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SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 6:26 pm

Top Financial News
Fri, 29 Sep 2000, 5:23am EDT
Singapore to Buy Up to 25 Airbus Superjumbos, Boosting Project
By Claire Leow
http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/topsum.html?s=AOdRaXBY3U2luZ2Fw


Singapore, Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore Airlines Ltd. said it would buy 10 Airbus A3XX superjumbo jetliners and take options for 15 more, a victory for the European planemaker over Boeing Co. as it seeks enough orders to begin building the world's largest passenger plane.

The order from SIA, Asia's most profitable carrier and a bellwether for fleet purchases, helps vindicate Airbus' bet the plane will be commercially viable, as it commits $12 billion to develop it to be ready in late 2005.

SIA decided on the 550-seat Airbus aircraft, worth $235 million at list prices, over a rival offer from Boeing for a planned 516-seat ``stretch'' version of its 747. Designed in part to fly to congested airports such as Heathrow and Narita, the A3XX could now be chosen by other airlines if they want to match SIA in service, analysts say.

``The impact of this order will be felt east and west,'' said Doug McVitie, managing director of Arran Aerospace, an aviation forecasting company based in Scotland. ``Virgin, (British Airways), Qantas, Cathay and a few lesser carriers will all see the potential here to be left behind.''

The engine suppliers will be announced within 30 days. All up the purchase could total $8 billion by the time the aircraft are delivered. Rolls-Royce is competing against an alliance between GE Aircraft Engines and Pratt & Whitney, a unit of United Technologies Corp.

Deliveries of the firm orders will begin in early 2006 and be completed by 2007. Options can be exercised for passenger and freighter versions of the plane.

The announcement came after the Singapore market close. SIA shares traded recently at S$16.70, rising 3 percent for the day.

Seal of Approval

With SIA's order, Airbus now has four customers and 32 firm orders for the A3XX, closer to a goal of 50 before it commits to a $12 billion development program. It earlier won 22 orders from Emirates Airlines, Air France SA and the Los Angeles-based leasing company International Lease Finance Corp. pending a decision to eventually build it.

SIA's decision `` gives the plane the good-housekeeping seal of approval,'' said Daniel Solon, an analyst at Avmark International, an aviation consulting firm in London. Solon commented prior to today's announcement.

Airbus has said it hopes to commit by year's end building the all-new, double-deck plane that would be the first airliner larger than the 747-400, which now flies 400 people long-distance.

``This clearly is a strong endorsement for the program and moves us very close to the full industrial launch,'' said John Leahy, senior vice president, commercial at Airbus.

Boeing Plan

Boeing has said it could invest between $3 billion and $4 billion to develop a new 747 with larger wings and a longer fuselage, stretching its capacity by about 100 passengers. The Seattle maker hasn't yet won any commitments for the project, however.

Richard Aboulafia, director of aviation at the Teal Group, a Fairfax, Virginia-based aviation consultancy, said that Boeing's 747x project can survive without a Singapore order, however.

``The 747X can survive without Singapore,'' he said. ``It just makes their word a little harder, especially in that part of the world.''

The Airbus A3xx will be ready for service in 2005. Airbus argues large jets are needed for congested airport hubs. Boeing disagrees. As a result, both makers have varying forecasts on potential demand for planes in the next two decades. Airbus expects demand for 19,200 new planes by 2019 while Boeing has forecast 28,600.

The order is the second largest in SIA history. The airline in 1995 placed an order with Boeing for as many as 77 jetliners worth as much as $12.7 billion.

Singapore has a fleet of 92 planes, two-thirds of which are Boeing aircraft. It has a separate tender to replace half of its existing Airbus fleet, to be announced in the next few months.

It's building on its international ambitions, buying a 49 percent stake in Virgin Atlantic Airways and a 25 percent stake in Air New Zealand Ltd. in the past year. The latter gives SIA indirect control of Ansett Holdings Ltd., Australia's No. 2 carrier.

Rivalry

The battle for Singapore's order was one of the industry's most closely watched and hard-fought contests over the past decade.

Airbus had said in May that Singapore Air wanted as many as 16 A3XXs. Boeing dispatched a senior management team to Singapore and enlisted the original designer of the 747, retired Boeing executive Joe Sutter, to help sway the carrier. It hosted a meeting of carriers in June to argue that the stretched 747s would be just as cheap to fly as the new A3XXs.

Boeing is preparing to issue a statement later in the day.

 
Jubilee777
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 6:31 pm

YIIPPPEEE !  
J777
 
Guest

RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 6:37 pm

Where is thepotential setback for Airbus the Seattle Times was talking about ?  
 
Udo
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 6:45 pm

Has it been confirmed already?
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
ben88
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 6:49 pm

This is a major victory for Airbus. The SIA order was a huge one. I've never (in my short life) seen Boeing go through so much trouble to try to sway a decision such as this one. This order may be what finally secures the industrial launch of the A3XX. Congratulations to Airbus, and best of luck to Boeing with their 747X project.
 
Jubilee777
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 6:51 pm

For Udo,

check out SIA's website for the statement http://www.singaporeair.com/au_mc_frame.html

J777

 
Udo
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 6:55 pm

Damn, it's true finally!!!!!!   But I have always said the A3XX will find its lovers...and watch out, there are more to come, as SIA is the standard at which everybody looks!

Didn't I read a post about the A3XX remaining a dust collector on some desks??? Must be a huge desk, haha!!!!!!

Best Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
Udo
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 7:45 pm

Where is Gundu? Does he try to talk to Cheong Kong Cheong to re-think the A3XX decision? Or is he burning all his SIA fan stuff?  

Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
gerardo
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 7:54 pm

What can I say? Yiieeeppeee!!!! Great news!!   

And now, how about an order of LH?

Regards
Gerardo

http://www.egroups.com/group/airbus
dominguez(dash)online(dot)ch ... Pushing the limits of my equipment
 
WorldTraveller
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 8:00 pm

     
 
WorldTraveller
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 8:04 pm

SIA's press release says SIA will be the first airline to get the A3XX, it seems they've beaten Emirates!

Regards
the WorldTraveller
 
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flashmeister
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 8:50 pm

This is a big win for the A3XX, but remember that SQ tends to be a little fickle when it comes to a/c choices... so while this is definitely progress for the A3XX, Airbus had better be on the mark with performance, or we could be seeing Boeing buying back these A3XX's for the 747-?00 a few years down the road...
 
shankly
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 9:03 pm

Wonder if there is also anything tied up in this deal with their A310 replacement programme?

I am sure the ripple through SE Asia will now be tremendous, as no major carrier in that area will want to be seen without the 3XX. Who's next MAS or Cathay?

Well done SIA. Well done Airbus.
L1011 - P F M
 
na
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 9:27 pm

The A3XX was SIAs only chance to stay at the very top. They knew that and they decided in the right way. A clear step upwards in terms of comfort is only possible with the whale from Europe. Lets see what Qantas will do. Airbus´ chances are definetely higher down under now - for both the A3XX and the A340.

Still I see a good chance for the B747X-family. Not everyone needs the A3XX-size, but still something bigger than A340-600s or 777-300s. Maybe even SIA will need 747Xs (shortbody) to fill the gap.
 
b757300
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 9:40 pm

I wonder how much money Airbus will lose on this order?
"There is no victory at bargain basement prices."
 
Navion
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This Will Cost Airbus

Fri Sep 29, 2000 9:47 pm

I can promise you Airbus gave these planes away. For months now, everyone has said Singapore is a bellweather customer who could cause other customer's decisions to change. No one should be surprised. I would have been surprised if Boeing had won this account. Singapore will be a "loss leader" as they call it in business.
 
Guest

RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 9:56 pm

Wow, Navion, so Airbus seems to be in a giving-mood right now....
Let´s hurry and talk to them, maybe they still have some A3XX left which they can give away to us ?
 
Jubilee777
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 10:24 pm

Virgin may be next to get the A3XX,

According to SIA's CEO,

On whether SIA's decision to buy superjumbos from Airbus, instead of Boeing, would influence the purchasing decisions of its partner airlines, Dr Cheong said, "Maybe not so much Air New Zealand but Virgin."

"Virgin has expressed an interest and I suppose it could have an influence. But the decision whether they want to follow us and buy the A3XX instead of the Boeing version is a decision that has to be made by the Virgin board of directors. Of course, we will be playing our part as members of that board," he added.


Although SIA has 49% of Virgin, will they choose the A3XX just because SIA selected them ?

J777

 
andrew
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 10:26 pm

Looks like you owe me one Australian Dollar, Jonas. hee hee.


andrew
 
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RayChuang
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 10:46 pm

I'm not surprised that SQ will buy potentially up to 25 A3XX-100's.

The reason is simple: SQ was perhaps the airline most consulted by Airbus in terms of A3XX development.

Given that SQ flights tend to be filled to the max most of the time, I won't be surprised that SQ will be a major customer for the A3XX anyway.

I think by the spring of 2006 SQ will replace the 747-400 with the A3XX-100 on SQ's most important route, SIN-HKG-SFO. It'll be interesting to see how SQ will set up the seating arrangements on the A3XX.
 
Joni
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 11:11 pm


Since these were launch orders, and fiercely competed ones at that, the chances are that SIA got the planes at a very good rate. However, the price of the deal was mentioned, 8.6 *10^9 USD, you can perhaps infer something. For 10 planes that's a whopping 860 million a piece   Of course, it's impossible to figure in exactly what they got for the price so you can't infer how much one plane actually cost, at what definition of a plane.

Another factor may be that SIA has strongly influenced the A3xx design, so they probably really wanted the plane instead of the 747x, which would make them willing to pay more for them.

However, a GREAT day for Airbus one way or another. This was far more important than their last strategic coup at the tiny nation (345 over 777lr). The 747x program presently has some credibility problems, since Boeing has not sold any yet, and used erroneuos information in marketing it. I trust Boeing will eventually find lift under its wings, too, and we'll be treated to more of these peaceful jumbo dogfights we absolutely love. And we'll have threads about how 'everyone' prefers to fly on superjumbo X.

I wonder what kind of first-class experience SIA will wind up putting on their new flagship. Hopefully they'll put a QTVR version on their site, since that's the only way I'll ever get to see it  

Qantas, methinks, will be the next to shop for planes. Will SIA's decision have time to affect theirs, assuming it has any effect to begin with?

Presently, I'm dying to read how the Seattle Times reports this.
 
Guest

RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 11:32 pm

Joni, Singapore Airlines homepage says that the 8.6 billion dollars include the options too.
 
cwapilot
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 11:39 pm

20 more orders to go!
Southside Irish...our two teams are the White Sox and whoever plays the Cubs!
 
velocityair
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 11:41 pm

my take on the Virgin decision lies in whether the would like more access to the US market. if you see BA, and Virgin picking up the A3XX you will see that UK-US Open Skies will take a little longer than anticipated. Boeing has strong ties in Congress and the US airlines are in the limelight right now. I would not be surprised to see BA and Virgin make some commitments to the 747X in the not-so-distant future.
that does not mean that virgin and ba will not order the A3XX ... i am just saying strategically it would be best for them to purchase 747X at this juncture.

T
 
Trvlr
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Fri Sep 29, 2000 11:46 pm

So when will the A310 replacement order be announced? I would have to say that Singapore should go with Boeing on that one.

I can't wait to see the Aingapore A3XXs in the USA!

Aaron G.
 
Hamlet69
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 12:04 am

Definitely a well-deserved win for Airbus and the A3XX.

However, I must concur with B757300 and Navion in saying that I doubt this order will further the economic benefits of the A3XX for Airbus. But don't misunderstand, I don't think Boeing would have made any money on a 747X deal, either. The competition for this order was just too great. The same can be said for the upcoming NW order.

Now, as much as the pro-Airbus fanbase on this site has been attacking the recent Seattle Times article, I think this announcement shows there is actually some truth to the redesign story. Did you notice that SQ said that they will be the first to fly the A3XX, and that they would be taking delivery in early 2006? That is about 4-6 months behind when Airbus has said the A3XX will first be delivered.

As for the pending A310-replacement order, I think Boeing actually just got a shot at it, as SQ will probably go with the Boeing a/c to maintain a good balance between suppliers.

Hamlet69
All gave some. Some gave all.
 
Navion
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Ab400

Sat Sep 30, 2000 12:36 am

I stand by everything I said. I have always believed the A3XX would be built, and I have also believed there is a need for it. I have not "bought into" Airbus' figures however. I think it would be easy to sell 150-200 of them. Does Airbus make money on 200 A3XX's? If they sell 200 A3XX's, they will have to recoup $60,000,000 on each aircraft sold just to offset the development cost alone!!! This doesn't even count the cost to build the actual plane!!! And the figures I'm using are supplied by Airbus!! And they have not corrected them in over a year so $12 Billion in development costs will probably be surpassed. Now analyists are discussing the $12.5 Billion figure routinely. Let's see what you know in response to this information.
 
Guest

RE: Navion

Sat Sep 30, 2000 12:44 am

I would expect that the investment (12$B+) will serve on the long run other purposes than the sole A3XX...I hope and I am sure that advanced solutions on the A3XX that will be engineered for the first time via this aircraft will also be used eventually on other Airbus models...

E.
 
Guest

RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 12:51 am

Then it would make even less sence if they gave away the A3XX to SQ.
 
Joni
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RE: Navion

Sat Sep 30, 2000 12:55 am


The latest Airbus figure for A3xx develpment is USD 10.7bn for the -100 and -100F variants - 12.5bn includes the -50,-200 and combi versions.

 
Adria
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 12:56 am

GO SIA GO!!!!!!!!!!!
Now that's something for my eyes.Airbus has proven it's superjumbo is better than Boeings 30 year old design!
 
wingman
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 1:01 am

First, hats off to Airbus. The easy part is coming to an end. The real test will begin when they actually start building the plane. You can expect the usual delays and cost overruns. There may be room for Boeing yet. FYI, the Airbus development figures are for the design and building of the aircraft only and do not include the additional $6BB pointed out by analysts to cover tooling and plant costs. By the time the first A3XX rolls out the door, most analysts forecast an investment of $18BB or more.
 
AF-A319
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 1:26 am

 
KL808
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 1:39 am

This is a milestone for Airbus indeed. Ill have to bow down. They earned it. However, I think Boeing is also going to sell some 747X to other customers, maybe SQ will buy some too, we never know. You dont know how much I want KLM to order the A3xx Combi, this would look good on their colours. However I dont think they will? dont know do you guys know? Drew
AMS-LAX-MNL
 
Louis
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SQ's A3XX Routes.

Sat Sep 30, 2000 2:00 am

According the the Financial Times, SQ is planning on using the A3XX on the LAX, JFK, SFO, LHR, NRT and HKG routes. I thought that SQ ordered the A345 specifically for a LAX-SIN non-stop? Which plane will be used? Are they going to have the non-stop route and the one via TPE?
 
SIA fan
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 2:35 am

What about the replacement for the A310-300s? Were they not announced yesterday?
SQ*G BD*S
 
Joni
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RE: SQ's A3XX Routes.

Sat Sep 30, 2000 2:53 am


AFAIK they'll use the 345 on the direct route and A3xx with a stop. The 345s will be configured to a very roomy setup, so the direct flight will probably be considerably more expensive.
 
Joni
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Fly-By-Pilot

Sat Sep 30, 2000 4:20 am


Perhaps we should call Airbus and tell them they're making a huge error? They're conducted considerable market research before deciding to proceed with the plane.

So far there's absolutely no signal from Boeing they're making their own superjumbo. Unless, by superjumbo you mean the 747x, which is already all over the place, albeit without any orders.

I find it irritating that people would dismiss out of hand something a world-class corporation has spent 5 years defining and honing to perfection. They know they'll get more than 150 orders. Even Boeing estimates the market is around 500 units, and they've suppressed that figure to make the A3xx look worse.

Look at what the people are doing who really have the best information. ILFC has placed orders and GECAS will place them. Airbus is making it. Boeing is making a competitor. Saying the market for the planes is piffling is saying ILFC, GECAS, Airbus and Boeing are all wrong and you're right. You have obvious potential as an "aerospace consultant".
 
Guest

RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 4:29 am

I guess the first incoming photo´s of an A3XX in the picture-database will get above 10.000 hits within the first week.
Just bad we have to wait another 5 years....
 
MAC_Veteran
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AF-A319: Dammn That Looks Pretty

Sat Sep 30, 2000 4:38 am

AF-A319

That's a pretty picture of the SIA A3XX.

You know, It's so funny watching the A3XX nay-sayers still buzzing like a saw over this. That is -pure- comedy. My applause and sincere nomination for a new show on Comedy Central goes to them. A title like "Denial" would be appropriate.

 

MAC
 
Guest

RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 6:36 am

With this happening, do you think Boeing will go ahead and luach the new 747's?

Anyway, congrats to Airbus!
 
ben88
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 6:43 am

Yes I think Boeing will go ahead with the 747X project, although winning the SIA order would have secured the 747X as it did the A3XX for Airbus.
 
Guest

RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 6:50 am

Overall we might see the best A3XX´s and B747X´s ever possible.
Both have to keep their promisses.
 
b757300
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 8:24 am

I'm wondering, is everyone but me in this fourm an Airbus fan?
"There is no victory at bargain basement prices."
 
widebody
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 8:27 am

From what I understand, even though Emirates wre the first to announce their orders, they will not be the first to receive them...they'll be the third as far as I know...if Singapore are the first, who are the second??

As far A3XX problems in the future, there will be many, though they have already proven that they can overcome them i.e. by obtaining board approval....look at how they dealt with the weight issue.....nobody said they could get the weight down, and they've done just that with the hydraulics and composites......

......where there is a will, there is a way.......
 
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RayChuang
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 12:05 pm

Now that SQ, AF, and EK have confirmed their orders for the A3XX, how long do you think the other airlines will follow?

I think right now, the next likely airlines to order the A3XX will be Qantas and Virgin Atlantic. The orders will likely happen late this year, and the combined orders will be somewhere between 15-20 planes.

I think by 2002-2003 the airlines that will have officially ordered the A3XX will be:

Emirates Airways (confirmed)
Air France (confirmed)
Singapore Airlines (confirmed)
Qantas Airways (orders before end of 2000)
Virgin Atlantic (orders before end of 2000)
British Airways
Lufthansa
Japan Airlines
All-Nippon Airways
Korean Airlines
Asiana Airlines
Cathay Pacific Airways
China Airlines
Air China
China Eastern Airlines
China Southern Airlines
Philippine Airlines
Air India
Saudi Arabian Airlines (maybe)
Gulf Air (maybe)
South African Airways
United Airlines
Northwest Airlines
VARIG Brazilian Airlines

I think if Airbus can swing a good deal through ILFC or GECAS, UA could end up ordering as many as 30 A3XX-100's for their burgeoning long-distance routes to Asia.
 
MAC_Veteran
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To Ray: History Repeating Itself?

Sat Sep 30, 2000 12:19 pm

Ray

If you look at the list you compiled I see -at least- 75% of the carriers not confirmed yet going for the A3XX.

What is so funny in all of this, and I dont know if anyone has caught onto it yet.

Boeing did it again!

They fumbled the airframe football.

They did it once before with the A320 and not replying to it, (for almost 10 years?) literally handing Airbus a market until many years later..and gosh..I'll be dammned if we arent seeing it again with the A3XX.

It took the UAL Airbus A320 purchase back in 1992/93 to finally get Boeing to wake up and start designing (somewhat) narrowbodies again. And now we see the A3XX eclipsing the 747. Simply Amazing! Only this time it Boeing seems quite adamant about any sort of -real- reply to the A3XX unlike the 737NG (primarily the 737-800) versus A320.

History does seem to repeat itself doesnt it?

Regards
MAC
 
lutfi
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 4:06 pm

Ray, going through your list

Emirates Airways (confirmed)

Air France NOT confirmed, all they said was that if they got a 500 seater, it would be the A3XX

Singapore Airlines (confirmed)

Lets not carried away. SQ and Silkair order EVERYTHING (DC10, 757, A310, A300, A320, F70, B737, B727, B777-200/300, A340-300/500 amazed they forgot the BAe 146!) They may get B747X freighters in the end anyway.

Qantas Airways (orders before end of 2000) - 10-12
Virgin Atlantic (orders before end of 2000)

British Airways - prefer 747-str or 777

Lufthansa - not interested

Japan Airlines - no money
All-Nippon Airways - no money
Korean Airlines - no money
Asiana Airlines - no money
Cathay Pacific Airways - not interested
China Airlines - no money
Air China - no traffic
China Eastern Airlines - maybe
China Southern Airlines - what routes?
Philippine Airlines - definitely no money!
Air India - ditto
Saudi Arabian Airlines - no
Gulf Air - no money
South African Airways - no
United Airlines - no money
Northwest Airlines - more likely 747 str
VARIG Brazilian Airlines - no money

There are very few airlines with the money to cope with introducing the A3XX. Very few airlines make money out of the B744, which is why the A340 and B777 have become so popular.

I wouldn't count out the 747X. It makes a great freighter, and so may pick up 30 or so orders that way (Cargolux, Atlas, Cathay) The A3xx is a poor freighter

I may be wrong, but I honestly believe that B777 and A340-600 will be much more common. Airlines are not charities, and those aircraft have better profit potential
 
philb
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RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 7:22 pm

Re the airline list, just a couple of comments on Lufti's "corrections":

The chances of Lufthansa ordering A3XX (when will they give it a "proper" number?) are very high as they consider themselves to be the "premier EC airline".

They will have to compete with SIA and Qantas out of Germany for the hold cargo and bulk traffic market down the "kangaroo route".

Cathay is an interesting one.

Always at the forefront in equipment terms, its future fleet procurement will be dictated by the tourist/business market growth to Hong Kong and its access to the burgeoning markets of Shanghai and Canton. If Cathay gets to be treated like any other Chinese carrier then it will need the A3XX for its hold cargo space and the seats it offers.

The politico/economic situation in that part of China is changing fast and I can see Cathay working to be able to share in the enormous growth upcoming over the next 10-20 years.

Also, don't forget the leasing companies. It won't be too long after the "magic" 50 orders before the big players in the leasing market secure their delivery slots.

Airline management is very much like the car buying public. If their neighbour has the latest model, they want one too - and they oftem "make" a type fit their route structure. With leasing companies offering turnkey deals, there will be many deals where the aircraft is leased more for airline prestige than real return.

If the above sounds crazy, then you need to explain some of the following:

Cameroon B747
MEA B747
Syrian B747SP
Turkish DC10
and dozens of others where an airline bought or leased unsuitable equipment.
 
FlyBoeing
Posts: 835
Joined: Fri May 05, 2000 2:08 am

RE: SQ To Buy Up To 25 A3XX's

Sat Sep 30, 2000 8:59 pm

I think that those days are over. Testosterone doesn't make an airline do things anymore, not after the recession of 1992. The industry's matured. Actual business sense prolongs here. Airlines used to have a lot of different types but now they are switching, for coherency, to one type; extreme examples of this are CO, DL, and WN which only use Boeing and the Qualiflyer group which is gradually funneling out to all-Airbus.

For instance, I don't care when I fly on 747s any more. I don't care when it's an A340 or 330 when I fly.

And if you consider that a lot of companies are balking at the cost of first-class travel then why bother making first class so good? Business class is where it's at, I think.

And I see a downturn in the US economy coming. Look at Wall street these days. (which'll hopefully be recitified by the time I graduate) and this whole "traffic growth" thing'll be gone or at least postponed. I foresee a lot of empty seats on A3XX flights in the future.

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