|Quoting motif1 (Reply 136):|
Looking at the panoramic landscape photo (#8), can you tell me which way the airplane was traveling and how it impated the ground? Was it coming from the left?
On #8, which is this:
It's right to left... if it's left to right, U'd see an impact crater instead...
The impact basically ripped the airplane and spewing everything forward for quote some distance. I don't now the terrain there (never been there!), I suspect there's an area right of the photo which shows the ground contact marks. Photo #8 does however indicate some way of the likelihood the aircraft was powering up when the rear belly hitting terrain... and began to disintegrate.
That photo is taken facing EAST from the airport. The aircraft reported on ILS35... The location where the aircraft ended up is about 1-2NM east of the centerline... As per covered by:
Pics I put were from http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/medias-medi...tos/aviation/A11H0002/A11H0002.asp
Given the conditions at the time, with the wind favouring a landing for 17, I doubt that those guys were going for an ILS35T circling 17T... anyone wanting to do left pattern circling 17T would be nothing but crazy!
So, aircraft ended up where it was, realized it, and performed missed approach and hit terrain... consistent with someone at the airport reporting he heard sounds of a distant spooling up engine followed by thump... But how did it end up where it was?
I struggled to find the reasons until I started looking at different chart vendors... and found that:
NDB 350/RB is located along the runway centerline to the north at 1NM from threshold 17T.
LLZ35T 110.3/IRB is located along the runway 17T to the north at 850m from threshold 17T.
VOR 112.1/YRB is located at 1NM to the east and roughly abeam of threshold 17T.
Impact, I approximate occured at 1.1NM from runway centerline, and roughly 170deg T from YRB... A speculation somewhere on the internet has suspected that the aircraft was going towards the VOR... Sure, the location of the probable impact point can support this, but:
1. No Instrument Approach Procedures that are current use the VOR.
2. From the rough impact point to where the furthermost mostly unburnt large piece of the upper fuselage (not the tail) the straightline is about 300-315T... ironically, this line points roughly towards the the localizer, and NDB.
Unfortunately, no photos of impact point, so we can only guess where it is..
One way to get the path of the final moments of flight, we need to know if the aircraft flew over the town itself or not... If it did, then, well, it could be more or less "accurately guesstimated".
So, what the heck happened to it?
I personally suspect the aircraft somehow captured a False Localizer... which can happen if you're just outside the "normal lobe" for full course deflection without an OFF
flag, that is 35deg within 10NM, and 10deg between 10 to 18NM from the transmitter.
Now the final approach course is 347T... 35deg would mean that you can get a valid full deflection signal up to (167-35 = ) a bearing of 132T (312T inbound)
Once you're outside that, you can get false localizer centerlines... I seem to remember a case or two where being somewhere on 42-45deg offset from the course could produce the false localizer signal... And if I remember correctly, that is within the glideslope lateral lobe.
Now, what other beacons would one tune in? if you tune into the NDB (350/RB), along the false localizer line, you would get the RMI
/ADF needle pointing relatively straight up... (NDB is notoriously "wobbly" anyways).
If your VHF NAV2 Box is tuned to 112.1/YRB, the RMI2 needle would point to the right of center... which is the same if you're at the correct localizer course.
The only thing that would save them, is if they saw the heading on the HSI and RMI
to be incorrect... simple right? Well, they're in IMC, likely looking out in anticipation of breaking out of the fog, while taking snapshots of the instruments, which would focus on air data, and the stuff you'd be on the lookout for when you're far into an ILS approach... LLZ & GS
deviations. (what if someone missed checking the HSI heading when they captured the ILS?).
Well, the magnetic variation there is 28W... going on 347T would be 319Mag... now, their track, I approximate to be... 300-315T... if someone switched Mag/Tru switch without telling the other (intentionally or by accident)... well, you get the picture.
If this is what happened, when they broke out of the fog at 500ft ASL (Minima is 400ASL), well, it wouldn't be a pretty picture... at my approximate impact point, the terrain is about 490ft ASL... *sigh*
But, we're not the investigators... the above is just speculation. If true, I guess false localizers and glideslops are stil catching out the unwary, or even the wary!
The question now for me is, how the heck did they end up catching that? Something with the flight path they took to enter the vicinity of CYRB
? a 23T track from 100NM away towards CYRB
, would be about 37-40deg inbound on the vicinity of CYRB
... perhaps they did a short-cut entry into the ILS approach? I don't know the flying culture there (safe no doubts, but not error free, despite all the good training they get!), perhaps someone familiar with CYRB
could shed some light on this?