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shnoob940
Topic Author
Posts: 172
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2008 9:53 am

Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:25 pm

Hi everyone, just wondering, what are your opinions on SYD-ISA and return. Do you think it could be a profitable route (QF does it although you have to fly via BNE)

cheers
gibbo
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5084
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:56 pm

Quoting Shnoob940 (Thread starter):
Hi everyone, just wondering, what are your opinions on SYD-ISA and return. Do you think it could be a profitable route (QF does it although you have to fly via BNE)

Short answer - NO.

Its never been done AFAIK, even back in the Two Airline Policy days it was via BNE and I don't see anything has changed to make it possible.

Gemuser
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Flyingsottsman
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RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:01 pm

With the mining boom not just in WA but in QLD aswell they should at least try it. I am sure a SYD-ISA flight would work.
 
Ditzyboy
Posts: 299
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RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:27 pm

I wonder if Airnorth could make such a route work ex-ISA 2-3pw. With QFLink codeshare of course.
 
Lufthansa
Posts: 2638
Joined: Thu May 20, 1999 6:04 am

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Tue Aug 23, 2011 5:03 pm

My honest guess is it would eat into the BNE flight.

Not long after Ansett failed, Virgin actually started flying to ISA before QF did!
(it was an Ansett only destination, 1 daily A320 to BNE, plenty of mining towns
were exclusively served by Ansett for years, even back in the 70s)

Obviously QF smelled corporate accounts and demand for J class for mine managers etc
and at that point DJ hadn't set its network up to do things like handle connections.
QF came in and offered double daily service during the weekdays, which of course was
very popular with the locals given the amount of travel many of them are forced to do
as part of life in such a place. That effectively pushed virgin out.

If the market grew, say another few mines open up in the region increasing the demand
you 'might' see it, but right now most of the growth in FIFO operations is being handled to
Alliance direct to some of the near by minds, or places like nearby cloncurry, largely
to Townsville. Given that, if QF started direct Syd services, it risks undermining the very
profitable BNE flights, and any reduction in frequency would open the door for Virgin to enter
the market. That would be very bad news because that could erode corporate prices. Right now
the flight is timed to allow connection from Syd for the early bird, so its covered without additional risk.
but my guess is if the future more projects open, or if say Mary kathleen (closed down Uranium mine...)
ever were reopened then there would be probably a case for 2 or 3 737s a week to syd on days of key demand. prob
only monday and friday.
 
Gemuser
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RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Tue Aug 23, 2011 9:05 pm

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 4):
it was an Ansett only destination,

Not for very long. ISA was served by both AN & TN up to about the time of the QF merger, but always via BNE AFAIK.

Gemuser
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eaglefarm4
Posts: 447
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RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Tue Aug 23, 2011 9:38 pm

It used to be a 727 route by both carriers .Germuser is correct.
tourismman
 
Lufthansa
Posts: 2638
Joined: Thu May 20, 1999 6:04 am

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:49 pm

Quoting eaglefarm4 (Reply 6):
It used to be a 727 route by both carriers .Germuser is correct.

which is true i didnt go into enough detail there... actually to go back further there were even 727s
flying at one point to other capitals other than BNE but i was talking more post '2 airlines policy'...
should have made that a little clearer it was late.
 
mal787
Posts: 477
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2007 4:25 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:04 am

Quoting ditzyboy (Reply 3):
I wonder if Airnorth could make such a route work ex-ISA 2-3pw. With QFLink codeshare of course.

Airnorth currently have a Darwin-Isa-Goldcoast rotation twice a week (it gets me to work every week) the loads on all of the flights I have been on are at most 60-70% . A tag on to Sydney may work but not sure if pax want to spend 3+hours on the E170 from Mt Isa or 5+ including the Mt Isa stopover for Darwin pax. But if Airnorth can do it with a decent fare it may work for the mums & dads , just because Mt Isa is a mining town. not everybody is on mining wages, at the moment for a random date in September dep 24 return 30th the fare is $941.00 on QF via Brisbane.

mal787
BN2 Metro, 402,404, Conquest, king air, 707,727.200, 732,733,734,735,736,738,757,762,763,742,743,744, MD11, DC9,Westwind
 
thegeek
Posts: 1334
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:20 am

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 2:18 am

QF have no reason to fly it. It may work for DJ, perhaps 3pw on an E190. Given that QF can charge over $300 for the BNE-ISA sector, it seems that it is a good game to get in on. Airnorth are also in the same price bracket.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5084
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 2:47 am

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 7):
actually to go back further there were even 727s
flying at one point to other capitals other than BNE

Where, other than Darwin?

Gemuser
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rowan1mck
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:50 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 4:53 am

It depends a lot on the equipment, the timings and the number of services per week, and how well you market it. 3 a week E90 or similar sounds to me like about as far as it would go at the moment, but at least that would be something.
 
Lufthansa
Posts: 2638
Joined: Thu May 20, 1999 6:04 am

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 5:04 am

Well i knew about Darwin but I was under the impression there
was the odd melbourne and sydney service, but I was too young to remember!
 
shnoob940
Topic Author
Posts: 172
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2008 9:53 am

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 6:48 am

I reckon twice weekly for DJ on an E190 would be great. It is a pain to have to stop in BNE, and I can't say I am willing to pay $838 AUD to fly to ISA and back.
 
mal787
Posts: 477
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2007 4:25 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:47 am

Quoting Shnoob940 (Reply 13):
I can't say I am willing to pay $838 AUD to fly to ISA and back.

Why would you want to fly there anyway, if your not working there or a mine site nearby, or visiting family. Its not exactly a top tourist spot .

mal787
BN2 Metro, 402,404, Conquest, king air, 707,727.200, 732,733,734,735,736,738,757,762,763,742,743,744, MD11, DC9,Westwind
 
thegeek
Posts: 1334
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:20 am

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 8:09 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 1):
Short answer - NO.

Why so negative? Just because it hasn't been flown before doesn't mean there isn't a (highly) profitable market.
 
Lufthansa
Posts: 2638
Joined: Thu May 20, 1999 6:04 am

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 9:16 am

I believe one of the issues with ISA is the traffic is very tidal, which means that the popular directions need to be more expensive to make up for the lack of traffic in the reverse direction. Still its a very expensive route to fly. I have friends out there and go out there myself every now and then. I have one friend that it usually costs him 10K a year just going back and forward to brissy and its not like he's doing it every week.
 
mal787
Posts: 477
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2007 4:25 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 10:34 am

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 16):
I believe one of the issues with ISA is the traffic is very tidal, which means that the popular directions need to be more expensive to make up for the lack of traffic in the reverse direction

Common misconception. The mine site I work on and a lot of others in the area , fly a lot of staff in from southern ports, we have a lot that travel up from Melbourne Sydney and Adelaide on the direct QF services ( via Brisbane) instead of going via Townsville to get the company Alliance charter

mal787

[Edited 2011-08-24 04:03:44]
BN2 Metro, 402,404, Conquest, king air, 707,727.200, 732,733,734,735,736,738,757,762,763,742,743,744, MD11, DC9,Westwind
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5084
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 10:58 am

Quoting thegeek (Reply 15):
Why so negative? Just because it hasn't been flown before doesn't mean there isn't a (highly) profitable market.

Yes it does, unless something has changed significant way. If a market was not profitable under the two airline policy, it's not going to profitable today UNLESS the has been some major change within the market. AFAIK there has not been sufficient mining or tourist or anything expansion around ISA to justify a non stop to SYD or MEL.
Remember BNE is the state capital and major business centre for ISA, that also draws a lot of traffic.

Gemuser
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rowan1mck
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:50 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 12:36 pm

Quoting gemuser (Reply 18):
UNLESS the has been some major change within the market

Only the whole thing has changed... under two-airline policy there was no 'low cost' model as there is now. Qantas isn't, and Ansett wasn't, likely to be able to offer the low/attractive prices necessary to encourage the traffic AND still pull in a decent yield. That's exactly what Virgin Australia is about.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5084
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 12:54 pm

Quoting rowan1mck (Reply 19):
That's exactly what Virgin Australia is about.

Uhm, no its not, it's about making a profit, exactly the same as QF. And it's turning into a QF clone or at least imitator.

Gemuser
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
Ditzyboy
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Feb 28, 2008 5:15 am

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:18 pm

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 12):
Well i knew about Darwin but I was under the impression there
was the odd melbourne and sydney service,

I don't recall any non-stops, but there was Ansett's weekly CNS-ISA-AYQ-PER services up til the mid 90's, flown by F28s. There was also a weekly BNE-ISA-CNS BAe 146-200 rotation. IIRC, Australian had CNS-ISA-ASP 733 services post deregulation. I'm away on a trip, so can't check my timetables.

Prior to that Ansett had ASP-ISA-CNS-TSV-BNE-MEL services on 732s.
 
rowan1mck
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:50 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 9:55 pm

Quoting gemuser (Reply 20):
it's about making a profit

Yes, which it does by having a relatively low cost base which allows it to sell fares which are, generally, lower than other airlines while still getting a decent yield.
 
thegeek
Posts: 1334
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:20 am

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:07 pm

Quoting gemuser (Reply 18):
Yes it does, unless something has changed significant way. If a market was not profitable under the two airline policy, it's not going to profitable today UNLESS the has been some major change within the market. AFAIK there has not been sufficient mining or tourist or anything expansion around ISA to justify a non stop to SYD or MEL.
Remember BNE is the state capital and major business centre for ISA, that also draws a lot of traffic.

I disagree. If you had said that it had been tried and proved unprofitable, that would be one thing, but it seems it hasn't been tried. I don't see how you can write it off so easily. QF have been quite conservative historically. I'm sure you remember the posts about BNE-LAX only being started with the threat of SQ being allowed to fly it.

Regarding the two airlines days, back in those days if you wanted to fly between BNE and ADL you had to go via SYD or MEL. By your logic BNE-ADL flights would be unprofitable, unless I am missing something.

There's no incentive for QF to fly it because it would only cannibalise their BNE-ISA flight. Bit of a different kettle of fish for another airline.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5084
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:24 am

Quoting thegeek (Reply 23):
Regarding the two airlines days, back in those days if you wanted to fly between BNE and ADL you had to go via SYD or MEL. By your logic BNE-ADL flights would be unprofitable, unless I am missing something.

No, by my logic BNE-ADL flights would have been unprofitable in Two Airline policy days, which they were or they would have been operated. Now, things have changed. BNE/OOL, in particular has grown over the last 20 years both in absolute numbers and as a relative proportion of the total Australian population. I believe the same type of growth has NOT happened in the ISA market to cause an expectation that an non stop market to SYD/MEL has developed.

You do not have to "try" a market to have a reasonable idea of what will/will not work, in most cases, and it costs money to do that, sometimes a lot of money, you don't spend that money unless you have a reasonable expectation that it will be successful. There will be some marginal cases where "suck it see" applies, but IMHO ISA-SYD/MEL is not one of them.

Gemuser
DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
 
shnoob940
Topic Author
Posts: 172
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2008 9:53 am

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Thu Aug 25, 2011 2:21 am

Quoting mal787 (Reply 14):

I have always wanted to visit the region and fly the Skytrans Cobb & Co route.
BNE-TWB-CTL-ULP-WNR-BVI-BEU-BQL-ISA
And the rex 3 stop route, ISA-JCK-RCM-HGD-TSV.

Palmjet has a trip report about it: "888": 8hrs, 8 Segments On An Aussie Dash 8 (pics) (by Palmjet Apr 3 2011 in Trip Reports)

cheers
gibbo
 
thegeek
Posts: 1334
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:20 am

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:36 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 24):

No, by my logic BNE-ADL flights would have been unprofitable in Two Airline policy days, which they were or they would have been operated.

There is another possibility. That such flights would have been profitable but were not operated because without the competitor operating them, there was no reason to operate them as passengers still have no choice but to go via SYD or MEL on either airline.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 5084
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Thu Aug 25, 2011 4:49 am

Quoting thegeek (Reply 26):
That such flights would have been profitable but were not operated because without the competitor operating them, there was no reason to operate them as passengers still have no choice but to go via SYD or MEL on either airline.

Not quite right, IMHO. It is possible that both airlines agreed that it was MORE profitable to force pax to fly via SYD/MEL to ADL. To me that means that non stop BNE-ADL was unprofitable to the airlines. I think this applies to ISA-SYD/MEL today.

Don't under estimate the profit motive to BOTH AN & TN, just because it was a cosy duopoly.

Gemuser
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eaglefarm4
Posts: 447
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 10:33 pm

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:05 am

Under the 2 airline policy both carriers were happy to sit back on their laurels and not try anything too risky.They were making fat dollars just doing the basic routes.
Remember Flightwest originated BNE-CBR with Brasilias and then Ansett moved in.

Aviation has always been the same in Australia no services on a particular route until a new carrier commences, then you find all in, and the innovator has to pull out.
tourismman
 
thegeek
Posts: 1334
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:20 am

RE: Would SYD-ISA-SYD Be A Profitable Route?

Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:54 am

Quoting gemuser (Reply 27):
Don't under estimate the profit motive to BOTH AN & TN, just because it was a cosy duopoly.

That was exactly my point. The cosy duopoly would have prevented such a flight occurring rather than anyone attempting such a flight.

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