SkyWest, Inc. Looking To Rejuvenate Fleet

Goldenshield · Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:10 pm

According to this report from the Airfinance Journal, it looks like SkyWest, Inc., is currently planning a large order to replace a large portion of its fleet (both (Notso)Surejet, and SkyWest) which may or may not include the MRJ and RRJ.

The article can be read here, but registration is required:

http://www.airfinancejournal.com/Art...lans-large-regional-jet-order.html

geg2rap · Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:30 pm

This is one of the issues I am very curious about in the next 5-10 years in the US RJ market, what will replace all of the 50 seaters.
I don't think MRJ, RRJ, or Embraer are offering a 50 seater??
WIll all the 50 seaters be replaced by 70 seaters?
Will have to wait and see.
Good for Skywest though, they have a very large 50 seat fleet, time to think of what's next

cslusarc · Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:54 pm

In the long term I expect SkyWest and ASA/ExpressJet to lose half of their fleet as 50-seat CRJ-100/200s and ERJ-145s are retired. They could handle some more 66-seat CRJ-700s and 76-seat jet CRJ-900s without major scope clause revisions at their Network airline partners. I see a better future if SkyWest can order 86-seat jets like the CRJ-1000s, SSJ 100-95LR or MRJ 90LR . They could even order the 98-seat Comac ARJ21-900 or 100-seat Bombardier CS-100ER for additional capacity.

FlyASAGuy2005 · Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:42 am

Quoting cslusarc (Reply 2):
They could handle some more 66-seat CRJ-700s and 76-seat jet CRJ-900s without major scope clause revisions at their Network airline partners.

Trust me when I say that this isn't true. With all the additional flying that DL required of their regional partners (all the QX birds going to OO and EV, the 170s coming onboard with Compass and Shuttle America, the additional CR9 flying for EV back in 2008 along with the 16 shiney Atlanta based CR9s operated by Pinnacle) DL has maxed out their share of large RJs allowed by the DALPA scope clause.

I can't speak for UA but UAX is going to be in a world of hurt here shortly because both sides (CO/UA) have said they will not relax scope. I can tell you right now that if they do, those 735s will be gone in short order and that's not something they are willing to do at this point without more similar sized a/c coming on property.

I'm not sure how this will all play out but over the next 10 years, there will need to be big changes in how connection programs work. There's no real 50 seater replacement at the moment and I don't see anyone allowing scope to be loosened any further than it is already; allowing more large RJs in.

AvSafety46 · Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:21 am

I see all 200/145/700 segments under 400-500 miles go to the Q400 or ATR and the rest of the RJ go to the 700/900 next gen. We will have to wait and see what happens with the scope at the new UA. I am not sure if there is a limit for TP in the scope now or will they limit the numbers and size. We could see a 90 seat Q or ATR in UAX in the future. Any flight over 1.5-2.0 hours is too long in a regional aircraft.

PlanesNTrains · Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:42 am

At what point do we see 100-120 seaters return to mainline carriers in a big way? Scope appears to be holding currently, so if the 50 seaters are on their way out, and 70 and 90 seaters are limited, at some point there must be a financial benefit by a mainline carrier to pay mainline employees to fly a mainline 100-seater.

Unless the regionals know something I don't (likely), I would think they'd be very nervous looking out 10 years.

-Dave

bhmdiversion · Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:30 pm

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 3):
Trust me when I say that this isn't true. With all the additional flying that DL required of their regional partners (all the QX birds going to OO and EV, the 170s coming onboard with Compass and Shuttle America, the additional CR9 flying for EV back in 2008 along with the 16 shiney Atlanta based CR9s operated by Pinnacle) DL has maxed out their share of large RJs allowed by the DALPA scope clause.

Remember, Pinnacle outright owns the 16 900s based in ATL...

MNMncrcnwjr · Thu Aug 25, 2011 12:39 pm

What is with the Sky West livery CRJs that are parking on the A & C concourses in MSP? is SkyWest adding flights and short DL connection livery birds?

AA787 · Thu Aug 25, 2011 5:59 pm

Anyone have access to a full article?

FlyASAGuy2005 · Thu Aug 25, 2011 6:25 pm

Quoting bhmdiversion (Reply 6):
Remember, Pinnacle outright owns the 16 900s based in ATL...

I know. The point is they are counted against Delta's 76 seat max.

ASA owns all their 700s save for the ones from QX and the "CA" frames that are actually being transfered to GoJet in 2012. However, it doesn't matter. DL cannot add any more a/c above 50 seats to the DCI program.

BMIFlyer · Thu Aug 25, 2011 9:04 pm

Quoting MNMncrcnwjr (Reply 7):
What is with the Sky West livery CRJs that are parking on the A & C concourses in MSP? is SkyWest adding flights and short DL connection livery birds?

No, Skywest have quite a lot of birds in their house colours. The good thing about this is the ability to shift them from one Express carrier to another without any need to repaint. Plus, it advertises the carrier too.

I believe Great Lakes have some birds in their own colour scheme as well for the same reason.

TVNWZ · Thu Aug 25, 2011 9:36 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 5):
At what point do we see 100-120 seaters return to mainline carriers in a big way? Scope appears to be holding currently, so if the 50 seaters are on their way out, and 70 and 90 seaters are limited, at some point there must be a financial benefit by a mainline carrier to pay mainline employees to fly a mainline 100-seater.

This will happen when the unions agree to a pay rate similar to the regional pay rate for these aircraft. Only way.

FRNT787 · Fri Aug 26, 2011 12:23 am

Quoting BMIFlyer (Reply 10):
I believe Great Lakes have some birds in their own colour scheme as well for the same reason.

All of Great Lakes' aircraft are in their own livery now (they have a few variations). They dont do any "United Express/Connection" flying anymore, it is all Great Lakes with codeshares with Frontier and United.

Republic Airways Holdings also has some E170s in house colors.

icebird757 · Fri Aug 26, 2011 6:56 am

I heard that DL will be replacing the single CRJ900 flight with an A319 on the SLC-LGB route soon. Can anyone verify this and when will it start?

skyrat · Fri Aug 26, 2011 3:55 pm

I'm sure Jerry and the boys in SGU have something up their sleeves. I'm just afraid they have way too much 50 seat flying and this is going come back and bite them. I'd like to see something like what republic is doing. Maybe order the C-series and fly under their own name, but keep the regional flying as long as they can. Just a thought

PSU.DTW.SCE · Fri Aug 26, 2011 4:20 pm

Quoting Icebird757 (Reply 13):
I heard that DL will be replacing the single CRJ900 flight with an A319 on the SLC-LGB route soon. Can anyone verify this and when will it start?

Yes, effective 11/6 SLC-LGB gets a daily A319 in addition to the OO CR7s.

pylon101 · Fri Aug 26, 2011 4:21 pm

SkyWest gave life to Embraer with its order for Embraer-120 Brasilia back then.
I think it would be great to keep this unique tradition of bringing a new brand to the outer world.
As a Russian I would prefer them to give this chance to SSJ. It can easily be downscaled to 70 seater, if needed.

enilria · Fri Aug 26, 2011 4:32 pm

Quoting GEG2RAP (Reply 1):
what will replace all of the 50 seaters.

Unless the economics change a lot, there probably is no sizable market for 50 seat jets long term.

lightsaber · Fri Aug 26, 2011 4:38 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Thread starter):
which may or may not include the MRJ and RRJ.

I personally bet the RRJ is for negotiation purposes only.

Quoting GEG2RAP (Reply 1):
what will replace all of the 50 seaters.

Beer can.

Now to be serious:
Or turboprops. At today's oil prices (heck, anything over $50), a turboprop makes far more sense than a 50 seat RJ.

I see as many 70/90 seat RJs displacing 50 seat RJs as scope clauses allow. As noted:

Quoting enilria (Reply 17):
Unless the economics change a lot, there probably is no sizable market for 50 seat jets long term.

The market is probably twice the size it should be. As DL and UA/CO consolodate, it is removing hubs that were homes to the 50 seaters. Unless oil drops to $40/bbl, I see the types fading away.

Quoting AvSafety46 (Reply 4):
I see all 200/145/700 segments under 400-500 miles go to the Q400 or ATR and the rest of the RJ go to the 700/900 next gen.

Except instead of 700/900 next gen, we already have the MRJ coming.

Lightsaber

as739x · Fri Aug 26, 2011 5:25 pm

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 18):

Ding, ding, ding:
"Now to be serious:
Or turboprops. At today's oil prices (heck, anything over $50), a turboprop makes far more sense than a 50 seat RJ".

Stay tuned, but you are on the right track here......

EnviroTO · Sat Aug 27, 2011 4:18 am

The MRJ is definitely going to be an issue for Bombardier unless they get GTF engines on their CRJs. I wonder what the effort of such an endeavor would be considering fuselage mounts.

Goldenshield · Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:56 pm

Quoting EnviroTO (Reply 20):
The MRJ is definitely going to be an issue for Bombardier unless they get GTF engines on their CRJs. I wonder what the effort of such an endeavor would be considering fuselage mounts.

Plus, the MRJ is only slightly larger than the CRJ-900, which SkyWest already operates, but there's a snag on the MTOW limition for their DL contract.

mrskyguy · Sat Aug 27, 2011 4:25 pm

It's far from "new" news that Bomba has been shopping it's jets to SkyWest for some time.. problem is, SkyWest is actually doing pretty darn well with its current operation. In fact, unlike most CRJ-200 operators, SkyWest has actually grown the fleet in support of their contracts.. and they are still turning a profit on these high CASM jets (relative to their larger -700 and -900 cousins).

A smart SkyWest sits it out for a while longer to watch how the regional market is going to play out over the next 36 months with the spin-off of Eagle and the final completed merger between UAL and COA. After all, they just "bought" themselves the largest fleet of ERJ's in the world when they picked up ExpressJet.

pylon101 · Sat Aug 27, 2011 6:33 pm

Aeroflot put both SSJ-100-95B on Moscow - St.Peterburg route. Which is 1 hour 25 min.
I believe that SkyWest pax deserve better than flying in CRJ

mrskyguy · Sat Aug 27, 2011 7:20 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 23):
I believe that SkyWest pax deserve better than flying in CRJ

Why? Most of those CRJ's are paid for.. I'll bet that's not the case for Aeroflop's SSJs..

pylon101 · Sat Aug 27, 2011 7:28 pm

I thought we were talking about SkyWest plans - and what they will need.
Having flown DL CRJ-900 from ATL to Billings - I used avoid CRJ/ERJ - as they were not designed for humans IMHO

)

Goldenshield · Sat Aug 27, 2011 7:56 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 25):
Having flown DL CRJ-900 from ATL to Billings - I used avoid CRJ/ERJ - as they were not designed for humans IMHO

Odd, since many humans have no problem using them.

PlanesNTrains · Sat Aug 27, 2011 9:19 pm

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 26):
Quoting pylon101 (Reply 25):
Having flown DL CRJ-900 from ATL to Billings - I used avoid CRJ/ERJ - as they were not designed for humans IMHO

Odd, since many humans have no problem using them.

And some of us actually enjoy them.

-Dave

akelley728 · Sat Aug 27, 2011 9:37 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 27):
And some of us actually enjoy them.

Especially the 1 seat side on the ERJ.

PlanesNTrains · Sat Aug 27, 2011 9:52 pm

Quoting akelley728 (Reply 28):
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 27):
And some of us actually enjoy them.

Especially the 1 seat side on the ERJ.

Well, I was referring more to the larger CRJ variants, but the broader point is that not everyone is disgusted with the ride. For many, it's that, drive, or don't go.

-Dave

AvSafety46 · Sun Sep 04, 2011 5:35 am

It looks like the Q400 and the ATR are getting a good look at now. With the uncertainty of the scope clause at UA/CO.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...est-to-study-large-turboprops.html

cbphoto · Sun Sep 04, 2011 5:19 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 5):
At what point do we see 100-120 seaters return to mainline carriers in a big way? Scope appears to be holding currently, so if the 50 seaters are on their way out, and 70 and 90 seaters are limited, at some point there must be a financial benefit by a mainline carrier to pay mainline employees to fly a mainline 100-seater.

Strong rumors going around UAL is that there is talks of them looking to open up an EMB-170/190 training program! Whether there is any truth to it or not, I don't know, but I suspect the answer to your question is sooner rather then later! When the pilot shortages hit the nation, the major airlines are going to the scrambling to fill vacancies and 95% of those vacancies will be filled by regionals! Combine that with the very small number of pilots in training today and that leaves the regional industry in a very tight spot. I say look to the majors starting to take control of there markets again by flying the 70-120 seat aircraft in house!

Quoting AvSafety46 (Reply 30):
It looks like the Q400 and the ATR are getting a good look at now. With the uncertainty of the scope clause at UA/CO

The Q400 has been rumored at OO for a while now and honestly I can see it being a good fit! With oil settled and most likely going no where but up in the future, the consolidation of airlines and the reduction of route overlap, as well as most pilot groups holding firm on scope, I think the large props could be the wave of the future! The one big thing that could initially stunt the large (capacity) prop growth in this country, is the backwards thinking of the general public. Props are old and unsafe (not that Colgan helped that image) and if the general public can overcome that thinking, then we could see a large scale return of turbo-props!

CIDFlyer · Sun Sep 04, 2011 6:33 pm

how many people (other than the one's on this forum) though will view larger turbo props as being a downgrade from jet service? We have had years now of the regional jets in our system (I personally like the ERJ, dont care so much for the CRJ though but its quicker than the Saabs I used to take), and many smaller regional airports can tout that they have "all jet service). My hope is that if turbo props do make a comeback that mainine jet service or larger RJ service supplement the turbo prop flights.

lightsaber · Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:55 am

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 32):
how many people (other than the one's on this forum) though will view larger turbo props as being a downgrade from jet service?

My rational and well educated sister started her own office as her previous job required weekly turboprop flights and that made her too nervous. Something about 'engine containment' soothes passenger worries.

I do not know the fraction of the population that view turboprops as a downgrade. I only know of one person who refuses to fly on anything with a propeller who will fly jets; I do know several who will not fly... Interesting stories of ship (freighter or sail) transport around the world. But I do know enough people who prefer jets and many of those are frequent fliers whose dollars will impact the airlines. But again, I cannot estimate the RASM impact with any precision. Does anyone have a link?

Lightsaber

cbphoto · Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:36 am

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 32):
how many people (other than the one's on this forum) though will view larger turbo props as being a downgrade from jet service?

Lots...and I see it everyday in my job! Granted I fly a small turboprop, compared to the Qs and ATRs, but still some people are terrified that they are flying on a small (non-jet) plane! I also get a lot of, "this must be a really old plane, since it has props on it" comments! In general, the flying public in this country does not like props! However, with some really creative advertising, you can convince the general public of anything! I will say, Horizon seems to do a pretty good job of making the prop plane seem....classy?