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CHRISBA777ER
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A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 7:21 pm

I think the next few months could define the A380 programme.

With Airbus finally beginning to tout around the massive A389, I think airlines choosing if and what their VLA requirement should be met with are facing some interesting choices.

Let me get this out of the way - I always expected BA to get the A380 and I said so on here. With regards to the 748I vs A388 debate, I think people always stated BA as being the acid test for both frames, but I dont buy that. I think the real test is yet to come. There are four airlines who are making their minds up now if reports are to be believed, and I think all four are very much 748I heartland. We could see the 748i make up some ground here.

MH - Already ordered the A388 and I think would take the A389 for six frames. They could definitely use the 748i but will they? I think they are a shoe-in for the A350XWB (could be wrong) and I have always thought they could make use of more A380s than they have on order. On paper you'd think the 748I would be absolutely ideal for them and would dovetail beautifully between their 772ER and A388 to replace their 744s. Totally 50-50.

TG - As with Malaysian, they have elderly 744s to replace and have the A388 on order. Also like MH the 748I would dovetail really nicely in between the A346 and A388. They have a lot of 744s to replace and if the 748I is as good as Boeing say it will be then it makes a pretty compelling case. I think TG will end up with some A389s to do the European trunk routes and will favour it over the smaller 800 because of the extra cargo uplift. Very much 50-50.

CX - Same as MH and TG. Totally 50-50.

AI - Same as MH, CX and TG. Totally 50-50.

All things being equal I would expect to see the 748 pick up some orders here, i really would. Best case would be that all four decide to take ten frames and also take A388/9s for their future VLA requirements. I am not saying that any 748I order would come at the expense of an A380 order, as in all likelihood all four may go A380 AND 748I, but rather that these four airlines are very much the 748I target group - we will know for sure whether the passenger 747 is a success or a marginal niche player like the 764ER once all four have chosen.

I think all four players would be looking at whether they order some or some more A388s and abuse them for the sake of commonality and fleet size efficiency, a la probably EK (at least initially) and maybe EY as well, or whether they take some 748Is and subscribe to the right plane/right route/right time ethos that LH has. In fact, in the case of MH and TG it may be an interesting experiment in the values of commonality vs forcast tailoring. This is a really interesting battle.

As I've said on here before - many people spent much of 2004, 2005, 2006 and even this year judging the A380 on today's markets and I have always felt that it is tomorrow's plane for tomorrow's markets. I also think they should have waited five years to bring it to market and concentrated on what is now the A350XWB but thats a topic for another thread. I think there are a number of airlines who would buy the 748I because the A380 is too much plane for them, (perhaps BR, CA, PK, NZ, MU, CZ and a few others in the medium term), so I dont think the programme is in any danger per se, but I really feel the above four airlines will determine whether the 748I stands up against the A388 for some airlines' requirements.

As I said - interesting times ahead.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
dl767captain
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:21 pm

With airlines looking at the A389 there will be a large capacity gap between their 777 (for examplye) and the A389, more than between the 777 and A388. Some airlines like VS, BA, and maybe other airlines might move their A388 orders to the A389 for added capacity and better economy, with these airlines have large premium cabins that take a lot of space they could order the A389 and have about the same capacity they would have wanted on the A388. But this is where the 748 comes in. It adds extra capacity over the 744 and offers a great capacity filler between the 777 and A389. There are routes that won't warrant an A388 let a lone an A389, but also routes that need more than a 777, the 748 fits that gap. Airlines will be expanding to new destinations when they get the A380 they 744s (that can still fly) will be moved to possible the 777 routes and the 777s will open new routes. Eventually the 744s will need to be replaced and if there is an A389 order but no A388 then a 748 will be needed. There is no way there can be that large of a gap between the 777 and A389 unless the A389 has so much open space that it will hold the same as the 748.

As for the airlines deciding between the two.

UA: I really don't think they could use an A380, a 748 would give them some extra capacity and they need more capacity on those routes than a 777 can give

NW: If they order the A380 they are kind of stupid, the 747 fits their routes perfectly, and a 748 would compliment the 787 fleet quite nicely.

Air New Zealand: It seems they are moving towards a 777 and 787 fleet for longhaul but if there is any expansion they could really use the 748 on routes that need some extra capacity.

Qantas: i really would like to see them order the 748 but it seems they can warrant the A380 on their routes.

KLM: i dont think they will order either, right now their 747s are mostly combi versions so they aren't really using the entire capacity for passengers and the 77W can probably serve their routes the best.

Air France: kind of difficult, they have the A380 on order and many 77Ws, so it really depends on how large of a capacity gap they will have between the 77W and A380 if they will need the 748 or not.

Virgin Atlantic: if they change their A388s to A389s then i could really see them ordering 748s to put on routes that do not need an A389.

British Airways: i really thought they would order the 748 but they ordered a small number of A380s that definately will not replace all those 744s, i think the 748 could still be an option but they never said anything until i heard the EK guy talk about the 777NG.

The 777NG could really make a lot of airlines wait on the 748 to see what Boeing offers.

I think LH has the right idea with the 748 A380 combination and i do expect other airlines to follow
 
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Stitch
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:29 pm

I'm just not sure airlines feel that a straight gradation in capacity is important anymore. And the 747-400 and 747-8I are not selling because of it.

If you can add frequencies, then you fly multiple 777-300ERs and A350-1000s. No need for a 747 because it's just not as efficient as a twin.

If you cannot add frequencies, then you need as big as you can get, and that means A380-800 and A380-900.
 
BlueShamu330s
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:36 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
I'm just not sure airlines feel that a straight gradation in capacity is important anymore. And the 747-400 and 747-8I are not selling because of it.

If you can add frequencies, then you fly multiple 777-300ERs and A350-1000s. No need for a 747 because it's just not as efficient as a twin.

If you cannot add frequencies, then you need as big as you can get, and that means A380-800 and A380-900.

Absolutely 100% on the money. Well put.  checkmark 

Shamu
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ikramerica
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:40 pm

The A380-900 might make the 748I more attractive. For airlines with 777s and older 744s, the capacity spacing between the 777 and the A380-900 leaves room for a plane in the middle, and if they already fly 744s, the transition to 748I is minimal. Carriers that choose the A350X may not choose the 748I, but those with GE777s and choosing GE787-9s and 787-10s may take the 748I even if they go with a limited number of A389s (EA version...) for the super top end.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):

I think ultimately you will see 80-100 748I sales over it's life. Nothing big, but combined with 300 748F sales, that's maybe 300 sales the A380 doesn't get (as I would have expected another 50-100 744F orders no matter what if the 748F weren't offered).

JL end up with 10 748I, 10 VIP, UA with 20, LH with 20, one other asian carrier with 20 (one of your four sounds reasonable), and then who knows for the other 20 sales. BA may do an about face and order 15, another asian carrier might order 10-20 (like KE?) or one of the other three you list may order 10-20.
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sparkingwave
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 1:42 pm

the 747-8I may not sell in as many numbers as the A380, but OTOH, will the A380 PROGRAM make as much profit as the 747-8 program? Methinks not, at least in the short-term.

How can Airbus even contemplate a go-ahead for the A380-900 when the A380-800 is still financially unproven? That they even consider doing so is proof enough of some kind of free-reign financial assistance...
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CHRISBA777ER
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 1:51 pm



Quoting Sparkingwave (Reply 5):
the 747-8I may not sell in as many numbers as the A380, but OTOH, will the A380 PROGRAM make as much profit as the 747-8 program? Methinks not, at least in the short-term.

How can Airbus even contemplate a go-ahead for the A380-900 when the A380-800 is still financially unproven? That they even consider doing so is proof enough of some kind of free-reign financial assistance...

Or an understanding that the A380 will not recover the development and launch costs without an extension to the portfolio and the extension to the family's appeal and lifespan that comes with it. Perhaps they recognise that whilst the A388 may not recover the whole cost on its own, the whole A380 family which may sell for another 30 years in a number of guises, might well do.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 2:05 pm



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 6):

Or an understanding that the A380 will not recover the development and launch costs without an extension to the portfolio and the extension to the family's appeal and lifespan that comes with it. Perhaps they recognise that whilst the A388 may not recover the whole cost on its own, the whole A380 family which may sell for another 30 years in a number of guises, might well do.

Perhaps but what, in the long and short run, would be a wiser investment; putting more money into a plane which is without competition or investing something which is a much better chance of making more profit and sooner.

Have there been any customers say that they would 100% guarantee a -900 purchase while refusing to buy the -800? I don't think so. So far, all we've heard about are customers saying they'd consider changing their order.

The 380 is a done deal. After a decade or so it may turn a profit. Groovy. There will never be a competitor for it...unless Airbus makes one.

Invest the money where it can make the most money. That's business.
What the...?
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 2:17 pm



Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 7):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 6):

Or an understanding that the A380 will not recover the development and launch costs without an extension to the portfolio and the extension to the family's appeal and lifespan that comes with it. Perhaps they recognise that whilst the A388 may not recover the whole cost on its own, the whole A380 family which may sell for another 30 years in a number of guises, might well do.

Perhaps but what, in the long and short run, would be a wiser investment; putting more money into a plane which is without competition or investing something which is a much better chance of making more profit and sooner.

Have there been any customers say that they would 100% guarantee a -900 purchase while refusing to buy the -800? I don't think so. So far, all we've heard about are customers saying they'd consider changing their order.

The 380 is a done deal. After a decade or so it may turn a profit. Groovy. There will never be a competitor for it...unless Airbus makes one.

Invest the money where it can make the most money. That's business.

Thats market consolidation. Airbus obviously feels that with the A320 family replacement, the A350XWB and the A380 they have got it covered. My feeling is that tweaks and additions to the family are gearing to a large extent towards broadening the range of products and closing any gaps in capacity for its customers.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
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Stitch
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 2:21 pm



Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 7):
Perhaps but what, in the long and short run, would be a wiser investment; putting more money into a plane which is without competition or investing something which is a much better chance of making more profit and sooner.

It is important to remember that Airbus will help undermine the A380-800's overall economic case in 2014 with the introduction of the A350-1000. And Boeing will do so soon after with the 787-11 or the Y3-200.

Creating a larger A380-900 helps restore that case. It may be more a way to protect the A380 program from competitors - "foreign and domestic" - then just a pure family expansion role.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 2:25 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 9):
then just a pure family expansion role.

Blimey.

I think Stich and I just agreed on something. I need to lie down.  Wink
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
jtdieffen
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 3:43 pm



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 6):
Or an understanding that the A380 will not recover the development and launch costs without an extension to the portfolio and the extension to the family's appeal and lifespan that comes with it. Perhaps they recognise that whilst the A388 may not recover the whole cost on its own, the whole A380 family which may sell for another 30 years in a number of guises, might well do.

Very true, but I wonder what returns they can realistically expect. Does adding more investment into the program help add value and eventually a positive return on their investment, or does it just add to the break even number. I think my biggest question is how many frames can they realistically expect to sell? The -800 is far too much plane for many airlines, so adding even more seats doesn't seem like it increases the level of appeal from airlines. I realize that we're projecting out ten years or more, but still, the current model hasn't broken 200 frames in nearly eight years on the market. More will come, but besides Emirates, how many airlines will seriously buy it? VS might, but that's a big might at the moment. And unfortunately, we still have no clear idea if the megalomaniacs in Dubai have the right idea or not. It might turn out they could easily fill a hundred -900s every day, or it may turn out in the end that they can't even fill the -800s they have.

I'm not at all trying to bash the idea. I would love to see a -900, but I just wonder if it'll just be a case of Robbing peter to pay Paul. Will there be enough -900 sales and would they further strip down -800 sales?
Regards! JDief
 
columba
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 3:59 pm



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
On paper you'd think the 748I would be absolutely ideal for them and would dovetail beautifully between their 772ER and A388 to replace their 744s. Totally 50-50.

MH has a big Boeing/Airbus fleet. They have 6 A380s on order and the 747-8I/F could replace the rest of the 744s and 747-200Fs.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
TG - As with Malaysian, they have elderly 744s to replace and have the A388 on order. Also like MH the 748I would dovetail really nicely in between the A346 and A388. They have a lot of 744s to replace and if the 748I is as good as Boeing say it will be then it makes a pretty compelling case.

Thai already stated that they will likely order the 747-8I next year.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
CX

50-50 as you said.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
AI

A380 all the way.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 1):
UA: I really don't think they could use an A380, a 748 would give them some extra capacity and they need more capacity on those routes than a 777 can give

Either way, one of the only US airlines that I can see ordering the A380.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 1):
NW: If they order the A380 they are kind of stupid, the 747 fits their routes perfectly, and a 748 would compliment the 787 fleet quite nicely.

They have a huge freighter fleet and the combination of converted 747s and 747-8Is (+747-8Fs) could make sense for them.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 1):
Virgin Atlantic: if they change their A388s to A389s then i could really see them ordering 748s to put on routes that do not need an A389.

747-8I for Gatwick, A380 for Heathrow.
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pnwtraveler
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 4:01 pm

I think as usual it all goes down to who's vision of the market place will reflect the choice by the most number of customers. I say most because I have always thought there is room for both planes and while they are grouped together because they are over X number of seats they are like comparing apples and oranges.

Certainly there is a need in slot restricted airports to bring in the most possible passengers in each given slot as long as the volume of customers will bear it. And leisure travelers can be more flexible and are willing to fly when you do. The top end customers tend to be the most time sensitive ones and have often voted with convenience when all things are similar or equal. For example a businessman who is flying from A to B for meetings and paying top dollar because he booked at the last minute will fly when his schedule dictates and so he is often in favour of frequency. I often adjusted my schedule by a few hours to fly on a particular aircraft, or avoid a particular aircraft type, or even airline. But often I had no choice.
 
EI321
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 4:02 pm



Quoting DL767captain (Reply 1):
With airlines looking at the A389 there will be a large capacity gap between their 777 (for examplye) and the A389, more than between the 777 and A388. Some airlines like VS, BA, and maybe other airlines might move their A388 orders to the A389 for added capacity and better economy, with these airlines have large premium cabins that take a lot of space they could order the A389 and have about the same capacity they would have wanted on the A388.

But dont forget that its unlikely we will see the A389 before 2015. For this reason I do believe that the vast majority of existing A388 orders (maybe all of them) will indeed be deilivered as standard -800s.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 1):
Qantas: i really would like to see them order the 748 but it seems they can warrant the A380 on their routes.

Qantas have ruled out the 748 completley.
 
trex8
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 4:50 pm

CI have 36 744s to replace especially the pax ones. 4 are new (the last 4 pax ones built) but the others were all delivered in the 90s and since their 742 crash a few years ago they do not want any old airframes in the fleet (>10 years) so those 11 planes need replacing in the next few years, the 744Fs can soldier on a little longer but will still need replacing in the early/mid part of the next decade. for political reasons they could split this order. an A380 could work for their US west coast flights and the 748s for everything else and their cargo ops.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 5:00 pm



Quoting Columba (Reply 12):
Thai already stated that they will likely order the 747-8I next year.

I bet you €20 they dont.  Wink
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
hawkercamm
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 5:55 pm

The A380-900 development costs will most likely be covered by the cost to airlines converting from -800s to -900.

If 60 frames are converted with the addition of $40M thats $2.4B. IMO that seems fair.
Even 60 frames with the addition of $30M ($1.8B) would be enough.

[Edited 2007-11-20 09:56:04]
 
bmacleod
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 6:50 pm

SA - Sad to see that they won't be ordering aircraft till at least 2009 and that A346s seem to be largest they will operate. A 380 would look fantastic in SA colors....

PR - Not sure yet where they're headed....

[Edited 2007-11-20 10:54:30]
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JRDC930
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 6:54 pm

This will indeed bee some interesting times for both planes. I think we will start seeing the A380 pick up the pace of orders like predicted now that the plane is in service, and i think we will see a lot of 744 operators defecting from boeing to the A380's superior capacity and to an extent flexibility. It will also be hard for the 748i, as Boeing will come to see that there is no 450 seat market niche; at least not in Asia. i doubt a tiny 8 plane order would boost the program,and i think we will see less and less potential 748i customers as the A380 and even the 777 picks up on sales from airlines wishing to add capacity, or frequency. It will be fun to see how the A380 does, but at the same time sad to see my fear of the 748i being a one carrier aircraft confirmed...  Sad o well... just My humble opinion.
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ikramerica
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 7:19 pm



Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 19):
It will also be hard for the 748i, as Boeing will come to see that there is no 450 seat market niche; at least not in Asia.

??? So you are somehow claiming there is no market for a plane between 360 and 550 seats (nominal)?

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 19):
i think we will see a lot of 744 operators defecting from boeing to the A380's superior capacity and to an extent flexibility.

Define flexibility? Larger planes are rarely more flexible unless they bring something like added range to the table (why the 747 did so well).

You obviously have a POV, and that's fine. So do I. But please enlighten us to how you draw your conclusions. Thanks.
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EI321
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 7:32 pm



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 20):
Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 19):
It will also be hard for the 748i, as Boeing will come to see that there is no 450 seat market niche; at least not in Asia.

??? So you are somehow claiming there is no market for a plane between 360 and 550 seats (nominal)?

There is, but its tiny. Thats the problem with the 747-8i.

- Its not small enough to serve the p2p market

- Its not large enough to compete on capacity at over-congested hubs where airlines want the largest aircraft available
, CASM (about 5% higher), or the so called 'passenger experience' that the A380 offers.

PS the A380 is a 525 seater now  Wink
 
JRDC930
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 7:44 pm



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 20):
But please enlighten us to how you draw your conclusions. Thanks.

I think the following illustrates the same reasons i came to my conclusions. Also the A380 allows Asian airlines not operating it to compete head to head with the other A380 launch customers, which the 748i cant. And while prestige may not be a big factor, airlines none the less do have ego's, and no ones going to be cheering the "middle man " 748i. Besides if there was a SIGNIFICANT niche for a 450 seat market, dont you think we would see some interest in the plane form more than just one airline. Not to mention its already lost one MAJOR MAJOR head to head battle to the A380.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 21):
Its not small enough to serve the p2p market

- Its not large enough to compete on capacity at over-congested hubs where airlines want the largest aircraft available
, CASM (about 5% higher), or the so called 'passenger experience' that the A380 offers.

Perfect points. Couldnt have said it better.  Smile
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KennyK
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Tue Nov 20, 2007 9:59 pm

I recollect that Iberia and Virgin are looking for VLAs in the next few months, Virgin to replace 744s primarily for charter/holiday routes. My two pence worth is for Iberia to go for A388s and Virgin... well thats fairly open, I believe they are looking at around 10 airframes and a 748 order would not be surprising.

Any thoughts ?
 
ikramerica
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Wed Nov 21, 2007 3:42 am



Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 22):
Perfect points. Couldnt have said it better.

I don't agree with the points.

It leaves out Hub-Major city, and again, it ignores the reality that the 748I has better CARGO ability than the A388 after pax bags are accounted for, something more valuable than carrying along an extra 75 of the lowest yielding Y pax on less lucrative "dense" routes.

For some airlines this may win out. We'll see. Again, I'm only projecting about 100 748I sales anytime soon (including the 25 already sold). It may be 100 ever. But there will be a market for the plane in limited numbers for certain airlines. And who knows, if it gains sales momentum, you may see orders for 2, 3 or 5 like you are seeing from some carriers for the A380. You can't really predict those.
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Farnborough24
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Wed Nov 21, 2007 12:16 pm

I'm not so sure about the 748I selling particularly to the big airlines-they probably won't want to run a subfleet of about 5-10 just for routes that fit in between the 777W/350-1000 bracket and the 380 level of demand, and hence I would imagine most of them will just shuffle things around to avoid getting a new jet for a handful of routes. To provide a hugely over-simplified example, a route needing about 800 odd seats a day each way could be served by 2 748I's, or a 380 and a 77W/350-1000. Of course there will be cases when roughly 400 seats could be needed-could run 2 788s? Either way, I think for fleet simplicity we will not see that many 748Is in the biggest airlines-LH surprised me by ordering it. However, I do think it has a market to sell to. Someone mentioned NZ earlier as a potential buyer, and this wouldn't come as a surprise to me. Yes they are dumping 744s atm, as the 777s are much more efficient, and hence the capacity hit is justified by the savings. But the 748I would surely allow them to operate routes at 777 (or probably better) efficiency, but with the greater capacity these routes can clearly justify, which sounds like a recipie for making money to me. They are too small an airline to have the 380 I feel, and I'm not sure any route of theirs would need one, but certainly AKL-LAX and AKL-HKG-LHR/AKL-LAX-LHR could be 748 routes. If you ask me, it's airlines like this that will boost the 748I program. Having said all that, I believe, along with many others on here, that the whole program has been justified by the freighter anyway, so I doubt Boeing are losing too much sleep over it.
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scbriml
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Wed Nov 21, 2007 12:32 pm



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 20):
So you are somehow claiming there is no market for a plane between 360 and 550 seats (nominal)?

There is, but it seems to be rather small. How many planes larger than a 773 has Boeing sold in the last 5 years?

In 7 years, the A380 has barely pulled together 200 sales. While the A380 seems to be generating some additional interest with EIS and BA's order, I think it will struggle to gain more than 30 orders a year.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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columba
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Wed Nov 21, 2007 1:08 pm



Quoting KennyK (Reply 23):
I recollect that Iberia and Virgin are looking for VLAs in the next few months, Virgin to replace 744s primarily for charter/holiday routes. My two pence worth is for Iberia to go for A388s and Virgin... well thats fairly open, I believe they are looking at around 10 airframes and a 748 order would not be surprising.

Any thoughts ?

I think for VS Gatwick fleet the 747-8I is better suited than the A380. Together with the commonality with VS´s 787 on order I have high hopes for VS ordering the 747-8I.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 21):
Its not large enough to compete on capacity at over-congested hubs where airlines want the largest aircraft available
, CASM (about 5% higher), or the so called 'passenger experience' that the A380 offers.

Well it is larger than the 747-400 which was used for these kind of flights before.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 16):
I bet you €20 they dont

20€ is a bit too much for me  Smile I am just a poor student.
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jtdieffen
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Wed Nov 21, 2007 4:22 pm



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 24):
It leaves out Hub-Major city, and again, it ignores the reality that the 748I has better CARGO ability than the A388 after pax bags are accounted for, something more valuable than carrying along an extra 75 of the lowest yielding Y pax on less lucrative "dense" routes.

Agreed. For some airlines, cargo capacity is an important factor. And to say also that there is no market between the 77W and A388 is foolish. No offense to anyone, but I think you're only saying this because that's what you think, not what you know. And yes, I know, I know, the orders just haven't materialized, but again, one must be patient. If, after five years, we're in the same place, I'd be more than happy to jump on the band-wagon with you, but it's way too early for that. I know it seems absurd, but the A380 may just be too much airplane for some airlines. A huge jump in capacity can only be justified by a huge jump in market-growth and individual market-share.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 26):
How many planes larger than a 773 has Boeing sold in the last 5 years?

Ummm...well, the 744 was basically supplanted at the top of Boeing's portfolio by the 77W, and the 748i has only been on offer for 2 years, so...I don't know, but it seems hard to really judge the "larger the 773" market for five years, since they've really only had a viable plane larger than the 773 for two years. Of that, they've sold 25.

The problem is again, everyone is standing back and saying the 748i is a poor seller. To some extent they're right. I hasn't brought in a hundred orders yet. But again, it comes down to decisions over time and pending fleet decisions. The peak renewal cycle for the 744 hasn't even arrived.

And yes, I KNOW British Airways didn't buy it, but so what, Lufthansa did. And frankly, I think Lufthansa has as much if not more on the ball than BA in terms of fleet planning. They're an extremely well managed airline, so their decision should give everyone here something to sit back and consider.

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 19):
It will be fun to see how the A380 does, but at the same time sad to see my fear of the 748i being a one carrier aircraft confirmed...

I'm starting to think you must be related to Leahy. I'm always a little surprised and frustrated with the continued pretense that you care about the 748i. Maybe you do and just don't verbalize it well, but I struggle to believe that as I've never seen you say a positive thing about it, at least not without bashing it in the same sentence. No offense, but if you really wanted to see it succeed, then I would think that you would wait for a larger number of orders to pass it by before condemning it into the scrap yard.

I'll be the first person to admit when the 748i has truly passed beyond any hope, but it won't be for a long while yet. It just surprises me how many people sit and scream the praises of the A380 (which they should, at least for the plane's sake), which has struggled to break 200 sales, and is frankly only close to that number because one single airline has ordered 60 of them. The bottom line is neither model is selling like hotcakes, they both offer something different, the A380 was on offer for six years longer than the 748i, and truly only time will tell how they each do in the end. I would bet you that the 748i will prove much more worth it to the Boeing accountants than the A380 ever will to the Airbus ones.
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SEPilot
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Wed Nov 21, 2007 4:58 pm



Quoting Jtdieffen (Reply 28):
The bottom line is neither model is selling like hotcakes, they both offer something different, the A380 was on offer for six years longer than the 748i, and truly only time will tell how they each do in the end. I would bet you that the 748i will prove much more worth it to the Boeing accountants than the A380 ever will to the Airbus ones.

The 748F will make the 748 program viable, even if they never sell another 748i. I can see that if passenger demand is the issue, there is little incentive for most airlines to buy the 748i over the A380; if they can fill the 748, they will likely be able to make money with the A380 as there is more growth potential and costs are only marginally higher. The only advantage to buying the 748 is if they also want to carry cargo, where the 748 has a distinct advantage, or if they are looking down the road and plan to convert it to a freighter later. I still believe that the 748i will sell a respectable number, but the bulk of the passenger VLA sales will be A380's. The 748 program will make a respectable profit for Boeing; the jury is still out on whether or not the A380 will ever earn a dime of profit for Airbus.
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JayinKitsap
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Wed Nov 21, 2007 5:27 pm



Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 22):
Not to mention its already lost one MAJOR MAJOR head to head battle to the A380.

Yes, one major competition, but that does not make a season. But the win for the 380 was an order for 12. I think BA saw that having a dozen 380s would work in their fleet, but without experience with the type and knowing the true margins they did not want to commit to more. In essence, they kicked the can down the road some 5 years the decision on which VLA to select for their replacements. With open skies, the need for VLA's as opposed to 777/350-1000 is an open question. The 12 VLA's ordered now will let them plan for more pressing fleet replacements.

Historically VLA's have been ordered at about 40 per year. The 747 used to get all of that, but now it is a shared market. The need for a VLA to obtain range now has several alternates, so many airlines are replacing their 747's with 777 sized craft and soon 787-10 and 350-1000 also. Countering this trend is a general increase in traffic so VLA demand is probably going to remain around 40 per year, possibly up to 50 per year average.

Some of the advantages of the 748I/F's are: a) Lower landing fees at airports where weight based (NRT is the best example). b) Combined cargo + pax capabilities - ie, if the plane isn't full can the belly carry enough to assist with revenues. It is pretty scary to think of the economics of a half full 380, c) Commonality if the airline has 744, 748F, & 748I in their fleet. Pilots, crews and maintenance all are easier.

Some of the advantages of the 380's are: a) Large pax capacity, b) All currrent generation technology. c) Excellent CASM and revenue if all the seats full.

The VLA market will split 3 ways, assuming a 50 per year order rate it would likely break out as follows:
748F - 12 per year 748I - 6 per year 380 - 30 per year. Boeing will be able to build 20 per year for a decade or more. Airbus will need to settle on producing 30 per year verses the 40 to 48 they hoped for. Boeing will have a decent ROI, but with the pricing pressure of the 748 the margins on the 380 and volume of sales will push the day where break even is reached painfully out, the production of LN420 will be beyond 2020.
 
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Stitch
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Wed Nov 21, 2007 6:07 pm



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 29):
The 748F will make the 748 program viable, even if they never sell another 748i. I can see that if passenger demand is the issue, there is little incentive for most airlines to buy the 748i over the A380; if they can fill the 748, they will likely be able to make money with the A380 as there is more growth potential and costs are only marginally higher.

I wonder if that is the trend we are seeing being played out?

A dual-role strategy where airlines send the passengers on an A380-800 and the freight on a 747-8F.

An A380-800 has one additional LD3 position after passenger bags are accounted for then a 747-400, so it is no wonder no airline has bought a 747-400 since the program launched because it just doesn't make economic sense. The A380-800 carries more people and as much revenue cargo.

The 747-8's advantage is revenue cargo capacity. For LH, their 747-8I has 7 to 8 more available LD3 positions then their A380-800. But this advantage also extended to the 747-X and 747-X Stretch and neither of them gained traction.

It may just be that revenue cargo on those routes for A380 operators either is not robust enough or it is so robust that they use dedicated freighters to move it.
 
JRDC930
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RE: A380/748I - Interesting Times Ahead.

Wed Nov 21, 2007 9:58 pm



Quoting Jtdieffen (Reply 28):
I'm starting to think you must be related to Leahy. I'm always a little surprised and frustrated with the continued pretense that you care about the 748i. Maybe you do and just don't verbalize it well, but I struggle to believe that as I've never seen you say a positive thing about it, at least not without bashing it in the same sentence. No offense, but if you really wanted to see it succeed, then I would think that you would wait for a larger number of orders to pass it by before condemning it into the scrap yard.

I'll be the first person to admit when the 748i has truly passed beyond any hope, but it won't be for a long while yet.

I dont have to be blind to facts to like the 748i, I have said it before, if he748i does break 50 or 60 orders, then i'll gladly put my foot in my mouth. I also understand your opinion, that maybe i'm jumping the gun on the 748i being a sales failure, however you and i will disagree here. 2 years with only one order may not be a 100% indicator of failure, but 2 years has been a good amount of time for many prospective airlines to evaluate this plane. Many of these airlines people are happy to point out are 744 operators, but forget to mention that several large 744 operators have gone with the A380 from the start; AF, Virgin, KE,LH,MH,QF,SQ,and TG... only one of which having decided to order the 748i as well. These are some of the largest 744 operators, and they went with the 380, why would they even consider the 748i any more? A 777 or 350 could almost as easily fill the passenger gap? So you see, while i cant know what these or other potential customers are thinking, the fact so many previous 744 operators have gone A380 leaves me to believe other 744 operators are probably leaning more toward the 380 a means of growth. Thats my reasoning. As for if its to early to tell... well i guess we will just have to see if i have to put my foot in my mouth  Smile
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