Flying-Tiger
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Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 8:57 am



Quote:
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Ryanair Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest discount carrier, said it will react to any slump in demand for air travel by purchasing new planes.

''We're looking at aircraft numbers beyond 2012,'' Ryanair Chief Executive Officer Michael O'Leary said in an interview at the company's headquarters in Dublin yesterday. A slowdown is likely ''in the next year or two,'' he said.



Quote:
''These sort of fundamental fleet decisions are very important for the next decade's growth,'' said Stephen Furlong, an analyst at Davy Stockbrokers in Dublin who has Ryanair on his ''focus'' list. An aircraft order would bridge the gap until Chicago-based Boeing introduces a third generation of the short- haul 737 series, Furlong said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...1085&sid=a2.ujS2qhvKg&refer=europe

No word about how big this 737 order will be - but IMO we will see another 100+ frames order.
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PM
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:08 am



Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
a third generation of the short- haul 737 series

"third generation of the 737"?  Confused

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
''We're looking at aircraft numbers beyond 2012''

Wow! That would be, like, four times more than AA have!  Wow!  Wink
 
brightcedars
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:10 am



Quoting PM (Reply 1):
"third generation of the 737"

IMHO:

Gen 1: B737-100 & 200
Gen 2: B737-300, 400 & 500
Gen 3: B737-600, 700, 700ER, 800, 900 & 900ER

I don't expect the next thing to be called a 737.
 
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:13 am



Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 2):
I don't expect the next thing to be called a 737.

Nor do I. Hence my surprise.

Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 2):
IMHO:

Nope. That isn't at all the meaning implied in the quote. In fact the 737-100 to 500 were all considered "first generation".
 
Glareskin
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:20 am



Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
No word about how big this 737 order will be - but IMO we will see another 100+ frames order.

Aren't they also planning transcon flights as a consequence of the open skies agreement? I wouldn't rule out some 787 or A350XWB either.
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
chiad
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:21 am

However ... if Boeing get this order firm during 2007 they have a fair shot of winning the order race.
 
N1120A
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:25 am



Quoting PM (Reply 3):
In fact the 737-100 to 500 were all considered "first generation".

Not true. The 737-100 and -200 are considered the first generation, the -300 through -500 second and -600 through -900ER the third.

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 4):

Aren't they also planning transcon flights as a consequence of the open skies agreement?

I think you mean intercon
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:32 am



Quoting N1120A (Reply 6):
Not true. The 737-100 and -200 are considered the first generation, the -300 through -500 second and -600 through -900ER the third.

Well, it's semantics, really. Reference to 'generations' only began with the introduction of the -600/-700/-800 which became "NG" for New Generation.

Yes, the -300/-400/-500 were substantial developments of the -100/-200 but I don't believe I've ever heard reference to 1st, 2nd or 3rd generation families of 737s. Rather, it's usual to refer to "classics" (everything up to and including the -500) and then the 737NG (the -600 and everything thereafter). It was in that sense that I was suggesting that there are two 'generations' rather than three.

What is certainly true - and that's why I brought it up - is that Mr. Furlong is talking about a third generation of 737s which is yet to happen.
 
N1120A
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:37 am



Quoting PM (Reply 7):
Rather, it's usual to refer to "classics" (everything up to and including the -500) and then the 737NG (the -600 and everything thereafter).

Actually, the Classics are only the -300 through -500.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
chiad
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:40 am

If it's the replacement of the B737 series called the Y1 they refer to, shouldn't Airbus also be considered in this contest?
 
scouseflyer
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:49 am



Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
''We're looking at aircraft numbers beyond 2012,'' Ryanair Chief Executive Officer Michael O'Leary said in an interview at the company's headquarters in Dublin yesterday. A slowdown is likely ''in the next year or two,'' he said.

Am I the only one who thinks that whilst the analyst is talking about an order M O L might actually be talking about dumping or freezing capacity?
 
n1786b
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:58 am



Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 10):
Am I the only one who thinks that whilst the analyst is talking about an order M O L might actually be talking about dumping or freezing capacity?

Yep it is only you.... Big grin


Ryanair begins talks on $4bn deal to add 70 planes to fleet
By Laura Noonan
Wednesday November 07 2007

RYANAIR has begun early negotiations on adding 70 planes to its fleet between 2010 and 2012, in a deal that could be worth up to $4bn....Speaking earlier this week, Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary confirmed that discussions on those options (from an order in 2005) have begun recently.

"Boeing are very keen at the moment now to firm up an order book into and beyond 2012," Mr O'Leary said.

"We are talking to them about our options in '10, '11 and they are kind of anxious that we would look at taking more aircraft beyond 2012....

"The first round of discussion, so, we're making unreasonable demands and Boeing are giving us some reasonable rejections," Mr O'Leary said. "But the process has started, which I think is better than not talking at all."

http://www.independent.ie/business/i...dd-70-planes-to-fleet-1213441.html


-n1786b
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 11:27 am



Quoting N1786b (Reply 11):
"The first round of discussion, so, we're making unreasonable demands and Boeing are giving us some reasonable rejections," Mr O'Leary said. "But the process has started, which I think is better than not talking at all."

That's a good line...
What the...?
 
chiad
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 11:51 am

Maybe it's just me, but whenever I hear of another B737 or A320 mega order I kind of shrug my shoulders.
With order-books for each type around 2000+ frames, then another 70, from the likes of Ryanair or Air Asia is, just ..... well ... another reason we wont see the Y1 or the A320NG for at least another decade or more.
Good for Boeing and Airbus.
Bad for us ... errr .. me!
 
jwmd123
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 12:06 pm

Whilst FR will probably get a good deal on any 'new' order, they will never have a deal as good as they good last time.

MO'L has constantly stated he believes costs are too high at the moment.

In fairness, with a balance sheet like FR has, they can wait around a couple of years and swoop in if a slowdown does occur.
 
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 1:11 pm



Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 12):
Quoting N1786b (Reply 11):
"The first round of discussion, so, we're making unreasonable demands and Boeing are giving us some reasonable rejections," Mr O'Leary said. "But the process has started, which I think is better than not talking at all."

That's a good line...

Yes, it's entertaining to watch "the rapist" at work!  Smile

[For those who don't know, when asked about his last 737 deal, O'Leary said he "raped" Boeing...]
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DAYflyer
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 1:26 pm



Quoting PM (Reply 1):
"third generation of the 737"?



Quoting Glareskin (Reply 4):
Aren't they also planning transcon flights as a consequence of the open skies agreement? I wouldn't rule out some 787 or A350XWB either.

It will be interesting to see how much flight deck commonality Boeing will be able to incorporate into the next 737, since that may influence 787/737NG orders from carriers like Ryanair who are looking to cross the pond.
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sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 2:25 pm



Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 16):
It will be interesting to see how much flight deck commonality Boeing will be able to incorporate into the next 737, since that may influence 787/737NG orders from carriers like Ryanair who are looking to cross the pond.

Should be as much commonality as possible. I think Boeing should find a way to make the 737RS cockpit as advanced or more advanced than the current 787. Maybe offer standard heads up displays on the 737RS like the 787 and even bigger glass screen displays.

How long will it be before Ryanair orders 100 789s and -10s ?

Where does Ryanair train all their 737 pilots? Do they have their own facility and simulator? It must be a huge place. They could probably open one of Europe's largest pilot training centers.
 
travellin'man
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 2:36 pm

I was once told that the Irish flights don't have customs when they come to the US by a special bilateral arangement. I don't know if that's true, but if it is, it definitely opens up more of a possibility for flying across the pond, given that these carriers are all extra keen on quick turnarounds (the planes get a lookover from customs as well, no?)
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MarBergi
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 2:39 pm



Quoting Travellin'man (Reply 18):
I was once told that the Irish flights don't have customs when they come to the US by a special bilateral arangement.

Customs I'm not sure of, but immigration is taken care of in Ireland as both Dublin and Shannon have pre-clearance. Saves having to cue at your destination after a seven or eight hour filght.
 
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PA110
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 2:41 pm

MOL is probably asking for cargo versions, and plans to load passengers on pallets or install wood benches for his "self loading cargo" clientele.  Wink
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EI564
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 3:25 pm



Quoting MarBergi (Reply 19):
Customs I'm not sure of, but immigration is taken care of in Ireland as both Dublin and Shannon have pre-clearance. Saves having to cue at your destination after a seven or eight hour filght.

At the moment both airports only have us immigration but it is planned that both Shannon and Dublin will have full customs and immigration in the next 2 to 3 years.
 
SkyTeamTriStar
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 3:31 pm



Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 2):
I don't expect the next thing to be called a 737.

Dont mess around with a name change when its the best selling jetliner in history.
Just like Ford Motor Co. brought back their best selling car, the Taurus.
 
propilotjw
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 3:39 pm



Quoting SkyTeamTriStar (Reply 22):
Just like Ford Motor Co. brought back their best selling car, the Taurus

I just hope the new 737 isn't ugly like the Taurus. haha
 
travellin'man
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 3:48 pm



Quoting EI564 (Reply 21):
At the moment both airports only have us immigration but it is planned that both Shannon and Dublin will have full customs and immigration in the next 2 to 3 years.

Which makes them basically almost domestic flights for US passengers. A few 737-700ERs (if they even need that) a day to Boston, maybe NYC might be that much more feasible. Any opinions?
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jacobin777
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 4:10 pm



Quoting N1786b (Reply 11):
"The first round of discussion, so, we're making unreasonable demands and Boeing are giving us some reasonable rejections," Mr O'Leary said. "But the process has started, which I think is better than not talking at all."

..in the end it will be..."Mr. O'Leary said "we were making unreasonable demands and Boeing is caving into our unreasonable demands""... biggrin 
"Up the Irons!"
 
justloveplanes
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 4:13 pm

This is interesting that Boeing is looking to fill its order book to 2012 and beyond pretty aggressively. One must ask the question...why?

A couple of facts:

A) Boeing has stated it MAY be proposing a new Y1 plane in 18 months for delivery in 2015.

B) Airbus is ramping production very aggressively on the A320.

Of these two, the first (A) seems more significant since Boeing has a specific agenda, and that is to fill it's capacity to beyond 2012, NOT to expand it.

FIlling capacity to beyond 2012 (especially with Ryanair) accomplishes a few things for Y1:

1) It secures a revenue stream from blue chip customers to fund Y1 development
2) Perhaps more importantly, once the production slots are filled, Boeing sales folks are in a position to aggressively sell Y1 without fear of cannibalizing 737 near terms sales / revenue / production capacity.

I think Boeing would be willing to deal to accomplish these strategic goals. Hmmm....now let's seeeeee....who do we know with a bunch of options that might want to buy a lot of 737NG's on the cheap.........

After Y1 is announced, this will enable Boeing to sell aggressively against the A320 in point (B)

So in conclusion, I think we are seeing the second visible strategic move for Boeings Y1 launch, the first being Scott Carson's recent comments.
 
kaitak
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 7:03 pm

Don't forget that our friend MO'L has already said that he would wait until a downturn to order widebodies for a new long haul operation (not necessarily operated by FR) ...
 
Vega9000
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 7:20 pm



Quoting Revelation (Reply 15):
Yes, it's entertaining to watch "the rapist" at work! Smile

[For those who don't know, when asked about his last 737 deal, O'Leary said he "raped" Boeing...]



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 25):
..in the end it will be..."Mr. O'Leary said "we were making unreasonable demands and Boeing is caving into our unreasonable demands""...

Well, being M O L who he is, I expect Boeing to be F****'d again, only this time hopefully it will be consensual... Big grin
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N1120A
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 7:29 pm

Looks like FR has more planes to sell off now given that they have never delivered on their lofty expansion goals.

Quoting Vega9000 (Reply 28):

Well, being M O L who he is, I expect Boeing to be F****'d again, only this time hopefully it will be consensual...

While his airline is a good customer, Michael O'Leary is nothing but a flea to Boeing. While Ryanair may well have gotten great discounts, Boeing made money on each and every airplane they sold.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
rampart
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 9:38 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 7):
Yes, the -300/-400/-500 were substantial developments of the -100/-200 but I don't believe I've ever heard reference to 1st, 2nd or 3rd generation families of 737s.

As revolutionary as adding the CFM engines were to the 737, and as revolutionary as the further wing improvements were for the later 737, I've always heard, read, and understood there to be 1st, 2nd, and 3rd generations of 737. Even A.net's aircraft data call the -300 to -500 the "second generation", and the -600 to -900 the "next generation". QED!

Wouldn't it be possible that, for a large 737 order, these later be converted to 737 replacement orders toward the latter end of that order cycle? I would imagine it be written into the agreement. In that sense, while not specifically mentioning it, Ryan air becomes the "launch customer" for the 737 replacement!

-Rampart

[Edited 2007-12-12 13:48:17] (added the QED statement)

[Edited 2007-12-12 13:48:50]
 
baron95
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 10:44 pm

Boing should announce Y1 plans EXACTLY when they can time the Y1 introduction at a date when the existing 737 backlog gets thin.

This way you can announce and immediatelly start selling hard.

Any follow on orders for 737s beyond that point (and there will be some) gets roughly compensated by conversions of 737 orders into Y1 orders for a bit mo money.

So if Y1 is really to hit the market in 2015, I'd expect Boeing to announce it at the point where the 737 backlog starts to stretch solidly into 2015.
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eraugrad02
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 10:56 pm

I hope it's more -900ER's. Think they would order -700ER to fly to some eastcoast USA cities/Canada?
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HOOB747
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Wed Dec 12, 2007 11:32 pm



Quoting SkyTeamTriStar (Reply 22):

I don't expect the next thing to be called a 737.

Dont mess around with a name change when its the best selling jetliner in history.
Just like Ford Motor Co. brought back their best selling car, the Taurus.


Comparing the 737 with the Taurus is like comparing Sophia Loren to Jessica Simpson. Please use another analogy.
I love dem planes....
 
threepoint
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Thu Dec 13, 2007 2:37 am



Quoting Travellin'man (Reply 24):
Which makes them basically almost domestic flights for US passengers.

Almost. Except they have to be processed through international terminals as their bags must go through customs.
The nice thing about a mistake is the pleasure it gives others.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Ryanair Prepares Large Order

Thu Dec 13, 2007 5:16 am



Quoting PM (Reply 7):
Yes, the -300/-400/-500 were substantial developments of the -100/-200 but I don't believe I've ever heard reference to 1st, 2nd or 3rd generation families of 737s. Rather, it's usual to refer to "classics" (everything up to and including the -500) and then the 737NG (the -600 and everything thereafter).

Inside Boeing, "Classic" refers to the 300/400/500 only. The OEM definitely thinks there are three generations.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 17):
Maybe offer standard heads up displays on the 737RS like the 787 and even bigger glass screen displays.

You can get a 737 with HUD's today as an option. I'm sure they'll have it on the 737RS as well.

Tom.

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