, 2007 2:37 pm

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 3):
What about a few 77Ls for CO? I'm sure they could need them for routes such as EWR-BOM and EWR-HKG.

Also, with Houston booming, and new routes introduced in respect to the energy market, IAH could also benefit from the 77L's as well.

Quoting Tjwgrr (Reply 14):

Only it'll be powered by GE90-115B's Wink

ebj1248650 · Sat Nov 10, 2007 3:25 pm

Quoting Ewr767 (Thread starter):
There may be a potential need to order some new 777-300er aircraft to fill the demand for some possible new destinations.

MAY be a POTENTIAL need ... That sounds like they'er thinking about doing this but are still weighing all the factors. I don 't see anything here that suggests an order or lease contract in the near future. Still I agree with others that Continental colors on a 773ER would look real good. For the company's sake, I hope they find a DEFINITE need for the new airplanes.

sh0rtybr0wn · Sat Nov 10, 2007 3:57 pm

They should buy 12 777-300ERs. They'll make more money squeezing more pax onto the same routes. But really, they should have them by now. Its a great fit for their longhaul routes and they've got a huge 777 pilot pool who are already qualified to fly them.
They won't get their hands on 787-10s or A350-1000s until 2016 or longer. Ordering 12 77Ws is a safe bet; they could always lease them if for some reason they dont need them.

ikramerica · Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:09 pm

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 20):
They won't get their hands on 787-10s or A350-1000s until 2016 or longer. Ordering 12 77Ws is a safe bet; they could always lease them if for some reason they dont need them.

12 is a lot for CO. Maybe 8. They need enough to make sense, but the prospect of overbuying and leasing them out is not something an airline like CO looks to as a solution.

AF022 · Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:23 pm

if order were placed today, how soon could CO get them?

ChiGB1973 · Sat Nov 10, 2007 4:32 pm

Adding LHR will be a plus and may increase loads a bit, but there are several airlines what will start new service to LHR. NW, DL, US? along with established UA, BD, AA and BA.

I just don't see this as a venture that will require bigger planes for CO. Bigger planes themselves can drive down price, but adding several new airlines to a market, ie (U.K. to U.S.) will be a burden.

Time will tell. There is really no market for U.S. leisure travellers on that route right now. Business travellers and vacationing U.K. will make or break the loads and yields.

As far as adding more business class, that is not the trend at the moment. There may be a few more seats, but a percentage on the whole will remain about the same.

M

CALMSP · Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:07 pm

ordering 12 might not be a bad idea though........many of our long-haul markets require 2-3 a/c per city pair. With only 8 a/c, they would be used up very quickly.

philhyde · Sat Nov 10, 2007 5:36 pm

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 19):
MAY be a POTENTIAL need ... That sounds like they'er thinking about doing this but are still weighing all the factors. I don 't see anything here that suggests an order or lease contract in the near future. Still I agree with others that Continental colors on a 773ER would look real good. For the company's sake, I hope they find a DEFINITE need for the new airplanes.

I agree. If CO was considering augmenting the LHR route with the 777-300ER, the statement would have read differently. Based on what was posted, CO is holding the course with the 787 and 737-900ER for 2009, and thinking about new destinations for the 777-300ER.

LAXDESI · Sat Nov 10, 2007 6:04 pm

CO should consider flying to BLR with a 773ER; 772ER is not going to cut it. There are a lot of Indians in NY/NJ that hail from southern region of India.

fun2fly · Sat Nov 10, 2007 9:54 pm

Quoting AirTranTUS (Reply 10):
Quoting Ewr767 (Thread starter):
By next week we should have more firm details on our new slots at London Heathrow Airport.

I'll be waiting.

Smisek confirmed this in the conference this week. He said w/in 2 weeks the announcement would be out about LHR from IAH and EWR. Also, confirmed LGW stays for IAH, CLE, EWR. Mentioned good slot times and high prices for the slots.

tpaewr · Sat Nov 10, 2007 10:14 pm

The 77W with a LHR focus could also support a 3-class product. Which there is a market for in the NYC-LHR market. Thus CO would be not unlike AA, with their 772.

avek00 · Sat Nov 10, 2007 10:36 pm

Quoting Tpaewr (Reply 28):
The 77W with a LHR focus could also support a 3-class product. Which there is a market for in the NYC-LHR market. Thus CO would be not unlike AA, with their 772.

IMHO, the odds of CO doing an international F product is virtually zero --- it'd require a level of capital expenditures and brand realignment that are far beyond the historical tolerances of the airline's management. As far as cabin products go, trying to get through a BusinessFirst revamp and an expansion of the AVOD system over the next couple years would likely be about all that could come to pass in the current or anticipated airline financial environment.

1337Delta764 · Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:02 pm

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 29):
IMHO, the odds of CO doing an international F product is virtually zero --- it'd require a level of capital expenditures and brand realignment that are far beyond the historical tolerances of the airline's management. As far as cabin products go, trying to get through a BusinessFirst revamp and an expansion of the AVOD system over the next couple years would likely be about all that could come to pass in the current or anticipated airline financial environment.

I have actually been wondering if CO will introduce new sleeper suites or sloped-flat seats in the future. Delta and United are going with true sleeper suites made by Contour Premium and B/E Aerospace, respectively, while AA is going with Recaro CL 6510 sloped flat seats in their business class. I think that CO should consider an update to mantain a competitive international business class product.

Flighty · Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:09 pm

Another factor...

If UA and CO merged, they would need around 30-40 773ER.... Smile

to replace 744.

jacobin777 · Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:43 pm

Quoting AF022 (Reply 22):
if order were placed today, how soon could CO get them?

IIRC, they would be able to get them in the 2009-2010 time frame.....

NYC777 · Sat Nov 10, 2007 11:52 pm

Hell I could see AA, DL, and CO using 77Ws into LHR, especially from NYC. I wouldn't be surprised if AA could put 77W on each of it's ORD/JFK-LHR routes and they would fill them up and make tons of cash!!!!

ikramerica · Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:13 am

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 24):
With only 8 a/c, they would be used up very quickly.

IAH-LHR 1
IAH-LGW 1 (both combined replace current 2x IAH-LGW)
IAH-CDG 1
IAH-NRT 2 (leaving time at IAH for checks)
EWR-LHR 1
EWR-CDG 1 (1 frequency)
EWR-FRA 1

That's 8 and can cycle the planes through both hubs. If they did those routes. They don't need a spare as a 772 would be a sub if they needed it, or can fly on a tuesday or wednesday on certain routes, etc..

I don't see them flying the 77W to mainland Asia. That will be 772 and 787 territory. Other 777s can be used to take over for some 764 routes, which can take over for 762s, which can be used for new EU routes beyond 757 range, or new IAH-EU routes.

I could see 787 not

sh0rtybr0wn · Sun Nov 11, 2007 12:33 am

I was saying CO should get 77Ws just a couple months ago, and everybody was saying "America doesn't need the 77W, its too big for NYC and airlines from America." And I couldn't undestand that because if AC and AF and
NZ can, so should some from the U.S.
Now everybody thinks its a great idea for all American airlines to get them and I hope all of them do. More business class and more premium seats is more money.

I hope AA and UA follow Continental's lead and order up some kind of new longhaul metal soon. Its almost as if they're planning or banking on not being able to compete in the future.

nuggetsyl · Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:31 am

I would love to see cal order bigger aircraft because it means more fas which helps me out. But What they are saying leads me to think two things. 1 cal can get the 777-300 in less then a year. 2 they know the 787 will be delayed again and need to order now, to get the 777-300 in time to do what they need.

artsyman · Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:39 am

They certainly would not get used on CDG or many of the other routes listed above. You would see them going to NRT, TLV etc

777STL · Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:52 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 33):
I wouldn't be surprised if AA could put 77W on each of it's ORD/JFK-LHR routes and they would fill them up and make tons of cash!!!!

Could they do it? Probably.

Would they do it? Probably not.

AA favors frequency, not size. Nevermind that both of those markets are very saturated.

atmx2000 · Sun Nov 11, 2007 2:01 am

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 35):
I was saying CO should get 77Ws just a couple months ago, and everybody was saying "America doesn't need the 77W, its too big for NYC and airlines from America." And I couldn't undestand that because if AC and AF and NZ can, so should some from the U.S.

Actually, I always thought that some of the NYC based airlines could justify the 773ER on several NYC routes.

The weaker dollar favors it more in some ways, as with a weaker dollar comes higher oil prices but also lower labor costs in relation to the foreign competition. If you fly a bigger aircraft you have to increase the number of cabin and support personel. At the same time you are probably going to get a slightly poorer yields due to relatively more economy passengers. If your absolute labor costs are higher, then you may not be able to profitably serve those additional low yield customers. But if your absolute labor costs are dropping in relation to your foreign competition because of a weaker currency, you might be able to serve them profitably so expanding capacity would be a good thing.

777gk · Sun Nov 11, 2007 2:18 am

For how long during the early 2000s did we hear about the 'upcoming' 767-300ER order that never happened? I won't believe anything until there is some more evidence, but I do believe the time may be right for the 777-300ER at CO.

If there is an order, expect to see them replace 777-200ERs on existing routes/LHR, for example:

IAH-LHR
IAH-CDG
EWR-LHR
EWR-NRT
EWR-TLV

That would free up 772ERs for the upcoming EWR-PVG, plus the long-rumored IAH-DXB, which would probably do better with the lift of the Triple Seven as opposed to the lower capacity of the 787.

avek00 · Sun Nov 11, 2007 2:52 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 30):
I have actually been wondering if CO will introduce new sleeper suites or sloped-flat seats in the future. Delta and United are going with true sleeper suites made by Contour Premium and B/E Aerospace, respectively, while AA is going with Recaro CL 6510 sloped flat seats in their business class. I think that CO should consider an update to mantain a competitive international business class product.

CO is considering an update and it will almost certainly be a true lie-flat, and perhaps superior to the pseudo-coffins many airlines are installing at present. As an aside, AA is just wasting its money.

sh0rtybr0wn · Sun Nov 11, 2007 3:07 am

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 41):
pseudo-coffins many airlines are installing at present.

Laff.
I'll take a "pseudo coffin" on a CO 77W any day instead of a little chair for 14 hours. Its not a rafter of satin and roof of stone.

calpsafltskeds · Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:35 am

Quoting Nuggetsyl (Reply 36):
But What they are saying leads me to think two things. 1 cal can get the 777-300 in less then a year. 2 they know the 787 will be delayed again and need to order now, to get the 777-300 in time to do what they need.

If the 787 is truly going to be delayed, CO, being a major Boeing customer, should be able to get some 77Ws more quickly than being placed on the bottom of the list. CO could firm up a few more 787 orders from the options list to help Boeing make it happen.

fun2fly · Sun Nov 11, 2007 1:32 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 34):
IAH-LHR 1
IAH-LGW 1 (both combined replace current 2x IAH-LGW)
IAH-CDG 1
IAH-NRT 2 (leaving time at IAH for checks)
EWR-LHR 1
EWR-CDG 1 (1 frequency)
EWR-FRA 1

If they only order 8, can't see any of them at IAH. CO is conservative, so 8 would be a big number to them, but not to most. CO said they were trying to find aircraft in the marketplace, but I really cannot see the free aircraft and figure they must order a few units. Any order would probably then have the "new" Business First product.

2-EWR>LHR (slots are expensive and this provides the most lift). These are new routes and would not affect aircraft inventory. Routes would have to be 772's until 77w's delivered.

2-EWR>TLV (offsets short LHR flights w/long TLV flights for aircraft rotation). This transfers 2 772's for EWR>PVG provided 77w's are delivered prior to Mar 09.

2-EWR>India TBD or existing city and compete w. Jet. This would free up 2 772's for expansion.

2- placement of the final two wildcard 77w aircraft will be for capacity or aircraft issues:
- 2 more India (free up 2 777's)
- CDG to eliminate the 3rd flight (free up 752)
- FCO to eliminate the 2nd flight (free up 762)
- FRA to increase capacity (free up 764)

Aircaft impact:
The net of the purchase of 8 77w's is 5 aircraft free for expansion and allocation: 4 above and 1 from the 3rd 752 fliggh EWR>LGW. The best case scenario of 4 free 772's allows CO to open up 2 long haul routes using 2 aircraft and one TATL 752 route . The worst case of 2 772's and a mix of 764/762/752 would allow CO to open 1 long haul routes using 2 aircraft and 3 TATL routes using a mix of 764/762/752.

I would not be suprised if they just "topped off" 2-4 772's. Only CO knows the true potential of delays at Boeing. The delays, LHR, and PVG have put a kink into the plans at CO, but I'm positive the have all the analysis and scenarios built to accomodate. Regardless of what they pick, they'd probably lease them for a period of 10-12 years to be replaced w/789 aircraft.

worldsurfer · Sun Nov 11, 2007 2:57 pm

Quoting Tpaewr (Reply 28):
The 77W with a LHR focus could also support a 3-class product. Which there is a market for in the NYC-LHR market. Thus CO would be not unlike AA, with their 772.

I would say the only way CO has a 3 class config on any of their planes
would be by adding a Premium Economy product

STT757 · Sun Nov 11, 2007 4:49 pm

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 30):
I have actually been wondering if CO will introduce new sleeper suites or sloped-flat seats in the future

CO will introduce their new J product with the 787s, beginning in 2009.

The 777-300ER makes perfect sense for CO, especially at EWR where CO needs to grow in order to fend off increased competition . CO's revenues from EWR are growing tremendously, as made evident in this Houston Chronicle piece about how EWR with much fewer flights that IAH is about to pass IAH in terms of revenues.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/5290789.html

CO needs to focus on growing EWR's passengers, without growing flights too much. How does CO accomplish this, they are already starting domestically with replacing 37 and 50 seat ERJs with 74 seat Q-400s and 737-800s with 737-900ERs. The next logical progression is to introduce the 777-300ER, this will have a positive effect on the all other long haul flights. 777-300ERs replace 777-200ERs, 777-200ERs replace 767-400s, 767-400s replace 767-200s, 767-200s replace 757s etc.. It provides a capability to increase capacity on current routes without adding increased frequencies.

A CO 777-300ER order of between 7-10 aircraft would address their needs on the following routes:

777-300ERs;

EWR-

LHR 1-2 daily, TLV 2 daily, BOM 1 daily, DEL 1 daily

IAH-

LHR 1-2 daily

ConcordeBoy · Sun Nov 11, 2007 8:42 pm

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 35):
And I couldn't undestand that because if AC and AF and
NZ can, so should some from the U.S.

...you're saying you can't understand the flaw in linearly comparing the operations of six USA carriers to that of two airlines that essentially have the intercontinental market-by-a-home-carrier of their entire respective countries on lock?

Quoting 777gk (Reply 40):
plus the long-rumored IAH-DXB, which would probably do better with the lift of the Triple Seven

...LR.
Would CO be willing to suffer the massive payload hit it'd take to get a 772ER to Houston outta Dubai reliably?
Or even more so, would they actually choose Houston over New York? One might think so-- but then again, look at from whence they choose to operate the proposed LOS service?

LAXDESI · Sun Nov 11, 2007 9:10 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 46):
A CO 777-300ER order of between 7-10 aircraft would address their needs on the following routes:
777-300ERs;

EWR-
LHR 1-2 daily, TLV 2 daily, BOM 1 daily, DEL 1 daily

IAH-
LHR 1-2 daily

I hope they order more, and seriously consider starting service to BLR.

STT757 · Sun Nov 11, 2007 10:09 pm

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 48):
I hope they order more, and seriously consider starting service to BLR.

CO has already publicly announced their intentions to fly to Chennai, Bangalore and Hyderabad when the 787s arrive.

http://in.news.yahoo.com/071003/137/6lhzb.html

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