INSTRUCTIONS

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares what is for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Non-daily operations create fractional weekly service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. If a flight operated 5 days out of 7, it would show 0.8 flights.

WHY ARE THERE WEIRD FREQUENCIES IN FAR AWAY MONTHS FOR LCCs?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. Their schedules may also end mid-month. If B6 loads their schedule until Jan15, all flights in Janaury will show half frequency because of the way the report is created.

WHY IS A WHOLE AIRLINE'S SCHEDULE SHOWN AS CHANGING FOR A FUTURE MONTH?
Similarly to the previous question, some airlines load their schedule from nothing inside the 9 month window of this report. When their schedule is extended it will show as new service because there was no previous schedule to compare to. In some instances I will show a more valid comparison against another period.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE PINNACLE
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THE FREQUENCY DOESN'T SHOW A CHANGE, E.G. 4>4
This happens as a result of rounding. There is a change in service that is large enough to be listed, but through rounding it does not appear.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".



9E DVL-JMS DEC 0.7>0.4 JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.7>0
9E ESC-IMT JAN 0>0.7 FEB 0>0.8 MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7

9V MIA-BLA SEP 0.9>0.6

AA DFW-GRR DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 3>4 MAR 2>3 APR 2>3
AA DFW-GSP DEC 3>4 JAN 3>4 FEB 3>4 MAR 3>4
AA DFW-HOU DEC 7>8 JAN 7>8 FEB 7>8 MAR 7>8 APR 7>8
AA DFW-SAV DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 3>4 MAR 2>3 APR 2>3

AC SEA-YYC OCT 1.9>1.5

AD XJF-VCP SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>0.9

*AM BRO-MTY SEP 0.2>0.4 OCT 0>0.4 NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4 JAN 0>0.4 FEB 0>0.5 MAR 0>0.4 APR 0>0.4
AM JFK-MEX DEC 4>3 JAN 4>3
AM MCO-MEX OCT 1.5>1.6 DEC 1.6>1.8 FEB 1.6>1.3
AM ORD-MTY OCT 0.9>0.6

AS LAS-STS JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7
Christmas flights I bet
*AS LAX-ANC DEC 0>0.3
AS LAX-PVR DEC 1.0>1.2 JAN 1.0>1.1 FEB 1.0>1.2
AS LAX-SJD NOV 1.9>1.7 DEC 2>1.9 JAN 2>1.7 FEB 3>1.8
AS LAX-YVR FEB 5>4
AS PDX-LAX FEB 6>5
AS PDX-SFO FEB 6>5
AS PDX-SJC JAN 5>4 FEB 5>4
AS PDX-SNA JAN 4>3 FEB 5>3
AS PDX-YVR NOV 2>1.9
AS SEA-ANC DEC 12>13 JAN 12>13
AS SEA-DFW FEB 4>3
AS SEA-FAI FEB 4>3
*AS SEA-FAT JAN 2>0.9 FEB 3>0.8
AS SEA-LAS NOV 8>7 DEC 8>7 JAN 8>7 FEB 9>8
AS SEA-LAX NOV 11>10 DEC 11>10 JAN 11>9 FEB 12>10
AS SEA-LGB NOV 4>3 JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
*AS SEA-MCO JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>3
*AS SEA-MSP JAN 2>1.1 FEB 3>1.0
AS SEA-PDX NOV 22>20
AS SEA-SJC JAN 5>4 FEB 6>4
AS SEA-YLW FEB 3>4
AS SEA-YYC FEB 4>3

BR SFO-TPE SEP 1.5>1.3

Interesting
*BW MCO-KIN SEP 0>0.2 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3

CA LAX-PEK NOV 2>1.6 DEC 2>1.6 JAN 2>1.6 FEB 3>1.6 MAR 2>1.7

CI LAX-TPE MAR 1.9>1.8

CO EWR-HKG JAN 1.0>0.7
CO EWR-PEK JAN 1.0>0.9
CO EWR-PVG JAN 1.0>0.9
CO GUM-CNS JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3
CO IAH-MZT NOV 1.1>0.8
CO SEA-ANC NOV 2.0>3

This is a code share tag I suspect that is mis-coded in OAG
CX DFW-SFO NOV 0.9>0.4 DEC 1.8>0.8 JAN 1.9>0.9 FEB 0.5>0.3

Note that most of these changes are DEC only and probably are caused by Christmas adjustments.
DL ATL-AEX DEC 5>4
DL ATL-BHM NOV 11>10 DEC 11>9
DL ATL-BNA DEC 11>10
DL ATL-CAE DEC 10>9
DL ATL-CHA DEC 10>9
DL ATL-CHS DEC 11>10
DL ATL-CSG DEC 5>4
DL ATL-ECP DEC 8>7
DL ATL-EWR DEC 11>10
DL ATL-GPT DEC 6>5
DL ATL-GSP DEC 10>9
DL ATL-HPN DEC 7>6
DL ATL-HSV NOV 10>9 DEC 10>8
DL ATL-ILM DEC 7>6
DL ATL-LEX DEC 8>7
DL ATL-LIT DEC 9>8
DL ATL-MGM NOV 10>9 DEC 10>9
DL ATL-MHT DEC 2>1.4
DL ATL-MKE DEC 7>6
DL ATL-MYR DEC 4>5
DL ATL-ORD DEC 11>10
DL ATL-PLS MAR 0.8>1.0
DL ATL-PWM DEC 2>1.5
DL ATL-RDU DEC 12>11
DL ATL-RTB MAR 0.2>0.3
DL ATL-SAV DEC 10>9
DL ATL-SDF DEC 8>7
DL ATL-STT APR 1.2>3
*DL ATL-STX FEB 0.3>0.1 MAR 0.5>0.2
DL ATL-TRI DEC 9>8
DL ATL-XNA DEC 6>5
DL ATW-MSP DEC 5>4
DL AZO-MSP NOV 2.0>1.0 DEC 2>1.0 APR 1.8>1.0
DL BDL-MCO DEC 2>1.5
DL BOS-LHR OCT 1.9>1.7
Pittsburgh is not doing well lately.
*DL BOS-PIT NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0 JAN 3>0 FEB 3>0 MAR 3>0 APR 3>0
DL CMH-RDU DEC 1.5>0.7
DL CVG-ATL DEC 7>6 JAN 7>6 FEB 8>7 MAR 7>6 APR 7>6
DL CVG-BWI DEC 4>3
DL CVG-CLE DEC 1.9>1.4
*DL CVG-CUN DEC 0.2>0 JAN 0.1>0
DL CVG-EWR DEC 4>3
DL CVG-MDT DEC 1.9>1.4
DL CVG-ORD DEC 6>5
*DL CVG-SAN NOV 0.9>0.6 DEC 0.9>0.4 JAN 0.9>0.1 FEB 0.9>0.4
DL CVG-TPA DEC 2>1.4
DL CVG-XNA DEC 1.9>0.9
DL DCA-ATL NOV 15>14
DL DCA-CHS DEC 1.8>1.3
DL DCA-GRR DEC 0.8>0.5
DL DTW-ABE DEC 4>3
DL DTW-AVL DEC 2>1.0
DL DTW-AZO DEC 7>6
DL DTW-BGM DEC 3>1.8
DL DTW-BGR DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 3>1.5
DL DTW-BNA DEC 7>6
DL DTW-BTV DEC 4>3
DL DTW-BUF DEC 8>7
DL DTW-BWI DEC 6>5
DL DTW-CMH DEC 7>6
DL DTW-CVG DEC 7>6 JAN 7>5 FEB 7>6 MAR 6>5 APR 7>6
DL DTW-DAY DEC 4>3
DL DTW-DFW DEC 6>5
DL DTW-ERI DEC 4>3
DL DTW-FNT DEC 4>3
DL DTW-GSO DEC 4>3
DL DTW-GSP DEC 4>3
DL DTW-HPN DEC 4>3
DL DTW-ITH DEC 3>1.8
DL DTW-LEX DEC 6>5
DL DTW-LIT DEC 1.8>1.4
DL DTW-LSE DEC 2>0.5
DL DTW-MBS DEC 7>6
DL DTW-MDT DEC 5>4
DL DTW-MSN DEC 8>7
DL DTW-MSY DEC 1.9>1.4
DL DTW-OKC DEC 3>1.8
DL DTW-OMA DEC 4>3
DL DTW-ORD DEC 8>7
DL DTW-PVD DEC 6>5
DL DTW-RST DEC 1.3>0.9
DL DTW-STL DEC 6>5
DL DTW-TVC DEC 6>5
DL DTW-TYS DEC 4>3
DL DTW-YQB NOV 1.9>1.8
DL DTW-YYZ DEC 8>7
DL FLL-TLH DEC 0.9>0.4
DL FNT-MSP DEC 2>1.4
DL IAD-MSP DEC 4>3
DL JAX-MSP JAN 1.1>2
*DL JFK-BDL NOV 1.0>0.2 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0
DL JFK-BUF DEC 5>4
DL JFK-PIT DEC 5>4
DL JFK-RIC DEC 5>4
DL JFK-ROC DEC 4>3
DL JFK-YYZ DEC 4>3
DL LAX-CMH DEC 0.5>0.2
DL LAX-IND DEC 0.6>0.3
DL LAX-MSY DEC 1.8>1.3
DL LAX-RDU DEC 0.5>0.2
Wow, big temporary cut!
*DL LAX-SFO DEC 11>7 JAN 11>7 FEB 12>10
DL LGA-AVL DEC 1.0>0.5
Again, note these are likely Holiday cuts that averaged over the month seem large
DL LGA-BOS DEC 13>10
DL LGA-DCA DEC 13>10
DL LGA-ORD DEC 11>10
DL MBS-MSP NOV 2.0>1.1 DEC 2>1.0 JAN 2>1.0 FEB 3>1.0 MAR 2>1.0 APR 2>1.0
DL MEM-BOS DEC 3>1.9
DL MEM-BWI DEC 3>1.9
DL MEM-COU DEC 3>2
DL MKE-MSP NOV 7>6
DL MLI-MSP DEC 3>1.9
DL MSP-ANC NOV 1.2>1.0
DL MSP-OMA DEC 7>6
DL MSP-RIC DEC 1.0>0.5
*DL MSP-TVC NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
*DL MSP-TYS NOV 0.9>0.0 DEC 0.8>0 JAN 0.9>0 FEB 0.9>0
DL MSP-YQR NOV 2>1.9
DL MSP-YUL NOV 2.0>1.7 DEC 2>1.0
DL MSP-YWG DEC 6>5
DL MSP-YXE NOV 2>1.9
DL SLC-BNA DEC 1.0>0.5
DL SLC-BOI NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5 JAN 6>5 FEB 7>6 MAR 6>5 APR 7>5
DL SLC-EWR DEC 1.9>1.3
DL SLC-RAP DEC 2>1.4
DL SLC-YVR NOV 2.0>1.8

Weird??? Mistake?
**FL ATL-ACY JAN 0.4>2 FEB 0>3
*FL BWI-AUA DEC 0>0.2 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3

HA LAX-HNL DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3
*HA SEA-HNL DEC 1.5>1.3 JAN 1.5>1.0 FEB 1.5>1.0 MAR 1.4>1.0 APR 1.4>1.0

JQ HNL-SYD NOV 0.6>0.7 DEC 0.6>0.8 JAN 0.6>1.0 FEB 0.6>0.8

OZ LAS-SFO NOV 0.2>0.0
OZ LAX-SAN NOV 0.8>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0

SV IAD-RUH NOV 0.2>0.3 DEC 0.1>0.3 JAN 0.1>0.3 FEB 0.2>0.3 MAR 0.1>0.3
SV JFK-JED NOV 0.4>0.6 DEC 0.4>0.6 FEB 0.4>0.6

UA DEN-CUN JAN 1.0>0.6 FEB 1.0>0.8
Response to F9
*UA DEN-PSP DEC 3>4 JAN 2>4 FEB 3>5 MAR 2>4
UA DEN-PVR DEC 0.6>0.3
UA IAD-CUN JAN 1.0>0.6 FEB 1.0>0.8
UA LAS-PSP OCT 2>3
UA ORD-CUN JAN 3>1.1 FEB 3>1.6
UA ORD-HKG JAN 1.0>0.9
UA ORD-PEK JAN 1.0>0.8
UA ORD-PVG JAN 1.0>0.8
UA SFO-BOS SEP 6>5

UN JFK-DME OCT 0.7>0.5 NOV 0.7>0.4 DEC 0.7>0.4 FEB 0.3>0.5

US CLT-CDG APR 1.0>0.7
US PHL-AUA FEB 1.0>0.9 MAR 1.0>0.9 APR 1.0>0.9
*US PHL-FPO JAN 0>0.1 FEB 0>0.1 MAR 0>0.2 APR 0>0.1
US PHL-FRA APR 2>1.9
US PHL-GCM JAN 0.8>0.5 FEB 0.9>0.6 MAR 0.9>0.6 APR 0.9>0.6
US PHL-PLS JAN 0.9>0.5 FEB 1.1>0.7 MAR 1.2>0.7 APR 1.1>0.6
US PHL-PUJ DEC 1.2>1.6
US PHL-SJU JAN 5>4 FEB 5>4 MAR 5>4 APR 5>4
US PHL-STT JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7 MAR 1.0>0.7 APR 1.0>0.7
US PHL-SXM JAN 0.9>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.8 MAR 1.0>0.7 APR 1.0>0.7
US PHX-GDL FEB 4>3 MAR 3>2 APR 3>2

V2 FLL-FPO NOV 0.8>0.7 DEC 0.9>0.7 JAN 0.8>0.7 FEB 0.9>0.8 MAR 0.9>0.7 APR 0.9>0.7
V2 LIT-VPS NOV 0.4>0.0
V2 PIE-VPS SEP 0.6>0.4 OCT 0.6>0.4 DEC 0.6>0.4 JAN 0.6>0.4 MAR 0.6>0.4 APR 0.6>0.4
V2 SDF-VPS NOV 0.6>0.0
V2 SFB-VPS SEP 0.6>0.3 OCT 0.6>0.3 NOV 0.6>0.3 DEC 0.6>0.3 JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
V2 UTM-VPS SEP 0.4>0.3
VS JFK-LHR FEB 4>3

W2 BOS-KEF SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3

Y4 FAT-GDL NOV 1.0>0.3 DEC 1.0>0.3 JAN 1.0>0.3 FEB 1.0>0.3 MAR 1.0>0.3 APR 1.0>0.3
Y4 LAS-GDL SEP 1.1>1.3 OCT 1.0>1.3 NOV 1.0>0.4 DEC 1.0>0.4 JAN 1.0>0.5 FEB 1.0>0.4 MAR 1.0>0.4 APR 1.0>0.5
*Y4 LAS-MEX SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3
Y4 LAX-AGU NOV 0.3>0.1 DEC 0.3>0.1 JAN 0.3>0.2 FEB 0.3>0.1 MAR 0.3>0.1 APR 0.3>0.2
*Y4 LAX-GDL SEP 4>2 OCT 4>2 NOV 4>0.5 DEC 4>0.5 JAN 4>0.6 FEB 5>0.6 MAR 4>0.5 APR 4>0.7
*Y4 LAX-MEX SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3
Y4 LAX-MLM NOV 1.0>0.3 DEC 1.0>0.3 JAN 1.0>0.3 FEB 1.0>0.3 MAR 1.0>0.3 APR 1.0>0.3
*Y4 LAX-TLC SEP 0.6>0 OCT 0.6>0 NOV 0.5>0 DEC 0.6>0 JAN 0.5>0 FEB 0.6>0 MAR 0.6>0 APR 0.6>0
Y4 LAX-ZCL NOV 0.7>0.1 DEC 0.7>0.1 JAN 0.7>0.2 FEB 0.8>0.1 MAR 0.7>0.1 APR 0.7>0.2
Y4 MDW-GDL NOV 1.0>0.3 DEC 1.0>0.3 JAN 1.0>0.3 FEB 1.0>0.3 MAR 1.0>0.3 APR 1.0>0.3
*Y4 OAK-GDL SEP 2>1.7 OCT 2>1.6 NOV 2>0.5 DEC 2>0.5 JAN 2>0.6 FEB 3>0.6 MAR 2>0.5 APR 2>0.7
Y4 OAK-MEX NOV 0.5>0.3 DEC 0.6>0.3 JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
Y4 SAN-GDL SEP 1.0>0.8 OCT 0.5>0.7 NOV 0.6>0.3 DEC 0.5>0.3 JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3
Y4 SAN-MEX NOV 1.0>0.3 DEC 1.0>0.3 JAN 1.0>0.3 FEB 1.0>0.3 MAR 1.0>0.3 APR 1.0>0.3
Y4 SJC-GDL NOV 1.4>0.5 DEC 1.4>0.5 JAN 1.5>0.6 FEB 1.5>0.6 MAR 1.4>0.5 APR 1.5>0.7

ZK CNY-DEN MAR 0.6>1.3 APR 0>1.0
ZK CNY-PGA OCT 1.8>0.8 NOV 1.9>0.9 DEC 1.8>0.8 JAN 1.9>0.9 FEB 1.9>0.9 MAR 0.6>0.3
ZK DEN-LBL OCT 3>1.7 NOV 3>1.7 DEC 3>1.7 JAN 3>1.7 FEB 3>1.8 MAR 3>1.7 APR 3>1.7
*ZK LAS-PGA OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
*ZK LBL-PUB OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL CVG-SAN NOV 0.9>0.6 DEC 0.9>0.4 JAN 0.9>0.1 FEB 0.9>0.4

Interesting that they're not seasonally suspending the flight like they did last year despite the cut in flights.

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): **FL ATL-ACY JAN 0.4>2 FEB 0>3

Most likely a mistake, especially since ACY has never had 3x daily to ATL.... it is possible that subsidy money bacame available somehow, but I doubt it!!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): CO EWR-HKG JAN 1.0>0.7

Interesting considering CX's wishes to continue their expansion on JFK-HKG

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 2): Interesting that they're not seasonally suspending the flight like they did last year despite the cut in flights.

I did not realize that. Then it is still good news.

Quoting nkops (Reply 3): Most likely a mistake, especially since ACY has never had 3x daily to ATL.... it is possible that subsidy money bacame available somehow, but I doubt it!!

The service is still cancelled for March so it is odd. I suppose it is a filing error.

Quoting AA787 (Reply 4): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): CO EWR-HKG JAN 1.0>0.7 Interesting considering CX's wishes to continue their expansion on JFK-HKG

JAN is probably not the best month to judge the route's success.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): W2 BOS-KEF SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3

Who is W2?

With all due respect to the time spent doing this each week, I question how accurate the AS stuff is.

Going to three SEA-MCO flights daily? Going to less than one daily SEA-FAT all of a sudden?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL BOS-PIT NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0 JAN 3>0 FEB 3>0 MAR 3>0 APR 3>0

This was a dumb route DL should never have launched. It was doomed to fail.

Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 7): With all due respect to the time spent doing this each week, I question how accurate the AS stuff is. Going to three SEA-MCO flights daily? Going to less than one daily SEA-FAT all of a sudden?

If it isn't accurate, you should take it up with AS. I only show their submitted changes. I can see a second flight added in February on as.com, but not a 3rd. Also, note there is rounding involved, so they may have 2.5 flights or something like that.

[Edited 2011-08-24 12:55:11]

[Edited 2011-08-24 12:55:38]

*AS SEA-FAT JAN 2>0.9 FEB 3>0.8

Historically, AS runs 1X NS FAT-SEA and 1X FAT-PDX during this period by dropping the morning NS to SEA. WIth OO now in the mix and the need to route the CRJ 700 into FAT each night and back into rotation through SEA, the morning NS to SEA remains during the Jan/Feb 2012 period and the FAT-PDX now continues to SEA. The actual seats in the market are essentially status-quo.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA DFW-SAV DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 3>4 MAR 2>3 APR 2>3

  

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA DFW-GRR DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 3>4 MAR 2>3 APR 2>3

  

Nice to see a couple increases on these!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL DTW-OKC DEC 3>1.8

Surprises me. Seems like a big cut for a city of that size

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): SV IAD-RUH NOV 0.2>0.3 DEC 0.1>0.3 JAN 0.1>0.3 FEB 0.2>0.3 MAR 0.1>0.3

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): SV JFK-JED NOV 0.4>0.6 DEC 0.4>0.6 FEB 0.4>0.6

Very interesting and some nice increases there!

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): *ZK LBL-PUB OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0

Your asterisk is agreed upon by me...very odd route!

Quoting sw733 (Reply 11): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): AA DFW-GRR DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 3>4 MAR 2>3 APR 2>3 Nice to see a couple increases on these!

Seasonality seems odd for expansion, however.

Quoting sw733 (Reply 11): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL DTW-OKC DEC 3>1.8 Surprises me. Seems like a big cut for a city of that size

I'm guessing they are only running 1 rt during Christmas week and that is how it happens. Surprising it is that weak.

Quoting sw733 (Reply 11): Quoting enilria (Reply 1): *ZK LBL-PUB OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0 Your asterisk is agreed upon by me...very odd route!

Your tax dollars at work I'm sure.  

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): ZK DEN-LBL OCT 3>1.7 NOV 3>1.7 DEC 3>1.7 JAN 3>1.7 FEB 3>1.8 MAR 3>1.7 APR 3>1.7 ... *ZK LBL-PUB OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>1.0 DEC 0>1.0 JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0 MAR 0>1.0 APR 0>1.0

I would presume that they're just going to do one of the LBL flights as a tag-on from PUB. The O&D on that airport pair has got to be approaching one per decade.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): Pittsburgh is not doing well lately. *DL BOS-PIT NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0 JAN 3>0 FEB 3>0 MAR 3>0 APR 3>0

That's a tough market with US holding the long-time frequent flyer loyalty and B6 keeping yields down. It might have made sense in summer to feed LHR/CDG/AMS/FCO at BOS.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 13): The O&D on that airport pair has got to be approaching one per decade.

To repeat again with anguish...

Quoting enilria (Reply 12): Your tax dollars at work I'm sure.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 13): That's a tough market with US holding the long-time frequent flyer loyalty and B6 keeping yields down. It might have made sense in summer to feed LHR/CDG/AMS/FCO at BOS.

True, but they really added it for LHR based upon when it was announced. Lets hope that BOS-LHR is doing well enough that it no longer needs this unprofitable crutch. I suspect the reverse is true, however.

Y4 FAT-GDL NOV 1.0>0.3 DEC 1.0>0.3 JAN 1.0>0.3 FEB 1.0>0.3 MAR 1.0>0.3 APR 1.0>0.3
*Y4 OAK-GDL SEP 2>1.7 OCT 2>1.6 NOV 2>0.5 DEC 2>0.5 JAN 2>0.6 FEB 3>0.6 MAR 2>0.5 APR 2>0.7

Too much capacity into Northern California? Y4 is going to their original plan for FAT, which was less than daily service. AM and Y4 have done well this summer side by side at FAT since April, generating about 13,500 pax in July, but that's not going to continue this winter. The right move for Y4.

But, what's behind the dramatic drop at OAK? OAK-MEX is being cut back as well. Y4 seems to be cutting back in most California markets...

Quoting enilria (Reply 14): Lets hope that BOS-LHR is doing well enough that it no longer needs this unprofitable crutch. I suspect the reverse is true, however.

The issue with a route like BOS-LHR is that it was never likely to do well right out of the gate, particularly with the AA/BA oligopoly already in the city pair. They'd have to be willing to nurse it for years and commit to a BOS focus operation for feed and frequent flyer loyalty. And as I've said in another thread, AA is having difficulty filling BOS-LHR itself, what with BOS-LHR having shown up several times in the NetSAAvers this summer.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 16): And as I've said in another thread, AA is having difficulty filling BOS-LHR itself, what with BOS-LHR having shown up several times in the NetSAAvers this summer.

AA is not having difficulty filling BOSLHR. It was a frequent NetSAAver, just like MIALHR, because it is protecting it's market share against Delta. The MIALHR, BOSLHR and MCOLHR markets were bloodbaths this summer. Cheap fares all around.

Have the Delta cuts of all the EAS cities shown up here yet? I haven't been able to find any news about if DL backed off of that at all or came to terms with some cities. GLH still seems to be showing service but with CRJs.

The growing number of sub-daily domestic frequencies for DL seem almost counter-intuitive, and are certainly growing especially at CVG. As a business traveler, I would find that pretty difficult to work with. I can easily understand the logic on international routes, but do we think this strategy really works for domestic service?

Quoting breaker1011 (Reply 19): The growing number of sub-daily domestic frequencies for DL seem almost counter-intuitive, and are certainly growing especially at CVG. As a business traveler, I would find that pretty difficult to work with. I can easily understand the logic on international routes, but do we think this strategy really works for domestic service?

Travel falls off the cliff around X-Mas time. With the way this is computed, you won't know for sure what the actual schedule is unless you go into their PDF and look at each route separately over the course of 30 days.

I wouldn't read too much into it.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL BOS-LHR OCT 1.9>1.7 Pittsburgh is not doing well lately. *DL BOS-PIT NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0 JAN 3>0 FEB 3>0 MAR 3>0 APR 3>0

I've heard we're going to see another couple changes in the next few weeks with Boston. A new route, perhaps? Seasonal adjustments? Hopefully something exciting!

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 18): Have the Delta cuts of all the EAS cities shown up here yet? I haven't been able to find any news about if DL backed off of that at all or came to terms with some cities. GLH still seems to be showing service but with CRJs.

No, DL has not cut and of the EAS service yet. Essentially what they did was give the DOT the 90-day notice last month in July. What that means is that DL gave the DOT notice that they could solicit bids for a new carrier to begin service within a 90 day period. DL cannot drop the service under its own decision. DL can only end service if the DOT selects another carrier (or DL again) through the bidding process.

In the event no bids are received, the DOT doesn't select another carrier, or the new carrier doesn't start service in that period, DL will continue to receive payment for the service based on this:

"The EAS program was created to ensure small communities continue to have access to passenger air service. In some cases, airline service in EAS markets is subsidized by the government. The Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 provides that if a carrier is held in beyond the 90-day notice period, it is entitled to receive compensation "to pay for the fully allocated actual cost to the carrier of performing the ...service ... plus a reasonable return on investment that is at least 5 percent of operating costs; and to provide the carrier an additional return that recognizes the demonstrated additional lost profits from opportunities foregone [by continuing to be held in and providing service]."
http://news.delta.com/index.php?s=43&item=1408

So, DL will continue to operate until the DOT selects a new carrier. The EAS routes fell into 4 categories:

1) Markets where DL is requesting a subsidy where service is currently unsubsidized but is being requested to now support CRJ service
2) Markets where DL is currently subsidized and plans to re-bid requesting a higher subsidy to cover the cost of CRJ service
3) Markets that DL is not going to submit a bid (plans to drop), where Great Lakes is planning to submit a bid (and will have some type of codeshare arrangement with DL)
4) Markets that DL is not going to submit a bid (plans to drop)

Until the bids are submitted and selected, DL is going to be operating status-quo.

Now what and how the government plans to run the EAS program is other matter.

Quoting breaker1011 (Reply 19): The growing number of sub-daily domestic frequencies for DL seem almost counter-intuitive, and are certainly growing especially at CVG. As a business traveler, I would find that pretty difficult to work with. I can easily understand the logic on international routes, but do we think this strategy really works for domestic service?

Quoting breaker1011 (Reply 19): Travel falls off the cliff around X-Mas time. With the way this is computed, you won't know for sure what the actual schedule is unless you go into their PDF and look at each route separately over the course of 30 days. I wouldn't read too much into it.

Based on the way Enilria creates this report, you can't easily determine frequencies per day, particularly during the holiday months. DL has become quite aggressive on adjusting frequencies and capacity based on the day of the week. DL and CO do a lot of this, AA to a lesser extent. What you see with the decimal places often is where they run less frequencies on the weekend, typically on Saturday afternoon/evening & Sunday morning.

DL now is quite aggresive at adjusting capacity during the holiday season. Taking a page from NW, they essentially shut down the airline on 1) Thanksgiving afternoon/evening - Friday morning 2) Christmas Eve afternoon - Christmas morning 3) New Years eve evening - New Years morning. During these times DL only operates a skeleton schedule - primarily only the primary mainline domestic & international routes. Demand during these short periods abruptly falls off a cliff. In addition, during Thanksgiving week and the two weeks around Christmas & New Years DL (like other airlines) operate a holiday schedule which generally decreases capacity and reduces frequency in traditional business markets, and in some cases adds capacity and frequency into leisure markets.

To the average business traveler that does DTW-LGA, ATL-ORD, CVG-BDL they may notice no difference on their weekly commute. What they don't see is the fewer flights on Saturdays or the day after Thanksgiving when they are comfortably at home.

[Edited 2011-08-24 19:54:17]

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): OZ LAX-SAN

Do I read this correctly? Asiana doing LAX-SAN? Would someone else be operating this flight?

Quoting C767P (Reply 23): Do I read this correctly? Asiana doing LAX-SAN? Would someone else be operating this flight?

Many of these carriers seem to have difficulties or make filing errors when it comes to code-shares. 100% certain it is not actually their flight/metal.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 16): And as I've said in another thread, AA is having difficulty filling BOS-LHR itself, what with BOS-LHR having shown up several times in the NetSAAvers this summer.

You are one of the few people who understand that fire sales indicate a poorly performing route. So many people on here do not get that simple fact. When the pricing/revenue management people sit around in a room and decide what to email blast or advertise they don't say "Hey, what's doing really well that we can totally wreck with a 50% off sale?" No, they say, "OK, what needs triage? What is bleeding on bookings that we need to fix?"

Quoting SouthernDC9 (Reply 18): Have the Delta cuts of all the EAS cities shown up here yet? I haven't been able to find any news about if DL backed off of that at all or came to terms with some cities. GLH still seems to be showing service but with CRJs.

That's going to be a long process and in most cases I'd say is a bit a gamble by Delta to simply get in on sucking on the taxpayer teat.

Quoting FURUREFA (Reply 21): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL BOS-LHR OCT 1.9>1.7 Pittsburgh is not doing well lately. *DL BOS-PIT NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0 JAN 3>0 FEB 3>0 MAR 3>0 APR 3>0 I've heard we're going to see another couple changes in the next few weeks with Boston. A new route, perhaps? Seasonal adjustments? Hopefully something exciting!

A smart move might be replacing the recently dropped AA* Canada service.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 22): Based on the way Enilria creates this report

The problem really is that the airlines have different schedules every week, not just in December. 9 of the 12 months have significant inter-month demand changes that the airlines now respond to with capacity changes and nearly every month has a Holiday. The bottom line is that a change in the schedule is a change regardless...and if it says the flight operated .6 times in December then it operates ~18 times. That's a fact. God knows what days it is canceled as every week it can be different.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 20): Travel falls off the cliff around X-Mas time. With the way this is computed, you won't know for sure what the actual schedule is unless you go into their PDF and look at each route separately over the course of 30 days.

Exactly, that is way too complex to try to provide in a report. Consider this report a bookmark and if you want more detail that is an excellent way to dig into it.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 22): What you see with the decimal places often is where they run less frequencies on the weekend, typically on Saturday afternoon/evening & Sunday morning.

Only sometimes. I have seen a 50 departure variation at some of the Delta hubs comparing Friday to Tuesday in some months.

Quoting enilria (Reply 25): The problem really is that the airlines have different schedules every week, not just in December. 9 of the 12 months have significant inter-month demand changes that the airlines now respond to with capacity changes and nearly every month has a Holiday. The bottom line is that a change in the schedule is a change regardless...and if it says the flight operated .6 times in December then it operates ~18 times. That's a fact. God knows what days it is canceled as every week it can be different.

Yep. Not your problem, but that is just how it is now. They'll add and subtract flights for whatever they need to do. It seems like May, July, and maybe September is about the only stable months where flights are generally consistent week to week. within that month. Most of the rest of the months have signfiicant schedule changes throughout.

Quoting enilria (Reply 25): You are one of the few people who understand that fire sales indicate a poorly performing route.

Not when a a strong competitor enters one of your strong markets.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *AM BRO-MTY SEP 0.2>0.4 OCT 0>0.4 NOV 0>0.4 DEC 0>0.4 JAN 0>0.4 FEB 0>0.5 MAR 0>0.4 APR 0>0.4

One of the few upsides/opportunities from the drug war violence (for airlines), I suppose...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): Christmas flights I bet *AS LAX-ANC DEC 0>0.3

Interesting... Has AS offered such flights before?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *AS SEA-FAT JAN 2>0.9 FEB 3>0.8

Well, at least the service continues, and it appears PDX-FAT is still intact. So, question is - what got cut? QX's Q400, or OO's CR7? For the route's own sake, I would hope the turboprop was dropped in favor of the jet!

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *AS SEA-MCO JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>3 *AS SEA-MSP JAN 2>1.1 FEB 3>1.0

Probably just a routine seasonal change. MCO is far more attractive destination than MSP in the dead of winter, although the business pax probably won't be pleased with such a limited schedule between SEA and MSP...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): Interesting *BW MCO-KIN SEP 0>0.2 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3

Well, BW just launched a seasonal (summer) MCO-POS route this year. This route provides them an excellent way to maintain a year-round presence to MCO; I assume it will be a through flight to POS or at least offer seamless connections in both directions.

Still, given all their purported successes in the Jamaican market, I would have expected B6 to add this route before anybody else...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): CA LAX-PEK NOV 2>1.6 DEC 2>1.6 JAN 2>1.6 FEB 3>1.6 MAR 2>1.7

Hmmmm...doesn't look like that new second daily flight was really warranted. They may have been better off keeping their [westbound] redeye schedule that is very typical among Asian carriers, while codesharing with Star Alliance partner UA on a [westbound] daylight schedule that most often flown by U.S. carriers. UA's superior product and seamless connectivity would probably have been far more attractive than a beyond-security terminal transfer (for all connecting pax) and a very poor CA product...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): CO GUM-CNS JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3

Uh oh...I hope this unique route isn't struggling/on the chopping block. I would hate to see it meet the same fate of GUM-DPS and GUM-NAN .

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL ATL-STX FEB 0.3>0.1 MAR 0.5>0.2

And so, another small Caribbean market goes to a negligible frequency (and then fails) from ATL. AA seems to have a lock on this one (mainline from MIA, Eagle from SJU), and ever-popular B6's splashy debut in December will probably get just about everybody else...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): Pittsburgh is not doing well lately. *DL BOS-PIT NOV 3>0 DEC 3>0 JAN 3>0 FEB 3>0 MAR 3>0 APR 3>0

It may not necessarily be PIT's fault, though. I daresay DL's recent build-ups at BOS and MIA are more or less reminiscent of their largely unsuccessful attempts at growth in various other focus city and secondary hub markets, i.e. LAX, MCO, FLL, SLC, etc.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL CVG-CUN DEC 0.2>0 JAN 0.1>0

I believe this route is now down to a token frequency over the February-March spring break period. Pretty incredible that DL is willing to serve CUN throughout the entire winter (on Saturdays only, of course) from various spokes, but not what - for now - remains a [dying] hub...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL CVG-SAN NOV 0.9>0.6 DEC 0.9>0.4 JAN 0.9>0.1 FEB 0.9>0.4

Well, SAN is indeed a seasonal market. Winters there are quite chilly, summer is the time of year to visit. That said, West Coast service from CVG is now down to the key markets of SEA, SFO, and LAX. I can't imagine service to the SAN spoke continuing for much longer, now that the likes of PDX and SNA are long gone...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL JFK-BDL NOV 1.0>0.2 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 MAR 1.0>0 APR 1.0>0

So BDL will no longer be linked to the all-important global gateway of JFK? It really wasn't all that long ago that AA was flying this route with a daily 738, and now nothing! I realize that the pending slot swap means DL will assume the LGA-BDL route currently operated by US, and UA/CO will still serve their EWR hub, but it is still surprising that there isn't enough demand for seamless connections to Florida, the West Coast, Caribbean, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Not to mention all the interline possibilities. Now, does it continue from May forward? A seasonal one there during the peak transatlantic travel period?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL LAX-CMH DEC 0.5>0.2 DL LAX-IND DEC 0.6>0.3 DL LAX-MSY DEC 1.8>1.3 DL LAX-RDU DEC 0.5>0.2

Looks like most of the domestic mainline mainland spokes take a pretty hefty cut. I'm still quite skeptical about this whole DL thing at LAX. We've got UA and AA, then WN and VX, with DL apparently only doing well to its hubs and a few random scraps nobody else cares about. The likes of BDL and JAX outright failed, while these seem to hanging by a thread...

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): Wow, big temporary cut! *DL LAX-SFO DEC 11>7 JAN 11>7 FEB 12>10

Well, I have to imagine that DL is the weakest one on the route. It is a full-fledged hub-hub route for UA and VX, while AA ties in to a major cornerstone LAX hub (and still has a decent FF base in the Bay Area) and WN links together throngs of FFers that reside in both the Bay Area and Greater Los Angeles, not to mention all the connections available beyond the LAX "hub". DL has a spoke at SFO and a struggling focus city at LAX. Not a lost cause, but surely the worst situation of the bunch.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL MSP-TVC NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 *DL MSP-TYS NOV 0.9>0.0 DEC 0.8>0 JAN 0.9>0 FEB 0.9>0

Seasonal cuts, perhaps?

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): Weird??? Mistake? **FL ATL-ACY JAN 0.4>2 FEB 0>3

Well one thing is for sure - they aren't planning to keep ACY going. FL was only there because of a subsidy arrangement (soon to expire) anyways. Maybe the airport can buy itself some more NK service, possibly even bring F9 and/or B6 in...

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): *FL BWI-AUA DEC 0>0.2 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3

An exciting new route! I imagine BWI could become quite the impressive Caribbean gateway when this merger is all said and done. Even as the combined network has been drastically pruned, the international stuff continues to grow!

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): *HA SEA-HNL DEC 1.5>1.3 JAN 1.5>1.0 FEB 1.5>1.0 MAR 1.4>1.0 APR 1.4>1.0

Wow, I guess AS is really killing them on this route.

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): Response to F9 *UA DEN-PSP DEC 3>4 JAN 2>4 FEB 3>5 MAR 2>4

What type of aircraft will be flown on this, though? If the choice is between a UAX CRJ and a "mainline" F9 bird, the choice is obvious to me...

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): *US PHL-FPO JAN 0>0.1 FEB 0>0.1 MAR 0>0.2 APR 0>0.1

An interesting addition that bucks the general trend of reductions in the PHL-Caribbean realm. I would imagine a subsidy/revenue guarantee is in play  .

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): W2 BOS-KEF SEP 0>0.3 OCT 0>0.3

Hmmmm...would this be Iceland Express extending their seasonal flights?

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): Y4 FAT-GDL NOV 1.0>0.3 DEC 1.0>0.3 JAN 1.0>0.3 FEB 1.0>0.3 MAR 1.0>0.3 APR 1.0>0.3

I knew all this FAT-Mexico service was unsustainable. It appears AM won this battle, and I wonder if AM adding GDL-SFO and GDL-SMF has scared Y4 off of those routes?

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): Y4 LAS-GDL SEP 1.1>1.3 OCT 1.0>1.3 NOV 1.0>0.4 DEC 1.0>0.4 JAN 1.0>0.5 FEB 1.0>0.4 MAR 1.0>0.4 APR 1.0>0.5 *Y4 LAS-MEX SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3

I was under the impression that LAS routes were doing well. These cuts seem pretty drastic to me.

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): Y4 LAX-AGU NOV 0.3>0.1 DEC 0.3>0.1 JAN 0.3>0.2 FEB 0.3>0.1 MAR 0.3>0.1 APR 0.3>0.2 *Y4 LAX-GDL SEP 4>2 OCT 4>2 NOV 4>0.5 DEC 4>0.5 JAN 4>0.6 FEB 5>0.6 MAR 4>0.5 APR 4>0.7 *Y4 LAX-MEX SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3 Y4 LAX-MLM NOV 1.0>0.3 DEC 1.0>0.3 JAN 1.0>0.3 FEB 1.0>0.3 MAR 1.0>0.3 APR 1.0>0.3 *Y4 LAX-TLC SEP 0.6>0 OCT 0.6>0 NOV 0.5>0 DEC 0.6>0 JAN 0.5>0 FEB 0.6>0 MAR 0.6>0 APR 0.6>0 Y4 LAX-ZCL NOV 0.7>0.1 DEC 0.7>0.1 JAN 0.7>0.2 FEB 0.8>0.1 MAR 0.7>0.1 APR 0.7>0.2

It was said that Y4 would drop LAX-TLC in favor of adding LAX-MEX, but are they really reducing everything from LAX?? Unless they are really short of planes, this seems like a very drastic move..

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): Y4 MDW-GDL NOV 1.0>0.3 DEC 1.0>0.3 JAN 1.0>0.3 FEB 1.0>0.3 MAR 1.0>0.3 APR 1.0>0.3

MDW cut too? I guess this doesn't bode well for the possibility of service from MDW to other Mexican markets...

Quoting enilria (Reply 1): *Y4 OAK-GDL SEP 2>1.7 OCT 2>1.6 NOV 2>0.5 DEC 2>0.5 JAN 2>0.6 FEB 3>0.6 MAR 2>0.5 APR 2>0.7 Y4 OAK-MEX NOV 0.5>0.3 DEC 0.6>0.3 JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.6>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3 Y4 SAN-GDL SEP 1.0>0.8 OCT 0.5>0.7 NOV 0.6>0.3 DEC 0.5>0.3 JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 APR 0.6>0.3 Y4 SAN-MEX NOV 1.0>0.3 DEC 1.0>0.3 JAN 1.0>0.3 FEB 1.0>0.3 MAR 1.0>0.3 APR 1.0>0.3 Y4 SJC-GDL NOV 1.4>0.5 DEC 1.4>0.5 JAN 1.5>0.6 FEB 1.5>0.6 MAR 1.4>0.5 APR 1.5>0.7

Again, I'm confused here. It seems EVERY single one of Y4's U.S. routes has been dramatically reduced. Is this a filing error, an acute aircraft shortage, a sign of severe network/profitability problems, or...?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): 9E DVL-JMS DEC 0.7>0.4 JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.7>0 9E ESC-IMT JAN 0>0.7 FEB 0>0.8 MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7

Was there a reason why these 2 were broken out from the rest of the DL listings? Just curious...

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 22): Taking a page from NW, they essentially shut down the airline on 1) Thanksgiving afternoon/evening - Friday morning 2) Christmas Eve afternoon - Christmas morning 3) New Years eve evening - New Years morning.

A great move on NW's part (for a lot of different reasons), and I'm glad to see it continue.

Sigh. One week I'm going to open this post and see "AA MIA - AUS 0.0 > 2.0" Until then, it will remain AUS-CLT-Caribbean for me.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL LAX-CMH DEC 0.5>0.2 DL LAX-IND DEC 0.6>0.3 DL LAX-MSY DEC 1.8>1.3 DL LAX-RDU DEC 0.5>0.2 Looks like most of the domestic mainline mainland spokes take a pretty hefty cut. I'm still quite skeptical about this whole DL thing at LAX. We've got UA and AA, then WN and VX, with DL apparently only doing well to its hubs and a few random scraps nobody else cares about. The likes of BDL and JAX outright failed, while these seem to hanging by a thread...

You cannot make that assumption from this data, particularly when looking at the month of December. Again, based on the way this report is aggregated, you cannot see the actual frequencies on a daily basis.

The schedule for the month of December is highly tuned to respond to the cyclical nature of the business.
-Thanksgiving week has heavy leisure travel and very minimal business travel, with demand dropping off a cliff for about a 24 hour period from midday on Thanksgiving through middayy on Black Friday.
- Business travel is much lighter than normal in the weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas - people like to home during the holiday season, travel budgets may be exhausted, minimal if any conventions / conferences
- Leisure travel is extremely minimal during the 2-3 weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas
- Business travel is non-existant over the holidays, leisure travel spikes in many key markets during the holidays

Example, when looking at the month as a whole:
MSY-LAX: 1x 11/1-11/19, 2x 11/20-11/23, 1x 11/24-11/25, 2x 11/26-11/30, 1x 12/1-12/17, 2x 12/18-12/23, 1x 12/24-12/25, 2x 12/26-12/30, 1x 12/31, 2x 1/1-1/30

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL MSP-TVC NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.0>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0 *DL MSP-TYS NOV 0.9>0.0 DEC 0.8>0 JAN 0.9>0 FEB 0.9>0 Seasonal cuts, perhaps?

MSP-TVC is a seasonal reduction, it was 3x daily over the summer including a daily A319

MSP-TYS more or less existed for maintenance purposes since 9E does heavy maintenance in TYS.

Quoting enilria (Reply 25): A smart move might be replacing the recently dropped AA* Canada service.

Let me just say that while the loads on BOS-YYZ aren't great, the yields are absolutely fantastic. And DL knows that.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 22): Until the bids are submitted and selected, DL is going to be operating status-quo.

Quoting enilria (Reply 25): That's going to be a long process and in most cases I'd say is a bit a gamble by Delta to simply get in on sucking on the taxpayer teat.

Perfect, thanks for the info!

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): MDW cut too? I guess this doesn't bode well for the possibility of service from MDW to other Mexican markets...

MDWGDL should be able to support a carrier with a sensible cost structure. TZ kept it around until the very end, IIRC.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28):

5W is Iceland Express but it must be them. They were already flying through October but they go to 2 flights per week from 4 come September 5th

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *AS SEA-FAT JAN 2>0.9 FEB 3>0.8 Well, at least the service continues, and it appears PDX-FAT is still intact. So, question is - what got cut? QX's Q400, or OO's CR7? For the route's own sake, I would hope the turboprop was dropped in favor of the jet!

The evening Q was cut for the usual Jan/Feb period and returns in the spring as always. The morning CRJ700 is X3 and X6. As I'd noted earlier, the mid-day to PDX is now a 1-stop to SEA.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Quoting enilria (Reply 1): Y4 FAT-GDL NOV 1.0>0.3 DEC 1.0>0.3 JAN 1.0>0.3 FEB 1.0>0.3 MAR 1.0>0.3 APR 1.0>0.3 I knew all this FAT-Mexico service was unsustainable. It appears AM won this battle, and I wonder if AM adding GDL-SFO and GDL-SMF has scared Y4 off of those routes?

Y4 was running an 83% LF and AM a 96% based upon the last month's numbers - comes out to about the same # of pax per flight. Y4 is pulling back throughout the US, which may be a filing error. But, I'd expected Y4 to return to 4X per week as originally planned. Y4 has been showing 4X per week for the winter for some months now.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): And so, another small Caribbean market goes to a negligible frequency (and then fails) from ATL. AA seems to have a lock on this one (mainline from MIA, Eagle from SJU), and ever-popular B6's splashy debut in December will probably get just about everybody else...

This is not new for DL and STX. The service has been on today off the next day since the station re-opened around 2006? with Mon-Wed-Sat 738 service. After a while, service dropped to an ASA CR7, then back to an MD88 then down to a Shuttle America 170 then to a Pinnacle CR9 and back and forth between an 88/175/CR9.

Even through the summer when STT saw 2x daily 757s from ATL Sun-Fri and 2x 757 and 1x 73G from ATL and 1x 757 from JFK on Sat, STX was only 3x weekly.

I wouldn't call it a fail because it hasn't been daily since the days of ATL-STT-STX-ATL. DL seems to be happy with Sat only and less than daily service. If they weren't they would have closed the station years ago.

Quoting nwaesc (Reply 29): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): 9E DVL-JMS DEC 0.7>0.4 JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.7>0 9E ESC-IMT JAN 0>0.7 FEB 0>0.8 MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7 Was there a reason why these 2 were broken out from the rest of the DL listings? Just curious...

These are 9E and not DL. Here's what I suspect is the scoop on that.

To keep their code “current”, code-share regionals often slap their own code onto a single flight someplace. If they don’t do this there is danger the code may become dormant and be assigned to someone else.

They don’t want to sell any seats under their own code, so they put their own code, co-branded with their major airline partner, onto a single out-of-the way flight where it is very likely nobody books. A route like DVL-JMS ….or ESC-IMT….is a great candidate. Virtually nobody books a local DVL-JMS or ESC-IMT ticket, and if they did, DL* is the airline they would find willing to sell them a ticket.

Apparently Pinnacle has used DVL-JMS awhile to have an out-of-the-way tag flight bearing the 9E standard. In January the DVL-JMS flight will no longer carry the token 9E co-branding. But in January one of the ESC-IMT flights flown as DL* will start to carry the token 9E co-branding. Why would they change this? Well, Devils Lake and Jamestown are two of the communities that Great Lakes is working to assume EAS flying for. So they should be among the first EAS markets that Delta gets to pull out of. (Okay, knowing ZK’s track record I wouldn’t bet the farm on this.) Escanaba is a city Delta plans to bid to continue serving, and while Iron Mountain is not (unless they have changed their minds) the timeline for Delta being able to drop IMT is less certain. So they are planning to get out of DVL and JMS first, and picked ESC-IMT as another out-of-the way place to put their token presence of 9E in for now.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 26): maybe September is about the only stable months

Actually not even that, there is usually a pre and post Labor Day downward shift.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27): Quoting enilria (Reply 25): You are one of the few people who understand that fire sales indicate a poorly performing route. Not when a a strong competitor enters one of your strong markets.

I think we are saying the same thing. In that case, if there is no deadly drop in bookings, then an airline isn't going to devote resources to fight a competitor with a fire sale or email blast. They are only going to respond if they see a large impact. You might argue that a competitive incursion will always cause a dramatic impact, but airlines must prioritize. Not every market being attacked is having a promoted sale. The list of promoted "fire sales" is actually pretty short. They pick their battles.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *AS SEA-MCO JAN 1.0>1.9 FEB 1.0>3 *AS SEA-MSP JAN 2>1.1 FEB 3>1.0 Probably just a routine seasonal change. MCO is far more attractive destination than MSP in the dead of winter, although the business pax probably won't be pleased with such a limited schedule between SEA and MSP...

The only thing I question is that AS's February schedules look screwy. I'm not sure why. It could be a glitch having to do with leap year, but I have looked at the raw data from OAG and it appears to be filed that way.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): Interesting *BW MCO-KIN SEP 0>0.2 OCT 0>0.3 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3 Well, BW just launched a seasonal (summer) MCO-POS route this year. This route provides them an excellent way to maintain a year-round presence to MCO; I assume it will be a through flight to POS or at least offer seamless connections in both directions. Still, given all their purported successes in the Jamaican market, I would have expected B6 to add this route before anybody else...

I question whether KIN is wealthy enough to fill a flight to Mouse-ville and Jamaicans are actually not that big an ethnic group in MCO. It is mostly Puerto Ricans in terms of immigrants.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): CO GUM-CNS JAN 0.6>0.3 FEB 0.6>0.3 MAR 0.5>0.3 Uh oh...I hope this unique route isn't struggling/on the chopping block. I would hate to see it meet the same fate of GUM-DPS and GUM-NAN .

I'm not certain of the seasonality, but I'd think this is a great time of the year in CNS.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL ATL-STX FEB 0.3>0.1 MAR 0.5>0.2 And so, another small Caribbean market goes to a negligible frequency

STX has been largely a fuel stop over the years for STT. It appears it is quickly losing a lot of its service even in peak.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): I daresay DL's recent build-ups at BOS and MIA are more or less reminiscent of their largely unsuccessful attempts at growth in various other focus city and secondary hub markets, i.e. LAX, MCO, FLL, SLC, etc.

True. MCI is next? There will be many changes when this slot swap happens.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Pretty incredible that DL is willing to serve CUN throughout the entire winter (on Saturdays only, of course) from various spokes, but not what - for now - remains a [dying] hub...

I agree. How do you fly RDU-CUN and not be able to make CVG-CUN work? OTOH, most of those other CUN routes have been cut way back too, but they were never hubs.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): So BDL will no longer be linked to the all-important global gateway of JFK? It really wasn't all that long ago that AA was flying this route with a daily 738, and now nothing! I realize that the pending slot swap means DL will assume the LGA-BDL route currently operated by US, and UA/CO will still serve their EWR hub, but it is still surprising that there isn't enough demand for seamless connections to Florida, the West Coast, Caribbean, Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Not to mention all the interline possibilities. Now, does it continue from May forward? A seasonal one there during the peak transatlantic travel period?

So is there no service BDL-JFK? How do you get to Europe? drive to BOS? Don't they have one RT to AMS? I wonder if that is the culprit?

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL LAX-CMH DEC 0.5>0.2 DL LAX-IND DEC 0.6>0.3 DL LAX-MSY DEC 1.8>1.3 DL LAX-RDU DEC 0.5>0.2 Looks like most of the domestic mainline mainland spokes take a pretty hefty cut.

I suspect these routes are completely shut down for the Holiday week.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): DL has a spoke at SFO and a struggling focus city at LAX. Not a lost cause, but surely the worst situation of the bunch.

DL is the patron saint of lost causes. I wonder how much they have lost in LAX-SFO? I do admire their willingness to compete.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Quoting enilria (Reply 1): *FL BWI-AUA DEC 0>0.2 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 An exciting new route! I imagine BWI could become quite the impressive Caribbean gateway when this merger is all said and done. Even as the combined network has been drastically pruned, the international stuff continues to grow!

I think this route is very meaningful. I think it shows that WN was honest in saying that they intend to grow international service. There have been other route related decisions where they were less than honest, but this lends an air of credibility to their much delayed int'l plans. It also signals a willingness to keep open less than daily or seasonal stations that are outside the USA.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Quoting enilria (Reply 1): *HA SEA-HNL DEC 1.5>1.3 JAN 1.5>1.0 FEB 1.5>1.0 MAR 1.4>1.0 APR 1.4>1.0 Wow, I guess AS is really killing them on this route.

It used to be one big happy family with AS, HA, and NW.  

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Quoting enilria (Reply 1): Response to F9 *UA DEN-PSP DEC 3>4 JAN 2>4 FEB 3>5 MAR 2>4 What type of aircraft will be flown on this, though? If the choice is between a UAX CRJ and a "mainline" F9 bird, the choice is obvious to me...

It will remain on CRJ eqp.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): I knew all this FAT-Mexico service was unsustainable. It appears AM won this battle, and I wonder if AM adding GDL-SFO and GDL-SMF has scared Y4 off of those routes?

FAT is no surprise.

Quoting WhatUsaid (Reply 36): Y4 is pulling back throughout the US, which may be a filing error.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Quoting enilria (Reply 1): Y4 LAS-GDL SEP 1.1>1.3 OCT 1.0>1.3 NOV 1.0>0.4 DEC 1.0>0.4 JAN 1.0>0.5 FEB 1.0>0.4 MAR 1.0>0.4 APR 1.0>0.5 *Y4 LAS-MEX SEP 0>1.0 OCT 0>1.0 NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3 MAR 0>0.3 APR 0>0.3 I was under the impression that LAS routes were doing well. These cuts seem pretty drastic to me.

You misread LAS-MEX. Y4 is increasing service in that route.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Again, I'm confused here. It seems EVERY single one of Y4's U.S. routes has been dramatically reduced.

Could be a mistake. We'll see next week.

Quoting nwaesc (Reply 29): Quoting enilria (Thread starter): 9E DVL-JMS DEC 0.7>0.4 JAN 0.7>0 FEB 0.8>0 MAR 0.7>0 APR 0.7>0 9E ESC-IMT JAN 0>0.7 FEB 0>0.8 MAR 0>0.7 APR 0>0.7 Was there a reason why these 2 were broken out from the rest of the DL listings? Just curious...

These two are not marketed as DL flights in OAG. What it may be is that they use these flights to keep the 9E code active. There used to be a rule that a carrier had to routinely use its two letter code on some flight or lose it. I assume that is still in place.

Quoting FURUREFA (Reply 32): Quoting enilria (Reply 25): A smart move might be replacing the recently dropped AA* Canada service. Let me just say that while the loads on BOS-YYZ aren't great, the yields are absolutely fantastic. And DL knows that.

Since it appears AA* dropped that route as a result of contract issues and not profits, it would make sense for DL to grab it.

Quoting enilria (Reply 39): Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): Pretty incredible that DL is willing to serve CUN throughout the entire winter (on Saturdays only, of course) from various spokes, but not what - for now - remains a [dying] hub... I agree. How do you fly RDU-CUN and not be able to make CVG-CUN work? OTOH, most of those other CUN routes have been cut way back too, but they were never hubs.

AFAIK CUN usually only ever was a Saturday route, but U5 is also on CVG-CUN, perhaps they're having an impact?

Quoting enilria (Reply 39): STX has been largely a fuel stop over the years for STT. It appears it is quickly losing a lot of its service even in peak.

Some years ago, yes but not since the RWY in STT was extended to 7,000ft Before, they would fly direct to STT from Atlanta, carry local pax between STT and STX, pick up more pax in STX along with fuel and head back to ATL. As to the second part, i'm not too sure what they're doing this year is any different from 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, and 2006..

Quoting enilria (Reply 39): I suspect these routes are completely shut down for the Holiday week.

Exactly.

Quoting enilria (Reply 39): It used to be one big happy family with AS, HA, and NW.

Seems like the "family" is still quite cozy. It was nice to finally pick up the code-share for those intra HI 717 routes. Not quite sure what the climate is between AS and HA right now. Not to mention all the handling DL does for AS in ATL and EWR for example. I know it doesn't mean much, but it says a lot that they are the only carrier to operate out of one of their concourses in ATL (B).

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 41): I know it doesn't mean much, but it says a lot that they are the only carrier to operate out of one of their concourses in ATL (B).

Since when does HA serve ATL?

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 40): AFAIK CUN usually only ever was a Saturday route, but U5 is also on CVG-CUN, perhaps they're having an impact?

Referring to past Januarys...In 2009 and 2010 DL had 15 ops in January. They had 5 last year and 0 this year. Seems like a downward trend. Last March they flew it 17 times. This March they plan 5.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 41): As to the second part, i'm not too sure what they're doing this year is any different from 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, and 2006..

In March 2010 DL had 2620 seats and daily service to STX. For March 2011 they had 1188 seats and 9 ops. For March 2012 they plan 710 seats and just 5 operations.
So, while you are not too sure. I am sure. It is a huge drop.

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 41): Seems like the "family" is still quite cozy. It was nice to finally pick up the code-share for those intra HI 717 routes. Not quite sure what the climate is between AS and HA right now. Not to mention all the handling DL does for AS in ATL and EWR for example. I know it doesn't mean much, but it says a lot that they are the only carrier to operate out of one of their concourses in ATL (B).

I think it's fair to say the kids speak to the parent, but do not any longer get along with each other. AS has majorly attacked HA's bread and butter markets.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 28): It may not necessarily be PIT's fault, though. I daresay DL's recent build-ups at BOS and MIA are more or less reminiscent of their largely unsuccessful attempts at growth in various other focus city and secondary hub markets, i.e. LAX, MCO, FLL, SLC, etc.

Nobody is blaming PIT. They have seen some service dropped by WN and now DL. And I'm not sure what you're referring to in the second part of your post. DL is pretty successful in SLC (it is a hub).

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 22): What you see with the decimal places often is where they run less frequencies on the weekend, typically on Saturday afternoon/evening & Sunday morning.

I retrieved the data to prove my point that the days of just cancelling on the weekends are in the rearview mirror.

For the week of September 12-18, 2011
Delta departures variation by day from ATL; The peak level of departures is oddly on Thursday that week (979).

Monday
- 8 dpts not operated
Tuesday
- 70 dpts not operated
Wednesday
- 52 dpts not operated
Thursday
- Maximum schedule
Friday
- 7 dpts not operated
Saturday
- 197 dpts not operated
Sunday
- 41 dpts not operated

Tuesday's cut is nearly twice the reduction seen on Sunday, although Saturday remains the hardest hit.

Let's look at July 11-17 for comparison. Peak level of ops was 1019 on Friday which is the day I would expect as the peak day. Also of note, the base schedule is 40 departures lower in September vs. July even before you get to day of week adjustments.

Monday
- 2 dpts not operated (all weekdays see much smoother ops levels)
Tuesday
- 11 dpts not operated
Wednesday
- 8 dpts not operated
Thursday
- 6 dpts not operated
Friday
- Maximum schedule
Saturday
- 122 dpts not operated (much smaller than September)
Sunday
- 41 dpts not operated (same size cut as September)

Quoting FURUREFA (Reply 32): Let me just say that while the loads on BOS-YYZ aren't great, the yields are absolutely fantastic. And DL knows that.

Might be a better use of B6 as they grow a true BOS hub.

Quoting Delta2ual (Reply 44): Nobody is blaming PIT. They have seen some service dropped by WN and now DL.

DL flying PIT-BOS was dumb to begin with, BUT I think the population of PIT deserves some blame for not supporting PIT-PHL on WN. The fares will now skyrocket. I hope they enjoy driving now.

Quoting DTW.SCE" class="quote" target="_blank">PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 22): 3) Markets that DL is not going to submit a bid (plans to drop), where Great Lakes is planning to submit a bid (and will have some type of codeshare arrangement with DL)

Anybody know specifically which EAS markets Great Lakes is planning to submit a bid for? I would guess they are all around MSP. Delta has indicated they will puruse EAS subisidy for some markets including Escanaba, Waterloo, Sioux Falls, Bemidji, Hibbing and International Falls. I wonder if ZK will bid for all the other ones in the MSP web? I doubt they'd set up shop in DTW just for Alpena (for example) but who knows.