FCKC
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AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:16 pm

http://www.aerospacemedia.com/site/a...p.php?Id=071122162918.b525oh0y.xml


As Air France CEO declared some months ago , AF is not in a hurry to place an order for either A350 or 787 .
Referring to this article (Only in French) , AF-KLM will proceed with an RFP , not before the end of 2008.

So now we have an idea , when AF-KLM will place an order.It will be in 2009.

The big surprise is the number : 100 units !

Only A350XWBs ? Only 787s ? Split order ? Hard battle in sight for both A & B.
 
hawkercamm
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:28 pm

We will have to wait for Paris 2009.....  sigh 
 
Cruiser
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:31 pm

This will be an interesting time for us...the 787 will be in service (hopefully!), we will have a much better idea of the 787-10, and the A350 will still be on the drawing board and getting ready to begin taking shape. I would say that AF/KLM will be waiting until about 2018 to start taking delivery of the planes based on the current demand and when slots are available. The A350 line must also be filling up quickly.

James
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KL577
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 7:02 pm



Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
As Air France CEO declared some months ago , AF is not in a hurry to place an order for either A350 or 787 .
Referring to this article (Only in French) , AF-KLM will proceed with an RFP , not before the end of 2008.

So now we have an idea , when AF-KLM will place an order.It will be in 2009.

This is strange. KLM CEO Peter Hartman this morning stated he expects an order for A350 or B787 before mid-2008 (to replace 747-combi's at KLM).

http://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/news/?ID=23363 (in Dutch only)

The RFP for 100 aircraft is also discussed here: KLM Orders Extra Airbus And Boeing (by KL577 Nov 21 2007 in Civil Aviation)
 
LY777
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 7:21 pm

Expect 30 787s+ 70 A350s
just my guess though
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HB-IWC
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 7:22 pm



Quoting Cruiser (Reply 2):
I would say that AF/KLM will be waiting until about 2018 to start taking delivery of the planes based on the current demand and when slots are available.

KLM will be starting to take delivery of these aircraft around 2014, when the airline will start retiring its B747 combi fleet (17 aircraft) as well as its MD11 fleet (10 aircraft). Both fleets have a similar seat count and could be replaced with a single aircraft type. Meanwhile, Air France does at least have the A343 fleet to replace.
 
icna05e
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:10 pm



Quoting LY777 (Reply 4):
Expect 30 787s+ 70 A350s
just my guess though

That would be my guess also... to replace a respectively (more or less) similar number of A340/MD11/747 Combis on one hand and A332 on the other hand, although those might be up for change a bit later. Thus also corresponding with the higher pressure on the 787 line.

Plus having 2 manufacturers is handy on such orders.

We can make out the strategies of the 2 manufacturer there. Each segment would have switched manufacturer!
 
NYC777
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:15 pm

AF-KLM doesn't rule out a split order here so I think it extremely likely that both manufacturers will a piece of the pie. How much each one gets depends on too many factors at this point but I'm willing to bet they'll split the order.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
fruitbat
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:26 pm



This one will go 787/GEnX as the A350 is a RR monopoly; and GE won't get on board the A350 programme for just 100 frames ...
Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals ... except the weasel.
 
kl911
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 8:27 pm

Thay could also split per carrier. KLM getting the smaller 787's and AF the bigger A350's. This however is not logic because AMS is very slot restricted, and CDG has plenty of slots available
 
slz396
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 10:04 pm

Not only does AF talk about ordering 100 A350/787, they will also 'likely' place a second follow up order for A380, according to the CFO of the airline group!

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...OWJONESDJONLINE000518_FORTUNE5.htm

[Edited 2007-11-22 14:34:05]
 
LY777
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 10:06 pm



Quoting KL911 (Reply 9):
KLM getting the smaller 787's and AF the bigger A350's

not necessarily, IMO. KL can use a mix of 787s and A350s. And let's not forget about the 787-10, maybe they will order only 787s if this comes true.
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DAL767400ER
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 10:50 pm

I could see AF/KL getting both, actually. 788s and 789s for thinner routes and longterm A330 replacement, and A350-900/100s for heavier routes and A340 (perhaps also 772) replacement, say, 20 788s, 20 789s, 30 A359s and 30 A3510s, or something like that.
 
jacobin777
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 11:05 pm



Quoting LY777 (Reply 4):
Expect 30 787s+ 70 A350s
just my guess though

..this might be problematic..

--

"(AF) Chief Financial Officer Philippe Calavia said today in an interview. The aircraft must be powered by General Electric Co. engines, not currently available on the A350, to ensure commonality with the existing fleet, he said."*

--

*source: bloomberg.com


Unless GE gets on board the A350 program (no pun intended), its going to be difficult for Airbus to secure this order..of course, there are many other considerations and this can certainly go in Airbus favour.. yes 
"Up the Irons!"
 
Lumberton
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 11:11 pm



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 13):
.this might be problematic..

I would say that for RR, this is definitely problematic!

I would expect GE to come onboard the A350 at some point.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
FCKC
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 11:43 pm

GE in association with Snecma has told they are studying a new engine for the A350XWB , and of course for the 787 as well , if Boeing want to mount it on their plane.

Slz396

If AF buys more A380s , it will be not a second follow up order , but a third , since they have already ordered more recently , even if it was only for compensation for late delivery.

One though emerges in this thread , AF-KLM will order BOTH A350 and 787.
Nice in view of all aviation spotters we are.
 
jacobin777
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Thu Nov 22, 2007 11:59 pm



Quoting Lumberton (Reply 14):
I would expect GE to come onboard the A350 at some point.

...given that the A350 has already sold 400 frames as well as the fact Airbus wants GE to power all variants of the A350 as well as the fact GE doesn't want their "cash cow" GE-90's to lose share quicker than they want.....I'm not so sure how quickly we'll be seeing GE joining on board....

I think this might be plausible however....

Quoting FCKC (Reply 15):
GE in association with Snecma has told they are studying a new engine for the A350XWB

"Up the Irons!"
 
jacobin777
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Fri Nov 23, 2007 4:58 am

-----

""What is true is that Air France-KLM needs to modernise its fleet," he said, adding it applied to a significant part of the airline's long-range fleet.

"So a choice will have to be made between Boeing's 787 and the A350 of Airbus." He said tenders would be launched in 2008 for delivery around 2013-2014."

-----

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4285681a6026.html



I think Boeing might have slots for this time period, but given the recent success of the A350, would Airbus be able to deliver planes in this time period?
"Up the Irons!"
 
FRNT787
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Fri Nov 23, 2007 5:15 am



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 17):
I think Boeing might have slots for this time period, but given the recent success of the A350, would Airbus be able to deliver planes in this time period?

This is a very good point, one that is not brought up alot. Boeing, I believe, will have much more flexibility during this time period (2013-2014) as Airbus will not deliver the first A350-900 until 2014 and surely has filled up slots for the first year of production. Boeing on the other hand, has (I would presume) quite a bit of flexibility for this time period.
 
Glareskin
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Fri Nov 23, 2007 5:17 am



Quoting KL911 (Reply 9):
Thay could also split per carrier. KLM getting the smaller 787's and AF the bigger A350's. This however is not logic because AMS is very slot restricted, and CDG has plenty of slots available

Then, why do you mention this? The A350XWB-1000 would make a good replacement for KL"s 747 fleet and the 787-9 a better choice for the older A340"s in AF fleet.
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
ebj1248650
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Fri Nov 23, 2007 2:51 pm



Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 5):
KLM will be starting to take delivery of these aircraft around 2014, when the airline will start retiring its B747 combi fleet (17 aircraft) as well as its MD11 fleet (10 aircraft). Both fleets have a similar seat count and could be replaced with a single aircraft type. Meanwhile, Air France does at least have the A343 fleet to replace.

17 A350s and 10 787-10s as replacement aircraft?
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
jacobin777
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sat Nov 24, 2007 5:56 pm

..some interesting tidbit of information..

fair use excerpt:

--

"Air France will look at Airbus' A350 XWB and the competing 787 Dreamliner from Boeing, Chief Financial Officer Philippe Calavia said Thursday. The aircraft must be powered by General Electric Co. engines, not now available on the A350, to ensure commonality with the existing fleet, he said."

"The carrier's Amsterdam, Netherlands-based KLM unit will be first to need the new widebody planes, in around 2012 or 2013"

---
*source:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/340806_airfrance23.html
"Up the Irons!"
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sat Nov 24, 2007 6:11 pm



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 21):
"The carrier's Amsterdam, Netherlands-based KLM unit will be first to need the new widebody planes, in around 2012 or 2013"

According to http://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/news/?id=23363 (Dutch only)... The new to be ordered widebodies are needed from 2014 and onwards.

The planes needed for 2012 or 2013 are covered by this week ordered B777 and A330's.

Cheers!  wave 
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
jacobin777
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sat Nov 24, 2007 7:22 pm



Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 22):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 21):
"The carrier's Amsterdam, Netherlands-based KLM unit will be first to need the new widebody planes, in around 2012 or 2013"

According to http://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/news/?id=23363 (Dutch only)... The new to be ordered widebodies are needed from 2014 and onwards.

The planes needed for 2012 or 2013 are covered by this week ordered B777 and A330's.

Cheers!  wave 

...guess there are opposing views on this one.... Wink

...may the best manufacturer win... Smile
"Up the Irons!"
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 11:09 am



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 23):
...guess there are opposing views on this one....

Yeah, apparently. However, it is said that KLM still has some UFO B773's on the orderbook, to be announced
in 2008 for delivery in 2011-2012.

Cheers!  wave 
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
FlySSC
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 12:10 pm

The deal is easy :

No GE engines for the A350 = No A350 for AF.

As simple as that.

If ever the A350 is proposed with a GE engines, AF will decide between the A350 or the B787 but a mixed order is very unlikely.
 
worldrider
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 12:21 pm

the 787-1000 DOES NOT EXIST, AF/kLM will order the A350 unless boeing offers a good piece of pie in 787 and next programms, just business. the same way JL and ANA won't order the A350 or A380 as much as they want them.
 
boeing767-300
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 1:08 pm

This is an interesting topic and in AFs case (& KLM) it may simply boil down to engines. Traditionally AF & KLM have always been predominately GE users.

I don't accept yet that the A350 will be able to replace the 77W for the missions that the 77W is so capable of and that is flying a large payload a long distance efficiently.

The A350-1000 looks great on paper but yet still has to be engineered to match the brochure. Not that long ago EK were proclaiming the virtues of the A346 whilst casting doubts about the 77Ws performance. The A345/6 has suffered the biggest humiliation I can recall in recent commercial aviation and the sales figures reflect that.

This brings us on to the accepted A netter facts/myths that the A333 is lighter and more structually efficient than 772 on shorter missions yet the A346 is heavier than the larger 77W. This in part is due to the A346 being narrower than the 77W and longer!!... just.

Airbus may encounter similar issues given that being a seat narrower there will be difficulty in matching 77W in seat numbers. The narrower 764 did not work against the 332 the narrower A346 did not work against the 77W and the A345 against the 772LR.

I suspect the eventual 777 replacement will be a timing issue and in the interim the 787/77W combo will be successful for many years to come and with AF loving the GE powered 77W the way the do I really see GEnx 788/9s and 77Ws with an eye on 787-10 or Y3.

I cannot see AF with RR powered A350 thats for sure
 
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Stitch
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 3:04 pm

I believe a dual order will be most likely, since KL and AF both have 77Es and 77Ws that Boeing will likely not be in a position to replace before the latter part of the 2010s.

So I expect a mix of 787-8 and 787-9s along with A350-900s and A350-1000s. If the 787-10 is available, I expect they will take some of them, as well, but they will still need some A350-900s and the A350-1000.
 
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Stitch
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 3:05 pm



Quoting Worldrider (Reply 26):
the 787-1000 DOES NOT EXIST...

No, but the 787-10 does.

It just hasn't been made public yet.
 
jacobin777
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 3:10 pm



Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 24):
However, it is said that KLM still has some UFO B773's on the orderbook, to be announced
in 2008 for delivery in 2011-2012.

....that is something which I would have no problems with.. Smile

..apropos, "happy birthday"... Smile

Quoting Worldrider (Reply 26):
DOES NOT EXIST

..please stop yelling...

Quoting Worldrider (Reply 26):
the 787-1000 DOES NOT EXIST

You are correct, the 787-1000 doesn't exist..its called the 787-10. Wink

...Boeing has already stated its a matter of "when" and not "if" and have already stated when they can have it ready by....(2013)....

If anything, the A350 is more of a paper airplane than the B787-10.

Last I recall, there is a B787 being fitted and worked on in a Boeing hangar...show me a non-computer generated real A350....
"Up the Irons!"
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 3:58 pm



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 30):
...that is something which I would have no problems with..

Me neither! The B777-300 in KLM is going te be one of the best looking planes around! For the outside that is, because they are going to put a lot of people in these planes...  Wink

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 30):
..apropos, "happy birthday"...

Thanks!

Cheers!  wave 
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
dutchjet
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 4:08 pm

I am rather surprised at the number....100 new widebody airplanes seems like a very very big commitment from AF/KL, especially considering that AF also has A380s on order, both airlines have additional 773ER commitments, and KL is still growing its A332 fleet.

KL needs an airplane to replace its 744 Combis and MD11s, AF needs an airplane to replace its A343 fleet, Martinair needs to replace its 763ER fleet (which may involve AF's A332s, but thats another topic); but we are no where near 100 airplanes....does KL/AF plan to expand so rapidly? And, its unlikely that AF/KL are already contemplating the replacement of their 772ER fleets at this early date.

I realize that mega-orders are the current rage, with EK, QF, and the others placing orders for 100s of airplanes at a time, but what is the real story with this proposed AF/KL order?
 
Joost
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 4:57 pm

100 seems a lot. Luchtvaartnieuws mentions 50, but without a source.

The big order might well be to take advantage of the current Euro-Dollar exchange rate, and to get good discounts.

Maybe the number is not so strange. Aircraft to replace rather soon are 17 747 combi's, 10 MD-11s and 19 343s. Makes 46 already, without factoring in growth.

Boeing nor Airbus will be able to deliver this number of aircraft in a one year period. Now when they have a delivery schedule of 10 aircraft per year, it will be somewhere around 2020 when all aircraft are delivered.

By 2020, Air France's first 772ERs are already over 20 years old (25 of them delivered 1998-2002) and they will be facing replacement by the time as well. Now include the Martinair fleet, organic growth, AFs 332s and KLs 772s, and 100 aircraft over a timeframe 2015-2025 does not sound strange at all. To replace a large part by one single, versatile aircraft sounds like a good idea.
 
egnr
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:12 pm



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 21):
..some interesting tidbit of information..

fair use excerpt:

--

"Air France will look at Airbus' A350 XWB and the competing 787 Dreamliner from Boeing, Chief Financial Officer Philippe Calavia said Thursday. The aircraft must be powered by General Electric Co. engines, not now available on the A350, to ensure commonality with the existing fleet, he said."

"The carrier's Amsterdam, Netherlands-based KLM unit will be first to need the new widebody planes, in around 2012 or 2013"

---
*source:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/busine....html

Other news sources have a slightly different angle on the story:

"'The question of the engine is important, but it is not the major criterion,' Calavia said. 'Our third core business is maintenance and we mainly maintain GE engines. We have no specific skills at the moment in other engines, but the main question is unit cost per seat."

Source: Hemscott
7late7, A3latey, Sukhoi Superlate... what's going on?
 
columba
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:20 pm



Quoting Fruitbat (Reply 8):
GE won't get on board the A350 programme for just 100 frames ...

They would be stupid not to 100 frames is a huge order to start with and AF will likely not be the only customer.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 16):
given that the A350 has already sold 400 frames as well as the fact Airbus wants GE to power all variants of the A350 as well as the fact GE doesn't want their "cash cow" GE-90's to lose share quicker than they want.....I'm not so sure how quickly we'll be seeing GE joining on board....

They would make a similar mistake as Airbus did with the A330 vs 787. The GE90 could pretty soon look very old and outdated, I can understand that they are trying to milk their cow as long as possible but they should not wait too long.

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 27):
I don't accept yet that the A350 will be able to replace the 77W for the missions that the 77W is so capable of and that is flying a large payload a long distance efficiently.

The A350 will have a newly designed wing, more efficient engines and a fuselage made out of composite materials it will have the latest in technology while the 77W will be 10 years in service when the first A350s rolls out.
Airbus would be the worst manufacturer if they would not come out with better economics than a ten years old aircraft.
Sure the 77W is perfect for its mission and the best aircraft in its class but so was the 707and 747-200 in their days, too.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
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Stitch
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:39 pm



Quoting Columba (Reply 35):
They would be stupid not to 100 frames is a huge order to start with and AF will likely not be the only customer.

They walked away from a 70-frame order from QR.

Reading the tea leaves, GE could need more like 1000 frames each to break even. While I have little doubt the A350 will break 1000 sales, and believe it could likely break 2000 or more, that is a serious "RoI barrier" that GE has to believe they can overcome before they commit to the monies since, in the interim, they will sell a minimum of 200-300 777s with GE90s on them which are guaranteed to generate a positive RoI.

Especially since RR will also need upward of 1000 A350 sales with their engines to break-even, as well.
 
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scbriml
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 6:00 pm



Quoting EGNR (Reply 34):
"'The question of the engine is important, but it is not the major criterion,' Calavia said.

This aligns more closely with my belief - if the A350 is the right plane for AF/KL, the lack of GE on the wing would not stop them from ordering it. Even if GE was an absolute requirement, AF/KL would be unlikely to admit it in public since Boeing would be laughing all the way to the bank if GE wasn't available on the A350.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
They walked away from a 70-frame order from QR.

QR's order was for 80 (EK's for 70). The interesting thing for me is that all the most vociferous customers asking for an engine choice (QR, EK, SQ, ILFC) all still signed without one. For a total of 190 frames.
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Stitch
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 6:20 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 37):
QR's order was for 80 (EK's for 70). The interesting thing for me is that all the most vociferous customers asking for an engine choice (QR, EK, SQ, ILFC) all still signed without one. For a total of 190 frames.

Part of it, no doubt, was because they will receive the first frames produced and need to be sure they have an engine to hang on them.

There was no way we'd see 20 or 30 QR A350s sitting at TLS with no engines because GE decided not to offer an engine and RR had already sold their initial production run to other customers. Non-RR customers choosing the A350 can just purchase "Power by the Hour" from RR and need not worry about supporting the engines themselves.
 
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scbriml
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 7:21 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 38):
There was no way we'd see 20 or 30 QR A350s sitting at TLS with no engines because GE decided not to offer an engine and RR had already sold their initial production run to other customers.

That wouldn't be sensible. But it's interesting to note that some customers still haven't signed engine contracts (most notably, SU).
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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egnr
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 9:20 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 37):
This aligns more closely with my belief - if the A350 is the right plane for AF/KL, the lack of GE on the wing would not stop them from ordering it.

Reading the article I quoted in my earlier post, I wonder if there is another avenue that AF/KLM are looking at in terms of the engines...

Quoting EGNR (Reply 34):
third core business is maintenance and we mainly maintain GE engines. We have no specific skills at the moment in other engines

Maybe they are looking at expanding their engine maintenance portfolio, and one way of doing that is to operate a fleet using different engine types? This would be similar to LH who even go as far as selecting the cfm56 engines for their A320/A319, but select the IAE V2500 for the A321 (and part-owned Germanwings has selcted the IAE V2500 on their new-build A319s).
7late7, A3latey, Sukhoi Superlate... what's going on?
 
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Stitch
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 9:44 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 39):
That wouldn't be sensible. But it's interesting to note that some customers still haven't signed engine contracts (most notably, SU).

The later the delivery, the more flexibility one has to see what, if anything, GE offers. Which is why I expect a formal "go/no-go" by GE no later then late Q1/early Q2 2008.
 
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scbriml
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 9:53 pm



Quoting EGNR (Reply 40):
Maybe they are looking at expanding their engine maintenance portfolio

Pretty much the same thing that LH did.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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astuteman
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 9:55 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
GE could need more like 1000 frames each to break even



Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
Especially since RR will also need upward of 1000 A350 sales with their engines to break-even, as well.

Quite frankly, Stitch, I don't believe that 1000 frames is anywhere near the realistic break-even for the engine supplier on a twin.

How many 773ER's have been sold?
How many A330's have been sold?
With PW?
With GE?
With RR?

If the real break-even is more than 200 - 250 frames, I'll be astonished.
The engine manufacturers make huge amounts of money post sale - over 60% of RR's revenue is now generated from support, as opposed to OE sale, and that number grows every year.

Of course, what that does mean is that it takes a great many years to achieve a positive ROI on an engine programme. It may be another decade before GE make a profit on the GE90-115, but I don't for one second believe that 1000 773ER's need to be sold in order for them to do so.

Just my  twocents 

Regards
 
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Stitch
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 10:01 pm



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 43):
Quite frankly, Stitch, I don't believe that 1000 frames is anywhere near the realistic break-even for the engine supplier on a twin...If the real break-even is more than 200 - 250 frames, I'll be astonished.

I just wish AWS&T said why GE are still not close to breaking even on the GE90 and GEnx even with close to 1000 units sold, each. Even at half-off, both programs have brought in many multiples of their development costs in terms of sales revenues alone, and yet they say GE won't break-even until the mid-2010s on the GE90 and mid-2020s on the GEnx.

Maybe Lightsaber(?) is right and engine deals are structured like Hollywood movie deals to ensure that they always generate a loss, no matter what. Big grin
 
astuteman
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Sun Nov 25, 2007 10:17 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 44):
just wish AWS&T said why GE are still not close to breaking even on the GE90 and GEnx even with close to 1000 units sold, each

FWIW, this part of my previous post would be my explanation for the statements.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 43):
The engine manufacturers make huge amounts of money post sale - over 60% of RR's revenue is now generated from support, as opposed to OE sale, and that number grows every year.

Of course, what that does mean is that it takes a great many years to achieve a positive ROI on an engine programme.

It's more a case (IMHO) of the large amount of time it takes to recover the investment, rather than purely units sold, per se.

From what I've seen, engine OEM's are "real-pricing" the original equipment lower and lower as each year passes, and relying more and more on "power-by-the-hour" type through-life contracts for their ongoing revenue/profit.
Clearly such an approach allows a much more consistent revenue stream for the OEM.

By 2015, I reckon the engines will be give-aways...  Smile

Regards
 
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Stitch
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Mon Nov 26, 2007 1:53 am



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 43):
If the real break-even is more than 200 - 250 frames, I'll be astonished.

Sorry to come back late to this, but the thought only just hit me.

While it may not be 1000, I don't think it can be 200, either.

GE had 266 orders for the GEnx-1BA72 on the original A350. That would have meant they were at least half-way to break even with a GEnx2 if they only needed to sell 400-500 units. Those same companies ordered 136 A350XWBs, so they would have netted six additional engines. Plus with AY alone choosing RR, GE was in a position to likely have scored 400-500 engines orders, easy, especially if they landed EK, which mean they would have broken even in the first year.

I know some like to say GE won't risk the 777 market, but with 428 frames sold, the GE90-11xB would be many multiples past break-even on it's $500 million development cost and would still have hundreds of sales ahead of it to make even more multiples. So GE would have pretty much guaranteed break-even on the A350XWB and continued to make bank on the GE90.

So there would be no economic reason for GE to not join the XWB program. And since they joined the NSWB program before RR, it can't be a case of them not liking Airbus.

So if GE didn't believe that even 250-500 engines as a start were not good enough...
 
jacobin777
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Mon Nov 26, 2007 4:53 am



Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 32):
I am rather surprised at the number....100 new widebody airplanes seems like a very very big commitment from AF/KL, especially considering that AF also has A380s on order, both airlines have additional 773ER commitments, and KL is still growing its A332 fleet.

I think its 50+50

Quoting EGNR (Reply 34):
Other news sources have a slightly different angle on the story:

"'The question of the engine is important, but it is not the major criterion,' Calavia said. 'Our third core business is maintenance and we mainly maintain GE engines. We have no specific skills at the moment in other engines, but the main question is unit cost per seat."

Source: Hemscott

..thanks for the link.. thumbsup 

As I said, it will be very interesting to see where this one goes.... scratchchin 
"Up the Irons!"
 
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PM
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Mon Nov 26, 2007 5:16 am



Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):
So there would be no economic reason for GE to not join the XWB program.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):
So if GE didn't believe that even 250-500 engines as a start were not good enough...

If I understand your argument, you are saying that GE had every reason to anticipate several hundred sales on the earlier A350 but still declined to join the XWB. Thus, you believe, it calls into question GE's confidence about making money on the new programme.

But aren't you missing a rather obvious point? The GEnx originally proposed for the A350 cannot have been markedly different from the versions on the 787 and 747 and would therefore not have been too expensive to develop. But the XWB as it evolved took the platform away from the GEnx. GE choosing (so far) not to come to the XWB party even after bagging a few hundred orders on the original A350 doesn't necessarily point to a change of heart - just a more demanding spec from Airbus.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 43):
Quite frankly, Stitch, I don't believe that 1000 frames is anywhere near the realistic break-even for the engine supplier on a twin.

Nor do I.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 43):
How many A330's have been sold?
With PW?
With GE?
With RR?

Answers:

With PW? About 210
With GE? About 190
With RR? About 350

The figures are approximate because of orders from leasing companies which have not yet been placed or built.

It was being rumoured a few years ago that none of the three would ever make money on the A330 because the market was split three ways. So break-even should be higher on the A330 that on, say, the 777NG.
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: AF-KLM : RFP In 2008 For 100 A350 Or 787

Mon Nov 26, 2007 8:42 am



Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 32):
I am rather surprised at the number....100 new widebody airplanes seems like a very very big commitment from AF/KL,



Quoting Joost (Reply 33):
100 seems a lot. Luchtvaartnieuws mentions 50, but without a source.

It's going to be 50 + 50 options (however, it can vary a little).

Mind you that there are also planes for Martinair (or whatever they are going to do with these operations) going to be included in this order. I don't think these new planes are going directly to Martinair (or what it becomes), but that "older" planes like the A330 will be transferred to that part of the company. These A330's are than to be replaced by the newly ordered planes.

So all in all, 50 might even be a little short on number, so I expect that the numbers will change when actually ordered.

Cheers!  wave 
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