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Tigerguy
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Sat Aug 27, 2011 9:39 pm

The turboprop issue has made its way into the news once again: Frontier turboprops a fine fit for Aspen

Quote:
A year ago, Frontier announced it was pulling out of Aspen after Lynx's disposal but did an about-face and continued service when lease arrangements on the turboprops fell through.

Since then, "we've seen steady improvement of Frontier's performance here," Tomcich said, adding that Frontier outperformed United/SkyWest last winter in filling planes.

Tomcich said that if Frontier officials "are forced to abandon Aspen, it's not a decision they would make lightly."

Taken with the other fleet developments, this continues to be an interesting story. I know there are some who see this as just another part of the strategic mess. (Yeah, I'd like for them to get their fleet moves hammered down, too, but I'd also like a Jag XKR in my driveway tomorrow morning. Fortunately, it seems that the former is closer to fruition.) The turboprops still have a valuable place in the fleet, and it's not just about ASE.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:17 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 49):
I thought my mom was the only one who said that. Glad to see it make an appearance here.

I like your mom already.  

For me (and it's just me, folks) there are only three possible reactions to anything in life (i) yes (ii) no and (iii) silly and I thought Delta's conniption fit over MCI-MSP was (iii) silly. I was extremely pleased that BB didn't cave - I was always disappointed that "old" Frontier caved over SLC-PVR.

Which doesn't mean that I think that MCI-MSP will be a gangbusters for Frontier - in the short term. I think that at least in the winter it may need to be nursed, it may take time to build. I hope it is given that time.

Looking at SLC, I'm not sure how much more Delta can - realistically - expect to own, it swamps just every other carrier, including, as of January, Southwest. Which doesn't mean I see great opportunities for Frontier at SLC and which doesn't mean that I think PVU is a gangbusters alternative - I am not sure it is gangbusters now, despite the (reportedly) very good loads.

I've always said I think PVU is a risk well worth taking, given there is so little risk attached to it, even though I also think it may need a couple more routes before it can achieve what appears to be its potential. I think the same may be true of RFD.

As to Southwest, I am surprised that it dropped BOI-SLC completely, rather than cutting back to 1 x daily (I might have thought the same about BOI-RNO), but I suppose the 2 x daily mantra plays into this and I guess Southwest thinks it has more valuable places to use the aircraft.

But I am not really advocating any of these routes (such as BOI-PVU) for Frontier - Daniel Shurz will go his own way without any help from me or us, he has the real numbers - but I do think that in the west, at least, Frontier is a wee bitty spoiled for choice and I would like to see more "non-DEN." Then again, I'd like to see a couple more DEN routes, too. The north-east has long been a bit of a hole in the route map and since I don't think DEN-BOS is a good idea, the devil in me wonders if there is anything in MHT (yeh, yeh, I know).

I think MKE is a different story - a few months ago I said I'd like to see MKE "sorted out" and that seems to be happening. I think MKE is more directly affected by what happens with Southwest/Airtran and by what happens with the LGA/DCA slot swaps and I am not yet convinced the result will be what many here have predicted.

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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Sun Aug 28, 2011 12:43 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 48):
The 318's will remain with F9 for the foreseeable future. Bryan Bedford decided to hang on to them as the Embraer 170's left the fleet. The 318's will help to alleviate the loss of aircraft.

Almost right....they are staying to make up for the 4 A319s that leave in 2012 beginning in Jan. Aircraft 936, 937, 940 and 942 will be going in 2012. The first A318 will leave in Sept. 2012, one in 2013, and the last two in 2014. The plan is to replace those with used A319s.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Sun Aug 28, 2011 1:50 am

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 42):
There was a follow-up post suggesting that this extra gate could be used for Apple Vacations charters, but with the FL brand disappearing (this will leave MDW with only three main carriers) does anyone think that F9 could make a small expansion there?

I suppose it could be connected with the rumored winding down of USA3000?

I say "rumored" because I have never seen any official confirmation of it (although Wiki has a "semi-confirmation" about the fleet), but this thread spells it out and LAXIntl provides an internal memo about the fleet reductions:

USA 3000 To Shutdown? (by LAXintl Apr 15 2011 in Civil Aviation)

"Fleet Size
Till October 29, 2011 - 5
From October 30, 2011 till January 02, 2012 - 4
From January 03, 2012 till February 15, 2012 - 3
From February 16, 2012 till October 15, 2012 - 2
October 16, 2012 till January 2013 - 1


As I understand it, Frontier will be flying for Apple from BOS and RFD (which USA3000 doesn't serve) and STL (which it does). There may be more, but it hasn't reached me yet.

USA3000 flies charter routes from ORD but also holds an authority for scheduled service ORD-CUN - which, if they are winding down, will go, but could USA3000 continue to hold the authority with the service operated by Frontier from MDW - or would the DOT be cross? And what happens to USA3000's routes to RSW?

Or maybe there is something else in the works?

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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Sun Aug 28, 2011 5:21 am

Quoting mcg (Reply 46):
Thanks for the GEG info. I'm glad to see service continue as I sometimes use GEG is a low cost alternative to MSO.

Yikes...quite a drive! Then again, Montana basically gets the screws as far as cheap airline service goes.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Sun Aug 28, 2011 2:56 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 54):
Quoting mcg (Reply 46):
Thanks for the GEG info. I'm glad to see service continue as I sometimes use GEG is a low cost alternative to MSO.

Yikes...quite a drive! Then again, Montana basically gets the screws as far as cheap airline service goes.

It's three hours over Lookout Pass. in some cases you can save $300 or $400 so it can be worth it, especially if there are two folks traveling and you've got time for the drive.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Mon Aug 29, 2011 6:28 am

Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 44):
Personally I'd like to see them make a go of MDW-MKE. Obviously the route wouldn't have much O/D, but there might be enough travelers willing to do MDW-MKE-BOS or MDW-MKE-MCO to make it worthwhile. Right now I doubt their is any loyalty in MDW for F9 unless people are only traveling West.

I agree that MKE-MDW would be an interesting route to try, but with all the non-stop service that WN has I'm not sure if many people would be interested to go out of their way for that kind of a connection. There might not be much MDW loyalty for F9 at the moment, but with FL leaving the picture the only other brand they'd have to compete with for second place is DL. If they end up starting a few Mexico flights from MDW (CUN and PVR come to mind) then I really think they should also look into a p2p route like MDW-MCO.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Mon Aug 29, 2011 10:20 am

Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 44):
Personally I'd like to see them make a go of MDW-MKE. Obviously the route wouldn't have much O/D, but there might be enough travelers willing to do MDW-MKE-BOS
Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 56):
I agree that MKE-MDW would be an interesting route to try,

I worked for a small commuter that flew ATW-MKE-MDW back in the early 80's. It went gangbusters albeit we were only flying a Piper Cheiftain. I think about half the pax connected either in MKE or MDW w/ old ML but we started it because of the O&D from ATW-MDW and surprisingly picked up a lot of MKE-MDW pax too.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Mon Aug 29, 2011 3:17 pm

Boyd Group had a small analysis out with data on traffic at DEN as of the end of 2010.

Carrier - Average Daily Enplanements - Market Share - % Local O&D - Average Fare - Yield cents
Frontier - 7,499 - 22.6% - 60.3% - $139.86 - 12.94
Southwest - 9,247 - 27.9% - 50.0% - $145.40 - 13.24
United - 10,454 - 31.5% - 58.2% - $209.03 - 16.89

As we know Frontier conceded the #2 market-share spot at DEN to SWA, however it also seems to have ceded the revenue spot. Even with a higher local O&D component which tends to yield higher than connecting flow, its trails SWA in average fare & yield.

Quoting mariner (Reply 53):
I say "rumored" because I have never seen any official confirmation of it

As a sign that its indeed happening, a couple of their planes are being marketed in SpeedNews.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Mon Aug 29, 2011 4:23 pm

Quoting TZTriStar500 (Reply 52):
The plan is to replace those with used A319s.
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 58):
As a sign that its indeed happening, a couple of their planes are being marketed in SpeedNews.

Wonder if they can make a deal for the USA3000 birds? They'd be 320s, but I think those would be preferred, especially at the right price.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 57):
I worked for a small commuter that flew ATW-MKE-MDW back in the early 80's. It went gangbusters albeit we were only flying a Piper Cheiftain. I think about half the pax connected either in MKE or MDW w/ old ML but we started it because of the O&D from ATW-MDW and surprisingly picked up a lot of MKE-MDW pax too.

I think if they are serious about the MKE hub they need to connect more of the dots. They already draw from northern IL, but I doubt may people would drive from South Chicago for low fares from MKE. I bet WN's fares are high enough at MDW for F9 to build up its niche a bit.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Mon Aug 29, 2011 5:05 pm

Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 59):
Wonder if they can make a deal for the USA3000 birds?

If F9 wants more A320s, there are something like 86 of them available for remarketing currently. So its not like the USA3000 birds are one-off opportunities.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Mon Aug 29, 2011 6:54 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 58):
As a sign that its indeed happening, a couple of their planes are being marketed in SpeedNews.

I believe it to be true, LAXIntl, which is why i quoted you. But I still don't have a press release or any official confirmation of it and you know what a.net can be like unless I provide links.

There are several aspects of it that interest me - such as the disposal of the fleet and how much of the charter business may eventually go to Frontier.

And what happens to the scheduled service Mexican authorities that USA3000 holds which I assume it will hang on to till close to the end.

Frontier applied for Chicago-CUN (from MDW) last time around and it went to USA3000 for ORD-CUN. Would Frontier try for it again?

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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Mon Aug 29, 2011 8:23 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 47):
The one I didn't mention and which intrigues me is RFD. I've heard vague chirps that, for so far out, it's actually booking quite well (which doesn't mean it's a bonanza yet!) at least on some flights - but I have nothing I'd take to the bank.

And then a kind dickie-bird sent me this, which I had missed:

http://www.rrstar.com/businessrockfo...r-traffic-down-in-July-up-for-year

"Sundquist said sales of tickets to Denver on Frontier Airlines have been outpacing sales to Denver from Madison%u2019s Dane County Regional Airport and Chicago%u2019s Midway Airport. Frontier begins service from Rockford Dec. 16.

Sundquist said the airport has been inundated with requests for a day trip between Rockford and Denver on Dec. 11, the day the Chicago Bears play the Denver Broncos at Invesco Field at Mile High. He said Frontier is checking its flight schedules to see if it would be possible to add a day trip for Bears fans."


But it's a tricky one to find in the travel websites.

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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Mon Aug 29, 2011 8:36 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 61):
I still don't have a press release or any official confirmation of it and you know what a.net can be like unless I provide links.

I doubt we're likely to see anything like a press release regarding USA 3000, since it's a subsidiary of a privately-owned company. Apple Leisure Group has little to gain from any announcements that they'll be shutting down their airline subsidiary, but I would imagine that they are finding it more cost-effective to let other carriers (Frontier, Allegiant, Vision, etc.) bid for their business going forward. Running an airline with five A320's has got to be pretty expensive.

Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 59):
I doubt may people would drive from South Chicago for low fares from MKE. I bet WN's fares are high enough at MDW for F9 to build up its niche a bit.

The real question is whether F9 could draw enough people from MDW willing to make a connection at MKE for a fare that would be worthwhile, particularly when you factor in the cost of getting those passengers from MDW to MKE. It would be difficult for them to put enough capacity into MDW to have a noticeable effect on WN's operation; even running 10 daily A320's would only match 5-6% of WN's capacity. They'd likely have to underprice Southwest to compete with WN's non-stops, and I fail to see how that makes a money-losing MKE operation more profitable.

It makes more sense to compete from a position of strength (like DEN or MCI or MKE) than a position of weakness.

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 56):
There might not be much MDW loyalty for F9 at the moment, but with FL leaving the picture the only other brand they'd have to compete with for second place is DL.

I think "Midway" brand loyalty is less important than "Chicago" brand loyalty. If people are choosing to fly out of MDW for convenience, they're probably not going to choose a connection somewhere else unless price is a strong motivation, given the abundance of non-stop flights from MDW and ORD.

Quoting mariner (Reply 47):
You should all probably be grateful I'm not route planning at Frontier because in view of Southwest's cancelled BOI-SLC (and the Mormon populations) I'd be looking at PVU-BOI once a day.

Boise-Salt Lake O&D is pretty low, and with the speed limit being 75 most of the way (and speeding tickets in Idaho being under $50), I'd guess most people drive. PVU is more distant, of course, but I think college students will drive so they can have their cars at both ends.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Mon Aug 29, 2011 8:43 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 63):
I doubt we're likely to see anything like a press release regarding USA 3000, since it's a subsidiary of a privately-owned company.

We may not. My point is only that I am not going to state it as a fact until I have some source other than a.net.   

But at least the Frontier/Apple Vacations deal is confirmed:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fro...ers-for-apple-vacations-2011-08-29

"Frontier Airlines to Provide Charters for Apple Vacations

Agreement includes flights from the U.S. to five international destinations

The first year of the agreement calls for Frontier to provide charter flights from cities in the Midwest and Northeast to five Mexican, Central American and Caribbean destinations. Apple Vacations destinations served by the Frontier charters will include Cancun, Mexico (CUN); Huatulco, Mexico (HUX); Liberia, Costa Rica (LIR); Montego Bay, Jamaica (MBJ); and Punta Cana, Dominican Republic (PUJ)."


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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Mon Aug 29, 2011 11:56 pm

Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 59):
Wonder if they can make a deal for the USA3000 birds? They'd be 320s, but I think those would be preferred, especially at the right price.

Though I think A320s would be obviosuly better for CASM, the last I have been told is no, only A319s.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 60):
If F9 wants more A320s, there are something like 86 of them available for remarketing currently. So its not like the USA3000 birds are one-off opportunities.

A large component here is not that they or A319s are available, but at the dirt cheap rates Republic wants. For this reason, they will almost certainly be older aircraft than those they will be replacing. I've already seen spec sheets for some that were 'getting their tires kicked'.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 12:21 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 64):
But at least the Frontier/Apple Vacations deal is confirmed:

According to the Apple list, Frontier tails will be appearing at CVG and also at CLE and appear to be replacing JetBlue at BOS and USA3000 at PHL:

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-schedule/cvg-cincinnati/

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-schedule/cle-cleveland/

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-schedule/bos-boston/

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-schedule/phl-philadelphia/

Airtran seems to be retaining PIT, CMH and most of BWI, although Frontier sneaks in BWI-PUJ, and it looks as if USA3000 will be out of STL by the end of January. It's all Frontier at DEN, but with ZIH operated by Republic, so - I guess - that's the E190:

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-schedule/den-denver/

Chicago (ORD) stays mostly USA3000, with some AeroMexico and Frontier gets a CUN frequency and HUX:

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-schedule/mdw-midway_ord-ohare/

And RFD -PUJ and CUN:

http://www.applevacations.com/flight-schedule/rfd-rockford/

In other news, the f/a's have ratified the contract and will get equity in Frontier:

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/ne...tier-flight-attendants-ratify.html

"In exchange for those concessions, the flight attendants will get an equity stake in Frontier and be eligible to participate in the profit-sharing program."

mariner

[Edited 2011-08-29 18:12:34]
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 1:16 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 61):
But I still don't have a press release or any official confirmation of it and you know what a.net can be like unless I provide links.

Besides internal stuff I have not seen anything public either. I'm not sure however its something they really need to broadcast to the world being privately held inhouse operation.
But I have heard however they are having to pay retention bonuses to groups like pilots to gang on to them while the planes are still around. No surprise people are bailing to folks like JetBlue, Spirit and Virgin America as the opportunities arise.

Quoting mariner (Reply 61):
And what happens to the scheduled service Mexican authorities that USA3000 holds which I assume it will hang on to till close to the end.

Well the authorities are attached to the certificate. I'm not sure what Apple will do with the Brendan Airways certificate, if they will try to sell it, or simply return it.
Never the less anyone should be able to make a compelling case to the DOT to have them reallocated if they go dormant for some period.

Quoting mariner (Reply 66):
Chicago (ORD) stays mostly USA3000

Yup looks like ORD is about the only flying left for USA3000 by end of January 2012. Not even PHL their HQ.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:17 am

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 67):
Well the authorities are attached to the certificate. I'm not sure what Apple will do with the Brendan Airways certificate, if they will try to sell it, or simply return it.

Any idea how many scheduled Mexico authorities Brendan Airways still holds? It used to have several, including - among others - DTW-CUN and BDL-CUN - and MKE-CUN.

I know the last has been resolved (Frontier/Airtran/Delta) but some were granted in 2009 for two years and expire tomorrow.

mariner

[Edited 2011-08-29 21:20:28]
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 3:30 pm

Quoting TZTriStar500 (Reply 65):
Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 59):
Wonder if they can make a deal for the USA3000 birds? They'd be 320s, but I think those would be preferred, especially at the right price.

Though I think A320s would be obviosuly better for CASM, the last I have been told is no, only A319s.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 60):
If F9 wants more A320s, there are something like 86 of them available for remarketing currently. So its not like the USA3000 birds are one-off opportunities.

A large component here is not that they or A319s are available, but at the dirt cheap rates Republic wants. For this reason, they will almost certainly be older aircraft than those they will be replacing. I've already seen spec sheets for some that were 'getting their tires kicked'.

Are the A319's leaving the fleet leased or owned?
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:10 pm

Quoting mcg (Reply 69):
Are the A319's leaving the fleet leased or owned?

Leased from GECAS. It was part of the fleet renegotiation deal with GE over the summer

Quoting mariner (Reply 66):
According to the Apple list, Frontier tails will be appearing at CVG and also at CLE and appear to be replacing JetBlue at BOS and USA3000 at PHL:

This seems to be a great way to keep the fleet moving about during the slower winter months. This could become a very lucrative part of Frontier's business in the future.

Quoting Tigerguy (Reply 50):
Taken with the other fleet developments, this continues to be an interesting story.

Yes it does. With E170 out of the Frontier fleet, the Q400 may just have a role. The issue is now that the deed is done and most of the fleet is gone. The issue with having 11 of them was that there were too many for the local sort of "Colorado Mountain Flying" and there were flights that were not of the initial mission it seemed (such as Tulsa). I dont pretend to know the right answer, because I dont have the numbers, but the game has changed somewhat since the decision to remove them initially, back in 2010. My how things change quickly.
 
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:34 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 68):
Any idea how many scheduled Mexico authorities Brendan Airways still holds?

A ton of them.

Quoting mariner (Reply 68):
I know the last has been resolved (Frontier/Airtran/Delta) but some were granted in 2009 for two years and expire tomorrow.

There was a flurry of renewals this spring including for ones that expire on Aug 31/Sep 1st.

The renewals processed this year are: (I hope I got them all.)

Chicago, Illinois - Cozumel, Mexico
Chicago, Illinois - Huatulco, Mexico
Chicago, Illinois - Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
Chicago, Illinois - San Jose del Cabo, Mexico
Chicago, Illinois - Zihuatanejo, Mexico
Cleveland, Ohio - Cancun, Mexico
Cleveland, Ohio - Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
Columbus Ohio - Cancun, Mexico
Detroit, Michigan - Cancun, Mexico
Detroit, Michigan - San Jose del Cabo, Mexico
Detroit, Michigan - Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
Detroit, Michigan - Cozumel, Mexico
Detroit, Michigan-Zihuatanejo/lxtapa, Mexico
Hartford, Connecticut-Cancun, Mexico
Lansing, Michigan - Cancun, Mexico
Milwaukee, Wisconsin - Cancun, Mexico
Milwaukee, Wisconsin - Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania - Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
Pittsburgh, PA - Cancun, Mexico
St. Louis, Missouri - Cancun, Mexico
St. Louis, Missouri - Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
St. Louis, Missouri - San Jose del Cabo, Mexico

They also hold updated authorities to Bahamas, Bermuda, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, amongst others.

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 70):
This seems to be a great way to keep the fleet moving about during the slower winter months. This could become a very lucrative part of Frontier's business in the future.

It could, but such charter flying is rather small in size in the US compared to Europe. Also its often hyper competitive with low ball pricing from carriers.
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 7:04 pm

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 70):
I dont pretend to know the right answer, because I dont have the numbers, but the game has changed somewhat since the decision to remove them initially, back in 2010. My how things change quickly.

I agree.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 71):
There was a flurry of renewals this spring including for ones that expire on Aug 31/Sep 1st.

Thanks for the list - that saved me a bunch of time.  

I wonder why they would renew some of those? If we are talking scheduled service, I also thought the airline has - or had - PHL-CUN but, no longer, MKE-CUN.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 71):
It could, but such charter flying is rather small in size in the US compared to Europe. Also its often hyper competitive with low ball pricing from carriers.

Even so, as per BB's list of what the restructuring deals are worth, the contract is profitable for Frontier and what has been announced is only the first year:

"The first year of the agreement calls for Frontier to provide charter flights from cities in the Midwest and Northeast to five Mexican, Central American and Caribbean destinations."

It may not be the greatest ROI in the history of airlines, but a bulk of it is for slow winter and geld ist geld.

I've no idea where it will go and I doubt Apple is planning any exclusivity here - I assume that Sun Country is still flying for them? - but with the inclusion of BOS and RFD, Apple isn't just replacing the present USA3000 route map.

So I guess Frontier may (?) be in line for the rest of the Chicago (ORD) flying but I don't know what will happen to Florida, especially RSW.

mariner

[Edited 2011-08-30 12:26:26]
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ScottB
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 7:56 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 67):
Quoting mariner (Reply 66):
Chicago (ORD) stays mostly USA3000

Yup looks like ORD is about the only flying left for USA3000 by end of January 2012.

One wonders if U5 is keeping the ORD flying for now because of the complication of authorities; i.e. if U5 dropped the ORD-Mexico service, would Southwest move in to grab the Chicago authorities via their AirTran subsidiary?

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 70):
This seems to be a great way to keep the fleet moving about during the slower winter months.

It isn't happening for just the "slower winter months." Some part of the Frontier fleet is committed through the summer. That's good in that there's a guaranteed margin of some amount on the flying, but it takes away from the scheduled operation, too.

Quoting mariner (Reply 72):
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 71):
It could, but such charter flying is rather small in size in the US compared to Europe. Also its often hyper competitive with low ball pricing from carriers.

Even so, as per BB's list of what the restructuring deals are worth, the contract is profitable for Frontier and what has been announced is only the first year:

Profitable is good, especially in light of the last several quarters of results for branded, but they must have bid quite aggressively. I will say I'm not entirely convinced that it is profitable, given the wording in the press release: "The agreement provides stability for both companies and offers Frontier improved economics for a portion of our fleet during some of the slower travel periods.” Improved economics isn't necessarily profitability; it could mean a narrow loss (less than operating the service in the branded network or just parking the planes).

Quoting mariner (Reply 72):
I doubt Apple is planning any exclusivity here - I assume that Sun Country is still flying for them? - but with the inclusion of BOS and RFD, Apple isn't just replacing the present USA3000 route map.

SY appears to have the flying for DFW, LAN & MSP, but that may be a matter of authorities and/or what Apple had put up for bid. With BOS, it looks like F9 is replacing B6, and that may just be a matter of simplification for Apple, as that appears to be the only relationship between Apple & JetBlue.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 67):
But I have heard however they are having to pay retention bonuses to groups like pilots to gang on to them while the planes are still around. No surprise people are bailing to folks like JetBlue, Spirit and Virgin America as the opportunities arise.

As the adage goes, the best time to be looking for a job is while you already have one. From the schedule of lease returns you posted for U5, it has got to be enormously expensive to run an airline (from a unit cost perspective) with only two aircraft, which will be the case after mid-February.
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 8:23 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 73):
Profitable is good, especially in light of the last several quarters of results for branded, but they must have bid quite aggressively.


However aggressively Frontier may have bid, I can't think of many airlines that would commit this number of aircraft to the partnership. It would represent almost Sun Country's entire fleet, I assume Southwest has other plans for the Airtran fleet and I'm not sure that JetBlue would be interested.

There are the small fry, I suppose, but since Apple and Frontier have an established relationship (DEN-LIR among others) I would guess Apple likes constancy/reliability and would they really trust this to, say, Ryan International who don't have sufficient aircraft and who botched things up when it was flying for Airtran?

Sometimes, life is a two way street, even for Frontier.

mariner

[Edited 2011-08-30 14:08:16]
aeternum nauta
 
n7371f
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 9:26 pm

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 70):
Quoting mcg (Reply 69):
Are the A319's leaving the fleet leased or owned?

Leased from GECAS. It was part of the fleet renegotiation deal with GE over the summer

936 leased from AFS Investments X LLC originally through 2/18/17
937 leased from AFS Investments 58 LLC originally through 2/17/17
940 leased from AFS Investments 58 LLC originally through 5/11/17
942 leased from AFS Investments 58 LLC originally through 6/22/17

All of these are now going back to GECAS next year.
 
mcg
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:03 pm

Quoting n7371f (Reply 75):
Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 70):
Quoting mcg (Reply 69):
Are the A319's leaving the fleet leased or owned?

Leased from GECAS. It was part of the fleet renegotiation deal with GE over the summer

936 leased from AFS Investments X LLC originally through 2/18/17
937 leased from AFS Investments 58 LLC originally through 2/17/17
940 leased from AFS Investments 58 LLC originally through 5/11/17
942 leased from AFS Investments 58 LLC originally through 6/22/17

All of these are now going back to GECAS next year.

Thanks. I guess I don't understand why any lessee would return an asset to a lessor and then source identical equipment elsewhere. It makes more sense to simply renew or buy the original item of equipment. It is much simpler and therefor cheaper to avoid shuffling equipment.
 
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TZTriStar500
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:22 pm

Quoting mcg (Reply 76):
Thanks. I guess I don't understand why any lessee would return an asset to a lessor and then source identical equipment elsewhere. It makes more sense to simply renew or buy the original item of equipment. It is much simpler and therefor cheaper to avoid shuffling equipment.

Not when GECAS says no to the package lease rate reduction. There are twenty some A319s leased from GECAS and it was either no lease rate reductions or we'll reduce them, but we want these four late model aircraft back. They can get the higher rates on these aircraft from another airline. Its simply a condition of this deal or nothing, which is sometimes not optimal. Overall, even after adding replacements, the overall lease rate will be cheaper, but I agree with the disruptions and hidden costs these things cause that always don't get considered.
35 years of American Trans Air/ATA Airlines, 1973-2008. A great little airline that will not be soon forgotten.
 
mikefrommke
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:27 pm

Quoting mcg (Reply 76):
Thanks. I guess I don't understand why any lessee would return an asset to a lessor and then source identical equipment elsewhere. It makes more sense to simply renew or buy the original item of equipment. It is much simpler and therefor cheaper to avoid shuffling equipment.

They did this in exchange for concessions from GE on the rest of their leased aircraft in monthly payments and engine overhaul costs. The replacement aircraft have potential to be a better deal either if they purchase them or get better leasing terms through someone else. There is always the potential that they can't find good replacements, but they've been able to get good deals before (the ex Mexicana birds).
 
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TZTriStar500
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:42 pm

Quoting mikefrommke (Reply 78):
but they've been able to get good deals before (the ex Mexicana birds).


I've got news for you, the ex-Mexicana aircraft were NOT good deals. The rates are high for industry averages and I'm sure highest of the A319s in the F9 fleet as they are the newest. I hope they are able to talk Aercap down on them in re-negotiations and not return them early.
35 years of American Trans Air/ATA Airlines, 1973-2008. A great little airline that will not be soon forgotten.
 
mcg
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Wed Aug 31, 2011 4:44 pm

Thanks Mike and Tristar for the info about the GECAS deal. If I understand correctly that the plan is to return 319's to GE and then source replacement 319's in the used aircraft market. it would make more sense to me to either pay GE for the currently leased 319's or purchase alternative 319's and return the alternative aircraft to GE.

The reason I think this way is to avoid having to introduce aircraft into the F9 fleet that are not consistent (for lack of better word) with the 319's already there. The best 319's for Frontier are the 319's they already own. I'm sure GE would be happy to accept money for the four 319's in question.
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Wed Aug 31, 2011 7:49 pm

The comment period for the proposed US/Delta slot swap at DCA/LGA is over and Frontier has filed its comments:

http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=FAA-2010-0109-0134

Click on the pdf icon to read the comments.

In part, Frontier is keen for more slots but is arguing for the auction(s) to be unbundled. I think Frontier makes a good case - but then I have a certain bias.  

Whether it means anything to the DOT is another matter.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
ScottB
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Wed Aug 31, 2011 9:38 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 81):
The comment period for the proposed US/Delta slot swap at DCA/LGA is over and Frontier has filed its comments:

Interestingly, Frontier has made a similar argument to Southwest -- that the reduction in the number of slots to be divested seems to be unwarranted by the minimal changes in the competitive environment at the two airports.
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Wed Aug 31, 2011 10:21 pm

Quoting ScottB (Reply 82):
Interestingly, Frontier has made a similar argument to Southwest -- that the reduction in the number of slots to be divested seems to be unwarranted by the minimal changes in the competitive environment at the two airports.


  
I don't pretend to know all the in's and out's here, but it seems to me to be a fair argument to make.

On another matter, United is reducing flights at DEN for the fall/winter, although the airline denies that the hub is in trouble:

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_18784735?ST=1

"United Airlines is cutting its monthly flight schedules at Denver International Airport by as much as 13 percent for the remainder of the year. But the carrier — DIA's largest — said the pullback is not a sign that the Denver hub is in trouble."

mariner
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pilotfox
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:59 am

It looks like Republics new E190 N176HQ make its first flight on 8-23-11. I have yet to see any pictures yet.
 
bjorn14
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 10:46 am

Mariner,

Just FYI, I noticed one of your dream airports for F9....Logan (LGU).....isn't even a Part 139 airport.

B.
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:14 am

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 85):
Just FYI, I noticed one of your dream airports for F9....Logan (LGU).....isn't even a Part 139 airport.

Ahhhh - LGU isn't a dream airport of mine. I thought it was quite interesting, but I never knew too much about Logan.

At some point prior to the bk, it was strongly rumored that Frontier would start service DEN-LGU, probably with the Q400. I had a ton of emails from dickie birds chirping about it and it was in Wiki for some time, for what that's worth.

I only have two dream airports for Frontier now, in the US at least. Three outside the US.  

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
bjorn14
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 11:59 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 86):
I only have two dream airports for Frontier now, in the US at least. Three outside the US

What might those be? Remember Shurz and his minions watch this site closely and respect your opinion so pick carefully.  
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
kingcavalier
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:09 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 86):
I only have two dream airports for Frontier now, in the US at least. Three outside the US.

Is STS on your list? YZF? And if I had to guess one more I'd say a city in Venezuela?
Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness
 
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yellowtail
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:11 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 87):
What might those be? Remember Shurz and his minions watch this site closely and respect your opinion so pick carefully.  

Hi Daniel!    What you need is good vacation down here in BZE!
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
F9Animal
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:16 pm

This fall/winter will see some cuts in service, mainly out of MKE. While I am not jumping for joy, I am relieved to see this taking place!!!! I think many of us on here have speculated that MKE needs some changes, and it looks like BB and team are going to do just that. Nothing major, just improvements in my view.

I am glad to see our airline cutting costs, and not just by simply going after employee pay and benefits!   Bryan Bedford and team are showing real commitment to our airline, and I think he deserves a little praise for his efforts. Thanks BB and team!
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
kingcavalier
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 5:44 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 90):
This fall/winter will see some cuts in service, mainly out of MKE.

I'm hearing MKE - STL is getting cut. Do you know of any others?
Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 6:19 pm

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 88):
Is STS on your list? YZF? And if I had to guess one more I'd say a city in Venezuela?

Close, very close. STS, of course, and also CRP (from MCI or AUS). Outside the US:

(i) YXY - Saturdays, summer, going on to ANC. Or FAI, maybe.

(ii) CTG - 1 x weekly, from MCI or AUS.

(iii) PMV, which would have to be from TPA or MCO. Which couldn't happen until the bilateral changes.

Not to get excited - I don't expect any of them to happen, except maybe STS if it gets SCASD money.  

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 6:29 pm

Quoting kingcavalier (Reply 91):
I'm hearing MKE - STL is getting cut.

That's about the most sensible thing I've heard today - although it is still sparrow fart here. It was never a good route and with Southwest going mainline on it, I don't see the point of it.

But I suppose it will lead to another round of Southwest Triumphant posts and not a word said about the price of oil. Sigh.

mariner

[Edited 2011-09-02 11:34:17]
aeternum nauta
 
n917me
Posts: 518
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:28 pm

Looks like MKE will be getting cuts and frequency adjustments.. Not too good for MKE
Effective Oct. 4, we will discontinue Milwaukee-St. Louis service and implement additional day-of-week frequency reductions from Milwaukee to Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Des Moines, Flint, Grand Rapids, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Omaha and Pittsburgh.
 
bjorn14
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:49 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 92):
(ii) CTG - 1 x weekly, from MCI or AUS.

I love the CTG pick but BAQ might be better. Tag on route?

Quoting mariner (Reply 92):
Close, very close. STS, of course, and also CRP (from MCI or AUS).

I think DEN-CRP could work as seasonal; it's too close to AUS, people there just drive if they want beach action.

Quoting mariner (Reply 92):

(iii) PMV, which would have to be from TPA or MCO. Which couldn't happen until the bilateral changes.

When Chavez dies or gets the boot.

Quoting mariner (Reply 92):
(i) YXY - Saturdays, summer, going on to ANC.

Who has bigger traffic YXY or YZF? Maybe a tag on route?
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
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LAXintl
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 8:59 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 93):
But I suppose it will lead to another round of Southwest Triumphant posts and not a word said about the price of oil.

Well Southwest pays for oil also.

At the end of the day, its really that F9 has opted not to slug it out in the market. Good or bad, they folded and moved on.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
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mariner
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:06 pm

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 95):
I love the CTG pick but BAQ might be better. Tag on route?

I was listing my dreams - and dreams only sometimes come true. I love Cartagena and I wouldn't give you tuppence for Barranquilla.

But maybe it is because I had a good time at CTG.  
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 96):
Well Southwest pays for oil also.

Of course. I'm not sure of your point.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
bjorn14
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:19 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 97):
I wouldn't give you 'tuppence' for Barranquilla.

I'm going to believe you took the high road on this because in another meaning it's slang for a female anatomical part which I would take with gratitude.  
"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
 
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LAXintl
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RE: New Frontier/Republic #26

Fri Sep 02, 2011 9:29 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 97):
Of course. I'm not sure of your point.

My point is that oil effects everyone, and hiding behind it is too convenient an excuse.

For whatever reason F9 as with other airlines has opted not to compete in certain markets and fold their cards, and go onto other ventures.
Absolutely nothing wrong with such, its how markets work, but there is a winner and looser at the end, so in this case it might indeed be that SWA was too much which forced F9 to fold its cards.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California

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