MAH4546
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Rumor: AA To CTG

Mon Nov 26, 2007 11:34 pm

Word at MIA is that American Airlines might be announcing service to Cartagena within two weeks. Spirit Airlines was approved to begin FLL-CTG in February, and AA will likely be retaliating with a daily 737-800 service, MIA-CTG, starting 02Mar08 or 01Apr08. A final decision is pending, but might come this week. AA is furious at Spirit, and will be doing anything they can to prevent NK from being successful in Cartagena - and Colombia in general. It will be a fun to watch.

The USA-CTG market is very small, but growing. Avianca offers a daily MD80 service from Miami that as little as two years ago was only 2x weekly. Flights between the U.S. and Cartagena are Open Skies, and there are no restrictions on frequencies. Still, the potential capacity dump in the Miami-Cartagena market will likely be too much unless the fares are dirt cheap. AA has the resources to take on losses on MIA-CTG if that's what they need to do to compete with NK, though if they were able to run NK out, would they still bother keeping CTG?

And in what might be a sign that Avianca is preparing for this capacity surge, Avianca's subsidary SAM, who operates smaller aircraft, has applied to begin daily MIA-CTG service, potentially replacing Avianca's flight and reducing capacity in the face of NK and AA.
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charlipr
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Mon Nov 26, 2007 11:37 pm

AA as always, using the 800lb gorilla that they are to tackle a competitor. I wish US airlines would stop announcing routes just because there competitors did, knowing that they may lose money on that route.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Mon Nov 26, 2007 11:41 pm



Quoting Charlipr (Reply 1):
AA as always, using the 800lb gorilla that they are to tackle a competitor. I wish US airlines would stop announcing routes just because there competitors did, knowing that they may lose money on that route.

It's the beauty of a free market.

Yes, it might suck for Spirit, but that's how the airline world works. If AA wants to take on losses to not allow Spirit to effectively compete, then so be it.

At the same time though, I'm not really sure AA will be able to run Spirit out of the market. They have been pretty successful in the Caribbean and Latin America, the weak markets being MGA/SAP/GUA.

In this situation, I think the consumers will win, because I predict AA and NK both stay in CTG, if AA goes ahead with MIA-CTG.
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luv2fly
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Mon Nov 26, 2007 11:44 pm



Quoting Charlipr (Reply 1):
AA as always, using the 800lb gorilla that they are to tackle a competitor. I wish US airlines would stop announcing routes just because there competitors did, knowing that they may lose money on that route.

And airlines wonder why they continue to lose precious money day after day after day. Though as far as service has declined not sure what if any difference people will find between the two carriers.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Mon Nov 26, 2007 11:48 pm

Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 3):
Though as far as service has declined not sure what if any difference people will find between the two carriers.

Well, for one thing, AA doesn't charge for drinks and water. And, secondly, all American Airlines to South America (as well as Bridgetown and Port of Spain, which are considered South American routes by AA), have full meal service in every cabin. South Americans expect meal service, and AA has not cut meal service to the region, even on a 2.5hr flight to Maracaibo.

[Edited 2007-11-26 15:49:27]
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luv2fly
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Mon Nov 26, 2007 11:50 pm



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4):


Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 3):
Though as far as service has declined not sure what if any difference people will find between the two carriers.


Well, for one thing, AA doesn't charge for drinks and water. And, secondly, all American Airlines to South America (as well as Bridgetown and Port of Spain, which are considered South American routes by AA), have full meal service in every cabin.

Well the consumer will decide if the price difference is worth it. Who knows after paying the extras there is a good chance you will still be ahead and not have to deal with the mess that is MIA International.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Mon Nov 26, 2007 11:52 pm

Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 5):
not have to deal with the mess that is MIA International.

At least you can check-in to your flight at MIA without standing in a two-hour line stretching outside of FLL's T4.

http://www.airportbusiness.com/web/o...F-TRAVELERS-AND-THEIR-BAGS/1$13143

http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-53422.html

http://www.redorbit.com/news/busines...s_through_growing_pains/index.html
[Edited 2007-11-26 15:53:26]

[Edited 2007-11-26 15:55:04]
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luv2fly
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Mon Nov 26, 2007 11:56 pm



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 6):
Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 5):
not have to deal with the mess that is MIA International.

At least you can check-in to your flight at MIA without standing in a two-hour line stretching outside of FLL's T4.

Well I would rather be outside then under the low ceilings and lovely damp moldy carpet smell that is MIA International, though to each there own I guess.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
gte439u
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 12:10 am



Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 7):
Well I would rather be outside then under the low ceilings and lovely damp moldy carpet smell that is MIA International, though to each there own I guess.

Have you ever stood outside at FLL for two hours? It is practically unbearable for six months of the year, especially when carrying luggage.

While MIA may not be a lovely airport, it is relatively efficient and has become the United States' natural gateway to the rest of the Americas.
 
luv2fly
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 12:16 am



Quoting Gte439u (Reply 8):
Have you ever stood outside at FLL for two hours? It is practically unbearable for six months of the year, especially when carrying luggage.

While MIA may not be a lovely airport, it is relatively efficient and has become the United States' natural gateway to the rest of the Americas.

I travel through both often, in fact more often then I would like. Also myself I have never experienced a long wait of any kind at FLL.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 12:18 am

Quoting Gte439u (Reply 8):
Have you ever stood outside at FLL for two hours? It is practically unbearable for six months of the year, especially when carrying luggage.

And NK/FLL have done little to relieve the problem so far. NK continues to grow at rates far exceeding their gatespace. Meanwhile, the INS there is heavily understaffed and during peak periods it can take 1-1.5 hours for non-residents to get through customs. As bad the horror stories are at MIA, it will rarely ever take you more than thirty minutes to clear, especially now with the new South Terminal INS open. And the new North Terminal INS at MIA will be nearly 120,000 square feet. That is roughly the size of your average Target store (or two football fields), and capable of handling well over 4,000 passengers per hour.

FLL needed to expand their INS facilities yesterday.

Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 9):
I travel through both often, in fact more often then I would like. Also myself I have never experienced a long wait of any kind at FLL.

It is only a problem at Terminal 4.

[Edited 2007-11-26 16:19:40]
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na747
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 12:23 am



Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
AA has the resources to take on losses on MIA-CTG if that's what they need to do to compete with NK, though if they were able to run NK out, would they still bother keeping CTG?

If they do have the resources, which I think they do, why didn't they start CTG long ago when AV has been the only one on the route?
Paraphrasing you, MAH, then what? Would CTG stay in the system or would it be dropped due to "unprofitability"? You know how it goes.
I'd love to see CTG in AA's system.
Another question: does BAQ have a large enough catchment area to attract CTG paxs?
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 12:32 am



Quoting NA747 (Reply 11):
If they do have the resources, which I think they do, why didn't they start CTG long ago when AV has been the only one on the route?
Paraphrasing you, MAH, then what? Would CTG stay in the system or would it be dropped due to "unprofitability"? You know how it goes.

If AA were to challenge Spirit at CTG, and NK were to drop it, it is difficult to say what would happen. Hypothetically, I could imagine it possible that AA would remain. Spirit leaving would mean it's just American and Avianca. Neither are low-fare airlines. Fares would go up, and with a low-fare carrier out of the game, then AA might be able to charge the right fares to make the flight profitable.

Quoting NA747 (Reply 11):
Another question: does BAQ have a large enough catchment area to attract CTG paxs?

The airports are very close (less than 60 miles apart) by air, but I have no idea how the road network between the two cities is.
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a300aa
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 1:04 am



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 12):
The airports are very close (less than 60 miles apart) by air, but I have no idea how the road network between the two cities is.

The road its not bad,

But tourists fly to CTG , not to BAQ.

I just want to see the loads on FEB, March, April, September , October and November the next year with 3 flights to BOG, 2 to MDE, 1 to CLO, 1 to BAQ and probably CTG.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 1:06 am



Quoting A300AA (Reply 13):

I just want to see the loads on FEB, March, April, September , October and November the next year with 3 flights to BOG, 2 to MDE, 1 to CLO, 1 to BAQ and probably CTG.

AA's Colombia flights have very low break-even load factors, thanks to high fares and cargo yields. Though increased competition might change that.
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AJMIA
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 2:26 am



Quoting Charlipr (Reply 1):
AA as always, using the 800lb gorilla that they are to tackle a competitor. I wish US airlines would stop announcing routes just because there competitors did, knowing that they may lose money on that route.

I actually think AA has been quite restrained responding to NK adding service in a lot of AA's bread and butter markets with unrealistically low fares. They finally drew a line in the sand with Colombia, PAP and SJO.

Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 7):
Well I would rather be outside then under the low ceilings and lovely damp moldy carpet smell that is MIA International, though to each there own I guess.

OK, I admit MIA is not a garden spot, but damp moldy carpet smell.... I have never experienced that and I have worked there since 1995.

AJMIA
Lady it's a jet... not a kite.
 
RCS763AV
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 2:28 am



Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
AA has the resources to take on losses on MIA-CTG if that's what they need to do to compete with NK, though if they were able to run NK out, would they still bother keeping CTG?

CTG is not big enough to support three flights. One of the airlines will drop out, and im guessing it will be NK.

AA has got the resources to compete with NK.

AV also has resources, and has the possibility of combining the flight to MIA with another city in Colombia.

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
And in what might be a sign that Avianca is preparing for this capacity surge, Avianca's subsidary SAM, who operates smaller aircraft, has applied to begin daily MIA-CTG service, potentially replacing Avianca's flight and reducing capacity in the face of NK and AA.

Indeed.

Quoting NA747 (Reply 11):
Another question: does BAQ have a large enough catchment area to attract CTG paxs

BAQ does attract pax from CTG. By road it usually takes an hour between both cities.
 
Summa767
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 8:35 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):
In this situation, I think the consumers will win, because I predict AA and NK both stay in CTG, if AA goes ahead with MIA-CTG.

Good news for consumers, and good news for Cartagena and Colombian tourism.
This city can attract tourist looking for a beach holiday in the Bocagrande district as well as the high yielding ones staying in the colonial gem that is the old city, with its boutique hotels and trendy restaurants.
What I would like to see is demand responding to this increased offer of seats that will become available very soon.

[Edited 2007-11-27 01:14:49]
 
bogota
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 9:28 pm



Quoting NA747 (Reply 11):
Another question: does BAQ have a large enough catchment area to attract CTG paxs?

BAQ definitely catches a lot of CTG pax, I am very much involved with events in Cartagena and now the "shuttle" between Cartagena and BAQ is very much on the program list as of the end of the year thanks to AA, but before the JFK-BAQ also has brought plenty of pax on their way to Cartagena. The new road is excellent and is mostly used by private cars or buses as intercity buses use the old road which is easier for them into the bus terminals.

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
And in what might be a sign that Avianca is preparing for this capacity surge, Avianca's subsidary SAM, who operates smaller aircraft, has applied to begin daily MIA-CTG service, potentially replacing Avianca's flight and reducing capacity in the face of NK and AA.

I thought I had read that actually AV was separating their daily MIA-CTG-PEI into a MIA-CTG and MIA-PEI? Or did I dream that bit.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 9:33 pm



Quoting Bogota (Reply 18):

I thought I had read that actually AV was separating their daily MIA-CTG-PEI into a MIA-CTG and MIA-PEI? Or did I dream that bit.

They aren't, but with the A319, they will finally have the right-size plane to operate MIA-PEI non-stop if they chose. The MD83s, IIRC, aren't capable of flying the route non-stop given PEI's high location.
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bogota
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 10:16 pm



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 19):
They aren't, but with the A319, they will finally have the right-size plane to operate MIA-PEI non-stop if they chose. The MD83s, IIRC, aren't capable of flying the route non-stop given PEI's high location.

Thanks for the info, and I would hardly consider PEI a high airport, it is interesting to see it like one, from what altitude would an airport be considered high?
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 10:22 pm



Quoting Bogota (Reply 20):
Thanks for the info, and I would hardly consider PEI a high airport, it is interesting to see it like one, from what altitude would an airport be considered high?

At nearly 4,200 feet high, combined with a 6,600 foot runway, I'm pretty sure it's high enough that an MD83 can't make it non-stop to Miami.
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777jaah
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Tue Nov 27, 2007 11:17 pm



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 19):
aren't capable of flying the route non-stop given PEI's high location.

By charts, PEI fits into the MD83s performance capabilities, but ask any AV pilot on how fun is to land there with a wet runway.....I think that could be a reason for AV not having the flight.

Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 16):


AA has got the resources to compete with NK.

AV also has resources, and has the possibility of combining the flight to MIA with another city in Colombia.

Somehow I think NK will use CTG more as a marketing strategy than a real winner route, and put some pressure con the DOT for the BOG approval.


JAAH
Next flights: AV BOG-ADZ-BOG, AV-UA BOG-IAD-ORD-IAD-BOG, BOG-FLL-BOG, LA BOG-MIA-BOG J
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:03 pm

Just some speculation on my part, but given DOT's decision to review seven of AA's USA-Colombia frequencies and allow other airlines to make a case for them, I think AA might delay any public announcement on CTG, because airlines could use such a thing against AA during DOT carrier selection.
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Summa767
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Wed Nov 28, 2007 10:48 pm

Also, I noticed that in DOT's document stating the guidelines for the competition for the 21 newly available frequencies and the invitation for a case for other airlines to propose how they would use other 7 claimed by AA, there is a request for airlines to state what flights they have operated to Colombia in the last year, if any.

The first thought that came to my mind was that DOT could use that to favour airlines other than AA, as it will show that American left 14 frequencies vacant most of the time, the exception being a few weeks in December/January and July and August. So even though AA now intends to use up their full allocation all year round from Dec 13th, DOT might well give importance to precedent.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Wed Nov 28, 2007 10:54 pm



Quoting Summa767 (Reply 24):

The first thought that came to my mind was that DOT could use that to favour airlines other than AA, as it will show that American left 14 frequencies vacant most of the time, the exception being a few weeks in December/January and July and August. So even though AA now intends to use up their full allocation all year round from Dec 13th, DOT might well give importance to precedent.

It might, but it might not. The reason it might not is because DOT will now have a "no dormancy" policy. So regardless of what airlines did in the past, airlines won't be able to hold frequencies dormant in the future for more than a reasonable period (typically 90 days).

I'm curious to see what happens with Continental Airlines, though. They have been holding dormant Houston-Cali frequencies for about two-three years now. Sometimes IAH-CLO only operates 1x weekly. AA will definitely bring that up. It is extremely unfair that AA, which shows solid use for the frequencies effective 13Dec07, might see the frequencies stripped, while CO can sit on unused frequencies for most of the year.
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SJOtoLIR
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Thu Nov 29, 2007 4:34 am



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 2):
At the same time though, I'm not really sure AA will be able to run Spirit out of the market. They have been pretty successful in the Caribbean and Latin America, the weak markets being MGA/SAP/GUA.

NK will drop LAX-GUA and downgrade FLL-GUA 3x weekly.
Rumor has it that the possibility for AA FLL-MGA in order to serve the VFR traffic between Nicaragua and South Florida. However, a weak market there may imply solely the strategy concerning to match fares for AA MIA-MGA, as they currently did.




.

Quoting Bogota (Reply 18):
I thought I had read that actually AV was separating their daily MIA-CTG-PEI into a MIA-CTG and MIA-PEI?

AV currently deploys PEI-CTG-MIA 5x weekly and CTG-MIA 2x weekly, all the way with MD-83.
It really shows the thin demand between CTG-MIA at this time.

Regards.
"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Thu Nov 29, 2007 4:58 am

Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 26):

AV currently deploys PEI-CTG-MIA 5x weekly and CTG-MIA 2x weekly, all the way with MD-83.
It really shows the thin demand between CTG-MIA at this time.

Not really. It was only a few years ago that they flew MIA-CTG only 2x weekly, and now it is daily. Demand is thin, but has been growing a lot in the past three years.

Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 26):
Rumor has it that the possibility for AA FLL-MGA in order to serve the VFR traffic between Nicaragua and South Florida. However, a weak market there may imply solely the strategy concerning to match fares for AA MIA-MGA, as they currently did.

"Phase II" of "attack NK at FLL" supposedly includes launching daily FLL-MGA, daily FLL-KIN, and upgauging FLL-SDQ to an A300. Basiclly a capacity dump in the market to hurt NK. Managua is Miami's second largest O&D market to Central America (after SJO) and Kingston is Miami's fourth largest O&D market to the Caribbean (after NAS, SDQ, and PAP - all three of which AA does/will fly from FLL).

[Edited 2007-11-28 21:00:08]
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clo1973
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Thu Nov 29, 2007 11:12 pm



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 25):
Sometimes IAH-clo only operates 1x weekly

CLO - IAH operates daily in summer, 3x on Fall and 4x the rest of the year (Winter and Spring)
 
2travel2know
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Fri Nov 30, 2007 1:16 am



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27):
"Phase II" of "attack NK at FLL" supposedly includes launching daily FLL-MGA, daily FLL-KIN, and upgauging FLL-SDQ to an A300. Basiclly a capacity dump in the market to hurt NK. Managua is Miami's second largest O&D market to Central America (after SJO) and Kingston is Miami's fourth largest O&D market to the Caribbean (after NAS, SDQ, and PAP - all three of which AA does/will fly from FLL).

If AA is to fly FLL-PTY too, no matter if just a couple of days per week, I could dislike AA just a tiny little bit less.. like many Latiamericans who nickname AA Antipatican.  biting 

But there's a thing which doesn't make sense with AA international operations out of FLL.. AA and NK use the same overcrowded and congested F.I.S., yet AA adds more internatioal service.
I don't work for COPA Airlines!
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Fri Nov 30, 2007 1:55 am

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 29):
AA and NK use the same overcrowded and congested F.I.S., yet AA adds more internatioal service.

I don't think AA cares. It just adds to the congestion for NK passengers. Though the flights depart from T3 and AA passengers don't have to line-up for 2.5 hours in the heat in lines that stretch farther than the terminal building itself, like NK customers.

Quoting Clo1973 (Reply 28):
CLO - IAH operates daily in summer, 3x on Fall and 4x the rest of the year (Winter and Spring)

I stand corrected. Nonetheless, considering how CO criticized AA's "seasonal" use of Colombia frequencies, CO should be forced to use them year-round or give them up.

[Edited 2007-11-29 17:56:08]
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Summa767
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Fri Nov 30, 2007 8:08 am



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 30):
considering how CO criticized AA's "seasonal" use of Colombia frequencies, CO should be forced to use them year-round or give them up.

I agree. I was really hoping that CO would use the spare freqs on MDE, given that in their original application they left that possibility open. Perhaps now that the rules on freqs to Colombia will be hardened, CO will commit itself to using their full allocation all year round. However, if they were to apply for new routes or flights, as they suggested they would, I don't imagine they will have much success.
 
davescj
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Fri Nov 30, 2007 10:48 am



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4):
And, secondly, all American Airlines to South America (as well as Bridgetown and Port of Spain, which are considered South American routes by AA), have full meal service in every cabin.

I have seen bev service only on flight from Dallas to Santiago in main cabin.

Dave
Can I have a mojito on this flight?
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Fri Nov 30, 2007 11:03 am

Quoting Davescj (Reply 32):
I have seen bev service only on flight from Dallas to Santiago in main cabin.

No. That flight has hot dinner and hot breakfast, in both cabins, no exceptions, unless the catering truck crashed on the way to the plane, there was a strike, or something extremely abnormal.

[Edited 2007-11-30 03:05:25]
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bogota
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Fri Nov 30, 2007 2:05 pm



Quoting Davescj (Reply 32):
I have seen bev service only on flight from Dallas to Santiago in main cabin.

I highly doubt it, we are talking about a 9-10 hour flight. That simply would not happen.
 
777jaah
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Fri Nov 30, 2007 2:15 pm



Quoting Davescj (Reply 32):
have seen bev service only on flight from Dallas to Santiago in main cabin

Probably you fell sleep during lucn time  wink 

In all my flights from/to MIA and BOG/CLO, I've received a hot meal.


JAAH
Next flights: AV BOG-ADZ-BOG, AV-UA BOG-IAD-ORD-IAD-BOG, BOG-FLL-BOG, LA BOG-MIA-BOG J
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Fri Nov 30, 2007 10:50 pm



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 33):
No. That flight has hot dinner and hot breakfast, in both cabins, no exceptions,

I didn't know that AA does 2 hot meals to deep south America... IIRC, UA and DL both only do 1 (breakfast is cold).
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Fri Nov 30, 2007 11:22 pm



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 36):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 33):
No. That flight has hot dinner and hot breakfast, in both cabins, no exceptions,

I didn't know that AA does 2 hot meals to deep south America... IIRC, UA and DL both only do 1 (breakfast is cold).

It's been three years since I've flown AA to deep South America, so I might be incorrect to say that breakfast was hot, I'm not 100% positive. I want to say it is a hot breakfast on flights to South America which arrive in regular morning hours, but a cold, light breakfast on flights form South America, which typically arrive between 4 and 5AM, though I'm not positive.
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Cubsrule
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RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Fri Nov 30, 2007 11:25 pm



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 37):
I want to say it is a hot breakfast on flights to South America which arrive in regular morning hours, but a cold, light breakfast on flights form South America, which typically arrive between 4 and 5AM, though I'm not positive.

That would actually make some sense. When you fly to EZE or SCL in the northern hemisphere winter, it's well into the morning when you arrive (AA 943, for instance, arrives in EZE at 1000), and a hot meal would be nice. When arriving at 5 or 6 in the morning, it's not so important.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
SJOtoLIR
Posts: 2966
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:41 pm

RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Sat Dec 01, 2007 9:57 pm



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27):
It was only a few years ago that they flew MIA-CTG only 2x weekly, and now it is daily. Demand is thin, but has been growing a lot in the past three years.

Current scenario CTG-MIA:
AV PEI-CTG-MIA 5x weekly with MD-83.
AV CTG-MIA twice weekly with MD-83.

Possible model CTG-South Florida in short-term:
AV/MM: CTG-MIA 7x weekly.
NK: CTG-FLL 7x weekly.
AA: CTG-MIA 7x weekly.
AIRES: CTG-FLL 7x weekly [Theoretically]

All these carriers will be struggling to pick up passengers, based on the current conditions for the air services between Cartagena de Indias - Miami.

Regards.
"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
Posts: 25991
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Sat Dec 01, 2007 9:58 pm



Quoting SJOtoLIR (Reply 39):
All these carriers will be struggling to pick up passengers, based on the current conditions for the air services between Cartagena de Indias - Miami.

They will not struggle if the fares are low. What they will struggle with is making the routes profitable, not filling the planes.
a.
 
jetdeltamsy
Posts: 2688
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2000 11:51 am

RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Sat Dec 01, 2007 10:05 pm



Quoting Charlipr (Reply 1):
AA as always, using the 800lb gorilla that they are to tackle a competitor. I wish US airlines would stop announcing routes just because there competitors did,

That's just the way the world works...not just in the US.

All large, successful airlines fiercly protect their market share.

AA is no different.
Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
 
a300aa
Posts: 298
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:12 am

RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Sat Dec 01, 2007 10:35 pm

Seeing current conditions in this market, Im sure, AA will not start a CTG MIA on a near future.

Just see the loads on BAQ MIA, for the end of Jan, or Feb., and adding another flight ? Impossible.
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
Posts: 25991
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Sat Dec 01, 2007 10:40 pm



Quoting A300AA (Reply 42):
Seeing current conditions in this market, Im sure, AA will not start a CTG MIA on a near future.

Just see the loads on BAQ MIA, for the end of Jan, or Feb., and adding another flight ? Impossible.

It has nothing to do with loads in other markets. It is protecting marketshare and running Spirit out of the market. AA couldn't care less if MIA-CTG loses money. If they think it can hurt Spirit, who can be a threat to their Colombian operations, they will start it.

That being said, I doubt that we will hear anything on MIA/CTG until after the status of AA's seven "up for grabs" frequencies is decided, because airlines will use it against them. Though I'm pretty confident AA will be in CTG next year to fight off Spirit. I think it's a given.
a.
 
Summa767
Posts: 1847
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 1:30 am

RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Sat Dec 01, 2007 11:08 pm



Quoting A300AA (Reply 42):

Just see the loads on BAQ MIA, for the end of Jan, or Feb., and adding another flight ? Impossible.

Is this the AV flights for Jan and Feb this year, or bookings so far for the new AA flight?
How bad are they, in any case?
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
Posts: 25991
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Sat Dec 01, 2007 11:18 pm

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 44):
How bad are they, in any case?

They aren't. February is a ways off and we can't make any judgments on loads yet. In fact, many dates in February the BAQ flights are doing better than CLO.

Many BAQ flights during December are pretty much sold out or near capacity, and early yields are excellent, better than Cali.

[Edited 2007-12-01 15:19:50]
a.
 
Summa767
Posts: 1847
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 1:30 am

RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Sat Dec 01, 2007 11:31 pm



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 45):
Many BAQ flights during December are pretty much sold out or near capacity, and early yields are excellent, better than Cali.

I had not looked in BAQ, but had noticed that pasenger figures for CLO to and from the US had been stagnant or decreasing for the last few months. In a sharp contrast to flights from there to MAD, that features, probably the highest LF, for any route out of Colombia, and so doubling in freqs from this months.

Good for AA on its imminent return to BAQ then, and a good sign for CTG.
 
clo1973
Posts: 152
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 1:29 pm

RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Mon Dec 03, 2007 4:39 pm



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 45):
They aren't. February is a ways off and we can't make any judgments on loads yet. In fact, many dates in February the BAQ flights are doing better than CLO.

I do not know where did you get this information from.

Here is the information (Aerocivil data) with traffic figures of direct / nonstop flights from those Colombian cities to USA. As you can see traffic from CLO to USA more than doubles BAQ - USA - BAQ traffic




Code 2004 2005 2006 % 06 vs 04

CLO 199,156 219,720 252,515 27%
MED 200,764 237,334 252,513 26%
BAQ 97,714 93,994 103,267 6%

I know the chart was not posted properly, but what it says is that CLO-USA-CLO traffic was 252.000 pax in 2006 with a 27% growth vs 2004 figure, whereas BAQ traffic was 103.000 with a 6% growth vs 2004.

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 46):
I had not looked in BAQ, but had noticed that pasenger figures for CLO to and from the US had been stagnant or decreasing for the last few months

Again, I do not know where did you get this information from. The chart shows that Cali - USA - Cali traffic grew 27% between 2006 and 2004!. I still do not have consolidated information for 2007, but international traffic out of CLO has grown 13% compared to 2006 (Year to date September)......so one can infer that the upward trend continues....
 
a300aa
Posts: 298
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:12 am

RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Mon Dec 03, 2007 4:52 pm



Quoting Clo1973 (Reply 47):
I do not know where did you get this information from.

I dont know either. The only week with acceptable loads is the week of the Carnaval de BAQ, but the,rest...looks terrible.

And today Aerocivil granted Avianca, Aerorepublica and Aires the frequencies they were asking for.

http://www.larepublica.com.co/grandesen.php


Nice to see Colombian Airlines growing, and the others loosing market.

Rgds.
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
Posts: 25991
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Rumor: AA To CTG

Mon Dec 03, 2007 5:08 pm

Quoting Clo1973 (Reply 47):
I do not know where did you get this information from.

Here is the information (Aerocivil data) with traffic figures of direct / nonstop flights from those Colombian cities to USA. As you can see traffic from CLO to USA more than doubles BAQ - USA - BAQ traffic

I was not looking at total traffic. I was looking at AA loads only, and looking in February, BAQ loads are better than CLO. Simple fact, whether you like it or not.

Quoting A300AA (Reply 48):

I dont know either. The only week with acceptable loads is the week of the Carnaval de BAQ, but the,rest...looks terrible.

You've clearly had some sort of agenda against AA at BAQ from the start with your persistent negative comments about the service. It is true that BAQ's loads in January and February are definitely not stellar, but when you compare them to loads on CLO on similar days, or even other flights to the region, they aren't bad. You can't be making assumptions about loads in February this far in advance.

[Edited 2007-12-03 09:22:06]
a.

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