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Joined: Fri May 05, 2000 2:08 am

World Economic Downturn And The A3XX

Sun Oct 01, 2000 1:48 pm

If you've seen the Q3 earnings reports for U.S corporations, they quite frankly suck. The bubble of the 1990s is bursting. The U.S, and by extension the European economies, are going to have if not a recession a bit of slower growth these days. What do you guys think about traffic growth? Because traffic growth is the only reason to buy an A3XX or 747X. Therefore, I believe that Boeing can introduce its 787 in ten years (and I think that this estimate doesn't take into account the effect of CAD on prototype construction).

The 787 will be introduced at the right time for airlines.
This unfortunate recession will be bad for the A3XX (which has its merits) But technology will advance allowing Boeing to exert its massive experience and make an incredible VLA.

Any thoughts on my forecast?
Posts: 2132
Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2000 10:11 am

A3XX Is @ The Right Time

Sun Oct 01, 2000 1:55 pm

The A3XX-100 will fly in 6 years. This is the small, inefficent version of the true plane, in the A3XX-200. That should come online in 2010 some here stated. Figure an 8 year downturn, then, on the rebound, here is a huge plane to take more people with ever increasing amoutns of money, where they want to go, CHEAPLY.

Boeing keeps stating there is a market for the A3XX and 747X, but their main idea is that there is no need for a new plane. What would a 787 be? A double decker, a 3 aisle wide body. I can see the current 747X, followed 10 years by the last generation of the 747 in like an -800 series, close to a double decker, and as efficent as the hull can be. From there, around 2015, yes, their might be a 787, wether it is a SuperJumbo or not......

Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 1999 3:03 am

RE: World Economic Downturn And The A3XX

Sun Oct 01, 2000 2:06 pm

Someone crashes an A3XX into Wall Street or into the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to "stimulate the economy". (G)

OK..seriously now how can one or two quarters be an implacable indicator of the future? This year has seen an incredible increases in fuel pricing, hence inflationary pressure.

One figment of the economy that has been totally under-reported I might add which I will light into a temporary rant in the next paragraph.

Fuel prices are high right now and the results of this is being reflected. However it's way too early to deduce we are headed for economic ruin just yet. If the indicators continue the way they are, with fuel remaining high, and inflation edging up (using real indicators, not the politically manipulated CPI President BubbleAss has been allowed to mess with stupifying the US public), international events like this chaos in Israel and Iraq's moves to threaten Kuwait/Saudi Arabia, will for sure cause cardiac disfunction in fuels-future speculation, which I think should be *heavily regulated* to prevent market panics like the one that was a prime catalyst setting off recessions like we saw in the 1990 timeframe (which when you think about it, was --totally-- unnecessary causing all sorts of economic misery and helped elect (what I view as) a corrupt jerk into the White House. Given the outcome of Desert Storm, why did the fuels market do what it did back then? Funny how we forget that one). You want to see high blood pressure? Become a fuels trader/speculator in the commodity market. (G)

We may be in for some rough times ahead. I dont think it will be any sort of a mess comparable to what Asia experienced in 1997-1998 though. That was a really bad one. By far, that was the main reason airlines took a holiday buying airplanes there in -more recent- history.

Carioca Canuck
Posts: 632
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2000 4:03 pm

RE: World Economic Downturn And The A3XX

Sun Oct 01, 2000 2:25 pm

Airlines that are able to move more pax with less aircraft and correspondingly less costs are the ones that will survive and thrive. The larger aircraft on drawing boards are a reflection of this.

Recession or not the math is the same.

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